Blitz 15: Monks and Masons in Serona II - GAME OVER!

[Ranger]

/confirming I'm Light.

[Ranger]

{hi im Yakko, pisskop}
{Umlaut}
{Anxiety Attack}
{Lowell}
{Frozen Angel}
{BlackStar, Bebop, AlwaysInnocent, tojam2}
{Kaboose}
{Spigot}

VOTE: Spigot.

[Ranger]

Could switch to Kaboose, but Spigot has no reason to townread me so they're still scum, too.

[Ranger]

Ranger, what is your reason for townreading Yakko and pisskop?

Their posting immediately sent of town flags.

Ranger's having a readlist already is bizarre.

I'm hurt, Umlaut, my close friend. You've played with me before.

...Unless bizarre is a compliment, in which case, thank you. :P

Kaboose is already at L-2? That went surprisingly fast...

Not fast enough!
VOTE: Kaboose.

[Ranger]

Ranger kind of did a similar play to that in the last game she played but I wouldn't call it town so much as typical but I haven't seen a scumgame of hers and maybe ika can help with that.

I have two completed: Blitz 1 and Blitz 7. However, it should be noted I was slightly V/LA for Blitz 1, and Blitz 7 was highly atypical of my game, period, because it was an entire game filled with apathy.

Not a great sample size.

I'm content with being a perpetual null-read overall as a result.

Agree with Lowell's 54. This is exactly where my mind is at this point in the game. Town points here so far.

Indeed, which is why he (and you) are strong townreads of mine now. (I need to update the list to reflect that.)

[Ranger]

Don't metaread Ranger. She manipulates her meta.

What meta?
Meta implies I actually have some.
I really, really don't. Too few scumgames. I honestly can't tell the difference between my scum game and my town game, which is why I call BS on those who claim things like this:

LOL Ranger says I have no reason to town read her but there is apparently enough content from RVS for her to lay out a reads list here.

The difference is I

specialize

in getting reads off of RVS content, whereas you

have every reason to distrust me

. That you would townread me instead sends off immediate red flags.

I was townreading Ranger because her reads list seemed to invite a lot of discussion around it and I find not explaining a reads list like that pretty "I don't care what you think" which isn't scum behavior. Yeah it's pretty weak but it's there.

Spigot is, 100% scum, for this. I'm calling Spiffeh out on that BS.

[Ranger]

{hi im Yakko, pisskop, Anxiety Attack, Lowell}
{Frozen Angel}
{Umlaut}
{tojam2}
{BlackStar, Bebop}
{Always Innocent}
{Kaboose, Spigot}

[Ranger]

I'm not sure about pisskop town. I usually can tell when he's town and I haven't gotten that yet this game.

Admittedly it's not as absolute as I'd like, but early indicators are still positive.

[Ranger]

I don't think someone who is town should be content with the other townies not being able to read them.

Well, there's not much that can be done. I do what's natural every game. Natural scum play of mine, as far as I can tell, isn't markably different from natural town play of mine. So I've learned to live with it. I'm not

happy

about it, but I am content.

Although looking up now I see Ranger moved his vote AWAY from spigot just before calling him scum.

@Ranger, explain this for me?

They're both equally strong scum. I'll vote whichever of the two has the larger wagon.

[Ranger]

She said (paraphrasing): "I am always null. I am fine with that."

Bad wording on my part.

Better wording would be: I'm not always null.

I'm just content with people not being able to read me. I'm not happy they can't, but I live with it. If there isn't any marked difference between my town game and my scum game, which as far as I'm aware there isn't, then it's what I deserve, for not being able to make myself look town when I'm town. Make sense?

[Ranger]

What is happening right now?? Everyone is randomly voting for me without giving any reasons.

So I'm

pretty

sure this is a scum reaction to getting wagoned, but I'm not absolutely positive. My scumreads on Kaboose and Spigot are stronger, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut...I'm willing to risk it.

Vote: BlackStar

.

[Ranger]

Meep. ._.

So I pushed Spigot pretty hard, making it obvious that I'm not a mafiate, but unfortunately, that's nothing you wouldn't already know. (I'm the other mason.)

I don't have anything to prove I'm not a werewolf, though. :/

VOTE: Kaboose.
Worth a try.

[Ranger]

Isoing Spigot, I can't help but think they were an intentional cross-kill. There's literally nothing but scum, scum, scum in their posting.

From the iso, though, you can tell: {Ranger, Yakko, Lowell} are definitely not mafia; {pisskop, Kaboose, Anxiety Attack} have a reduce chance of being mafia. (Though Kaboose is probably a werewolf.)

[Ranger]

Move Anxiety Attack to definitely not a mafiate, given their vote record.

I would look to the members of the Kaboose wagon for Spigot's partner, or alternatively, Always Innocent.
So for Spigot's partner, I've got a pool of: {Frozen Angel, BeBopAReBop RhubarbPie, tojam2, Always Innocent}.
Given I have a townread on Frozen Angel (I'll need to revisit it to make sure, though), and I suspect Bebop might be town (not absolutely sure, though), I'm mostly looking at tojam2/Always Innocent.

