Mini Normal 1775 END!

mhsmith0 · Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:08 am

It's tough to say. I get the sense garmr is more convincing than boon, so I don't know who would be likelier to believe boon than garmr in wolf chat.

Also, typically scum don't provide useful info post self hammer, so it could plausibly be a "my buddy is a newbie or pushover" ploy to make people not vote his actual buddy. Then again, who the hell knows.

PS exp is dead. he's town.

mhsmith0 · Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:23 am

In post 1612, Garmr wrote:no ploy here my buddy didn't agree with me that they should shoot I didn't want boon or me to shoot.

Who's your buddy again? You can tell me, I promise not to spill the beans. Just put it in spoiler or something; no one will ever think to look there

mhsmith0 · Sat Apr 30, 2016 7:44 pm

This game is so drunk right now. Loving it. My off the cuff guess is Lowell, but I need to spend more time reading and thinking. My immediate reaction to texcat's death is basically the same as Lord's at http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post275758
just with a different player

Spoiler: lolol

I suppose we can all have a fun chat about who would have actually shot there today. I'm not familiar with any of you guys so I don't really know who that one points to.

PS If anyone is curious about A50's accusation before his death, go ahead and read over this gem that finished earlier today. He subbed in on day 3 and... well... see for yourselves

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=65662
if after reading that, anyone still thinks that he has the slightest clue about how to read my alignment, we can talk. Or you can talk and I'll just

Also, to be VERY clear, that "something he found out" was that he replaced into that game above right at that time and discovered that the slot he replaced into was NOT a wolf. He then proceeded to death tunnel me (I was town), to the point where his unending stream of bullshit got me to mislynch him on day 4. Which I regret (nearly two months of work down the drain just like that)... But I don't think you can look at his ISO in that game and NOT want to lynch him. Even dead chat was like "omg he's the scummiest". Anyway, I'm going to stop before I say something inappropriate.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 9:55 am

Frankly, I have no clue wtf the wolf team was doing. The A50 and texcat kills were atrocious. A50 is a VI and was in the ballpark of most peoples' PoE. texcat hadn't been a major factor, and was well inside most peoples' PoE IIRC.

This leads me to think that at least one of the following is true:

1) The kills were made as a frame-up of me, since I'm a newbie, or maybe

Sayaka

h_a, since that slot has been pretty peripheral.
2) The kills were made because the Sakura/Riabi slot is the last wolf, and they NEEDED to start to shoot away from the town reads to avoid the whole "so why aren't you dead yet" question
3) The kills were made as a frame-up of Sakura/Riabi
4) The kills were PR hunting gone wrong
5) The kills were just flagrant errors

There are six players left:
heuristically_alone (0):
Riabi (0):
Lowell (0):
mhsmith0 (0):
Dierfire (0):
ToastyToast (0):

almost certainly precisely one of us is a wolf. We have effectively three lynches left to win, presuming that Riabi is still claiming Vengeful (Riabi, please confirm). If Riabi is NOT still claiming Vengeful, it's only two lynches. Either way, we really ought to be good at this stage.

First question I'd have is how familiar people here are with each others' wolf metas. Is there anyone here that seems especially likely to make "bad" NK's? I don't think I've played with anyone still alive as any alignment, and I REALLY don't want to go meta hunting for peoples' NK tendencies if I don't have to.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 12:26 pm

@ h_a: any other results? or just the one? Given that there's just one wolf left, I'll submit that as evidence that clears me, but I'm not sure it clears you.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 2:56 pm

@h_a:
1) In your opinion, why did the N1 investigation of my slot in particular make sense?
2) What action, if any, did your slot take N3?

@all: If I understand correctly, h_a is claiming some form of JOAT. Is it "normal" to have both a town-aligned JOAT and a town-aligned JK in this size game?

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 3:18 pm

Right, that's night 4 that you commuted. What about night 3? Also no action?

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 3:43 pm

FWIW, skimming the Sayaka-Maestra-alone triple ISO, at the very least your slot seems to have played this reasonably consistently with what you're claiming (Sayaka's seemingly out of nowhere #1 town read of me early D2, Maestro's "I see why this slot was unconcerned" bit, etc.). But a few things trouble me:

1) I have no idea if JK+JOAT is reasonably balanced or not. Especially given that day talk is dependent on a specific role instead of simply existing.
2) I'm not sure where Maestro was going picking a (drunk) fight with me a while back. Seems a bit odd given his mod-confirm of me.
3) I'm not sure why Sayaka would have investigated me out of everyone here. It seems random. Like, newbies are generally easier to read than experienced players. I guess I need to think on whether that makes sense, or if she just went random, or what.

I guess I need to think on this some more.

@all: presuming the JOAT claim (cop/tracker/commuter), is it standard to do a cop investigation first off the bat? Or is it more normal to wait on that? I haven't been JOAT before, so I don't really know what standard behavior there is.

/ninja'd: Lowell, please confirm that N3 you did nothing.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 3:53 pm

@Toast: can you give us an update of your chart? And which of those three slots (leader/sheep/lurker) would you put yourself in, and why?

@alone: given that you had Lowell as a "no action" on N3, why were you "most confident" for Lowell as mafia in 1580? It's obviously not a hard clear of any sort, but given only two wolves left, it's a mechanical "makes it less likely" sort of thing, I would think.

