Mini 1800 - Game Over

[Persivul]

VOTE: sickofit

Eager to see something - anything really - from the shadyhood replacement

VOTE: The Bulge

[Saru]

Saru, what's with the flip on Kappy?

From my previous posts, I pointed to Kappy being my second choice for scum behind you. Reasons for this are in those posts. However, since then, Mecha has come in and I feel has presented a good case in your favor, and so while I still have some doubts, I'm just reading you null for now. Plus, I want to pressure Kappy to respond and like I've said previously, I feel L-2 is a good point for that.

[The Bulge]

VOTE: sickofit

Eager to see something - anything really - from the shadyhood replacement

VOTE: The Bulge

words are important

[MechaGoomba]

Not townie, or even anti-townie, is not always the same as scummy.

I'm parsing this as "I made a mistake". Is that the correct interpretation?

[Dierfire]

I've read the last few pages, but I didn't find anything interesting. I feel as though I need to read some of the less active players.

[Dierfire]

Oh, I guess that I could comment on 235 by Kappy.

@Kappy

Your read on Sickofit1138 in 181 sounded much stronger than the evidence that you presented in 235. In particular, you had cited his 134 and 152 when you first changed your read, but when you finally made the longer post your objections seemed to be that 134 was "an excuse" and that 152 is nonsensical. Are you able to further elaborate on why those things made you swing your read so strongly?

[Persivul]

Saru, what's with the flip on Kappy?

From my previous posts, I pointed to Kappy being my second choice for scum behind you. Reasons for this are in those posts. However, since then, Mecha has come in and I feel has presented a good case in your favor, and so while I still have some doubts, I'm just reading you null for now. Plus, I want to pressure Kappy to respond and like I've said previously, I feel L-2 is a good point for that.

nm, I was thinking of qubix.

[Persivul]

VOTE: sickofit

Eager to see something - anything really - from the shadyhood replacement

VOTE: The Bulge

words are important

The sick wagon is crap. you jumped on it.

[Persivul]

Not townie, or even anti-townie, is not always the same as scummy.

I'm parsing this as "I made a mistake". Is that the correct interpretation?

No, it's theory talk.

[karnos]

Most of my reads. Skipping someone for obvious reasons. Also, here is my big newbie slip- I don't know how to easily link posts by post number. Is there some shortcut? Doing it the manual way seems to be way too much work, sorry, I will at least provide non-hyperlinked post numbers so you can check my work if you wish. Also, going to come right out and admit this: I tend to show some unintentional bias against players voting me, I'm trying my hardest to read everyone equally.

kappy

started off very weird in RVS. started to develop a significant wagon from those suspicious of his weird behavior, and predictably calmed down and started posting read lists and taking the game more seriously. I'm not too happy though that it seems once his wagon started to fade away so did his posting- A staggering 20 posts Wednesday, 6 Thursday, 7 Friday, final one explaining that he going away and will be posting even less frequently, and nothing yet today. More damning is the fact that his last 5 or so posts are totally game irrelevant, stuff like miss-posts and talk about hockey. Almost sensing that he was only acting town long enough to break away from a wagon- of course that didn't fully work, as he still has several votes to his name.

null/scum

sickofit1138

started posting a bit weird in RVS as well, and almost immediately called out for some inconsistencies in his posting. Pushed hard for a bit by persivul, who eventually seems to be satisfied that sickofit is town. Yet the feeling isn't mutual, and sickofit continues to vote persivul. Also a few posts I really don't like, such as the one saying no town should vote me, only scum, or the one where sickofit offers that everyone should either vote him or persivul. While I don't think I should automatically view him as scum because of knowing his post style in prior games, that certainly doesn't confirm him as town either.

null/null

mizzytastic

Almost every single post by mizzy is a question, prior to #123 where it goes into a more serious attack on me. I don't consider asking questions to be a scum tell, but it almost seems fake, like someone told mizzy to ask a lot of questions as scum so you look like you are town. Even #60, Mizzy's initial vote on me, just looks like a cheap copy of chumba's post #59 a minute prior. After #123, almost every post seems to be focused on me, until a Friday post announcing being away, and no posts at all today.

null/scum

qubixes

Starts by asking questions but quickly moves to more complex analysis, initially with #175 where he votes me. However, unlike mizzy above this looks like legitimate original content, and there is no tunneling- later posts call out species, question the saru/persivul argument, some defending towards kappy (I don't fully agree with TBH, but it doesn't sound scummy), followed by getting a bit caught up in the whole kappy discussion for a few posts.

