Micro 441: Less Pressure

[++--]

VOTE: fjkldsjh for also having an unpronouncable name

[++--]

Isn't it too early to try to figure out who's trying to blend in and who isn't? However, the purpose of the vote is a more important question... hopefully Xayzeck gives a reasoning sooner or later, because it didn't really seem to make much sense for me.

[++--]

If you want something, why don't you ask me instead of talking about "Maybe he'll give a reason later"

I thought it was fairly obvious that my question implied that I wanted you to explain...

[++--]

*non-question

[++--]

If people other than xRECKONERx don't speak up, I'm going to start posting the Star Trek / King of the Hill crossover erotica I wrote.

This is by far the funniest "please be active" post I've seen so far.

That's all I have to say though.

[++--]

I am a bit bothered though that ++-- hasn't showed any kind of interest in progressing the game with his posts so far. So far he's only really interacted with TellTaleHeart, an IC. That obviously isn't going to do much to help gain reads.

Because there is nothing to interact with. No post about which I could say anything at all. Absolutely zero.

[++--]

I'm not sure if Pine doesn't get the joke or made a meta-joke...

[++--]

I think that if the thread's activity continues like this, we should just assume that a few hundred more posts happened and randomly assume that someone is scummy.

[++--]

(Disclaimer: no, I don't actually think that. Just in case someone didn't get my ridiculously bad joke.)

[++--]

I love how people keep non-RVS-voting without reasoning.

[++--]

Not really, more like random voting stage post position. Xayzeck voted Pine and was the third vote on the wagon in Post 14. What was Xayzeck's purpose here? Was it a pressure vote? If so, it kind of sucks since the wagon's built on pillars on sand and likely to crumble anyway, not giving much pressure. There's a few explanations, but I think one is slightly more likely than the others. The style of Xayzeck's post imitates the style of xRECKONERx's Post 12 and Huntress' Post 11: short vote posts without reason. He made the post to blend in.

From that first wagon I'm more inclined to think it's ++-- for

not

putting the third vote on Pine there. Xayzeck did what I might have done in his position. The rest of ++--'s posts show a continued avoidance of getting involved.

I'm a bit uneasy about Dry-fit - possible buddying there?

I didn't like Pine's 17. The last line felt a bit forced.

That's all I've got really. I was thinking either Dry-fit or Pine plus one of Jingle and Xayzeck but I have town reads on them so far so it could be there's some three-way distancing going on. However, with three out of five being scum I'm not putting too much weight on the town reads yet.

Strongest read so far is ++--.

Vote: ++--

Here we have the perfect "let's jump on an easy wagon" post.

VOTE: Huntress

[++--]

But you're not putting any effort into generating interactions. I think that's what town are obligated to do when things are just getting going. But you seem fine to let things play out more slowly.

There is a very simple reason for that. Once there is something that happened, I can interact with it, but I'm absolutely awful at generating stuff to be interacted on.

The guys got like five posts, in which he scummed onto a wagon while claiming no responsibility for his vote.

Oh, please. It's quite often the case that something as scummy as that actually comes from town. With good players, you have to look at the details instead of the "obvious scumtells". I'm not saying that it's a towntell, because it surely isn't, especially with a game with such a high proportion of scum in it, but it definitely isn't a scumtell either.

[++--]

About Jingle, I could surely see his play coming from scum motivation. I'd say that he is leaning towards scum. I'm not really sure what to think about Xay. His page one L-2 would be a bold move from scum, but at the same time, it would also be a strange move from town, and that was by far his most remarkable move in this game so far, so let's say that I don't really have a read on him.

[++--]

but abdicating responsibility for your vote while slipping quietly onto a flash wagon is just not Town-intentioned

What would you expect me to do as town in that situation if you are my top suspect?

"Top suspect?" How can you even have a "top suspect" in post 16? No one had made any posts of substance. All I'd posted was two jokes. On page one.

No, you were making an easy, scummy vote, while at the same time setting up an "I'm not responsible" excuse for when I flip Town. Now you're blustering and making excuses for past actions

That's a scum tactic. Page 43 of the handbook, I think

While you are right about that those posts are scummy, your reasoning is entirely wrong. The "I'm not responsible" thing doesn't mean anything at all, and could be a totally townie reaction, the bigger problem is the "let's follow the ICs... on page 1" thing. To me, it seems like that there is quite a high possibility that that post was a poorly constructed LAMIST post. However, the fact that he voted only in #41, AFTER the ICs went somewhere else, along with the #22 'keeping pressure' thing might as well give some townpoints to Dry-fit, but, as it also fits perfectly well into a possible townie-ish disguise, I'd still say that he might be slightly scummier than the average, but nowhere nearly as scummy as you're trying to make it appear.

