Micro 440: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #22 (isolation #0) » Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:43 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Did you just hammer page 1?
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Post Post #27 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:11 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 23, Scripten wrote:No hammers until all three sections have hammers, IIRC.


Alright, thanks for telling me.

Why is Post 17 a scumtell? I see the logical fallacy (better to assume you have one of the scumblocs) but town could made the same mistake just as easily as scum.
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Post Post #35 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:46 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 33, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:And right now, this hat is a pirate hat.


Why isn't it a top hat?

(What's the crazy tinfoil theory?)
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Post Post #41 (isolation #3) » Tue Jan 27, 2015 3:54 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 36, BBmolla wrote:VOTE: zubullu


Zubullu? That hurts, man.

Why the unannounced vote on me?
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Post Post #62 (isolation #4) » Tue Jan 27, 2015 2:08 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 56, goodmorning wrote:Trying too hard to be casual.


Isn't that what RVS is supposed to be, though? If scum feel relaxed instead of pressured they are much more likely to say something stupid early game imo. That allows you to scumhunt effectively and make the right call come in-game sundown. I get that appearing town is what scum would want to do, but it's also what town wants to do. I've been mislynched in lylo my last 2 games, and this is basically 3 lylos.

VOTE: Perpetual Nonsense BBMolla's answer to my question seems town (also just seems town in general), and I don't see at all how Scripten or Hopkirk are very scummy at this stage in the game.
Also, he rejects top hats. That is a grave disappointment.


Going to meta-dive Perp and BBMolla.
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Post Post #67 (isolation #5) » Tue Jan 27, 2015 6:11 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 63, goodmorning wrote:
In post 62, Zebulin wrote:
In post 56, goodmorning wrote:Trying too hard to be casual.

Isn't that what RVS is supposed to be, though? If scum feel relaxed instead of pressured they are much more likely to say something stupid early game imo. That allows you to scumhunt effectively and make the right call come in-game sundown. I get that appearing town is what scum would want to do, but it's also what town wants to do. I've been mislynched in lylo my last 2 games, and this is basically 3 lylos.

The first three words of my post are the most important ones. Your response doesn't really make sense to me in context.


Um, your signature literally says "EFFORT IS NOT INDICATIVE OF ALIGNMENT".


Apparently BBMolla doesn't post more than 2 lines per post as both town and scum. Ever. Perpetual Nonsense is playing very much like his town meta, though, with all the metaphors. UNVOTE: Perpetual Nonsense
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Post Post #72 (isolation #6) » Wed Jan 28, 2015 2:35 pm

Post by Zebulin »

I think that Blue's scum isn't serrapaladin, mainly because there's not a very good chance in my mind of Scripten vs Witness to be TvT. Witness is probably the scum unless he can refute Scripten's points.

Perpetual Nonsense, BBMolla: What's your take on the arguments on this page?
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Post Post #74 (isolation #7) » Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:27 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Why do you say that?
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Post Post #78 (isolation #8) » Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:15 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 75, serrapaladin wrote:UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

@zeb: how do you tell TvT and TvM apart?

Statistically, we may want to consider lynching via an intergroup pseudo-vote system, using FoSes or something.


I think TvT arguments tend to be argued over semantics, with logical and precise reasoning on both sides over a point that was debatable in the first place (difference in play philosophy or NK analysis). TvM arguments tend to be all-out walls of text about hard evidence, and scum sometimes (hopefully) slips up in their fake argument. It's not a guaranteed system, but it's worked for all my games so far. The Witness vs Scripten argument is very wally and the posts contradict each other, so SOMEONE is lying.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #9) » Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:27 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 91, Witness Protection wrote:
In post 89, serrapaladin wrote:Zeb could be town, actually. I think PN is more likely to be the scum in that group.

We agree on Zeb, but what's scummy about PN? They play to their name, or at least they did in Bulba's game. I think they should be left alone just for their comedic act! :lol: But seriously, what have they done that's scummy?

Do you realize that Zeb is scum reading PN too?

