Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[davesaz]

VOTE: hawkleader3
Failing to note that soapbars are bitter while still voting.

[davesaz]

Just curious, is everyone here brand new?

Judging from the join dates it's pretty clear that's a negative, though there are some who could be relatively new.
I think you can click the wiki link under my avatar if you wanna see my list.

[davesaz]

A. His thoughts lined up w/ mine. hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad.
B. Him pushing his thoughts makes me think he's town. There's no reason for Mafia to stick their head out this early in the game. It would also be really difficult to keep this up which just makes it less likely for him to do this as Mafia.

(ofc this can change over time looking at how his reads change over time but I like him for now)

I know a couple people who can act exactly like Syndesis as scum. Though I do agree it's fairly rare.

[davesaz]

VOTE: swordsworth

for the waggins.

Please clarify -- is this vote meant to start a wagon, or because swordsworth was wagoning?

[davesaz]

VOTE: hawkleader3

Might as well.

@Swordsworth, explain your vote onto hawkleader3 plzerino?

Please explain yours, especially since your reason is "might as well".

[davesaz]

Any thoughts on how Hawk's later posts? I have an opinion on them but would like to hear yours first to prevent introducing leading question bias.

pedit: that was @toolenduso.

[davesaz]

I don't actually understand the point of this random voting.

Who votes when and the reactions to the votes give us information.
Do you have any thoughts on the questions being asked, and the answers?

[davesaz]

@dave and sword: what do you think of Moosy's #36?

They can be dangerous assumptions to make, but it looks like genuine thoughts.

[davesaz]

Then there's the fact that we're in RVS, which also explains his entrance.

Just to clarify, you're referring to being in RVS at the time of the posts which are now being analyzed, right?
Most would say that we're talking about motivations and analysis now, which would mean it isn't random any more -- though there may still be pockets of quirk.

[davesaz]

What do you think about Swordsworth's entrance, does it make him likely to be scum-aligned or town-aligned?

The userid is new, created specifically to sign up for this game, if you look at the join date and date of first post. It's possible that he's from another site drawn here by this game. It's also possible that it's an "alt" userid of an experienced player, trying to appear new by not knowing custom. In either case, I'd have to say it's not alignment indicative. For the brand new user, there is no site background, and acting new is how you build an alt when you don't want people to catch on to your main id, regardless of what alignment you get in your first game.

I don't agree with reading newness like this as town "because scum would be afraid to act that way". True new players won't know what is scummy, so won't know what to avoid.

[davesaz]

I don't know why

, but I'd laugh at that for some reason

I swear, everyone and their weirdly scummy phrasing

I believe you've said this several times. Makes me wonder if you're sending those players a message of some kind.

[davesaz]

On that note, I'm infamous for not reading OP's correctly. If I'm right, there's no list of possible roles in the game and they're selected at random right?

The roles in the game are crafted carefully to balance the town vs. scum, and then assigned randomly to whatever players sign up.

But I must ask, why do you feel it's necessary to mention you're infamous for that?

[davesaz]

Not sure why typing speed matters.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

Use unvote tags like this. Putting the player name inside the tags is optional.

Code: Select all

[unvote][/unvote]

[davesaz]

Even put aside the possibility that hawk is lying about his claim, and just think about this. His claim is more likely than not going to be verified one way or another within the next day phase or two. We could get a counterclaim, or he could be NK'ed, or he could prevent a NK, or somebody could get a result on him, or so on and so forth. Him being NK'ed is probably the most likely.

So why lynch him?

This seems a little out of place, since the wagon has already started to melt. Are you not paying attention?
Or perhaps you have some motive for repeatedly making the point you think he's town?

[davesaz]

Swords feels like an experienced player who needs to look newb due to join date, mixed with genuinely not knowing site meta. I see it as slightly scummy, since scum are the ones who need to know how to act. There is another possible interpretation but I won't bring it up now because discussing it is antitown.

On the surface it would seem Moosy would have to be town, because there is the assumption that scum would not risk going all in like that on a clearly unpopular position. If Hawk flipped scum, Moosy might be able to ride that to a nearly confirmed town status. It's a little similar to the way my partner got town cred in one of my scum games. Too early to do associations, but the two of them being scumbuddies is something to guard against.

[davesaz]

Exactly. It's because hawk is solved over time that we should kill him right now as that makes the most sense.

This is anti-town to the point that it makes me wonder if you're a jester or something. (Normals can have a non-normal role)

[davesaz]

Being wrong doesn't make someone scum, unless they're scum being wrong on purpose to try to make people think they're not scum.

[davesaz]

Being wrong doesn't make someone scum, unless they're scum being wrong on purpose to try to make people think they're not scum.

What is this in reference to? I must have missed some context here.

It was in reply to the exchange between Moosy & Hawk. Moosy would be the one being wrong, asserting that it's better for town to lynch the claimed PR now rather than let scum NK them later.

[davesaz]

Not sure if Moosy trolling, sarcastic, or serious.

Not sure if I really want to think about it, either

The better question is does it matter?

At this point it seems that moosey is dead set on being anti town. We will have to deal with it at some point but day one is a bad day to do so.

Why is day 1 a bad day to do so?

Because day one is a terrible day to waste. Many people here seem to think that it is a good time to get rid of lackluster players but that simply means you are entering day 2 as a day one repeat - a day with almost no information whatsoever. It is very important for town, IMHO, to get out of that stage as fast as possible and get good interactions to proceed with. Information early on is crucial.

