Mini 1732 - Super Smash Bros. Project M(afia) - D7!

[GuiltyLion]

Confirm

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alright guys you how this has to go

no items. fox only. final destination.

VOTE: Xtoxm

Hi Xtoxm!

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Also the Nana account was created a day after vonflare in-ed in the queue to mod this game, and this is the only topic it has posted in. Is it supposed to be like a CPU or something?

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Sorry Nana, I'll avoid that mistake in the future!

Do you know about your buddy Popo? http://forum.mafiascum.net/memberlist.p ... le&u=26417

(found him by incrementing the userid in the URL by 1)

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Ahh, maybe someone's Popo and they can post from both their account and Nana's? Either through having both accounts, or PMing the mod so they can't just confirm themselves.

yeah, that makes sense. Possible double voter?

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chances are you're the only VT,

Don't like this - only like 4 or 5 out of 14 players have posted. How can you assume there's only one VT?

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I have a ganondorf-read on Xtoxm, do not let him get that triforce

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Didn't play OOT

VOTE: Metal Sonic

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Lickety, how is 2 votes a BW when it takes 8 to lynch and a solid number of players haven't even posted yet?

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This is a pretty vapid question.

Do you agree with him that one of {smiffle, Tails, Metal Sonic} is scum? Should he be at all worried about their votes on him at this point?

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I actually don't like pretty much any of Sonic's posting so far.

Yet you're voting me instead of him?

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That was RVS, silly.

a) don't answer a question I asked to Xtoxm
b) Xtoxm pretty clearly voted me in 109 because of my question in 101

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Lickety 204 - takes Ascetic role claim at its word

Lickety 206 - accuses Davsto for accepting Ascetic role claim at its word

This is another glaring contradiction from Lickety in addition to the ones you guys have caught. I'm inclined to believe he's intentionally planting them at this point. Definitely agree that he should be vigged/%'d, and I have a townread on All Alone for approaching it with that mindset.

Tails and Metal Sonic votes on him are bad but I don't think both are scum.

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based on the fact that MMs repping an ascetic role as town [obviously], why doesn't Dav have anything to say at all about the alignment of ascetic in this game?

Did I misread this? It looks to me like you're saying MM is Ascetic and attempting to use it for towncred.

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EBWOP - and that MM* is using it for towncred, not that LQ is.

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Ah okay, so you're saying he's claiming Ascetic not that you actually believe Ascetic, gotcha. I should really wait to post in the morning until after I've had coffee.

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In post 254, MarioManiac4 wrote:
i don't really like all the easy townreads on all alone.


qft

@Mario, didn't you just give all alone a "probably town" read in 242?

@Xtoxm when are you gonna answer 119?

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Well you're just gonna have to wait for me to make my reads then. I don't tend to throw around a bunch of meaningless reads that I'm likely to change early on D1, especially when we have players that haven't even posted yet.

I don't get why you wouldn't help me read you, but whatever.

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I want a single read by the time the (real) day is over. I'ts 5pm now.

I already said All Alone is a townread. Liking Mario as town too. If you want weak scumleans, I'm thinking at least one of Davsto, Metal Sonic, or Tails is scum, but I'm not gonna advocate to lynch any of them yet. I prefer watching and evaluating early wagons rather than being on them.

IMO it's a lot easier for scum to dress up a bunch of bs on someone and "sort" them as town or scum. I get that fence-sitting and not expressing oneself makes you less transparent, but I refuse to give strong reads when I don't fully believe in them. People will keep scumreading me for it in the early game, I'll use that assess whether their intentions are honest or not, and I'll prove them wrong as the game goes on.

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Currently, I like W-nl as town, but I'm watching their activity.

For example, how is this a useful comment? W-nl should not be anything but null right now for everyone in the game.

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Where did you get the "one of X,Y,Z is scum"?

You have a big ISO but none of it reads particularly town to me.

Tails is tunneling too hard on Lickety, who looks to me more like a jester or reckless town than scum. His reasons for suspecting LQ are overall pretty weak, based off of easy inconsistencies that I think competent scum would take better care to avoid.

I agree with All Alone's point against Davsto, but I've seen him get mislynched for similar reasons before in other games. Taking a bit of a 'wait and see' on him, but he's in my suspect pool.

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Does it mean that if one of us flips scum the other two or conftown??

Cause it looks like you're trying to stir trouble


And that's scummy

This is a huge reach. They are all completely independent of eachother. The only real associative I have right now is that my Tails read is a bit dependent on LQ's alignment, if I were to somehow know that LQ were scum then I'd say Tails is almost conftown instead.

I'm answering questions asked of me, how does that read to you like I'm stirring trouble? You asked me to explain why I had those three names, I explained, and now you spin that as me stirring up trouble? The reason I said "at least one of" is because I'm not so bold as to assume I nailed the scumteam 10 pages into the game.

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I have a completed game with ASP where he lurked and was mislynched for it on D1, Micro 533.

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That's the fault of your own wording. "At least one of" suggested that you feel that all 3 scumreads were dependent .

No it doesn't. If anything, it suggests exactly the opposite. If they were all dependent, it would mean either all or none of them are scum. Or if I had said "only one of" or "exactly one of" instead, then you would be right.

If I say "at least one of my three siblings is male", and then I introduce you to my brother, does that mean anything about my other two siblings?

Explain how "at least one" implied to you that I think the three are in any way related, otherwise I'm forced to assume you are intentionally trying to misrep me.

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Actually, I guess if two were to flip town, then I would be forced to assume the third is scum? But that'd be a really obtuse way to interpret what I said at the time.

Ah ninja'd. Point taken

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Whatever, I wasn't trying to seriously advocate that we flip all three,
I was just trying to convey the level of confidence I have in my current view of the gamestate. they are related in that I would like to think I am not so bad at this game that I am completely wrong in all three of my three current scumleans.

