Blitz 21 - Hope plus One ―kibou― [End]

[RadiantCowbells]

Basically Ranger was a god and scum had no chance versus her.

I think that summarizes this game from the point where she started kicking things into gear.

[Ranger]

sorry things ended up swinging so hard in our favour because of claims.

Eh, I think the game was a town win anyway: Antihero was obviously town, Wisdom was obviously town, you were obviously town, and I think I did a good job being town even before the hiplop push. The only players not so town were the doctors, yes, but Scatterplot was still looking town even without a claim, and to

other

people (even if not me) Ankamius looked town. Both of them were getting hard-defended by town players, and the hiplop townread was stale.

RC - I thought Anti's D2 opening post was a guilty on Sakura, so I pretended I had the guilty to draw the nightkill. Of course that went great...

I knew you were a VT faking cop, but that might have been because I was a VT faking cop.

i'd nth whoever noms her for rising star or paragon or whatever

I already nommed Ranger.

<3
I don't think I'd be a good candidate for rising star; that award seems to imply I'm good as both alignments yet my scum game is nothing remarkable. (I also have five years of off-site experience, so I'm not exactly new. Just new here.) I do feel like I have a shot at paragon, though I still make mistakes, like my Ankamius push.

Sure, there was the wrongly assumed inno on Ank that probably got her to reevaluate, but still.

Nah, I didn't even realize Spiffeh was a cop, nor Spiffeh's results. They had to be pointed out to me. It was me correctly guessing Ankamius's role off of incorrect 'crumbs. Same principle, though. I

did

drop the push off of role-related reasons.

[Ankamius]

What was your case on me either way? Chances are it was based on playstyle stuff or things I put there on purpose, but I can go into it more now that I don't have any reason to hide my 'lies'.

[Spiffeh]

You're all welcome for carrying the game

[Cheetory6]

Thanks spiff. Thanks for dying and making the game harder. ;D

[Ranger]

What was your case on me either way?

Gorkington said it best: your pushes felt very wooden and stiff, giving off the impression of being insincere. There were also many times you took stances that felt "convenient" to take, like when you called Firebringer-Expedience both town. You have to admit, given Firebringer as scum and Expedience as my unflipped (but correct) third scumread, seeing things like that easily can give the impression of you being their scumbuddy.

Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high.

Ranger's been town in most of them.

I lol'd.
Thank you. <3

I love the blitz game format, since it's the format I started playing mafia on.

[Plotinus]

<3

[Ankamius]

Yeah, content was what I was masking this game. The vast majority of it was just being very blunt about my reads and not pushing out my reasoning when I normally would have. I actually didn't have any particular reason for 1-2 reads that I had early on either, which is how it kind of snowballed into my view of the game becoming so fucked up day one.

So the biggest reason my pushes sucked so much is because I was basing like 90% of it on nothing, basically.

[Ankamius]

I lied about my trajectory on the Sakura read too. I was legit starting to townread her towards the end of day one. Firebringer flipping town made me completely delete that from my mind for whatever reason.

Actually, the Firebringer scumflip did more to fuck me up this game than anything else.

[Ranger]

there was a micro game me and Spiffeh had with her where me and bork were scum and we obliterated the entire town. IT CAN BE DONE

That was actually my first-completed game on-site for what it's worth, and the game I started second. (The first game I started was the previously-mentioned open. But by the time it was late-D2, when my reads improved there, I had already completed many games I had started later, most notably, Suikoden.)

I do sometimes worry that people are going to burden-of-proficiency me in the future, when it's incredibly random when (if at all) I name the scum. Sometimes, I'll have it on D1, other times, not until lylo. It's happened to me before, on my home site, where the same expectation grew of me to catch scum on D1, which I couldn't always do. That's one reason I love listing: I can give reads but not be expected to explain much. If people follow, they follow; if they don't, they don't.

[Cheetory6]

Sorry for misreading you ank apparently I'm good at finding doc q.q

[Ankamius]

dw I'm like that a lot too. I get so apathetic in a lot of town games and don't really get anywhere, but the few games I get really dug into the game are the ones that prevent me from being demoted to VI status.

