Micro 590: RETURN OF THE CARD CZAR [GAME OVER]

[Ircher]

I like the FS wagon for starting with a dayvig:

VOTE: FireStarter (Wait, is that L-1?)

Just saying, I rolled what I wanted.

[Ircher]

I dropped VT totally cuz that's what I keep rolling. It makes night boring. Was really hoping for neighbor or something like that though

[Ircher]

Its called RVS for a reason

Real FOS of Fire

[Ircher]

{Fire Starter, Persivul}
{lane, Lowell}
{Aristophanes}
{SarasaKat, Ircher}
{BlueTrin}

@Ranger
Explain your sudden scumread of me.

Considering the DayVig thing was an obvious joke, it should be quite obvious that my initial vote of FS was RVS (though it's serious now cuz of the weird reaction I got).

@Blue
I bet you're lying.

[Ircher]

Please explain the votes on me.

[Ircher]

Okay, so my notes so far:

Spoiler: Mini -- Game Notes

1. In 23, Fire Starter claims he is the "most towniest" player right now cuz he discarded Werewolf Bus Driver...... -

I think this is a completely invalid argument. Right now, discards mean almost nothing. I told you why I discarded VT --> Cuz I didn't want to be VT again. Just an fyi: I drew 3 town, and 2 scum roles. I discarded a town role and had a 50-50 shot at being town or Werewolf. Just cuz you discarded a Werewolf role doesn't make a difference. It could be possible you drew 5 scum cards, we don't know. The fact that you use it to make yourself look towny really alarms me. -

Scum-Indicative

2. In 28, Blue expresses basically what I said above about Fire & trying to use the discards for alignment reasons. -

Null-Town Indicative

3. I vote FS in 38 -

First, that's the third vote. Second, I should get town points for actually asking if it was L-1, apparently FS disagrees completely with me on that point. Third of all, it was an obvious RVS vote about another RVS thing that occurred. Not everyone can be there right from the start, so I seriously dislike how FS wants to put that as alignment indicative; more on that later.

4. In 42, Fire calls me out for my RVS vote. Then in 51/52, he paints it as a scum move. -

Let's start with the fact that we were not really out of RVS. Talking about discards does about as much good as RVS does. Also, just cuz someone has school or work when  game begins should not mean that that person isn't allowed to have any fun at the beginning.

Now, even if we were out of RVS, there was no real harm to my vote, as I knew it wasn't a hammer. If someone were to quicklynch that, then that person would definitely get lynched the next day. In addition, my vote was clearly an Rvs vote that I can't believe someone would come to the conclusion it isn't. Just cuz I'm newer does not mean I'm an idiot as you have seemed to imply. (You may ask, when did you imply that? You did when you asked if it was an RVS vote or not -- If you had a true dayvig ability, you wouldn't use it so quickly. So, by thinking it was a serious vote, you imply that I am not smart enough to realize the dayvig was a joke.)

Last of all, in 51, you claim I put you at L-1. Not true. I wanted to make sure, hence the parenthesis, but I was pretty sure it wasn't L-1. People don't lynch early wagons unless they want to get lynched the next day, so your concern seems fake. Finally, Blue has by this poit verified it was not L-1, so your point isn't even remotely valid anymore.

This is you trying to generate a mislynch on me. And I don't appreciate it at all. But, you should know that it isn't that easy to mislynch me; you are going to have to try harder if you truly think I'm scum. I have a meta and it's in my sig; go check it out if you want to see if I'm telling the truth -- Scum always see me as an easy ML target D1. -

Very Scum Indicative

5. In 46, Blue claims hated. -

Later, I state I bet he's lying. This will prob. look like an excuse made after the fact, but I made that statement mainly as a reaction test. It also serves another purpose, but now is not the time to explain...... Nonetheless, scum imo, would have more reason to state that than town. But, I kinda understand why, so

Null-Indicative

6.

