Micro 440: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

[Scripten]

VOTE: Witness Protection

We

might be the Town bloc.

Nice scumclaim.

[Scripten]

No hammers until all three sections have hammers, IIRC.

[Scripten]

Perp feels like Perptown, but I haven't played with them before, so my meta divings are probably not super indicative.

[Scripten]

Why is Post 17 a scumtell? I see the logical fallacy (better to assume you have one of the scumblocs) but town could made the same mistake just as easily as scum.

He didn't just mention it, he started pushing that he was part of it. It's pretty much a moot point that we have a town bloc, so why is it important to hedge toward being part of it unless serrapaladin or myself got lynched and flipped town?

Do I get to claim before you lynch me?

Sure, what're ya claiming?

Why did you meta dive them instead of commenting on someone who's actually from your group?

I tend to meta dive everyone I haven't played with before so I can get an idea of what their RVS play might mean. Perp stood out because their RVS scumplay looked significantly different from this game. I have been commenting on my own group. Haven't you noticed? Doesn't mean I'm not going to see what everyone else posts.

[Scripten]

Hey scripten, you around?

Yerp, I'm here.

[Scripten]

1

how would you know their RVS scumplay would be different before you meta'd them? I am confused.

2

No you haven't. Jumping on the "you said we might be the all-Town bloc so CLEARLY SCUM" bandwagon barely counts and neither of your other prior posts mentions your groupmates.

3

Have you played with both other members of your group before?

1 - I didn't know until after I went meta diving. Their posting was erratic and that can sometimes mean scum. Don't think it does atm.

2 - I was the first person to say anything about his post. BBmolla said he was scum, I guess?

3 - Nope. I know serrapaladin a bit from reputation, but WP is new to me.

Tell me something about my meta, scrip?

You're harder to read during RVS because you replace more often than not. About all I could tell is that you're quick to lay votes as town and you try to pull the game out of RVS ASAP. Can't tell you what scumtells I'd find in your RVS play.

[Scripten]

Then back to my original question: why PN first? Why not WP? Or even serra, if all you know about him is reputation?

Because Perp's meta actually told me something.

As for 2, stop moving the goalpoasts; 2 out of your 3 posts didn't make any mention of your groupmates. You hadn't been talking about them in 67% of your posts. Yes, I recognise that 3 posts isn't a massive sample size BUT STILL.

But still

what

exactly? You've had seven posts and have only mentioned your groupmates in two of them, so does that mean I'm 33% scum and you're 71% scum? This is silly and smells like distraction.

The only thing from that section that could have been reasonable was if I was needlessly bandwagoning, which also wasn't happening.

(and ftr i am defining the "you said we might be the all-Town bloc so CLEARLY SCUM" thing as a bandwagon because it clearly has no basis in fact, is simply popular opinion for whatever reason) (also it looks like the kind of thing Scum would say for an easy scumread BUT I'M NOT SAYING ANYTHING ABOUT THAT, NOPE)

Did you miss my 42? There's potential scum motivation for saying what WP did, though my vote didn't have much behind it

because it was on page 1

. The only way I could see your statement working was if you were accusing me of bandwagoning BBmolla because he mentioned WP being scum before I did.

[Scripten]

Yes, but why would you think that it necessarily would? Especially given that Witness mentioned a game with this exact setup that he was in before?

I must not be explaining very well here. I meta dove every player here that I haven't played with before to get an idea about RVS play from each of them, since D1 looks very important in this setup. Most RVS play is pretty generic, but Perp's stood out from their scum play, thus I mentioned it so that others would follow in my footsteps and check their meta.

I have observed a trend of you ignoring your group, which makes me think you want to fly under their radars.

You're using some pretty strong language for all of three posts. You're also kinda ignoring that I actually found potential scum motivation behind WP's post.

[Scripten]

And you didn't mention that you meta'd everyone when I asked you "why PN

instead of

someone from your group" because? Wouldn't the obvious answer to that be "I meta'd everyone I haven't played, but only PN's provided meaningful insights"?

I tend to meta dive everyone I haven't played with before so I can get an idea of what their RVS play might mean. Perp stood out because their RVS scumplay looked significantly different from this game.

Almost word-for-word.

If I watch a door for half an hour, and three people come out - all blonde women - then I would expect the next person out to, similarly, be a blonde woman. People are wired to notice patterns.

You're just restating what you said before. It's allegedly a trend for three posts on page 1 (technically, one is on page 2 as well but meh). Okay? The only reason I'm not dropping this for being noise is that you seem to find it important. From as objective a stance as I can muster, you're probably jumping the gun if your sample size for a posting trend is this small.

As for "potential Scum motivations" - Witness pointed out himself that it has previously come from Town (as would I have had I thought it would be necessary); therefore Town, having said it, must have had a reason to say it and so it follows that it is not, in point of fact, a particularly alignment-indicative thing for Witness to have said.