Basically, I hate just stabbing in the dark and that is essentially what day one is.

I don't like Moosey's posting either - it is worthless - but if we end up lynching it we are going for a PL rather than a scum lynch. While not entirely against PL's they are more of a last resort than a starting option. I hope that moosey will clean it up as the game progresses and we get more to analyze.

I agree with this sentiment. I'm very worried that Moosy might be scum trying to get away with it by being obnoxious, but if I'm wrong then we learn almost nothing from lynching him.

[davesaz]

We've had a good amount of fireworks with the Hawk runup and claim. I think we should be looking for subtle opportunism getting onto that wagon.

[davesaz]

Chaotic Neutrality (null): No read on him until he makes his post later on his reads (I feel for him. That's a lot of reading).

Don't. It's my fault + poor planning. Also I haven't worked out a way to get early reads.

I'd settle for commentary on the way.

[davesaz]

No, deadline is more like 11-12 days from now.

[davesaz]

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

I noticed many of his posts have "I feel like" or similar language, which struck me as strange. Not much if any questioning of things, more commentary on things. It makes me want to go back and reread it all with more context to see if any of those feels were controversial or if it's an attempt to blend in.

[davesaz]

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

Let's examine this a bit.

A. His thoughts lined up w/ mine. hawkleader3's opening was awkward as hell and how he immediately backed off was terribad.
B. Him pushing his thoughts makes me think he's town. There's no reason for Mafia to stick their head out this early in the game. It would also be really difficult to keep this up which just makes it less likely for him to do this as Mafia.

(ofc this can change over time looking at how his reads change over time but I like him for now)

I know a couple people who can act exactly like Syndesis as scum. Though I do agree it's fairly rare.

Moosy gives Syndesis a town read, and is questioned on it. His reasons for the town read are "he thinks like me" and "he pushes his thoughts".
My reply is an observation that these are not good reasons to town read someone, because I have seen scum do these things very effectively.
I get the feeling that you are trying to read something into what I said, that I think Syndesis is scum? Or do you think I'm trying to paint Moosy as scum?

VOTE: hawkleader3

Might as well.

@Swordsworth, explain your vote onto hawkleader3 plzerino?

Please explain yours, especially since your reason is "might as well".

How exactly is this "trying to get Moosy to look scummy without drawing attention to myself"? I am calling attention to something that is scummy, not trying to make it look scummy. How is "might as well" a valid reason for voting someone? How is asking someone for reasons while giving none yourself anything but scummy and hypocritical? Maybe you'd rather I just pound the table and yell "that's scummy"? Got a clue for you here -- sometimes you'll catch bigger fish if you cast a net.

What do you think about Swordsworth's entrance, does it make him likely to be scum-aligned or town-aligned?

The userid is new, created specifically to sign up for this game, if you look at the join date and date of first post. It's possible that he's from another site drawn here by this game. It's also possible that it's an "alt" userid of an experienced player, trying to appear new by not knowing custom. In either case, I'd have to say it's not alignment indicative. For the brand new user, there is no site background, and acting new is how you build an alt when you don't want people to catch on to your main id, regardless of what alignment you get in your first game.

I don't agree with reading newness like this as town "because scum would be afraid to act that way". True new players won't know what is scummy, so won't know what to avoid.

You lumped this in with interacting with people to make them look scummy. Who am I trying to paint as scum here? I say that Swordsworth's entrance is not alignment indicative, which is certainly not painting him as scum. My position disagrees with iraonavp's town read but says nothing about his alignment either.

[davesaz]

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

I noticed many of his posts have "I feel like" or similar language, which struck me as strange. Not much if any questioning of things, more commentary on things. It makes me want to go back and reread it all with more context to see if any of those feels were controversial or if it's an attempt to blend in.

I use feelings a lot. If you're all logic you're not gonna have a good time.

You appear to have misinterpreted my post. I'm not referring to the use of "gut" or "feelings" in making reads. I'm referring to the use of "I feel" to start off sentences. That part of my post is an observation on language.

The actual meat of my post is that it's all observations with little or no questioning. If those observations are unique then it won't bother me much. If they are predominantly rephrasing the common opinion at that point in time, then I'll be concerned that it's a case of trying to parrot the mood safely by wrapping it in language that casts the thoughts as original.

[davesaz]

This one is pretty well founded IMO.

[davesaz]

To get this out of the way: my phrasing in my ISO read on dave wasn't the greatest. I said he was trying to make people look scummy -- more like "hint that people might be scum in order to undermine townreads."

I think you're missing the point of what I'm doing.

A calls B town for no reason or a bad reason.
I point out to A that their reasoning is bad.

This does not mean I think B isn't town, nor does it mean I'm trying to convince A that B isn't town.
I'm pointing out that A might be scum because they're using bad reasoning to townread B. And trying to do it in a way that engages A to explain further, so I can sort A.

Now, go back through that again and see if you understand...

[davesaz]

Your utter inability to understand what I'm saying might be because you're town.

I'll have to consider that a little further though.

Oh, I totally understand what you think you're saying. I happen to heartily disagree that my motive has anything to do with what you say it is.

[davesaz]

Given that I am town, your attempt to discredit my scumhunting could mean you're scum.

[davesaz]

We've had a good amount of fireworks with the Hawk runup and claim. I think we should be looking for subtle opportunism getting onto that wagon.

