NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER

[Pine]

Salutations

I'll do some catch up, will not be reading the whole thread

What do I need to know

[Pine]

That is L-3 on Pine.

Haven't caught up yet, gimme a day

[Pine]

That deadline may be a little tough, actually. I have family obligations all day. It's Christmas week, on top of two jobs

[Pine]

What are your thoughts thus far?
Have you looked at the flipped scum yet?

Only in a cursory manner. When I get home I plan to read their ISOs and do a full vote analysis on them

[Pine]

What is the case on Josh/Pine? The putting off the game by Pine is really scummy.

It's a 200-plus-page game. I'm procrastinating reeeeally hard, and every deadline extension is only making that urge worse. Lemme get through the next couple of days of family shite and I'll be more active

I've been watching what's going on lately, though. Trying to view this as an outsider, but everyone's so entrenched it's hard to read anything decent.

[Pine]

I paid attention to my role PM, and I'm reading the game real-time.

This was kind of my attitude, Thor, and generally my SOP for replacing.

There's less utility in reading a backlog than you think. By now, people have entrenched opinions. Scum can often be secure in a Townread, Town can often be screwed due to confirmation bias. The replacement's role is to look at things with new eyes, and that isn't helped if I rehash the old disputes and draw similar conclusions

So I'm holding off on going archive diving.

[Pine]

I like Pine, there is a hypnotic, mellifluous quality to his posts. I need much more to judge.

Flubber seems legit.

Do we have a claim summary?

Flatterer

Thor, asking people for their opinions lets me know what the established lines are without contaminating my thought process with the backstory that caused them to get there. It also pushes people to commit to a read.

At no point have I said I plan to do a full reread. The only people I'm even going to read in any detail are flipped scum, and I've had about four hours of sleep in the last three days. It's not happening until tomorrow at least

[Pine]

nice IIOA

Attempt to discredit solid analysis before it's finished. Solid scum move

[Pine]

I like it when DGB is Town

[Pine]

I like it when DGB is Town

Never mind, it's multi ball. She could just be scumhunting the other side. Close enough for me to be happy, though

[Pine]

I'm not yet on board about Flubbernugget, and TSO isn't playing the scumgame I've seen from him recently (just finished a game where he was scum). I can see NC and Thor scum though, they've been obstructive and have sought to discredit fresh perspectives

[Pine]

I'm not failing to participate, I'm watching and learning. I haven't had the time between two jobs and family in town to go archive diving, but I have been staying current with what's going on now

[Pine]

They also considered the number, shape, and distribution of bumps on a man's head to be a reliable predictor of criminal behavior

/phrenology

[Pine]

The only viable wagons seem to be Flubber, DGB, and myself. DGB's been super Town since she replaced in, and I'm. It voting for myself or just letting a no lynch happen.

Someone please restate the Flubbernugget case. Concisely, please.

Flubber, this is intent to hammer. Please claim and/or convince me why I shouldn't hammer you

[Pine]

Misrep. I pretty clearly asked for both sides of the story before I decide between no lynch and Flubber

[Pine]

Hey guy, how about not being a dick

I missed the question, and that's not actually a case

As for the question, you are making an assertion on my opinion. I stated that I feel you've been obstructive and discrediting to the replacements, and I stand by it. You've done everything in your power to undercut the validity of what we've said, and made every effort to paint what we do, even quietness, as scummy. I think it's because you're afraid of new opinions and fresh perspectives, which is scummy, as I've said before. I'd be pushing your lynch right now, but this late in the day it's not going to happen

[Pine]

I'm not going quote-trolling at this stage of the day.

Your case is weak and far from comprehensive. Your case amounts to "didn't analyze which kind of scum." That's not a case

Very seriously considering this to be a scum vs scum interaction.

[Pine]

It's not cogdis

We have 14 hours to deadline when there aren't plurality lynches. No lynching is very anti-Town, especially in multiball

In other words, I'm prepared to hammer, but I want to feel good about it

This interaction with Thorscum convinces me that HE thinks Flubber is scum, and is trying to pull together a case. I'm guessing he spotted something in Flubber that he can't really say, because it would be giving himself away in doing so. So he puts together a case made out of spare parts

[Pine]

Cogdis doesn't even make sense. What cross-purposes could I possibly be hiding? If I were Flubber's scumbuddy looking for a reason not to vote him, I'd just lurk through deadline.

[Pine]

I think it's because you're afraid of new opinions and fresh perspectives

Still waiting for yours...

I'll get there when I get there

I think both Pine and Flubber are in fact scum.

Nope

[Pine]

Vote Flubbernugget

@Thor: Consider - I think you're scum. You appear to be putting together a cobbled-together, last-minute case on Flubber. I don't think you'd be doing so against someone you think is Town, too risky. Therefore, I'm guessing you have some kind of inside information. Scum in multiball often have a much clearer idea of who their opponents are than Town does

[Pine]

^hammer

[Pine]

Actually, more than likely you picked up a lie that town wouldn't notice.

For example, scum in multiball can often see stuff that Town doesn't - a team with a tracker or watcher can spot opponent scum claiming VT when they were known to have gone somewhere on a previous night. Scum can suspect SK based on a failed kill. All kinds of stuff.

It's the timing and awkwardness of the attack on Flubber that makes me think it's scum vs scum

[Pine]

Will Ren get banned for posting while he's dead. PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

50 coconuts!

51 coconuts

Higher without going over

[Pine]

I'm a VT

Thor is the last wolf. He caught a Mafia scent (forgive the pun) on Flubber and went for the kill (ugh, metaphor)

In good news, we might not have to deal with a SK

[Pine]

We obviously have no SK at this stage with DGB's flip - and you remain scum, the question is what type of scum.

You should actually claim Mafia even if you are a Wolf, because town and Mafia want to kill Wolves right now - I would sheep a claimed Mafia player today. Are you Mafia? If so I will help defend you, but otherwise you look ungawdly scummy and need rope.

Vote Thor

[Pine]

This is LYLO? How?

Unvote

[Pine]

Oh nvm

There's a lot fewer people left than I thought

Hey, looks like TSO is not-Wolf

2 out of {Thor, Slandaar, Nero Cain, Boonskies}

I'm pretty confident in Thor!Wolf. The more he hollers about Scripten the more I'm sure he's annoyed that whatever scum theatre they did didn't work. The bit with Flubber and his concerted efforts to silence and discredit the replacements clinches it

Need to sort associatives between Scripten, Thor, and the remaining three

PE: I did the math myself but got carried away with other thoughts. Already claimed VT

[Pine]

Slandaar claimed VT

BP neighbor? That sounds like it would fit with balance for Wolf

[Pine]

1-shot JK, 2-shot BP, 2 neighbor

Vs

Even-night roleblock, odd-night rolecop, +something

Seems balanced to me. One's set up for offense, the other for defense

[Pine]

Votes without reasons in LYLO, vote is on his expressed suspect that is less likely to be lynched

Bus buddy, vote Townie

[Pine]

Nope

Bus buddy, vote Townie

Classic

[Pine]

Dude, TSO

His case is based on the fact that all three people who died were on my wagon

Even if I were scum, I wouldn't have control of more than one of those kills

It's a bullshit case

[Pine]

I might have killed one of them, but that also suggests that DGB!Town and the other scumteam obliged me

They were independent kills that have no association

Boon is scum

[Pine]

[4]Pine: Thor665,

Shiro, DrippingGoofball, AxleGreaser

[2]Flubbernugget: Nero Cain, T S O


Unfortunate how all three of these people just happened to die last night, and that Thor now doesn't suspect Pine at all.

Guess what? All 3 of those players were town also!! We wouldn't have switched to Flubber so easily if Pine wasn't a scum slot.

This is what I'm responding to. Town wouldn't make a case like this

[Pine]

I'm not squirming, I'm refuting. One of your central points is extremely falsifiable. If anyone's squirming, it's you transforming from a quiet lurker into an over active burst of energy when your team gets called out

And I'm not calling you scum for your terrible case, I called you scum before that

[Pine]

Wtf are those quotes, Boon?

