Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[Mathdino]

FIRRRRRRRST

VOTE: T-Bone
Because dinosaurs eat bones.

[Mathdino]

lol i was right about to vote pine before i read that we had an ic this game xD

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Mathdino

Because dinosaurs eat... rope?

That was clever.
That was really clever xD

[Mathdino]

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

I feel bad saying this but we should lynch a corner.

If mafia take the centre, as they undoubtedly will, we get much more control of the board taking a corner than taking a side.

If we don't end up with scum D1, consider the following (hypothetical):
1. We lynch the scummiest corner (let's say it's T-Bone).
2. Mafia kill Pine or they have an IC surviving to D2 making it easier to catch scum.
3. We lynch opposite corner, RedCoyote.
4. Mafia are forced to kill a corner, say they kill me. (there are now 5 players, this is banking on both scum not being on the sides)
5. We lynch Equinox. Scum kill Kaboose or Scripten.
6. We lynch the other and win.

The chances of this failing (due to both scum being on sides) is 6/28, or 3/14. Since I know I'm town, for me the chances are 6/21, or 3/7.

Combined with actual scumhunting, I like those odds.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Mathdino

Because dinosaurs eat... rope?

That was clever.
That was really clever xD

I've literally been waiting for this since the beginning of Jurassic Park Mafia.

Did you know Pine was center square when you almost voted him? Or was it just seeing him in the playerlist?

Just seeing him, decided to vote CONFSCUM. Then I read the rules.

[Mathdino]

That's exactly what I hate about TTT actually. Far prefer Ultimate Tic Tac Toe.

Here's a visualisation of my strategy for those of you who hate setup spec (tsk tsk tsk).

Blue is lynches, Orange is kills.

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

[Mathdino]

Center square isn't necessary to win a game so I wouldn't count on scum autolynching Pine, especially if his reads are off.

Actually, this is crazy WIFOM so please disregard. Math is right; scum will probably hit conftown/center square. No need to really setup spec any more than this. Anyone who doesn't follow, read this: How to never lose at tic tac toe (but not how to always win)

Yeah, see, winning at TTT is altered when certain squares can't be hit and one square is more likely to be hit. Pine being killed grants us an auto win unless we end up not being able to lynch scum. And even if he's not killed N1, we still autowin in every instance where scum don't shoot the opposite corner of the person we lynch.

And if they do that, we can just scumhunt to victory and ignore the setup.

[Mathdino]

Correct, from my perspective, 3/7 of the time this won't work due to losing in LyLo.

As such, we can always completely abandon this and just find the scumteam.

Also I lol'd when I checked the wiki page. Micro 115, the first time this setup was played, town could've auto won after lynching scum D1 and mafia killing a side xD
The issue is, in order to autowin, they'd have been forced to lynch the centre, which is probably something people got cold feet about.

[Mathdino]

I feel like something's wrong when 11/14 times the setup is completely and entirely broken.

I'm going to recommend they don't run this setup anymore.

[Mathdino]

Oh.

Fuck.

Any suggestions?

[Mathdino]

OOH
New idea.

1|2|3
_____
4|5|6
_____
7|8|9

We lynch the person opposite the towniest corner (while scumhunting normally of course, this is just for the actual lynch).
Mafia presumably kills the centre.
T|2|3
_____
4|M|5
_____
6|7|8

Since lynching the opposite corner obviously fails (ty Kaboose), we assume the scumteam is not {5, 7, 8} and look at pairs {2,3} and {4,6}.
Whichever pair is more likely to flip scum, we lynch in that pair. Scum will then be forced to kill the other to avoid town autowinning EVEN IF ONE IS SCUM.
If it turns out right, we either bag scum by N2 or we force scum to shoot themselves.

[Mathdino]

Suppose we lynch in {4,6}. It could end up in 2 ways:

T|2|3
_____
T|M|5
_____
M|7|8

Assume we bag scum somewhere. Optimal play continues as follows:

T|M|T
_____
T|M|5
_____
M|7|8

If scum's not already dead, it's 3p LyLo with a previously decided extremely townish person in 8.
Not terrible chances.

[Mathdino]

Forgot to write the other way:

T|2|3
_____
M|M|T
_____
T|7|8

The problem here is it relies on scum not both being in {2,3,7,8}, which is a 11/14 chance.

Then after scum shoots it ends up with 3p LyLo again.

These situations are pretty much equal. They both rely on the entire scumteam not being in a certain set of players.

The D1 and D2 lynches pretty much decide the game.

[Mathdino]

The very clear choice is to lynch...

Me

Think about it. I am guaranteed not to live through N1 anyway. Planting the Town flag in the center square gives us the best shot at getting three in a row.

Hey guys, I think Pine is town for including himself in his own lynchpool.

Regardless, I very much don't expect to be townread for setup spec, since that's pretty easy to fake and if the game's full of smart people (case and point: Kaboose

), it's probably gonna get broken anyway.

Scumhunting > setup spec. SS is just something to talk about at the beginning and a good way to structure the game.

[Mathdino]

Starting off with townreads on Beli and Kaboose.

[Mathdino]

Nononono

If scum play TTT,

they win.

By D3, our lynch target WILL be forced until LyLo. We absolutely have to bag scum in the first 4 people to die or we're toast.

We need to play both to win. That way we can maximise our NKA and lynch more strategically.

[Mathdino]

If we get to 5p LyLo without playing TTT and letting scum do that, we lose. This isnt just any 9p mountainous.

Our advantage is the ability to force scum to shoot themselves and analyse the NKs.

[Mathdino]

Hey, guy. I was reaction testing when I suggested we lynch me. Taking the center square first is the sucker's route. It can't lead to anything but a tie. The only way to actually win is to do something else

An example

We put an O in the center, scum takes a corner X, then any space we go in leads us to endless countering
We put an O in the center, scum takes a side X, then any space we go in leads us to endless countering

Do the math. Lynching me is anti-Town from the Tic Tac Toe angle, in addition to the fact that it bypasses a shot at scum

Our best bet is to take a corner, that gives us options. I think it should be RedCoyote. This is just the reaction I was resting for.the opportunity to lynch an Innocdnt Child who's willing to go is just too much a temptation

Vote RedCoyote

This was brilliant omg

No, you're not following it through.