@Lowell: do you have updated reads? D4 you thought it was me and dier at 1521? Still think it's dier? Still think it might reasonably be me?

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 5:01 pm

In post 1638, Lowell wrote:Yes, voting me makes all sense. I'm sure we have our shit together enough that both leading wagons were scum.

Kind of a weird comment for someone sitting on zero votes right now. Who do you think is a better wagon?

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 5:01 pm

PS @Lowell: Please confirm you did nothing N3.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 8:51 pm

In post 1641, Lowell wrote:I did nothing

Obligatory https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpdgSKVsFu8

More seriously, who do you think is a better wagon than you today?

mhsmith0 · Sun May 01, 2016 9:37 pm

Re-reading day one. REALLY weird wolf team activity if Lowell was the third. Garmr just kind of sitting on that wagon, boon not really trying all that hard to undo it. And it was town who drove the Madonna wagon pretty hard. I won't say that's clearing, and need to re read the rest, but Lowell may not actually be the right lynch. Not really sure who would be though. More re reading to come I guess.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 5:58 am

@all: if we believe alone's claim, then we had a JK, AND a JOAT, AND a universal backup. Is that normal/balanced? I'll admit not really being familiar with how this tends to work, but that seems a bit unbalanced off the cuff, especially given that mafia's day chat depended on one specific role staying alive. Throw in Garmr hammering right after alone voted... I dunno.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 12:20 pm

I feel like I'm talking to myself, which is always fun. Anyway...

So a bunch of games don't bother listing out roles on page 1 after they're finished, which is super annoying, so I only compared to two:

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=63200
mafia has three goons, town has a JK, a cop, and a 1-shot vig

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=63461
mafia has two goons and a RB, town has two masons, and a BP, and a doc

Comparing to this game...

mafia has a goon, a day-talker, and a ___
town has a JK, a claimed JOAT, a universal backup, and ___

So unless town has some other kind of notable PR(s), I think alone is reasonably clear at this point. If someone with actual experience in modding or game creation/review wants to counter this logic, feel free. But if a JK, cop AND one-shot vig vs three goons is a balanced setup, then I can't think that JK/backup and all VT vs even two goons + day-talker (much less potentially something more on the mafia side) is also balanced.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 12:23 pm

PS That said, it'd be hilarious if we had two different mafia fake claim JOAT in the same game. I'd also wonder why this slot didn't go nuts on boon's fake claim, but Sayaka literally wasn't around at the time, so I guess that explains that.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 12:40 pm

Actually... one other question (I know, I know, it's annoying). Is it standard procedure for a sub to be told the results of his slot's prior night actions? On MU (I play some there too) it's not, so I'd like confirmation of site norms here. If it's not standard operating procedure here, we may have caught our last mafia. If it is standard operating procedure, then never mind.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 1:42 pm

Figured as much. Worth a shot though.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 2:58 pm

Voting highlights:

1) Relying ONLY on flips

Spoiler: with flips only

2) From my perspective (with me as town, and presuming that alone's JOAT claim holds up):

Spoiler: with me and alone as town

Current thoughts:

Thoughts:
MHS / alone:
1) Alone is non-CC'd PR in a game which seems pretty likely to have at least three town PR's. He's also gotten a cop result on me of town, which makes me town unless I'm a godfather (which is no longer normal; that switched after game start, so it's not lock, but two mafia PR's strikes me as really weird unless we've got more town PR's who are slow-rolling). So I'm pretty cool assuming both me and alone are town barring something substantive arguing otherwise.

General thoughts:
1) It's REALLY weird that no one still alive was on both the boon and Garmr wagons. I was sort of on the boon wagon (helped drive it up then hopped off post PR claim), so I guess I'm the closest to that model of the last mafia? Good thing I've got that cop clear I guess

Lowell
1) Lowell and Boon being the ONLY two wolf votes on a Sakura wagon that was going NOWHERE is awfully odd if true. Possible explanation being that Lowell was gone towards EOD.
2) Post D1 Lowell wagons have tended to be awfully pure, and never QUITE got to the point where he was in serious danger of a hammer (though he was in danger on D1). That feels like a suspicion point to me.
3) Alone's "lowell stayed home on N3" result isn't clearing, but is a small plus point. I can see the "well the jig is up with Garmr getting JK caught so Garmr does all the kills" logic, so it's a minor point, but it's not totally zero.

Sakura/Riabi
1) VERY little pressure on that slot post Boon lynch. If that's bussing for town credit, it's worked beautifully.
2) Interestingly, that slot post D2 has been well away from the main wagons. Very plausible bus+coast strategy.

GLW/Dierfire
1) This slot has been voting confirmed town a LOT. On Madonna EOD1, on CT EOD2, on Exp EOD3, only vote on a mafia/unknown was Garmr on EOD4.
2) Didn't push the "statistical" case on Garmr so much as essentially sheeped it after I made it (spent quite a lot of time digging into the specifics of the numbers, as opposed to the fundamental issue of "it's about 50%, that's way higher than 25%"). I don't have a problem with him doing any of this (we got Garmr after all), but I don't consider it especially clearing. I got the "let's vote Garmr or Lowell" sense from him, and if he was the third, in a board with a decent number of people suspecting Garmr, it makes reasonable sense as a mafia to try and trade Garmr for Lowell and hope the created town credit holds up (or that town is out of ideas on MYLO).
3) The Texcat NK may point to him in an interesting manner. He'd explicitly town read texcat at 1591; in a board which was suspecting her, that might have been something he didn't really want to deal with going forward. That's a bit WIFOM-y though. Minor point more than anything.