In response to 54 by Blue: Those are two very reasonable reasons, but neither of them are correct. Can you think of a third reason? (Oh, and if you do, pls don't tell everyone, I think you may understand if you get what I am hinting at).

7. Quoting 55 - ""@Ircher Just flat out saying 'welp your lying' ....." by Sara -

And now, so we are clear, I quote my words from 50: "@Blue I bet you're lying". There is a subtle difference between what you have said I said and what I really said. Betting on something, while it does mean you believe strongly in it, is not a flat out stating it is true. It is imo like an FoS --- Just cuz you suspect someone does not automatically mean you are sure they are scum. Do you see the difference. I have no personally problem with your slight misrep, but I thought I might clarify, as what you quote me as stating is a bit misleading. -

Null-Indicative

8.

@Blue -- Its partially a reaction test (56, but that is not what I'm hinting at. I do like your reaction -- pretty calm and wanting to know the reasons behind it rather than just immediately pointing and saying "That's scum". -

Null-Town-Indicative

9.

Starting as of now, people should start giving better reasons for their reads. I'm looking esp. at you, Ranger, alll you posted is readlists with zero explanations.

10.

@FS - In response to 70, which questions?

11. Lowell naked votes me in 84 -

Explain.

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher  (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)
Blue (90%) - Seems calm, I also got a good reaction out of the reaction test.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Saras (67%) - PoE and seems to have decent things to say.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Aristo (0%) - Hasn''t posted enough this game

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Lane (-55%) - Slight scumread mainly based off my results from the reaction test.
Ranger (-59%) - Could be a meta issue, but I would like more detail to your explanations

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
Lowell (-65%) - For his unsupported vote of me.

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)
Persival (-80%) - Has done zero scumhunting and is not trying to help at all. Also, gut doesn't like this slot.
Fire (-98%) - I've said it in my game notes. Basically, his overreaction and immediate attempt to turn an obvious RVS vote into a scumtell.

[Ircher]

If I'm getting lynched, let me get my 2 cents in.... sheesh....

[Ircher]

No, its 5 to lynch and Pers and Ranger seem to scumread me heavily. Unlike your votes, mine are all serious, so I should worry a bit.

And Idc about what YOU want, its not alk about you. Yes, I wanted some RVS fun and then I suddenly get massively scumread cuz of it, and when I respond, that's apparently a push on you.

[Ircher]

As Ranger claimed. So, I'm saying that before all of you jumped to iffy conclusions, let me speak. I can understand the part about the hated modifier, but your initial jump was completely unwarranted. I'm leaving my vote on you as indicated by my 98% confidence rating that you are scum.

[Ircher]

When you stop stretching the truth then I will respond with valid arguments. You've torn all this out of proportion because you think you might get lynched if THREE more people vote you. You're panicked scum. This little pressure shouldnt affect anyome but scum. I must say, I'm rather proud. I never get things right this early as town.

Oh shut up, you arrogant word twister.

Obviously, at least half the game townreads you for some stupid reason.

And, you did start this. You say I'm nit presenting valid arguments, on the contrary I am. Did you not read my notes post which also has a readlist?

So, until you decide that you are going to stop jumping on me for invalid reasons, I'm keeping my vote parked on you.

[Ircher]

No, its 5 to lynch and Pers and Ranger seem to scumread me heavily.

WTF are you talking about? I don't even know who the fuck you are.

Fair enough. Don't go crazy just cuz I misjudge a situation though.

But, Ranger def. expressed a scumread of me and I'm sure others have too. So again, maybe I exaggerated slightly, but it really did look like you guys are trying to lynch me before I get a chance to respond.

[Ircher]

This little pressure shouldnt affect anyome but scum. I must say, I'm rather proud. I never get things right this early as town.

Hypocrite. You jumped at an RVS vote that "might" have been L-1 and wasn't.