[++--]

About Jingle, I could surely see his play coming from scum motivation. I'd say that he is leaning towards scum. I'm not really sure what to think about Xay. His page one L-2 would be a bold move from scum, but at the same time, it would also be a strange move from town, and that was by far his most remarkable move in this game so far, so let's say that I don't really have a read on him.

Why would it be a strange move from town? Page one wagons aren't that unusual.

I don't know how unusual they are, I don't have too much experience with this site's meta, it seems strange to me though.

[quote="In post 118, Huntress"

19 begins by marginalizing the ICs' reads, which I find suspect. Then she pushes Pine for what appears to be no reason. The idea that scum Pine is in any way more reluctant to vote when he pushes people than town pine is is alien to me.

You find questioning and probing to get reads "suspect" and "for no reason"?

I find accusations with no basis in reality suspect, yes. If you're trying to build a read out of toothpicks, you're not gonna get a real read. You're gonna get a stack of toothpicks. Tell me again who is more concerned with making it look like they're looking for alignments than actually figuring things out.
[/quote]

Accusations with no basis can, in fact, be pretty protown if used properly, if analysing the reacions to the accusations, etc. Also, without further reasoning, "more concerned with making it look like they're looking for alignments than actually figuring things out" is one of the most general remarks you could possibly say.

[++--]

VOTE: Jingle

I think the Huntress case sucks

I agree. Jingle's case on Huntress sucks so bis quite bad. In fact, bad enugh for my initial scumread on Huntress (based on the not-really-a-reasoning-disguised-as-a-reasoning appearance of Huntress's vote) to kinda disappear and go back to null-ish (where by null, I mean the average scumminess in this game, which is still quite high because of the proportions of scum, but not high enough for me to keep my vote on).

UNVOTE: Huntress

[++--]

I don't have one. She's done a couple of things to raise eyebrows, but I'm nowhere near sure on her. The "case" you keep referring to was in direct response to you asking me why I thought her behavior was worth noting, and was not intended to be convincing. If I wanted to fabricate a case, I'd fabricate a much better case.

It still looked like if you were trying to make a case, though. I'm not entirely sure whether you've actually tried to make a case and failed and came up with this explanation or this is the truth. In fact, it kinda seems like the first one.

[++--]

Aaaaaaaah! The two posts above me are awful. >:(

Actually, I have to agree with you... This is what happens if I post while multitasking between lots of different stuff - borderline incomprehensible sentences that end up making no sense, plus lots of typos. My bad, sorry.

[++--]

Part of me just wants to lynch Xay because he has a terrible attitude.

While his attitude is indeed terrible, it doesn't really seem like a scummy terrible attitude. To me, at least.

[++--]

#183 is horrible AND scummy. All other Xay posts seemed horrible in a not-particularly-scummy way. Not so sure what to think...

[++--]

Dry-fit is Town, properly so I think.

How so?

Personally, I have a strange feeling about Dry-fit. He doesn't seem to be very townie-ish, but lots of his thoughts are quite often very similar to mine (two examples: 1. he called my vote on Huntress to be "so bad that it must be town" which is kinda similar to what I say about Xayzeck's play, 2. his #198 about Jingle is basically exactly the same as what I think), which makes me think that he might be town after all? Or... IDK.

[++--]

Actually,

VOTE: Xayzeck

That looks a lot like faked ignorance to me. Like, there's no way that's legitimate.

Xay's entire play is basically "no way it's town, it's just so antitown" AND "no way it's mafia, it's too antitown" at the same time... Oh no

Bussing is stupid in this setup.

There is definitely bussing going on.

I'm inclined to think Xay is bussing Pine at the moment.

While that seems a viable option, could you elaborate on this please? (I mean, what makes you think this. Because I have a similar feeling, but so far, I couldn't really find evidence for it.)

[++--]

Hmm... both #223 and #224 are concerning. About Pine's post, I could only repeat what Huntress said in 225, so I'm not doing that. However, Huntress' 223 is particularly concerning because she played the 'forgot about the deadline' card after multiple players have slightly townread Jingle for basically saying the same (except he didn't "forget"), so I feel like this could have been a fake towntell maybe?