Knight/Toast
1) Was on Lowell EOD1 along with Garmr. Worth digging into to see if it was an awkward voting pair, but it'd be a bit odd for buddies to stay bunched together like that on a wagon that was that far out of style.
2) First on boon D2, but 682 and 683 don't really have the feel of bussing.
3) Pushed back against Garmr lynch.

Overall conclusions:
1) I'm town, I've seen nothing like a CC (or "that role wouldn't be normal/balanced in this game" argument) against alone, so that makes him town.
2) I'm not 100% town reading toast, but right now I feel like he's the least likely mafia of those remaining, barring something notable pointing against knight on the D1 lowell vote, or anything else on toast on re-read.
3) PoE right now is: Dier, Lowell, Riabi, in some order. Not sure which order yet. Need to think on things a lot more.

Anyway, that's where I'm at and where my PoE is at. Alone likes the Riabi wagon. Lowell doesn't like the (currently nonexistent) Lowell wagon. Toast says PoE is alone, Lowell, Riabi. Where is everyone else at?

mhsmith0 · Mon May 02, 2016 4:26 pm

Lowell, Dier, Riabi, Toast, can you link your last couple town and mafia sided completed games? I won't get around to meta diving ASAP, but I may over the next few days and would rather not have to add "finding the right games" to my task list. (Lowell's user page http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lowell seems to either be out of date or not easily sorted).

PS @Lowell: you clearly COULD be the last wolf, but I'm not especially sold on any of the three in my PoE right now. So at least as far as I'm concerned, there's plenty of room for you to argue the point.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 03, 2016 10:17 am

*eagerly awaiting wherever this may end up going*

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 3:45 am

Tex is dead. Are you paying attention at all Lowell?
Ps what's my obvscumminess?

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 5:15 am

In post 1666, Lowell wrote:oh, no, I guess not. Just went by the "alive" list on page 1. blame the mod, not me.

Given that it's been a topic of discussion today, I'm gonna have to go with

derpclear denied

(that may be my new favorite mafia phrase btw

)

PS You may enjoy http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7885399. Well, presuming alone's claim holds up, I guess there's about a 25% chance you won't...

But more seriously, how familiar are you with the rest of the field? Who here has a bad night game?

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 6:28 am

FWIW, right now I get the sense dier is going to in some manner counter-claim alone. I am 100% not voting ANYONE until that situation gets cleared up.

Frankly, a game where mafia has a PR (apparently it's generally "normal" for it to be night talk only barring a PR like we have, unless I'm misunderstanding site norms somehow) and town only has a JK and a backup seems strangely mafia-sided compared to site norms (based on my admittedly half-assed research). Whether what seems like a pretty mediocre JOAT (cop/tracker/commuter) makes up for it or not, or instead overpowers the town, that I don't know.

Other info: I am not counter-claiming alone at this time. I am making no claim at all with respect to my role at this time.

PS FWIW, I firmly believe that my sig (courtesy of the anti head of the KC hydra, from the only non-turbo game I've ever actually been on the winning side of) does not apply in this game. Hopefully we win and I can get a sig less embarrassing than this one.

PPS My sig points to my games. My off-site games shouldn't be hard to find given the info there (the wiki won't let me link directly off site for whatever reason).

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 6:44 am

In post 1673, heuristically_alone wrote:Mafia would have more motivation to answer this call, while a town would be like whatever I'm town and that's too much work so it won't matter, even though it seems towny to oblige to this request. So far, Dier is the only to respond.

not really. I mean I've basically implied that I was likely going to start meta diving people (and the fact that I DID meta dive boon suggests that I'll likely follow through), and that it'd be considerate to let me avoid some of the work involved in simply finding the games. Off the top of my head, I don't find it especially AI whether someone is considerate or not about this sort of request; why do you think it's mafia-indicative to oblige? I mean, I kind of think it'd be a dumb mafia strategy to stonewall on this since I'm clearly going to try to find the relevant games anyway, but then again, two of the three NK's we've seen this game seemed dumb to me, and the third wasn't a good kill so much as it was a super-obvious kill (Garmr bitching about the N1 kill decision suggests that one also might have been dumb, but that's WIFOM-y so I'm fine with ignoring that piece of evidence at this time).

PS Have you ever fake claimed as mafia before? Trust me, I'm going to look. Might as well answer it now so I don't have to waste my time looking.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 7:00 am

So as long as we're trying to figure out if alone's claim is real or fake (and I 100% REFUSE TO VOTE FOR ANYONE until that discussion moves forward)...

1) For everyone who's been here since day 1 (others feel free to weigh in too if you want): if you were a JOAT (cop/tracker/commuter), would you have used your one shot N1? And if so, who would you have used it on? I feel like I was kind of a weird/random choice. Like, maybe a mafia role cop might have checked me out as being a likelier 1-shot cop use on my slot compared to a one-shot town alignment cop doing that. Lowell (the day 1 counter-wagon) seems like the super obvious alignment cop target, with chilledtea (the hammerer) also pretty reasonable.