[Pine]

Votes without reasons in LYLO, vote is on his expressed suspect that is less likely to be lynched

Bus buddy, vote Townie

I didn't suddenly shift gears at your case, I noticed your efforts to bus your buddy, but vote someone else entirely. Your case was tailored to your vote, not the other way around

My guess? You picked out who you perceived as the easiest target and fabricated a case around that selection

[Pine]

there was no reason for the Pine wagon to go from mafia pine to mafia flubber. It was a counterwagon. Flubber was a different alignment. Pine and Flubber are not the same alignment. Pine is a wolf.

This is bullshit. You're suggesting that it was a counter wagon driven by my buddy, when the most I can have is one of those. One person does not a wagon make

Further, your case presupposes that Thor, the leader of the Flubber wagon, was the one doing that, all while attacking and being attacked by me

If you're so certain of Thor that you're using that deduction as a

starting point

for your case on me, you should logically be voting him first, especially given that there's significant support for him

No

You mouthed bussing of your buddy, and selected an entirely different

target

for your mislynch

Also, I'm not Mafia

[Pine]

FUCK FUCK FUCK

That's the second goddamn time I've lost this post. Spent almost an hour on it, then lost battery. Plugged it in, started typing, moved to a different chair, forgot to plug it back in, lost ANOTHER ten minutes.

Here's the TL;DR version

We lose if we kill Mafia today because we cannot win without at LEAST one crosskill. This doesn't mean Mafia should out themselves, it'd be anti-wincon because they'd get NKed. Even a no lynch requires at least one crosskill, because if both target Townies, 2:1:1 Wolf win. Best chance in half an hour of running outcomes is a Wolf lynch, because then we go to 1:3:1. This is especially true because Wolves still have PRs. That could easily fuck up our chances in the crosskill game. I have a lot more thoughts on this, but it's 3 AM, I have work in the morning, and have already typed it twice.

So, to answer your question, Nero, I had initially written a snarky bit about how looking for three suspects when there's only two wolves was dumb, but eliminating possible Mafia as lynchees is important too

So, Wolves. Unlikely to be TSO, that warning about LYLO at day start didn't sound like a Wolf about to win. So two wolves in {Thor, Slandaar, Boon, Nero Cain}. I have a preexisting scumread on Thor due to his antagonism towards the replacements, his eagerness with the Flubber lynch, and his constant worry that the scum theatre between him and Scripten isn't working. He can't be Mafia (leaping onto Flubber like that proves it) so he's Wolf. 5948, where he tries to draw out his remaining opponent, clinches it. That leaves his partner.

I've recently made my case on Boonskies as the other wolf, it needn't be repeated in detail so soon. The key piece is that he clearly selected a target,

then

made his case, instead of the other way around. He also pulled the classic bus-buddy/vote-Townie trick, and the cog-dis of his case further convinces me

Let's examine other possibilities anyway. I've had a pretty reasonable Townread on Nero Cain since the start, despite a hiccup at 5656. He might be a low-and-slow Mafia, but I'm getting a kind of frenetic vibe from him that fits with a smart Townie in a game that might boil down to kingmaker even if he plays all of his cards right. Slandaar's always been hard to read for me, since our first encounter in Rolling in the Deep. His reads are all over the map, BUT have a great deal of reasoning behind them.

In my opinion, Mafia is probably between TSO (who I'm holding off a deeper analysis of b/c today's focus is wolves) and Slandaar. {Thor, Boon, Slandaar, TSO, NC}. Thor and Boon are Wolves, NC is Town, Slandaar is scumhunting, TSO is hard to read. Gun to my head, I'd say Slandaar Mafia. He stayed away from that Flubber wagon like it was poison

Best guess?

Thor+Boon Wolves
Slandaar Mafia
NC, TSO, Pine Town

Thor's my choice for today

[Pine]

That was not a TL;DR version. I suck at those

The original was twice as long, and I hadn't finished

[Pine]

That confused me also

[Pine]

Scripten was voting for Cho, Thor and Josh B and Ren's slot has voted for TSO, Cho, and Thor. Flubber has voted Thor and Boon.

so both teams voted him. I cleared Shiro for the same reasoning and that worked out fine.

This is weak. It wholly discounts the notion of bussing. People do it

[Pine]

HOLY FUCK IT'S THOR AND SLANDAAR!

unvote

Translation: I picked the wrong target to fabricate a huge bullshit case on, better pick a different one. I know! Let's redirect to the more likely Mafia!

[Pine]

Then vote for Thor

[Pine]

I think that you're Mafia zeroing in on the one you can't crosskill, and I can respect that. From a Mafia perspective, their only vague chance is to lynch Wolf, crosskill Wolf, not get shot

Hell, I can support that. Just shoot Thor, mmkay?

Also, I continue to lol at the fact that Thor's only real defense is "I wouldn't do that, would I?" Yes, of course you would. Especially if you thought it would make you look like you weren't partners. Good God, WIFOM much?

[Pine]

I think he's probably not BP.

It's quite risky to claim BP into a full game when it's a fairly common role and can be CC'ed safely.

No?

More importantly, there's really quite little to gain from fake claiming it. It's probably true

Slandaar, I'm Mafia-reading you mostly by PoE, some gut. Between you and TSO, you're more likely

Thor, any argument based on "Would I do this" is definitionally WIFOM.

[Pine]

Thank you for agreeing with me

"I'm not scum because I wouldn't do that" is a great reason to do EXACTLY that thing as scum.

WIFOM

[Pine]

There's a big difference. I don't care about the Reinoe lynch, that could have been bussing, but bussing Flubber when you're one phase from LYLO when you have another viable victim and no compelling reason to change is WAY different from saying "I wouldn't buddy a scum partner days ago"

Trying to conflate the two is just not plausible

[Pine]

[Pine]

Neither. We're analyzing others' actions, not trying to push our own versions of our actions

Thor - serious question. How do you define 'WIFOM'?

[Pine]

lol scum

[Pine]

lol scum

scum claim, let's lynch it.

Asshat claim, let's get it to fuck off

[Pine]

Yeah, it is. Recently finished a game like that

[Pine]

I don't find you trolly

I find you scum

[Pine]

I'm not voting anyone because it's LYLO. Town comes to a consensus before voting in LYLO

Further, I have asserted you as my first choice, placing a de facto vote there

[Pine]

No

Thor and Boon are our Wolves, we need to lynch Boon so Thor has a chance of being crosskilled

[Pine]

No

Thor and Boon are our Wolves, we need to lynch Boon so Thor has a chance of being crosskilled

I agree.

Pinesy, I am not mafia. With this new information who is?

Probably TSO. As previously stated, scum is narrowed down in my mind to 3 of {Thor, Boon, TSO, Slandaar}. Remember, we've got 3 scum out of six people, so fully half of everyone is scum. I can eliminate myself, Townread Nero, and then we've got a scum-rich pool

Thor and Boon's actions and attacks are way too coordinated to not be buddies. That makes them wolves.

{TSO, Slandaar} = 1 Mafia

[Pine]

^That said, it's probably still Slandaar

[Pine]

Bullshit. It's not really LYLO. Wolves are playing it safe to try and avoid being NKed. Lynch me, and they only win if

neither

of them gets NKed

Still Thor and Boon. Now that the connections between them have them pointed out, they're distancing.

[Pine]

Vote Boon

[Pine]

Yes. Please tell me more about how you were pushing people to shoot your bulletproof buddy

[Pine]

And enough with the bullshit about how, just because once upon a time you attacked someone or buddies them, that you can't be their buddy. Bussing exists. White knighting buddies exists. Talking about what you would or wouldn't do as scum is engaging in the basest WIFOM

[Pine]

You really are just throwing everything at the wall in the hopes that something sticks, aren't you?

Thor and I have been scum reading each other hard since I replaced in.mcharacterizing it as something new and nefarious is just misrepresentative

[Pine]

Thor/Slandaar/Nero does not make up the wolf buddies, as they would have hammered you and won. I'm really confident with my vote.

1) I'm not at L-1
2) It isn't LYLO
3) Wolves still have to survive Mafia night kill

Your argument is invalid

I'm

really

getting the impression that Boon thinks I'm Mafia. That's really the only way he would think that hammering me = endgame

[Pine]

That was pathetic.

Okay?
It still showed what I needed to prove that buddying was happening.
And also seems to imply you really aren't reading Scripten...like, at all.
Do you think that is an incorrect conclusion from the info I've seen?

