Micro 590: RETURN OF THE CARD CZAR [GAME OVER]

[Fire Starter]

DAYVIG: Aristophanes

Thanks for accepting my invite BTW. Really had fun.

[Fire Starter]

Blue, why did you not choose treestump? As a possible role? Two scenarios: 1) you got much much better roles, or 2) you chose scum roles thus making treestump useless.

Take your pick.

[Fire Starter]

Same question to persivul. You gave away a two shot governor? That is so good though.

[Fire Starter]

Same question to persivul. You gave away a two shot governor? That is so good though.

I stand corrected. It's be scummier if you kept it since the day then ends I'm a no Lynch. Persivul can be town.

And blue, yeah it is. To both questions. It's kinda boring but if you actually follow through it can be a great advantage to town.

[Fire Starter]

What does that have to do with what you didnt pick?

[Fire Starter]

Your identity should be revealed, but some games vary. There is literally no benefit to scum being treestumps so even if your alignment wasn't revealed, you'd be assumed town.

As for me, I didn't get an FBI discard. I got a bus driver. I didn't want to be scum, and I didn't see how being a bus driver benefited town besides screwing with their Night actions.

My discard should be more than enough to make me the towniest one here.

Pedit. Yeah that.

[Fire Starter]

Also, that's my point. You didn't want to be town? You got rid of a town aligent role and a nice town power. That's really bad. I've played the Great Idea games enough to know that the discards tell a lot. Sometimes not until a flip is revealed but discards are always a clue.

Pedit: and since town has majority, odds are I hit town, and if I do not scum, what if they aren't the scum making the kill? It's not useful as town.

[Fire Starter]

Also, gotta go. Will be back on in like 5-6 hours. Dinner then game night.

[Fire Starter]

FoS blue. Would vote but I don't want a quick Lynch to happen.

[Fire Starter]

I like the FS wagon for starting with a dayvig:

VOTE: FireStarter (Wait, is that L-1?)

It wasn't real.
It was obvious as everyone ignored it. You voting me for that reason seems like a reason to hop on my wagon for no reason.

Responding to everyone else later when I get home.

[Fire Starter]

Was your vote an rvs vote?

[Fire Starter]

We were out of rvs so why put us back in?

[Fire Starter]

We were out of rvs, so you putting me to L-1 is serious. In a game that could potentially have 4 scum roles, mislynching is a serious fuck up.

[Fire Starter]

FS you assume that I didn't get 3 or more town cards, I need only two for my alignment and two for my roles.

I'm not saying you didn't get 3 town roles, as that happens often, but in combination with the role you threw out I'm saying that it's unlikely for you to have picked town roles.

Similarly you have a big chance to have had 3 scum cards and you felt the need to claim that you are the most towny player.

Incorrect. You had a bigger chance at having scum cards than me because I threw one away

entirely

. I didn't feel the need to claim being towny, I felt that it was obvious to everyone except you.

I am not sure if you were trying to fish for town PRs to assassinate during the night in addition to claim being townie.

Why would I fish for PRs? Let's say I'm scum and we're not partners. Then I know you to be town or some third party or something. You threw out a fairly good town role, which says two things to me: 1) you're scum and/or 2) you have a better choice of PR's. Either which way, I would make you the NK. There is no sense in me pushing you today as you would claim a powerful role and avoid a lynch. The reason I was pushing you is because I'm

not

scum. I want to lynch them and I can't kill at night. So this is my only way to make this happen.

What does FoS mean ?

You can vote, this would not result in a quick lynch ?

FoS is Finger of Suspicion. It's essentially placing a vote without actually doing so. Helpful in situations like LyLo and stuff.
I could vote, but what if you're town? Scum could easily hop on board while I'm gone and lynch you. I wanted to discuss things first.

[Fire Starter]

So you agree we should lynch blue today?

No. Blue is town. I was pushing him because he's a newer player and I was hoping that if he was indeed scum that he would slip under constant pressure. But overall, his tone is completely different in the last game we played in which we were scum together. He seems more collected and not playing the "I'm a newb" card anymore. I don't like that he outed that he is Hated, as that would give him an excuse to live to the end of the game without dying, but I don't think Blue!scum would have thought of that.

However:
VOTE: Ircher
I still want answers to my questions I asked you Ircher.

[Fire Starter]

Fire starter. Can you link me to the great idea games you've played?

No.

I only see one. Are you an alt?

Yes.

I'm not following you being self declared town whatsoever

OK.