---
---
--O

---
-X-
--O

--O
-X-
--O

--O
-XX
--O

Now we have to block. Then X takes Top or bottom and we have to block that as well. I don't want us to play where we have to block the scum from winning. That means the scum is dictating which players we lynch.

Am I really the only one that doesn't want to block scum from TTT all game? It seems like we can't scumhunt at all past D2 in this scenario and we just hope to get lucky.

Brother, we get to choose 3 deaths in the game; one of them HAS to be scum (pretty much just like the normal 3 deaths we choose in micros). From then on it's down to lynching scum. We play TTT until 3p LyLo and hope we get it right.

The 2 sides opposite RedCoyote are Kaboose and Belisarius, both townreads.
I'm totally down with this lynch.

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: T-Bone

because that puts us in a terrible position.

I'm here to vote RC whenever but I agree it's too early for L-1 just in case.

[Mathdino]

With the exception of Kaboose, the entirety of the RC wagon (including myself because I'd have voted if not L-1) is lining themselves up for tomorrow's lynch.

I like the odds of this wagon being town-motivated.

In other news, vettrock is pinging me weirdly. Equinox seems town. Too early to tell for Scripten but he at least seems genuine.

[Mathdino]

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

Keep in mind that our D3 lynch is absolutely not forced. I mean technically it is but we have control over it.

Suppose for now that RC gets lynched, flips whatever.
Scum kills Pine excepting shenanigans.
Then suppose we collectively decide, say, vettrock is scum.
We can lynch either of vettrock or myself and thus line up the next day's lynch.

See, if we lynch vettrock, scum has to NK me. Then we lynch Equinox and scum kills Scripten.
On the other hand, if we lynch me, scum would have to NK vettrock, then we lynch Kaboose and scum gets to choose who to kill, putting us in 3p LyLo.

We have more control over this than you'd think. Just keep in mind that in lynching RC, we admit that if T-Bone is scum, he can't be lynched until LyLo. Furthermore when we choose which side to go on (the Equinox/Scripten side or the vettrock/Mathdino side) we admit the same for Kaboose and Belisarius, respectively.

[Mathdino]

Nope. Something I should know/read?

[Mathdino]

Why aren't you following the thread? I have a vote on RedCoyote.

I wrote about the one part that stuck out to me because everyone else already hit home the rest of it. I didn't need to go over it again with the same brush.

Nevermind, I hadn't noticed that you'd RVS'd him. My bad.

I suppose this is fair. I assume, based on your post, that your RVS vote is serious now and you would like to see RedCoyote lynched, then?

Yes I would like to see RedCoyote lynched currently based on him agreeing to lynch a confirmed townie, and based on my post earlier.

RedCoyote's justification was more elaborate than that, and so is the case against him. This looks like distancing

I agree actually. The wording seems really really off here, seems like overexplanation.

Considering lynching Equinox if RC flips scum (Kaboose is centre top right?).

[Mathdino]

nope never mind forgot the square

Considering lynching myself if RC flips scum. This guarantees a vettrock kill which forces us to lynch Kaboose rather than Equinox.

[Mathdino]

Noughts and Crosses Mafia

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

Assume we lynch RC. We can choose from the following death orders:

T-Bone -> {Belisarius, Kaboose, Scripten, vettrock}
Belisarius -> {Mathdino, Kaboose, vettrock, Equinox}
Mathdino -> vettrock -> Kaboose -> anyone
Kaboose -> {Belisarius, Mathdino, Equinox, Scripten}
vettrock -> Mathdino -> Equinox -> Scripten
Equinox -> Scripten -> Belisarius -> anyone
Scripten -> Equinox -> Mathdino -> vettrock

[Mathdino]

Nah. There's a pretty obvious next lynch, though I'd rather not elaborate

Although you'll definitely die before you can elaborate?

A yes or no answer will suffice.

VOTE: RedCoyote

I grow weary of waiting.

LOL

Belisarius is now the top of my townreads.

[Mathdino]

1. T-Bone -> {Belisarius, Kaboose, Scripten, vettrock}
2. Belisarius -> {Mathdino, Kaboose, vettrock, Equinox}
3. Mathdino -> vettrock -> Kaboose -> anyone
4. Kaboose -> {Belisarius, Mathdino, Equinox, Scripten}
5. vettrock -> Mathdino -> Equinox -> Scripten
6. Equinox -> Scripten -> Belisarius -> anyone
7. Scripten -> Equinox -> Mathdino -> vettrock

Numbered so we can talk about them. 1, 2, and 4 obviously suck since they give control of the board to scum. T-Bone is the only person we can't force a death on; if we want to lynch T-Bone, we better be damn sure he's the last scum or we're fucked.

I REALLY hate 6 since it has all my townreads. My favourite is probably 3. Could settle for 7 if something pops up.

[Mathdino]

Checking in.

We have to make a choice early on, are we going to play tic tac toe or are we going to play mafia? I think so long as we block scum, there's no reason to focus on tic tac toe. Essentially scum go 2nd (in a proper game), meaning there is no scenario in which they should win in a proper game of tic tac toe. Trying to play tie tac toe is kinda dumb, we're all adults (mostly) and can reasonably play an optimal game of tic tac toe.

pre-edit: basically what Belisarus said...though I think I used prettier words

Actually if anything we should let scum play tic tac toe....because it'll be very telling who they do and don't kill based on the state of the board. Let scum play tic tac toe and we can play mafia.

We'd have to bag scum in the first 4 people normally anyway?

I don't understand where you are coming from.

