Newbie 436 - Killings in Kerplunkville - GAME OVER

[Quinnster]

I've always been an Immanuel Kant fan.

Vote: Cicero

[Quinnster]

Yeah, it is a bit early to put Andycyca on the chopping block, is it not? You've aroused my suspicions already, young man.

[Quinnster]

By the way, I will be away tomorrow.

[Quinnster]

Well, most games that I have read start with random voting, which my vote for you initially was. That's how most games start, however, most people are careful not to lynch someone prematurely.
You said "we are going to end up lynching somebody so why not let it be andy and move quickly along". The simple answer for that is: there's no case against him yet. I don't know about you, but I'm not going to "randomly" lynch someone just for something to do, I'd rather think this through like a good townie.
Seems a little hypocritical that you'd be against me "randomly" voting for you at the start, and then trying to lynch him for no valid reason.

Also, I love Immanuel Kant. I'm reading Nietzche now, nowhere near as good.

[Quinnster]

Oh, and since I can't edit, I would rather have 2 votes against me and 2 against Andycyca than three against him, because then we're both 2 away from a lynch.

[Quinnster]

Ah, but if I was scum, I would likely feign outrage because it's common practice to wait a while before lynching. Also, scum would be outraged if Andycyca was scum and we were about to lynch him this fast. I'm not scum, all I'm saying is, keep your senses open for everyone. Scum lie, they're not going to outright act like scum.

[Quinnster]

Ah, my field.

Cicero was a political philosopher, much like Kant. However, in choosing your name, you may have done a slip-up. Cicero was widely known for being an orator, and believed that people will believe anything if you tell them the right way. Hopefully, this is not your sentiment as well, as we are searching for the truth.

Reasons why Kant was awesome:

1. Combined rationalism and empiricism into one smarter mode of thought.
2. Organized that which we find pleasurable into three categories (agreeable, good, beautiful)
3. Fought for women's rights.
4. Fought for the right to use rational thought in public.

But most of all:
5. Said that it is not the consequences of the action that determine how right you were in doing it, but rather the intentions beforehand.

Now, unfortunately, in a game like this, it is reversed, the results of the action do matter (you win, John Stuart Mill), so I shall take an apathetic stance to Kant so as not to lump all his theories into one opinion. Enough philosophy, let's get to more mafia.

Mr. Flay, you seemed pretty angry back there. I've seen you moderate games before, and you seem like a really nice guy. Care to explain your tone?

[Quinnster]

By the way, you can call me:

Dallywag The Hairapist

[Quinnster]

I still have not voted for you, Cicero. You know why that is? I still dont think you've shown any scumtells that I trust. Any scumtells you've shown so far could just as easily be the result of being new to the game.

Personally, I'd like to take a look at Pwayne, who at first seemingly ignored that Cicero had done anything wrong, then tried to draw attention away from cicero by voting me. He barely even mentions Ciceros mistake til post 37. Nothing overly scummy, but something worth noting in my opinion.

It would seem that he reacts to it in post 14.

[Quinnster]

Now that we're starting to get evidence,

unvote

, even though cicero is still the most suspicious.

I was thinking about it last night, either he's scum, or he's a townie that doesn't care at all whether he wins or loses. Right now, I'm leaning toward the latter.

[Quinnster]

True enough, I guess he's just a little impatient.

[Quinnster]

Exactly, right now I am impartial to pwayne, but I wanted to make sure that Elias wasn't building a case on faulty information.

[Quinnster]

I've reread Cicero's posts, and something stuck me as bizarre. We know he has a very paranoid way of playing, but he seems to suspect everyone at some point...except Rime Ice Fury.

1. Me

Defending myself:

Now - Quinnster voted for me already for no reason (except not liking Immanuel Kant or something).

...

Seemed like it was either I do that or make
3 way tie by voting quinless - and isnt this much more fun?

2. Andycyca

I'm suspicious of Andycyca

My theory is that Andycyca and Pwayne were off colluding. Dirty mafia scum bastiches.

3. pwayne66
quote="cicero (17)"]My theory is that Andycyca and Pwayne were off colluding. Dirty mafia scum bastiches.[/quote]

4. Mr. Flay

I'm suspicious of Andycyca and Mr. Flay

So unless the placement of scum and town is 100% random then there is an improvement in our chance of catching a scum early on by only voting out an experienced player. Mister Flay and Elias, in other words. What's the team placement practice?

