Mini 515 - The Pine Barrens - Game Over!

[Spider Jerusalem]

/confirm

[Spider Jerusalem]

It would appear that ThAdmiral has yet to confirm by my count.

[Spider Jerusalem]

vote: thehermit

due to backpack with cute turtles envy

[Spider Jerusalem]

I'm sorry, should I not be throwing suspicions around? Wasn't that what you JUST said earlier Boo?

I didn't see anyone up to this point telling you that you couldn't throw suspicion around, however, when you throw suspicion around you must be prepared for the counter argument.

mcpaltp, and Elias_the_Thief, seem to have just stated they didn't agree that Bookittys post was suspicious. Bookitty herself seems to have presented little more than a defense to your suspense accusation. These all seem valid response to a claim that someone might be acting suspiciously.

So accusing Bookitty of hypocrisy in this case seems unfounded whether the joke was obvious or not. I wonder if TheHermit can confirm if this particular thought is what drew his vote or not.

For now I will accept that you misinterpreted the response to your statement of suspicion since we are just getting warmed up here but I will

unvote: thehermit

as it seems we are moving out of the random stage

[Spider Jerusalem]

Hmmm... lots to think on.

I'll examine the potential outcomes on this as they were previously presented by neko2086.

Boggzie is innocent and ryan is scum: This is very possible, however I am loath to be swayed by a purely metagame incident that I can not even verify. ryan's conduct so far has struck me as emotional and animated. He's rarely if ever responded in a calm and logical manner, but been more prone to outbursts and accusations. However, this almost seems to be so over the top that it would have been a very poor idea were he scum. That begs the question that I am currently considering when making up my mind about ryan: Is this just some very poor play choices by a scum, or is this a townie who fell down a hill and can't stop the momentum.

Boggzie is scum and ryan is innocent - If this is the case it is a series of amazing coincidencies. First is that is the existence of the PM itself. Either by pure chance Boggzie got a PM at just the correct time to try and use it against ryan, or hey took a chance and made it up whole cloth but ryan has told is that there is every possibility that he did send it. what a stroke of luck that would be. Secondly, at the exact same time that the previous event occurred ryan just happened to be already under some amount of suspicion here for other behavior, giving the opportunity for the PM bombshell to have extra effect. This just seems overall unlikely to me, if ryan had denied flatly the existence of the PM I would give this option a lot more weight. In the light that ryan has said he may have sent a PM but can neither confirm nor deny it, and has not made any denial in regards to potentially having retracted said PM. The luck necessary to stumble into this situation just seems to be to great for me to believe it happened, unless it was planned, which I will comment on later.

Boggzie and ryan are both innocent: This would require that specific events occurred. Boggzie recieved a PM from ryan regarding a replacement in a game, and it was withdrawn before he could read it. Boggzie then made an assumption about that PM that proved to be incorrect. This would seem more likely to me if ryan didn't take the wishy-washy position of it being

possible

that he sent Boggzie a PM. (emphasis mine) It could just be a poor memory, but it also is the kinda position designed to leave a wiggle room if more specific evidence comes out. So I am disinclined to support this theory.

Boggzie and ryan are both scum: This is possible but would be a horrible play for the scum at this point I think. As was mentioned previously a 1:1 scum for town trade is awful for them. With a closed setup we don't even know if we have a doctor so this could be handing us the absolute best result we could hope for out of a day. Their only hope is that we would confirm the scum who outed the other as innocent, which I don't think will happen. Given that this seems like such a bad move for the scum I can't get behind this theory either.

In conclusion I lean towards believing situation #1 (Boggzie is town, ryan is scum). However, I'm not convinced. We also just don't have enough overall info for me to be happy with day one coming to a close just yet, so I'm holding my vote but

FoS: ryan

from me as well.

[Spider Jerusalem]

How would you handle being lied about on Day 1 and blatantly?

I would post a logical and reasoned explanation, if that involves saying he lied, I'd say it. However, I would not let him rattle me and get me to explode because I would assume that was exactly the kind of response scum was hoping for since it tends to only build the bandwagon.

I would like to ask though what is the lie you are saying was told here.
So far you have admitted that it is possible you sent him a PM (post 64). So saying he got a PM from you is not yet known to be a lie.
You have yet to deny that you may have then withdrawn that PM, so saying that it was withdrawn before he could read it is not yet known to be a lie.
Boggzie has only claimed that he believes, believes being the operative word, from the timing and the withdrawal that the contents were a scum buddy conversation. In order for this to be a lie (most simply defined as an intentional untruth) he would have to know that statement to be false, or have stated it as a fact without knowing it as a fact. However, he did not state it as a fact, and unless he either did not received a PM from you (but you have admitted he may have), or read that PM and knows it's contents were innocent (but we have no proof of that nor have you refuted that it was withdrawn), then he has in no way lied in his claim.
To sum up a statement of opinion that may be incorrect is not a lie.