Okay I kinda get what you're saying. What I'm saying is that we're damned if we do, damned if we don't, I think we're best served to focus on mafia more. Because you're kinda right, at a certain point we will be dictating who they kill and they will be dictating whom we lynch. On Day 1 though....this isn't true and we can play nearly normally.

I do agree, gotta lynch a corner, but we can make an informed decision. I feel like this discussion is all about beholding ourselves to tic tac toe, and we don't need to do that.

You can block those 'inevitable wins' if you know what you're doing so...

I guess so? I dunno, I seriously wrote a 5-page research paper in college about how to play tic tac toe (yes, really), there isn't anything that would surprise me at the very least.

Meanwhile, lynching RC makes you practically immune, yet your ISO is strangely quiet.
VOTE: T-Bone
Pressure.

[Mathdino]

if T-Bone makes it to LyLo we can lynch him

scum getting opposite corners is actually a huge advantage

[Mathdino]

T-Bone needs to give a lot more input than he already has before I'm near ready for a lynch.

I also want reads from the people who've spent all their time setup speccing.

[Mathdino]

Noughts and Crosses Mafia

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

Assume we lynch RC. We can choose from the following death orders:

T-Bone -> {Belisarius, Kaboose, Scripten, vettrock}
Belisarius -> {Mathdino, Kaboose, vettrock, Equinox}
Mathdino -> vettrock -> Kaboose -> anyone
Kaboose -> {Belisarius, Mathdino, Equinox, Scripten}
vettrock -> Mathdino -> Equinox -> Scripten
Equinox -> Scripten -> Belisarius -> anyone
Scripten -> Equinox -> Mathdino -> vettrock

If we lynch RedCoyote, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch vettrock, forces NK on Mathdino, forced Lynch of Equinox. If {RedCoyote,vettrock,Mathdino,Equinox} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch Mathdino, forces NK on vettrock, forced Lynch of Kaboose. If {RedCoyote,vettrock,Mathdino,Kaboose} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Scripten, forces NK on Equinox, forced Lynch of Mathdino. If {RedCoyote,Scripten,Equinox, Mathdino} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch Equinox, forces NK on Scripten, forced Lynch of Belisarius. If {RedCoyote,Scripten,Equinox, Mathdino} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

If we select anything else other than the above after a RC lynch, we conceed control of the board to scum, as they can NK, and force our lynches at that point.
The pattern is the same but with different names if we lynch one of the other corners. Once we do our first lynch, our options are limited.

For the other corners:
If we lynch T-bone first, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch Belisarius, forces NK on Mathdino, forced Lynch of Equinox. If {T-Bone,Belisarius,Mathdino,Equinox} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch Mathdino, forces NK on Belisarius, forced Lynch of Scripten. If {T-Bone,Belisarius,Mathdino,Scripten} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Kaboose, forces NK on Equinox, forced Lynch of Mathdino. If {T-Bone,Kaboose,Equinox, Mathdino} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch Equinox, forces NK on Kaboose, forced Lynch of vettrock. If {T-Bone,Kaboose,Equinox, vettrock} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

If we lynch Equinox first, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch Scripten, forces NK on RedCoyote, forced Lynch of T-Bone. If {Equinox,Scripten,RedCoyote,T-Bone} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch RedCoyote, forces NK on Scripten, forced Lynch of Belisarius. If {Equinox,Scripten,RedCoyote,Belisarius} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Kaboose, forces NK on T-Bone, forced Lynch of RedCoyote. If {Equinox,T-Bone,Kaboose,RedCoyote} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch T-Bone, forces NK on Kaboose, forced Lynch of vettrock. If {Equinox,T-Bone,Kaboose,vettrock} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

If we lynch Mathdino first, the only real viable options, and the chain assuming the scum NK Pine:

1. Lynch vettrock, forces NK on RedCoyote, forced Lynch of T-Bone. If {Mathdino, vettrock,RedCoyote,T-Bone} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
2. Lynch RedCoyote, forces NK on vettrock, forced Lynch of Kaboose. If {Mathdino, vettrock,RedCoyote,Kaboose} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
3. Lynch Belisarius, forces NK on T-Bone, forced Lynch of RedCoyote. If {Mathdino,Belisarius,T-Bone,RedCoyote} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.
4. Lynch T-Bone, forces NK on Belisarius, forced Lynch of Scripten. If {Mathdino,Belisarius,T-bone,Scripten} has zero scum, we loose. If it has one scum, we are in 3p LyLo. Two scum, we win.

i mean let's be honest

this post indicates a lot of effort

but it's the farthest thing from useful

we're pretty much lynching RC anyway

and seriously who's going to read this

[Mathdino]

Really no sense reading scumposting anyways, so no harm done. You know what would be more pro town? A survey about condom flavours.

Pedit: It disnae change fuck all.

@All

: Please give your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd favourite condom flavour.

Mine:
1. Orange
2. Coffee
3. Bacon
mmmm bacon condoms

[Mathdino]

ooh, apple strudel sounds amazing <3

what's hawk sauce condom taste like?

Edit: wtf

[Mathdino]

dammit t-bone is scum isn't he

ugh okay

[Mathdino]

why the fuck would you hammer someone you think is town

[Mathdino]

belisarius lynch is anti-town
completely and utterly anti-town
if you want him dead then we go through the process
you should KNOW this if you can play TTT worth a damn

but you're scum.