While you're looking at me for that though, pay attention to the defensive Mr. Flay

5. elias_the_thief

So unless the placement of scum and town is 100% random then there is an improvement in our chance of catching a scum early on by only voting out an experienced player. Mister Flay and Elias, in other words. What's the team placement practice?

Anyway, now that you've spread the falsehood that I feigned knowing nothing should I suspect YOUUUUU? I think maybe I should.

is Elias scum because he's suspicious of me?

Granted, some of these are jokes, but even jokes plant the seed of doubt in the minds of townies.

[Quinnster]

Cicero, I'd like to see what you think of each of us.

[Quinnster]

Fantastic post, for the most part, Cicero. It would be unfair of us to judge Rime based solely on his absence and apparent apathy, but I do feel myself suspecting him a little more. Don't think you're off my list, Cicero, but you're doing a much better job.

[Quinnster]

Yeah, I see some disagreeing with me about cicero's motives, elias, but on the whole, I don't see the same degree of "backing up".

[Quinnster]

My Feelings, An Essay By Dallywag Quinnerius Hairapist.

Cicero – Still bothers me when I look back on his old posts, especially the parts where he so adamantly shouted that he was a townie. I’m not sure if that was necessary, I mean, none of us expected him to shout “Guess what? I’m scum!”. It’s sort of implied that he’s either townie, or wants us to believe he is. That’s the nature of the game. Also, I see some discrepancy in his earliest posts, where he teeter-totters between “I’m new, and I’m making newbie mistakes,” and “I’ve read quite a few games, and learned that bla bla bla”. That said, I’m starting to think more and more that maybe he did have a skewed view of how the game worked at first, and if he did, he’s certainly learning now. I’m starting to think that the only reason he didn’t suspect Rime was Rime’s inactivity near the start of the game. If this was a 2nd-grade spelling bee, he’d get most improved.

Mr. Flay – Something has irked me about him all game. Firstly, it was sort of scummy for him to put Cicero at lynch-1 when there was barely over one page of posts he had to read to realize he was doing it. I’d like to imagine him in a blind rage after seeing Cicero put Andycyca at lynch-1, and typing his post without reading the first page, but that doesn’t add up for someone with so much experience in the game. I mean, he shouldn’t need his Excel notes to go over one page, right? Of course, he did have a reason to be outraged, because his explanation of the consequences of a townlynch on day 1 was very scary indeed. The last thing that sort of bothered me was his vote on Rime Ice Fury, which he admits was based on a “very weak tell”. His post made elias or Andy seem more suspicious, but he votes for Rime based on the silly names.

Rime Ice Fury – Starts with a random vote on Flay because “seven is the magic number”, which seemed like a little weak of an argument, even for a random vote, then goes on to propose silly names. Now, this is Rime’s first game, so it’s not like he would be bored of the usual names because of older games, but maybe he just wanted to have a little fun and change his name. No problem with that. Lets Flay off the hook for putting Cicero at lynch-1. I will expand on this instance later in this post.

Andycyca – I haven’t seem him say or do anything overly scummy yet, he seems to be trying to explore the logistics of the game and figure out strategies to find scum. Even when Cicero puts him at lynch-1, he’s willing to believe that it’s just Cicero’s newbieness shining though. I believe he is a townie, but his naivety and trust may become a burden later in the game.

Pwayne66 – Gets very irritated and suspicious of Cicero, which is understandable. Also suspicious of Mr. Flay, which I am too. Other than that, posts a series of coherent posts outlining what’s going on in the game and his personal theories on scumtells. I believe he is a townie.

Elias_the_thief – Accuses and picks apart Cicero, but gives him a chance to explain himself before voting him. Very focused on getting information, instead of lynching based on a couple posts. This is a very townie thing to do, in my opinion, as scum would find a particularly scummy post (of which Cicero has many) and use that as an excuse to place a vote that the others would follow. Consistently picks out the weakest points of everyone’s arguments, thus helping them reach better conclusions.