I think I mentioned this before, but it wasn't just that he mentioned the all-town bloc. It was that he put forth that he was in the all-town bloc. I definitely explained how this has potential scum motivation.

[Scripten]

Jesus, what fluff. I cut out a few redundant bits just because I can only repeat myself so many times.

This is his whole case. He hasn't varied from this theme since he jumped on it. He hasn't even explained why it's scummy. What would scum's plan have been? You tell me since it's your scum read.

42

He didn't just mention it, he started pushing that he was part of it. It's pretty much a moot point that we have a town bloc, so why is it important to hedge toward being part of it unless serrapaladin or myself got lynched and flipped town?

Reading comprehension. Thanks for cementing my scumread on you, tho.

PN seems to be playing according to what I remember of them. So it's pretty much verified that they are actually PN. I don't read them as anything but null ATM. What

exactly

gives you the Town read? Explain what you saw in their "meta".

PN's scumplay was more conservative and less erratic during RVS.

Then you should have this game sown up, if meta is all you need. I'm getting to the point I dismiss most "meta" reads out of hand, because "he's not playing the way he did in such and such a game" is such an easy place for scum to sit and just go "meta".

Not scumreading you based on meta, or is this you making an associative read between PN and myself before anyone has flipped?

Also never said meta was all that indicative. Why are you putting words in my mouth?

If you're going to use meta in your case, please do more that just say " he isn't playing the same as he did then." Show what is similar and what's not. Explain how that supports your read. Otherwise it's just an empty read.

Not scumreading you based on meta. I already mentioned what looked similar to PN's townplay and in this post I've said what looked different in their scumplay.

Do you expect them to play to their meta?

I haven't seen enough to tell yet. I commented on having looked at their meta and that this game looked like their town game. Nothing more.

I missed BB calling me scum. What's the scum motivation to mentioning the all Town group? Was I(scum) trying to trick my group somehow? We still have to lynch one of us. That was what Sthar8 & Jingle (I don't remember the name of their hydra ) got accused of in my last Triplicate game. But it doesn't even make sense, pushing mentioning the all Town group as a scum tell. I'm all for tin foil theories, but you just say it's scummy, but never try to explain why you think it's scum.

Already explained this. You're just repeating yourself here again.

Why meta dive

anyone

to get an idea of their RVS play? I'm starting to believe you. I bet you did meta dive players in this game. For nefarious reasons.

Yeah, I meta dove people for vague, evil reasons. Confbias harder.

All our words are here for posterity, prove it, don't just say it. Take my post and show how it means what you're saying it means.

I did. This just proves you aren't actually reading.

Sticks hard with an unexplained scum read. Town reads PN for "meta". He never explains what he got from the "meta", just says that's why he has reads. He looks like scum that's latched onto something they (scum) see as an easy push. I still need to ISO the other third of Wisdom, but from what I remember, he hasn't said much of anything. He did ask if Scripten was around once, then never followed up when he (Scripten )said he was.

ARE YOU EVEN READING THE FUCKING GAME?

Like, seriously. This is such bullshit. Are you trying to get me riled up so you can fake a scumread on me for that? Because holy shit this is infuriatingly impotent reading comp.

[Scripten]

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

Fine.

Then fucking lynch me then lynch WP. You seriously think that bull was town-motivated?

@GM: Prove me wrong instead of being condescending, maybe?

Completely out-of-game, your dismissive, short-sighted tunneling seriously makes me not want to play mafia. Seriously.

[Scripten]

Goodmorning:

You've been pushing me since page 1 to explain my vote. I have multiple times. It was an early game vote, but it was not RVS because I had reason to see WP's post as potentially scum-motivated. Do you really see (69) as a town reaction to being voted this early? It's pedantic, it ignores half of my ISO WHILE QUOTING IT, and, like your posts, it puts more weight on my vote than

I

did.

It's really frustrating because I think you're town, but 76 feels super dismissive of my play. (Apologies for losing my cool there, though. Was grumpy last night, but that was unwarranted in hindsight.) I feel like I'm bashing my head against a wall. I get the assertion that mentioning the all-town group came from town in another game and led to a mislynch. Doesn't mean there's no potential scum motivation, (Note that I have been pushing potential scum motivation while you and WP are pushing that I'm saying it's only scum-motivated - hence more frustration) and I'm not seeing scum in serrapaladin. Why would I change my vote unless I thought serra was scummier than WP?

[Scripten]

I'm not really putting any weight on your vote but on the reasoning for it - and "potential Scum motivation" is a thing you keep saying but it doesn't make the action anything other than Null.

I never said you should change your vote.