No one ever questioned that the buddying happened. It's the absurd assertion that it makes you Town that we scoffed at. I mean, that's literally the best you can come up with to demonstrate your Town bona fides, and it relies entirely on your self-meta and "Trust me bro"

[Pine]

I want Thor's head on a platter. He's definitely, definitely scum

Boon needs to go first, though, I can't shoot him

[Pine]

Of course you have

[Pine]

Some actual participation and commitment from NC and TSO would be lovely

[Pine]

Fuck it

I am a Mafia Goon

Lynch me and Town loses

Thor + Boon

[Pine]

I'm not Mafia (still VT). I was trying to draw out a Mafia soft-counterclaim while gauging potential Wolf bloodthirstiness

Thor has more or less claimed Wolf at this point. I am a little less confident in my Boonskies!Wolf read now. He could be Mafia (that instant NO YOU AREN'T and subsequent backpedal, but 2-shot BP in addition to the roleblock/rolecop we've seen doesn't make sense) but I don't give a shit about Mafia today. That's for the Wolves to puzzle out, and Town to deal with if we survive the night

So, the matter of Thor's partner. It's still not TSO, as much as his extreme interest in the Mafia kills and QT might make me want to think. That leaves Nero Cain and Slandaar, though Boon is still an option I suppose

Unvote
Vote Thor

[Pine]

Seconded. I'd prefer a good hard prod to a force-replace, nurturing a replacement at this stage would be nuts

[Pine]

Boon was crazy scummy up until he put the brakes on following my gambit. He reacted Mafiaish to it

[Pine]

*Twitch* I hate several aspects of the last couple of pages

What a pity it is Pine didn't stick with that claim of his.

I actually agree - if he was town it was an idiot gambit that does nothing. If he's scum, then he sure as hell shouldn't have backed off of it - it was good Wolf play.

Sticking with the Mafia claim would have been TERRIBLE Town play. You're working really hard to justify a preconceived plan of attack, instead of arriving at a verdict based on the evidence. That inversion is pure scum. I mean, you're suggesting that I abandoned a good play that was getting suspicion off of me instead of abandoning a bad play that would get me shot. That's just stupid, and the acrobatics necessary to justify an attack based on that are extraordinary

WAITT!!!! PINE CAN'T BE A VT LIKE HE CLAIMS!!!

there are 8 spots not in the neighborhoods.

2 are VT, 2 are town PR's, 2 are mafia slots that have flipped. The final two are werewolf slots. Pine/Slandaar are the werewolf team. no doubt about it.

This doesn't make sense. I'm back to Thor/Boon. They're collaborating too much, and making setup spec assertions that can't be supported

[Pine]

I'll comment about the Wolf-reaction when not phone posting, that'll require quoting.

Claiming Mafia was good as Town because it produced a LOT of reactions that can be sorted through, and had a chance of producing an actual Mafia counterclaim. Withdrawing the claim was good because it means Wolves won't focus on me instead of the real Mafia

Tell me Thor - what possible remote motive could I have had for withdrawing the Mafia claim as a Wolf?

[Pine]

Humph. Fine, that makes some sense, I suppose. They weren't my motives, but they're reasonable from your perspective. My actual motives remain as stated

[Pine]

Your setup spec is self-serving, would have to reread reactions

[Pine]

I would like an answer Nero.

the remaining scum are you, pine and Boons. I believe that Boons is your buddy 'cause he's calling you wolf yet is avoiding lynching you at all costs.

Then you should be voting Boon. He's bulletproof, and can't be crosskilled

Wolf Neighbors vs Mafia Power would be an interesting balance

[Pine]

That doesn't make it balanced. Neighbors plus 1-shot powers would make sense

Oh wait. You claimed a 1-shot

[Pine]

Oh, wait, no. You're claiming I, and my wolf partner, are 1-shot neighbors, and all wolves are neighbors, vs. Mafia who none of them are 1-shot or Neighbors.
Is that right?

I'm saying Rolecop/Roleblock + Goon would be balanced against Neighbors who have some other powers. 1-shot Jailkeep and 2-shot BP would be balanced against the Mafia power we've seen

[Pine]

I still don't think there are four plain VT's outside of the neighbors.

I still think your setup spec is self-serving. It is designed to support a notion you've already arrived at

[Pine]

I'm telling you dude. Thor and Boon are Wolfbuddies. Notice how they have not only left each other alone, but their attacks are eerily coordinated? Almost makes me think Encryptor. Maybe the bulletproof claim is bullshit designed to discourage crosskills. 2-shot is kind of unusual

[Pine]

@Pine - what are your thoughts on Slandaar?

I'm back to him being the most likely Mafia candidate. Boon threw me for a bit, but his reversion to collaborating with you and my version of setup spec puts it back to Thor/Boon vs Slandaar

TSO: Why does your third Mafia have to be a PR? It's more likely a Goon. Neither scum setup is really especially powerful, and neither has anything to block investigation.

[Pine]

@Pine - what are your thoughts on Slandaar?

I'm back to him being the most likely Mafia candidate. Boon threw me for a bit, but his reversion to collaborating with you and my version of setup spec puts it back to Thor/Boon vs Slandaar

TSO: Why does your third Mafia have to be a PR? It's more likely a Goon. Neither scum setup is really especially powerful, and neither has anything to block investigation.

Who do you mean by you? I was the one to ask you the question, and I can't really collaborate by myself.

Clearly I was referring to you and Thor, whom I have been observing you work with all week, my poor phrasing notwithstanding

[Pine]

No, TSO is the one you've been working so hard to manipulate. TSO is clearly the free agent here (reinforcing my perception that TSO and NC are my Townbuddies) and appears in the uninformed minority

[Pine]

No, TSO is the one you've been working so hard to manipulate. TSO is clearly the free agent here (reinforcing my perception that TSO and NC are my Townbuddies) and appears in the uninformed minority

NC's not town.

What left field did you draw that conclusion out of?

[Pine]

This is incredibly frustrating.

I feel like 3-player coalitions on the identity of the wolves keeps popping up, but failing to get that fourth vote.

In is case, Nero, Slandaar and I are all in agreement about Boon. Thor's not on board because it's his buddy. Boon won't vote for himself. And TSO is off the reservation doing whatever he thinks this day of the week

Thor + Boon
Mafia is probably Slandaar, though I wouldn't feel offended if people were guessing it to be me

[Pine]

What is your take on Boon calling Slandaar wolf but being so hesitant to vote him?

Shrug. He's barely had Slandaar as a secondary wolf read. He probably suspects that Slandaar's really just a VT, and isn't concerned with him. In other words, it isn't an ignore-your-buddy play, it's a lack of conviction.

Nero, remind me where you stand on Thor and why?

[Pine]

Slandaar as Mafia through PoE, mostly. Thor + Boon wolf means {TSO, NC, Slandaar} Mafia. NC is the Towniest of Town. Of {TSO, Slandaar}, Slandaar is scummier and has been acting very calculated today

[Pine]

No, it isn't 'based on that.' I'm not Mafia-hunting today, you are. Lynching Mafia loses the game for us and wins the game for you. Slandaar is my best offhand guess, and I'll look at it closer if the necessity arises. Day 6, if we get one, will be a massively changed landscape

The ONLY way that Mafia-hunting will be productive, for the entire rest of the game, is if we lynch Wolf, a Wolf gets shot, and Mafia doesn't get shot. Even then, half the player list, possibly myself included, will be gone.

So I'm not putting a lot of effort in until I need to

[Pine]

Misspoke; Mafia-hunting can also be productive from a MYLO perspective, in that we don't want to lynch that person today. However, that exclusionary process is FAR less productive than the inclusionary process of wolf hunting, which is what practically every post I've made today has been devoted to

[Pine]

No

Wolf hunting will increase the odds of catching a Wolf. Not-a-Wolf is the only designation that matters today. In the slim chance that we end up in a Town:Town:Mafia LYLO, which is Mafia's only hope aside from Kingmaker, then it will matter.

You're kind of blinded by your obsessive need to find the last Mafia, aren't you? You need to either lynch them today or shoot them tonight, because Wolves will probably lose a Kingmaker decision

[Pine]

Yes, I agree, 'not a wolf' is useful.
Oddly, we have relational information for Mafia that we lack for town. Crazy that.
Also, we have scummy looking people that need to be sorted as either wolf or not a wolf - again, maiking spotting the Mafia useful.

