I agree that she needs to get the hell in here and start posting real soon
though mostly it's because about half the game is still quite likely town and she's in the half that should eventually become corpses instead of actually scumreading her
In post 6475, Untrod Tripod wrote:so I actually think that baning me is a solid choice today. the downside of mislynching me is still pretty high, and in all likelihood I'll still be a good choice for the scum kill tonight so that allows you to wait it out until we have some more breathing room for the mislynch if you're still dead set on doing that
otherwise I kind of want to bane mastin or vezok
which also is imo why trying to out the real Alquin if you don't believe me is super fucking sketchy
okay
actually what the fuck are you talking about
the bane doesn't do anything meaningful. why are you suggesting baning yourself.
not counting towards annihilation wincon would only matter if we were at like 9-10 people alive atm with all scum still alive. that's not the case.
taking away your vote for a day doesn't matter. it just doesn't. it just gives you even more of an excuse to be useless. if it's on 4nx at least he can just get lynched faster and speed up some shit.
I think it's pretty clear that Titus didn't expect to die last night, and I pretty strongly think that she would have kept trying to keep 4nx alive today and that the kills of TTH and Oversoul, although they were also both pretty much obvtown, would have made it much harder to lynch 4nx. Your thoughts?
I don't think she ever really thought 4nx would flip at all before lategame. If you think it's possible it was a super-long con then *shrug* but she definitely didn't intend to have 4nx flip today either if she was still alive.
even if mastin is scum there's still two more and not lynching someone so a scumbuddy's scumlist doesn't flip is a reeeeal big stretch.
I do want everyone to pop in with their opinions before ultimately hammering in the Choice but I feel like this is pretty much as good of a chance at actually getting the positive end of that choice as we could ever theoretically get. And yeah don't
just
take my word for it because I'm the type of player that's willing to take big risks if the player is scummy enough but do seriously think about whether any of the possibilities you're coming up with for 4nx being town are actually likely.
Agree that the completely meaningless bane should get the hell done
I do need to remind you that bulba already flipped something that used "protection" and that just going by the expectation that hito put in at least one 'real' protection role for town instead of using it in a modified way for bulba and giving scum a doc instead is a thing that could happen.
Tbf its definitely not a point against her but anyone's read on mastin really should be on what she's done instead of what's she's claimed
For people wanting/considering keeping 2 lynches instead of risking for 1/3, can you give me something on why you think 4nx might be town? you don't have to believe it makes him LIKELY town but I would like to actually talk about that instead of just me talking about how I think his claim and defense from titus is super likely to be coming from scum, and I don't think there's anything in his recent posting that wouldn't be really easy for scum to create.
we have kind of sort of X amount of lynches left in the game to lynch Y amount of scum, and it's not amazingly high but I don't think it's awfully low either.
The key points are that it looks like to me it's 4 lynches to hit two scum or likely lose if we keep, 3 lynches (including the 4nx lynch) to lynch 1 scum to proobably not lose unless scum pull off a triple kill if we lynch 4nx-town with the first lynch of trade, or an 4nx-scum lynch after trade that requires one more scum lynch somewhere in the next 4 lynches to basically ensure we get something resembling a LYLO/MYLO with 3/1 or 2/1.
if i math it out we have 12 alive now so assuming we keep we'll have two more, then be at probably 8 players and have two more lynches if we lynch no more scum before then. if we hit only one scum instead of two in there we still have a pretty large chance of losing after 4 lynches, but if scum only hit one target then we try to find the last two with two more lynches (approximation would be 9/3->5/3->4/2 night->loss or 3/2)
worst case is 1 more, then be at 9 players, and still have basically two more lynches to hit a scum, but it does get difficult there if we only lynch one scum by then.
approximation would be 9/3->6/3->5/2->small chance of loss but probably 3/2
best case would be 7/2 after 4nx correct lynch if the next two are mislynches, then 5/2, then either a loss going into night at 3/2 or having a guaranteed actually two-lynch lylo of 4/1->2/1.