My guess would be Always Innocent.

[Ranger]

Yakko, Spigot and Pisskop are town-leaning for me.

Yo, AI.

Why did you find it suspect that I townread Yakko and pisskop so strongly yet they're 2/3 of your townreads here?

[Ranger]

So I'm basically assuming that Kaboose is a werewolf, here.
I don't see the game making sense otherwise.

If this is true, then objectively, the names in the werewolf pool would be: {Ranger, Anxiety Attack (both them and I voted for Kaboose's counterwagon), pisskop}.
Always Innocent, by the same metric, technically would count as well, however, Always Innocent is an unlikely werewolf because he was on the same wagon as Kaboose and I don't think that he would do that if they were scumbuddies.

So my options are: Kaboose was bussed, I was wrong about Anxiety Attack being town (I don't

think

I was? I still feel like they're town), or I was wrong about pisskop being town. (I'm not sure. I definitely need to consider it.)

Spoiler: Names on Kaboose

Frozen Angel, hi im Yakko, BeBopAReBop RhubarbPie, tojam2, Lowell
Frozen Angel, hi im Yakko, tojam2, Lowell (Bebop left)
Kaboose (3): Frozen Angel, tojam2, Lowell (Yakko left)
Kaboose (3): Frozen Angel, tojam2, Ranger (Lowell left)
Kaboose (2): tojam2, Ranger (Frozen Angel left)
Kaboose (1): tojam2 (I left).

From this, it's pretty conclusive that tojam would not be a Kaboose-buddy

Of course, this is just speculation until we actually get a Kaboose-werewolf flip.

So:
Mafia is most likely either Always Innocent or tojam2.
Kaboose is basically a given werewolf.
Objectively, likely werewolves would be in those who were on the Kaboose counterwagon, {Myself, Anxiety Attack, pisskop}, but I'm pretty sure Anxiety Attack is town.
I'll review pisskop, as well as: {Yakko, Bebop, Frozen Angel}.

[Ranger]

Why, exactly, am I a WW?

Well, you're not mafia but you're clearly posting like scum, so...

[Ranger]

I like Kaboose's response to these questions.

Kaboose isn't scum because of the hammer, though, so his answering the questions does not change his alignment.

Lemme go back to a long-lost target.

VOTE: anxiety attack. There's two of them, right? seems like they're hiding in plain sight.

This is chasing ghosts. Save looking for a second for after nailing the first. So vote Kaboose.

[Ranger]

549 is 100% a scum post and confirms that AlwaysInnocent is the second mafiate.

tojam is not a likely werewolf (because tojam voted Kaboose D1 in a manner unlikely to be a bus), and with AI confirming himself as being a mafiate, is therefore town.

So that wagon sucks.

I agree that tojam looks bad but is much too easy a target.

I think davesaz is town for this.

He reminds me of that guy last game what was his face? I dont member

You're probably thinking of Dominator. And so am I. Which is why I very much do not want tojam lynched.

Kaboose I have no clue as I've seen zero scumhunting from him but his response to the hammer pressure doesn't look scummy.

Yes, but I repeat: just because his response to the hammer pressure was good doesn't mean he is town. His lack of scumhunting and the nature of his D1 wagon basically confirm he's a werewolf.

[Ranger]

Spigot ISO shows AI or Lowell likeliest Spigot partners.

Lowell voted Spigot and pushed there.
Ergo, AlwaysInnocent is Spigot's partner.

So scum is in toeJam, AI, Lowell, and BeeBop-obviously these aren't all scum and figuring out who of these 4 is scum and who is town will be something I will be working on.

You're at least half-wrong in my eyes; tojam's not mafia and since Kaboose is a werewolf, not a werewolf, either.
Bebop/Firebringer is

probably

town, too. I'm not sure who the second werewolf is, it very well could be Lowell (though Lowell did vote Kaboose), I don't know, maybe you're right on him, but one werewolf is definitely Kaboose.

I don't like letting Kaboose live, but since getting rid of the mafia

would

give us two conftown in the form of the monks, I suppose I can compromise here.
VOTE: AlwaysInnocent.

[Ranger]

Ranger, help me out here. You are townreading tojam because of his vote on Kaboose?

Not exactly. I think that tojam is no-effort-given town. I said it in Blitz 11 in regards to Dominator: it takes a minimalist to know a minimalist. The vote on Kaboose doesn't seem like a bus, I'm pretty sure Kaboose is a werewolf, and pretty sure Always Innocent is the second mafiate, which would make tojam town. However, there's more; tojam's posting doesn't bother me at all. The desire to go into "ask me questions" mode is very understandable. I don't see it as defensive, either, because the request to be asked questions can include, "What do you think of X?", inducing scumhunting.

So actually roll with tojam. Ask tojam questions. If tojam answers them, then you have your content. If tojam doesn't, well, I'll still think tojam is town, but you have my blessing to lynch tojam anyway for being a moron.

[Ranger]

Why are you townreading me?

I had a gut-townread on Bebop before you came in, and then your posting was town.