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GL, did you hear from Asp after the game?

He posted a bit in the dead thread, but that's it. How would that tell you anything about his alignment this game? And why are you focusing so much on sorting ASP at the moment? He'll post when he posts.

I'm townreading tails though

Like I said, I'd be more inclined to townread Tails if I was convinced that LQ were scum, so that makes sense to me.

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Lion's also one of the people pushing both "everyone on the Lickity wagon is scummy" and "Alive shouldn't be townread".

Nope, I've consistently said All Alone is a townread. Do not spread misinformation about me

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Okay, my thing with Lickety is do you really feel like scum is gonna be saying trolly stuff like 81, 106, 190, 239, etc? I get that 'so reckless that scum wouldn't do it' isn't a compelling argument for towniness, but I don't think there's much there that's significantly scum-indicative either. I thought 219 by Tails was a particularly weak case because point 1 seems to imply he's scum for limiting his scumreads and then point 3 implies he is scum for casting suspicion on a wide number of people.

Plus it's not like the things LQ is actually doing have anti-town motivation to them, and there's several posts in his ISO where he makes insightful pushes or asks useful directed questions.

Regardless, he's chosen to introduce the WIFOM of "is this guy actually town or not?" at a few points in his play, which is why I wouldn't shed a tear if he got vigged. Eventually town will have to deal with him, but I don't think he's gonna make a useful D1 lynch and I think pushing him is basically the easiest thing one can do at the moment.

I like these recent posts from Metal Sonic.

VOTE: Davsto

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When you eliminate all the setup and role related stuff from his iso, what are you left with?

137 provides his scumreads, 145 justified townread on MM, 204 and 206 push on Davsto, 229 looks like a town post that serves as both a defense of self and a small push on W-nl, 241 and 271 asking different players for reads, 343 asking another player for more reads.

None of it is like 'oh shit this guy is definitely town' but he's advancing the game. His vote on Mario as it stands is horrible though, given that he said earlier that Mario is a townread.

But why Dav? I think his easy response to my triforce request was very town in nature. If he was scum, there was no way he could have known that was safe to claim.

Eh, I missed that triforce bit from Davsto the first time around. I remember his vote being poor but I just reread his ISO and overall it's not as bad as I thought it was gonna be. But he still hasn't done much scumhunting and I want to see what happens to the gamestate when I put my vote here.

And I agree his response to your triforce request is easy, but I don't think it's serious. If he were scum and he started getting in trouble for it, I think he could easily spin it like he was just joking around.

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How can you see that as town

I don't see it as town, I just don't see it as particularly scum either. If we all played like you and Tails right now, we'd run up a wagon on 'obvscum' LQ, then if/when he flipped town (which is likely given sheer probability), we'd be left with virtually no significant information.

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also asking players for reads is by definition advancing the game. Every time a player has to post reads (or explicitly choose not to give them), that's a benchmark that everyone can hold them accountable to later.

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That's basic. Any player can do that. It's 0 effort needed by the asker. More credit should be given to the answerer.

I'm not giving LQ any credit, I'm just not taking away points from him either.

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399 reads to me like = "A) he's not scumhunting, therefore B) he's scum". I agree on A but I don't think B follows from A. It's not convincing to me, especially this early in the game, sorry.

I'm not gonna be his lawyer so I'm dropping it after this, he can defend himself from here on out. But seriously, look at his completed games. The dude gets ML'd on D1 all the time. I wouldn't be so sure that you've 'caught scum' when many before you have thought the exact same only to find instead that they 'caught' a highly mislynchable player.

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if he's lynchable at D1 as town but also as scum then your point is very moot

Just so we're clear, what exactly do you think my point is in drawing this discussion out?

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Reasoning for my davsto vote is simply that he's voting for a townread and that another townread is voting him.

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*series of text completely unrelated to me*
*vote on me*
???

[snip]

Oh lovely, the best kind of read. Like seriously, this is just yeh.

I'm becoming rather fond of naked votes, they make people react in informative ways. Do you think people will seriously lynch you just because of my vote?

because his defense on LQ looks white knight-y, his vote on me is chainsaw-y and weak.

You're better than this, this isn't giving me a reason to suddenly think you're town. You said earlier you don't really have a strong candidate... did you consider that I am in the same boat?

I see that you requested to know which games that I remember seeing you mislynched, I'm at work so I can't exactly meta dive but I promise I'll pull up the games I was thinking of later tonight or tomorrow. I remember a newbie game with pirate mollie and vedith? and a micro, possibly that one where everyone gets multiple votes.

Anyway I've converted and it's entirely GL the obvious scumbuddy's fault.
"I'm going to stop defending X now but I don't want to lynch him."

you think I'm an obvious scumbuddy, so you vote LQ instead? That's a horrendous reason to vote someone pre-flips. What about LQ do you explicitly find scummy?

You all need to chill on how much you think I'm "defending" LQ. I've never indicated that I'm townreading him and I said he should be vigged or handled later. But here's what I'm seeing, a guy who's playing confusing and not scumhunting in the way that Tails expects, and now suddenly everyone is expected to immediately turbolynch him? There's a lot of benefit in making people justify their votes and taking the time to evaluate why each person is on his wagon. That's not WKing, that's doing my homework, as any good townie should do.

For example, Mario's reasoning is terrible. As if I would play this way if the scumteam included myself and LQ. Give me a break.

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the latter I was scum

ah you are right, maybe it was another micro? I'll check when I get home. I actually think you calling me out on my lazy point about meta is a good push, it was a pretty weak reason for me to hedge on a scumlean.

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So let me make this clear;
You think lickety is town.
So you were like "I don't wanna be his lawyer but you should stop."
You're holding back on defending your buddy.

Can you show me where I said that I think Lickety is town? Quote the post, please. And while you're at it, read my ISO and make a serious effort to figure out why I'm doing what I'm doing.