If we don't lynch two scum in the next two major days keeping or trading incorrectly, we are in a really bad spot. the scenario we're trading for would essentially be betting that we can lynch two out of three scum if 4nx isn't scum compared to having a triple kill win risk if we only get 1 out of 2 scum after an 4nx lynch but more likely getting another two lynches to lynch the final two scum.
On the other hand, if 4nx is scum and we trade for it, we get 4 lynches to hit a single additional scum, and then get what's basically a real LYLO.
Yes the situation of 4nx being town and trading is incredibly dicey, but lynching 2/3 scum after if we keep is also going to be very sketchy to deal with.
The alternative if 4nx is scum, the game swings HARD in our favor and gives us a huge number of lynches with absolutely no chance of losing the game unless we miss the next 4 consecutive lynches.
like if we keep, I think we should massclaim (EXCEPT SIGNS IT SHOULD BE OBVIOUS BUT FOR ALL THE BEAUTIFUL THINGS IN THE UNIVERSE DO NOT CLAIM YOUR SIGN) at the start of major day 3. From that point we have to hit 50% scum on the four lynches we have to prevent a loss, and massclaiming might narrow down shit enough to make sure that happens.
@cheet-awful is actually two different things there
awful a) is you get two lynches to hit 1/3 scum and have a small chance at losin and otherwise needing to lynch the last two scum the next day, or two lynches to hit 2/3 scum for no chance at all of losing then.
awful b) is you get 3 lynches to kill 2 scum or you have a VERY large chance of losing the game.
b is clearly better but it's still a sketchy as hell place to be in, while trading correctly puts us in an amazingly powerful situation.
this is the idealist/bullshit philospher in me talking but
every mislynch from this point onward will put us exponentially closer to fucked unless we get down to 1 scum OR we trade successfully. Just about every lynch we're making from this point onwards is going to be very, very, very important if we choose keep or trade incorrectly. Yes, choosing trade frontloads an enormous amount of that risk. But it doesn't go away if we choose to keep.
What are you confident in then. yes this is a serious question I want the strongest opinion you have about the game.
Very, very soon we will almost certainly come to a point where a single lynch will likely decide the game. Do you want that to be the lynch on 4nx, or on one of the vague lurkers, or someone you think might have bussed Titus into the ground? We can't eliminate risk just by keeping an average number of lynches. But right now we have a choice of where to put that risk.
and since i bothered doing fuckin' MATH for this I want everyone to actually have a damn opinion and vote for one of the choices. if a choice gets closer than you'd like it to be to being hammered then say you'd vote it normally and hold off, but everyone reserving their opinion on what could very well be a turning point in the game for either side is absolutely miserable waste of an opportunity to analyze people's motivations.
In post 6624, Untrod Tripod wrote:mastin jumping on my pet scumread (gamma) is... interesting, to say the least
I disagree
using VCA to point out votehopping people is a pretty worthless copout that tends to replace actual scumhunting for most of the people who use it.
if she wanted to say I'm scum for any of the actual pushes themselves instead of pointing to the votes and saying 'omg look over there' THAT would be interesting though.
if you want vote analysis that ISN'T shit, take a look at Titus's votes so far.
She tried over and over again to try to get espy lynched, jumped on AD when he was at 6-7 votes, and was one of the first two off once AD made a half-decent looking post. It's definitely not enough on its own to go 'oh man better start calling the scumteam' but I think it's worth going over AD a bit more later for it.
why does everyone have to make this more complicated than it is
vote for the one you want to not die the most, there's already a possible roleblocker around, giving a shit about mastin is not something that should happen in regards for this.
AD being likely town when Titus was I think the first (but maybe the second) person to bail on it when ffery showed signs of wanting to slow it down is not an intelligent conclusion to make.
Saying I'm the only possible scum on singer's wagon when Titus was on it and has already flipped scum is pretty dumb
Saying that bulba's wagon was scum-driven is your opinion that is not actually based on the flips of the people on his wagon so far
I'm not going to bother checking right now but there are probably a few flipped townies that were on most of the same wagons as vezok and I and saying ohhh man they're the only ones left some of them must be scum is also dumb considering the speed of a lot of those wagons
also think that voting a lot of people in this game where every single lynch has dragged on and on and on is not any more likely to come from scum than town with a particular playstyle
you're probably going to tunnel on me anyway after 4nx gets lynched but I don't think it'll matter very much in the long run.
also also saying that I'm scum for being on Aronis's wagon when I spent days trying to convince people to lynch 4nx instead before finally giving up at the end when aronis didn't bother coming in and finishing his claim (while you, in the meantime, did literally nothing for several days straight) is basically taking the context of the situation and skullfucking it.
