Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[Kaboose]

VOTE: RedCoyote

Never seen a red coyote so until you prove you're real, vote goes on you.

[Kaboose]

That's exactly what I hate about TTT actually. Far prefer Ultimate Tic Tac Toe.

Here's a visualisation of my strategy for those of you who hate setup spec (tsk tsk tsk).

Blue is lynches, Orange is kills.

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

Wouldn't it be more beneficial if the N2 kill based on this would be a side and not a corner? Because if they had pine, it would work against us as it would force us to block their next move.
I'm not going to be as fancy as you. Here is now.

X|X|X
_____
X|X|X
_____
X|X|X

If we follow your lead and lynch a corner and assuming T=Town Lynch and M=Mafia NK

We get this after D1.
T|X|X
_____
X|X|X
_____
X|X|X

You suggest they take out the IC on N1 leaving us with...

T|X|X
_____
X|M|X
_____
X|X|X

We take the opposite corner and after D2 it looks like...

T|X|X
_____
X|M|X
_____
X|X|T

Now with the board looking like that, any TTT player should know that taking a corner is auto lose if you're going second. Mafia taking a corner here puts them in a bad spot because we take the opposite corner and they'll have two sides to fill in one turn which is impossible. So the mafia would have to take a side now to go on the offensive. So N2 ends with a side lynch.

T|M|X
_____
X|M|X
_____
X|X|T

This forces us to lynch someone which means mafia control our D3 lynch assuming they're still alive. So your plan gives mafia the ability to take control of the board on N2. From here they would have it completely mapped out and we wouldn't be able to lynch who we think is scum and would be lynching simply to avoid losing the other way.

[Kaboose]

I'm down with lynching a corner, but haven't decided which one, so I'm not committing a vote. I know I'm not voting Mathdino, though.

Why not mathdino?

[Kaboose]

I see what you're saying Pine, but lynching you or no even lynching gives us the least amount of info for D2. Why would we kill the mafia's target for them? If anything we need your voice to rise up and pick someone.

[Kaboose]

I'm not saying it's

impossible

for Mathdino to be scum based on the evidence presented, merely that it is less likely and thus suboptimal to lynch him on Day One.

Another point in his column is that his initial strategy placed him squarely in his own proposed lynch pool, something that scum are less likely to propose, although apparently I am required to disclaim that it is once again

not impossible

for this type of gambit to come from scum.

Well thanks for that WIFOM right there. Does mafia include himself in a lynch pool to look less mafia? Come on now.

[Kaboose]

The very clear choice is to lynch...

Me

Think about it. I am guaranteed not to live through N1 anyway. Planting the Town flag in the center square gives us the best shot at getting three in a row.

Hey guys, I think Pine is town for including himself in his own lynchpool.

Regardless, I very much don't expect to be townread for setup spec, since that's pretty easy to fake and if the game's full of smart people (case and point: Kaboose

), it's probably gonna get broken anyway.

Scumhunting > setup spec. SS is just something to talk about at the beginning and a good way to structure the game.

If you're calling me smart, you've lost the plot mate.

I've been racking my brains for the best lynch here... And it seems either way we end up in a spot where we'll be lynching more to block.

We need to force scum to block us instead of the other way around. That way it's up to use who is living and who is dying.

Assuming they NK the IC N1 whatever square we lynch, we have to take one right next to it. That will force the mafia to block us. Taking the NK out of their hands and in to ours. So we aren't voting to lynch one person, we're voting to lynch two on D2.

[Kaboose]

This is hurting my head.

PE: My reasoning would be to make them do stuff. We don't have much power but we can pretty much control what scum do until D3 when we'll be forced to block. Why would we lynch you and give scum a free lynch when we can lynch 1 of the other 8 and have a 12.5% chance of hitting scum? Your way two townies are dead starting D2 no matter what I'd assume.

[Kaboose]

I agree with that.

[Kaboose]

We need to pick a corner tonight. I know we aren't playing tic tac toe, but it's no point in gimping ourselves from the start. Corner move gives us 4 options to lynch on D2 if we want to keep scum from taking advantage early. Instead of 2 options to lynch D2 if we want to keep scum from taking early advantage.

We should probably back off until the last remaining to not post have gotten a word in though.

[Kaboose]

Simple: We can't win by playing TTT; all TTT games played between players who know what they're doing end in a draw. We need to win by lynching the scum, same as we would in a conventional Mafia game. Lynching town is not a path to victory in a conventional Mafia game, therefore we're not taking the centre square.