Does that make me obvi town cause I discarded mafia role?

No. To me it makes sense that I should be town because I know my role. It's hard to think from a third perspective. I'm obv town because I am town. Not a valid argument which is why I didn't push it.

As for you, you threw away an FBI role. Useless as town and as scum. Compared to my bus driver role which would be great as scum. However you did throw away a scum role so that doesake you less likely to be scum. Just not as much as me.

[Fire Starter]

My discard. We can play the wifom argument but taking a powerful role as scum is always needed. Sacrificing it just to have a "potential" obvtown argument is not worth it. You can easily be nkd, copped, rbd, etc. Scum need powerful roles and I got rid of one that could easily cause scum to win. Would I sacrifice that just to make a wifom argument? That in itself is wifom but the best play is to not do that.

[Fire Starter]

You're completely correct. The last game I played, two discarded VTs were scum but from different factions.

[Fire Starter]

I like this guy.

[Fire Starter]

I think what he meant was that an explanation for Ircher!scum was given, and then you said you followed, then voted someone else for no given reason.

Why sarasaksjshfb?

[Fire Starter]

Why vote Sarasa instead of Ircher?

Speaking of which, is this all you have to say from the past couple pages? You were much more vocal last game when you were town.

[Fire Starter]

Ew.

[Fire Starter]

If I'm getting lynched, let me get my 2 cents in.... sheesh....

You literally have 2 votes on you. Over dramatic much? Just like the whole RVS thing. You swung us back into RVS and are trying to justify your vote by saying it was just RVS. RVS was done. I like getting out of that asap you and what, you just wanted an RVS vote?

[Fire Starter]

When you stop stretching the truth then I will respond with valid arguments. You've torn all this out of proportion because you think you might get lynched if THREE more people vote you. You're panicked scum. This little pressure shouldnt affect anyome but scum. I must say, I'm rather proud. I never get things right this early as town.

[Fire Starter]

Annnnnnnd you've pissed me off.

[Fire Starter]

Have you ever played a "Great" game before?

[Fire Starter]

Every argument you made so far, and I mean every single one(I actually read what you wrote!) goes like this:

You make an argument based on false statements in order to justify your vote. You then shit out an argument. I took a whiff and called it what it was: shit. You then EAT the shit, saying I'm twisting words and lying because there is no shit. You then shit back out the shit you just ate and voila, you have every argument you've made. And endless cycle of you shitting and reusing your own shit to justify your original shit. IT DOESN'T WORK LIKE THAT.

[Fire Starter]

GUYS LYNCH IS LITERALLY PLURALITY THERE IS NO L-1 DAY ENDS WHEN HOST ANNOUNCED IT WOULD END, REGARDLESS.

Day can still end early in a Lynch. The only thing plurality does is prevent a no lynch of it goes to the deadline. 5 votes ends the day.

[Fire Starter]

You mean a town discarder? Idk why a VT discard is more scummy than a PR discard

On mobile, self reminder to follow up on this. But the low down is VT discards are scummy. I will gather the actual numbers when I get home tonight.

[Fire Starter]

Role/Discard

Micro 450
Scum/Town
Scum/VT
Scum/VT
Town/VT
Scum/Town
Town/Scum
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Town/Town

Micro 438
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Scum/Town
Town/VT
Scum/VT
Town/Scum

Micro 424
Scum/Town
Town/Town
Town/Town
Town/Scum
Town/Town
Scum/Town
Scum/Town
Town/VT
Scum/Scum

Micro 383
Town/Scum
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Town/Scum
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Scum/VT
Town/Scum
Scum/Scum


Based on the 4 most recent "Great" games, all of which function similarly, these are the results:

Out of a total of 36 roles 15 were scum and 21 were town. On average each game had 4 scum and 5 town.

Out of the discards, there were 13 scum roles discarded and 23 town(10 of which were VT).

There were a total of 10 VT roles that were discarded. Out of those 10, 3 were discarded by town, and 7 by scum.

Town discarded town roles 10 times and scum roles 11 times.

Scum discarded scum roles

2 times

and town roles 13 times.


So what does all this mean? Give us straight numbers Fire Starter! Okay okay:

Out of the discarded

Scum

roles,

Town

discarded

Scum

roles

85%

of the time. 11/13.

Scum

discarded

Scum

roles

15%

of the time. 2/13.
If someone discards a

Scum

role, odds are they're

Town

.