In any case - again - what was my wolf reaction? Are you intentionally ducking responding to this question?

Yep

Proving what I saw is a lot of work, and I don't fucking feel like it

TL;DR is that you got all frenzied, pried for a bunch of information, and didn't actually let up much despite mouthing the words about a Mafia vote being anti-Town. In other words, I felt you were getting really excited to night kill me and wrap the game up. Wolf team' stop goal today (other than staying alive) is to identify the Mafia (another reason I don't feel like indulging you regarding my Mafia reads,) and I just handed you the answer.

[Pine]

Not engaging on this. My Wolf read was strong way before this. It's a case of subtext rather than anything overt that you said.

[Pine]

Cool story. How about getting on board

[Pine]

Just vote Boon FOR GREAT JUSTICE

[Pine]

Why the fuck not

We literally CANNOT lynch the BULLETPROOF WOLF without your help

Take your meds or whatever and reevaluate him

[Pine]

Entirely

Wolves have defensive powers, Mafia have offensive powers

[Pine]

so it's Thor/Boon?

FUCKING YES. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, YES

because we have studiously ignored even wagoning Thor today and this Boon flashwagon feels like shit

your wagon is always derailed
Thor's wagon is always derailed
Boon shows no sign of being derailed

why is this

My wagon gets derailed because I'm Town, and arguments to the contrary have been absolute shite

Thor's wagon ONLY gets derailed because Boon (the Bulletproof, WHO CAN'T BE CROSSKILLED) is a BETTER lynch. We could lynch Thor TODAY if we wanted to, I don't think ANYONE has a Townread on him

Boon's wagon IS derailed, BY YOU. Six players, two wolves, wolves won't vote for him, that means we need to be UNANIMOUS against him. WE ARE, except for YOU. That's a SIGN OF DERAILMENT

I think I want Slandaar dead today, real talk.

Vote: Slandaar

Slandaar is more likely Mafia, which is a game-losing lynch for us

Look, I get that you don't like the setup of an offensively powered team and a defensively powered team, I get that. But double-ISO Thor and Boon for today. Everything they do is in concert, they never EVER consider voting for one another, and go after the same targets

[Pine]

Put your money where your mouth is then, Thor

Vote for Boon

Or is bussing in MYLO too risky?

[Pine]

Where's the dodge?

By the way, the crux of my argument is that you stubbornly refuse to consider even the possibility that Boon might be a Wolf, and I see that trend continues unabated. Why would you? You can make your camp elsewhere, and force us into a position where we need unanimous agreement on either of you. There's practically no reason not to

[Pine]

I made a case on Boon, independent of you, near day start. This was well before I noticed that you and he were subtly working together ("lockste" is your word and a gross exaggeration of my point). Read please. I do not have the patience to pull the quotes you're too lazy (and too scum) to go read

I didn't dodge anything. I really have no idea what the hell you're talking about. Rephrase the question in a non-stupid manner

[Pine]

Am I?

Unvote
Vote Boonskiies

My mistake

Look at the scum jump on the opportunity to lynch Slandaar. They think he's Mafia too

I swear to god, TSO. Your bullheadedness is going to lose this game for Town

[Pine]

I'll even go so far as to point out that, in my belief, Boon spent the first half of this phase trying to lynch me.

Oh really?

The first time Boon voted for you, he unvoted 17 minutes later

The second time he voted for you, he changed his vote ONE minute later

The third time he voted for you, it stayed there for a

whopping

99 minutes, following my Mafia fakeclaim, during which time he posted constantly and didn't take his eyes off that vote

Each and every time, he hovered over his vote, ready to take it off at the first sign of trouble. The first time wasn't even until I'd heckled him for DAYS over the classic scum maneuver of presenting a bus and a target, and never going after the bus

So no, he didn't 'spend the day trying to get you lynched'. He never even meaningfully voted for you. Instead, he kept saying 'Thor and Pine,' and pushed exactly one side of that equation

[Pine]

Thor, I don't answer

inane

questions that are entirely opinion and interpretation based in the first place. When you go off about something I can prove, I'm more than happy to wallpost

Eat proof, wolf

[Pine]

TSO, you need to seriously consider the above. You've had your blinders on all day, time to remove them

[Pine]

Hmm. Pine and Thor could be wolf buddies. Bus a buddy, vote a townie. CLASSIC.

Except I actually have been pushing Thor. I had to be convinced off of him and onto you (earlier in the day, not the recent switch)

Didn't you JUST heckle me for parking my vote on Thor?

Yeah. Sure sounds like I'm disingenuous

[Pine]

Although, the fact that wolves haven't pounced on Slandaar shows that he is not mafia, I believe.

And this is bullshit, by the way. It only works if you and TSO are both Town, and wolves think they can quicklynch without giving themselves away

[Pine]

What 'case' is Boon presenting?

Basically any of them - though I had a lengthy discussion with him earlier today and if you look at his recent iso you'll see a swathe of self-quotes from him with his 'case' such as it exists.
You could also iso Nero for a conversation with me about how he's reacting to Boon's thought process.
Also, there is some vague sideways attack from Pine out there dinging on the way Boon weak attacked me and then 'followed me to some extent in a way I shouldn't describe as lockstep, but is apparently similar enough for Pine to call scummy - insert your own word choice here'.

Y'know, that stuff.

Lol

You went really far out of your way to rephrase that in a sarcastic manner, didn't you?

Summary of case (in a non-awkwardly sarcastic phrasing): Boon and Thor have been very clearly working together all day. They've been trying to ignore one another, except to vaguely list the other as a suspect. They don't, however, pursue those suspicions. Thor hasn't voted for Boon at all, and Boon has only voted for Thor for very brief moments, and then unvotes when he goes offline. They often attack the same person, agree on a lot of things, and appear focused on the same objectives. They are independently scummy, but taken together, are clearly a Wolf team

[Pine]

Meant to post these together

I need to work unfortunately but I do have a fantastic case I have put together over the last few days on Thor/Boon to write up this evening. Then we can all sit around and have a nice discussion and finally lynch.

I look forward to that, we've been on hold for some time for you to offer thoughts and for Pine to find a computer.

I've posted my case. I'm not reporting it

again

. My case is based on my interpretation of events, so I'm not spending an hour or so rephrasing what I already said with nice quotes and diagrams, just for you to say NOPE and dismiss it. No one else is whining about this except you, and quite frankly, I don't give a flying rat's ass what you think

[Pine]

Agreement =! Collusion

This is an interesting look into the psychology of your position. Right now, it's very much an "us vs them" fight for you, isn't it? There's the urge to lump wholesale everyone into the 'enemy' category, which makes looking Town tough. In contrast, I am quite well aware that Slandaar may not be (probably isn't) my Townbuddy. Hell, if we weren't in this weird MYLO, I'd probably be pushing for him first, to eliminate one source of night kills

[Pine]

If anything, this most likely shows that Pine/Slandaar are the same alignment, and Thor/Boon are most likely the same alignment. Difference is, Thor and I are both town.

And what happened to your Thor/Pine argument? Oh right. It disappeared in a puff of necessity when the chips are down. Thor goes from your second-strongest scumread to your strongest Townread in a blink

Ah, the pack mentality

[Pine]

Hmm. Pine and Thor could be wolf buddies. Bus a buddy, vote a townie. CLASSIC.

Half a day is enough for a total flip. Sure

[Pine]

Boon is engaging superflail mode

PE: TSO, where are you on re-evaluating

[Pine]

Thor, you seem to just not understand that people are not as attached to your narrow and insipid questions as you are. See, you ask some stupid or opinion-based shit, we turn our noses up at it, and you use that as an excuse to shut down and not do anything but bitch about people ignoring your questions

[Pine]

^Mafiascumposting

[Pine]

I've actually become more comfortable with a Slandaar lynch than a Pine one.