Cheet I feel like you're kind of making up a possible scenario where I could be scum given your results instead of thinking about whether that's more likely than any alternative scenarios.
Id rather not fullclaim but I have a special minor night action I dont mind claiming, it might have to wait til sunday though, im out of town now.
In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net.%20orum/viewtopic.php?p=6908402#p6908402]post 6707[/url], Gammagooey wrote:Cheet I feel like you're kind of making up a possible scenario where I could be scum given your results instead of thinking about whether that's more likely than any alternative scenarios.
Id rather not fullclaim but I have a special minor night action I dont mind claiming, it might have to wait til sunday though, im out of town now.
Vote:4nx
So you didnt detect or trace?
My minor night action functions as both a detect and a trace on the target. In terms of how it affects other people's actions on me AND in the results I get.
In post 6698, Cheetory6 wrote:I was expecting being suspicious after my claim.
I was not expecting for your team to 180 their read on me when I've literally been covering for you all game since D1.
I'm literally the only reason you've been off the table as a lynch.
Fuckin' ingrates.
Also man I pushed real real hard for esp to not die
I traced+detected cheet to see if he'd detect someone like singer/shadoweh since he doesn't have much suspicion on him and might think he could get away with it as scum. Used the combination trace/detect on cheet n2 and n3, got no result for both trace results for him, and im not sharing the detect results because that's a bad idea.
And I dont think I mentioned this earlier: the combination detect/trace is mandatory. I dont have the normal detect & trace abilities at all, just this minor night ability.
Ill summarize my claim later if it seems useful to do.
Cheetory I know you're excited about something but spell out why you actually think 4nx's flip makes me scum. Maybe I'm wrong but if it's what I'm guessing it is your logic would require the order of a few things that happened in-game to be different from what they actually were.
THIS IS MY ISO REGARDING 4NX AND ARONIS. From the point that I voted 4nx yesterday because he wasn't a town read and because tth and oversoul were voting him.
Spoiler: so many fucking words
In post 5840, Gammagooey wrote:pretty sure sheeping tth and oversoul is a lot more useful to actually making the game function than me having my own opinion and he's not a town read so
informing if someone is viktor jarvik seems really really specific and weird.
In post 5931, Gammagooey wrote:like if viktor is the last or second to last scum we already pretty much have the ability to plan mass-trace+detect combinations of people and PoE him
why would we get another role that fucks them over even more if Viktor is one of the last survivors to lategame?
In post 5934, Gammagooey wrote:also I don't think this should be considered nearly as much as the Viktor-specific investigation role
but him claiming to trace singer n1 when singer's recently claimed her trace on UT would probably be the go-to easily fakable result if he detected then and needed to make up a trace there.
I think this claim is more likely than not coming from scum.
In post 5939, Gammagooey wrote:pretty sure pretty much everyone has a trace, its just much more advantageous for scum to detect when they think nobody's tracing them to get a sign for a kill later. and dv minor n1 would definitely fit that.
In post 5940, Gammagooey wrote:also let's not talk about the little minor thing about his claim forever
why a viktor specific investigation role? I don't think that's a real thing that exists.
In post 5931, Gammagooey wrote:like if viktor is the last or second to last scum we already pretty much have the ability to plan mass-trace+detect combinations of people and PoE him
why would we get another role that fucks them over even more if Viktor is one of the last survivors to lategame?
In post 5943, Gammagooey wrote:like it really does seem like he just wanted to claim an investigative role so he made one based on the sample role PMs.
there are a bunch of possibilities of him either having a slightly different oracle fakeclaim or him having a VT fakeclaim and wanting to modify it to be investigative if the other fakeclaims make more sense as the other scum given scum abilities and such.