[Mathdino]

this doesn't matter AT ALL

if you wanted to lynch {Belisarius, Mathdino, RC} the correct move would be to lynch me

then you lynch on either side and the entirety of {T-Bone, Belisarius, vettrock, RC} would be dead in 2 days

but you're scum so you want to avoid being in that position i'm guessing

[Mathdino]

ugh

the funny thing is, lynching myself actually looks really nice in this situation with a townread on Equinox and Scripten and scumread on T-Bone, vettrock, and RC

dammiiiiit

[Mathdino]

-_-
-_____-
-____________-

then why didn't you just defend him jesus

if you and RC are both town, you've just lost us the game T-Bone

this shit is why i didn't want RC at L-1

[Mathdino]

AGAIN

if you wanted to lynch me/Beli

then you should've pushed for a me-lynch
that gets rid of {me, vettrock, Belisarius, RC} in one fell swoop

not lynch the guy that cancels out the possibility of a Beli lynch

can't tell whether to question your TTT skill or your alignment

Edit: Belisarius please comment

[Mathdino]

no it's fucking not set up to win the game

did you not review the death orders i wrote up

if you want to lynch belisarius AND me, one of us is gonna have to die in LyLo

aka you're gonna be pushing a lynch on one of us in LyLo

which results in a town loss

[Mathdino]

if RC is actually town, vettrock isn't T-Bone's partner

if RC is scum, it's one of {vettrock, T-Bone} (T-Bone is setting himself up to be immune to LyLo since he was so sure he hammered a townie)

if town, Bone's partner is probably in {Kaboose, Equinox}

[Mathdino]

i hate this

jesus if it's {T-Bone, Kaboose} we already lost

[Mathdino]

NOT TRUE

Lynching me absolutely ENSURES scum don't live to LyLo. This is a total no-brainer.

But you have absolutely ZERO case on me OR Belisarius, you just hammered someone you think is town, and made the ultimate anti-town move from your standpoint if you're town and your reads are legit.
And you're making no effort to even consider the possibility of my being town.
Suppose I'm town.
Now what?

[Mathdino]

Yeah, you guys are next to each other, no matter what we did (barring maybe one scenario) one of you were going to survive to LyLo. You're selling to me like you are frustrated scum at this point because I forced the lynch in a spot you didn't want.

in what UNIVERSE would I not want this lynch? For a me/Belisarius scumteam, the optimal lynch is Equinox since it clears both me and Beli from death.

But before you decided to out yourself, I was fully prepared to self-lynch tomorrow so vettrock and Kaboose end up dead.

Also, no due process?

No "we need more discussion"?

Seriously? 90% of this game has been setup spec.

You've fucked us over regardless of your alignment.

[Mathdino]

Okay let's see.

If we lynch T-Bone, mafia must pick a side or lose.

If Kaboose or vettrock is scum, they'll shoot in {Belisarius, Scripten}. Then we're forced to pick the opposite side, which means they kill either me or Equinox.

Basically if we lynch T-Bone, this game is gonna be a 1v1 between Kaboose and vettrock.

Do I need to reiterate how much I hate this? If T-Bone and RC are both town we just lost.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, you guys are next to each other, no matter what we did (barring maybe one scenario) one of you were going to survive to LyLo. You're selling to me like you are frustrated scum at this point because I forced the lynch in a spot you didn't want.

in what UNIVERSE would I not want this lynch? For a me/Belisarius scumteam, the optimal lynch is Equinox since it clears both me and Beli from death.

So basically you wanted more time to set up YOUR optimal lynch. I'm sure that's where this day phase was headed. I was 'too absent' from this thread, and after I had done some minor activity, Equinox would have been 'too absent' and you would have ramped it up on him and pushed his lynch till the cows come home.

This is a slip

I HAD A TOWNREAD ON EQUINOX. LIKE HIS ENTIRE OPENING READS TOTAL TOWN.

RC was gonna be the lynch no matter what, you think I have the influence to change that WHILE completely flipflopping on my reads?

Suppose I'm scum.

DONTCHA THINK TRYING TO SWITCH TO EQUINOX WOULD BE SUICIDE.

[Mathdino]

Yeah, you guys are next to each other, no matter what we did (barring maybe one scenario) one of you were going to survive to LyLo. You're selling to me like you are frustrated scum at this point because I forced the lynch in a spot you didn't want.

in what UNIVERSE would I not want this lynch? For a me/Belisarius scumteam, the optimal lynch is Equinox since it clears both me and Beli from death.

So basically you wanted more time to set up YOUR optimal lynch. I'm sure that's where this day phase was headed. I was 'too absent' from this thread, and after I had done some minor activity, Equinox would have been 'too absent' and you would have ramped it up on him and pushed his lynch till the cows come home.

This is a slip

IF YOU MEAN TOWNSLIP, HELL YES IT'S A SLIP

My optimal lynch for me/Beli as you're proposing is Equinox, absolutely unquestionably.

As town, my optimal lynch BEFORE I REALISED YOU'RE SCUM would be RC because it allows us to take out Kaboose and vettrock at the same time. I don't particularly care if I die from this BECAUSE WHO THE FUCK CARES IF I'M TOWN.

YOU JUST HAMMERED THE PERSON THAT IS YOUR OPTIMAL LYNCH AS SCUM

DAMMIT

[Mathdino]

i thought we had this game in the bag

[Mathdino]

Why would I want to lynch Equinox, a townread?

Why do we have to lynch a corner tomorrow? After Pine dies OUR OPTIMAL LYNCH IS A SIDE, NEWSFLASH.

I wanted RC lynched because after that the death order can be me->vettrock->Kaboose->whoever dies. My master plan D2 was to self-vote.

Your theory is fucked up, if you're town you're absolutely fucking right you set up the perfect mislynch BY HAMMERING A TOWNIE DAY 1.

I know I'm town. If you and RC are both town, (and I have a townread on Beli), there's very very little we can do to win this.

[Mathdino]

i thought we had this game in the bag

This is why Math is scum. He keeps INSISTING that I have claimed scum...but yet somehow the town is going to lose despite me scumflipping when you lynch me? There's no reason town-Math should be upset, because if I have just claimed scum, I have set up the town to a greater chance to win. I don't see anyone else who is scumreading me getting upset that I might have claimed scum. For Pine, it's an assured thing that I flip scum, and he's not worrying about the town being in a bad position...there is much discontent between what Math-town should be, and what Math actually is.

