Mini 515 - The Pine Barrens - Game Over!

TheHermit · Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Mon Oct 15, 2007 7:33 am

/confirm

TheHermit · Post Post #23 (isolation #1) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:12 pm

Vote: ThAdmiral

for being last to confirm.

TheHermit · Post Post #30 (isolation #2) » Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:58 pm

Unvote, Vote: Boggzie

for OMGUS.

TheHermit · Post Post #52 (isolation #3) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:14 am

It seems to me like ryan is trying a little too hard to make something out of nothing. Yes, I know the random stage sucks, but it's quite obvious that Bookitty's comment was a joke.

Unvote, Vote: ryan

TheHermit · Post Post #58 (isolation #4) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 1:40 pm

Yeah, I suspect that there's nothing about ryan jumping the gun that's ACTUALLY a tell. But if we don't start making mountains out of molehills we'll never get out of the random voting stage.

TheHermit · Post Post #61 (isolation #5) » Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:52 pm

Zakarum wrote:Trying to get a
quick lynch
?

(emphasis added)

I don't think that term means what you think it means.

TheHermit · Post Post #82 (isolation #6) » Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:38 am

Unvote

Honestly, I think it's possible that ryan is telling the truth and was simply trying to look for replacements. Not certain, but definitely a possibility. Honestly, if I was town and I received a PM from a scum in the game who mistakenly thought I was his scumbuddy, I would ask to be replaced. But that's just me. So I'm not really engendered to Boggzie right now. At this point, it's a huge case of your word versus his, and I don't think we're going to get anywhere debating about it right now.

Here's the thing, though; if Boggzie DID receive a PM, then he knows what it contains. If he's trying to play up this "I received a PM from him he must be scum" angle while he KNOWS that's not what the PM was about, that makes him a liar.

FOS: Boggzie

TheHermit · Post Post #107 (isolation #7) » Thu Oct 18, 2007 1:45 pm

Elias_the_thief wrote:I as a player have nothing against lynching townies for the gain of the town, though I dont want to get into that debate right now. However, lynching another townie to clear your own name is in no way a good reason to lynch someone that you don't think is scum. First, you're assuming that you are more valuable to the town. Second, you're assuming that by doing this youre actually clearing your name, and I feel that youre doing quite the opposite. So yeah. Scummy post. Also, if Bookitty is scum, theres lots of motivation to lynch a townie and clear herself. Not to mention her inconsistency on whether or not she got a pm from ryan.

I agree with all of this. Assuming we lynch ryan and he comes up town, how does this prove that you are town? Answer: it does not. It does not clear your name.

Vote: Bookitty

Although it's pretty certain that if you come up scum, ryan's next on the chopping block.

TheHermit · Post Post #140 (isolation #8) » Fri Oct 19, 2007 9:39 am

I'd just like to point out that getting emotional is not a scumtell.

TheHermit · Post Post #155 (isolation #9) » Mon Oct 22, 2007 3:54 am

So, what now town? I thought ryan was getting a little overemotional, but I didn't expect him to become an hero. I'm not all that suspicious of Boggzie; I think he really did believe ryan made a scum slip-up, but this episode just goes to show you can't base an accusation of mis-sent PMs. All of Day 1 was just too meta. And on top of that, we lost Spider Jerusalem! Man, no good comes from getting too emotional.

Now that I'm done summarizing the events of last night, I'm going to

Vote: mcpaltp

. Not only did he stubbornly refuse to accept that there was possibly no relevancy to the PM issue, but he comes out of the gate bowing and scraping. In my experience, after a mafia lynches a townie they are usually full of contrition. Not only that, I see his "if you think I was wrong I'll ask to be replaced" as obvious emotional manipulation. I'm not falling for it.

TheHermit · Post Post #159 (isolation #10) » Mon Oct 22, 2007 4:56 am

I think ryan's play could have gone either way; either scum, or noob town. He revealed which with his childish PM quote. I think his actions were deserving of suspicion, but not a vote. But that's just me; others would

As to whether you went too far, no. Not so far that it warrants asking for a replacement. ryan chose to overreact to that magnitude on his own. But in several of the games I've played/read, if someone comes after another player hard and then is very apologetic after they're revealed to be town, that person is usually scum. This is because a townie bases their votes on logic, reason, and interpretation; they had good reasons for their vote, they just happened to be wrong and the victim was unable to defend himself adequately. A scum, however, KNOWS that their reasons are bad, and they feel guilty for getting someone lynched for no good reason. That's why I'm suspicious of your "sorry guys" stance right now. It's a scumtell.