Everyone does things that can be considered as being motivated from a town perspective as well as a scum perspective, sure. But that doesn't make actions with scum potential null. It makes them suspicious. You poke and prod at that player so that you can get a read on them when they do something that could potentially reveal them as scum.

That's why I voted WP. That's why I presented my vote as more than RVS. That's why I responded the way I did to his reaction to me keeping my vote on him even after his initial joking response to it. Notice how he's flippant about it at first, but when I show that my vote was slightly more than RVS, he pretty much exploded? Am I wrong in seeing that reaction as scummy?

@Serrapaladin: Why are you relying on GM to tell you what to think? I get that you have a town read on her (I do, too, atm) but you seem to be deferring to her because of it.

-P-Edit-

WP:

As for this intent, what is it?

What

is it scum would get from tricking (?) his group into thinking it was the all Town group? Tricking both you and Serrapalidan into sacrificing yourselves because I was so generous as to call us all Town (before either of you had spoken) group?

This is a misrep.

I never said you were trying to trick us into sacrificing ourselves. That's irrational. You're only pushing that because you saw it in an earlier Triplicate game.

I said that the scum motivation from asserting that you are part of the all-town group would be insurance for after a lynch. Say serrapaladin or myself flipped town. "Oh, well, that must mean that we're the all-town group. Hahaha, I was right. What a funny coincidence."

It's not strong, but it WAS ON PAGE 1. And since then, serrapaladin has not done anything that indicates that he is more likely to be scum than you. And you've been reacting more and more like scum the longer my vote is on you.

[Scripten]

This is way worse than anything I posted, because this reasoning assumes that everyone in this game is a complete and utter idiot.

Obviously I was working from a bit of hyperbole, but still... you don't often see scum placing little things into their posts that are meant to slightly push the town to keep suspicion off of them?

You keep misrepping the whole thing. You're the one blowing it up, then yelling that I' m doing it.

From my PoV, your reaction to my vote was much more extreme than the seriousness of the vote warranted. Yes, I defended my vote to GM, but that doesn't make it any stronger in my mind than it was to begin with. It was the way you reacted that made my scumread stronger.

So you say that saying that was some long term plan thing. You think something said in RVS is actually going to have that large an effect, and that scum would rely on one statement for their entire play? You call me scum because I said "all Town", but you call me scummy because I defend myself from something I see as off the wall. That makes it a lot harder to Town read you. I just don't see how anyone taking something so null, and so steadfastly calling it scummy.

The action, your play at the time, was scummy to me. It is still possible that you are not scum, but I haven't seen any evidence that serrapaladin is yet, so my vote stayed on you.

It seems like you're pushing that I called you 100% certain scum because of something relatively small, when what I'm actually saying is that I think you are scum at the moment because your actions are scummier than serra's. (The small thing I picked out was what keyed me in, then your reaction to my vote on you made the read stronger.) I'm trying my best not to confbias, but your reaction, and especially your return vote, seems excessive and slightly panicky.

You admit it's on page 1, but then turn around and defend it by using Serrapalidan's play as

something

. If you weren't latched onto a phrase, maybe we could get more from him. His play's been so null. It isn't until recently (post wise) he's said anything of note.

This is a good point, actually.

I'm not, nor did I suggest I would defer to her opinion. I have an opinion on it and want to check if that lines up with hers. Asking this way around is much more likely to give useful results than me arguing my opinion and then asking if people agree.

The way your phrased your question to her makes it a lot easier for you to just go "yeah that" and not give us any of your own thoughts. There's nothing inherently wrong with it, other than that I would like to see more from you than GM right now, since she's been fairly active.

Zeb could be town, actually. I think PN is more likely to be the scum in that group.

This is... strange timing, considering I just made a light reference to you deferring to GM's scumhunting. Can you explain your townread of Zebulin?

Do you realize that Zeb is scum reading PN too?

How would this be a problem if serra thinks Zeb is town?

[Scripten]

Then why not wait for it to play out and then call me out for sheeping gm's opinion?

Combination of impatience and overlooking the idea. Can't deny I should have done so.

It seems he actually thought about whether you v WP is TvT or TvM, in the context of his model.

Seems like an easy enough thing to fake as scum, but eh. Do you have interactive experience with Zeb?

[Scripten]

scrifton

Dude.

[Scripten]

I agree that we should be scumhunting throughout the game. I'm noticing that there's an amount of consensus on that fact. Serra's FoS-vote equivalence suggestion is a good one.

I would propose we open the question of whom to lynch in each group to all of us, deciding by majority in each case if possible, runoff if not.

As is, we have the following issues with our voting system:

- members of the all-town group can't actually vote for scum today

- while randomly lynching in a 3p LyLo has a 1/3 town EV, in reality only takes 1 of the 2 town to vote wrongly for scum to win, giving a real EV somewhere closer to 1/4

- scum interactions will be much harder to gauge, since some people will not necessarily focus on all groups. leading on from that, mislynches in a group could easily be used D2 by out-of-group scum to push a mislynch of someone in the group.