[Ranger]

hey ranger did anyhting happen in the mason chat i dont recall any of that being brought up

In this archaic setup, we had no pregame chat. I know it sounds weird, but the monks will be able to confirm that (obviously, monks shouldn't claim right now, but when they DO claim, they will confirm that detail). The topic was locked until night one. We were both V/LA during the night (Umlaut noting that was the first post in there), and then we get a total of three posts: the first I just mentioned, then me stating how I was excited to draw mason until I realized Umlaut was only half-confirmed (I also explain where I breadcrumbed), and Umlaut's only content post follows: Umlaut explained that it's still useful information to know since we're still half-cleared, and Umlaut asked me about my list and whether I had reasons or if it was simply gut.

I'll be honest, I never saw that post until looking just now, meaning I obviously didn't respond. That's it.

[Ranger]

I don't exactly have ideas right now.
I still think Kaboose is scum, but wonder what I'm still doing alive.
A huge part of me wants to look at hi im Yakko, too, though.

[Ranger]

Actually, let's vote there.

VOTE: hi im Yakko.

Not a mafiate, but HIGHLY probable werewolf. Check out the nightkills from the wolves N1 and (I'm guessing) N2: Spigot highly suspected hi im Yakko; pisskop highly suspected hi im Yakko. hi im Yakko was also a townread of mine, explaining why I'm still alive.

[Ranger]

I think one of {tojam, Anxiety Attack} is probably the second mafiate, too, if my theory for why Lowell died is correct.

I'll need to think about it some more, though.

Sorry. I've only got my best guesses, here.

[Ranger]

Why such a strong need to explain why you're alive?

Because I'm a mason and also an early nightkill candidate more often than not.

That I am alive makes me question many of my assumptions.

What are you apologizing for?

Because I should be doing better. I nailed Spigot but couldn't get a lynch there, and since then, I have yet to, for sure, nail someone else as scum.

I also missed the whole 'AA or tojam killed Lovell' thing, and Ranger I don't see your theory anywhere after the day 3 announcement, can you say the post number or quote it please.

It's what I came away with doing nightkill analysis. I'm making my best guesses here, but I'm not confident I'm on the mark. Lowell held suspicion on both you and Anxiety Attack. He ended up dead.

pisskop's heaviest suspicion seemed to be on hi im Yakko. He ended up dead. Spigot's heaviest suspicion was also hi im Yakko, and Spigot was killed by the werewolves, an indicator that hi im Yakko would be one. I don't actually know that the werewolves killed pisskop, but it's my speculation.

I know it's not strong, but it's the best I have to work off of right now.

[Ranger]

Is there any reason we should allow Firebringer to live?

Yes. Firebringer is 100% town.

I understand the logic behind lynching you. I would be willing to vote there, but I'm not as sure about you as I am about hi im Yakko.

[Ranger]

Yakko is harder for me to read, did you make a case on him earlier?

A weak one off of NKA, yes. hi im Yakko was the main suspect of Spigot (the werewolves' kill N1), and also the primary suspect of pisskop (the N2 kill, which I am GUESSING is werewolves).

[Ranger]

Still think Kaboose could be scum for his utter lack of content, but still thinking Yakko is the better bet right now.

[Ranger]

This is the part where I say PhantomCobalt continues to not impress me.

[Ranger]

What parts of my posts don't impress you?

All of it.

And why are you using the word "continues"? I just replaced in.

Read your predecessor, Kaboose.

You could frankly be an alt of him as far as I'm concerned.

[Ranger]

Frankly, we have three scum alive right now and the only players I hold no interest in lynching are Firebringer and davesaz.

But given that we have three scum alive and that's four candidates, it's not all bad.
It's just a game of "spot the townie".

I'm honestly not sure who of {Anxiety Attack, tojam, PhantomCobalt} wins that, though I know the person who most resoundingly loses it is hi im Yakko.
Can we just lynch Yakko and work from there, please?

[Ranger]

pisskop, why did you hint at Firebringer being your monk partner?

That was quite literally the only reason that I dropped my suspicion altogether on the slot.

Firebringer, why didn't you kill me N2? That would have been the time to do it. Eliminating a player who could not be mafiate was ideal then. Leaving me alive is what allowed the wolves to more accurately nightkill/lynch players D3. (At least I don't feel too terribly bad about being on the Yakko lynch. It seems everyone in the dead thread thought Yakko was scum, too.)

I think one of the main problems in this setup is that it, quite literally, relies on crosskills in order to win.

Losing from three mislynches is something you'd see in a micro, but in a game that's this size, a town losing after three mislynches and one crosskill shouldn't happen. Simply put, there wasn't enough lynches. Let's say two town died each night. Even with a scum lynch two days in a row, that's four town dead by D3 if they were of opposite factions. That places them at being only 5/7 players alive. Keep in mind, this is off of near-optimal town play. If eliminating a scum faction by D3, that's 6/8. Simply put, the town does not have enough of an influence on the game. They have to play perfectly or they have to hope scum kill scum; there's no room for error.