Let me know if you find anything here btw. Unfortunately at least half of the votes on that wagon weren't serious, so I'm not sure whether it'll actually yield anything but I'm interested to see if you find anything that hasn't been highlighted yet.

hawkleader3 - (6) Davesaz, Syndesis, Swordsworth, MoosyDoosy, iraonavp, FA_Q2 L-1

My vote was RVS.
Syndesis was a naked vote, followed up with "caught scum please sheep" after Hawk replied to it.
Swordsworth piles on with a comment that claims it's RVS, but then says he doesn't understand
MoosyDoosy comes on with the "might as well" post and asks Swordsworth for a explanation
iraonavp's vote had a reason.
FA_Q2 - vote has a reason and I have no reason to suspect

Syndesis vote had all the hallmarks of a reaction test, and iraonavp and FA_Q2 both gave concrete reasoning. If there is scum my bet is on Swordsworth or MoosyDoosy.

[davesaz]

OK, I like that question. If it had been a bad reason, I would have jumped on it. So it's more correct to say reasons which make sense, at least.

[davesaz]

Okay from my initial read through I'm thinking TheCow is fairly town, especially after that vote on Tool. Not necessarily because he is correct but I feel like Town would make a bolder move such as this especially because of his attitude and lack of prep.

Is that the only reason, or do you have more?

[davesaz]

Weird, I was sure I had posted more recently than that. Maybe it was on my phone and didn't go through.

[davesaz]

Swords feels like an experienced player who needs to look newb due to join date, mixed with genuinely not knowing site meta. I see it as slightly scummy, since scum are the ones who need to know how to act. There is another possible interpretation but I won't bring it up now because discussing it is antitown.

Bringing up the reason that you're not going to discuss something because it is antitown is antitown in itself. Like, i don't want to discuss this because it might be that the subject of the discussion is PR, please discuss.

It has been long enough that I don't remember, but looking at Swords posting I feel fairly confident that it was not the kind of vibe you're referring to.

[davesaz]

Intrigued now, what did CN do so fast that he's at L-3 (??)?

Chaotic Neutrality

why are they lynching you?

Did you have any thoughts on this before asking the question?

[davesaz]

Is tool scum for the bad push or because he's leading everyone around?

What are you thinking on tool at this point?
Did you think CN's characterization of his wagon is accurate?

[davesaz]

I'm actually looking forward to people pulling up their socks and I'd like that to happen sooner rather than latter.

I note that while your posts are non-trivial, you have very few of them. Do you anticipate yourself being included in this general bar-raising?
I also have a question, I know this is a bit of a generalization but you seem to be discounting what activity is going on. Care to explain that aspect of your posts?

[davesaz]

With that said, VOTE: Metrion! Let's turn this into a fun game where Metrion flounders about and continues to post scummy things in an attempt to grasp how iraonavp worked out his alignment, while votes pile up on him!

Any plans to either follow this up or make your vote count in another way?

[davesaz]

Chaotic does look objectively scummy -- Moosy is, and has been since the beginning of the game, lynchbait

Or you're blatantly defending scum in an effort to look town. It's pretty clear you're trying very hard to look townie.

I haven't voted Moosy yet because I haven't had a chance to ISO anyone and look in depth at my reads, they're very surface level. But it should be obvious if he gets lynched that I was one of the main people pushing that wagon - I'm not going to magically be free of responsibility when he flips just because I wasn't voting him.

Infact if he flips scum I'm sure someone (you) is going to argue I was bussing. Kinda screwed either way.

He's scummy and it's not his play style that I take issue with.

This man is probably scum tbh. But feel free to lynch me. Just don't be mad when I flip blue - whoops - I mean red. Darn. Totally let out that I'm a power role by accident. Sorry guys, totally my bad, shouldn't do that in the future.

If you have surface reads you expand on them rather than soft pushing lol. And no, it's not me you're having an issue with, it's pretty obvious that it's my playstyle. If you take away all the garbage I've been pulling, I'm probably the person who's been bringing up the most points and giving town a clear direction. We lynch Swordsworth or FA_Q2 who were both early wagons first. Then we use that to judge the people who came afterwards. Unless someone gives a clear case that there is an obvious Mafia I won't switch from this plan and I highly obvious you guys to do the same. Although I'll admit I'm highly tempted to kill Chaotic Neutrality.

Your vote is in a singularly useless place right now. I'm hoping we will soon hear the popping sound that designates your head being pulled out of a dark place.
You really need to at least be playing to your wincon.

[davesaz]

Is tool scum for the bad push or because he's leading everyone around?

What are you thinking on tool at this point?

My read hasn't really changed since the last time he posted. Something of a tenuous townlean.

Did you think CN's characterization of his wagon is accurate?

Pretty much, yeah.

You sure like asking questions.

I prefer asking questions to assuming that I know what people are thinking.

The way I understand it, CN thinks that tool is solely responsible for pushing his wagon, but this contradicts what I'm actually seeing in the thread. FA_Q2 actually started it and has done at least as much. CN is completely ignoring FA (and the other votes too) and focusing only on tool. What do you make of this discrepancy?

[davesaz]

I would also point out that CN has totally avoided my vote. He engaged tool (who had not even voted him at that time either) but said nothing about my read on him. No reaction on tool's vote either though it has only been just under 24hrs so he may not have had the chance.

It was predictable. Was that what you wanted?

You mean that when you post like scum it is predictable that people vote you for it? No, that is not 'what I wanted' but at this point it is clear that you wish to avoid any discussion about your posting.

This is a good lynch.

Putting words into other's mouths. I heard this was all the rage with mafiascum townies nowadays.

