Micro 440: Triplicate Mafia - Game Over

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: witness protection
for justice

[serrapaladin]

Yup, always hammering scum.

Pedit: aww, don't ruin the fun

[serrapaladin]

I most regret that I won't be able to vote Bert until d2.

Hi Bert!

[serrapaladin]

You scum bro@

[serrapaladin]

?

[serrapaladin]

Perp feels like Perptown, but I haven't played with them before, so my meta divings are probably not super indicative.

wat

[serrapaladin]

<3

[serrapaladin]

Hey scripten, you around?

[serrapaladin]

Tell me something about my meta, scrip?

[serrapaladin]

GM is town

[serrapaladin]

UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

@zeb: how do you tell TvT and TvM apart?

Statistically, we may want to consider lynching via an intergroup pseudo-vote system, using FoSes or something.

[serrapaladin]

@gm: does his frustration read genuine to you?

[serrapaladin]

@Serrapaladin: Why are you relying on GM to tell you what to think? I get that you have a town read on her (I do, too, atm) but you seem to be deferring to her because of it.

I'm not, nor did I suggest I would defer to her opinion. I have an opinion on it and want to check if that lines up with hers. Asking this way around is much more likely to give useful results than me arguing my opinion and then asking if people agree.

is there something shorter I can call you?

serra or sp? though I don't get why you need to ask me this...

@ Serrapalidan Why should you be allowed to make it to Tomorrow? Please come out and give your opinion of what's happened so far. A little more than a short quip would be great.

Do you think my posts so far reflect a lack of engagement with the game?

Zeb could be town, actually. I think PN is more likely to be the scum in that group.

[serrapaladin]

Do you think my posts so far reflect a lack of engagement with the game?

Well, actually, yes. Your posts are short, and haven't said much at all until recently. It makes it hard to get a read from posts like your early ones. Your posts show your reading the game, and aware of what's going on in thread.

Your posting reminds me of Saki's play, and he's always a wildcard when I've played with him. I'd like to see more of you, I need to be reassured your not scum slipping under the radar.

:/

I said that the scum motivation from asserting that you are part of the all-town group would be insurance for after a lynch. Say serrapaladin or myself flipped town. "Oh, well, that must mean that we're the all-town group. Hahaha, I was right. What a funny coincidence."

This is way worse than anything I posted, because this reasoning assumes that everyone in this game is a complete and utter idiot.

Does it really? I could easily see scum subtly pushing the notion that their group is all town, if not as obviously as scrip suggests.

[serrapaladin]

So WP seems to be playing down the importance of detail and subtlety, which is lame.

The way your phrased your question to her makes it a lot easier for you to just go "yeah that" and not give us any of your own thoughts. There's nothing inherently wrong with it, other than that I would like to see more from you than GM right now, since she's been fairly active.

Then why not wait for it to play out and then call me out for sheeping gm's opinion?

This is... strange timing, considering I just made a light reference to you deferring to GM's scumhunting. Can you explain your townread of Zebulin?

It seems he actually thought about whether you v WP is TvT or TvM, in the context of his model.

[serrapaladin]

I can't really read him either, but first impressions on his other head pinged a little bit.

[serrapaladin]

@gm: does his frustration read genuine to you?

In some ways, but the jumping around reads fake.

This is way worse than anything I posted, because this reasoning assumes that everyone in this game is a complete and utter idiot.

Obviously I was working from a bit of hyperbole, but still... you don't often see scum placing little things into their posts that are meant to slightly push the town to keep suspicion off of them?

You DO see them. That's my point. There is very little that a Scum can do that's going to be THAT subtle.

I said that the scum motivation from asserting that you are part of the all-town group would be insurance for after a lynch. Say serrapaladin or myself flipped town. "Oh, well, that must mean that we're the all-town group. Hahaha, I was right. What a funny coincidence."

This is way worse than anything I posted, because this reasoning assumes that everyone in this game is a complete and utter idiot.

Does it really? I could easily see scum subtly pushing the notion that their group is all town, if not as obviously as scrip suggests.

Yes, but you'd have to be an idiot not to look at all options no matter what anyone else says.

ugh 110 is not even a good post
why do you people think he is town

Scrip wasn't really using his frustration in a way that might give him an advantage, so I quite like him for town. I don't really know what you mean by him "jumping around"?