2) Given the claim of an alignment check on me, why would Maestro get into an argument with me? It seems odd. Maybe a playstyle thing, or a drunk thing, those are possible but I dunno.

3) If you presume that a JK/backup is "not enough"... is a JOAT like alone claims enough? Too much? What are your thoughts on game balance?

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 8:46 am

@alone: are you claiming any more JOAT abilities? Notably, do you have a 1-shot vig on your list? If you want to demur for whatever other abilities you may or may not have, that's fine, but I need a yes or no on whether you have a vig shot. If you're town with a 1-shot vig, town essentially has three lynches. If you're not, then we're at two. You need to clarify this point. Also, if you DO have a 1-shot vig, you're taking it tonight. Period. If you claim vig tonight and don't shoot, you get lynched. If you claim you holstered it for whatever reason, you get power lynched. No song and dance tomorrow about how "town effectively has two lynches left if they don't lynch me".

In post 1676, Lowell wrote:Anyone who doesn't use one-shot abilities N1 is a dumbass.

That's kind of side-stepping the actual point I was getting at. I'll break it out further:

1) Why does it make sense to use the cop shot instead of tracker or commuter N1?

2) Why does it make sense to use the cop shot on me instead of you, CT, or anyone else? Would you have done the same in his position? Is that a reasonable choice for target of that power? Given a "generic player x" read of the board, I feel like Lowell would be a pretty likely alignment cop target (counter-wagon, under a lot of suspicion, unlikely NK).

Moreover, given the early day 2 positions that Sayaka represented to the board at 601 through 603 (especially the bit about CT's hammer being horrible), CT would be a alignment cop target consistent with where she was representing her positions (i.e. I'd think she would REALLY want to know if that was just a bad hammer from town or if it was a mafia tactic).

and while we're at it:

3) Lowell, what do you think of the N2 holster claim?

PS why anyone other than alone would want to lynch Dier or anyone else without alone's claim being scrutinized and evaluated and is beyond me. The simple possibility that alone could fake claim and coast from his gambit to a come from behind him should be scary as hell. I don't know why I'm not seeing more concern about this possibility.

/ninjad: fair enough. That kind of situation is never fun.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 10:49 am

So at this point I'd say there are three potential lines of reasoning people could make to invalidate alone's claim:

1) "JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced in this setup, while JK+UB is balanced"
Personally I tend to disagree with this take, given the games I'd looked at in comparison. But I've never modded a game here, and this is my first mini normal here, so I'm not speaking with any kind of expertise at all (I know, I know, the newbie excuse... deal with it

)

2) "I'm a PR, my PR + JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced in this setup while my PR + JK + UB is balanced"
It's probably super obvious at this point, but I'm VT. If I wasn't, I'd probably have already made this argument.

3) "I'm a PR, and I have a result that specifically counters alone's claim"
Again, I don't have this.

Right now I can't make arguments 1, 2, 3, or anything else that specifically counters alone's claim. I feel like people should go on record as signing off on alone's claim (or countering it) explicitly keeping these things in mind. I want EVERYONE to weigh in on the validity of the claim before we do anything else. I know this is annoying, but I think it's important. With no counter-claims (explicit PR claims, game balance commentary or otherwise), we can move forward on an actual lynch. But I can't help this feeling that the claim is probably fake. It just feels off given the game state. If no one counters, then I'm wrong. Won't be the first time, won't be the last time. But I'm not doing anything else until/unless it's resolved.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 11:23 am

In post 1679, Dierfire wrote:I have no information that contradicts Alone's claim. The only thing that worries me is that he's reporting what appears to be a Tracker result (on Lowell N3) but calling it a Watcher result, which is the sort of thing that should be difficult to do if he actually has the PM in front of him.
If his claim does check out, I'll be looking at Lowell (I think that yesterday's wagons could easily have been cross-voting Mafia) or perhaps ToastyToast (who, having claimed VT, was apparently not communicating a clear result on me).

Dier, you've been in a bunch of games it looks like. Is it your opinion that, given the flips so far (mafia goon+daytalker), that town JK+UB is balanced, and JK+JOAT+UB is unbalanced? Can you point to any specific games you've been in where the roles are reasonable close to this flipped/claimed?

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 1:11 pm

At any rate... last call if anyone wants to counter alone. Because I'm going to have a pretty hard time believing anyone who's going to claim they were just sitting on a PR claim going forward.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 04, 2016 2:36 pm

I think the norm is 3 PR's (with backup counting as one of them when it exists). I think sometimes you see 4 when you have roles that don't actually do anything active (like masons), but I'm kinda guessing there. Unfortunate about the vig, but I suppose that'd be too much to shoot for. Lynch/vig inside Dier/Lowell/Riabi -> pop bottles. Guess we actually have work for it instead then

mhsmith0 · Thu May 05, 2016 9:39 am

In post 1693, Lowell wrote:Finally this dierfire wagon is picking up steam. Took you guys forever to just sack up and vote.

"Alone might be fakeclaiming" was a super important point to consider. I have every right to grind the game state to a halt until that got resolved.