If your conviction is strong on CN then at least use a non-fallacious way to rally a lynch mob, it's just slightly harder and CN has done a lot of the work for you.

I didn't put any words into his mouth - I interpreted his empty and pointless responses that have done nothing more than avoid any discussion. I highlighted this reality. I don't really care if you like it or not.

Gotta call this one how I see it. Some townies (like me for example) would reply to 332 with a question like "how was it predictable?". If CN had a valid point, making it as a question prompts discussion, where the way you replied to it cuts that off pretty well. I'm not saying he's going to have some gem to come back with, in fact it might even give him more rope.

[davesaz]

I don't think he's playing to wincon regardless of alignment.
If the current situation continued it might become force-replace worthy. That's just my opinion.

[davesaz]

"Free of responsibility" is the kind of wording you would use when indicating that you would be in trouble. Which implies that moosy would be flipping town, no?

Responsibility boils down to, at the flip, whatever his alignment is, the people on the wagon will typically answer to it. The general idea being that whoever votes for the person being lynched has a higher chance of being scum because a) they're bussing for town cred, or b) they're aiding in a mislynch. You should know that. You do know that.

I still don't quite understand this. Someone not voting on the lynch could be held responsible for ignoring the wagon, even if it was on either town or scum. I mean, you might as well not play if you want to be completely free of this kind of "responsibility"!

Yes, I also found the fallacy very quickly. But is taking this position alignment indicative?

[davesaz]

3 days till deadline, with many people going to be V/LA either stated or not.

[davesaz]

Reviewed CN iso. Nothing but a weak push on Moosy and calling out toolenduso for defending moosy + pushing CN while ignoring the other people who had voted for him.

[davesaz]

Reviewing FA-Q2 ISO. The only thing I saw that was at all scummy was one I pointed out already, where a question would have been a better response to the "it's inevitable" post.
I'd say more town than scum. Here are some examples with my thoughts.

Spoiler: examples

That makes no sense. Scum can make up reasons just as easily as town could, and they'll often look better because they're paying attention to how people read them.

Placement of the votes and motivation matter a hundred times more than reason.

I don't like this post one bit.

You cast doubt on Dave's statement but fail to complete your statement. If placement mattered so much more then why did you not bother to address those that jumped on where you consider scummy placement? I would also state you are completely incorrect. Placement matters but scum can just as easily manipulate that as they can come up with reasoning. Reasoning is a powerful tool for town - as the game rolls on scum tend to reveal themselves with inconsistent reasoning and in the motivations behind those reasons.

Calls out CN for casting doubt on my assertion that "reasons" is townier than "no reasons" but not following through with the thought that placement matters.

bored with my current vote so

VOTE: davesaz

Is that your only reason to change votes?

What do you man by 'feelings' for dave? I don't really see where dave has been scummy.

Scum are more likely to let a meaningless vote slide, where town are more likely to question it. Though it would not be impossible for scum wanting to look town to make a post like this.

I'm sorry I'm not in logical mode right now!

not

I really just have no idea what I'm doing in this game anymore except kind of flailing.

Another attempt at reads incoming.

Not really liking these posts. Syndesis votes me and then places some reasoning for that vote. The instant that it is pointed out that the reasoning is rather vapid, they run from those statements. It feels very appeasey to me in general.

Scum tend to not make a big deal of it when they are unvoted. Town tend to question it more because they want to distinguish the scum voting them from the town voting them.

[davesaz]

What's your preferred wagon, then?

I'm reading back in. First the people who have votes, then selected others.

Looking next at toolenduso, I didn't really have an opinion until he tried to push me for casting doubt. That whole exchange seems very townie to me. He went into a lot more detail than I'd expect from scum, and stuck with it when I came back strong. I would have expected scum to break off when I said I understood his push but disagreed, and would also have expected a stronger reaction to the soft "maybe you're scum for still pushing". Then he looks into background and comes around on his own, where scum would have let it die down and keep the justification for a future mislynch attempt.

The later analysis of CN is pretty strong. I think I probably agreed with it the first time I read it. Having some doubts on FA (who had earlier started pushing CN for the same things, but weaker push) is also a town mindset. Can't dismiss that angle, scum might indeed push weakly on their partner and it might look just like FA's push. And I can certainly imagine a scum partner not wanting their push to be forgotten lest they lose the town cred, so FA bringing up that CN focused only on toolenduso's push is also a scumtell.

Having reread the 3 people with more than one vote, I'm getting a strong town on toolenduso, weak scum on FA, strong scum on CN.

VOTE: Chaotic Neutrality

To answer another previous question, we needed 4 more votes, with me it's 3.

Previous reads included a medium town on Hawk and a WTF on Moosy. The rest would take more rereading, and we're unlikely to swing a lynch on anyone else today anyway.

[davesaz]

Note, my read on FA changed between my two posts, because one of toolenduso's posts had analysis on FA that I had not considered.

[davesaz]

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?
This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

[davesaz]

I assume you didn't read 431 despite it just being an hour ago?

[davesaz]

Hmm, I'm having a problem finding your initial reason for scum reading Metrion.

[davesaz]

@MOD VC please

[davesaz]

The depth of analysis in 477 leads me to believe it comes from town. While scum can and often do put in that much effort, especially overnight, they don't tend to be that concrete.

pedit: lots of posting while I read the manifesto.

[davesaz]

that's worth looking at deeper but not tonight

[davesaz]

FA, I understand your logic but as I know I am not scum I am asking you to look at other people who were unwilling or hesitating to lynch CN.