Did I make any sense to anyone there?

no fuck this shit

if we lynch you, scum controls the death order until 3p lylo

a lylo that we have a damn good chance of losing

lynching you, even if you flip scum, loses control of the board

and as of yet i have no idea who your partner is if RC is town

again

your theory either SUCKS ASS or you're scum and you just pulled the optimal move

[Mathdino]

Why would I want to lynch Equinox, a townread?

Why do we have to lynch a corner tomorrow? After Pine dies OUR OPTIMAL LYNCH IS A SIDE, NEWSFLASH.

I wanted RC lynched because after that the death order can be me->vettrock->Kaboose->whoever dies. My master plan D2 was to self-vote.

Your theory is fucked up, if you're town you're absolutely fucking right you set up the perfect mislynch BY HAMMERING A TOWNIE DAY 1.

I know I'm town. If you and RC are both town, (and I have a townread on Beli), there's very very little we can do to win this.

Again disconnect!!!!!....Town-you is getting exactly what you want!!

Like I don't understand this at all. You're saying "Hi I'm Math, I'm town, and I want x, y, and z to happen this game" and now that you are getting "x, y, and z (potentially)" you're freaking out about losing! It makes no sense!

wantED
wanTED
TED
TED

before you claimed scum i had good reason to believe the scumteam was in {Kaboose, vettrock, RC}

so an RC lynch is perfection with the exception of the fact that i have to get lynched for this plan to work

BUT GREAT NOW YOU'RE SCUM
I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I WANT NOW
YOUR LYNCH WOULD BE NICE

[Mathdino]

don't you dare present this as "this is what you wanted anyway"

scum hammering town is the opposite of what i wanted

if you're town and RC is town, we're arguing over the fact that you lost us the game, plain and simple

i have 0 reason outside of TTT to not vote you tomorrow based on this fuckery

so yes, if town loses, it's on you, brother

i hope you're scum so at least you deserve the damn win

[Mathdino]

meanwhile, i question your alignment with the 'hardcore townreading' and the general buddying going on

but fuuuuck

even if T-Bone flips scum our lynches become forced after that

and if he's town we unquestionably lose by lynching him

need to look at beli's interactions now -_-

[Mathdino]

Scenarios:

1. RC is scum. Great. Sweet. Keep lynching as usual and have everyone promise to lynch T-Bone in LyLo. Scum is guaranteed to be in {Kaboose, vettrock, T-Bone}.
2. RC is town and T-Bone is town. FUCK WE LOST.
3. RC is town and T-Bone is scum. Whoop-dee-doo. Scum just hammered town. But EVEN IF we lynch T-Bone the day after that, we either go with the lynch scum force upon us, or we HAVE to bag the last scum. Otherwise we lose.
And unfortunately, T-Bone, I have no idea who your partner is, and we don't have the luxury of just lynching anyone.

The hilarious thing about this is this game would now be easier if it were mountainous.

[Mathdino]

*goes offline for sleep and work*

*isn't putting in "effort"*

lol

So, does it change anyone's opinion that in the first two instances of this set-up someone always suggests that town lynches the IC for board control?

The best part (and I forgot about this post) is that this is a total misrep.

I didn't say he wasn't putting in effort.

I was responding to others wanting to quicklynch RC by saying that I want way more input from T-Bone and a few others before doing so.

Nice.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Mathdino

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE: Mathdino

I'M JUST GONNA
PRETEND THAT WAS A REACTION TEST
AND READ OVER THE GAME ONCE MORE
>.>
<.<
>.>

[Mathdino]

T-Bone	Belisarius	X Mathdino
X Kaboose	0 Pine	0 vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	X RedCoyote

I don't understand how TTT rules stop mattering once we hit LyLo. If scum NK a side, we just lynch the corner and win. No, they're forced between T-Bone and Equinox and honestly I think they'll hit Equinox.

[Mathdino]

EBWOP: If scum NK a side, we just lynch the other side and win.

I think we need to start planning for LyLo. Assume me, vettrock, and Kaboose flip town. Now us 3 are the conftownies deciding between the remaining 4.

Does anyone see merit in the idea that T-Bone quickhammered his partner for towncred?

[Mathdino]

The first lynch of the game

RedCoyote (5) - Kaboose, Equinox, Scripten, Belisarius, T-Bone
Pine (1) - RedCoyote
T-Bone (1) - Mathdino

Note Voting:, Pine, vettrock
Five votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-25 09:48:12)

Every last one of them was on the RC lynch, so scum must've bussed.

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah you're right, I'm dumb, sorry.

My current lynch order for the remaining 4 is T-Bone -> Equinox -> Belisarius -> Scripten. Will explain why in a sec.

Kaboose, go over those 4 with me, we should come to an agreement.

[Mathdino]

Center square isn't necessary to win a game so I wouldn't count on scum autolynching Pine, especially if his reads are off.

Actually, this is crazy WIFOM so please disregard. Math is right; scum will probably hit conftown/center square. No need to really setup spec any more than this. Anyone who doesn't follow, read this: How to never lose at tic tac toe (but not how to always win)

Kind of a meh towntell but the 'scum autolynching' is a town mindset. And the mind switching on whether scum would kill Pine; keep in mind that scum probably talked before D1 so they probably already had a plan come daystart.

Hey guys, I think Pine is town for including himself in his own lynchpool.

Regardless, I very much don't expect to be townread for setup spec, since that's pretty easy to fake and if the game's full of smart people (case and point: Kaboose

), it's probably gonna get broken anyway.

Scumhunting > setup spec. SS is just something to talk about at the beginning and a good way to structure the game.

This is actually more town to me than any of Math's other posts, ironically.

Quoting this to just talk about his read on me, I appreciate that he didn't just immediately dole out a Math-town read like most people do when I get active. This read flows very naturally.

Our best bet is to take a corner, that gives us options. I think it should be RedCoyote. This is just the reaction I was resting for.the opportunity to lynch an Innocdnt Child who's willing to go is just too much a temptation

Vote RedCoyote

I was legitimately hoping this was what you were doing. I'm okay with this.