@Dier: who among the survivors is likeliest mafia if you flip green? Based on 1591 you think it's Lowell. Still there or anyone else? I'm leaning towards you as last mafia, but I'm not sold on it yet (I'd consider Lowell and Riabi both as plausible last mafia instead). In case the wagon is wrong, I'd like to hear your voice on things.

mhsmith0 · Thu May 05, 2016 12:55 pm

As far as this Dier wagon goes, I feel like the votes on it are all gross. I mean, he MIGHT be the last mafia, but some kind of convincing reasoning would be super helpful.

ninja'd: yeah, that's probably fair, at least wrt the NK. The whole "is this a fake claim" bit I did feel like needed to be thought about.

Actually, that said...

Alone, Riabi: You both said that the NK points to Dier, and that read seem to be the main basis of your votes. Why does the kill point to Dier? Since this seems to be the basis for your votes, I'm sure you can effectively explain the reasoning to us.

mhsmith0 · Thu May 05, 2016 1:11 pm

Actually, since alone is the non CC'd PR, I'd like Riabi to go first. Riabi, you put Dier at L-1 apparently due ONLY to a NK read. That's a pretty strong move without much support behind it. You really need to explain your thoughts here to the rest of the class.

mhsmith0 · Sat May 07, 2016 8:59 am

VOTE: Lowell
I feel like this is the best option at this stage.

1) PoE: I'm not seeing Toast as mafia, I hate some of alone's posts but his claim is holding up... and I don't think the cases on Dier or Riabi are particularly compelling.

2) Proven mafia flips:
Boon's treatment of Lowell (the non hammer from a hammer-happy player) was weird, and Garmr's "boon almost outed the third" very well could have been this

In post 994, Boonskiies wrote:Lowell, I faught to save you yesterday. At least unvote me so I don't get quick hammered.

But IMO Garmr's treatment sticks out more:
- day 1 strong wolf read, suddenly it went away on day 2, little interest day 3, suddenly back with a vengeance on day 4.
- mutual RVS targeting is, from what I can tell, a reasonably common wolf play.
- chainsaw defended lowell by attacking chilledtea for vote parking, see 711. Also,

In post 727, Expedience wrote:...
I felt like Garmr was scum during n1 after Madonna was lynched from the way he was saying he would rather lynch Lowell based on not much, yet he still supported lynching Madonna (since it occured to me that both were probably town). And now like, I dunno, he sees an easier target (chilledtea) and suddenly drops his scumread on Lowell (who he had been tunneling all game)? To be completely fair I could see this coming from town, but it still makes me suspect him.
...

makes a LOT of sense if Garmr and Lowell are mafia together

3) That day 2 vote...

In post 1036, Lowell wrote:VOTE: sakura

I won't be happy until I've voted everyone! I don't have a case here, other than I believe boon and have strong townvibes on exp. So sure let's make this happen.

Normally it's really weird for two mafia to be together on a wagon at EOD like this. But this was a weird vote, and "Lowell wasn't around" is actually a completely plausible explanation for why he didn't move away from the Sakura wagon after it became clear that it was going nowhere.

4) NK motive. Probably the strongest motivation here was Lowell's, since texcat was hard after him. It's easier to "change" your read (wolf!dier) or just sit back and let the ML happen (just about anyone) than it is to shake off someone who's hard on your case. If the NK made sense at all (and I still think it was a poor kill regardless), it made sense from Lowell's slot.

5) I hate making this a reason... but it's a potentially good lynch for information. Lowell has been under fire a LOT this game... if he was town, then we can look a lot harder on how everyone has treated his wagons day by day. Without knowing that he's town, I don't know how we can fairly evaluate his interactions.

Anyway, Lowell is where I'm at. If I'm wrong, we have one more shot at it. But I don't think I'm wrong.

mhsmith0 · Sat May 07, 2016 10:13 am

In post 1603, Garmr wrote:Like when I was jailkeeped night one I didn't have a choose in making the kill I was strongly opposed only a idiot would have the person who the only person who was town read by the majority to make the kill in case of watcher or jailkeeper or some other role that could nab me. But we have this weird voting system that's like lynching aka majority rules gah. Hell I wanted to kill exp night one because I knew he would cast suspicion on me but boon managed to convince the other scum buddy to vote his way which is absolute bs. If I was left to take charge the scum team wouldn't be in such a horrible position but
no one listens to garmr
.

Don't even get me started on the fake jail keeper claim and nearly outing our other buddy by accident.

1) This was the "nearly outing our buddy" quote, fwiw

2) I listened to garmr... just (probably) not in the way he wanted!

mhsmith0 · Sat May 07, 2016 11:44 am

In post 1719, Lowell wrote:smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

Because ___? There's IMO a pretty decent amount of evidence against you, and I don't see the "Lowell is town" case beyond "town is too dumb to have had the right two wagons yesterday" and a bit of WIFOM stuff. If you think it's wrong, argue against it. "Oh it's wrong" isn't much of an argument though.

Moreover, I don't see any kind of strong case against anyone else. If you want to sell the Dier case as being correct, go for it. So far the votes on him seem to be "he talked about associations" and "because night kill". Is there much more than that? Because if that's it, I'd much rather lynch you first and then re-evaluate him tomorrow.

mhsmith0 · Sat May 07, 2016 12:35 pm

In post 1721, ToastyToast wrote:Lowell has had a wagon on him every day but it has always swung at some point. The pattern is actually strikingly consistent.