null/town

chumba

Initial impression was that chumba is clearly town. Her vote on me #59 was real, unlike the nearly identical copy posted by mizzy. A few defensive posts after people question her for defending sickofit, but nothing that screams out scum to me there. Gets a little bit into it and then apologizes for posting so much, odd but not damning. Some interesting points towards persivul, but remains voting kappy. Gets a little defensive later and insists on parking her vote on kappy, and then replaces out.

town

(pending reads of replacement)

mechagoomba

First post #76 is incredibly bad. Seems to be tunneled on proving that chumba is scum because chumba defended sickofit. I read #88 as another bad post... the logic used is that he is unvoting chumba because chuma's stubborn refusal to admit doing what she did proves she is town... I don't like the argument one bit. Almost sounds to me like mechagoomba wanted an excuse to unvote and just had to go with it when chumba refused to confess. After that, jumps on the wagon with mizzy voting me. Comments on my and mizzy's arguments a bit, and makes a remark about species having a "pretty bad" ISO. Goes on to question sickofit about his vote on persival and eventually votes kappy. #312 another terribly bad post from a town perspective, complaining that he can't read a post because it has typos, instead of responding to the content. #324 is also bad, just generally showing a lack of patience and refusal to re-explain anything- this IMO can be a scum tell, if you are simply posting what you truly belive it's easy to repeat a point multiple times using different words, but when you are making stuff up you need to make sure you repeat the exact same stuff each time to avoid contradicting yourself. #331 is bad coming from mechagoomba- note I was trying to keep this notes brief, but this just demands an exact quote "Communication is a two way street. Both the speaker and the listener bear blame when miscommunication happens. To blame the listener ("you're not reading") when you're the speaker and blame the speaker ("creating confusion") when you're the listener is untenable." - I just find this statement coming from mechagoomba to be so ironic, given his earlier refusal to read a post because it had typos and his refusal to re-state a position instead demanding ShadyHood read the top post of the page.

null/scum

snork

Very short ISO, not much to go on. Apparently because he was attending a nieces graduation (congratulations to your niece!), though even after his return we don't have anything new yet. Initial vote of kappy, with a switch to sickofit at #96 for not completely obvious reasons.

null/null

species

Another relatively short ISO. Lots of short posts asking a singular question or making a small point, reminiscent of mizzy's initial ISO before she started to tunnel me. No vote change since his initial vote on sickofit, which is odd. I consider it a scumtell when someone simply sticks with an RVS vote through, because what are the odds that the person randomly picked matches up with their best scum guess from hunting? I need to remember that isn't exactly the situation here though, because species came into the game late, first post was #97.

null/scum

saru

Saru also started posting late in the thread, in this case at #111, right in with a reads list, and some opinions, sounds very towny. Voted persivul initially after catch-up. Has a little back and forth with chumba, and then gets into it good with persivul. Eventually apparently he has had enough from persivul to convince a vote switch to kappy, but also seems to still view persivul as a possible scum. More or less admits that he wants to pressure kappy, which sounds bad but might just be a noobish error, as pressure doesn't work nearly as well when you admit you are only voting to pressure.

null/town

shadyhood

Another short ISO, and another player requesting replacement. I don't have a strong read on this guy and since he is replacing out I'm going to hold off and do his reads later when the new player for the slot has made sufficient posts. TBD

dierfire

I hate the prod dodge posts such as #166, but as a one-time thing I won't deduct points for it. The latest late-comer to the game. Another very short ISO, especially when you deduct his fake filler posts #166, #226, #290, #293(semi-content in this one), #354- that is a *lot* of filler. In his favor while he has few posts some are very detailed posts full of useful information. I don't have a strong read here either. I find his posting style very strange, it's like he isn't active in the thread, just periodically posting his admittedly detailed journal of thoughts. I've really never seen another player post exclusively like this, and I don't know what to make of it.

null/null

[Saru]

Karnos, just a note on your read of me. I'm not voting Kappy just for pressure. My other reasons are in post 237, along with the fact that he didn't answer my questions presented to him in that post, instead, focusing on my hockey post. Even if I were voting him just for pressure and admitted to that, it's not a bad thing to do because my vote put him at L-2, so he's gonna have to be pressured anyways, regardless of admission. It'd be bad if I admitted to it when my vote only put him at something like L-5 instead. Just my view on that.

