Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[toolenduso]

meh, it's just like

why does it seem like he goes out of his way to talk about ha to keyser and keyser to ha so goddamn much

Maybe because it was the most significant thing happening in the game during D1? Did you forget that we basically couldn't get a real wagon going for most of the day?

225 look at how many words it takes him to explain his "snowball townread" to keyser - very fluffed up - compare that to the rest of the interactions in that post - concise - to the fucking point

Of course that response was going to be longer than the other ones. When I was talking with Keyser it was about game theory, with the other two I was doing much simpler things.

When I need more words, I use more words. Look at #161 and #634, for example.

278 what prompts this dialogue? tool didn't have a townread on keyser.

I felt I had something tangible to offer. I'd played in a game with townKeyser not that long ago and knew that his posting style tends to draw suspicion early in the game. I didn't want him getting lynched for that when I knew he did it as town. Turns out I was wrong.

282 "not a whole lot to work with so far" is weird considering he has loads of shit to say about ira. you guys remember ira right? he's comparable to the quiet kid that sits in the back in math class
keyser posted more readable content - far more

Either you're misremembering things or we have very different ideas of what "readable content" looks like. Up until that point Keyser had been basically puffing around, asking a question here and there, offering the type of early-game observations that don't amount to much, and posting GIFs. Just the one vote on Jaack I believe. None of it looked all that weird or out of place, and it wasn't until later that Keyser started pushing ira or HA. Whereas ira had some inconsistencies and weirdness early on.

315 it's probably null that it was a continued dialogue because tool this game has been good with follow up on everything - very good - but again with the making sure that it's known that it "doesn't necessarily make keyser town"

if that's town trying to make sure that people in the game aren't reading people for silly reasons then tool's read on keyser is mostly irrelevant to the conversation right?

I'm confused by the last question. Why was my read on Keyser irrelevant, and what does that have to do with your reading of the post?

I'll reiterate that the reason I posted that is because I had what I considered useful meta on Keyser. But it wasn't the "they only do this as town and never as scum" type, it was the "I know they do this as town and have no clue if they do it as scum" type.

[toolenduso]

People of varying confirmation:
Dunn

Sorry, I'm not totally clear on your thoughts on Dunn right now, and this only further confuses it for me. Yesterday you pushed Dunn all day. How do you feel about Dunn now? And why do you mark Dunn as being of "variable confirmation" here?

Wait now I remember.

When did you first start researching this/thinking that I might be scum?

I found it notable that of xyzzy, tool, and tyler, the only one to be open to lynching both of the other two D3 was tool. I mean, he wasn't really endorsing a tyler lynch at all, but he was setting it up for the future, following an xyzzy townflip, which he would shortly be pushing.

So why do you think it's more likely that scum (me, in this case) would keep options open on a player they weren't planning on lynching that day (tyler), as opposed to scum (tyler, in this case) just pushing between an already broad pool of choices, especially when their scummy-looking partner was in play (creature), and waiting until further down the line to start pushing the other player (tool)?

[toolenduso]

I have some thoughts on this current push, but I want to hear answers before I post them.

UNVOTE:

[Jaack]

People of varying confirmation:
Dunn

Sorry, I'm not totally clear on your thoughts on Dunn right now, and this only further confuses it for me. Yesterday you pushed Dunn all day. How do you feel about Dunn now? And why do you mark Dunn as being of "variable confirmation" here?

I marked Dunn as that because at the time I was discussing (D3) dunn's confirmation status was, well, disputed.

As for my opinion on dunn now, he's probably town. A big part of my belief that dunn was scum was that almost all of the people who had pushed a dunn lynch throughout d2 and D3 were confirmed town (jake, zakk, zach, TOF). Creature flipping scum puts a bit of a damper on the idea that no scum wanted that lynch. Also, dunn leading the flip from xyzzy to creature at the end of D3 didn't feel like a buddy turn to me.

I still hate the fakeclaim and everything surrounding it, but the supporting evidence is weaker after the creature lynch.

Wait now I remember.

When did you first start researching this/thinking that I might be scum?[/quote]

Going into today, you and Tyler were my top two scum candidates. My plan was to look at what the confscum said about both you and tyler, then looking at what you and Tyler said about confscum, with 2303 being the first part of that analysis.

Then I almost got lynched, which took my attention away, and then Tyler was all like 'let's talk about tool' so I figured I'd do that and then go to the Tyler part of my analysis. After that I'll be able to make my decision on which of you is scum.

I found it notable that of xyzzy, tool, and tyler, the only one to be open to lynching both of the other two D3 was tool. I mean, he wasn't really endorsing a tyler lynch at all, but he was setting it up for the future, following an xyzzy townflip, which he would shortly be pushing.