After going over his ISO, I'd like to ask Zeb to explain his vote on PN. He said it was because BB answered better. What exactly did BB say? So far he's casted a couple of votes, and called a few slots Town, and a few scum. I'm asking because I don't see what gives you the Town read on BB.


Mostly it's because of my ISO read on BBMolla. Normally I'm suspicious of a guy who has so few words per post, but he posts very little in both his town and scum games. The difference I saw is that Town-BBMolla asks a lot of questions and is active scumhunting even on page 1, and Scum-BBMolla tends to say random fluff unrelated to the game and try to stay out of the limelight. BBMolla has been active scumhunting this game and hasn't made a single out-of-game post so far, so I feel he's town.
The only thing I don't like from him was the "Zubullu" comment. That hurt.


I'm scum reading Perpetual Nonsense mainly because I think BBMolla is town and that makes a 67% chance Perpetual Nonsense is scum.

On an unrelated note, Power needs to talk more. Hopkirk and Lucky2u are basically mute.

In post 106, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:Gaiden also wants blood.
VOTE: Zeb

HAMMAH-ish


Why did you vote me?
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Post Post #113 (isolation #10) » Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:09 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 111, Lucky2u wrote:
In post 110, Zebulin wrote:Scum-BBMolla tends to say random fluff unrelated to the game and try to stay out of the limelight.


fluff and avoiding attention is a pretty rookie scum tell of a player who's town meta doesn't include it. So you are essentially claiming that BB is obvscum when he is scum correct?


Basically, yeah. The main thing I got from the meta dive of BBMolla and Perpetual Nonsense is that BBMolla doesn't "play to his town meta" and Perpetual Nonsense does.
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Post Post #114 (isolation #11) » Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:11 pm

Post by Zebulin »

^ as scum
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Post Post #118 (isolation #12) » Fri Jan 30, 2015 4:15 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 117, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 110, Zebulin wrote:
In post 91, Witness Protection wrote:
In post 89, serrapaladin wrote:Zeb could be town, actually. I think PN is more likely to be the scum in that group.

We agree on Zeb, but what's scummy about PN? They play to their name, or at least they did in Bulba's game. I think they should be left alone just for their comedic act! :lol: But seriously, what have they done that's scummy?

Do you realize that Zeb is scum reading PN too?

After going over his ISO, I'd like to ask Zeb to explain his vote on PN. He said it was because BB answered better. What exactly did BB say? So far he's casted a couple of votes, and called a few slots Town, and a few scum. I'm asking because I don't see what gives you the Town read on BB.


Mostly it's because of my ISO read on BBMolla. Normally I'm suspicious of a guy who has so few words per post, but he posts very little in both his town and scum games. The difference I saw is that Town-BBMolla asks a lot of questions and is active scumhunting even on page 1, and Scum-BBMolla tends to say random fluff unrelated to the game and try to stay out of the limelight. BBMolla has been active scumhunting this game and hasn't made a single out-of-game post so far, so I feel he's town.
The only thing I don't like from him was the "Zubullu" comment. That hurt.


I'm scum reading Perpetual Nonsense mainly because I think BBMolla is town and that makes a 67% chance Perpetual Nonsense is scum.

On an unrelated note, Power needs to talk more. Hopkirk and Lucky2u are basically mute.

In post 106, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:Gaiden also wants blood.
VOTE: Zeb

HAMMAH-ish


Why did you vote me?

Mah Maths has gotten rusty. How did you arrive at that number?


Assuming BBMolla is town, and knowing I'm town, then there is a 2/3rds chance you are scum (1/3rd chance we're the townbloc). The chance of you being scum in my head is actually a lot lower, because there's a 40something% chance we're the townbloc (Pretty sure the townbloc isn't Wisdom) and BBMolla isn't confirmed town. The numbers aren't 100% accurate, they're mostly to show what I'm thinking in terms of how scummy everyone is.