^Town

While it isn't true that all TTT games end in a draw (There are a couple of opening moves leading to inevitable wins which most people don't see) it would be impossible to get three in a row with what I proposed. Any time we got two in a row, scum could block us easily, even if they had to kill one of their own to do it

I was waiting for someone to look at it critically enough to recognize that

Okay, we've got two Townies

Confirmed town or not I don't like this attitude really. We need to play both. We need to scum hunt properly enough to put ourselves in as strong a board position as possible. There's going to come a point where we won't be able to just play a normal Mafia Game and will have to think about playing TTT as well.

I think our best play is to be the one forcing the mafia to block instead of them forcing us to block, that way we're deciding who they kill instead of them deciding who we kill.

[Kaboose]

If we then lynch, say, vettrock, then the scum have to kill Kaboose. If Kaboose isn't killed, he's confirmed scum.

I want to point out that this is such a useless point. It has nothing to do with scum confirming me, because at this point it wouldn't matter if I was scum, a SK, the mod, Jesus Christ or Brad Pitt. Town win the game. The only thing it would confirm is that town have won the game, so why are you trying to make it seem like this scenario matters? The reason this matters to me, is because you're not pointing out that town would win, and to me that sort of tells me you're not concerned with them winning I guess.

It's like you're more interested in telling us how people get confirmed scum, than how we win. In this scenario we would win by lynching me and in that scenario I'd be the first person to vote for me.

Maybe it was just a mental lapse but I read that and it stuck out like a sore thumb to me that you'd rather try and say someone was confirmed scum, than say town win by simply lynching that person. Maybe it stuck out more because you used me as an example, but you're the one typing out that scenario and for you to not realize that would win the game for town makes me think you're not thinking about ways town win.

Also you're right the center square gives us a great control of the board, you're wrong that we should lynch a confirmed townie. Only time that's worth doing is if it wins the game some how. However, considering it would be the first lynch I don't see how we win doing that.

[Kaboose]

In other news, vettrock is pinging me weirdly.

Have you played with Vettrock before?

***

(89) reads strangely for me.

Kaboose:

You wrote a lot about how that one particular quote was problematic, but that post just feels like fluff and posturing. Why aren't you voting for RedCoyote right now?

Why aren't you following the thread? I have a vote on RedCoyote.

I wrote about the one part that stuck out to me because everyone else already hit home the rest of it. I didn't need to go over it again with the same brush.

[Kaboose]

Why aren't you following the thread? I have a vote on RedCoyote.

I wrote about the one part that stuck out to me because everyone else already hit home the rest of it. I didn't need to go over it again with the same brush.

Nevermind, I hadn't noticed that you'd RVS'd him. My bad.

I suppose this is fair. I assume, based on your post, that your RVS vote is serious now and you would like to see RedCoyote lynched, then?

Yes I would like to see RedCoyote lynched currently based on him agreeing to lynch a confirmed townie, and based on my post earlier.

[Kaboose]

Why aren't you following the thread? I have a vote on RedCoyote.

I wrote about the one part that stuck out to me because everyone else already hit home the rest of it. I didn't need to go over it again with the same brush.

Nevermind, I hadn't noticed that you'd RVS'd him. My bad.

I suppose this is fair. I assume, based on your post, that your RVS vote is serious now and you would like to see RedCoyote lynched, then?

Yes I would like to see RedCoyote lynched currently based on him agreeing to lynch a confirmed townie, and based on my post earlier.

RedCoyote's justification was more elaborate than that, and so is the case against him. This looks like distancing

This looks like a confirmed townie over thinking things.

[Kaboose]

Nope

Okay

[Kaboose]

The best vote count of Day Two so far

Note Voting: Equinox, T-Bone, Belisarius, Kaboose, Mathdino, vettrock, Scripten

Five

votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-30 04:54:50)

@MOD Is it five to lynch or four?

[Kaboose]

Alas, that is correct.

I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.

VOTE: Mathdino

Anyone else see a problem with this?

[Kaboose]

Belisarius wants to lynch Vettrock for the win. But votes Mathdino... The result either way is the same outcome. If we lynched Vettrock, who apparently is the winning lynch, and they come back town, the final scum would be forced to NK Mathdino for the block. We also don't lose the initiative because either way we end up going for the winning lynch on D3 or blocking to force the D4 finale if our block is town.

[Kaboose]

Also, as an added bonus, lynching Math puts T-Bone back into the line of fire.

This is wrong. It doesn't put T-Bone back in to the line of fire at all.

X|X|X
_____
X|M|X
_____
X|X|T

Current board, lynching top right doesn't even get close to T-Bone as a possible lynch at all. If we go your route, and everyone is town assuming, we start D3 like this...

X|X|T
_____
X|M|M
_____
X|X|T

Why does this board state put T-Bone under fire? We have to block by lynching me now, and that will indeed also be a town lynch. It doesn't put town in any more position to lynch T-Bone anymore than it is right now. Terrible logic.