TheHermit · Post Post #170 (isolation #11) » Mon Oct 22, 2007 1:53 pm

Boggzie: I don't know whether to bop you in the head or go ahead and lynch you. If you are town, then the best thing for the town is to NOT lynch you. No question about it. Ugh, between you and mcpaltp I don't know who's "I'm so sorry" schtick is more scummy.

TheHermit · Post Post #174 (isolation #12) » Mon Oct 22, 2007 5:43 pm

Meh, that was all ryan's fault. In my limited time on the site here I've already been browbeaten at least as badly, and even at my most childish I didn't even consider quoting my role PM. That guy needs to get a thicker skin. No, I don't think you were out of line in the slightest.

We're still at a disadvantage, though... we're at Day 2 and thanks to ryan we don't have much info to go on.

TheHermit · Post Post #213 (isolation #13) » Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:19 pm

Unfortunately, thanks to ryan's hissy fit we don't have enough info for Spider Jerusalem's death to mean anything. He was probably nightkilled for no other reason than because he was cool and logical in the face of yesterday's bandwagon run amuck. If I were scum that's all the reason I'd need to kill someone.

I find ThAdmiral's lack of content disturbing, but if there's anything I learned from my first mini it's that lurker hunts generally do not end well. I would like to see this game progress further than everyone posting about how there's nothing to post about.

TheHermit · Post Post #255 (isolation #14) » Tue Oct 30, 2007 5:45 am

I am still here. However, I've been having a little trouble on my end so I haven't been able to devote time or energy to this game. Give me a day and I'll post my thoughts.

TheHermit · Post Post #270 (isolation #15) » Thu Nov 01, 2007 11:58 am

Right. Unfortunately, thanks to ryan, we have a Day 1 amount of information on Day 2. That sucks a lot, especially because I'm not very good at the early game. Hence all the lurking.

There have been a couple weak tells, but not anything that I can really question. For what it's worth, my gut is telling me Boggzie is town. I think ThAdmiral just made a newbie mistake. But I don't trust mcpaltp.

TheHermit · Post Post #279 (isolation #16) » Sun Nov 04, 2007 6:49 am

neko2086 wrote:I personally don't see the case against ThAdmiral very strong yet, and I'm not sure what to think of Zakarum yet. I need to hear from mcpaltp again before I'm ready to vote for him.

What kind of things would you like to hear from mcpaltp? Or, to be easier, what would you expect to hear from him if he were scum? Anyone can babble all day long, but what kind of information were you hoping to get from him before voting? What questions do you want him to answer that would confirm or ease your suspicions?

TheHermit · Post Post #308 (isolation #17) » Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:17 am

Rereading.

I find myself agreeing with the suspicion on Zakarum. I'm also not liking neko. He votes ThAdmiral to post, then when he DOES post and suspicion was starting to mount he unvotes, and then revisits the Boggzie issue for a vote (which Zakarum jumps on immediately). I think it's safe to say that if Zakarum is scum, that makes neko scum as well. Adding to my suspicion of neko is a very weird series of events starting at 278. He says he wants to hear from mcpaltp. I ask him why. His response in 281 is basically "I dunno" but dressed as a "You'll find out". After mcpaltp posts in 282, reprinted in its entirety here:

mcpaltp wrote:What? Are you asking me a question or something? If you did, repeat please, I missed it.

neko believes that this comment is enough to place a vote on him. Uh, what? When pressed he explains that this is because of his FoS, which mcpaltp exposed as having little meat on it.

My own vote on mcpaltp was mainly intended to spark a discussion, and it's been squared away as well as it's going to. neko using these same reasons as a lynch-worthy vote without adding anything new rubs me the wrong way.

Unvote, Vote: neko2086

TheHermit · Post Post #309 (isolation #18) » Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:19 am

Bookitty wrote:What do you think of the possibility that ThAdmiral and Zakarum are scumbuddies? I'm somewhat leaning in that direction at the moment.

Important to point out that there are probably three scum in this game. I personally think there's some merit to a Zakarum-ThAdmiral-neko scumteam.