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An experiment? "Let's all vote Dav and see what happens, hur dur." This isn't AP chemistry. Plus now you just sound really uncertain of your vote. The vote that you appeared to put down because you wanted to see what would happen if you put a naked vote in the thread on page 17. What did you want to see happen? What were you even expecting?

Yeah, it is an experiment. I didn't ask for anyone else to vote him. I am uncertain of my vote, and I will happily admit this!

I wanted to see Davsto's reaction ("your vote on me is bad, therefore I will vote you"), as well as the reactions of others. You've correctly identified it was a naked and weak vote. Does that make me scum?

That last part is also untrue, as practically everyone in the game has already made substantial interactions with Lickety, or they've given an actual read on him, except for maybe you.

Show me where Klick, ASP, Wanderer, Gendaberry have made "substantial interactions" with Lickety. Theoretically that can be an entire scumteam just lurking this out on the sides while town rips itself up in the process. And then you have some players like Xtomx who just throw out a townread on LQ but that's it, as well as players like MM who claimed LQ was a townread but then decided to vote him for no logical reason a few pages later.

I'm just annoyed that somehow LQ, who is a player who has proven himself consistently hard to read correctly and has been mislynched on D1 many times, is becoming the main focus of the game so far. I'd rather poke around and figure how to read the other players before we go driving up a lynch on one that I haven't sorted yet.

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IMO it's a lot easier for scum to dress up a bunch of bs on someone and "sort" them as town or scum. I get that fence-sitting and not expressing oneself makes you less transparent, but I refuse to give strong reads when I don't fully believe in them. People will keep scumreading me for it in the early game, I'll use that assess whether their intentions are honest or not, and I'll prove them wrong as the game goes on.

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really? on d1? why would you even hunt with associatives today

you should ask that of half the players in this game so far

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You still haven't answered my question. What was the point of your vote on Davsto? Did you really just want him to OMGUS vote you? Why would you go headfirst into a situation like that just to see what happens? Does his vote on you affirm your scum read on him? It's not making sense to me.
There's ulterior motive written all over that vote, and it rubs me in the worst way possible.

The point was nothing more than to see what happens. I believe we simply play differently - I try to maintain a holistic view of the gamestate, form some solid townreads and then lynch outside of that on D1. You seem like the type to pick out one or two scum suspects and then just shout at everyone for their lynch until you either get the lynch or you don't.

If suddenly everyone just started jumping on a Davsto wagon in a way that I wasn't comfortable with, I'd unvote. I know there's no way to prove that at the moment, but it's generally how I play.

I didn't want him to OMGUS vote me, and it is a slight point towards affirming my scumlean on him. Seems he's taking the easy way out, and I don't see evidence of him seriously attempting to assess the reasons for my play.

You grilling me about it points towards you being town, but I already had a townread on you so that didn't get me much.

Once some of them get replaced, (which will probably happen soon), and they've started to actually play, then will you have a clear read on lickety?

Probably! I can tell you he's outside my townbloc right now, that's for sure.

The thing is, you first don't want to lynch LQ because he might be jester, then you want to sort him, you also have that defensive post where you say you haven't seen him do anything scummy so then I wonder why you'd want him vigged in the first place?

He's not a townread, therefore I don't really care what happens to him. I don't know why everyone assumes I'm defending him because I want to defend him when I'm defending him because I want to read the people on his wagon, and I've implicitly and explicitly said as much.

The problem with this post and the fact that GL didn't make a stance on me is that they weren't even going to provide reads until I asked them for one read and then they preceded to give a read on almost half the game. I feel GL is prolly avoiding pressure but don't know if this means he is Town or Scum here.

I'm a bit slow to offer a lot of meaningful thoughts until I have them, but I have tried to answer every question/argument thrown my way. If you feel I'm avoiding pressure, feel free to give me more of it.

Currently do not want to lynch {All Alone, smiffle, Metal Sonic, probablyyyy Xtomx} today. MM is mostly in that bloc too although his posts today have been ridiculous.

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That's my point exactly. You've responded to everything, even minor stuff. I see that as not wanting pressure on you.

Walk me through this one. I'm responding to things people ask me or things people say about me, therefore that's scummy? Would I look more town to you if I just lurked it out?

Your strategy is really time-based and dependent on the collective town. I can't wait for everyone else, so I make my own decisions and roll with them.

You're promising a whole lot. I hope you deliver.

To follow this up: now that you have your vote on Dav, now what? Are you going to push him?

Yeah, it is time-based, but it's also a slow game . My play stems from trying not to drive mislynches if I can avoid it. I've tried playing like you before, but I've found I wind up confbiasing and tunneling.

Dav hasn't really given me a lot to work with. Look at his ISO, very little of it is reads or arguments with players. I don't see a reason to move my vote yet and I'll be watching what he does closely. However, as the game goes on, if we start drumming up a wagon on some of my other suspects (Tails or W-nl are the main two at the moment) and I've seen enough from Dav, I might hop there for more pressure. Or someone else could do something absurdly scummy that compels me to vote for them instead. Mario almost got me with that terrible logic of "GL defending LQ means LQ (a former MM townread) is scum", but I decided it wasn't enough to negate my townread on his earlier play.

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does no one else find wanders recent posts scummy?

*waves*

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To those that think my posts are scummy:mind actually talking to me about it instead of staying vague?

Sure:

First, this caught my eye:

I have a townread on smiffle and I don't know why people are scumreading him (btw smiffle, you don't have a vote out atm)

Mario is the only person scumreading smiffle, as far as I can tell. But you don't bother to interact with Mario at all, you just say you have a townread on his scumread. Given that you have no other townreads, I'm not sure what the point of making that comment is, other than to sound town, possibly buddying smiffle.