[Kaboose]

If everyone is fine with Mathdino today, assume a NK on Vettrock, and then blocking with me, I'll give intent to hammer to further the town's desired course of action.

I'm still looking at some people though, more so the ones who aren't going to come under any form of lynch or NK because of this plan of action.

This path gives us T-Bone, Belisarius, and Scripten on the final day.

Personally, I don't like Belisarius.

[Kaboose]

Actually I was looking at the wrong square. It would give us T-Bone, Equinox, and one Belisarius or Scripten.

[Kaboose]

Yeah, you're right. I guess at that point it won't matter.

[Kaboose]

Anyone else not liking Belisarius?

XTX
XMX
XXT

Doesn't put us in any worse position, and we can still end with a 3 person lylo like we are now.

I don't like Belisarius at all.

[Kaboose]

How exactly do we "just lynch a corner and win?"

The reason it stops mattering is because if we follow through with the Mathdino lynch... And we don't hit a scum ever.

XXT
TMM
XXT

That's what we'll get to during N3, they can kill whoever. We won't be able to win with TTT, and it won't matter if we block or don't block because once we lynch, if we're wrong, it'll be 1 townie and 1 scum left going in to N4. My money would be on the scum to win that N4 exchange.

[Kaboose]

I still don't like Belisarius and it mostly has to do with his first two posts of D2 both being wrong and misleading. He acts like he should be in LyLo more than other people and it rubs me the wrong way.

Mathdino, Equinox are town.

[Kaboose]

Interesting, go on. Would be interested in a case.

Also, read on T-Bone?

On Belisarius?

[Kaboose]

Alas, that is correct.

I kind of want to lynch vettrock and win today, but if I'm wrong, we lose the initiative.

VOTE: Mathdino

This was his first post of the day and when I saw it the first thing that popped in my head was that it didn't make sense.

Because there was no point voting Mathdino just to get to Vettrock, because if he was bold enough to suggest Vett is the last scum, but not willing to talk us in to it? What does it really matter if we're losing initiative(Which we wouldn't)? How does this add up, he clearly thinks Vett to be the last scum, but is happy to go along with the self-vote?

Also, as an added bonus, lynching Math puts T-Bone back into the line of fire.

This was his third post of D2 and again was not correct to me. Lynching Math doesn't put T-Bone anywhere near the line of fire. In fact it's pretty safe to assume T-Bone will be in LyLo if we get that far.

What gets me is he town read Mathdino and Equinox. Yet was sooooo fast to vote Mathdino, because he knows if we lynch Equinox he'll be in for a lynch come D3.

[Kaboose]

I don't want to vote Mathdino, Mathdino.

I think I'd rather lynch Equinox to get to Belisarius. I say this because I'd like the town to win.

[Kaboose]

What is it going to accomplish?

[Kaboose]

VOTE: Mathdino[\vote]

As long as we win.

[Kaboose]

VOTE: Mathdino

[Kaboose]

Can we lynch Belisarius now?

[Kaboose]

Come on guys, hammer this guy. Then scum block with Vett, and if they don't we win. If they do lynch me, take it to like LyLo or some shit and then lynch Beli. PLEASE.

[Kaboose]

VOTE: kaboose

get on with it...

if belisarius is in lylo do me a favour and lynch him. Thanks.

[Kaboose]

I want all four remaining players other than me, to list for me the order they would lynch the other three. Give reasons if you want.

[Kaboose]

Equinox, Beli, Scripten from most to least.

Why Equinox before Beli? I thought you were convinced that Beli was scum?

Psst: he just posted his preferred NK order by mistake.

Can I get a list from you?

[Kaboose]

Equinox, Beli, Scripten from most to least.

Why Equinox before Beli? I thought you were convinced that Beli was scum?

Psst: he just posted his preferred NK order by mistake.

Can I get a list from you?

Nevermind I thought T-Bone's post was the end of the page, thanks

[Kaboose]

How long until Equinox will give his to me?

[Kaboose]

Equinox's V/LA period is listed in the Activity Overview.

Oh that's nifty! Most town thing you've done the whole game.

[Kaboose]

Equinox's V/LA period is listed in the Activity Overview.

Oh that's nifty! Most town thing you've done the whole game.

Remind me to slag you off for this post after the game.

Noted.

[Kaboose]

@Equinox, Take your time.

@Belisarius, it'll be hard for me to flip scum seeing as you got the other scum role PM.

[Kaboose]

First
----------
T-Bone
Belisaurius
Equinox
----------
Last

Subject to change, of course.

Equinox, Beli, Scripten from most to least.

T-Bone, Scripten, Equinox

How long until Equinox will give his to me?