-Garmr did rest his vote on Lowell on Day 1 when the wagon shifted to Madonna. Not sure if this is something inherently scummy but it does stick out to me given Garmr seemed to always go in the Lowell direction.

My question from that though is...why Lowell? Garmr kept going back to that read. With only one buddy left after boons died, would Garmr have reason to vote Lowell-scum?

Also this is more just an observation but Garmr self-lynched himself because of his scumbuddy (apparently boonskiis specifically) but I feel like Garmr would be even more annoyed if his other buddy was Lowell. Like, yikes, I can't wait to see the scum teams convos if that is the case

If it was Lowell-Garmr, then they had to have been distancing D4, trying to create the idea that it's only one or the other (or they were just that pissed off at each other I guess). I also feel like wolf chat would be potentially amusing if that was the team. I mean, regardless of what the team was I now REALLY want to see what went down night 1

I just look at the game state and go, yeah, it COULD be Riabi with Sakura bussing Boon and then just resting on laurels after that, and yeah it COULD be Dier somehow, and yeah it COULD be alone fake-claiming... but Lowell just fits together better with Boon and Garmr than anyone else.

If Lowell was town, it's also just WEIRD that Garmr was super pushy on Lowell day 1 (while Boon basically bailed Lowell out), then basically ignored him wrt voting on day 2, then pushed on Exp day 3, and only then went back to Lowell day 4. But if Lowell was mafia... then it makes sense. If Lowell is mafia, the game state makes sense overall in a way that I'm struggling to see from anyone else. It's a more minor point (and WIFOM-y), but it ALSO explains why the third mafia would have listened to Boon on N1, given that Garmr was bussing and Boon was helping Lowell out. I'm trying to think of who would inherently be inclined to listen to Boon over Garmr, when Garmr seems to be generally more persuasive, and it's either someone who doesn't like Garmr out of game, or someone Boon was friends with out of game, or someone who in game had been buddied by Boon and/or angered by Garmr.

The only slot where I can really see Boon buddying up to in a meaningful way would be Lowell's slot. I mean, I raked in the Boonie points

so that's something I guess, but IIRC I wasn't much interacting with Garmr early on, and I feel like that N1 chat result would have been someone having been pissed off by Garmr... and among the living players, that sure seems like Lowell disliking Garmr's distancing/bussing and/or being grateful for Boon going to bat for him on D1.

I mean, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense, and the less I'm able to see any kind of disqualifying evidence. If such evidence exists, great, lord knows I've been wrong before and will be again. But right now I just really struggle to see Lowell NOT being partner #3.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 08, 2016 6:01 pm

Chilled tea claimed jailkeeper. He's dead. Madonna is backup, and alone claimed joat. Everyone else VT.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 4:39 am

In post 1730, Lowell wrote:What's say we just skip the last part and go right to lynching dier, the obvious final scum. smith, it seems strange that you of all people think associative tells are useless all of a sudden. be better.

What are the associative tells that point to Dier? IIRC your case was basically that he relied on them and that made him mafia. Are there strong tells that point to him? Given that you're very likely to be today's lynch (the case on you seems to be the strongest), if you want to build the case so that in case we're wrong, we can lynch him tomorrow, that'd be helpful to be honest. Right now I'm really not seeing much of a Dier case.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 5:06 am

I think you're going to actually have to spell out how it makes no sense, because I think it does make sense given Boon/Gamr's behavior, most notably:

1) Boon "going to bat" for you on day 1
2) Garmr seemingly strategically dropping his "suspicion" of you on days 2 and 3 before roaring back on day 4

Like I said, I could easily be wrong. It happens a lot. So if it doesn't make sense, explain to me how it doesn't make sense. IMO the evidence against you is pretty convincing, and the evidence against anyone else is pretty weak.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 6:10 am

FWIW, I really think the overall story of the game was:

Day 1 - Garmr bussed Lowell for town credit. Madonna stepped in to save Lowell and got herself killed off instead. Or, as I heard in a different game "unsuccessful bussing is the best kind of bussing"

Night 1 - Garmr's bussing pissed Lowell off, and they had a fight about it, Boon sided with Lowell, and then Garmr was forced to make the kill (and got blocked by CT)
Day 2 - Garmr stopped bussing Lowell, which made his positions start to look awkward and arbitrary (and he got called out on this), and Boon accidentally outed himself by going nuts over Toast's "lurker" assignment.
Day 3 - "Hang Exp day"
Day 4 - Garmr and Lowell bussed each other. Whether because of unresolved anger between them or because they simply didn't have better options, I don't know.
Day 5 - Here we are.

I get that it's a narrative and all, but as a story of the game, it all holds together in a logical and sensible way. It's not the only possible explanation, but I just don't see how it DOESN'T hold together.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 8:12 am

Since I really struggle imagine a world in which we don't lynch Lowell today, and really struggle to imagine that lynch not being the correct one, as notes for the future:

In post 1663, Lowell wrote:Offhand thoughts:

heuristically_alone: buying the claim, town
Riabi: looks scummy, but meh still think predecessor's argument w/ boon was real, town
mhsmith0: buying h_a's claim, town despite obvscumminess
texcat: totally forgettable player, tried to string me up instead of garmr, scummy
Dierfire: I don't remember what's happening here
ToastyToast: early townreads, town

VOTE: dier

If not, then tex. Either one is fine.