Power: Talk more.
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Post Post #134 (isolation #13) » Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:46 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 121, Lucky2u wrote:
In post 118, Zebulin wrote:Assuming BBMolla is town, and knowing I'm town, then there is a 2/3rds chance you are scum (1/3rd chance we're the townbloc). The chance of you being scum in my head is actually a lot lower, because there's a 40something% chance we're the townbloc (Pretty sure the townbloc isn't Wisdom) and BBMolla isn't confirmed town. The numbers aren't 100% accurate, they're mostly to show what I'm thinking in terms of how scummy everyone is.


This is a whole lot of non committal nonsense.


BBmolla asked me to explain my reasoning, so I explained my reasoning. My reasoning is terrible, but that's what you get on page 5. I didn't edit anything in that post to show my true train of thought, so if it seems rambling I apologize. I'm not 100% sure on anything because I CAN'T be 100% sure; there's always a chance I'm wrong.
In post 133, serrapaladin wrote:I would propose we open the question of whom to lynch in each group to all of us, deciding by majority in each case if possible, runoff if not.

As is, we have the following issues with our voting system:

- members of the all-town group can't actually vote for scum today

- while randomly lynching in a 3p LyLo has a 1/3 town EV, in reality only takes 1 of the 2 town to vote wrongly for scum to win, giving a real EV somewhere closer to 1/4

- scum interactions will be much harder to gauge, since some people will not necessarily focus on all groups. leading on from that, mislynches in a group could easily be used D2 by out-of-group scum to push a mislynch of someone in the group.

I don't think us talking about all groups really compensates for the concrete opinions that should underpin voting.


I ran the numbers on this idea, and assuming random voting it has a much higher chance of getting scum lynched. I'm in favor of it.
In post 132, Lucky2u wrote:
In post 131, serrapaladin wrote:because I wasn't wallposting.


for what it's worth, I like it when people don't wall post.


Why don't you like wall posts?

Also, I think someone had a question directed at me. What was it?
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Post Post #137 (isolation #14) » Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:38 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Before I forget: There are things I want to post if I get lynched before I die (which is probably going to happen), but saying them now helps scum way more than town. When it comes time to hammer all 3 groups, give me a chance to post before you do so. Thank you!

Hopkirk, you need to post way more. You seem to be posting
just
enough to not get prodded.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #15) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:06 am

Post by Zebulin »

The problem for me is that I'm
not
scumreading you or BBMolla, and it's very frustrating. Either we're the townbloc, which is unlikely and shouldn't be discussed at this point in the game, or one of you two is a master scumplayer, which is terrible for town in general and means I'll probably die D1 (I'm not exactly the towniest-looking player in any of my games, and I was being hammered until 5 minutes ago). I'm trying to get Courage to post more, since it seems only Wisdom is posting real walls at all, but when scum is in a townread and a leaning-townread and I'm widely being scumread I'm not sure what I can say to not die.

At this point I'd say Hopkirk, Witness and Perpetual are the scum, but Witness is my only real scumread. Hopkirk is leaning-scum and Perpetual is leaning-town, but not as town as BBMolla. ( I'm starting to suspect BBMolla simply because my main townreads my last 2 games have been scum in lylo. :/ )

P-Edit: Keep in mind these are page 5 reads. There's not going to be that much behind them compared to page 20+ reads.
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Post Post #157 (isolation #16) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:11 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 154, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:VOTE: Zebulin
That was amusing. How can you not laugh at flailing?


IDONTWANNADIE

*cries in the corner as Perpetual Nonsense ties the noose*
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Post Post #163 (isolation #17) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:13 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 159, BBmolla wrote:Like I'm pretty content to lynch Zebulin and WP and go from there, so I don't have much more to say


Say more stuff! Figure out who you want to lynch in Power, for one thing. Not saying stuff is bad.

Hello beastcharizard!
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Post Post #164 (isolation #18) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:14 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 150, Lucky2u wrote:
In post 148, Zebulin wrote:The problem for me is that I'm
not
scumreading you or BBMolla, and it's very frustrating. Either we're the townbloc, which is unlikely and shouldn't be discussed at this point in the game, or one of you two is a master scumplayer,
which is terrible for town in general and means I'll probably die D1
(I'm not exactly the towniest-looking player in any of my games, and I was being hammered until 5 minutes ago). I'm trying to get Courage to post more, since it seems only Wisdom is posting real walls at all, but when scum is in a townread and a leaning-townread and I'm widely being scumread I'm not sure what I can say to not die.