What's your current read of FA?

[davesaz]

<formatted for clarity>

Her push on me was manufactured. I think her 'case' was contrived to push her partners counter wagon as it was a real possibility that I was going to be lynched instead.

She soft defended CN and really avoided taking a hard stance on him.

Please point out the specific things you saw as manufactured, and where she soft defended.

[davesaz]

Getting ready to eat snacks and play board games. I may or may not have time to look at the game.

[davesaz]

VOTE: iraonavp

^^ For now.

It would really help a lot if you would say why.

[davesaz]

Reread notes:

-Tool looks town in light of the ire CN directs towards him.
-End of lolbabe's 371 ("Oh wow, Dave is scum.") sounds slightly contrived, though that might just be me picking up on irrelevant syntax.
-

@ira, 372

: Could you clarify? Why would scum reach to defend, especially to defend town?
-Ira and lolbabe are the main people countering the CN wagon.
-Soap is also driving a counterwagon on me, but it's not a particularly promising one, so I don't think it's a "save my partner!!" counterwagon.
-Dunno how to feel about his abrupt vote hop in 399, though.
-Davesaz's indecision in 427-428 basically resembles my state of mind at the time. Not really sure how to read it; could go either way.
-450 is interesting and I'm not sure why.
-Is 467 consistent with "you accidentally hammered my partner"?

Thread is a bit slow, isn't it?

Re: lolbabe's 371 that might have been right after I told Moosy to play to wincon. Unless that was a bit later, haven't looked... Regardless of when it happened, did you follow the discussion that it generated?

When I look at the ira posts you refer to, I'm reminded of how scummy they looked in the moment. The main reason I was asking ira about his Metrion read was to determine if there was substance to it or if it could be a distancing read, or perhaps the kind of soft foundation read that scum use to look like they are scumhunting without making any waves.

[davesaz]

Woops sorry about that.

With swords dead I ran out of scum reads so I've been reading ISO's more. davesaz seems more scummy the more I look at him

1) He's literally only voted twice
2) Most of his posts are just questions and not much else
3) When he actually goes into any real analysis, it's generally when he's defending himself or something he's said with the CN wagon being the exception
4) His vote on CN is very likely to be bussing scum I feel. 427 is a very brief explanation of CN's scumminess, and then 428 and 431 are going into why the people

on CN's wagon are town

, which seems rather, appeasy, for lack of a better word

VOTE: davesaz

To properly read 431 you need to pay attention to the VC in post 425. I say in 431 that I'm doing re-reads of the players with votes. That most of those players (other than CN) happened to be voting CN at the time is coincidence.

To properly read my question style you have to think of what answers to the questions might reveal. In particular look at the questions to ira about his Metrion read.

[davesaz]

When I look at the ira posts you refer to, I'm reminded of how scummy they looked in the moment. The main reason I was asking ira about his Metrion read was to determine if there was substance to it or if it could be a distancing read, or perhaps the kind of soft foundation read that scum use to look like they are scumhunting without making any waves.

Err, which post are you referring to? >___>

I'll assume you are asking where I was asking ira? 466

[davesaz]

I realize it's still new years weekend and all, but we need to pick it up.

VOTE: iraonavp

[davesaz]

Typo. 446

[davesaz]

VOTE: iraonavp

^^ For now.

It would really help a lot if you would say why.

See? This is very convenient. I form a wagon with zero reasoning and no one points me out on it.

Not exactly. I believe you're 2nd on that wagon, and you do have an outstanding question on why.

[davesaz]

What do you think of iraonavp though? Moosy made other points besides the claim one.

[davesaz]

I reviewed his posts, saw they were scummy, and voted him a long time ago.

[davesaz]

I'm having trouble remembering why folks think Metrion is scum.

[davesaz]

VC please

[davesaz]

What else is going to happen that's likely to change things? Is there someone else you'd like to see pushed?

[davesaz]

toolenduso, Syndesis, MoosyDoosy

FA_Q2, raskolnikov, Soapbar, TheCow

Metrion
iraonavp

[davesaz]

Sure, I'll be helpful. There's this...

I feel that Moosy's sarcastic posts and self-votes are more likely to come from a town-aligned player frustrated with accusations leveled at them. I simply do not see a scum-aligned player placing a vote on themselves or playing so... suicidally. While I do not think that this is a beneficial outlet or good play, I do not think it is worth lynching them simply to make them change their behavior.

[davesaz]

Being stuck for so long isn't helping us find the scum.
VOTE: Metrion

[davesaz]

Not replacing Moosy...

Burning_Earth replaces TheCow effective immediately.

[davesaz]

I haven't voted Moosy yet because I haven't had a chance to ISO anyone and look in depth at my reads, they're very surface level. But it should be obvious if he gets lynched that I was one of the main people pushing that wagon - I'm not going to magically be free of responsibility when he flips just because I wasn't voting him.

Infact if he flips scum I'm sure someone (you) is going to argue I was bussing. Kinda screwed either way.

He's scummy and it's not his play style that I take issue with.

I think Moosy is probably scum due to this.

This is potentially helpful if we have trouble finding the last scum.

[davesaz]

If my lynch is a lurker lynch fuck you guys

No, I'm not on your slot for lurking. I'm on it for being actively scummy.

[davesaz]

The fact that despite not trying to catch up and beg for extentions I am trying to scumhunt

Said scumhunting can be found where?

[davesaz]

Flubbernugget replaces Metrion effective immediately. Please welcome them!