Depends on what version you want. I've skimmed the thread and have some thoughts simmering in my head, but I haven't had time to actually sit down to process it. Thus, have some thought vomit.

My list is something like T-Bone > Scripten > Kaboose > Belisarius. The only problem is that I'm starting to wonder if T-Bone actually is scum, and he's still first because based on stuff I worked out earlier in the game RedCoyote's actions seemed to suggest T-Bone being scum based on risks and benefits on which I speculated. I need to re-think given that I'm in a similar boat to the other stated positions that T-Bone's posting feels like town. I can elaborate on all of this later when access/time (more like time) isn't as big of an issue. Kaboose and Belisarius are at the other end because I have solid tells I talked about before. Scripten is partly a legacy read from Mathdino and partly because I think he's town but don't have as solid of a reason as the other two.

Maybe it is T-Bone and I'm just paranoid that the puzzle's too easy.

Anyway, there you go. I need to go back and look at what people proposed in other games and see if it has any relation to what RedCoyote proposed here because I suspect he would've suggested something to his/scum's benefit, so this is a self-reminder to do that.

So assuming right now, 3 points for 1st, 2 for 2nd, 1 for 3rd...

T-Bone 10
Beli - 8
Scripten - 7
Equinox - 5

I'd go Beli, Scipten, T-Bone personally.

[Kaboose]

I like Equinox the most, and you and Scripten the least. That's my case.

[Kaboose]

I like Equinox the most, and you and Scripten the least. That's my case.

The problem I have with that is that three of us are town and we need your help come the next day phase to figure out who is the odd one out.

Also, are you essentially guessing that Equinox is going to be night killed, then?

Why would I answer that? Why would I help scum figure out their next night kill? Also what good is my help if the person I'm scum leaning ends up night killed? You'd be in the same spot as you will be with me saying what I just said.

[Kaboose]

Am I right that no one wants to be the second vote? Why havent I been voted on any?

[Kaboose]

Yeah well the deadline is fast approaching and we lose if we no lynch.

What do we need to do to make it appropriate? Two days to lynch me. People aren't talking.

I submitted the night kill last night. Lynch me.

[Kaboose]

I would normally agree with you based on the fact you're mostly right. But in most cases, a no lynch doesn't end the game. This case it does. Which scares me because if we hold off anymore and people don't talk anymore in this game for whatever reason we lose.

I don't want to lose. So I want to make sure you slackers are around at the right time to lynch me.

[Kaboose]

Well of course you will, someone has to make the N3 night kill.

[Kaboose]

T-Bone do you think my lynch would end the game? I know you're not saying that exactly, but what do you think? Am I scum?

[Kaboose]

I do not think you are scum.

If everyone was on L-1 and you had to vote for someone to win, but if you were wrong we lost, who would you vote for?

Belisarius, if you were scum after my lynch who would you night kill?

Scripten if you could only choose between your lynch and equinox's lynch to win, who would you chose?

Equinox if Belisarius and T-Bone were confirmed town, and your choice was between me and scripten, who would you want lynched?

[Kaboose]

Does anyone actually think I'm scum? Right now, imagine the fact it doesn't matter as well.

@T-Bone, I'm so glad someone is willing to talk in this thread! Equinox is pretty much a town read from a lot of people I think. And you're thinking opposite? Are you town? Why are you town? People don't think you're town, how does that make you feel?

[Kaboose]

Why do you assume you would be alive the next day phase?

[Kaboose]

Scripten if you could only choose between your lynch and equinox's lynch to win, who would you chose?

VOTE: Kaboose

There, now scum can't tie the vote at the last minute. All they can do is quickhammer. Assume I will vote anyone who quickhammers right out of the gate tomorrow. No exceptions.

Anyhow, to answer your question, I would obviously choose Equinox. Since I'm town, my lynch would lose us the game. The only possible way to win would be through lynching Equinox, though I do not think she is likely scum.

I admit your question probably was the trickiest, I was just simply coming up with random things to get people talking about whatever. My point here is that in your first sentence:

now scum can't tie the vote at the last minute.

This makes little sense to me because there's only 1 scum left. Even if they voted someone else, there'd be 3 other people out there to cast those last two votes.

Now my point about you assuming you'll be alive is in your third sentence:

Assume I will vote anyone who quickhammers right out of the gate tomorrow.

If any of the three others quick hammer right now. Why do you assume you'd be alive the next day phase to vote for them?

[Kaboose]

beli, T-Bone and eventually Equinox's replacement...

Do you think Scripten assuming he'll be alive on the last day was at all a slip of some type?

[Kaboose]

F16FF, do you know what role Equinox had?

[Kaboose]

@F16FF is the the same role you have?

Also I don't like how you even suggested searching for someone else. Please hammer now.

[Kaboose]

Darn.