Didn't really register the implications of this till I reread it

Translation: Momentum seems to be headed toward this person (who is not me or my buddy) rather than this other person this person (who is not me or my buddy). If Boon were Town, he'd be pushing his strongly-held views, not going for the easier lynch

[Pine]

Actually,the end of Slandaar's wall is a challenge that anyone who thinks you AREN'T a wolf needs to state a good reason why. So...no

[Pine]

And apparently "a few days" is "the longest time" since he switched over to declaring Thor confirmed Town, except when he wants to list Thor/Pine and Thor/NC wolf combos as possibilities

[Pine]

Meta is a useful tool to players who know each other well. When I'm pointed to meta with a player I know not at all, I assume it's some kind of manipulation

[Pine]

Thoughts on Thor/Boon containing exactly one scum?

You make an intriguing case

Some time when I'm not really really tired, I'll step back and review it objectively

[Pine]

I'm a village idiot character. I do stupid things. I started with Thor and Pine because I trust in DGB! It's my main reason I'm so strong on Pine wolf.

So you're not responsible for your actions. Mmkay

[Pine]

Wtf are you on, Boon? That doesn't make any sense at all

[Pine]

I hate the fact the you keep reading my post as me calling you mafia.

It's because he is. He's predisposed to thinking that

[Pine]

I hate the fact the you keep reading my post as me calling you mafia.

It's because he is. He's predisposed to thinking that

Wait, that was at Slandaar, or...?

[Pine]

I just find nothing you are doing town at all - you're so concerned on winning arguments that you resort to bullshit semantics.

Plus, you're in every Wolf team I think of.

Sigh

No

Even if he is wolf, Boon is a better lynch because BULLETPROOF

[Pine]

Well, I'm extremely nervous about you voting for Slandaar, as I think he's Mafia

[Pine]

Slandaar's going for Nero now. Awesome. Pine's trying to talk people out of it. Awesome.

Is there anyone you haven't tried to frame me as partners with?

Be more scum

[Pine]

Slandaar's going for Nero now. Awesome. Pine's trying to talk people out of it. Awesome.

Is there anyone you haven't tried to frame me as partners with?

Be more scum

I mean, seriously. I can't even tell whether you're trying to imply I'm buddies with Nero or Slandaar in that quote. Anything that isn't you, amirite?

[Pine]

That doesn't look like a slip, it looks like miscounting. I mean, seriously, I think he's mafiascum, but that's a ridiculous 'slip' to hang your hat on

I have a Townread on Nero, Slandaar. He's not wolf

[Pine]

Goddamnit TSO, you need to reevaluate Boon

A Slandaar!Mafia lynch loses the game for us

[Pine]

Slandaar, if you think NC is the other wolf, just shoot him tonight

Get back on Boon

[Pine]

...

Nope. Last-ditch wolf ploy. Real!Mafia wouldn't care, because screw Town. Wolf would make a claim like that, because they have a partner to carry on the side. Solo Mafia is in ad hoc SK mode, and has to keep up the pretense

Besides, the only way you're Mafia is if you completely faked the BP claim

[Pine]

it would be goon neighbor, wouldn't it?

What?

[Pine]

This is me not hammering Slandaar. A Mafia flip from him should clear me as Wolf

Unvote
Vote Thor

Look, at this point none of these vanity wagons are going through. A Slandaar lynch could happen, and that scares me, as I'm pretty sure he's Mafia. We ALL agree (more or less) on Thor. Let's not have an anti-Town lynch

[Pine]

Welp, when Slandaar flips wolf, I think it's pretty obvious Pine is the partner, with the slight possibility that it's Nero.

Umm, no. Slandaar is

Mafia

. If/when we get to a D6 that still involves both Slandaar and I, I'll happily put the noose around his neck

[Pine]

I think you somewhat misunderstand the principles of this lylo.

Why were you voting Boons and then weakening that wagon to vote me at the 11th hour?

The principle of this MYLO is that we need to lynch a wolf. My preferred wolf lynch isn't going to happen, and a game-ending mafialynch might. I'll go for the OTHER wolf, whom there is wider consensus on, instead. That's pretty obvious, actually

[Pine]

It doesn't. Everything about your D5 play says you're a wolf

Slandaar, you vanity wagon on Nero isn't going to happen. He's too Town. Lynch Thor with me

Nero, same to you

Boon, time to bus

TSO, I don't expect you to be anything other than your usual stubborn self, but a constructive vote would be super

[Pine]

I've explained

repeatedly

why I think you're scum. Continually saying I haven't doesn't make the case go away

[Pine]

And yes, you're a last-minute abort counterwagon to Slandaar. I am

convinced

that a Slandaar leads to a Town loss

[Pine]

The fact that both wolves desperately want Slandaar dead is practically proof that this is a Mafia lynch

[Pine]

I'm not yet on board about Flubbernugget, and TSO isn't playing the scumgame I've seen from him recently (just finished a game where he was scum). I can see NC and Thor scum though, they've been obstructive and have sought to discredit fresh perspectives

Hey guy, how about not being a dick

I missed the question, and that's not actually a case

As for the question, you are making an assertion on my opinion. I stated that I feel you've been obstructive and discrediting to the replacements, and I stand by it. You've done everything in your power to undercut the validity of what we've said, and made every effort to paint what we do, even quietness, as scummy. I think it's because you're afraid of new opinions and fresh perspectives, which is scummy, as I've said before. I'd be pushing your lynch right now, but this late in the day it's not going to happen

I'm not going quote-trolling at this stage of the day.

Your case is weak and far from comprehensive. Your case amounts to "didn't analyze which kind of scum." That's not a case

Very seriously considering this to be a scum vs scum interaction.

It's not cogdis

We have 14 hours to deadline when there aren't plurality lynches. No lynching is very anti-Town, especially in multiball

In other words, I'm prepared to hammer, but I want to feel good about it

This interaction with Thorscum convinces me that HE thinks Flubber is scum, and is trying to pull together a case. I'm guessing he spotted something in Flubber that he can't really say, because it would be giving himself away in doing so. So he puts together a case made out of spare parts

Vote Flubbernugget

@Thor: Consider - I think you're scum. You appear to be putting together a cobbled-together, last-minute case on Flubber. I don't think you'd be doing so against someone you think is Town, too risky. Therefore, I'm guessing you have some kind of inside information. Scum in multiball often have a much clearer idea of who their opponents are than Town does

We obviously have no SK at this stage with DGB's flip - and you remain scum, the question is what type of scum.

You should actually claim Mafia even if you are a Wolf, because town and Mafia want to kill Wolves right now - I would sheep a claimed Mafia player today. Are you Mafia? If so I will help defend you, but otherwise you look ungawdly scummy and need rope.

Vote Thor

Votes without reasons in LYLO, vote is on his expressed suspect that is less likely to be lynched

Bus buddy, vote Townie

Nope

Bus buddy, vote Townie

Classic

FUCK FUCK FUCK

That's the second goddamn time I've lost this post. Spent almost an hour on it, then lost battery. Plugged it in, started typing, moved to a different chair, forgot to plug it back in, lost ANOTHER ten minutes.

Here's the TL;DR version

We lose if we kill Mafia today because we cannot win without at LEAST one crosskill. This doesn't mean Mafia should out themselves, it'd be anti-wincon because they'd get NKed. Even a no lynch requires at least one crosskill, because if both target Townies, 2:1:1 Wolf win. Best chance in half an hour of running outcomes is a Wolf lynch, because then we go to 1:3:1. This is especially true because Wolves still have PRs. That could easily fuck up our chances in the crosskill game. I have a lot more thoughts on this, but it's 3 AM, I have work in the morning, and have already typed it twice.

So, to answer your question, Nero, I had initially written a snarky bit about how looking for three suspects when there's only two wolves was dumb, but eliminating possible Mafia as lynchees is important too

So, Wolves. Unlikely to be TSO, that warning about LYLO at day start didn't sound like a Wolf about to win. So two wolves in {Thor, Slandaar, Boon, Nero Cain}. I have a preexisting scumread on Thor due to his antagonism towards the replacements, his eagerness with the Flubber lynch, and his constant worry that the scum theatre between him and Scripten isn't working. He can't be Mafia (leaping onto Flubber like that proves it) so he's Wolf. 5948, where he tries to draw out his remaining opponent, clinches it. That leaves his partner.