UNVOTE: Mathdino
VOTE: RedCoyote

This is L-1.

Probably one of the towniest things. Scripten made no indication it was a reaction test and I think we can take him at his word that he thought it was since he didn't really comment on Pine's plan much. He went with it and sheeped Pine's results.

In other news, vettrock is pinging me weirdly.

Have you played with Vettrock before?

***

(89) reads strangely for me.

Kaboose:

You wrote a lot about how that one particular quote was problematic, but that post just feels like fluff and posturing. Why aren't you voting for RedCoyote right now?

Good anti sensationalism on vettrock, good thing to point out with Kaboose.

UNVOTE: Mathdino

Hold up a second. I'm going to do a quick once-over before we lynch.

And lastly, the reread.

Scripten is strongest townread in my book.

[Mathdino]

Speaking of which, RedCoyote, Equinox, and Vettrock are all missing. I find this troubling, considering lurking scum did quite well in the last game of this setup. I know vettrock is a town lurker, but the other two I know nothing of.

This game started literally 6 hours ago.

I don't know about you Tic-Tac-Toe strategists, but I'm starting to think that we have a better chance at winning by lynching scum rather than picking squares, especially when Pine is in the center. To start, there are already some obvtown players, so scum will have to choose between someone actively thinking and posting in the game who is universally read as town and someone who isn't leading the thread nearly as much but is confirmed town. I don't know about you, but having an innocent child in LyLo as scum isn't the worst thing in the world.

Vote: RedCoyote

Semi-RVS vote on a fellow 6-hour lurker omg because there's a large swath of the player list I'm not very interested in lynching at the moment.

Preview edit: What T-Bone said more elegantly.

This post reads pretty town, also the nuanced view on a Pine kill.

Okay, everyone stopped laughing? Hear me out. If we do this, we retain control the entire game. The scumteam never force us into lynching anyone with their kills because we have the center square. Every lynch we do will effectively control the scumkill as well because otherwise they lose. For instance, say we lynch Pine and scum kill me. We can lynch anyone except T-Bone and force the scum's hand. If we then lynch, say, vettrock, then the scum have to kill Kaboose. If Kaboose isn't killed, he's confirmed scum. If Kaboose is killed, this doesn't help the scum get any closer to winning on the board. Then we can lynch, say, Mathdino, and the same thing applies to Equinox.

Lynching the center square is like giving us two free investigations, I think. Granted, we have to sacrifice our IC to get it, but if we don't lynch Pine today, the scum will kill him tonight and we'll be stuck chasing the scum around the board.

[...]

I always have the long game in mind. I think playing for the right now can be dangerous and naive because it's not guaranteed that we're going to hit scum in the first two days, Belisarius, no matter how confident you think you/we are.

I will argue the opposite. It's true that it's necessary to have the long game in mind, especially with something like this where there are two win conditions in play, but there's also the danger of completely losing the advantages of playing the short game. Day 1 is arguably the best day to get reads because there is more spontaneity on the part of everyone. The evidence of that is already apparent in this thread. We lose that the second we decide to lynch the center square and move to Night. While I like the idea of having those free investigations, doing that at the cost of the interactions from Today does not make a fair trade.

Hypothetically speaking, if Pine became a non-presence in the thread and/or misread the scum while Mathdino-town continued to stomp all over the thread and eat scum like grass, would center square be worth the risk of Mathdino lynching one of them (or even the other of them) the following Day?

Lynching Pine is not as obvious of an answer as you make it to be.

Meanwhile I'm questioning whether we should view this as coaching, seeing as Equinox appears to make no effort to discern RC's alignment from all this. The NK makes no indication that Equinox was following this proposed scum strategy but that's easily WIFOMable. I'm not sure what to think and I think we need Equinox's reads in here.

Kaboose, vettrock, thoughts?

[Mathdino]

Not exactly helpful. Why is Belisarius scum?

What's your explanation of T-Bone's behaviour?

[Mathdino]

My fear is if we lynch T-Bone we'll pretty much be left with Kaboose, vettrock, and whichever of me and Equinox that scum wants in LyLo (my money's on Equinox, no offence).

I don't like that.

[Mathdino]

Bit sensational for my tastes.

If we lynch T-Bone, scum controls the lynches until LyLo. In essence scum will make it between you and Scripten and Kaboose and vettrock, assuming Equinox is town. If we try to pick our own lynch before that, we do indeed lose.

Let's all assume I'll be lynched and Kaboose and vettrock are dead in the water.

Now what? Thoughts on Equinox/Scripten/T-Bone, Beli?

[Mathdino]

The only way I'll believe Equinox and Scripten could be scum is if they flip that way or everyone but the two of them and me is dead and the game isn't over.

inb4 "that can be arranged"

[Mathdino]

I don't understand the hard defending of Equinox. He's had all of two posts, one of which can very much be interpreted as coaching the scumbuddy. Please explain.

[Mathdino]

confbias

(haven't even read your post)

[Mathdino]

so you're saying equinox is either sucking at scum this game by pointing directly to his partner

or he's lurky town

this makes me more confident in both your slots, cool

lynch t-bone if we get to lylo

[Mathdino]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

[Mathdino]

If everyone is fine with Mathdino today, assume a NK on Vettrock, and then blocking with me, I'll give intent to hammer to further the town's desired course of action.

I'm still looking at some people though, more so the ones who aren't going to come under any form of lynch or NK because of this plan of action.

This path gives us T-Bone, Belisarius, and Scripten on the final day.

Personally, I don't like Belisarius.

i like this

Anyone else not liking Belisarius?

XTX
XMX
XXT

Doesn't put us in any worse position, and we can still end with a 3 person lylo like we are now.

I don't like Belisarius at all.

i don't like this, kaboose should know better

I think either Belisaruis or Tbone is scum. I know I am town, and I am getting town reads from mathdino. My optimal lynch would be Equinox, only because that sets up the Belisarius lynch. If we have to go my way, I prefer Mathdino over me as I see Equinox as town. I think most likely this us going to head into 3p Lylo where Tbone us the scum.