At this point I'd say Hopkirk, Witness and Perpetual are the scum, but Witness is my only real scumread. Hopkirk is leaning-scum and Perpetual is leaning-town, but not as town as BBMolla. ( I'm starting to suspect BBMolla simply because my main townreads my last 2 games have been scum in lylo. :/ )

P-Edit: Keep in mind these are page 5 reads. There's not going to be that much behind them compared to page 20+ reads.


I was about ready to cement a Zebulin scum read, but then I clicked his profile and saw two of the four games in his history are newbie games. With so little experiance, I am slightly more willing to change my mind that the above post may not be obvious scum fence sitting and might actually be indecisive town. The bolded section irks me greatly. I hate the semi-threat it implies.


What semi-threat? I wan't implying anything.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #19) » Mon Feb 02, 2015 2:00 pm

Post by Zebulin »

I just realized:

The "universal townread" players; goodmorning, serrapaladin, and BBMolla.

The players who aren't posting much lately; goodmorning, serrapaladin, and BBmolla.

I'm going to go check to see if any of the 3 are posting in other games but not this one.
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Post Post #184 (isolation #20) » Mon Feb 02, 2015 2:26 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Nope. They're all posting the same amount in other games as they are in this one.

P-Edit: "No one has their vote on them" is what I meant.
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Post Post #190 (isolation #21) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:03 am

Post by Zebulin »

Are we using Serra's pseudovote system? Pseudovotes on Hopkirk and beastcharziard then. I have the exact same reads as Serra, but I've stated it before (post 148).

VOTE: Perpetual Nonsense Just realized I never actually voted.

goodmorning: Don't worry about it then. RL trumps online mafia in my mind.
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Post Post #191 (isolation #22) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:04 am

Post by Zebulin »

P-Edit: Perpetual Nonsense: Why would you ONLY consider me town if I voted BBMolla instead of you?
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Post Post #197 (isolation #23) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:36 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 192, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:There is no reason to make further considerations if you aren't going to vote Molla. A Molla lynch then becomes impossible. That leaves only two choices. You, and Me. Please don't twist my words.
A vote on Molla makes no sense and has no point given you townreading him, and you thinking We are more scummy than Molla.


Nonononono. Just because I'm townreading Molla doesn't eliminate the chance that Molla's scum, and I'm giving it a 60/40 chance that you're scum compared to BBMolla. Keep in mind I said you're leaning town. I'll vote Molla if he looks scummier than you or keeps lurking, because it's frustrating me.

In post 193, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 148, Zebulin wrote:The problem for me is that I'm
not
scumreading you or BBMolla, and it's very frustrating. Either we're the townbloc, which is unlikely and shouldn't be discussed at this point in the game, or one of you two is a master scumplayer, which is terrible for town in general and means I'll probably die D1 (I'm not exactly the towniest-looking player in any of my games, and I was being hammered until 5 minutes ago). I'm trying to get Courage to post more, since it seems only Wisdom is posting real walls at all, but when scum is in a townread and a leaning-townread and I'm widely being scumread I'm not sure what I can say to not die.

At this point I'd say Hopkirk, Witness and Perpetual are the scum, but Witness is my only real scumread. Hopkirk is leaning-scum and Perpetual is leaning-town, but not as town as BBMolla. ( I'm starting to suspect BBMolla simply because my main townreads my last 2 games have been scum in lylo. :/ )

P-Edit: Keep in mind these are page 5 reads. There's not going to be that much behind them compared to page 20+ reads.


Also, explain why you referred to Us and Molla (if scum) as "master scumplayers." That can't be farther from the truth.

Then, why are you defending your play as not scummy because "you didnt look townie in your past games."

And remind Us what Molla has done lately/recently that suggests he is really town?