In post 5949, Gammagooey wrote:tbf i would be pretty fine with aronis getting run up again tomorrow
but this is a pretty bad claim and 4nx should die.
actually i'll probably share a few opinions after lunch so I can fuck off and get things done for most of the rest of the day in case a lynch happens before tomorrow
i've already explained exactly why I think what I do about the claim
I think it's very likely made up by scum and you using hito's wording of Viktor's ability to defend 4nx when it needs to be worded that way to function with how it returns no result when the tracer is also being traced is fucking horrific.
if Viktor is one of the last two scum remaining, we could basically just drop everything and make a claimplan to find viktor. i suggested something similar to this day 1. we force 3-4 people to detect, and have anyone that's tracing target one of them without claiming which. Chances are we clear at least 2-3 people of being viktor, and if someone has a no result on them from multiple people they're MCUH more likely, although not guaranteed, to be Viktor.
Having a role that has a sole purpose of finding Viktor even faster does not make sense to me.
I strongly, strongly believe that 4nx is making a very poor claim that is essentially exactly what scum would claim in this situation.
if you REALLY think that aronis is scum I want you to go back through his iso and actually make a case for him being scum, ideally in the next 24 hours because the deadline's hitting really soon.
I see that aronis's play is generally bad but if you want it A LOT over what I think is 4nx's likely scum-motivated claim and generally mediocre play (and deas hasn't been amazing even though he was definitely at least good early game i think) then I would really think you should fight for it or just join what I think is a very good reason to lynch 4nx.
In post 6132, Gammagooey wrote:I don't think DV saying that he didn't want to do the trace/detect plan day 1 points to him having the role he's claimed- it's tangentially relevant yes but I don't think that him saying that he doesn't want to follow the plan actually makes it more likely that he has that role. I don't see a reason why that decision would be changed by having a slightly stronger trace than everyone else, and I still think that his role as he's claimed it doesn't make sense to exist.
And whoever said that he was tracing people that other people weren't looking at is ABSOLUTELY wrong. empire was almost baned right before DV supposedly traced him, and espeonage has been considered for being lynched and baned throughout the entire game.
In post 6243, Gammagooey wrote:I don't think I can actually express how much I despise Titus eating up 4nx's claim for "giving us Viktor" when there's no reason to think that scum wouldn't claim that sort of weak investigative power role in this situation, he hasn't "given us Viktor" and if he's scum he certainly isn't going to claim to have found him before LYLO unless he feels forced into it by other scum lynches (which if he's not Viktor there's only 2 of, and if he is Viktor then it doesn't matter since he'll literally never come up with a positive result), and how she's she's completely excusing that DV had esp as what seems like a fairly strong townread and then supposedly checked him with an ability that would only even return a guilty on 1/4th of the scumteam, which makes it absolutely useless to try to use it to reinforce a town read on someone.
This is mostly to Oversoul and CDB, but it's not really specific to them, I just think they're more likely to do it than most other people in the game.
If you read through aronis's iso and think that it's very likely to be scum motivated, then fine. I don't think he's looks particularly town and although I think it's pretty unlikely I could be wrong about 4nx's claim.
But if you do that and still think that it's a tossup whether or not aronis is scum, vote 4nx. I've already gone over why I think his claim is likely coming from scum, and I think this sort of hesistance to actually lynch a claimed PR that could theoretically do something useful but is very unlikely to, it exists because there's a fear of fucking over the game by taking that risk. And although I think it's a very small risk, yes it is a risk. And I think creating that hesistance and overly cautious behavior is exactly the reason why 4nx claimed to be a Viktor-only investigative PR, and I strongly, strongly feel that letting that making the "safe" choice here based on the possible potential of a claimed role is wrong. It's a little cliche, but there's always risk in a lynch. Choosing to avoid the worst-case scenario instead of voting for who's showing the most actual scum motivations doesn't win games.
also, I just got ninjaed by like 6 posts including oversoul's vote. so. yep.
Titus wrote:What's the harm in waiting? No ate. Facts.
The harm is not lynching scum. If you narrow down the lynchpool to not include weak PRs, then you destroy your ability to actually lynch scum before lategame. Mod Error finished, with GreyICE fakeclaiming and investigative role, and I think that with the logic you're presenting now you absolutely would have kept his claim alive as long as possible instead of lynching him.