So why do you think it's more likely that scum (me, in this case) would keep options open on a player they weren't planning on lynching that day (tyler), as opposed to scum (tyler, in this case) just pushing between an already broad pool of choices, especially when their scummy-looking partner was in play (creature), and waiting until further down the line to start pushing the other player (tool)?[/quote]

As I said before, I haven't looked at Tyler's stuff with a fresh eye yet, so I'll get back to it.

My main point was that you've been very thorough with following up on everything, and, if you are scum, you laid out a pretty strong path to victory for yourself.

[xyzzy]

I don't really follow a lot of the logic behind arguments that toolenduso might be scum, but his writing in those last few posts feels a lot more aggressive/defensive than he previously was, and that significant tonal shift following pressure on him bothers me.

[toolenduso]

his writing in those last few posts feels a lot more aggressive/defensive than he previously was

There's good reason for that, xyzzy.

[Dunnstral]

his writing in those last few posts feels a lot more aggressive/defensive than he previously was

There's good reason for that, xyzzy.

Go on

[xyzzy]

well, of course it's because of the sudden increased pressure on you, but it feels less like trying to benefit the town by avoiding a mislynch and more like trying to save your own skin; it feels desperate, and given the relative positions of the town and scum at this point, desperation makes a lot more sense for scum.

[toolenduso]

Go on

it feels desperate

It makes some sense to me, in a weird way, that it came across as a little desperate. But it's more shock than anything else. I'll explain more after we hear from Tyler.

[Jaack]

Oookay, time to talk about Tyler, specifically, what scum said about Tyler.

HA talks about Tyler exactly one time, in his pitiful reads post 281. Weak town read, with some minor, pretty useless logic. HA's three townreads in this post are xyzzy, Tyler, and myself. He also has floating townreads of ira and dunn from before. I guess it's kind of noteworthy that HA mostly townreads players under some level of pressure in the early parts of the game (dunn, ira, myself, and xyzzy), with Tyler the universal townread being the one that sticks out.

So Keyser and Tyler talk between themselves quite a bit about various early game stuff (xyzzy, me and Robert). Nothing really strikes me as that notable until post 206. In the latter half of that post, Keyser sort of/kind of/almost insinuates that he scumreads Tyler without actually saying it. Here is the relevant section:

In other news,

re-reading gave me a townlean on Tyler.

Not entirely for the way he's playing

, though he is doing work (a surface-level towny-looking thing), but more the way that people started townreading him almost in kind of snowball fashion. It's striking me as the kind of thing where town say he looks town, impressionable town agree and scum hop onto the townreading wagon in an effort to have genuine-looking reads.

This is an interesting way/reason for town-leaning Tyler the Creator [based on the nature of him being mass-town-read]. I kind of switch off to the popular town/scum reads on D1. Have you found this observation-method accurate in previous games?

To paraphrase:
-Tyler is universally townread
-Keyser tends to oppose popular D1 reads

It's really weak, but I can kind of see this as scumbuddy behavior, but at the same time, it could also be scumKeyser trying to cast doubt on a universal townread.

That is all Keyser really has to say about Tyler - he never offers a tangible read on Tyler or anything
As I had mentioned before, Creature's reads on Tyler and Tool are literally identical. Creature does kind of defend his reads when Tyler calls him out for their mediocrity, but that's about it from this slot.

So overall, Keyser bussed HA into the ground, buddied up to tool, and mostly ignored Tyler. I am not sure at all what to make of this. Right now I wish we had more scumposting, because like 90% of confirmed scumposts come from the first half of D1.

As for Tyler, there are a few things I find interesting from the scumposts, but it just isn't very much to make a decision on.

Next up is to look at Tyler's posts about the scum.

[toolenduso]

V/LA until Thursday.

I'm traveling for work, and I will be able to post during that time but I'm just not sure how sporadic its going to be.

[Zulfy]

Prodding the ones who need to be prodded

[Bins]

sry my bad I've been having a bit of a medical scare so I'm kind of all over the place / not really here in my head

I honestly don't know what to add without getting paranoid.
Part of me wants to say that I believe Jaack's reaction more than I do xy's now but ugh. I'm just worried. I'm glad you guys are looking at other people to.

[Dunnstral]

So uh who wants to get this day over with

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: jaack

[Zulfy]

Votecount 4.04

Jaack (L-2)

: xyzzy, Dunnstral

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction, Bins, Jaack, Tyler, Toolenduso

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-17 23:22:00)

[Jaack]

Are you voting me because you're bored of this game, or do you have real reasons?

[Dunnstral]

Who should I be voting?

[Dunnstral]

sry my bad I've been having a bit of a medical scare so I'm kind of all over the place / not really here in my head

Good luck btw

[xyzzy]

I think either a Jaack or toolenduso lynch would provide worthwhile info, but I think I'm leaving more towards toolenduso now.

VOTE: toolenduso

[Jaack]

Who should I be voting?

I still haven't decided between tool and Tyler yet, so I can tell you then.