[karnos]

Saru

Additional note: Extremely defensive, correcting my read almost immediately...

null/scum

I'm kidding, of course.

I don't expect my reads to be all that accurate being where we are on day 1.

[karnos]

And yeah, I get your point. I just think pressure works best when you never mention the word, until after the desired result occurs.

[species]

Prodge, will contribute tonight

[qubixes]

I think there are players that have been more scummy, so yes I guess?

Who, and why?

Not sure exactly what you mean by drifting (seen the word thrown around a bit), but isn't it something town does as well?

Lazy town do. That's why we need to push people to sort them.

Why did you phrase your questions to me the way you did? Do you think I'm scum?

I find you suspicious.

Is it supposed to motivate me? (Hint: it doesn't) To me, it doesn't look like with the current state of the game, pushing someone I find scummy isn't going to accomplish anything.

What specifically about the current game state indicates that pushing someone scummy won't accomplish anything?

So why bother?

How do you intend to sort people if you don't pressure your scum reads?

The game felt rather stale, with everyone kind of stuck at their positions. That is one of the reasons I thought defending kappy might achieve something. I thought that might help make the game a little more fluid again (and I thought the two main wagons were not in the same place). I also defended kappy to sort you, see if you would be interested in some new idea's, but I was rather disappointed. Not really scumreading you at the moment, but we'll see.

I think sometimes waiting and seeing is a fine strategy to sort people. Even without pressure, people drop scumtells, and the fact that they are not yet aware of the reasons that you're scumreading them might let them make more mistakes.

I had Saru as a decently strong scum read for some time, but I the end of their exchange (with Persivul) looks a lot more towny to me, to the point that I'm actually town reading him now.

I'll get into my scum read in my next post, and I'm sure you're all in eager anticipation!

[Kappy]

Sorry guys, but I am now in Kansas. I'll do my best to try to keep up.

[Kappy]

Oh, I guess that I could comment on 235 by Kappy.

@Kappy

Your read on Sickofit1138 in 181 sounded much stronger than the evidence that you presented in 235. In particular, you had cited his 134 and 152 when you first changed your read, but when you finally made the longer post your objections seemed to be that 134 was "an excuse" and that 152 is nonsensical. Are you able to further elaborate on why those things made you swing your read so strongly?

I called 134 an excuse in both posts. To clarify, I had said 152 bothered me, and I meant it bothered me for the reason I stated in 235, he seemed to be trying for an extra town lynch. Oh, and also that he mispelled tomorrow.

kappy

started off very weird in RVS. started to develop a significant wagon from those suspicious of his weird behavior, and predictably calmed down and started posting read lists and taking the game more seriously. I'm not too happy though that it seems once his wagon started to fade away so did his posting- A staggering 20 posts Wednesday, 6 Thursday, 7 Friday, final one explaining that he going away and will be posting even less frequently, and nothing yet today. More damning is the fact that his last 5 or so posts are totally game irrelevant, stuff like miss-posts and talk about hockey. Almost sensing that he was only acting town long enough to break away from a wagon- of course that didn't fully work, as he still has several votes to his name.

I tend to do that. After RVS, I find it's hard for me to maintain a high post count. It seems like there is no reason to post much, besides answering people's questions and posting reads. I wasn't able to post yesterday because I was going away. Now that I have successfully reached "away", I will hope to continue posting until I return from "away" next Saturday.

---

I feel like there was someone addressing me that I missed. I think it was either Persivul or Saru. Can you repost any questions for me, because I cannot find the old post for the life of me!

[Saru]

I can't speak for Persivul, but I did have questions for you, I presented them in post 237.

Also, seeing as you're at L-2, care to post your thoughts about the people who are voting for you? What do you make of them and their reasons(if any) for voting you?

You chose to ignore them and talk to me about hockey.

[MechaGoomba]

Karnos: If you have as many scumreads as you have townreads, you need more townreads, because there aren't that many scum in the game. There are always more town than there are scum.

After RVS, I find it's hard for me to maintain a high post count. It seems like there is no reason to post much, besides answering people's questions and posting reads.

1) Please don't self-meta.
2) You've posted multiple readslists, so I assume you have scumreads. Why aren't you pushing them?
You've answered questions, yes. Why not be proactive, ask some for a change?
Be proactive, not reactive. Town has to be proactive; everyone has to do their part to find scum. Scum can afford to be reactive because they only need to survive.