I've recently made my case on Boonskies as the other wolf, it needn't be repeated in detail so soon. The key piece is that he clearly selected a target,

then

made his case, instead of the other way around. He also pulled the classic bus-buddy/vote-Townie trick, and the cog-dis of his case further convinces me

Let's examine other possibilities anyway. I've had a pretty reasonable Townread on Nero Cain since the start, despite a hiccup at 5656. He might be a low-and-slow Mafia, but I'm getting a kind of frenetic vibe from him that fits with a smart Townie in a game that might boil down to kingmaker even if he plays all of his cards right. Slandaar's always been hard to read for me, since our first encounter in Rolling in the Deep. His reads are all over the map, BUT have a great deal of reasoning behind them.

In my opinion, Mafia is probably between TSO (who I'm holding off a deeper analysis of b/c today's focus is wolves) and Slandaar. {Thor, Boon, Slandaar, TSO, NC}. Thor and Boon are Wolves, NC is Town, Slandaar is scumhunting, TSO is hard to read. Gun to my head, I'd say Slandaar Mafia. He stayed away from that Flubber wagon like it was poison

Best guess?

Thor+Boon Wolves
Slandaar Mafia
NC, TSO, Pine Town

Thor's my choice for today

And enough with the bullshit about how, just because once upon a time you attacked someone or buddies them, that you can't be their buddy. Bussing exists. White knighting buddies exists. Talking about what you would or wouldn't do as scum is engaging in the basest WIFOM

That was pathetic.

Okay?
It still showed what I needed to prove that buddying was happening.
And also seems to imply you really aren't reading Scripten...like, at all.
Do you think that is an incorrect conclusion from the info I've seen?

No one ever questioned that the buddying happened. It's the absurd assertion that it makes you Town that we scoffed at. I mean, that's literally the best you can come up with to demonstrate your Town bona fides, and it relies entirely on your self-meta and "Trust me bro"

I'm not Mafia (still VT). I was trying to draw out a Mafia soft-counterclaim while gauging potential Wolf bloodthirstiness

Thor has more or less claimed Wolf at this point. I am a little less confident in my Boonskies!Wolf read now. He could be Mafia (that instant NO YOU AREN'T and subsequent backpedal, but 2-shot BP in addition to the roleblock/rolecop we've seen doesn't make sense) but I don't give a shit about Mafia today. That's for the Wolves to puzzle out, and Town to deal with if we survive the night

So, the matter of Thor's partner. It's still not TSO, as much as his extreme interest in the Mafia kills and QT might make me want to think. That leaves Nero Cain and Slandaar, though Boon is still an option I suppose

Unvote
Vote Thor

*Twitch* I hate several aspects of the last couple of pages

What a pity it is Pine didn't stick with that claim of his.

I actually agree - if he was town it was an idiot gambit that does nothing. If he's scum, then he sure as hell shouldn't have backed off of it - it was good Wolf play.

Sticking with the Mafia claim would have been TERRIBLE Town play. You're working really hard to justify a preconceived plan of attack, instead of arriving at a verdict based on the evidence. That inversion is pure scum. I mean, you're suggesting that I abandoned a good play that was getting suspicion off of me instead of abandoning a bad play that would get me shot. That's just stupid, and the acrobatics necessary to justify an attack based on that are extraordinary

WAITT!!!! PINE CAN'T BE A VT LIKE HE CLAIMS!!!

there are 8 spots not in the neighborhoods.

2 are VT, 2 are town PR's, 2 are mafia slots that have flipped. The final two are werewolf slots. Pine/Slandaar are the werewolf team. no doubt about it.

This doesn't make sense. I'm back to Thor/Boon. They're collaborating too much, and making setup spec assertions that can't be supported

I'm telling you dude. Thor and Boon are Wolfbuddies. Notice how they have not only left each other alone, but their attacks are eerily coordinated? Almost makes me think Encryptor. Maybe the bulletproof claim is bullshit designed to discourage crosskills. 2-shot is kind of unusual

No

Wolf hunting will increase the odds of catching a Wolf. Not-a-Wolf is the only designation that matters today. In the slim chance that we end up in a Town:Town:Mafia LYLO, which is Mafia's only hope aside from Kingmaker, then it will matter.

You're kind of blinded by your obsessive need to find the last Mafia, aren't you? You need to either lynch them today or shoot them tonight, because Wolves will probably lose a Kingmaker decision

Yes, I agree, 'not a wolf' is useful.
Oddly, we have relational information for Mafia that we lack for town. Crazy that.
Also, we have scummy looking people that need to be sorted as either wolf or not a wolf - again, maiking spotting the Mafia useful.

In any case - again - what was my wolf reaction? Are you intentionally ducking responding to this question?

Yep

Proving what I saw is a lot of work, and I don't fucking feel like it

TL;DR is that you got all frenzied, pried for a bunch of information, and didn't actually let up much despite mouthing the words about a Mafia vote being anti-Town. In other words, I felt you were getting really excited to night kill me and wrap the game up. Wolf team' stop goal today (other than staying alive) is to identify the Mafia (another reason I don't feel like indulging you regarding my Mafia reads,) and I just handed you the answer.

so it's Thor/Boon?

FUCKING YES. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, YES

because we have studiously ignored even wagoning Thor today and this Boon flashwagon feels like shit

your wagon is always derailed
Thor's wagon is always derailed
Boon shows no sign of being derailed

why is this

My wagon gets derailed because I'm Town, and arguments to the contrary have been absolute shite

Thor's wagon ONLY gets derailed because Boon (the Bulletproof, WHO CAN'T BE CROSSKILLED) is a BETTER lynch. We could lynch Thor TODAY if we wanted to, I don't think ANYONE has a Townread on him

Boon's wagon IS derailed, BY YOU. Six players, two wolves, wolves won't vote for him, that means we need to be UNANIMOUS against him. WE ARE, except for YOU. That's a SIGN OF DERAILMENT

I think I want Slandaar dead today, real talk.

Vote: Slandaar

Slandaar is more likely Mafia, which is a game-losing lynch for us

Look, I get that you don't like the setup of an offensively powered team and a defensively powered team, I get that. But double-ISO Thor and Boon for today. Everything they do is in concert, they never EVER consider voting for one another, and go after the same targets

Put your money where your mouth is then, Thor

Vote for Boon

Or is bussing in MYLO too risky?

Where's the dodge?

By the way, the crux of my argument is that you stubbornly refuse to consider even the possibility that Boon might be a Wolf, and I see that trend continues unabated. Why would you? You can make your camp elsewhere, and force us into a position where we need unanimous agreement on either of you. There's practically no reason not to

I'll even go so far as to point out that, in my belief, Boon spent the first half of this phase trying to lynch me.

Oh really?

The first time Boon voted for you, he unvoted 17 minutes later

The second time he voted for you, he changed his vote ONE minute later

The third time he voted for you, it stayed there for a

whopping

99 minutes, following my Mafia fakeclaim, during which time he posted constantly and didn't take his eyes off that vote

Each and every time, he hovered over his vote, ready to take it off at the first sign of trouble. The first time wasn't even until I'd heckled him for DAYS over the classic scum maneuver of presenting a bus and a target, and never going after the bus

So no, he didn't 'spend the day trying to get you lynched'. He never even meaningfully voted for you. Instead, he kept saying 'Thor and Pine,' and pushed exactly one side of that equation

What 'case' is Boon presenting?

Basically any of them - though I had a lengthy discussion with him earlier today and if you look at his recent iso you'll see a swathe of self-quotes from him with his 'case' such as it exists.
You could also iso Nero for a conversation with me about how he's reacting to Boon's thought process.
Also, there is some vague sideways attack from Pine out there dinging on the way Boon weak attacked me and then 'followed me to some extent in a way I shouldn't describe as lockstep, but is apparently similar enough for Pine to call scummy - insert your own word choice here'.

Y'know, that stuff.

Lol

You went really far out of your way to rephrase that in a sarcastic manner, didn't you?

Summary of case (in a non-awkwardly sarcastic phrasing): Boon and Thor have been very clearly working together all day. They've been trying to ignore one another, except to vaguely list the other as a suspect. They don't, however, pursue those suspicions. Thor hasn't voted for Boon at all, and Boon has only voted for Thor for very brief moments, and then unvotes when he goes offline. They often attack the same person, agree on a lot of things, and appear focused on the same objectives. They are independently scummy, but taken together, are clearly a Wolf team

Meant to post these together

I need to work unfortunately but I do have a fantastic case I have put together over the last few days on Thor/Boon to write up this evening. Then we can all sit around and have a nice discussion and finally lynch.