So my questions are:
Why do you repeatedly call him a liar as opposed to saying he is mistaken?
Is there anything you wish to state to refute his claim that we have not heard yet?

[Spider Jerusalem]

Yeah, seriously. Listen, everybody: you should never, ever vote for someone unless you think that they are scum. It's like pointing a gun at someone. This is what scum do.

I disagree with this. A lot. There ARE valid reasons to be voting someone you think might be town (gambits, pressure to force posts, to provoke a reaction), and even reasons to lynch town sometimes (plain sight lurkers, purposeful anti town behavior from a proven town player).

Elias I think you misunderstand his meaning here.

I think when he said "unless you think they are scum" he meant something more like unless you have some reasonable doubt they are town. I could be wrong but that was my reading of it. However the real issue I think is this statement:

You're right, Boggzie. I did receive one well before this game. And I should have said I received no PMs from ryan regarding this game.

That said, I'm about to do something I never expected to do, which is place a vote on someone hoping that they are town. I see no way to clear my name otherwise.

unvote; vote ryan

In particular the "place a vote on someone hoping they are town part"
This really rang bells for me at first as well.

Upon a second reading I got this though:
Thanks to some of the accusations from Boggzie, Bookitty was implicated as a possible scum buddy with ryan. She comes out with possible other explanations for what Boggzie saw as a scum tell. Due to ryan's continued emotional posts though she seems to have a change of heart. Her problem is that there is still the onus of suspicion on her and if ryan does turn up scum she is very possibly next. So in that situation an innocent person would be torn between wanting ryan not to be scum to clear themselves and their belief that he is scum.

This could be an effort to distance herself though. However since she was caught in a damned if she did damned if she didn't position (either she defends him and is guilty that way if he is scum, or she votes and if he turns up scum it's distancing) I don't feel much of a conclusion can be drawn at this time.

[Spider Jerusalem]

[quote="Spider Jerusalem"

So my questions are:
Why do you repeatedly call him a liar as opposed to saying he is mistaken?
Is there anything you wish to state to refute his claim that we have not heard yet?


1) Because instead of saying that I might have sent him a PM to join my game he immediately said that I was scum trying to PM him and I messed up and sent it to my wrong scum buddy, that is a bold faced lie. I do not discount that I may have sent him a PM to join my game, and yes I realize he wasn't on the reaplacement list, but what I did (as I stated earlier) was PM people that were online at the time when I needed a replacement. I cannot find the message in my sent box and I sent out quite a few replacement inquiries that day so I do not know for 100% certain that I sent him a message to join my game BUT I do know beyond a shadow of a doubt I did NOT send him a PM as my scum partner as I am not scum

2) Without quoting my role I can tell you that he has lied about the contents of said PM. Basically the way I look at it is IF I sent him a PM (which I didn't) and I was scum and he wasn't and it was past the speaking deadline than he should have reported it to the mod and one of us should have been modkilled for PMing AFTER the deadline was imposed, that would be breaking rules early on and easily fixed (by one of us being modkilled)

Thank you for your responses

However, you still insist on calling liar liar, rather than even accepting that Boggzie is merely making a poor assumption and thus is just mistaken. I thought I had explained rather clearly the difference between a lie and a mistake and so like opie I am now becoming extremely suspicious of you, even while ignoring Boggzies claim, but based purely on your own posts.

I would like to second the concerns from the end of opie's post (post #119) these concerns are almost the exact thoughts I had reading ryan's response to my questions.

I'd also like to note that he seems to be trying to twist Boggzie's accusation into something it's not. At this point I find it hard to accept that he was just confused about the fact that Boggzie said the PM was withdrawn before he could read it.

So mcpaltp, when I come up town what are you going to do than? Make silly excuses to why you voted me I'm sure

This is one of the scummiest arguments I can think of. It is purely an appeal to fear, and acts as if one person alone does the lynching. We never know, barring something like a confirmed cop revealing an investigation, that someone is certainly scum or town. At this point you only have 3 votes on you so no desperation plea is needed, making this really suspicious.

The people who are voting me have zero evidence (you included) you are taking one person's word over another and calling it gospel and that is NOT how you play mafia. You take evidence and build a case, until you do that I will continue to call you out on this.

No ryan I at least, and I hope the others who are suspicious of you, can completely ignore the PM accusation and just gauge your posts here as a measure of your likely-hood of scumminess.

Present some evidence yourself, provide some clear reasoning to clear yourself, give us some good quality analysis that indicates someone has behaved scummier than you.

I'm still unsure about voting for you as this whole thing was started by some metagame stuff thats very hard to analyze, but the more you continue with scare tactics and emotional appeals, the less any holes in Boggzie's argument concern me.

I need to examine a few other peoples behavior before I vote, so you've got one last chance to convince me.