[The Bulge]

VOTE: sickofit

Eager to see something - anything really - from the shadyhood replacement

VOTE: The Bulge

words are important

The sick wagon is crap. you jumped on it.

And I'm supposed to care what you think about my scumread's wagon composition?

[The Bulge]

Karnos: If you have as many scumreads as you have townreads, you need more townreads, because there aren't that many scum in the game. There are always more town than there are scum.

After RVS, I find it's hard for me to maintain a high post count. It seems like there is no reason to post much, besides answering people's questions and posting reads.

1) Please don't self-meta.
2) You've posted multiple readslists, so I assume you have scumreads. Why aren't you pushing them?
You've answered questions, yes. Why not be proactive, ask some for a change?
Be proactive, not reactive. Town has to be proactive; everyone has to do their part to find scum. Scum can afford to be reactive because they only need to survive.

What were you hoping to accomplish with this post?

[Persivul]

I also defended kappy to sort you, see if you would be interested in some new idea's, but I was rather disappointed.

Actually your response to my PBPA on kappy did have an effect. I still see him as scummy, but am considering the possibility that he's just town goofing around.

[qubixes]

I think

Karnos

has about a 80-90% chance of flipping scum.

At some point during this game, when I was already suspecting him in general, I vaguely remembered that I spectated (unspoiled) a game of his some time ago. I remembered reading him as very open towny, so I looked through some of his games where he was town and his play here doesn't look anything like it.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=65727
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=66170

My read on him is not so much a meta read, but importantly the meta does reinforces it. Here are the overall main problems I have with him:

1

He is being very careful. I don't find this true in his town games.

2

He is very conscious about how what he writes looks. Also didn't find many examples in the meta.

3

His reads list is long and basically a whole bunch of nothing/null. It reminds me very much of my own read lists when I was scum the first time (I also felt that I should give a list as scum to look townie).

So let's find some proof of the above shall we? Now that I have finished my quotes, wow there is a lot. Feel free to disagree with some of it that is perhaps a bit picky, but there is just so much that reinforces the picture imo that it can't be ignored. Maybe I was even feeling generous saying it's only 80-90%. I would suggest everyone to at least have a good look at Karnos, to see whether he is scum. I just put in too much effort to let it go to waste by being ignored.

I color coded them for convenience (see list). I might have gotten some colors wrong. Also, I don't know why I chose green.. That's not a towny point.

Spoiler: proof

UNVOTE:

In all seriousness, I don't see a good target for a serious vote yet.

I don't think kappy is in danger of being quick-lynched,

but I don't want to be implicated if it does somehow happen while I am away.

To be fair I have seen this before done by newbie town, however it still shows how careful he is and implicitly how he think he'll look if something would happen while he is away.

I caught up with the thread a bit late, made an RVS vote, reviewed the thread and decided Kappy was acting weird enough that I wanted to vote him. I almost immediately realized that persivul had just called out sickofit for wagoning kappy, and I also knew since it was my wife's birthday I wouldn't be able to post for the rest of the day, I figured unvoting would be

safer

than leaving with such a

controversial post.

And I phrased it as I did because I wouldn't be worried about a quick lynch that did indeed flip a scum Kappy, but I didn't want to be implicated if I was wrong and he was an innocent townie.

Being only a few hours into the first day I wasn't ready to stake everything on one read.

This just reinforces the previous post. Of course, it was early in the game, so reads are logically not very strong yet. Even so, the game started rather quick so it's a bad sign nevertheless.

After a full review of the thread, I've gotta re-vote my RVS target:

VOTE: Dierfire

Stop hiding.

If I posted my reads list, it would just be pretty damn similar to everyone else.

I think it's obvious chumba is acting extremely pro-town, sickofit and kappy acting a little silly and scummy, and just about everyone else falls in between.

Hard to have a strong read on anyone at this point in the game.

I'd like to at least see a couple posts from every player by now, the game has been up for almost 24 hours right?

This attack on the player who hasn't posted yet is very safe. He again reiterates how hard it is to get reads. The blue part suggests that he thought about posting a list, but figured that it would look like he is just copying other peoples. He probably think it makes him look scummy.

I was thinking that too, but

this is my first normal game so I didn't want to make assumptions.

Shady is a newbie with about a dozen posts, I was just trying to get him to add an avatar and it worked.