I look forward to that, we've been on hold for some time for you to offer thoughts and for Pine to find a computer.

I've posted my case. I'm not reporting it

again

. My case is based on my interpretation of events, so I'm not spending an hour or so rephrasing what I already said with nice quotes and diagrams, just for you to say NOPE and dismiss it. No one else is whining about this except you, and quite frankly, I don't give a flying rat's ass what you think

This is me not hammering Slandaar. A Mafia flip from him should clear me as Wolf

Unvote
Vote Thor

Look, at this point none of these vanity wagons are going through. A Slandaar lynch could happen, and that scares me, as I'm pretty sure he's Mafia. We ALL agree (more or less) on Thor. Let's not have an anti-Town lynch

I have made my case against Thor

repeatedly

and

thoroughly

. Thor continues to respond by ignoring it and focusing on trivial issues.

If we can't have Boon, we need to have Thor

[Pine]

@Pine - Wolves don't know who mafia is. It doesn't prove anything. Also, Slandaar says that he doubts Nero/Boon is the wolf team, yet he says Nero is a wolf and is voting me? Ha. Figures. Pine, you're doing pretty well at defending your partner here. You really are, but the gig is up. Bus your buddy.

TSO and NC bleed Town. That leaves three scum between the four of us. With all of the cooperation and mountains of evidence that you and Thor are buddies, that makes Slandaar Mafia. With you both going hard for him, and no one quick hammering for the win, that makes it really, really clear.

[Pine]

Yes, I see a lot of repetition that I am wolf - but I would note after nearly half of those posts I asked you bout your conclusion or commentary and was promptly stonewalled.
About the other half of them are not cases, but simple commenting that I am scum with no explanation offered.
So - no, those are all empty.

Actually, I steadfastedly avoided posts that merely restated my conclusion, and tried to only quote ones that explained my reasoning. Nice try.

except I'm not a wolf.

Cool story. Which of TSO and NC is, then?

Put your money where your mouth is then, Thor

Vote for Boon

Or is bussing in MYLO too risky?

Like, just as an example - this is one of the quotes you provide. It is blatantly not even the illusion of a case - it is hardly alone in this category.

All you did was iso yourself for 'Thor' and post every result to try and make it look like a case.
Whoop-dee-doo.

I went through my entire ISO, and only quoted about half the posts that mention you.

In this quote, I am highlighting the collusion between you and Boon. You stubbornly refuse to even

consider

the possibility of Boon as a Wolf. Town wouldn't dismiss the possibility, Mafia certainly wouldn't.

And seriously, how cowardly was it to choose one of the simplest and most straightforward posts to use as your example?

[Pine]

pine unvoting Slandaar is I'm pretty convinced that scum is Pine/Boon/Slandaar though

vote:no lynch

town needs a crosskill anyways so a no lynch doesn't hurt us.

If both Mafia and Wolves shoot a Townie, Wolves win. If Mafia gets shot but not Wolf, we go into 2:3 LYLO, where any Townie misvoting is a quicklynch loss, and even a wolf lynch puts us in 1:2 LYLO, same problem. Only if a Wolf is shot but not Mafia do we end up with decent odds for Town with 1:3:1

[Pine]

pine unvoting Slandaar is I'm pretty convinced that scum is Pine/Boon/Slandaar though

vote:no lynch

town needs a crosskill anyways so a no lynch doesn't hurt us.

If both Mafia and Wolves shoot a Townie, Wolves win.

If Mafia gets shot but not Wolf, we go into 2:3 LYLO

, where any Townie misvoting is a quicklynch loss, and even a wolf lynch puts us in 1:2 LYLO, same problem. Only if a Wolf is shot but not Mafia do we end up with decent odds for Town with 1:3:1

Incorrect. If only mafia is shot, that means mafia killed a townie. It's end gamed.

Fair point. I was also tossing around scenarios where Mafia and Wolf kills the same Townie, that's the situation that would lead to the result I described

[Pine]

pine unvoting Slandaar is I'm pretty convinced that scum is Pine/Boon/Slandaar though

vote:no lynch

town needs a crosskill anyways so a no lynch doesn't hurt us.

If both Mafia and Wolves shoot a Townie, Wolves win. If Mafia gets shot but not Wolf, we go into 2:3 LYLO, where any Townie misvoting is a quicklynch loss, and even a wolf lynch puts us in 1:2 LYLO, same problem. Only if a Wolf is shot but not Mafia do we end up with decent odds for Town with 1:3:1

meh. If we mislynch today its also an autoloss. Even if we hit wolf today we need a crosskill So either no lynching today lynching today is a risk. I don't necessarily see one risk as better than the other risk.

So what do you think of my "only one of thor/boon" is scum.

I don't know what you're drinking in regard to {Thor, Boon}=1 scum. Their collusion has been pretty bold and blatant

[Pine]

@NC: It was an angle I hadn't thoroughly investigated, your points were original and new, and coming from obvTown, I'm going to seriously consider them.

I considered them, and dismissed it. You're incorrect, but your perspective is clearly Town

PE: Your right that it isn't AUTOlose if we mislynch a Townie, but it would absolutely require a double crosskill. If either side kills a Townie, Town can't win. It's the next worse thing

[Pine]

I considered them, and dismissed it

Why? Where your work, bro?

What? I read your points, decided you were wrong, and returned to my original position. No work to show. It isn't long division.

[Pine]

So why did you decide that I was wrong?

My case on Thor+Boon is simply stronger

[Pine]

So why did you decide that I was wrong?

My case on Thor+Boon is simply stronger

To ask the follow up question for Nero.

Why?

Evidence of Thor + Boon > Evidence of Thor - Boon

Really, this is not a complicated equation. I read his case, decided mine was better

PE: I'm not pushing that idea. I'm pushing my reads. Besides, we've seen two Town investigators, a Town Vig, and a Town protective JOAT flip. On the other side, we've seen nothing defensive flip from any scum. I really don't see how it's a problem

PE2: Goddamnit, we've been doing this all day. TSO and Thor refuse to vote Boon. It isn't going to happen. If either of them does, I'm all over it

[Pine]

@Slandaar: The fact that NC isn't loll hammering you when he's got plenty of plausible cause pretty well proves he's not a wolf

[Pine]

Good game

[Pine]

@Pine - if Slandaar flips wolf, who would you say his partner is?

Haven't considered it seriously enough. Probably moot

[Pine]

Hey TSO.

Be pro-Town for once and save us.

You're all we need for a Boon lynch

[Pine]

Pine, you could be town - but Slandaar is the best lynch choice for me because I could conceive multiple teams he's on. I'm sorry if you're town, you really could be, and if I'm tossing the game I apologise - but I have been convinced into lynching town by scum in LyLo when I KNEW I was right and it's not happening here. Vote is staying. Slandaar gets dead now.

I don't disagree that he's scum, I disagree that he's Wolf. He's far more likely Mafia, and that's a Town loss

PE: Of course not. He'd just get himself shot if he did. His only hope is to avoid the lynch and not get shot. Otherwise he's just Kingmaker

[Pine]

He's not Wolf because Thor and Boon are

[Pine]

Sigh

Fine

TSO, NC, I will put together a comprehensive Slandaar!Mafia case, if you agree to give me a few hours to do it.

Please, PLEASE don't derp into a Town loss

[Pine]

Yeah, just realized that. Working on a short version now

[Pine]

Let's do PoE first. Thor isn't Mafia, he led the Flubber wagon at a time when bussing was unbelievable anti-wincon. Nero and TSO are both super Townie. That leaves Boon, Slandaar, and myself. It isn't me, though you're welcome to think so. Boon is pretty strongly aligned with Thor, but we'll keep him in the running for a comparison

Biggest evidence is the strength and urgency of Slandaar's scumhunting today. Wolves and Town both have other people to fall back on. Wolf can survive his buddy's death, Town can afford one loss, Mafia only has themselves. Slandaar has considered everyone, built cases and beaten cases, and has been acting in a logical, discerning fashion. Boon has been doing almost nothing but attacking me, soft-bussing Thor, and defending himself and Thor.