Also, what do you have to comment about regarding the gamestate?


I didn't refer to you two as "master scumplayers", I referred to whoever the Courage scum is a "master scumplayer/s". THese posts are assuming I'm just not counting BBMolla, but he still has a good chance of being scum. He's just not posting so I can't intercat with him and make a more educated guess as to his alignment.

I was not intentionally defending my play using "I didn't look townie in my past games". I apologize if it looked that way.

Absolutely nothing. BBMolla: Talk more.

I'm not optimistic about the gamestate. I have a bad feeling the one or both of the scum are lurking their was to victory, I'm worried I"ll get lynched Day 1 (not the most pleasant Mafia experience), and I have too many townreads, but other than that it's going great!

In post 194, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 181, Zebulin wrote:I just realized:

The "universal townread" players; goodmorning, serrapaladin, and BBMolla.

The players who aren't posting much lately; goodmorning, serrapaladin, and BBmolla.

I'm going to go check to see if any of the 3 are posting in other games but not this one.


not universal. You're relying on Molla "not fluffing early like past games, and also asking lots of questions" as a reason for townreading him.

Right now, I see you're prodding people to talk more and checking on their activity. However, if you're town, your survival means the most right now to you, more than figuring our the other blocks seeing as you're the one most likely to die right now, being the only one player with a majority of two votes.

From my POV, your only chance is to vote me and make a push for me if you don't want to die, as you don't believe Molla is scum (far from that). But, that pushing isn't happening, and you're simply "townreading" both Molla and me, and not really appearing to try to pressure either of us. That is worrying.

So, now you finally voted me when I prodded you to vote Molla or die (LOL), but still haven't asked any constructive questions to me. Although, I will admit the one about asking why I won't consider changing my mind unless you vote Molla was pretty clear to me (but not you, I understand it was not phrased well) to mean that it's a waste of my time to even think about voting Molla if you have him as strong-town and would only vote me if forced to vote.


The problem with this post is that I don't have Molla as strongtown, not anymore. He stopped contributing to the discussion a while back and is basically prod-dodging, and that's dropped him to a null read.



Need to go to school now, will address other stuff later.
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Post Post #212 (isolation #24) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:30 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 207, BBmolla wrote:I think serra is over reacting

*shrug*

Why?
In post 208, BBmolla wrote:Zeb voting PN is wierd as fuck though.

Why?
In post 209, BBmolla wrote:In a not what I expected from scum way

Why?
In post 210, BBmolla wrote:Oh nvm I get it

Get what?
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Post Post #213 (isolation #25) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:51 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Random strategy I just thought of: If we hit 1 scum D1 and mislynch D2 in a group where town died D2, then policy lynching the 3rd member will give Town and 67% chance of victory. I'd policy lynch if I lived that long, though I'll probably be lynched or nightkilled
"In your dreams Zeb" says everyone
before then.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #26) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:02 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 199, Lucky2u wrote:
In post 197, Zebulin wrote:Nonononono. Just because I'm townreading Molla doesn't eliminate the chance that Molla's scum, and I'm giving it a 60/40 chance that you're scum compared to BBMolla. Keep in mind I said you're leaning town. I'll vote Molla if he looks scummier than you or keeps lurking, because it's frustrating me.


This backpedaling makes me want to change my list...

This post. This post made me go from strong-town to null.
In post 159, BBmolla wrote:Like I'm pretty content to lynch Zebulin and WP and go from there, so I don't have much more to say

Easily scum not having to contribute to scumhunting. Town doesn't have a motivation to not say anything.

PN: It's better for me to be lynched D1 than to get a townie lynched D1 and be lynched D2. That's why I'm more focused on figuring out which of you or BBMolla is scum than trying to save my own life.
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Post Post #216 (isolation #27) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 6:31 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Why do you think serra is overreacting?
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Post Post #219 (isolation #28) » Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:07 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 218, goodmorning wrote:
In post 213, Zebulin wrote:Random strategy I just thought of: If we hit 1 scum D1 and mislynch D2 in a group where town died D2, then policy lynching the 3rd member will give Town and 67% chance of victory. I'd policy lynch if I lived that long, though I'll probably be lynched or nightkilled
"In your dreams Zeb" says everyone
before then.