I don't know what's wrong with the people in this game, but you are not confirmed town whatsoever. I don't know why you are at the top of Ranger's readlist and I'm at the bottom, that makes zero sense; in fact, you've contributed less than I have. And if this has anything to do with those stupid discards, then I rather appalled. Those discards mean NOTHING right now.

It isn't a "little" bit of pressure if it amounts basically to the same amount of pressure I gave you earlier -- you reacted as bad if not worse. So, if you are accusing me of jumping at the slightest pressure, you should reexamine yourself. The basis of my read is exactly that -- an overreaction.

When you are willing to rectify this on a bit more agreeable terms, I may listen, but for now, you have a 98% chance of being scum.

Tell you what though, as there is a good possibility this is TvT. I tell you my modifier and you tell me yours. Sounds good? I'll go first.

Spoiler: Modifier

Hero

Nonetheless, I stand by my word: until you are willing to cooperate with me, I refuse to cooperate with you. I actually took the time to at least go back through the thread and make sure I wasn't misreading stuff. In other words, I verified my read. Which, my read of you is consistent with the facts and while I understand some suspicion, you are being unreasonable.

So, take a step back,

Review the thread and make sure

your

facts strasight

and then we may talk and work some things out. Ignore me, and I'll see to it you are lynched.

[Ircher]

Has anyone actually LOOKED at FS? Cuz, it doesn't seem like it.

[Ircher]

FS - lean town - playing well and discard supports it, although not nearly as much as he seems to think.

Show me where he's playing well.

All I've seen is him discussingdiscards (which imo mean nothing right now) and jumping on me for an RVS vote.

[Ircher]

I like the FS wagon for starting with a dayvig:

VOTE: FireStarter (Wait, is that L-1?)

It wasn't real.
It was obvious as everyone ignored it. You voting me for that reason seems like a reason to hop on my wagon for no reason.

Responding to everyone else later when I get home.

GUYS LYNCH IS LITERALLY PLURALITY THERE IS NO L-1 DAY ENDS WHEN HOST ANNOUNCED IT WOULD END, REGARDLESS.

Day can still end early in a Lynch. The only thing plurality does is prevent a no lynch of it goes to the deadline. 5 votes ends the day.

Spoiler: Fire ISO

1. 14, 15, 17, 23, and 25 is all about discards. -

Explain to me why these discards are so alignment indicative, as I am the only one who don't see them useful at all right now. First of all, you get dealt 5. Second, two are alignment and 2 for role. So, this means a player who discarded mafia may have had anywhere between 1 and 5 of that alignment; same with town. Even if you discarded mafia, you may still have 0-4 remaining; aka not alignment indicative. Same goes for discarding a town card. Discards tell us nothing right now, and yet you are trying to use them for alignment indicative purposes. Remember, players choose which two they use for role and which for alignment.

2. 42, 44, , and [post]52 all have to deal with my vote on you. -

Number 1: Am I not allowed to make RVS vote on the

2nd page

of the thread just because

you

say we're out of RVS? Talking about discards imho is about as good as RVS, so I don't see what the problem was with making an RVS comment. Instead, you jump as soon as I put a third vote on your wagon: You suddenly act as if

I'm

scum who is trying to quicklynch you based on an RVS topic. Is that

not

an over-reaction --> 3 votes and then sudden FoS of last player who votes you. Then, in 52, you are twisting events by stating I put you at L-1 which never happened. Blue went so far as checking that to make sure. That's really overreacting, just because there

might

be 4 scum, a vote (that wasn't L-1 anyway) that might be L-1 and was obviously RVS is completely wrong. Let me ask you:

If there are 4 scum, then would they not just quicklynch as soon as they get the chance?

. I don't fully understand how these games work, but not telling town that they're in LyLo on D1 sounds a bit bastard -- so I'm going to assume you are overreacting when there is no need to --> if there were 4 scum, and Blue is town, we should've lost by now. So, yes, you're the one jumping on me. In regards to my vote --> it was originally an RVS vote, but when you decided that it was scum trying to get a quicklynch in, that's when it became serious.