So, this would leave Cicero, Rime Ice Fury, and Mr. Flay on my suspicious list. Of the three, the two most likely to be in league are Rime and Flay. Let me explain. Firstly, I would imagine that a disproportionate amount of the time, one scum will vote for the other in the random vote. Why not? Nobody will think anything of it, and as a last resort later, they can always say “why would you think I’m with them? Would I have voted them in random if they were my scumbuddy?” Then, when Flay puts Cicero at lynch-1, Rime criticizes it, but never votes for him. It would seem scummy to ignore it, but Rime would definitely not want to start a bandwagon against Flay if they were together. Lastly, we come to Flay’s voting on Rime. He admits that it’s based on a weak tell, and makes some others look more suspicious. I think this is distancing. If people were to actually start voting Rime, I think Flay would have to unvote, because he figures nobody will actually start a vote on Rime based solely on his gut feelings.

I’m calling you on it.

Vote: Rime Ice Fury

[Quinnster]

Note: I wrote that before Flay's unvote, so now I have no choice but to

Unvote

Vote: Mr. Flay

[Quinnster]

elias and Cicero, I think it's time you took your random votes off.

[Quinnster]

Why's that?

It's far enough in the game that I think it's time we vote for who we believe. However, if you are so inclined to believe that I am scum, you're welcome to leave it.

[Quinnster]

I'm not concerned, per se, but it kind of nags at me every time I see it, haha.

[Quinnster]

Andycyca, my only thought was that you seem quite trusting, and that's not going to help you when it comes down to organizing or participating in a deciding lynch. Also, the Cicero/lawyer thing was indeed a stupid theory, but I'm glad you can admit it.

[Quinnster]

Agreed, metagaming shouldn't be used.

[Quinnster]

My suspicions remain exactly where they were a while ago, because I don't think too much new information has been revealed.

1. Mr Flay - I can see that he's trying to lay low to compensate for his mistakes earlier in the game, but I still can't ignore them.

2. Rime Ice Fury - Again, I still haven't gotten over his earlier mistakes.

3. Cicero - Although he has gotten a lot better at the game, but I still see him grasping for absolutely any comment that might remove him from suspicion.

[Quinnster]

This is true, but I don't get the same vibe from Andy as others seem to, I know he's said some suspicious things, but he just doesn't seem scummy to me. You, on the other hand, have said suspicious things and have an air of scumminess. I have to reread this whole thread and find new evidence, I think.

[Quinnster]

I'll reread this and post tomorrow, for sure. I see a lot of great info coming out now, and I'm almost glad someone has finally suspected me, I was beginning to feel left out!

[Quinnster]

First, a response to Rime.

It feels like the words "townie" and "scum" are forced in this paragraph.

I'm sorry, were you looking for synonyms? I said what I meant, which is that I thought it was gracious and pro-townie of elias to give cicero some room to explain himself before slapping a vote down.

Seems to be saying "I don't know, but he's town!"

It's a safe way to play the game to firstly imagine everyone as town, then look for faults, not the other way around. He simply didn't see anything scummy.

#1 -- Quinnster is just finding something to inflate his case against me and Flay.
#2 -- Quinnster saw mafia doing it, so he thought he could fit it in as a scumtell.

Evidently, it was a weak argument on my part, but it seemed to me that the first instinct in the random voting phase for a first-time scum would be to vote the other one. Sort of a "because I can" clause.

Where did he see mafia doing it? This game. Elias' random vote (and his single vote for most of the game) was for Quinnster. Now, this alone might not be enough evidence. However, take a look at the rest of page 5, specifically after the vote count. Quinnster tells both cicero and Elias to take off their random votes. Cicero's vote wasn't random, of course, but cicero takes the vote off anyway. I find it odd that Quinn would tell cicero to take off a random vote when the vote wasn't random. Even more troubling is his concern over over Elias' random vote. They spend some posts discussing this. Curious as to why a random vote would bother Quinnster so much. I see it as Quinn telling Elias "Hey, stop voting for me!" in a slightly less direct manner. Hence why he also had to mention someone else in that post; he couldn't directly and singularly link himself to Elias.

I posted that because I thought it was far enough into the game that random votes should be removed for fear of being misinterpreted as real votes. I genuinely thought cicero's was still his random, as I hadn't read as thoroughly as I should have. My error.

-- Set A --
048 (E), 049 (E), 050 (Q), 051 (E)
^ Those were the posts where Quinn quickly corrected Elias. Flay made note of that, too (068).

It is a townie's duty to make sure that all information used to build a case is true. I didn't want to see faulty information get used.

