Micro 441: Less Pressure

[Malakittens]

Official Vote Count

Xayzeck

(4): Jingle, Dry-fit, Huntress, TellTaleHeart

Jingle

(1): Xayzeck

Not Voting

(3): ++--, goodmorning, Pine

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-02-21 22:45:00)

[Xayzeck]

Back to the "gm hammers me, at least 1 scum on wagon ahemahem Jingle"

[Xayzeck]

What gave me that impression was Xay's switch to Pine at the end of Day one.

associative before a flip?

gasp

[Xayzeck]

Jingle's recent stance on Pine sucks

Huntress' stance on Pine also sucks

I think we could be dealing with Jingle/Huntress/Pine, but then ++-- isn't there so something is wrong.

It could just be that Pine is lynchbaity right now so Jingle and Huntress both want to lynch him to some degree but are going with their compromise right now, or they're both town and Pine is scum trying to lurk through while get lynched

hm decisions decisions

[Jingle]

Right, and your OMGUS is totally convincing. Have you considered logical arguments describing behavior? No? Maybe because you can't. Somebody hammer him, he's caught scum, and he's not even putting in effort at this point.

[goodmorning]

Effort isn't (usually) indicative of alignment.

I'm going to hammer Xay, but first I'd like an "I'm dead so here is what you should do the rest of the game" post. With detailed reads.

[Xayzeck]

Jingle is scum, because it doesn't take a lynch to notice how weak his push is on me. He's calling me scum off my scum-meta from a year ago?

Even if it were applicable, I've played like this as town as well. I could pull a game up for you where I did literally nothing but got townread for it.

Also since he's started the tunnel, his stances on other players have been super limited, and when they do appear they're mostly on the fence.

I'm willing to bet Jingle scum is playing it this way:
Xay isn't putting in much effort, I could push it as scummy and use his scummeta, since he says it himself that he's more interested as town than scum, like in his wiki. My previous games where he is scum back this up, so he can't refute the point about "meta only works if you play with me". After that, when he flips town, I won't get as much heat, because:
a) Everybody saw him as scummy, not just me
b) Even if he did nail any scum, he'd get brushed off because he didn't explain his reads a lot so everything he says will likely be ignored
c) Since he's pretty lynchbaity, everybody on the wagon could just be mislead town on a town-who-is-scummy wagon and I could slip by

I could push that for a lot of people, but I think it fits Jingle most since:
a) He's played with me the most probably, and I think he understands my meta fairly well
b) He's the only one who's yelling for my lynch

I think ++-- is scum because most of his analysis/reads he has shared don't seem to look much into alignment/feel really superficial and he's just trying to look like an active contributor to discussion

I think Huntress is kinda town based of Jinglescum's early push on her, but I don't have a big impression on her. I don't have much of a read on Dryfit and Pine either, but I'm leaning Pinescum over Dryfit. These three are like nulltown/nullscum kinda reads.

[Xayzeck]

He didn't need to say anything here. But he is. He's trying to find out why people think the way they do, and yet he's still holding true to his read. He's not going where the wind may take him, but actually taking a stance and fighting for his reads.

Although, looking at that last one again, he might be a Xay partner.

Stuff like this, with Jinglescum, strongly suggests Pine is his scumbuddy as opposed to potential mislynch.

[Xayzeck]

Jingle/++--/Pine

Yeah that's about it

[Jingle]

I'm calling you scum because as a logical, careful person, I don't see how it's possible that you missed a core mechanic of the game, and I see why youscum was doing it. But sure, argue how I'm scum. It'll only make me look better when we see your flip.

Who are you gonna kill?

[++--]

Right, and your OMGUS is totally convincing. Have you considered logical arguments describing behavior? No? Maybe because you can't. Somebody hammer him, he's caught scum, and he's not even putting in effort at this point.