Then, we have this:

I'm not really sure what to think about LQ and GL. I'm troubled by GL's defending of LQ in his 387, even though GL isn't saying LQ is town, he also isn't saying he is scum, but it still is a fairly defensive post overall regarding LQ and that doesn't work with his prior attitude towards him (which was rather critical, as if he was scumreading LQ)

This is summary, not analysis. Like I read this, and I still have no idea what you think this means about my alignment.

I'll give you some credit in that you provide analysis a second later:

LQ looks scummy to me, but I don't think the 2 are scum together (I believe I read this somewhere already as well, don't remember who said it, Davsto?) Is it possible we're in a multiball?

So then you're choosing to drift towards the popular wagon being scum. That's a safe position to take. And as a kicker you've hedged here in multiple ways, so that if we lynch LQ, regardless of what he flips, you've positioned yourself nicely to start pushing on me next.

xtoxm changing his mind on multiball after smiffle's post makes me feel uncomfortable.

Why bring this up if you're not gonna go anywhere with it? Is talking about multiball in this context really alignment indicative?

Overall, your ISO is just throwing out these vague statements where you don't push to develop them and you don't take any controversial stances. It's a faint scumlean, which is why I didn't immediately sheep Xtomx and jump onto you -

(take a moment here to note that Davsto re-entered the game just to defend himself but didn't comment on anything at all beyond that)

- but nothing you've done yet makes me feel town on you.

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Davsto can you stop defending yourself and start telling us about your reads on other players? Everything you've posted since 269 is solely intended to tell us you aren't scum (other than 565, which is just throwing shade on LQ). Am I still your top scumread? Are you still scumreading smiffle? What do you think of LQ? What do you think of literally any other player?

Mario's vote on Nana is lazy, but I also think it's a townish thing to do. Scum would be more scared of voting on an unpredictable possibly-a-mod-alt thing (unless they already know how it/she works).

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Dude I feel like everything you highlighted in blue just proves my point.

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Your read of "oh wait he's probably town but I'm not sure so we'll see"?

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Yeah pretty much :p. But I've also given reads on most of the other players in the game as well. I feel like Davsto could vote anyone at this point and claim he has been scumreading them.

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I'm trying to digest this Tails move... doesn't feel like it would come from scum jumping off of an easy BW.

Tails do you have a read on Wanderer? Do you think Xtomx's push there is genuine? And if you're reconsidering your read on LQ, do you think anyone pushing his wagon is scum?

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^Wait, I guess this is a stupid question, I forgot that Mario jumped on the LQ bandwagon. I need to take a harder look at Mario, I townread him early but he's been coasting off that credit for a while.

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and I second smiffles' request for a VC

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Where was he defending him pre-noticing-the-claim? He said he thought Genda's posts weren't that bad but he'd be okay with joining a wagon on any lurker (524). Then he said he preferred his Wanderer push but reaffirmed that if there was interest in a Genda wagon he'd go for it (526). Neither of that looks like defense to me, and I find it weird that LQ is awarding "big town points" for that.

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EBWOP - "big town points" being for smiffles saying the defense was weird.

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Also LQ, if I may quote here:

Not lynching Xt is pretty obvious and the fact that you even have doubt about this is a little off putting.

What happened to this sentiment?

(this kind of shit is exactly why I don't advocate for spouting off worthless reads that you're going to backtrack on later. It just makes you look bad)

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And where have I said we are lynching Xt today? You must have seen I didn't throw a vote in that direction right?

Nah, the inconsistency is that you were putting pressure on me for saying Xtoxm was "probably" a townread - because it was certain that we weren't lynching him at that point? my read wasn't strong enough? - but then when Smiffle starts to throw doubt on Xtoxm, you award him townie points for that.

Overall your response beyond that was fine though, so I don't think this is a point worth pressing any further.

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If Mario flips scum we have 3 confirmed Town. Nana, Dav and Myself.

Why not include Tails here? Assuming Mario flips scum, do you think scum!Tails would jump off an LQ wagon to go onto his scumbuddy Mario's, when a Mario wagon hadn't even started yet?

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I just read 8-15
You all look scummy as hell.

Tails-Null
Mario-Town
Metal Sonic-Town

Everyone else is either null or scum leaning.
Why are you all acting scummy as shit?

Why include Tails explicitly as null but then say everyone else is null or scumlean?

And can you explain your Smiffle scumread cause I'm not feeling that one at all.

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Xtoxm do you disagree or are you just taking issue with my questions again

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Lickety you seriously need to stop jumping in when I ask questions to other people

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And at least give me an answer to what I asked you if you're gonna do that

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And Xtoxm frankly your jump in pisses me off because I am trying to sort Lickety and asking him questions in a specific way to help me do so, and you're just shitting on my process when it's not even aimed at you.

PEdit - LQ nothing in my questions are dependent on the current context of the thread, it's entirely about the post that Fire made.

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You're not explaining why it's scummy, and your answer to the question I asked you made it sound like you just disagree with the way I asked the question. Which I phrased intentionally in that way for a certain reason for the express purpose of seeing how Lickety responds, but that's probably blown up at this point because you decided to jump in and take a lazy jab at me for it and forced me to entertain this entire digression. You're stalling my effort to get a firmer read on Lickety, who has been one of the hardest ones for me to resolve so far, congratulations

PEdit: wtf LQ I never said anything close to even implying that Fire is an idiot. Can you stop blocking my effort to read him?

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Not answering questions directed at other people is literally mafiascum 101 and I'm pissed that you two decided to consecutively block two separate efforts to figure things out for myself. I'm out for now so post all you want. Later

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for the record when I initially suggested Xtoxm was ganondorf I didn't mean anything alignment indicative by it.