[++--]

My top two are Dry-Fit and Pine, and I don't really have a #3.

[++--]

Something feels wrong about this lynch. I can't exactly phrase what, but my problem is somewhere along the lines of "too good to be true" (wide consensus, terrible-ish play from Xay).

[++--]

Sorry for the slight inactivity from me, I was quite busy IRL. I'll catch up with the thread later today.

[++--]

VOTE: Huntress

New whim.

Sounds much better. Not my major scumread, but sounds better.

No. TTH, Xay is scum. VOTE HIM NOW.

Why are you SO sure? I get your points, but I don't get the certainity.

++-- is probably the scum off-wagon

You certainly have great skills at not presenting a case.

[++--]

Right, and your OMGUS is totally convincing. Have you considered logical arguments describing behavior? No? Maybe because you can't. Somebody hammer him, he's caught scum, and he's not even putting in effort at this point.

To be fair, noone (incl. the ICs) is putting in effort to the game. Plus, there are a few things that point towards badtown instead of obvscum, namely, 1. he only started giving poor arguments recently, which is indicative of a possible townie, as scum usually starts doing so quite early, 2. he is stubborn (see the constant "++-- is scum hurrdurrdurr" posts), which I personally consider as a towntell (most scum players alter their "reads" quite often). For scum points, sure enough, he has 1. the most recent shitty arguments 2. the meta, but even considering this, I would say that the likelihood of Xay is slightly under 50%, which is pretty low in this setup. Or, in other words, right now, my townread is being lynched and I don't like this. Dry-fit, on the other hand, does not show a (considerably) better play than Xay, however, his posts contain looooots of poorly constructed reasoning, multiple supposedly-town-tells about following the ICs. Pine has similar problems, but at least no "omg I follow the IC, just look at me, how townie I am" posts. Huntress didn't really post anything that could result in a good read (using my methods, at least), and Jingle is stubborn, but has poor reasoning, so these cancel out. So, basically, I'm becoming more and more certain that my reads in #229 are correct.

[++--]

Why would voting/not voting matter though?

[++--]

@goodmorning mostly null, maybe slightly more townie-ish than Huntress, but definitely not a lot more

[++--]

@ ++--:

If you think Xay is town, then who on the the wagon do you think is scum and why aren't you voting them?

I'm fairly certain about Dry-fit. I don't really remember why I didn't originally vote him (probably I just forgot to), but now I'll wait for some activity from his replacement.

ugh i don't know if i want to hammer xay now

Yoi should ask Jingle to repeat his scumcase eh that'll be handy

Yup, he's still scum.

That's not really a case though.

[++--]

Xayzeck is scum.

Do I actually need to restate my reasoning? It's fucking obvious. Town Xay pays more attention to the thread than that. He doesn't give a shit about the game and he's making no attempt to read anyone. He's goddamn scum. Now help me lynch him.

Meta is weak, effort is even weaker as an argument. Well done though, your posts continuously increase my confidence in Xay being TOWN.

I read and I want to lynch Pine. Xay would be for information or progress, but he's not screaming town either.

The Dry-fit tradition of not explaining anything is continued by the replacement.

[++--]

So, apparently, I didn't post in ages. Will be more active soon. That's all for now, sorry.

[++--]

I don't like #372 - why would she tell one of her supposed scumreads to switch votes in order to get someone lynched?

TTH, aren't #380 and #382 somewhat contradictory (i.e. activity-based argument followed by 'inactivity is not a reason')?

I don't like something about pisskop (and, also, formerly Dry-fit) vs Pine - I totally agree with #383 but those two players are my two major scumreads

The wonderful tale of "Jingle tells no arguments" continued. Ok.

#417 is a reason to reconsider stuff. IDK if Viomi (ex-Pine) is town because of the flip in reads after replacements or scum with different playstyle. I will do so whenever I'll be less tired.

That's all for now.

[++--]

lots of posts to look through, and little time so short replies now

wtf were viomi's posts #425-#435, like... what

@#450 - meta is bad as a sole reasoning

#458 makes sense but not exactly very convincing

@#473 idk who to though (in fact I'm becoming very uncertain)

[++--]

[avoiding prod] I'll catch up tomorrow. And this time seriously. And I'll invest actual energy to the game. Hopefully.

[++--]

Actually, I think I should replace out, because even though I have time now, in the near future, I will probably become inactive-ish again...

replace out