VOTE: Equinox

To be clear I think Equinox is town, but the path to the scum leads through him.

Also, I am considering the T-bone lynch as well. If we lynch T-bone, scum will Nk one of the four sides, whichever one does not have scum opposite. So if the kill me, we have to lynch Kaboose, and we are in 3p LyLo. The disadvantage here is if T-bone is not scum, we are headed to 3p lylo with the two town that scum chooses, whereas with either mathdino, myself, Equinox or scripten, we have the potential to kill one of the scum out of the possible town insread of the squares scum cooses for us after a T-bone.

i really don't like this

i want kaboose to vote me and explain the belisarius lead. keep in mind that for v/k, they are also at l-1, technically

[Mathdino]

VOTE: mathdino

i claim cop with a guilty on myself

VOTE: pine

[Mathdino]

Wow, I log on and the game is already three pages long.

I agree we have to both play tic-tac-toe, and scum hunt. I do think we should start with which ever of the corners seems scummiest. We have to assume Pine will be NK on N1 for them to take the center, from there we scum hunt amoung, the two sides next to the corner that we lynched, and the corners that would make three. That way we force the NK of the scum, and we have 4 out of 7 to choose from. If the square to complete the three is scum, either scum will have to NK one of their own, or we just lynch for the win the next day. If scum NKs to block, we go the other way.

I think until as least one scum is dead, the TTT game needs to drive the lynches at least partially. Once we have one scum flip, we can lynch anyone as getting the scum will win the game.

I disagree with NK Pine.

The center while it does give some advantage, it is not worth losing a conftown, and letting scum NK another town.

lol at standard scumtell

compared to scripten's standard towntell

[Mathdino]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

After screaming yesterday that you would call for your own lynch for the good of the town.

I am legitimately surprised RC flipped scum, but it only makes everything Math has done this game make more sense. He was so upset I quickhammered his buddy and faked so much townrage over it. Then he gave all these scenarios where he would advocate his own lynch for the good of the town. He needs to go, because he's the last scum.

Vote: Mathdino

bro

i went offline for the entirety of the time i was sleeping while i was self voting

i HAVE been screaming that i'd call for my own lynch

I AM STILL calling for my own lynch

you understand that if kaboose and vettrock flip town you're gonna be lynched as a result of this shit

the only reason i unvoted there was to give me, kaboose, and vettrock time to talk about the remaining 4 people

so get your vote off me so loltastic players like you don't quickhammer me

so we can work together before i self hammer

also i want your vote off me because i want one of kaboose's and vettrock's votes on me

so seriously, get it off

[Mathdino]

for reasons unstated, i will not be self voting after that initial test

VOTE: pine

would recommend lynching me though

Why do you keep voting Pine? What does that supposed to mean?

it means all of literally nothing

i don't want my vote on anyone in the game except myself

so i'm putting it on pine just cuz

why, are you reading something

also t-bone's "mathdino is scum regardless of RC's flip" is imbecilic

[Mathdino]

Cool beans, lynch T-Bone if we get to LyLo, but don't lynch him yet because vettrock.

Still want vettrock and Kaboose's reads.

[Mathdino]

can someone get their vote off me please

i want someone else to be voting me

[Mathdino]

Interesting, go on. Would be interested in a case.

Also, read on T-Bone?

[Mathdino]

yes

[Mathdino]

Kaboose I'd like you to keep me at L-1.

[Mathdino]

the fuck is wrong with you

[Mathdino]

i'm not sure he understands how scum wincon works

considering he thinks i'm playing to it

and considering he's playing staunchly against it by being an easily lynched idiot

[Mathdino]

does anyone have meta on this guy

not even beck tunneled this hard

and this idiotically

and i mean at least beck was right

this guy hammered the guy he called town O_O

[Mathdino]

Beginning to think T-Bone's just an idiot, not scum.

[Mathdino]

You don't know me, brother. Over 75% of my games contain a quickhammer. Few have people prematurely hammering a townread.

[Mathdino]

Also an arrogant ass tbh. Luckily Scripten and I are used to that.

[Mathdino]

I'm fighting an uphill battle because no one will entertain for even a second that I am town who made a play with the town's best interest. No please, no one look at the game from my point of view, no one engage in a dialogue with me from a town stance, that would make all ya'll irresponsible townies...

I won't even post in LyLo if we get there...at this point those of you who are town better hope that the way we are being forced to lynch hits the last scum whether that person is Mathdino or someone else. Since my lynch is a foregone conclusion we better strategize the Day 2 and 3 lynch now. Lynching Mathdino automatically lynches Kaboose Day 3. Is this acceptable if Math is town? Yes? No? What if we lynch Vetrock and he's town (and Math's town). Is Equinox an acceptable Day 3 lynch? etc. etc. etc. Just because my scumlynch is a foregone conclusion on Day 4 doesn't mean we shouldn't be worrying about the Day 2 and Day 3 now...we lose the game if scum gets to Day 4 with me, because I don't have any faith I won't be quicklynched anyway.

Like what the fuck even is this?

1. Implying you will entertain for a second that I'm town ADVOCATING MY OWN LYNCH who stalls lynches that shut up discussion.
2. Play in the towns best interest is hammering a townread?! You understand how this game works, right? You're damn lucky he flipped scum. The damn ICs ghost is pushing your lynch AND I PREFER TO LYNCH MYSELF.
3. Wow, yeah, throw the game if Kaboose and vett flip town, good plan.
4. No shit it's acceptable, this unanimous among all butK and V themselves. Stop acting like you're asking new profound questions.
5. Equinox is a dumbass lynch.

[Mathdino]

Nah I'm not interested in letting scum tell me what to do Math.

Tell me more about scum!Mathdino, please.

I mean, there is just so many things he does that don't make sense coming from town.