Hi Flubbernugget make a post so I can make you L-1 and force a claim from you.

Why you need to wait for me to post makes no sense

If you wanted pressure you should have just put me at l1

So posture points there.

I tend not to read threads I replace into. Did I miss any claims or significant events?

Pedit I was about to snipe the shit out of that page top but once I saw the double bump I lost count

The fact that despite not trying to catch up and beg for extentions I am trying to scumhunt

Said scumhunting can be found where?

676

695

697

705

Those look like responses to pressure on you / your slot. How are those posts going to help find scum?

[davesaz]

@iraonavp: Nice story but completely wrong. My preferred lynch was you, but I thought Metrion was scum. Hindsight shows it wasn't so, but that does not change what I thought.
Someone enticed me off you onto him. That looks to be a good place to go for answers.

[davesaz]

I'd like to know that one too. And on top of that I'd like to know what case they have, if any.

[davesaz]

davesaz

, who's scum?

Two out of Soapbar, Raskolnikov, Cow slot. If only one in that set then the other is most likely Moosy. I'm having a really hard time getting any traction.

[davesaz]

What is a soul read supposed to mean? Where's the glimpse of towniness from Soap?

[davesaz]

That was in response to 824. I didn't notice there was a whole new page.

[davesaz]

Are you referring to more than just me and FA_Q2 here, and if so, who? I got the feeling that the scum were supporting either my or Metrion's lynch and were willing to switch momentum at the slightest whim.

Metrion was your scum read. You are using hindsight to say scum were pushing him or you, projecting his flip onto yourself.

[davesaz]

A soulread is like a gut read but

deeper

Glimpse of towniness is 767 but even looking at it now I'm not sure it's something I can townread.

How did you get a read of any kind on cow?

[davesaz]

@Thestatusquo, what do you think of dave's mechanical posting in general? Town or scum?

What do you mean by mechanical? Do you perhaps mean logical?

[davesaz]

I feel the need to respond to a mischaracterization of my posting.

[davesaz]

What do you think?

[davesaz]

And why was correcting this phantom mischaracterization more important to you than hearing my answer to the question?

What do you think?

Umm, that was an invitation for you to answer the question that you thought I didn't care about the answer to. As in, what do you think???

In answer to your question, finding the cause of and correcting misconceptions is often the most important thing.

[davesaz]

Seriously?

[davesaz]

Would you care to state an opinion on whether Moosy's characterization of my posting is accurate?

[davesaz]

How did you get a read of any kind on cow?

His hawk-related actions.

How 'bout them replacements? Still keeping that read?

[davesaz]

I'd like to see some reads from the current resident.

[davesaz]

What's your read on TSQ?

The last couple of pages were bugging me. I don't respond well to hostility, and I thought my question to Moosy was very on point.
The earlier stuff is OK.

[davesaz]

still working on reads (haven't had as much time as I'd hoped to read people's ISO's) but from intial readings TSQ seems pretty townie. I don't like davesaz's reaction to Moosey's comment tho. Something about it is pretty offputting but I can't exactly put my finger on it

How should someone react when their posting is called mechanical?

Since nobody else sees fit to comment on it, "mechanical" is the kind of BS that scum like to sling when they are trying to find a mislynch that town will go along with.

[davesaz]

but VOTE: FA_Q2 since I'm pretty sure Ira is town

Can you help me find the previous places that you've mentioned FA_Q2?

[davesaz]

@MOD: V/LA Friday afternoon through Sunday around noon, MST (UTC-7)

[davesaz]

That seems rather appeasy, but it can wait.

VOTE: Raskolnikov

[davesaz]

Do people even read what I write?

[davesaz]

davesaz

, who's scum?

Two out of Soapbar, Raskolnikov, Cow slot. If only one in that set then the other is most likely Moosy. I'm having a really hard time getting any traction.

^^ scum read, duh

[davesaz]

The two people I would most like to lynch today are both on the same wagon! Coincidence?

And those two would be?

[davesaz]

I'm back from the mountain but walking on snow took a lot out of me.

[davesaz]

927 Unofficial vc has a mistake is all.

RC needs to get in here and post so that we can sort that slot for real.

[davesaz]

Sure, my body of work might seem like I'm playing a bit guarded, but anyone who has seen me before should know right away it's not my scum game.
If we had some actual leads on scum, like a guilty or something, it would be much easier to solve this thing.
Even some kind of proof who isn't scum would help a lot.

[davesaz]

Why are you scumreading Ras? What catalyzed your vote?

Outstanding question for

dave

!

Of the 3 people with 2 votes at the time I saw him as scummiest.

I'm town. Pull your heads out of your asses or lose, it's as simple as that.
If you don't like Ras for a lynch then push someone other than me and I'll happily join in.
And I

really

need to find someone I'm confident is town. So far, not happening. Really sad. Literally, the way you're all bouncing along like jumping beans, scum could be anyone.

[davesaz]

Why are you scumreading Ras? What catalyzed your vote?

Outstanding question for

dave

!

Of the 3 people with 2 votes at the time I saw him as scummiest.

Gut. I don't really have a reason. Scum would

make up something

. I

never

do that as town. If I get stuck in a game where I don't have solid reads on people I go with gut and it's right more often than not.

Get off my back and lynch someone, we have a little over a day left.

[davesaz]

@

Dave

: why did you choose an already developed wagon?

Are you being dense on purpose? Because

I do not want a no lynch

[davesaz]

TBH the whole doubtcast everything approach is one of the reasons I can't even commit to a Syndesis townread.