To me, this is a really gross vote. It's basically a "eh, screw it, let's just vote dier" sort of thing. I don't understand at all how I was "obvscum", and it was clear you didn't wnat to talk about it, which makes me think it was just fake. And the texcat read was sketchy; as if you were reading her mafia mainly because she was wrong, as opposed to specific mafia behaviors.

I also thought the underlying "I didn't realize texcat was dead" bit was non-credible. If you were aware of the thread state enough to realize that people had some interest in your lynch (though votes hadn't been made yet), you should have been aware enough to realize texcat was dead.

PS The fundamental problem with the texcat NK was that lowell really was the only person with kill motive there as mafia. Anyone else as the last mafia would/should have been happy to let texcat and lowell go at it, and more or less stand back and watch the last two mislynches go through. Even wolf!dier with his town read of texcat could have just turned that into a "sure, let's lynch lowell" on D5, and then D6 "changed his mind" and offed texcat, letting her take the blame for the D5 mislynch of lowell. I'm not really sure who each player (if the last mafia) would want dead, but any "last mafia" outside of tex-lowell would/should have shot anywhere else. For instance:
if I was last mafia: I'd shoot alone or toast. Shooting alone would mean I was scared that he might have another useful ability, and I wanted to lock in an "all VT" setup (especially true if I was godfather). OTOH, I could, and probably would, have just shot toast (a town read) as a "no one has special kill motive there" shot.
if alone was last mafia: possibly he should kill me to lock in his JOAT claim. The downside there is that he'd get "why are you still alive" questions on D6, so maybe he'd shoot toast or riabi or dier instead.
if toast/riabi/dier: lots of options. basically could reasonably shoot anyone outside of texcat/lowell and just ride out the wave. Probably would shoot alone, or me (due to alone's claim), or toast.

PPS That advice is probably a bit condescending, and I do apologize for that part. If it makes you feel any better, my wolf game is HORRIBLE. Like, to the point where I don't even get to think through night game because I keep getting lynched quickly. So basically I have understanding of strategy but am poor at operationalizing it and terrible at blending in with town. So you know, you can at least reasonably think to yourself that if MHS was mafia, the game would have been over before now

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 12:01 pm

No one seems to be in any kind of rush to end the day, so for kicks here's the voting history presuming Lowell is somehow actually town (and alone's claim continues to hold up):

Spoiler: with lowell as town

To me this game state doesn't really make much sense.

If the last mafia:
GLW/dier
D1: Off the Lowell wagon along with Boon, but hops right onto Madonna when she starts to look bad. Shows a clear preference for lynching Madonna there. Not sure why he'd do that as mafia, unless it was solely for the purpose of blending in.
D2: hesitant to vote (IIRC he was absentee), and then ends the day on CT. Odd but not impossible.
D3: hops on the Exp wagon right around when it makes sense to push it towards inevitability. Plausible.
D4: no hurry to vote Lowell. Sheeps my statistical case on Garmr. If Garmr hammered to protect a buddy on the wagon and it wasn't Lowell, it makes sense here.
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: happy to get onto Lowell. If last mafia, is looking to extend things however possible while under pressure.
Conclusion: possible final mafia, but the case doesn't particularly jump out at me.

knight/toast
D1: voted Lowell right alongside Garmr, stayed there through day end. Bizarre voting pattern to have two mafia bunching votes there.
D2: no rush to vote at all, until the boon wagon. If he's the last mafia, then he and Garmr hard-core bussed Boon, for seemingly little reason (and in that case, Boon was faking anger at toast as part of theater). To me this makes no sense at all.
D3: Hops onto a different wagon than Garmr. Plausible distancing behavior here I guess.
D4: Not voting at all. Weird behavior if last mafia.
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: Hesitant to vote, not in any kind of rush to just get through a mislynch. If last mafia, he's completely dedicated to maintaining thread position and "looking town".
Conclusion: I just can't see it at all. Like, if Toast is the last mafia then he has been amazing at looking town, barring my just totally missing the signs.

Sakura/Riabi
D1: On Lowell, then on Madonna. I need to look at how credible the wagon-switching was.
D2: Gets in fight with Exp, then (IIRC) bounces around a while, then goes nuts on Boon. Given the long-standing preference for lynching Exp (especially given Garmr's discussed fear of Exp), it's possible she pushed that, saw it wouldn't work, and then made it up by hard-core bussing Boon when things started to look bad for Boon.
D3: Well off of the Exp wagon. Plausible coasting on town credit. Need to re-look at the Dier voting to see if it was legit or not.
D4: well off of the Garmr lynch. It's a bit odd that Garmr would self-hammer with his buddy not on board, but that's what WIFOM is for. IIRC Riabi was kind of vote parking on my slot that day, with a
N4: no idea why he'd kill texcat when texcat would be tunnelling Lowell pretty hard
D5: happy to jump on the Dier wagon for "kill motive" (and he STILL hasn't bothered to explain his reasoning)
Conclusion: plausible final mafia, likelier than Dier off the cuff. The narrative of "bussing for town credit, then just coasting the rest of the way" reasonably fits IMO.