That wouldn't happen, because Scum would have to kill a confTown from the group where Scum was hit.


Let's say that we hit one scum Day 1, in group A.

A: Town, Town
B: Town, Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum

Scum obviously kills from Group A, the confirmed town group.

A: Town
B: Town, Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum

Let's say we mislynch in B.

A: Town
B: Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum

Group A dies again.

B: Town/Scum
C: Town, Town/Scum

At this point, there's a 50% chance of the player in B to be scum, but lynching from group C only gives us a 25% chance of catching scum (50% chance you hit the scum member, 50% chance there's actually a scum member). Unless someone in C was obviously scum (i.e. quick-hammer) I would policy lynch the member in Group B. There is a 2/3rds chance you made the right call, hence 67% chance (not 67% chance of victory, I worded that wrong.)
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Post Post #223 (isolation #29) » Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:47 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 220, serrapaladin wrote:
In post 217, BBmolla wrote:Cause I do?

I don't really know how to answer that.

His thought on what someone would say as scum is different than mine.

So in what sense am I overreacting rather than just wrong? PN basically claimed that it made no sense to do anything but crossvote, and hence they didn't need to think about their reads. That logical inversion of reads and votes isn't a sensible way for town to think.

Zeb's maths is wrong, though I'm sure he believes it. Hitting town twice in a group makes it more likely that group was the all-town one, so everyone not conftown should be treated equally from D2.

...my bad.

Lucky2u, serrapaladin, what's your take on Courage?
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Post Post #228 (isolation #30) » Wed Feb 04, 2015 5:15 am

Post by Zebulin »

The 2nd person could be town or scum, 50/50 odds.

It didn't sound condescending, don't worry serra
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Post Post #246 (isolation #31) » Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:41 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 245, goodmorning wrote:So Molla is Town after all. Hm.


I would call this whiteknighting if it wasn't for the fact that those posts really are town.

The reason my BBMolla read keeps jumping is because he's posting very little compared to serra or Perpetual Nonsense or me, and that makes each townfilled or scumfilled post jump on my radar a lot more than a town or scum post from someone who's posted a lot.

Are we all using serra's system of voting? My votes are on Hopkirk, beastcharizard, and Perpetual Nonsense.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #32) » Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:47 am

Post by Zebulin »

I mean, he's had the 3rd most posts, but they're all one line each.
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Post Post #249 (isolation #33) » Thu Feb 05, 2015 4:04 am

Post by Zebulin »

In post 248, goodmorning wrote:
In post 246, Zebulin wrote:
In post 245, goodmorning wrote:So Molla is Town after all. Hm.

I would call this whiteknighting if it wasn't for the fact that those posts really are town.

Uh. What?

You haven't talked about BBMolla until now, and then you come up with a strong townread. If the posts weren't towny posts it would be really suspicious.
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Post Post #252 (isolation #34) » Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:12 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 250, goodmorning wrote:I haven't talked about him because he hasn't previously posted enough for me to remember trying to read him.

But that's not really the definition of WKing so idk


...looked up the definition. I was WAY off.

I meant it would be a weird townread out of the blue, but the posts really were town.

Sort of a soft defense without an attack.
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Post Post #253 (isolation #35) » Thu Feb 05, 2015 5:08 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Bump for more people to post.

All: Could you ask me direct questions? I feel that I can explain better if people do that.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #36) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 3:36 am

Post by Zebulin »

Hopkirk, beastcharizard, Perpetual Nonsense.
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Post Post #262 (isolation #37) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 1:26 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 256, Lucky2u wrote:Zeb, for humor's sake, show me your second and third pick orders for the groups.


NEVER!

Hopkirk > Lucky = goodmorning
beastcharizard > Scripten >> serrapaladin
Perpetual Nonsense > BBMolla

In post 257, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 255, Zebulin wrote:Perpetual Nonsense.

lol


This is not a case.