[davesaz]

You're not gonna lynch me. I have more important things to do.

[davesaz]

Sure, my

body

of work might seem like I'm playing a bit

guard

ed, but anyone who has seen me before should know right away it's not my scum game.
If we had some actual leads on scum, like a guilty or something, it would be much easier to solve this thing.
Even some kind of proof who isn't scum would help a lot.

Crumb.

[davesaz]

I don't have a flippin clue who is scum. My entire purpose in life has been to identify a PR so that I could save him/her.
My read on you is inconsistent because

your play is inconsistent

. And that goes for damn near everyone this game.
I don't remember seeing a town this messed up in a single previous game on this site.

[davesaz]

I'm gonna be very upset with RC if his "soap is scum" was a guilty. Hard to tell with a JOAT when the composite roles aren't flipped.

[davesaz]

My claim is not fake. If town decide to lynch me they deserve to lose.

[davesaz]

If scum no-kills we lynch you.

[davesaz]

Actually since Soapbar has to be scum according to that analysis + the way that RC acted.

VOTE: Soapbar
Town wins.

[davesaz]

what is dave doing

Dave is winning this game for town since none of the other townies seem capable of doing so.

[davesaz]

Q: why not save hawk
A: because you expect a cop and save it for the higher value pr

[davesaz]

not to mention I guessed correctly that it was fake in the first place

[davesaz]

None, because no pr (other than hawk) had claimed.
I chose not to bg hawk because i wanted to save it for a cop.
Once again, density is amazing.

[davesaz]

It is optimum play.

[davesaz]

Who are your three? If one of them is me, then it's already won by lynching one of the others.

[davesaz]

Did Soapbar claim something?

[davesaz]

Cop enabler is a scum role.

[davesaz]

you avoided the question.

I have never seen town dave avoid a topic so damn thoroughly. I don't really see why you are resistant to the idea if a no lynch anyway - you are the only one that is going to get lynched today.

I will repeat, lynching me is one of the few ways that town can lose this game. I'm gonna probably take a bullet for the cop, who

should

investigate someone else to get a firm guilty.
You haven't seen me so thoroughly pissed off at a town before. If I tried to telegraph my alignment any harder it might cross over into trust tell territory. What scum says they have

no

town reads?
RC probably knew something and we could have probably lynched scum yesterday. I can get playing scummy so as not to get NK'd, but that slot took it too far.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
Still think it's a scum role, but lynching it is worse than keeping it.

[davesaz]

I don't know what you think I'm avoiding.
I am a bodyguard. I save the cop tonight, the cop gets a result, town wins.
I don't save the cop, town is much more likely to lose.
How is that not obvious?

[davesaz]

Or town can not trust me, lynch me, and lose immediately. Your choice.

[davesaz]

Either put up or shut up. I'm done listening to how I'm big bad scum. Either lynch me or shut the fuck up. I'd vote myself right now if playing against wincon weren't ban worthy.

[davesaz]

Assuming that mafia don't have a roleblock -- but if they do then we're probably lost anyway.

[davesaz]

I don't know what you think I'm avoiding.

FA is asking why it is optimal to no action as BG.

If a BG is going to die, better to die saving a cop. It's like a 1-shot role where timing matters.
I'm asserting that waiting for the cop to reveal is optimal.
There are more good outcomes for town from waiting than from not waiting. Granted it takes combinatoric logic to be able to know it offhand without writing them all down.

Pedit: I mention the possibility because you're deciding guilt (and therefore whether town wins or loses) based on an outcome which is not 100%.
That's another thing I do as town. I never say something is either 100% or 0%. There is

always

a chance a theory is wrong. The only guaranteed flip is one written by a mod in a non-bastard game.

[davesaz]

Cop enabler is a scum role.

probably relevant

I was an

unaware

cop enabler

in that game. Big difference.

[davesaz]

I have also been in a game with a mafia aware cop enabler.

[davesaz]

Note, you have to find my flip in that game in order to get the unaware part, and then it's in a spoiler. I was just as surprised as everyone else.

[davesaz]

BTW, that STFU a few pages ago was an order. Follow it or I'll go ahead and risk that ban.

[davesaz]

EBWOP posts ago. I'm angry.

[davesaz]

An aware cop enabler knows there is a cop, or at least can make a reasonable assumption that there is one.
That does not "feel" right for a town role. I would, and do, assume that it's a way to balance cop vs mafia by taking away the cop if you're unlucky to get the "wrong" guilty first. It reduces cop to something more than 1-shot but less than full.
Could it be aware and town? I guess so -- to say otherwise would not be true to myself given I just got through saying nothing is 100%.
Balance wise, a town cop enabler is a huge bonus for mafia because they get a chance to nerf the cop from either a lucky NK or a lucky mislynch, and don't take a loss themselves.

Am I 100% sure it's scum? Absolutely not! But I'd say it's definitely enough to bet on. At least as good as a pair of 10's before the flop.

I already thought Soapbar was scum.
RC showed up and laid down a "soap is scum", no discussion. Seeing the JOAT flip I'd be willing to bet that rolecop was one of the contained roles. I came right out and said at top of day that I'll be upset if RC failed to pass on info.

[davesaz]

^ does anyone else see the obvious scum?

[davesaz]

Alright. If Soapbar is a scum cop enabler, do you think this has implications in terms of associatives?

I'm more than 80% sure it's soap & ira.