Boon and Thor were all over both Mafia lynches, and eagerly so. In contrast, Slandaar was a participant in the Reinoe sinking ship wagon, but stayed the hell away from the Flubber wagon, tunneling on superTown DGB

More coming, but those are the strongest and most readily-explained points

[Pine]

Ugh, my partner wants to go to dinner and I can't delay her more, she's been patient.

I'll elaborate more in a couple of hours if given the opportunity

This is why I wanted to have this discussion a week ago, TSO. Not last minute

I'll be available by phonepost to discuss any counterpoints

I also do NOT see a convincing wolf case on Slandaar. Will discuss that too

[Pine]

Well shit

Is Nero a wolf after all?

Good game Town

[Pine]

I'm not posting here (though I am reading) because I'd like to see an actual flip before I make plans. Unlike you, I don't actually know what Slandaar's going to flip

[Pine]

Shrug. Could be trolling. Need a flip

[Pine]

Wtf

No kill?

[Pine]

Well, Boon is Town

Only way no kill happens is if both shot him

Between Slandaar flipping Wolf and Boon being Town, I need to re-evaluate

Thor still can't be Mafia. Boon can't be Mafia. That leaves {TSO, Nero Cain}

Boon can't be Wolf, still don't think TSO can be due to behavior early D5 {Thor, Nero Cain}

Don't want to jump to a conclusion, because a mislynch here is a problem

On the other hand, a scumlynch guarantees us a fighting chance

[Pine]

The Town part? Yeah, that part

Nero, I don't see a way Boon can possibly be scum, unless one side elected not to shoot

[Pine]

Unless Thor is claiming BP Townie, that throws Boon back into the possible Wolf mix

[Pine]

I am NOT "busted wolf"

Jailkeeper is a protective role too, jackass. Clearly, Mafia shot at me, Wolf shot Boon, no kill

I think Thor is our Wolf, who jailkept his Mafia suspect, but ended up protecting me from the actual Mafia. Jailkeeper doesn't fit on Mafia side

[Pine]

Hmm

Jailing me and shooting Boon

doesn't

make sense, but you're off your rocker with the assertion that I'm "definitely" Wolf. There were two people protected last night, it's far more likely that both scum sides shot at me and Boon

That makes it TSO and NC, Mafia and Wolf respectively l think

[Pine]

No, NC, he's Town. He can't be Mafia, Jailkeeper+Roleblock+Rolecop is OP. He can't be Wolf, he wouldn't have jailkept me and shot elsewhere

You, on the other hand, are suddenly looking very Wolf

[Pine]

I'm trying to think if there's any way for Pine to be town here - I really do not think so.

Believe it

So how pissed were you when Flubber got flashwagoned?

[Pine]

I like this 180 you've pulled on me. Tell me more!

You played an awesome game. Suspecting you is 100% PoE. I can't see anyone else being Wolf except you and Boon

PE I'm really not

[Pine]

I mean, seriously. I probably absorbed at least one, maybe both of the shots from N5

[Pine]

Consider: Nearly everyone thought I was some kind of scum, so both sides thought I was the opposite. Shooting the announced bulletproof is just a waste of a shot, so the only way we get a no kill is for both sides to shoot me

[Pine]

That makes me Town, it makes Thor Town, and it makes Boon most likely To be Town of the remainder, but definitely not Mafia (because another robust PR would be OP for Mafia)

[Pine]

I don't understand how you'd eat both bullets. I'm p sure that a kill stop only does one protect.

Depends on the mod. A lot treat Jailkeep as a kind of forced commute, making the target untouchable and unable to touch

TSO, I'm not squirming. I'm deducing. I think it scares the piss out of you that we're in a 5-player game with two and a half confirmed Townies, so you want to make this quick, don't give Boon and Thor time to think it through

[Pine]

look Pine it's really cute that you've came up with a scenario that makes you not-scum but I still don't care

It's not "cute," it's important, and it changes things quite significantly

[Pine]

With me protected, the only way we get a no kill is if Boon and I were exclusively shot at. Given Boon was a claimed 2-shot BP, no one's going to shoot at him. That makes me Town, because both sides shot at me

[Pine]

Ironically, the fact that everyone thought I was scum confirmed me

[Pine]

I never tried to push Slandaar as Town, that pretty clearly shows that you weren't ever reading critically. I was consistently pushing Slandaar as Mafia

I was right about him being scum, wrong faction

[Pine]

How about explaining why you're so damn sure it was a Wolf that shot you, or how you know you were shot at all

[Pine]

Heads out of your ass

If there is one, single person we can clear of anything, it's that 2-shot bulletproof (or 1-shot, I'd exaggerate it to 2 if I had that role) cannot possibly be Mafia. That's too much Mafia power

[Pine]

Three PRs on one side, vs goon, 1-shot, and something else? The remaining wolf would have to be a bulletproof ninja godfather

[Pine]

Not to mention, Town power is kind of weak. Weak scum PRs make more sense.

[Pine]

Thor, those assertions are based on your opinions of relative PR strength, which I sharply disagree with. Neighbor is a mild benefit at best, and can often be a negative utility. A 1/shot weak investigator is barely better. On the other side, you have two of the most useful scum PRs. Yes, they're odd/even night, but they also support one another. To add a bulletproof member to that, then stack it against a neighbor and 1/shot tracker, they'd be clearly lopsided.

Town has two restricted investigators, a weak JOAT, and a limited Vig. In a 21-player game, that's pretty weak.

[Pine]

Boon's assertions that he absorbed a N1 kill are bizarre. From where? N5 are the only missing kills. There have been two kills every night, except for three kills on two nights that can be attributed to our 2-shot Vig

[Pine]

Just remembered that Jailkeeper needs to be added in to Town power. Are you X-shot, or full power? Full power JK would actually bring the balance up quite a bit, as it's a combo protective/blocking power

[Pine]

I'm "not doing much" because I feel it's reasonably obvious.

If your JK only protects once, then someone took a shot at Boon

[Pine]

You're right, it is. Why don't you self-vote?

[Pine]

So, Pine, are we abandoning the "scum shot me twice" theory?

Obviously. Clearly someone took a shot at Boon

I was assuming both sides shot at me because they each thought I was the opposite team

Really, your stubborn refusal to admit there's any alternative is coming off as frustrated scum

@Pine - who's the wolf, who's the mafia? I'm really starting to lean Nero-Wolf (shot me), and TSO-Mafia (shot you).

I was thinking the same, though I'm not ruling out you as Bulletproof Wolf

[Pine]

I think it's kind of adorable how much TSO has poured on the turbo against me. He needs for attention to be so far off of him that he gets overlooked

[Pine]

Yeah. You would, especially if he was (effectively) a goon and you had a power remaining. Especially when that power if bulletproof, in a late game where your team is at risk of being extinguished by high-odds night kill. Yeah, bus for Towncred with BP as insurance

Moot point, I'm feeling it more likely to be Nero than you. It's an issue for D7, if ever

[Pine]

I'm not scum bro

[Pine]

I'll spend tomorrow laying out why. Right now, I just came off a 36 hour shift and I want comfort food, some good lovin', and maybe some Skyrim

[Pine]

The Town motivation for that fakeclaim was reactions. It didn't go as well as I'd hoped, but maybe I need to go back and look at it again, without the preconception of Boon + Thor

[Pine]

Ugh, very sick, and kind of depressed about this game. I really don't see how this ends in a Town win. You're all convinced, and we can't afford the mislynch. The notion of spending a shit ton of my scant free time in a pointless effort to save this game is unappealing. Fuck you people. I will derive bitter pleasure rubbing your faces in how your own pigheadedness made this unwinnable

Mostly talking at Thor here. If you didn't have your head so far up your ass, convincing yourself it smells like roses there, we might have a shot

[Pine]

TSO is probably most likely to be Mafia. Could also see lynching NC. There's definitely 1 scum between them, probably 2. The only other possibility is Boonwolf

[Pine]

I'm coming down to a Boonwolf read. Maybe NC-Mafia?

Don't fucking know anymore

[Pine]

Hey TSO

Your reads are terrible

You are single-handedly losing this game for us (if Town, otherwise props)