Out of the discarded

VT

roles,

Town

discarded

VT

roles

30%

of the time. 3/10.

Scum

discarded

VT

roles

70%

of the time. 7/10.
If someone discards a

VT

role, they have good reason to be suspected of being

Scum

.

There is more you can infer from this but those are the two biggest things that always seem to be consistent.

Let's look at the current discards:

Fire Starter -

Werewolf Bus Driver

Ranger -

Werewolf

Persivul -

Two-shot Governor

Ircher -

Vanilla Townie

BlueTrin -

Treestump

lane0168 -

Mafia FBI Agent

Lowell -

Werewolf FBI Agent

Aristophanes -

Vanilla Townie

SarasaKat -

Vanilla Townie

Fire Starter

,

Ranger

,

lane0168

, and

Lowell

all discarded

Scum

roles. Odds are they are all

Town

.

Ircher

,

Aristophanes

, and

SarasaKat

all discarded

VT

roles. They have a more than slight

Scum

lean. Odds are they are not

Town

.

So that leaves us with:

Fire Starter
Ranger
lane0168
Lowell

Persivul
BlueTrin

Ircher
Aristophanes
SarasaKat

[Fire Starter]

That took a while to write up. My hands are tired. Had to manually crunch all the data.

Any questions?

[Fire Starter]

Also, I'm not saying that all of this is 100%, but this is definitely a starting point, and considering how the people in green suspect the people in red, it's no surprise.

[Fire Starter]

FS this is a very good post, how can we trust that you didn't manipulate the numbers ?
What is your guess about the number of scums in this game ?

I gave you the game numbers to look them up if needed.

In any game scum can be anywhere from 1-4. If there is 4, it's typically two separate factions.

Given the discards, I'm guessing 3-4 scum. The opening post said to try and pick scum roles so I'm leaning more towards 4. Town usually doesn't win in these game but with this being pretty obvious from the discards, this miiiiight be an exception.

[Fire Starter]

If you're town, then no fucking way. If you're town and there are four scum you're screwing us by offering yourself up.

Yes, outing yourself early was bad, but I have a feeling we need as many town as possible. If you are kept alive, then that is indeed bad, but if there are two factions, they still have to compete with each other and can't exactly sync up with killing you.

This sucks actually. You need to be gone from the game regardless of alignment, but if you're town then you need to be NK not lynched.

[Fire Starter]

Assuming you're town and I'm town, who'd you lynch next and why?

If I wasn't scum reading you hard, then I would lynch Aristophanes or SarasaKat. Both are likely to be scum if you're town. Aristophanes isn't talking as much as he did in the last game when he was town and we went head to head so that irks me. SarasaKat is sort of like you and pointing out small things that people say and blowing them out of proportion.

However, I think all three of you are probably scum so...yeah.

[Fire Starter]

I stand corrected. Out of the three of you, statistically, two of you are scum.

[Fire Starter]

Oh look. Votes on Ircher. Yay! Now I know I'm not crazy.

FS, Ranger, should I state my intent to hammer ?

I have a vote on Ari only to get him to speak at the moment.

Do you want to lynch him? If so, then yes. Why are you asking permission?

[Fire Starter]

Blue. You make me keep flip flopping my read on you.

[Fire Starter]

Ah I forgot that. Ok. Still. It's always best to bold it and state intent to prevent miscommunication like this.

pedit. Yeah. I'm fine with hammering. Typically scum end up with town abilities and town end up with scum abilities.

[Fire Starter]

@FS Rolecop is typically a scum ability

Not in this setup. 2 town rolecops and 1 scum one. Odds are you rolled the town one. And you discarded a town role? So at minimum you used two town roles NOT for alignment.

[Fire Starter]

So basically you said he's lying.

Shouldn't we use the day ? Or are you implying that nobody will speak now that he will be lunches on D1 ?

I think its a lie. I gave reasons why. You can vote or not. The only thing left is to decide whether he's telling the truth or not. There is literally nothing else we can get from today if you think he's lying.

[Fire Starter]

If you think he's telling the truth(which I believe he is a rolecop, just not town.) then don't vote and continue discussion on someone else.

[Fire Starter]

k. I think I'm going to bed soon anyway. I'd like to hear KittyKat and Aristophanes chime in before anyone hammers actually.

pedit: ok. So youre admitting to a 50/50 chance at being scum? Cheers.

[Fire Starter]

Are you refusing to self hammer?

[Fire Starter]

UNVOTE:

Noooooooooo. I hate second guessing myself.