I doubt Xtoxm would claim ganon if he thought it was at risk of him getting immediately pinned as scum by Zelda, there could be bastard mechanics at work here.

regardless Xtoxm has been reading my posts uncharitably the whole game, at first I thought he was town cause he was relatively transparent for it but then his shenanigans on page 31 make me think he's holding onto me as a pocket mislynch-push for D2 if Wanderer flipped town.

PEDIT: neutral survivor claim? What if Davsto is the scum here?

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Kinda want Xt's latest thoughts on Davsto but no problems with lynching a survivor claim

Like seriously Davsto I think you should hard claim a flavor if Xtoxm says you own a triforce, because we have Zelda and Ganon claims already and you're starting to defend yourself entirely by theory-spec

VOTE: Xtoxm

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why are you hesitating?

probably because Wanderer is scum and worried about making a vote on a survivor look justified

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lol massive simultaneous post

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There is no pro-town motivation in being against a survivor lynch. Advocating lynching somebody else is explicitly anti-town, and I'm suspicious of everyone choosing not to be on the Xtoxm wagon.

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There is no pro-town motivation in being against a survivor lynch. Advocating lynching somebody else is explicitly anti-town, and I'm suspicious of everyone choosing not to be on the Xtoxm wagon.

Wrong.

Stop quoting site meta as your go to.
Everyone on this site sheeps the same stupid strategy for dealing with Survivors, its old. Its stupid.

It's not meta, it's logic and common sense. Can you name a pro-town reason for not lynching a claimed survivor D1 that doesn't rely on trusting the Surv's intentions?

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I mean if we had confirmed scum I would lynch that instead but it's D1 so

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my reads are accurate, bro

I still think claimed survivor is the best lynch, because Xtoxm could be scum lying and because Wanderer could be town (whereas Xtoxm is guaranteed non-town). But if you all feel like you have to lynch somebody else because Tails aggressively demands it, then Wanderer is the ideal choice, so I'm not gonna fight it.

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VOTE: Xtoxm

Fire, you don't even know that he's actually a survivor.

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion: please explain your read on Lickety to me, nice and slow. What you think his alignment is, why you think that, and which posts of his led you to that conclusion. I feel like you've spent the majority of the game deliberately maintaining a nullread on him. You defended him quite a bit, but continuously reiterated that you had no particular leaning on his alignment and didn't seem all that interested in poking him yourself, which. I find pretty strange, as he was the center of discussion for quite a bit.

I think Lickety is town. In the beginning of the game, it was

obvious

that he was painting himself as a target to get people to vote/push on him. 31, 35, 54, 99, 105, 106, the troll posts go on and on. Predictably, a lot of people in this game did the 'easy' thing and started voting him - some were probably town, some weren't. I wanted to assess which ones had genuine intentions vs which ones were scum going for an easy ML, which is why I defended him, to get people to explain why he would be a good lynch. I didn't know exactly why he was playing this game - I figured he was either jester or vig - but I wanted to use the opportunity he gave me to sort other players in the game.

Outside of his trolling, he's done a fair bit of scumhunting and moving the game forward - you could read my post 387 where I list the initial town things he's done in his ISO. And then he proved that my theory correct when he dayvigged Mario, who had the worst reasons for voting him. (I even called out Mario's terrible reasoning myself, in 411 and 452).

My only doubt on LQ is his answering my questions towards Firebringer and then trying to misrep me for my frustration when he did that, saying I was "nervous" and strawmanning the shit out of me by acting like I was saying no one can post. That whole exchange left an

incredibly

sour taste in my mouth, to the point where I'm still annoyed by it days later. But, he was probably just trying to sort me using that tactic, as obnoxious and anti-town as it was.

As for you Grib,

Plus, I think Xtoxm's attitude meshes well with a frustrated Survivor rather than caught fakeclaiming scum living on borrowed time.

Can you explain this? What parts of his posts read explicitly like Survivor as opposed to scum?

I wouldn't lynch him because, presumably, killing him does nothing for parity. My wincon is to win with the town, not eliminate all threats, and I don't really consider him to be a threat at the moment.

He's absolutely a threat. When we get to LYLO, a survivor is essentially a mafia vote, because they want to end the game ASAP. Xtoxm can promise he'll vote with town all he wants, but in the end I do not want to leave my chances of winning up to the whims of a neutral player.

[GuiltyLion]

With respect to the stuff you spoilered: we could enter the WIFOM of "that's what scum would say if they were claiming surv", but that would be a useless argument for both of us. I guess my point is that I don't see anything in there that confirms that he's not scum.

I want Xtoxm to give us Link. If he's not gonna do that, then I don't see a reason to move my vote off of him. Plus, my vote on him is useful for me to see what everyone else says about it. I could move my vote to Firebringer or Gendaberry (wildcard Davsto but the Sheik claim actually makes me rethink my earlier position on that slot), but I feel like that would be just as useless as it is currently.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, I hate the strategy of trolling/being scummy on purpose to gather votes on yourself for analysis. It just causes unnecessary confusion and makes you sound less credible when you suddenly decide to take the game seriously, because then it looks like you're just pandering to the people attacking you for your bright idea.

So do I, but my first game ever on this site I mislynched somebody and outed myself as PR because they did the same thing. So I have experience with players who play that way.

And you want to talk about easy, you know what else is super, super easy? Lynching a claimed Survivor.

Sure, but in the end lynching the survivor is at worst slightly good for town. At best, it's actually lynching scum. It's 100% better than another mislynch on town.

What do you think of Lickety's hammer and his vote for Xtoxm toDay? Also, if you think Lickety is town,

LicketyQuickety (5): smiffle, Tails, Metal Sonic, MarioManiac4, Gendaberry
Davsto (2): All Alone, GuiltyLion
GuiltyLion (1): Davsto
Wanderer-nl (1): Xtoxm


do you think there were scum on his wagon here? Besides Mario, of course.

I would like to know why Lickety kept saying he gets something from hammering. What was that thing, and why was it important for him to hammer?