I don't like your vote either, do you want to fight about it? Not posting at all feels like a safe play for scum, and without a little tiny bit of pressure the hiding player can step in, make a minor observation and then hide again for awhile. If everyone had posted by now, I still might be voting for the player with the least posts, if I didn't think they posted any actual useful content.

Are you being obtuse? When I made the post, I immediately realized persivul had called out sickofit for doing virtually the same thing, and there was a bunch of back and forth on the topic.

I decided I didn't want to get into that mess when I knew I would be out and unable to post.

Now that I am back and able to post, bring it on

More useless content about his policy vote. Then says he basically is afraid of getting into a mess if he sticks his head out.

Yes, and who wouldn't want their alignment indicated?

In general, I don't put a lot of trust in day 1 reads. Yes, I do have a couple players noted in the back of my mind as acting a bit suspicious, but I think they are already getting enough pressure and my vote isn't needed. So I'd rather get some discussion going among the less active players and see how they act and react before even thinking about who the first real lynch should be.

I tend to be a fairly active player when I'm not sleeping. Yesterday was an unusual day for me, so I was feeling a bit paranoid knowing I wouldn't be able to be actively posting.

Maybe that paranoia made me come across as scummy.

Policy vote, yawn. Also want to note that he is again excusing himself here. He did that before also. Perhaps I should have colored that as well... Either way he's clearly very worried about looking scummy, much more so than a town player would.

Then 171, 180, 183, 184 more of the inactive stuff, even when unprovoked.

Somehow I didn't pick up on this the first time I skimmed it. I see whats going on, I was aggressive towards hiding players, so qubixes heads me off and votes me first before he goes into hiding for the rest of the week. now I can't vote him without it being OMGUS!

I don't know, maybe this is something I need to learn from.

I tend to distrust hiding players in every game, feel free to look at my game history. When you give them a free pass, how can you make sure scum doesn't abuse your goodwill?

He is trying to justify here that he attacks inactive players by using his own meta. Note that he hasn't been attacked on his meta at this point. I think it shows that he thought about it probably beforehand that attacking inactive players would be ok, since it was part of his meta.

Ha! You can vote me if you think I'm scum. Why are you so worried if it looks like an OMGUS? If you give solid reasoning why I'm scum, it's not OMGUS. You seriously think that I would vote you, because I'm afraid you're going to vote me for inactivity? Also self-meta doesn't look good to me. Apparently you're aware of what you normally do, and you do it here, so that proves... exactly nothing, except you want us to believe you're town?

I meant that in a joking manner, maybe it wasn't obvious enough. I'd absolutely vote you if I thought you were really scum, but even if you are going to hide for a day or two you have been making readable posts prior to that so I don't really have an issue.

This doesn't really fit in my color scheme, but I was very concerned by this. It feels a bit wrong here that he is pseudo-defending me here for making "readable posts". I think this is a clear attempt from scum to try and manipulate me into backing off.

239, 247

, more null reads and a weak back off from kappy.

I've been lurking

, I've had a few thoughts but I wanted to see where the Persivul:Saru thing went. Since that seems to be sputtering out, I'll cut in.

[-snip-]

Again almost written as an excuse. Looks like he's worried for being called out for lurking.

Not going to quote

359

. It just reads like a lot of nothing to me. It looks long and impressive, but when it comes down to it, there is a single town read in the whole thing and no scum reads (don't count null/scum or null/town). Sure he put the effort in, but to me effort != town here.

Saru

Additional note: Extremely defensive, correcting my read almost immediately...

null/scum

I'm kidding, of course.

I don't expect my reads to be all that accurate being where we are on day 1.

Getting a bit bored right now, because I think the pattern should be rather obvious right now. More excuses for not having strong reads, yawn.

I'm already voting Karnos, so that's really too bad .

[qubixes]

I also defended kappy to sort you, see if you would be interested in some new idea's, but I was rather disappointed.

Actually your response to my PBPA on kappy did have an effect. I still see him as scummy, but am considering the possibility that he's just town goofing around.

Oh, well it didn't sound like it too me. Anyway, it's good that you're at least considering other possibilities. Interested to hear your thoughts on Karnos.

[Saru]

VOTE: sickofit

Eager to see something - anything really - from the shadyhood replacement

VOTE: The Bulge

I just looked at the automated vote counter, and I noticed that it says that in post 350(the one quoted above), Persivul voted for himself, regardless of whether you check the box to process questionable votes or not. I'm thinking because The Bulge hasn't been entered as a player in the game yet? Whatever the reason, might want to look at that getting fixed.