-- Set B --
059 (Q), 060 (E), 061 (Q)

^ Talking about cicero and whether or not he's a townie that cares for the town.

Looking back, I stick with my original post. He seemed, at the point, to be saying "I don't care, just lynch someone. Lynch me if you want, go for it."

-- Set D --
084 (Q), 085 (E)

^ Quinn takes note of cicero making accusations against everyone but me. Elias responds and takes note that cicero's accusations aren't very detailed.

He disagreed with me, what a sumtell!

-- Set E --
092 (E), 093 (Q)

^ Elias questions cicero about how cicero finds Elias and I acting basically the same way. Quinn repeats Elias' question to cicero.

I think at that point, I was just itching to post something.

-- Set G --
124 (C), 125 (R), 126 (K-Votecount), 127 (E), 128 (Q)

^ Cicero uses metagaming in his suspicions against Pwayne. I and Elias argue against metagaming, with Quinn popping up to say "I agree!".

Well, I do!

4) The distancing factor. This is more a case against Elias specifically. I was the top or second suspect on four people's lists: Flay, Quinn, cicero, and Andy. I end up as a possible scum buddy with Flay, Andy, or cicero. Elias is the very last to put his suspicions up, and he puts out a case for a pairing of cicero and me.

Here's the problem: Elias suspects cicero more than myself.

In fact, he thinks me being lynched and turning town would not clear cicero, but he also says that cicero being lynched and turning town would clear me. Why would one case work, and not the other? More importantly, this does nothing to counter any other suspicions of me. If cicero is lynched and is town, why wouldn't I still be suspect? There is still the suspected connection between me and Flay, me and Andy, or just the fact that I am basically the top suspect, yet he hasn't countered any of these other theories. He merely mentions that he thinks his cicero/Rime connection is better than the Flay/Rime connection.

That's a problem? What he was saying is that cicero is so insanely suspicious, that if he were to be lynched, anyone is still a suspect. The way he interacts with you, though, if you were to be lynched, there's a strong connection. Not saying I agree, just explaining.

[Quinnster]

Also, there's this. Isn't this just another Flay error? Poor guy, his head's not in the game, a No Lynch vote would lead to 4/2, not 3/2. Not that I'd advocating it, just something else I noticed.

We get one mislynch in a game of this size/design before we HAVE to get every lynch right after that (also called LYLO or Lynch-or-Lose here). It's just a feature of how the Newbie Games are designed;

No Lynch accomplishes the same thing, because if we go to N1 with six players alive, and one is killed that night by the scum (Doc protections are statistically unlikely to work), then we're at 5 left, 3-2 town/scum, and then any mislynch puts us at 2-2 that night, an automatic town loss. The ONLY way No Lynch works is if you are certain you have a Doctor and have at least a reasonable chance of getting a successful night protection, which doesn't often happen

[Quinnster]

Doesn't matter a lot, since RIF has just said he's dropping his case (why? because "Isn't anything but a few bits and suspicions"? You seemed pretty sure before) He doubted Elias and Flay in 151, Flay being in 2nd for looking for a "consensus", then Quinn appears out of nowhere in his theories.

Basically, it was due to a reread and reanalysis of my theory, especially realizing that on Day 1, I have no hard evidence to go on. As you (and others) said, it was weak, but I thought it was strong, as I thought what I saw as associations were strong evidence. But then, there could be other things that explain those posts, and that's why I couldn't continue my case.

If it makes you feel better, I'm starting to feel the same about my Rime/Flay theory. In both, there were a few good points, but not enough substance to validate the claim.

[Quinnster]

Cicero, if you have no interest in the town winning, then you're a burden, not an advantage.

Vote: Cicero

[Quinnster]

I apologize, slipped my mind. Next time I will.

[Quinnster]

Agreed with pwayne, this could be Flay/Cicero distancing, then realizing at the last minute how close he is to a lynch, or it could be Flay actually expressing doubts about lynching Cicero. Could you please explain why you don't suspect Cicero anymore? I understand some of your reasons, but it seems like, as someone else said, "a golden pass of newbieness". I think he has done and said a lot of scummy things, and if we can't lynch him based on scumminess, what else do we have to go on?

[Quinnster]

I don't really see much in any of those posts, Flay.