I was leaning scum on him in the way he was directing the town on Day 1. It wasn't a big deal, but enough for me to have suspicions. RC's lynch was inevitable, so I hammered him early to shake things up. What Math went on to do however just made no sense.

He completely lost his shit Day 1 after I hammered RC, before a flip, and he was crying in the thread that I had lost the game for the town. Even though other players had problems with what I did, no one openly weaped about it like he did. It didn't make sense then. In retrospect of RC's scumflip, it feels like to me he was complaining about how bad a position I put his scumteam. He immediately started calling for my lynch, and frankly it was ridiculously scummy.

I don't know why he's not fighting his lynch too much (just slightly), and it gives me a little pause, BUT I think he has to say "hey guys lynch me" while trying to get someone else to lead a lynch on someone else (me), because that's the character he has painted himself in this game. What would you have done if Math came into Day 2 and refused to allow himself to be lynched? How much would that have changed your perception on him? I think it would have changed a few people's, and that's why he felt he couldn't.

I lost my shit because you got me to believe you're scum hammering town. Lost all confidence in the lynch when you pulled that shit.

I really do enjoy how somehow your scumread on me grows stronger after you were already proven laughably wrong on RC.

[Mathdino]

does anyone have meta on this guy

not even beck tunneled this hard

and this idiotically

and i mean at least beck was right

this guy hammered the guy he called town O_O

Oh and since RC flipped scum I in my infinite knowledge (as scum) threw our entire game away to accomplish what? At best get lynched in LyLo, at worst get lynched today?

I mean I am so hilariously obvtown it physically hurts me. But hell guys, let's lynch me instead of Math so that he can conveniently direct the tie tac toe board to ensure he goes to LyLo.

Or heck Math, let's lynch Equinox so we both go to LyLo and you can get your oh so satisfying lynch of me. Are you still fake reading Equinox as town? Of course you are, since I'm scum after all. I totally believe that you had a hard town read on a slot with two posts...

1. YOU JUST SAID HE'D GET HAMMERED ANYWAY.
2. I don't know how good your scumgame is but I know your towngame is shit right now so the theory isn't that far off.
3. NO ONE WANTS TO LYNCH YOU. GET THAT THROUGH YOUR HEAD. THIS DAY IS ENDING WITH MY LYNCH. Your job is to prove to us you're not the hypothetical scum in the final four.
4. Who the fuck are you talking about, Beli was the one hard defending Equi, not me. I agree with his argument though, it's solid.
5. Your last paragraphs useless sarcasm is noted. Any legit questions you got? Like whether or not quickhammers ALWAYS piss me off?

Edit: yeah, see, the entire thread including the dead guy is scumreading you and I'm the closest we got to conftown since IM DEAD ALREADY. Jesus.

[Mathdino]

Do you have any goddamn idea how easy itd be to push a lynch on you right now as scum?

Do you see me voting? I will self hammer if you get near a lynch, I promise you that.

Wish I didn't have to though.

[Mathdino]

Im currently scumreading you most out of the final four so I'm fulfilling both priorities I think. Convince me otherwise.

Remind me why you're more concerned with convincing the people already voting me that I'm scum?

Also, speaking of which,

KABOOSE I CLAIM SCUM, LYNCH THE FUCK OUT OF ME.

[Mathdino]

Yeah I'm just gonna quit working on this guy.

i expect the next post by either Kaboose or vettrock to be a me vote.

Whoever gets here first.

[Mathdino]

This isn't an equivalency. I've been spending my time getting reads on literally everyone that wasn't you today until you showed up and started tunneling me again. Right now I'm solid on Scrip and Equi and still confident in lining up Kaboose and vettrock.

So assume we're all wrong and we all flip town and you don't throw the game. Who is the last scum?

[Mathdino]

What was the original Beli read based on? I'm collecting Beli arguments right now, my read on him is the least solid.

[Mathdino]

Vote me.

Right now.

[Mathdino]

I'm scum.

Now vote me, I'm giving up the game.

[Mathdino]

shut up scripten

[Mathdino]

Kaboose, town has pretty much got this game in the bag, completely solved and done. I'm not going to win this, let's face it.

Now lynch the fuck out of me. I'm not gonna die with a vote on myself.

[Mathdino]

Do I need to start using reverse psychology?

Yes, Kaboose, this is definitely a test. Now vote me so you can pass it.

Or don't, whatever.

[Mathdino]

vettrock, naturally. vettrock's next post should be a hammer. Otherwise I will hammer the moment he makes that post.

[Mathdino]

A couple days ago, I had a dream where I ended up voting T-Bone and his wagon got to L-1 while mine was at L-1 and I had to hurry to log in to make sure he didn't get hammered.

Half of the dream was spent trying to type in the 'unvote' tag when you can't really read properly in dreams.

Dammit, mafia.

[Mathdino]

No, I'm waiting for vettrock to hammer me.

[Mathdino]

Right.

So.

T-Bone is probably town for this dumbness considering all unvoting me is gonna do is get me lynched by me, Scripten, and Equinox.

Kaboose is probably scum.

[Mathdino]

*for this dumbness if he's scum

[Mathdino]

@Scripten: Yep! Then we can strongarm people into killing me!

[Mathdino]

Bro if we hit LyLo just kill Beli.

[Mathdino]

Actually, T-Bone, take your vote off so vettrock can put his on.

I want the power of hammer to be between me and Scripten (Scripten as a backup if I try to weasel out of a lynch or some shit).

[Mathdino]

Right, and the deadline lynch will obviously me. If I try to stop it I'm pretty sure I can trust you two to not let me xD

[Mathdino]

Obviously we should counterwagon vettrock so I die anyway.

[Mathdino]

Cool beans. Ill vote me when I get a comp

Or someone else can pls

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Mathdino

STOP RIGHT THERE, CRIMINAL SCUM

*shouts at mirror*

[Mathdino]

I did :'(

On the bright side, I'll have some brilliant stuff to tell the self-hammering thread after this game is over.

[Mathdino]

BAH