In post 6269, Gammagooey wrote:do think that titus is town for claiming in this way for this reason btw
just also think that her conclusions regarding 4nx are wrong.
gamma wrote:just also think that her conclusions regarding 4nx are wrong.
Then say more things and actually engage the gamestate.
I'm getting mad at the fact that voting you was probably the right call.
What in the hellfuck do you think this is
In post 6243, Gammagooey wrote:I don't think I can actually express how much I despise Titus eating up 4nx's claim for "giving us Viktor" when there's no reason to think that scum wouldn't claim that sort of weak investigative power role in this situation, he hasn't "given us Viktor" and if he's scum he certainly isn't going to claim to have found him before LYLO unless he feels forced into it by other scum lynches (which if he's not Viktor there's only 2 of, and if he is Viktor then it doesn't matter since he'll literally never come up with a positive result), and how she's she's completely excusing that DV had esp as what seems like a fairly strong townread and then supposedly checked him with an ability that would only even return a guilty on 1/4th of the scumteam, which makes it absolutely useless to try to use it to reinforce a town read on someone.
This is mostly to Oversoul and CDB, but it's not really specific to them, I just think they're more likely to do it than most other people in the game.
If you read through aronis's iso and think that it's very likely to be scum motivated, then fine. I don't think he's looks particularly town and although I think it's pretty unlikely I could be wrong about 4nx's claim.
But if you do that and still think that it's a tossup whether or not aronis is scum, vote 4nx. I've already gone over why I think his claim is likely coming from scum, and I think this sort of hesistance to actually lynch a claimed PR that could theoretically do something useful but is very unlikely to, it exists because there's a fear of fucking over the game by taking that risk. And although I think it's a very small risk, yes it is a risk. And I think creating that hesistance and overly cautious behavior is exactly the reason why 4nx claimed to be a Viktor-only investigative PR, and I strongly, strongly feel that letting that making the "safe" choice here based on the possible potential of a claimed role is wrong. It's a little cliche, but there's always risk in a lynch. Choosing to avoid the worst-case scenario instead of voting for who's showing the most actual scum motivations doesn't win games.
also, I just got ninjaed by like 6 posts including oversoul's vote. so. yep.
In post 6355, Gammagooey wrote:considering that a self-watcher and a watcher-that-was-locked-and-is-actually-still-a-vt-because-game-mechanics are two very different roles, I don't see why not.
And no, because aronis hasn't said anything about his results yet that I see that he could actually be lying about. What is the thing that he's lying about?
tbf cdb is right about aronis not actually claiming his results in his claim being bad but let's stick with the learning exersize here for a bit.
Watcher is Watcher is watcher. That's a stretch and you know it Gamma.
Let's track his actions for a moment. He naked pushes me and Espy saying we're the best choices. Given that's the only thing he's saying at the start of Major Day 2, logical thing (given his claim) is that he's implying a guilty on us.
Yet, later Espy claims to have traced me. Not a word from Aronis. Not a word. Instead, he continues to tunnel me. If Espy's selections were indeed based on his results (namely watching himself), that implies that Espy and I both visited him. However, unless Espy lied OUT OF THE BLUE. Then, Aronis's vote pattern CANNOT be the result of him self-watching. If Aronis result is Not based on his actions, then what is it based on?
Nothing. He's guilty.
okay okay okay sure fine whatever get ready for LEARNING
If we put all your recent posts together, I can see that you're making the following assumptions.
-That there aren't two very similar roles in the game
-That aronis also wouldn't think that there aren't two very similar roles in the game, and would think TTH was scum for claiming watcher and counterclaim him
-That his vote history was largely based on his role and the results he received from it
-and that him tunnelling on you is also because of role results.
Personally, I think that pretty much all of those assumptions are bad assumptions to make, but that's not the point.
The point is that watching you take some piece of information, make several different assumptions from it while not explicitly stating any of them, and just stating the conclusion you get from all those assumptions is incredibly hard to follow, difficult to talk to you about, and given that it took several posts to even GET to the assumptions you're making that I generally disagree with, very very frustrating for most people to try to process your play or engage you with why they think you're wrong/scum/whatever.