I think his vote on Xtoxm is okay, you're right that it's a contradiction in what he said before but I could see him changing his mind once Wanderer flipped town. He seems pretty loose with his opinions, he doesn't think about things a lot before he posts them. He's already been called out for this when he had completely inconsistent views on Wanderer/Xtoxm slots.

With respect to the LQ wagon, I was actually leaning scum on Tails until his NK. I think Metal Sonic/ika slot is essentially conftown due to the way the interaction with Xtoxm went, and smiffle is a strong townread. Gendaberry is coasting off of the miller claim, besides that he hasn't done much, seems like he has to be goaded into giving his opinions. So if there is scum besides Mario, I'd pick Gendaberry, but I'm not all that confident in it.

Also, it might just be me, but with the way yesterDay played out, it really looks like Tails was shot for tunneling into Lickety and then townreading him later in the Day.

This is a good point. Tails NK is pretty baffling to me.

Nah, that's lazy voting, and that's not okay. What is your vote on Xtoxm actually going to accomplish? What else is there to react to in this scenario?

Well, we could use an Xtoxm post, to start with.

I generally don't like to move my vote unless it's on someone I'm okay with lynching (as okay as I can be at the time - obviously stuff like RVS or early game votes are less significant than later votes). I've seen too many games where townies get quicklynched because people were voting them solely for something they didn't like, or because someone missed the VC, or whatever. Setting the precedent of 'yeah just vote someone as soon as they do something questionable' makes it easier for scum to hide on wagons. You can rest assured that whoever I'm voting is my top lynch candidate.

[GuiltyLion]

and lion.

you suggesting i'd have played d1 as i did as fucking group scum. AND killed the primary advocate of not lynching me.

then you are either being really bad or really scummy.

wifom wifom wifom.

Nothing in your play couldn't come from scum!ganon who got caught by Zelda. But go ahead and waste a daycop on me if you feel that helps you. It'd at least get you to stop tunneling me (for reasons that were never properly explained).

[GuiltyLion]

Also, not answering any of your questions.

^I hate this attitude, town should be happy to answer any questions directed at them. His questions weren't even loaded.

VOTE: Firebringer

[GuiltyLion]

Xtoxm I actually think Firebringer would be a decent check here.

If not Fire then All Alone, All Alone has 7 posts total and jumped on that Wanderer wagon preeetttyyy quickly yesterday.

[GuiltyLion]

totally good with Xt lynch, but if anyone wants to talk more, they should get the chance to. Also happy to let LQ hammer if he wants

[GuiltyLion]

Lying about a result on Xtoxm was the easiest way to get everyone on board with lynching a survivor, it was pretty clever. Survivors only harm town if they stick around and have net negative utility once they are outed as it gives scum one fewer person to target as potential PR, as well as a distraction to dominate daytalk. And we could not rely on Xtoxm to vote with town in LyLo.

VOTE: Firebringer
for being pro-Survivor D1 and not handling pressure from Grib in a town manner. I have other reasons to be suspicious of this slot too but it's best to only hit at those for now.

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, and do we get a Davsto flip?

anyway, I half-roleblocked Fire N2, which is what I was crumbing at earlier. But for the roleblock to have gone through, someone else would have had to target him as well.

VOTE: Firebringer

[GuiltyLion]

All Alone, what happened to your Davsto scumread?

His disappearance looks incredibly sketchy to me, like town would make better reads by arguing with people pushing on them instead of watching us turbolynch the other suspect. I'd love for him to post these reads that he made after he removed himself from the lynchpool.

VOTE: Davsto

[GuiltyLion]

lol at everyone voting Dav. You guys do realize the dude can just commute if things get too hot to handle? Then he wouldn't be here to answer our questions.

Davsto, is your commute ability X-shot or something that you can use every day?

[GuiltyLion]

K I'm gonna treat you as town for now then because if X > 1 then that's a broken role for scum to have.

UNVOTE:

Also with respect to this point:

2. I doubt she would've claimed survivor if she actually was turning into one. Ika was still alive, and has already shown no mercy to survivor claims. Claiming survivor would be blatantly anti-wincon for an actual survivor. If she knew she was becoming scum, and could therefore shoot ika, a survivor claim makes a lot more sense.

That's fair, but my original take was I doubted she would claim survivor as scum for the exact same reasons. It's just such an arbitrary claim that didn't wasn't even necessary at the time, felt to me like frustration rather than a devious scheme. Although on further reflection I guess a real survivor would just play up the town aspect and ignore any questions about alignment-changing, so you're absolutely right that claiming it is anti-survivor win-con.

Someting I remembered:

I give no flip when I die.

@Nana

- can you explain this in more detail? Your Mason, Popo, gave a flip when he died.

[GuiltyLion]

Gendaberry who'd you RB last night?

[GuiltyLion]

I came to that conclusion because if he's scum that has multiple commutes, he can just commute every time we get close to lynching him and he becomes unlynchable scum. Short of a vig shot, there'd be no way to kill him.

The best solution would be for him to commute every day when we decide on a lynch, and if he doesn't do that or he doesn't die before MY/LYLO, then he's scum, but that might be a waste if he only has a very small number of commutes, which is why I let him slide for yesterday since Nana was gonna be lynched regardless.

[GuiltyLion]

Alright, I was a bit confused because you said you would treat him as town for yesterday's reason, but it sounds like your read now is largely based on the number of commutes he potentially has. Also, are you saying it's futile to attempt a lynch on him today if he enters the game and says he has more than one commute, or were you planning to only let it slide yesterday?

If he says he has more than one commute, then this is what I propose-

1. Wagon someone else
2. No one hammers until Davsto commutes
3. Davsto not commuting is a scumclaim

Similar to how they handled Starbuck's shatter mechanic in GBA mafia.