I don't have a full-blown townread on zeb, but I have no doubt that town!zebulin could absolutely come up with an interpretation of BB's meta and apply it as in 110, be it correct or not. I somewhat liked that his early play felt somewhat loose. That being said. the only questions he's asked that are actually relevant to his actions and understanding of the game are why people are voting for him, which could well be the scummy flavour of self-preservation. There were some details in PN's posts that pinged more than anything by zeb though - mentioning how much time we have on the DL for one, and the unrequested list of whom to lynch, going very much along the path of least resistance. I don't buy that people can read that slot from the level of seriousness.

I still need to ISO the other third of Wisdom, but from what I remember, he hasn't said much of anything. He did ask if Scripten was around once, then never followed up when he (Scripten )said he was.

Why are you not giving my play any thought? Like, I'm one of the two people you want to read today, and you dismiss my entire early play as "not much of anything" because I wasn't wallposting.

@BB: explain 109? It seems to me "sigh" is becoming the next "eyeroll" type reaction for scum to embrace.

Under most potential conditions, 111 makes me think lucky is town.

I'm not currently voting because accidental quickhammers actually seem quite easy to happen, and I don't think treating the votes as a 3 separate LyLo's is the best thing to do. I should probably commit a full post to this rather than tagging it onto the end here, though.

[serrapaladin]

I would propose we open the question of whom to lynch in each group to all of us, deciding by majority in each case if possible, runoff if not.

As is, we have the following issues with our voting system:

- members of the all-town group can't actually vote for scum today

- while randomly lynching in a 3p LyLo has a 1/3 town EV, in reality only takes 1 of the 2 town to vote wrongly for scum to win, giving a real EV somewhere closer to 1/4

- scum interactions will be much harder to gauge, since some people will not necessarily focus on all groups. leading on from that, mislynches in a group could easily be used D2 by out-of-group scum to push a mislynch of someone in the group.

I don't think us talking about all groups really compensates for the concrete opinions that should underpin voting.

[serrapaladin]

Do you think we should all just list the other players in order of scumminess, separated by groups? I feel like this is what you're suggesting, but I'm not sure.

Preferably, we'd get majority consensus in all groups, but yes.

...so PN providing his reads pinged you? Or is it just that they were close to current sentiment?

The latter.

Hello all. I have read the whole game. I think Serra is scum. I think Lucky is also scum. Don't really scum read the other group.

Serra's post feel middle roadish or they are just confusing. I remember one post where I just thought: "What the fuck?" I will go find it and quote it to explain more.

It seems he actually thought about whether you v WP is TvT or TvM, in the context of his model.

This post just seems like a way to town read someone for no reason.

Do you not understand my reason? Or do you think it's invalid?

[serrapaladin]

Here's my lynch preferences in each group at the moment:

Hopkirk > lucky > gm

BC > scrip > serra

PN > zeb = BB

[serrapaladin]

There is no reason to make further considerations if you aren't going to vote Molla. A Molla lynch then becomes impossible. That leaves only two choices. You, and Me. Please don't twist my words.
A vote on Molla makes no sense and has no point given you townreading him, and you thinking We are more scummy than Molla.

This is thinking about votes and reads tactically rather than organically.

[serrapaladin]

Right now, I see you're prodding people to talk more and checking on their activity.

However, if you're town, your survival means the most right now

to you, more than figuring our the other blocks seeing as you're the one most likely to die right now, being the only one player with a majority of two votes.

Nope.

[serrapaladin]

Mind you, Zeb also doesn't look great on that last page, but I'd rather lynch PN.

[serrapaladin]

Cause I do?

I don't really know how to answer that.

His thought on what someone would say as scum is different than mine.

So in what sense am I overreacting rather than just wrong? PN basically claimed that it made no sense to do anything but crossvote, and hence they didn't need to think about their reads. That logical inversion of reads and votes isn't a sensible way for town to think.

Zeb's maths is wrong, though I'm sure he believes it. Hitting town twice in a group makes it more likely that group was the all-town one, so everyone not conftown should be treated equally from D2.

[serrapaladin]

It's probably the group for which I'm least confident about my reads, but I'm currently leaning towards PN.

Sorry if that sounded condescending, btw. The structure of probabilities here is somewhat similar to the Monty Hall problem, which is well-known for having a counter-intuitive solution.