[Ankamius]

Sorry for misreading you ank apparently I'm good at finding doc q.q

The only person in this game I expected to townread me this game was Antihero. Fooling everyone else was the point

[Plotinus]

I thought your play would be really ballsy if you were scum because your reads were counter to most people's reads and you were pretty fearless about not going along with the crowd. I was townreading you for that until I got paranoid of you.

[Ankamius]

That's most likely a town trait. I'll still go against the crowd as scum, but I'm more careful about it.

[Expedience]

scum PT will be up as soon as Expedience arrives and confirms he has no issue releasing it

Releasing it is fine.

I thought we were doing okay until Ranger decided to vote hiplop, that indeed probably won the game for town. It was surprising how efficient that lynch was, before then there were a lot of disagreements and we could easily hide in the noise.

I found this game difficult to be involved in because of how fast everything moved. My stances were bad not because I was newbtown, but because I was scum and had little capacity to make convincing reads through all the posts, so I guess this kinda worked??

[pieguyn]

kk mafia PT is up

[Cheetory6]

he copped ankamius for sure

get wrecked wis.
c:

[Ether]

So I was waiting for Expedience to claim doctor, I admit. Ankamius and we were going to be tough for him to get through, but at least there was a time when we were lynchable. Ranger and Gorkington were never on the table.

And then I was going to hit him with NUMBERS. Assuming random kills and random protections among the vanillas, there'd be a 62.5% chance of one of us getting a protection in between Night 4 and Night 5, setting the game back to odds with an extra lynch and forcing a win anyway.

(There's a strategy that raises that to a 77.78% chance of forcing a win, by the way. But I'm going to leave that one as a puzzle. Good night!)

-Ether

Two weeks later:

SO ACTUALLY the real odds are 58.33% (7/12) and 72.22% (13/18). Sorry, I know I'm the only person who is bothered by this, but I couldn't let bad math stand. Carry on!

[Plotinus]

<3

[pieguyn]

I'm curious what the 72% solution is. I feel like I could figure it out but I'm lazy. ww

[Ether]

Spoiler: The math behind the 58.33%

Okay, so assume random kills and random protections, which is probably optimal anyway. The people who can be killed on Night 4 are:
{Antihero, Gorkington, Ranger, Wisdom}

There's a 3/8ths chance the town makes a protection successfully. That's a 1/4th chance Scatterplot protects the right person, minus the 1/16 chance Ankamius also tries to protect him or her. And then the reverse is also true for Ankamius.

(1/4 - 1/16) + (1/4 - 1/16)
= 3/16 + 3/16
= 3/8

(The mistake I made before was only subtracting 1/16 once. It's true that there's a 1/16 chance that any given person would be protected twice, but that chance affects both doctors.)

So that's Night 4. On to Night 5!

If the kill fails, town gets an extra lynch and can force a win. If it goes through, which happens 5/8ths of the time, assume a doctor gets lynched. Then there's 1 doctor left for Night 5 and 3 confirmed vanillas, so that's a 1/3 chance of a successful protection.

3/8 + (5/8 * 1/3)
= 9/24 + 5/24
= 7/12, or 58.33% chance of a forced town win

Spoiler: Hint

The town only needs to have three lynches if the scum can survive the first two.

Spoiler: Hint #2

If the town doesn't get any protections in, only one claimed doctor will be left standing at the end. Focus on how to make that player's life harder, because if they're town, you've already won anyway.

(I'll give a straight answer later!)

[Ether]

Well, for the sake of completeness:

Spoiler: Solution

Decide beforehand which doctor survives the two lynches, and make them claim their protection targets beforehand. If they're scum, the two real doctors now have a smaller pool to work with. If they're town, the odds of a successful protection drop to 33% for Night 4 and 0% for Night 5, but the last scum still gets lynched, so it's a moot point.

[AniX]

Last Post