If Davsto has a bunch of commutes he's basically town, I refuse to believe scum would have a mechanic that avoids lynching unless town has a bunch of killing roles. If he claims to have a bunch of commutes but doesn't use them, he's scum. That's basically how I intend to sort him, because his ISO as it stands is scum but it's a waste to push him if his role makes him town.

[GuiltyLion]

Dav correct me if I'm wrong, you're saying you can use your commutes by day or by night? I don't see what pro-town purpose a day commute serves, so I'm not sure why you're worried about 'wasting' them.

[GuiltyLion]

Like the only benefit of a day commute is to prove you're town because we can't lynch you.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not commuting until I'm at risk of being lynched. I'd like to stay here and be as useful as possible before I have to warp out due to mislead people.

Do you agree with my point about how you should commute once we decide to lynch someone else to prove that you're not scum lying about having more commutes?

Who do you think is scum? In 1388 you make it sound like it's scum pushing you but then in 1392 you make it sound like it's town pushing you.

[GuiltyLion]

Also I've been thinking about whether it's anti-town to ask this but I decided now is the best time to do it:

Does anyone else have hitstun (partial roleblock)? Because Tails had it, and Grib flipped "modified-roleblocker" so I'm assuming he had it, and my hitstun is worthless at this point if no one else has it anymore. If someone does have it, then before a lynch we should coordinate on who we RB if we see a scum flip, and we should coordinate with Gendaberry on RBs if he's alive going into an even numbered night. I targeted LQ with hitstun last night, but that was obviously redundant with Genda RBing him as well.

[GuiltyLion]

Using them when I don't need to is an awful idea.

But there only use is to prove that you're town. Why would you not want to do that? When would be a better time to day-commute?

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP cause that one was bad - their*

[GuiltyLion]

That analogy doesn't work because a Day Cop use would hypothetically have more value if you saved it and used it another time.

There's no real use to day-commuting other than to show that we shouldn't/can't lynch you. It will never tell us about another player's alignment.

I'm all for you sticking around and communicating us while we work through the day. However, right before we lynch someone - if we decide to lynch someone else - you should use it to verify that you are what you say you are.

[GuiltyLion]

Fine, then you're forcing my hand to do this

VOTE: Davsto

In case ika derphammers before Davsto can commute, my hitstun plans:

if Davsto flips town there's no benefit to announcing who I am targeting as a multi-person scumteam could coordinate their NKs around that.

if Davsto flips scum then I'm targeting smiffle

[GuiltyLion]

I mean if you're town and you just made yourself unlynchable then that's a win in my book. I don't understand how you don't see the pro-town reasons to commute today.

[GuiltyLion]

if that's a hammer and in case I die tonight, I encourage everyone alive tomorrow to read smiffle's ISO and ctrl+F "Dav".

[GuiltyLion]

I'm going to be so pissed if he's scum and he can do this.

I like All Alone for scum if Davsto is town

[GuiltyLion]

If Davsto is scum with commutes then I think smiffle is a good candidate for a partner. I can explain my thoughts on that later, I'm about to head out for the evening.

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah I'm still pretty inclined to think Dav is scum. Town would understand that removing themselves from the lynch pool strictly increases our chance of hitting scum, and that their commute is pretty much only valuable for that reason.

I have no idea why Dav seemed so annoyed at 'wasting' his commutes when he really can only use them today and tomorrow anyway.

[GuiltyLion]

In a similar vein to what All Alone just pointed out:

lol at everyone voting Dav. You guys do realize the dude can just commute if things get too hot to handle? Then he wouldn't be here to answer our questions.

implies knowledge that Dav has multiple commutes before this was ever explicitly stated in the thread.

I have a few other things that I want to point out in smiffles ISO that makes me believe they could be partners, but I've been lazy and had another game at deadline yesterday so I haven't gotten around to it yet. I'll try to do it today on my lunch break or tonight. The only reason I'm uncomfortable with this line of thinking is because it's based on a scum!Davsto assumption, and the more assumptions you build into a case then the less likely it is to be true.

[GuiltyLion]

Alright here are things in smiffle's ISO that I don't like, if we are to assume scum!Davsto:

in 246, Lickety's townread on Dav is "jank" because "Dav's meh"
in 247, smiffle says Dav is his second scumread after LQ
but, one RL day later,
in 421 my vote on Davsto is poor and he really digs into me, says he wishes he could be voting me alongside Lickety.

all because I sheeped a mutual townread (All Alone) onto someone he was supposedly scumreading.

now in 423, Dav seems more townish to smiffle as soon as a legitimate wagon has formed on him.

468 and 470 is more soft distancing on Davsto, possibly even coaching "why is he explaining himself?, what reason does he have to be weird?"
and then 473 is literally "here's this kinda scummy thing Dav is doing [being passive], but lots of people are doing it". Like what's the point of that comment other than to soften people's reasons for scumreading Dav?

590 and 594 is just asking Davsto for reads on random players, Firebringer is an especially safe one because he had just entered and hadn't really drawn a lot of attention yet, at all

1277 - "Dav feels like a strong lynch for today" *doesn't vote Dav*

1293 - "you can bet your biscuits I'm going to push him hard tomorrow" [on Dav]
but then:
1331 - accepts everything Dav says, votes Dav's scumread Nana.

[GuiltyLion]

I want scumreads from smiffle.

The thing is Gendaberry claimed sleepwalking miller and we saw two tracker flips which somewhat validates his claim IMO.

I still think LQ is town, so I'm kind of at a loss for a lynch here. All Alone what makes you convinced that smiffle is town?

[GuiltyLion]

Smiffle - It supports his claim because he specifically claimed sleepwalker results that would show up to watchers/trackers, and now we've seen that there are confirmed trackers in the game. It's not foolproof, but it's evidence that his claim makes sense in the setup.

[GuiltyLion]

Can we get an exact counter to deadline?