[Quinnster]

Notice that I presented both as a possibility. Either he's realizing how close you are, or he actually thinks you're town.

[Quinnster]

Flay, those posts still don't present a good argument to me, they're just conversational snippets. What I'm asking is: why do you have such reservations with lynching cicero? I'm this close to switching my vote back to you, where it was before.

[Quinnster]

What I'm aiming for is for you to go past "well, I'm just not sure" into "well, I'm just not sure BECAUSE...". You seem to be defending cicero based on gut feelings and how quickly he's learning the game. We've all seen him do scummy things, and his last large post is riddled with some of the most suspicious things I've ever read in a game. What I want to know is, do you think he's a townie based on observation, or gut instinct?

[Quinnster]

Well this puts me in a predicament, I was suspecting Flay/Cicero or Flay/Rime. Huh. Of course, nobody vote until you're absolutely sure.

[Quinnster]

These deaths have really overwhelmed me in the sense that I was positive that one of them would be scum. Now, Flay is still on my radar screen because he's made so many scummy plays, but I was really pairing him up with on of those other two, and besides them, I don't really see him co-operating with anyone in any fashion.

Andycyca
pwayne66
elias_the_thief

One or more of you are scum. And you know what? You're doing a damn good job at it. I mean, for all I know, Flay could be as town as Lassie, but I'm forced at this point to keep him on my radar for lack of a better suspect.

[Quinnster]

I'm still on Flay, to be perfectly honest. He's dodging questions, twisting words, and generally not being very helpful. I appreciate that you're trying to gain my confidence, but I'm afraid that my suspicion stays on you. As for the rest of you, I'm currently rereading, and expect a nice big post sometime soon.

[Quinnster]

I have been put in the tough position of being the swing vote. I'm set in my mind that it's either Flay/Andy or Pwayne/Elias. Of those two pairings, I'd say that Flay/Andy are more likely, mainly because of Flay's insanely scummy play earlier on in the game. What gets stuck in my mind, though, is "wouldn't he pay more attention to the game if he was scum"? This, I know, is WIFOM, but I can't help thinking it. All of us were critical of cicero early in the game, because he wasn't playing well. So, none of that really matters now. If cicero had not been playing scummy, of course huge accusers would be on the platform for me, but he was. We now come to Rime, whom I admit that I suspected quite highly. Flay repeatedly said that he suspected him, but then again, so did I. Rime's play was subversive, and sneaky. Now, I have to decide (since Flay/Cicero and Flay/Rime are impossible) if Flay is even a possible suspect for me. If I decide he's not, it's pwayne or Elias.

[Quinnster]

pwayne, that's a very convincing argument against Flay and Andy. However, I want you to know that I'm not swinging toward them just because I'm predisposed to suspecting Flay. I will take all that into account, though.

[Quinnster]

As much as I have tried to find a ground to vote Pwayne or Elias on, I cannot find it. What I can find is a lot of reasons to vote Flay and Andy. The conversation generated here has not been sufficient, in my mind, to warrant a vote, though. Flay, your vote just now was really scummy. As elias pointed out, a lack of hammer does not prove you innocent or guilty. You've been making too many mistakes in this game. I don't believe them anymore. I know you're playing the pity card ("oh man, I'm so bad this game"), but I refuse to let you try to influence the town through faulty logic any longer. Unless I see a coherent post explaining the answers to these questions, my vote goes on you.

1. What were your legitimate doubts about Cicero? Did you just want him alive in day two because he was the only person scummier than you?
2. How do you justify making so many logical errors this game when you've been a player for so long?

[Quinnster]

So wait...EVERYONE suspects Flay?

[Quinnster]

What I meant by my post was: if the mafia can win today by making us lynch a townie, and everyone suspects Flay, does that not put Flay in a townie position? If he was scum, SOMEONE would be trying to divert attention. Not saying he's off my list, it's just an observation I had.

[Quinnster]

Also, I just went and reread RIF's accusation of elias and I, and realized that the whole thing was built on either my poorly thought-out, inflated case against him and Flay, or the fact that our posts are often close to each other. Granted, it was one of the more methodical, reasoned cases so far this game, but it's still built completely on false evidence.

[Quinnster]

I'm not voting for sure until someone slips up and protects Flay. However, pwayne, I realize that this is a slow game, but don't rush it, you seem hasty.

[Quinnster]

Great game all.