P-Edit: Thanks for posting that, it makes keeping track of scumpicks a lot easier.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #38) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 2:42 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 263, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 262, Zebulin wrote:
In post 257, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 255, Zebulin wrote:Perpetual Nonsense.

lol


This is not a case.

lol

This is not a case.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #39) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 4:21 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 267, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 249, Zebulin wrote:
In post 248, goodmorning wrote:
In post 246, Zebulin wrote:
In post 245, goodmorning wrote:So Molla is Town after all. Hm.

I would call this whiteknighting if it wasn't for the fact that those posts really are town.

Uh. What?

You haven't talked about BBMolla until now, and then you come up with a strong townread. If the posts weren't towny posts it would be really suspicious.


Here's a question. How were those posts townie posts?


Post 244 pointed out a very scummy post that had been missed by everyone else, beastcharizard's 234. Scum-Molla could've just ignored that post and town would have been worse off for it, with no pressure on Molla. 242 and 243 just sounded town (gut read). I'll answer your other post next, but I want to post now so you can see it.

What are your reads, and your thoughts on Serra's system of voting?
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Post Post #270 (isolation #40) » Fri Feb 06, 2015 6:44 pm

Post by Zebulin »

In post 229, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:
In post 211, BBmolla wrote:PN what is your read on me


no clue. But you know that from past games (I think Timeshift) where I deferred and hoped the rest would townread you since I have no clue. Same with the 1610 game which I got lynched in - you were SK and I had no clue.

the other groups seem to 'prefer' me gone (their opinions have become more numerous since I became active), and it does make me worried what their agenda is. However, that's paranoia and bottom line is they can't vote me, and words are just words.

I do know that 'Our' group is the focus of most discussion, which is disappointing as the other groups need more resolution. Probably because 'Our' group is the most active lately and the other groups have people coasting and/or just plain busy IRL.

I still think his thought processes (Zeb's) about me don't feel like he's trying to make sure he feels good about voting me. There's mostly talk about his 'percentages' in this game. Kinda rings empty. Lots of energy, sure, but not much else. Like passion, actively figuring out both Us and Molla (other groups too), or other things I attribute in my own past games. I see similarities in Our games and his because Zeb whined about getting lynched often and being lynchbait in past games, and stuff. So I use that to try to see in my microscope what I think of his play.

In post 197, Zebulin wrote:THese posts are assuming I'm just not counting BBMolla, but he still has a good chance of being scum. He's just not posting so I can't intercat with him and make a more educated guess as to his alignment.


His interactions are sort of one-way. He asks 'why' about everything, but there's so much more to talk about when he discusses my posts and your posts. There's much more he can go into considering how he is stressing how his interactions with you are lacking lately. So a certain openness is missing. Look at how he interacts with me/Us, and it's not quite as open as I'd like.

I didn't buy Gaiden's view about Zebulin at first, but I kinda see it now?


In post 197, Zebulin wrote:The problem with this post is that I don't have Molla as strongtown, not anymore. He stopped contributing to the discussion a while back and is basically prod-dodging, and that's dropped him to a null read.



Need to go to school now, will address other stuff later.


Here, he had just had Us as lean town earlier that day (hours ago), then says Molla has become null due to inactivity, yet just minutes ago he voted Us if you look at his previous posts. That doesn't add up.


I still think his thought processes (Zeb's) about me don't feel like he's trying to make sure he feels good about voting me. There's mostly talk about his 'percentages' in this game. Kinda rings empty. Lots of energy, sure, but not much else. Like passion, actively figuring out both Us and Molla (other groups too), or other things I attribute in my own past games. I see similarities in Our games and his because Zeb whined about getting lynched often and being lynchbait in past games, and stuff. So I use that to try to see in my microscope what I think of his play.
If you want to take my scumhunting and call it passionless that's okay, but don't use that to cement a scumread. As goodmorning's sig screams, "EFFORT IS NOT INDICATIVE OF ALIGNMENT". (I know she means posting effort but
my definition's different, okay?
)

His interactions are sort of one-way. He asks 'why' about everything, but there's so much more to talk about when he discusses my posts and your posts. There's much more he can go into considering how he is stressing how his interactions with you are lacking lately. So a certain openness is missing. Look at how he interacts with me/Us, and it's not quite as open as I'd like.
I have no idea what you mean by this.