[Fire Starter]

No. Nope. Can't do this. Last time I second guessed I was wrong.
VOTE: Ircher

[Fire Starter]

Shutting down the computer. Can't handle this.

[Fire Starter]

I don't like being wrong.

Out of the three people who discarded VTs I was sure at least two were scum.

I got:
Jailkeeper
Bloodhound
Werewolf Bus Driver
Bodyguard
VT

I used the VT and Bodyguard as alignment and bloodhound and jailkeeper as role.

I ended up with bloodhound. I targeted Aristophanes last night.

My modifier is a Bomb. If I get killed at night, I kill my attacker. So since there were two kills we either have two scum factions, or town killing and scum.

[Fire Starter]

Popcorn persivul.

[Fire Starter]

I didn't even notice.

@maestro, what he said.

[Fire Starter]

Well, personally, that sounds terrible. It might have something to do with the fact that I
Town but who knows.

Thought process?

[Fire Starter]

You and Lane actually.

Ranger is town. Will not lynch.

Blue is most likely town. Reasons why I'd Lynch him: he didn't throw away a scum role and he has a hated modifier. I don't want that around at end game. So if he's scum and we kill him, great. If he's town, then we prevent scum from killing him early.

You because you've been sheeping everyone and not giving anything insightful. You also didn't throw away a scum role.

Lane because he's like "hammer. Oops I have no reads".
Will not Lynch lame today though only because he threw away a scum role.
Yes, I am basing most of this game off the discards because that's what they're there for.

[Fire Starter]

Lane, who did you watch last night?

[Fire Starter]

Most likely. It said he committed suicide. Another reason I'd like to kill Persival. He didn't kill scum, he killed town.

[Fire Starter]

If there are two scum factions, one of them was bound to kill Aristophanes or Sarasakat, only because they still need to eliminate each other faction, and those two were definitely the scummiest.

Pedit: I don't get it.

[Fire Starter]

Basically, he would've killed him as town or as scum, and I'd rather risk a vig than have him shoot another Townie at night.

So we've got
Blue
Ranger
Me
Lane
Persival

Let's say we Lynch blue. And blue flips town.
Persival then kills me. I kill him because of my modifier.
Both flip town(if he flips scum then we win, unless he has another partner)

Left with Lane and Ranger. One has to be scum and scum has a NK left.

Autoloss.
That's where we stand right now.

Pedit: not necessarily, underdog is considered neutral until the first flip.

[Fire Starter]

Edited to compensate for the breaking of a rule.

~M

Fucking christ. DID YOU NOT READ THE RULES?

[Fire Starter]

* After you're dead (e.g. after I post your death, not after L-0), no posts of ANY KIND. That includes something that would normally be considered a "Bah"-type post. This rule will be enforced by a Modkill or other action that would harm the offending player's faction.

[Fire Starter]

Seriously? If he enforces this(be merciful) this could fucked us 100%

[Fire Starter]

If he does that them we're fine, but it also says an action that harms the faction. Modkilled would be better for sure though. I panicked.

See, I can't really talk to you about lylo and stuff because I think you're scum. In which case there ARE two factions. Otherwise no one would have kinged Aristophanes. Blue was scum reading him hard, so to me that doesnt make sense unless Aristophanes was going to be biased hard.

Pedit: I will look at his roles later, I'm at work.

[Fire Starter]

*bussed not biased my phone keeps autocorrecting

[Fire Starter]

If you claimed you vigged Ari, ID be voting you already. He committed suicide. Not killed.

Did blue even claim roles yet?

[Fire Starter]

Well he won't now -_-

[Fire Starter]

Just to be clear, I can assure that both the Role List and the Modifier List were randomized FOR EACH PLAYER, so as to prevent gaming of the system or an unequal probability of a player drawing a role based on something as trivial as "whether or not I pulled theirs from the list first" - nobody wants to get mostly VTs just because they signed up last.

[Fire Starter]

Thanks for the opportunistic vote though.

[Fire Starter]

It's your join date birthday?

[Fire Starter]

So just waiting on blue then.

[Fire Starter]

@mod if someone has a hated or loved modifier, does it stay active all game or go away in MyLo/LyLo situations?

[Fire Starter]

We already discussed this. Did you read? I think there are two bad factions. Much more likely than a vig.

[Fire Starter]

Honestly, I think right now Blue and Persival are bad are just going at each other to be the last faction since they know they will be NK by each other. That'd be interesting lol.