[davesaz]

Carefully read 1217, in particular the last paragraph.
Consider the list of all possible roles in a mafia game.
No, I'm not 100% sure. I have no problem at all reconciling the stated results with the possibility that they are truly the results from the mod but nevertheless incorrect.
This is yet another town tell from me.

[davesaz]

VOTE: no lynch

[davesaz]

And I can't see town seeing me as scum. Everything I have done is textbook town play. Except for being duped into changing my vote to Metrion, but it's no crime to be wrong occasionally.

Having more than two of you scum reading me is another reason I'm less than 100% confident in the cop reads.
Who says we even have one? I mean yeah, I'm holding out to save a cop (and I stand by that being the 100% correct

game theory

move), but that could just be wishful thinking.
I think the cop is real, and I'm betting the game on it being real, but y'all are giving me serious doubts in the innocent results.

[davesaz]

It is clearly best for scum to face TSQ + me + unknown vs TSQ + Syndesis + unknown.

The only way I'm going to be able to tell town from scum is that my supporter(s) are town. Unless everyone supports me, I will

immediately

vote whomever votes / scum reads me. That may throw the game, but I'm definitely town and the only way town is going to win is by town reading me.

If you are town and you vote me, town immediately loses. Period, not subject to discussion.

[davesaz]

Excuse me, but lynching me does throw the game. We're in LYLO.
Your result is probably on a godfather, unless you are mafia yourself. But at least you've told me who one of the scum are.
VOTE: soapbar

[davesaz]

^ scum two.
I've said my piece. Town either believes me or loses.

[davesaz]

Let's get this over with sooner rather than later. I need to see either a win or get to post a big see I told you so.

[davesaz]

Scum are dave and soapbar unless there is some serious bastard modding going on.

FA and iraon are innocent.

So fuck it, I'm not interested in waiting around hand wringing. I have an innocent on two other players in this lylo and I am not even remotely a fan of dave threatening the town like that.

vote: dave

If that's wrong then its wrong, but its got more chance to be right than anything else.

Who did you target last night, and why?

[davesaz]

Not protecting hawk was the right thing to do for town. I'm a Ph.D. + equivalent in CompSci. More than 40 US patents. More good outcomes for town than bad from that action, provable via some fairly extensive math which I won't bore you with here. Continuing to bleat about it is one of the things that makes me think you're scum.

By POE, there is a godfather. Scum are Soap and one of either FA_Q2 or iraonavp. I'm leaning ira for obvious reasons.
We're lynching Soapbar.

[davesaz]

Scum are dave and soapbar unless there is some serious bastard modding going on.

FA and iraon are innocent.

So fuck it, I'm not interested in waiting around hand wringing. I have an innocent on two other players in this lylo and I am not even remotely a fan of dave threatening the town like that.

vote: dave

If that's wrong then its wrong, but its got more chance to be right than anything else.

Who did you target last night, and why?

you're not so good at reading, huh?

Your post gives two innos but does not say who you copped.
I'm very good at reading your most recent post, which is all I'm reading.
Who did you cop

last night

, and why.
Pull your head out your ass, or I'm assuming you're mafia.

[davesaz]

I'm coming back in an hour and voting TSQ if nothing has changed.

[davesaz]

lol dave has patented mafia.

No, mafia is not patentable. I work on things a bit more important than that.
My statements about RL are always truthful btw. I do have the RL math background that I say I do, and I am certain that the specific action (not "saving" hawk by throwing myself in front of that particular bullet) was better for town. And that is the closest thing to an actual "case" against me.

[davesaz]

Great, nobody is here. I guess I'll have to wait for a reply.

In thinking about possible scum teams, TSQ + Soap is a really appealing one. Soap fake claims the cop enabler to reinforce the idea that there is a cop, and TSQ fake claims cop and gives innos on people they can't lynch setting up me vs Soap. Worst case they kill FA get TSQ vs Ira+Me, Ira votes me (and to be truthful if I hadn't been thinking the cop sounds potentially fake I'd automatically vote Ira) and game is won for scum.

[davesaz]

My strategy of saving it for the end worked perfectly, and if either Soapbar or me had been copped instead of iraonavp then we might have still pulled it off.
I was being totally honest pre-massclaim -- I had no strong town reads this game until the last 2 days.
I actually called the scum team really early. But there was enough resistance, and the other town couldn't see it.

If there were a scummy category for most messed up town, this is a game I'd nominate.

I loathe yelling at people but I had to try it. We were probably toast anyway after getting an inno on the godfather. No offense was intended. But it was true.

Mafia made a brilliant choice killing Syndesis instead of TSQ->me. That left them with just enough lynchbait.

[davesaz]

If you had actually claimed something, then I would have BG'd.
And sorry, but you're not that great that I'm willing to swap myself for you.
I actually did solve this game, and town listened to the snakes instead of the truth.

[davesaz]

Good luck with that. Knowingly voting town because you're pissed off at them is not playing to win condition either.

[davesaz]

Actually scratch the either at the end of that sentence. I did absolutely nothing wrong.

[davesaz]

Nope, mathematically perfect game.

[davesaz]

If you had claimed, I would have bodyguarded.
As it was, what we had was you replacing into a slot I thought was likely scum. Your contribution for the day was not stunning.

The problem this game was that the other town did not do what they should have.
I will agree that it was a mistake to place faith in the other town players to actually read what I was writing and what the scum were saying about me.
I've said this in another postgame, too few players on this site expect the truth from town. When they are faced with it they don't know how to believe it.