Here, he had just had Us as lean town earlier that day (hours ago), then says Molla has become null due to inactivity, yet just minutes ago he voted Us if you look at his previous posts. That doesn't add up.
Having someone go from lean town to null isn't unusual, and I voted you because you were the scummiest player in Courage at the time (and still are). The way this setup seems to work is that you should still vote townreads if the other person in the group is a strong townread.

beastcharizard: Why the scumread on serra? Why the scumread on Lucky2u?
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Post Post #280 (isolation #41) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 6:16 am

Post by Zebulin »

Um, beastcharizard, serra's a guy.

PN: At this point I'm being scumread by 2/3rds of the players, including both other members of Courage, so I'm trying to sort out everyone and guess correctly who's scum in my last post so people take my reads seriously D2 and D3 and lynch the scum those days. My money right now is on beastcharizard and you/Hopkirk. Serra seems extremely town, why are you all scumreading him?
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Post Post #286 (isolation #42) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:49 am

Post by Zebulin »

Serra: If beastcharizard is your largest scumread, why isn't your vote on him?
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Post Post #287 (isolation #43) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:50 am

Post by Zebulin »

beastcharizard: If serra is your largest scumread, why isn't your vote on him?
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Post Post #292 (isolation #44) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 4:42 pm

Post by Zebulin »

Alright, with less then a day left and a Day 1 lynch for me almost certain, I can say outrageously scummy things and it won't matter. Please take my reads seriously day 2.


We (courage) are probably the townbloc. As much as I hate to say it, Perpetual Nonsense had really good points in our arguments and I had just screwed up my play in such a way where town can point out the logical flaws I overlooked and get a accidental mislynch just as easily as scum can. I then tried to avoid being lynched, failed epically, and Perpetual called me out on it. If the Power and/or Wisdom lynchee flips town, I'd greatly prefer it if you lynch from that group.

Beastcharizard needs to die. Just freaking lynch him already.

Serra's obviously town and is the person making the most effort towards the game, and I have no idea why people are scumreading him. I'd bet the game on him being town if it was real lylo right now if I had the choice.

goodmorning's probably town, but she's not recieving nearly enough pressure for lots of vague statements, and that worries me. Hopkirk is still the most likely Power scum for the prod dodges everywhere (it could be the he actually has a life, but he could at least take a stance on people who aren't in Power).

Don't lynch Perpetual tomorrow based on my townflip. I might lynch Scripten if beastcharizard flips town though, as there's been a tunnel all game and I'm confident that's a TvM argument.

goodmorning and Perpetual need to post their full reads before the day ends if they are at the computer.

Power: hammer right now. Serra: hammer beastcharizard right now. We have less then a day.

Hopkirk > Lucky2u = goodmorning
beastcharizard >> scripten >> serrapaladin
BBMolla >= Perpetual Nonsense

Very Town:
serrapaladin

Town:
Perpetual Nonsense

Leaning Town:
goodmorning, BBMolla

Null:
Lucky2u, Scripten

Leaning Scum:
Hopkirk

Scum:
Very Scum:
beastcharizard





Well, I'm going to sleep, and I'll probably be dead by the time I wake up. Good luck town, and please keep these thoughts in mind.

:dead:
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Post Post #296 (isolation #45) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 4:34 am

Post by Zebulin »

Serra is town and I don't know what you people are thinking. Sheep him tomorrow. (If you're scum serra, I'm quitting the site.)

goodmorning needs to be scrutinized, or at least have some pressure on her.

Power: hammer already!
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Post Post #308 (isolation #46) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:15 pm

Post by Zebulin »

YES!


I don't feel bad about the mislynch now.
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