TheHermit · Post Post #313 (isolation #19) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:04 am

neko2086 wrote:up. Are you saying that because Zakarum jumped on my lead, that that makes me scum too? Are you serious? Why on earth would mafia follow each other's lead? Zak could very well be scum yes, but that doesn't automatically make me scum.

I never said it did. I'm just entertaining the possibility. However, newbie scum might want to "follow the lead" of the other scum, or they might wish to

Also, you conveniently left out this part of my post in 281: "Why would I reveal what I'm expecting to hear beforehand? Wouldn't he just say what I want to hear then?"
You never answered that, either, which I wasn't expecting you to, since it was more or less a rhetorical question, but I thought you would at least consider it. I guess not.

So asking for clarification of what you're suspecting him for is worthy of upgrading an FOS to a vote?

Oh, and I didn't vote on him just for his post in 282. I already had an FOS on him, and after giving him the chance to comment, and seeing that he didn't even notice I put an FOS on him, I went ahead and place my vote on him until I could be convinced to take it off. We have different opinions on how much weight an FOS has, but considering the way I feel about them, my vote shouldn't be all too surprising. And how have I not added anything new?

Hmm, I could have sworn I mentioned that I thought mcpaltp was just going with the flow yesterday... but looking back I can't find it. Besides, I'm not sure if this is really a scumtell. On Day 1 you have to look for the tiniest reasons for anyone to get lynched. I think he was pressing ryan in the hopes of generating discussion and information. Is it bad? Possibly. But I don't think it's vote-worthy. And, as I said before, getting emotional is not a strong tell.

Now this is really interesting... you say you would agree with the suspicion of Zakarum. You then say if Zakarum is scum, then I am scum (which I've already said is a bit bogus). Well we don't know that Zakarum is scum do we? So, why are you voting for me and not him, when you claim to be fairly convinced he is scum while I "rub you the wrong way." Now, I won't claim to be a top-notch logician, but your logic seems mighty twisted. Scummy behavior? I wouldn't say that quite yet, but IGMEOY. I think my own reasoning for voting mcpaltp is valid, so my vote still stays for now.

I think it's pretty obvious that my vote is intended to generate discussion, especially in a game that's lagging out like this one. I want to take a serious look at all the other players, you just caught my eye first.

Does anyone else have anything to add? How possible is a Zakarum-neko scumteam? Am I jumping at shadows, or do my suspicions have merit?

TheHermit · Post Post #314 (isolation #20) » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:05 am

TheHermit wrote:However, newbie scum might want to "follow the lead" of the other scum, or they might wish to

go with a "they wouldn't possibly do that" WIFOM gambit. Who knows? However, it pays look at how people might be connected.

TheHermit · Post Post #360 (isolation #21) » Tue Nov 13, 2007 8:46 am

I gotta get to work, so I'll make this quick and post my full reasoning in the evening. Adel's charts and graphs seem to have the intention of hiding his reasons for voting, which is a poor strategy for both town and scum. If you're town trying to convince everyone someone of a person's scuminess, how can you do it if you don't share your thoughts? If you're scum, why use such a blatant method of hiding your reasons?

TheHermit · Post Post #396 (isolation #22) » Wed Nov 14, 2007 3:59 am

I agree with the general sentiment of not trusting Adel and his magical mystery algorithm. Especially when he asks us to just trust it, then admits that it screwed up in the recently completed game. A-durr.

Everyone and their mother has a "system" for winning it big in Vegas. They all fail, spectacularly. Do you know why that is? Mostly because it's essentially impossible to predict randomness, but also because math ignores the human element, and you simply can't do that in a highly personal game like mafia.

So I don't believe a single word Adel says. Not unless he can back up his "algorithm" with actual, verifiable evidence.

TheHermit · Post Post #397 (isolation #23) » Wed Nov 14, 2007 4:09 am

I also love (and by love, I mean I'm really suspicious of) how Adel points out "scumtells" and then dismisses them when they're applied to him. So somehow you're immune to your own algorithm? Also, the "I think mcpaltp is scum but he's not a good lynch for today" reads like "mcpaltp is my scumbuddy, but I'd rather not bus him if I didn't have to".

Adel, you're currently at four votes. I will be putting the L-1 vote on you shortly. Now would be a good time to roleclaim.