[serrapaladin]

Zeb* autocorrect hates you.

Hitting 1 scum today will end up like this

A: Town, Town (dead scum)
B: Town, Town (dead town)
C: Town, Scum (dead mislynched town)

Scum will kill from A because they are both now conf town. Leaving us with

A: Town (confirmed)
B: Town Town (unconfirmed)
C: Town Scum (unconfirmed)

We will lynch between B and C for the rest of the game.

And that is what he said - he didn't get the mechanics wrong, just the probabilities.

[serrapaladin]

You have the impression I didn't scumread your slot before your replace in?

[serrapaladin]

Could everyone that hasn't done so please give lynch preferences for each group?

I'll take another look at hopkirk/lucky tomorrow. Probably.

[serrapaladin]

That's a blatant lie, bc. Your entrance doesn't correlate with my level of engagement at all. I won't pretend I've been particularly active, but you have fewer than 10 posts, all of which are calling me scum and not much else.

My town read wasn't for zeb sticking to his logic, but rather showing that he had some original thought about whether the ongoing discussion was TvT or TvM.

Having lucky as your largest scumread because you always scumread him is truly awful.

[serrapaladin]

Because it reflected genuine effort to discern scrip/wp's alignments.

And do you not think it's terrible that BC acknowledges that he's scum reading someone he always does?

[serrapaladin]

And if you always scumread someone, maybe that's a sign you should adjust your baseline for them?

[serrapaladin]

Probably because I couldn't possibly be town reading you...

[serrapaladin]

Which reflects poorly on your ability to look at someone's play in context.

[serrapaladin]

The reason you're only pushing me is that that's what you need to do to survive, beast.

What in my comments about zeb was ill-explained? I don't care whether or not you agree.

[serrapaladin]

Because that would effectively be L-1, and I'm hoping to still something intelligible about Power before we see a hammer.

[serrapaladin]

I don't know about that. Sometimes analysing things as 'TvT' or 'TvS' is an easy way for Scum to look like they're trying to discern people's alignments.

Right. Exactly. That's why I asked the following:

UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

@zeb: how do you tell TvT and TvM apart?

Statistically, we may want to consider lynching via an intergroup pseudo-vote system, using FoSes or something.

To which his response was this:

UNVOTE:

I think I'd probably rather lynch scripten between him and WP.

@zeb: how do you tell TvT and TvM apart?

Statistically, we may want to consider lynching via an intergroup pseudo-vote system, using FoSes or something.

I think TvT arguments tend to be argued over semantics, with logical and precise reasoning on both sides over a point that was debatable in the first place (difference in play philosophy or NK analysis). TvM arguments tend to be all-out walls of text about hard evidence, and scum sometimes (hopefully) slips up in their fake argument. It's not a guaranteed system, but it's worked for all my games so far. The Witness vs Scripten argument is very wally and the posts contradict each other, so SOMEONE is lying.

Which I found to actually be somewhat thoughtful, and suggested he had actually thought about the witness/scrip argument, and I agree with his logic and conclusion. Had his response been "uh, it just sort of feels TvM", I'd very much have gone the other way on him.

This was the first post in which I'd changed my mind about scrip:

@gm: does his frustration read genuine to you?

[serrapaladin]

You're worrying me

When people say that theory is not alignment indicative, that's referring to explicitly theoretical arguments of optimal play independent of reads. His "theory" is his own model of how town and scum interact in certain conditions, which he applies with some consideration. The fact that you're simultaneously pushing him as scum and accusing me of wking seems like you're anticipating him flipping town, so you can start pushing me tomorrow.

[serrapaladin]

I guess I'd better

VOTE: beastcharizard

so we're not at risk of NLing

[serrapaladin]

3 hours, folks...

[serrapaladin]

Well he's right. I'd engage with you, but none of your points are legit, and you're scum, so...

[serrapaladin]

Woop

[serrapaladin]

Thanks for modding, nm. Sorry for using up my prods.

I really like the setup. I wonder how balanced it is.

[serrapaladin]

Nice call on you guys being the town block.

What do people think of strategy and balance for this? Pseudo-votes is probably the way to go, even if it's a bit hard to organise, and even harder to enforce. Treating it as 3 LyLo's definitely lowers the EV.