I'd just like to know why you're interested in lynching me.

[toolenduso]

Well I wanted to hear from Tyler, but it looks like people want the day to be over and I'm not sure when I'll have time to post again, so here we go.

The reason I was shocked at Tyler's case is because it made me think I was completely wrong about this game. Here's why:

1. His case clearly relies on reaches in logic.
2. Some of the wording indicates that he was sure of me not being scum. Not suspecting, or paranoid, as he had been before, but somehow had suddenly become

sure

of it.
3. I saw no reason for townTyler to suddenly drop his suspicions of xyzzy -- which have existed since the beginning of the game -- or of Jaack, and suddenly start scumreading me.
4. If Tyler is scum, he is putting himself in an excellent position to win the game by lynching me.

Before Tyler's case, town was basically deciding between Jaack and xyzzy for today's lynch. ScumTyler would look at that and see this scenario playing out:

Town lynches xyzzy today --> Jaack tomorrow --> then he has to convince town to lynch me in 3p LyLo

Therefore, laying down a case on me early would be a crucial step for scumTyler winning the game. It would put him in the exact position he would need to be in, which would be lynching xyzzy and then Jaack (in any order) and then getting the last remaining town to vote me so he could hammer for the win.

And if he could get me lynched today, it would be even better for him. Because who would really think to lynch Tyler over Jaack or xyzzy if I was out of the picture?

In short, if Tyler is scum then I think I was the biggest obstacle between him and victory because I was the least-suspected of the remaining town.

That was all what I thought at first upon seeing Tyler's case.

One of the first things that started bugging me about the scumTyler scenario was why he would wait until halfway through the day phase to pull out his case on me. Why not just come into today swinging at me? That would make more sense to me.

What

really

messes it up is that xyzzy is actually pushing me now as well. And that looks awfully good for scumXyzzy as well, because if xyzzy is the last scum then they would at this point be clawing for life. Xyzzy's suspicion of me essentially rides the coattails of Tyler's case, and in fact the post where they voted me looks pretty bad.

Look at what they said: That lynching either me or Jaack would provide info. Not that one or either of us looks like scum, but that lynching us would provide info. It just looks to me like self-consciousness of the need to justify their vote to town -- not to mention that it leaves a back door open for the next most likely lynch option not named xyzzy.

Another problem with a scenario where Tyler is scum is that it contradicts my theory about scum approaching HA's claim in the same way. That's part of why I was so taken aback when Tyler first posted his case and I started really thinking he might be the last scum. Now that xyzzy's jumped back in, well, I'm not sure. I'm still pretty wary of Tyler, but perhaps he really did just happen to go back in my ISO and psych himself into thinking I was scum.

Since we are approaching deadline...

VOTE: xyzzy

[Jaack]

I'm phone posting, so this won't be as detailed as I would like with references and all that jazz, but might as well get my thoughts out there.

Two things stood out from Tyler's iso:

1. He said multiple times that he didn't think that Keyser was bussing ha. I don't recall this being a primary point of discussion d2 (which is when I think when Tyler was talking about it)

2. He had some level of hesitance in lynching both HA and creature.
- He was the only person to go along with my Robert plan D1 to some extend
- While he did end up on the final creature vote, his preference seemed to be xyzzy or I.

On the one hand these feel a little to blatant of scum tells to me, particularly for a player who I think has been pretty strong either way.

On the other hand there is some fishyness there.

Hmmmm....

[Jaack]

@tool-did you have any thoughts on my participation in the growing suspicion of you?

I actually kind of liked your last post aside from the odd lack of me in it (at least in terms of things I said as opposed to things said about me)

[Jaack]

Now for stuff that's happened today

Unconfirmed people are jaack, xyzzy, tool, tyler.

Xyzzy has been open to lynching me or tool but not tyler
I've been open to lynching tool or tyler but not xyzzy
Tool's primary concern has been xyzzy
Tyler has seemed to be open to anyone.

Since I know I'm town, I can split the odds of everyone else being scum to 1/3. (I have opinions on who is more likely to be scum, but for ease of argument I'm simplifying it)

2/3 chance scum wanted to lynch me - 1/3 chance they don't
2/3 chance scum wanted to lynch tool - 1/3 chance tool is scum
2/3 chance scum wanted to lynch xyzzy - 1/3 chance xyzzy is scum
0/3 chance scum wanted to lynch tyler 1/3 chance Tyler is scum

The lack if confirmed town interest in lynching tool gives me so issues with that lynch
Tool also gets a few townpoints for not wanting to lynch me despite the conftown interest in that.

Lack of interest in lynching Tyler seems notable, but I can make arguments either way there. Lack of conftown interest in such a lynch makes things murky.

Uff, I've been thinking that circumstances have made xyzzy look town but their recent turn on to tool combined with the bad math (for townxyzzy) has put quite a bit of doubt into my mind on that read.