I will vote Genda if absolutely needed but I don't think it's likely that he flips scum

[GuiltyLion]

to be honest I'm just really stuck here, no one makes sense as a partner for Davsto other than smiffle but smiffle independently looks fairly town.

Lynching Genda is basically assuming Davsto is town and then lynching on the basis of a miller claim which scum really have no reason to fake. But I have a stronger townread on LQ and it's not clear that any other wagons are gonna happen today. Also I have been a bit curious about him claiming full RB'er when this game has a mechanic entirely around partial-RBing, he did say it was even-nights only but that's still a lot of RBs to throw around. Maybe a flavor claim would help explain it.

I'm gonna be in-out today since I'm flying back home today, so I'll just vote now, but I'll be checking in when I can
VOTE: Gendaberry

assuming Davsto returns to the game, I'll be targeting him with hitstun tonight.

[GuiltyLion]

I do want to say before night that if Davsto is legitimately town and Genda flips town then I think All Alone/smiffle is a viable scumteam.

[GuiltyLion]

Why are you defending yourself against someone who we lynched?

I'm not really confident in anything except ika being town. Davsto still looks scummy but it makes me uncomfortable that everyone in the game is openly trying to lynch him.

At what point do you guys think we should massclaim to try to break this game?

[GuiltyLion]

he was just raring for a chance to get me out of the game, a lot less pressure on him.

Also this is just false, I asked you to be here the whole day and then commute when we decide to lynch, and you refused to agree to that. That forced my hand to make you comply, because there's no pro-town reason not to commute when everyone thinks you might be scum. It's not like your commute would have been more useful later, this might even be MYLO for all we know.

[GuiltyLion]

Okay who's down to mass claim? I believe I can fully explain the lack of NKs the past two nights, as well as Davsto's comments at the end of the day. I'm resisting spilling all the beans but I will if we think massclaim should happen.

[GuiltyLion]

Also thinking we may still be in LYLO

[GuiltyLion]

If Davsto had two buddies then they would have controlled half the town yesterday.

ah yeah I got paranoid/tricked by his "partners" comment

[GuiltyLion]

smiffle are you cool with massclaim, y/y?

[GuiltyLion]

no they can definitely still NK. I received % two nights ago. I believe my action last night thwarted an attempted kill. And Davsto was absolutely trying to convey information with his comments about Fox and being a self-watcher.

Personally I came into the day thinking it's smiffle, but part of my reason for wanting massclaim is that All Alone implied he has reasons to think smiffle is town. If smiffle is town then I think it's Lickety, especially given his weird take on Dav's wagon and 3p hunting. My hesitation there is that I seem to be the only one really townreading LQ, so I don't know why scum!LQ would target me instead of smiffle or AA.

Anyway I'll do a full claim in a post coming up in a sec, just wanted this to be a separate post.

[GuiltyLion]

Alright so I am Kirby, 1-shot "absorber" and 1-shot commuter ("stone" ability).

The absorber ability means I can swallow any living or dead player and gain one of their abilities. I'm impatient/wanted to investigate N1 so I absorbed Tails, which gave me his Laser ability, partial roleblock.

I lasered Davsto on N5 and he was a self-watcher, so that is why he probably thought I was Fox and was telling his partner to kill me yesterday.

After I received % on N5 and saw Davsto's comments, I decided to use the stone/commute last night. I expect I was targeted and that's why I didn't die.



Overall, my night actions went:

Spoiler: night actions

n1 - absorb Tails

n2 - laser Firebringer
No death, but Genda RB'd Davsto which probably blocked the kill.

n3 - no action (forgot to send a PM)
ika died and was resurrected

n4 - laser LQ
Grib died

n5 - laser Davsto
(received %)

n6 - commute

My guess is scum cannot kill directly but can inflict %, perhaps each have abilities that inflict %. If anyone else received % or used hitstun, you should explain it so we can possibly see when people were RB'd or when people were targeted with %.

[GuiltyLion]

it's hitstun, it's partial-roleblock. If someone else also attempts to use hitstun on someone, then the target is roleblocked.

[GuiltyLion]

ika, can you help me think about why scum!LQ would attack me last night as opposed to anyone else?

That's my big hangup, it seems like killing me would be a death sentence for scum!LQ since AA has defended smiffle and no one wants to push ika.

[GuiltyLion]

Cool so AA is confirmed town via the best friend thing.

I say lynch smiffle, RB Lickety and there's no way we can lose.

[GuiltyLion]

No that image was not in the role PM. I just did it for kicks. That's a ridiculous reason to suspect someone.

RB you because I feel ika is obvtown, AA is conftown. so if smiffle flips green, RBing you either prevents the kill in which case we know you're scum, or does not prevent the kill in which case you all would know I'm scum.

But I'm pretty sure lynching smiffle is gg, given his interactions with Davsto and his claim which is terribly anti-town and something he should have said D1.

[GuiltyLion]

Seriously though how could that image be in my role PM when I hadn't absorbed Tails at the time of receiving my role

[GuiltyLion]

I wrote up a big case on why I think smiffle is scum with Davsto in 1433, and the commute slips are pretty damning as well IMO.

Intent to hammer. Mostly not hammering yet out of politeness in case ika/smiffle want some words. I never know how to handle intent in these possible-endgame scenarios, seems rude to hammer before they say anything in case they're town but seems rude to not hammer when you don't intend to change your mind. I'll def hammer by EOD and before then if smiffle makes a post.

[GuiltyLion]

gg smiffle, you played really well and weren't even on my radar until I was sure that Davsto was scum and went partner-hunting. It's impressive to survive this long with that many RBs/PRs flying around.

I think Lickety dayvigging the SK on D1 was a huge setback for the scumteam as well. That was a pro shot LQ.

Thanks vonflare for modding! This was excellent flavor and a lot of fun roles/events! I really enjoyed the game from start to finish.