I don't think us talking about all groups really compensates for the concrete opinions that should underpin voting.

Do you think we should all just list the other players in order of scumminess, separated by groups? I feel like this is what you're suggesting, but I'm not sure.

P-Edit: Oh, I was prodded. Didn't realize my activity was so bad. And WP is being replaced. Interesting. Going to unvote until I can get a read on the replacement.

UNVOTE: Witness Protection

[Scripten]

Several posts on meta that i'm not quoting due to length.
I don't particularly understand why he didn't mention WP's meta or, if meta of RVS doesn't tell him anything, why he bothers with RVS meta.

It's just a start-of-game habit. It helps me form early game reads.

Well this is firstly a bit on an ATE (the whole "lynch me i don't care) but the thing i'm more concerned with is why he only says this about WP. As i brought up in my last post, lucky basically does the same thing. Yet scripten has ignored lucky completely.

Huh? What did they both do?

I was rather pissed off in general because WP's vote on me was basically nothing but OMGUS and people were responding to it like he had destroyed this big case of mine, when I had voted him for something mildly scummy, then kept my vote on him because his reaction to my vote was scummy. It's as if nobody was actually reading my posts.

Why did you unvote someone you have a cement scumread on?

Because my scumread could have been wrong. I wanted to get a feel for BC's play this game before I laid my vote down and made a hammer possible.

[Scripten]

1.) So is it usually helpful and this game is just an outlier?
2.) They both said about themselves being in a townblock.
3.) How are you reading the third member of your block?

1) I can take or leave it. It usually only takes a minute or so. I just tab up what I can find of a player's games and cross reference behaviors.
2) I didn't see this. Can you link to that post?
3) Serra is null-town. He is quiet and sort of avoiding the limelight, but the way in which he's acted feels more like town than scum.

[Scripten]

I was liking Hopkirk til 172, now I think maybe not so Town?

As for me not really being around: I'm taking six 3000-level classes. My professors are mostly ridiculous.

Can you go into a bit of detail about what you don't like about 172? I have my own issues with the post, but I'm surprised it would make you do a 180.

Also, totally understand. Last semester of my senior year right now. All upper division classes.

Here's my lynch preferences in each group at the moment:

Hopkirk > lucky > gm

BC > scrip > serra

PN > zeb = BB

Good idea.

Vote order

Hopkirk > lucky2u > goodmorning

Beastcharizard > serrapaladin > Scripten

Zebulin > Perpetual Nonsense > BBmolla

[Scripten]

Look Serra is scum. I called her out and then she gets a scum read on me. They aren't actually saying anything until after I called them out as well. They were trying to skate by content on me and scripten thinking the other is scum and then when I showed that wasn't mh train of thought she had to do something.

I didn't feel any break in inertia here. Pretty convinced your slot is scum. What's scummy about 94? What do you think about Zebulin?

VOTE: Beastcharizard

[Scripten]

Current Votes

(As best I can gather)

BBmolla: Hopkirk, beastcharizard, Zebulin
Hopkirk: Lucky2u, Scripten, Zebulin
Perpetual Nonsense: Hopkirk, serrapaladin, Zebulin (?)
Lucky2u: Hopkirk, Scripten, Perpetual Nonsense
Zebulin: Hopkirk, beastcharizard, Perpetual Nonsense
serrapaladin: Hopkirk, beastcharizard, Perpetual Nonsense
Goodmorning: ???
beastcharizard: Lucky2u, serrapaladin, (None)
Scripten: Hopkirk, beastcharizard, Zebulin

Unofficial Votecount

Hopkirk: 6
Zebulin: 4
beastcharizard: 4
Perpetual Nonsense: 3
Lucky2u: 2
Scripten: 2
serrapaladin: 2
BBmolla: 0
Goodmorning: 0

Some Notes

- GM and PN have the least transparent picks. I think I got PN's right, but I'm not sure. GM hasn't posted hers yet. (Probably not alignment-indicative, really)
- GM and molla are both universally townread or, at least, not scumread.
- Hopkirk is almost universally scumread (Though I did not count GM's vote against him, I noted that she said he "wasn't so town")
- Related?: BC is the only one other than Hopkirk not voting for Hopkirk, but BC claims that he thinks courage is the townbloc (May or may not be true. Could be scum quasi-buddying?)

[Scripten]

Power seems to be the group with the most hangups, though courage has the closest leading wagons. Considering we have less than a day left for deliberations, are we coming close to hammering?

Can someone who is scumreading Lucky2u give me an idea of why?

[Scripten]

Woot. Good play, town.

I feel pretty good for calling the scumteam in 261.