To be fair, noone (incl. the ICs) is putting in effort to the game. Plus, there are a few things that point towards badtown instead of obvscum, namely, 1. he only started giving poor arguments recently, which is indicative of a possible townie, as scum usually starts doing so quite early, 2. he is stubborn (see the constant "++-- is scum hurrdurrdurr" posts), which I personally consider as a towntell (most scum players alter their "reads" quite often). For scum points, sure enough, he has 1. the most recent shitty arguments 2. the meta, but even considering this, I would say that the likelihood of Xay is slightly under 50%, which is pretty low in this setup. Or, in other words, right now, my townread is being lynched and I don't like this. Dry-fit, on the other hand, does not show a (considerably) better play than Xay, however, his posts contain looooots of poorly constructed reasoning, multiple supposedly-town-tells about following the ICs. Pine has similar problems, but at least no "omg I follow the IC, just look at me, how townie I am" posts. Huntress didn't really post anything that could result in a good read (using my methods, at least), and Jingle is stubborn, but has poor reasoning, so these cancel out. So, basically, I'm becoming more and more certain that my reads in #229 are correct.

[Huntress]

Jingle/++--/Pine

Yeah that's about it

Which is the conclusion I came to in 118.

I'm

really

not liking that ++-- and Pine are neither posting nor voting (well ++-- has just posted but still no vote). Dry-fit's not posting either but he has at least voted.

Jingle's "Bussing is stupid in this setup." comment is still bothering me. Because it's not true. If scum refuse to bus they're going to stick out like a sore thumb.

Actually I'm up for a switch to either ++-- or Pine as they have more chance of being scum than Xay. But I'm not moving my vote unless there is genuine interest in lynching either one.

[++--]

Why would voting/not voting matter though?

[goodmorning]

@++--: What do you think of Jingle?

@Everyone, generally: Yeah, if the VTs could start towning it up sometime that would be great.

[++--]

@goodmorning mostly null, maybe slightly more townie-ish than Huntress, but definitely not a lot more

[Jingle]

In other news huntress is day's partner, and I've solved the goddamn game.

[Jingle]

Jingle's "Bussing is stupid in this setup." comment is still bothering me. Because it's not true. If scum refuse to bus they're going to stick out like a sore thumb.

Bussing =\= distancing.

And no, they wouldn't. You push one person to lynch. I would bet that scum have each other as secondary or tertiary scum reads.

But sure, correct theory is scummy, especially from a theory guy.

[TellTaleHeart]

In other news huntress is day's partner, and I've solved the goddamn game.

*looks at watch*

Just waiting on that flip.

If Xay isn't scum, you're next sweetie. ^_^

[Jingle]

Cool Deal. But he will, so...

Also, I'm out until Monday, so you'll all have to live without me for a day. Try not to break too much glass and clean up after yourselves, because I won't be here to babysit you.

[Huntress]

Why would voting/not voting matter though?

Because in this setup if scum doesn't bus then we need every townie voting unamimously to get a lynch, so if you're town we may not be able to get a lynch on scum without you.

Bussing =\= distancing.

And no, they wouldn't. You push one person to lynch. I would bet that scum have each other as secondary or tertiary scum reads.

I'm talking about bussing, not distancing. If we lynch scum we look at those not on the wagon, which means at least one scum has to be on the wagon otherwise they're out in the open. Bussing is good play for scum here. But then, so is abstaining as it just drags the game out and we end up with a compromise lynch, probably on town.


I can't make my mind up whether Xay or Jingle is scum, or both or even neither. So I'm going back to those I have decent scum reads on: Pine and ++--. Pine has been refusing to answer questions and has been posting in other games while avoiding this one.

Vote: Pine

@ ++--:

If you think Xay is town, then who on the the wagon do you think is scum and why aren't you voting them?

@ Pine:

If you think Xay is town, then who on the the wagon do you think is scum and why aren't you voting them?

[Huntress]

Dry-fit hasn't posted for six days and Pine for four.

Dry-fit is the reason I have a sneaking feeling that both Xay and Jingle may be town.

[Malakittens]

I prodded both dry and pine last night. If they don't pick it up when I'm home from work I'll look for replacements.

[Pine]

I'm here, I've been really busy. I'll catch up this evening

[Malakittens]

Lookin for a dry fit replacement.

[goodmorning]

ugh i don't know if i want to hammer xay now