Also as my tangential sidenote for the evening, singer wears her emotions on her sleeve and I think that the tone of her posts towards you is strongly indicative of her actually believing that you're scum and trying to convince other people of it, as well as trying to catch you in lies/contradictions/still whatever.
In post 6355, Gammagooey wrote:considering that a self-watcher and a watcher-that-was-locked-and-is-actually-still-a-vt-because-game-mechanics are two very different roles, I don't see why not.
And no, because aronis hasn't said anything about his results yet that I see that he could actually be lying about. What is the thing that he's lying about?
tbf cdb is right about aronis not actually claiming his results in his claim being bad but let's stick with the learning exersize here for a bit.
You thinking that I would bus 4nx as scum in that situation is right even though I think I would probably come up with a better reason to vote him than "he's not a town read and oversoul and tth are voting him" to get better town cred so thats fine.
whining about me voting Aronis when I tried SO GODAMN HARD to get 4nx lynched first is not fine. It ignores I think around 2 dozen posts of trying to convince people and reach out to specific people (CDB and oversoul) to make the 4nxi3ty lynch happen and that is not something you get to say without it being shat on.
In post 1678, Titus wrote:AD, are you an incredibly smart person who has english as a second language or an aspie? That language is stilted and awkward.
I sometimes assume an affected persona when posting. It's a mechanism that serves me well
In post 1724, Titus wrote:@Cheetory, There's Espy for his fake obtuseness. Bulba because universal scumread, Singer fir their crap. I feel Bulba should not be wagoned but we need to actually start working together. I am not going to take over the game or force my way but I am very frustrated here.
I don't like the above- Titus poking at ActionDan for behaving a little awkwardly but ignoring him very soon after when asked for who to wagon seems bad.
Also think that given Titus's insistence that there were scum in the people being widely-town read that at least one scum is in the pile of useless lurking garbage- personally I still strongly think both vezok and esp are town so I'd think that would be either AD or formerfish.
saying the below while voting aronis and then not showing up again until after the lynch is also bad. I think it's a lot worse than formerfish thinking 4nx's sign changing was more likely coming from town, even though it is at least possible that scum wanted to go all-in on keeping 4nx alive until his Spite ability could potentially win the game for them.
In post 6001, ActionDan wrote:He's effectively L with mastin and aronis in the wings. Id like to read over stuff before day end so if we could wait a tad that'd be great. Immediate reaction to claim is that it's not that bad tho unsure why Victor ability wasn't listed as transcendent
Also mentioned this earlier but Titus's quick hop on and off of ActionDan's wagon Major D1 was also pretty sketchy, and Titus started the TSO wagon immediately afterwards when TSO was voting AD.
though tbf the first TSO vote from Titus did come after mastin and ffery talking about it for a bit too.
This game is not your game UT. These are not your mechanics and having a role that could be caught just by using those mechanics competently did not make sense to additionally include another role with the sole purpose of catching it.
opinions on the game would be a lotttttt better than a claim, but if you feel like claiming will be helpful in addition to having opinions then go for it.
If I were to base things just on that post I'd pretty much just want to kill all of AD+formerfish+mastin+espy and that seems like killing all of them would just win the game.
This seems close enough to his lurking spectacular as scum reckoning 3 that I'll join on eventually too
Cheet do you have anything you really want to talk about beforehand? If it's specific questions that's fine but I don't actually think general unaimed content is going to be that helpful with fish not here and 270 other pages to go through.
Also I'm invoking my power as Guy Who Has Opinions to say that the default response to I'm catching up over the next X days should be "Post opinions or fuck off".
Opinions on just recent stuff or just isos or whatever is fine, as long as you don't assume that it's the one truth to rule this game that everyone else should follow, and preventing the game from becoming an apathy-filled wasteland of replacements who never bother catching up is something I'd like to avoid.
wgeurts just do your best to catch up over night and have opinions tomorrow
I actually don't think telling you about roleclaims and conf. town and etc. will be helpful atm, just read shit and say what you think about it all tomorrow.
do we not get a boon vote?