3. More discard speculation and PR fishing in 69; aka stuff that isn't going to help town win.

4. 70 - Votes me cuz e wants answers to the questions he asked. -

I don't have a clue what he's referring to here. The only questin he asked me was was it an RVS vote which quite frankly, it should be obvious it was so. The fact that I not only have to spell it out to him but to the entire game both alarms and aggravates me.

5. 79 and 81 - More discard speculations. Also, appeal to probability (since he threw out a mafia role, less likely he's scum) -->

That would be true if players had their alignment cards chosen by random (aka, deal 5, discard 1, then alignment is chosen random from 2 of the cards and so is the role). In this case, players choose which cards for alignment and which cards to use for their role.

6. 113 and 116 - Finds my reaction an overreaction & is proud cuz he has "found scum easily" -

First of all, whenever I put notes into spoilers like this, they are as close to the truth as you're getting from me. While my own thoughts are in them, they are normally marked in italics; anything not in italics is generally 99% objective. That's not blowing things out of proportion; that's the opposite: I am ensuring I am NOT just tunneling the player but have decent evidence to support my reads. Second of all, okay maybe my reaction was an overreaction. Two votes + one person who effectively had their vote on me. In this case, all 3 of you are serious about voting me. Now let's see... look at

your overreaction

in 52 -- Then, your wagon consisted of two RVS votes and 1 serious vote, and you were

just as afraid

of being lynched as I was. Now, out of the two, who is more justified in thinking that their lynch was a possibility? Objectively, it would be me, as people don't tend to quicklynch a wagon that's mainly an RVS wagon. That is

not

an exaggeration, this is the bare facts: we were both in a similar position and we both overreacted, but I was more justified in my overreaction as your wagon was mainly RVS whereas mine, while only 2 real votes, had effectively 3 serious votes at that point.

7. In response to 122 --

No, I haven't, but what does that have to do with anything. I have two completed games, both are linked in my sig and you should really check them out. Normally, I'd say it be better for you (aka, optional), but with your tunnel on me, I'd say you need to read my two completed games. If meta and discards are used for alignment purposes in this game, then you better do me a favor and actually look at my meta.

8. 123 - Basically states I'm lying. -

Well, I guess those game notes were a complete waste of 2 hrs as no one has bother to glance at them. As I said above, notes like this are as unbiased as they get: they have a foundation on facts and i link to those facts. Just cuz I mention you a lot does not mean I'm tunneling. It just means you've done the most noteworthy stuff. The fact that you are saying my arguments

are not

rooted on facts when they

clearly

makes me extremely suspicious of you. Admit it --> You are guilty of confirmation bias, as anyone who isn't blindly sheeping you but is rather thinking for themselves would clearly see that even if my arguments are wrong or off, they are

clearly based on facts

. And don't tell me that that isn't the case cuz this game scumreads me. They are jyst following what you and Ranger are saying, as if they were not, they would at least express the same level of suspicion towards you as they do to me.

9. 149 is about why discarding town roles is scummier than discarding scum roles again. -

About those numbers, etc you plan to show --> They better be well backed and you better make it clear that VT discards

significantly

increase the chance a player is scum compared to other discards. Anything below 3% higher chance is

not signifucant

.

10.

This covers about 70% of the posts in your ISO. And, of that remaining 30%, about 75% is a one liner. So in other words, ISOing you does not look at all townie in ny shape, form, or way. What's the underlying facts for this point? It's 1-9 above.

This is also my case as to why we should lynch FS. That is, unless someone gives me a good,

objective

reason why FS is town. I've yet to get one as of yet.

[Ircher]

FS this is a very good post, how can we trust that you didn't manipulate the numbers ?
What is your guess about the number of scums in this game ?

Not sure what you're referring to.

I'm not saying FS is lying, he's probably right about those numbers, but I was thinking more theoretical possibilities of being scum when discarding town --> Theoretically, the discards prob. mean nothing.