Pedit, then just catch up tonight and give your input. Full claim now if you can though.

[Fire Starter]

WHAT lol? Why on earth would you want to be a Gladiator as a survivor? Thats so bad.

Ok. I dont believe blue at all.

Intent to hammer.

[Fire Starter]

Right, but even then, why? Still really bad.

[Fire Starter]

I'm going for a run. It finally got warm here in Michigan, but I will be back later. Blue Trin, you had best convince me you're a survivor otherwise I will lynch you tonight. Work with town and we will spare you. Help us find scum.

[Fire Starter]

See. Ugh. I feel like he's telling the truth.

[Fire Starter]

Prior to today. Ranger had only 10 posts. 10. Half of which were fluff.

Are the discards up? I don't see them.

VOTE: Ranger

Oh shi--- knew I forgot something...
~M

RVS.

Same question to persivul. You gave away a two shot governor? That is so good though.

It's fantastic as scum. It's meh as town. I'd like to think that as a participating member of town, we're not going to get to a point where I would want to use it anyway.

K.

Also being hated means that I need to die before LyLo for us to win.

Yep, so if you're town, outing yourself was a really bad move.

Yep.

Hated is just your modifier. What's your role? Maybe we can work something out for a day.

Literally asking for the role Day 1? And negotiating? Say whaaaaat?

But I also believe that lane was quick to decide to lynch me very early in the day. I still find this suspicious.

Lane dislikes playing scum. With 5 cards to choose from he likely was able to get town.

Buddy's lane or Lane is partner.

Please explain the votes on me.

Well, when a Mommy vote and a Daddy vote are very much in love...

Fluff.

No, its 5 to lynch and Pers and Ranger seem to scumread me heavily.

WTF are you talking about? I don't even know who the fuck you are.

Fluff.

Yeah, we need clarification on that. If this is true plurality and all phases go full length, I'm leaving. That will get boring really fast.

Fluff.

I've read the thread but haven't ISO'd. Here's where I am:

Lane and Ranger look town. in my experience they each prefer playing town to scum, their discards are consistent with that, nothing in their play has pinged me, and I largely agree with Ranger's reads.

Blue - I suppose as a Hated we have to lynch him today, but we're holding off to continue to get reads - is that correct?

FS - lean town - playing well and discard supports it, although not nearly as much as he seems to think.

Lowell, Ari - null, haven't done much.

Sarasa, Ircher - scummy, but really my eyes were glazing over as I read their posts.

A reads list, but what I really dislike is the Blue read.

VOTE: Ircher

I believe that's L-1.

You did label him as scum but what you didn't do is explain why. Literally nothing all game.

He admits to a killing role. The odds of that role being town compared to scum is around 1 in 20. Then why did he kill SarasaKat when we all scumread her? Because he was trying to eliminate the other factions if any. If Persival was Aristophanes' partner, then I doubt he would've killed SarasaKat if he knew they were lovers. So two factions. Aristophanes for the WW, and Persival for something else.

VOTE: Persival
Claimed killing has to go.

[Fire Starter]

Prior to today. Ranger had only 10 posts. 10. Half of which were fluff.

*Persival

[Fire Starter]

Lane, walk me through why Persival is more town than Blue.

[Fire Starter]

[Fire Starter]

Toot toot. 3 for 3 in my scum games so far. Great time playing guys and gals.

Blue, I actually tried to keep you alive til end game which is why I didn't vote you today. Survivor is hard.

A pleasure as always Aristophanes, loved having you as a partner this time.

/in for replay if it happens

And of course thanks toaestro for the game!

[Fire Starter]

I hate autocorrect. What the hell is toaestro?

[Fire Starter]

I was serious, which is why no one listened to you. As scum, I never make fake arguments against someone. All of my arguments were sincere, and that led to others voting you as well.

People who I thought might scum on Day 1:

Ircher
SarasaKat
Lowell
Persival if Lowell was town

My theory on the discards was still very close the the truth, which is why I argued so hard for it.

[Fire Starter]

You already said you would, which is why he didn't ask.

[Fire Starter]

I'm down for that. It's more forceful on the role you get. This game quite a bit of discussion was based on player meta and knowing that they wouldn't pick scum roles. Now they may be forced to.

[Fire Starter]

Annnnnd things got weird.

[Fire Starter]

Well things were only getting weird because I was wondering if I could watch. Dunno.

BlueTrin amd Maestro bromancing it out? Hot.