Okay, @FS
Assuming you're town and I'm town, who'd you lynch next and why?

[Ircher]

I just looked at Ari's ISO, he hasn't contributed anything at all; is that normal for him?
VOTE: Ari

Also, don't like how Lowell wanted to end the day quickly by lynching me -- I'm against quick lynches.

[Ircher]

@Blue -- Yes

@All
WTH!!

[Ircher]

Well, anyone stating intent to hammer? Cuz I'm not claiming unless I have to.

[Ircher]

I kinda understand Ranger's vote, but pls explain the reasons behind your vote, Percival.

[Ircher]

Oh, and I'm starting to think FS is town, simply cuz of tunneling and TvT fights

[Ircher]

My guess is one of 2 things: either he's scum distancing himself from a lynch, or he is town is not confident that I'm scum.

[Ircher]

Town Rolecop

[Ircher]

Now I'm sure to get nk'd.............

[Ircher]

Heroic Town Rolecop

Forgot modifier

[Ircher]

When I flip town, please look at Lowell, Aris, FS, and Persival to begin with, but don't deathtunnel FS.

[Ircher]

@FS Rolecop is typically a scum ability

[Ircher]

Again,

@FS

, Rolecop is

typically

a scum ability.

[Ircher]

Ok., wait a second before hammering, pls

[Ircher]

I drew:

VT
Vanilla Cop
Rolecop
Werewolf
Werewolf Bodyguard

I discarded VT and used Rolecop/Were Bodyguard for Role. The other two was alignment

[Ircher]

Now, you can hammer if you want, as I have nothing else to say

[Ircher]

Yes

[Ircher]

Idk, I wanted Aa PR, Rolecop sounded interesting.

[Ircher]

Also, that's why I said I bet you were kying earlier -- I'd assume I'd be told the modifier if I were to check you

[Ircher]

Alignment wise, I was ok with either.

[Ircher]

Truthfully, didn't think about that. I saw VT and thought "That's boring! Discard that!"

[Ircher]

@Blue
Personally, I don't think delaying a hammer will help. Simply cuz I have been basically universally scumread this game. Aris prob. won't say anything interesting & Kat would use this as an opportunity (assuming he/she is scum) to get pressure off.

[Ircher]

Yes -- Sef hammer is antitown

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher  (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)
Blue (+90%) - I believe his claim, and he should've hammered me already if he was scum.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Ranger (+65%) - While his readlists lack info, he has given decent explanations when asked, and is not acting opportunistically.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
FS (+50%) - Despite tunneling him today, I can't help but feel it was a TvT fight.
Aris (-50%) - His 4 posts have been all super short & he has yet to contribute anything useful
Saras (-35%) - Personally, have nothing against him, but looking at other people's reads has made me rethink this.
Lane (-35%) - See 111.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
Pers (-75%) - He seems to be sheeping others in his vote, and gutwise, don't like this guy.

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)
Lowell (-95%) - For wanting to end the day early. Uncalled for, and doesn't seem to have own opinions

That's all my info I got. The rest of my info was in 111 and when I did the Fire ISO.

[Ircher]

Truthfully, I'm half-tempted to self-hammer simply cuz I don't want to wait any longer, but there may be a chance I still survive til N1.

[Ircher]

c@Ranger
I was shooting for Rolecop, fyi, regardless of alignment

I can self hammer simply to prove all of you wrong if you like, but that wouldn't be nice to the town.

[Ircher]

Next time, don't just lynch me cuz FS puts up an idiotic case against me. That D1 ML was just awful.

[Ircher]

@FS Were you serious in thinking I could be scum of opp. faction or were you just MLing me?

[Ircher]

rWell then, @FS
That lynch and its reasoning imo was absolutely horrible.

[Ircher]

.. Idk... I guess I'll give it another whirl. Just still can't believed that town sheeped FS's case against me D1 when the same could've been said for him. Maybe I'll have better luck this time.