Overall, I still think we should lynch Lowell as likeliest mafia, then tomorrow (if we're wrong) probably lynch Riabi, with reasonable consideration given to lynching Dier instead. If someone wants to hard-sell lynching Riabi first I'll listen, and if someone wants to hard-sell lynching Dier instead of Lowell/Riabi I'll listen. But I feel like Lowell and then (on the off chance we're wrong) Riabi really should get us the win.

PS If someone has an explicit "Lowell is town because ___" case I'll listen. So far I haven't actually seen anything remotely convincing. If I'm just tunneling, I want to see the counter-argument.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 12:07 pm

edit to above: alone currently is on Lowell, not Dier. Missed that one when just copying over FAQ2's counts.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 12:50 pm

@toast: see
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=65746

Spoiler: alive

Spoiler: dead

For role flips. JK/UB are proven dead. Mafia has at least one PR (one is dead, and who knows what the final mafia role is). As far as I know, town never has just 2 PR's in this kind of setup (13 person normal, no SK), especially when mafia has 1+ PR, and especially when the second PR is a backup. So alone, by way of being the ONLY PR claim alive, has to be clear regardless of what I may think of his posting. That was the whole point of my discussion earlier today; I thought he might reasonably be fake-claiming, but everyone else has claimed VT, so he can't be fake claiming, and he definitely can't be a mafia JOAT given the town powers on the board if all others are VT.

PS the absolute final deadline for any kind of CC to alone is today's hammer. Anyone who claims after that hammer (whether today twilight or tomorrow) WILL be considered fake-claiming by me.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 1:01 pm

@Lowell: I really don't think you can survive today. So either come up with a really compelling explanation of why you simply don't make sense as the last mafia, or give us a really compelling explanation for why it has to be Dier. Right now I'm thinking Dier is the least likely among Dier/Riabi/Lowell, so make a serious attempt to change my mind on this. You say he's "the obvious final scum", so you really should be able to build a pretty compelling case if that's truly what you think.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 09, 2016 5:30 pm

Re reading day 4...

1) garmr and Lowell were basically "oh I guess I might as well vote for you". Quick voted each other but no strong drive to each other's wagons. Alone called it coordinated... and it looks that way to me. Like both were distancing but really hoping that some other wagon would pick up steam instead. Seriously, double iso them, from post 1500 on, and convince yourself that EITHER of them were particularly interested in the others lynch.
1503, 1509, 1514, 1521, 1523, 1560... Compare those to 1381 (garmr on dier), 1296-7 (Lowell on me), those seem a lot more invested than garmr and Lowell on each other.

2) That garmr lynch was bizarrely easy. No meaningful resistance to it once it got going. Where was garmr's buddy trying to save him? If Lowell was town, with substantial board interest in his mislynch, why abandon a plausible mislynch on Lowell?
If it was riabi, he was screwing around with voting me and being a non factor, even as garmr was in danger. 1568 would be an incredibly half hearted attempt to save his buddy, at a time when a stronger push might have done it.
If it was dier, he made an attempt to go for Lowell, and just more or less gave up. Ditto alone.
If it was toast, he just wasn't around enough to really impact things, but he's another who made no real effort to save garmr (though he was sniffing around other potential possibilities, so not impossible I guess).
If Lowell was garmr's buddy, though, he basically couldn't have acted to save garmr given that he was counter wagon, and again it makes sense, more sense than the other possibilities.

Frankly, I'm satisfied. It's not 100%, but I'm thinking something like 75% odds Lowell is the last one. And if we're wrong, we can deal with the remaining options tomorrow. Someone please either hammer or make a convincing argument that I'm wrong. This game state is dull, it feels like people are just sitting around for no good reason. Hammer Lowell or push hard for something else.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 5:22 am

Lowell, if you're town, please make a serious case for someone else as the final mafia. Given that I'm leaning Riabi if it's not you (and I think toast is too), if you really think it's Dier, it's incumbent on you to make an actual case. OTOH, if you're mafia, you're almost certainly not going to escape getting lynched today, much less today AND tomorrow, so I'd say just self-hammer at this point and move on to the post game.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 6:55 am

SO bored with this game right now. I know what it needs: more charts!

Spoiler: with Sakura/riabi as last mafia

FWIW, I can actually live with this as a case for Riabi being the last mafia. The Lowell case looks stronger to me, but the voting patterns are almost classic mafia team voting patterns (presuming Lowell is somehow town):
Day 1 - avoiding bunching, and Sakura is happy to lynch either townie wagon for scummy-looking behavior
Day 2 - Sakura prominently tries to get Expedience lynched (which plausibly makes sense if she's spooked about him going after Garmr), and then VERY prominently puts herself on the Boon wagon. Per https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-0x ... ef=2&pli=1

As a related point, you can say that if a scum is lynched relatively early in the game then it is pretty likely that at least one of his team mates was on that lynch for the credibility boost and for the tactical option (not taken) of jumping off if to help save his buddy if that play seemed viable.
...
If a scum is being lynched in a near landslide then his buddy or buddies are very likely to be on the lynch and perhaps prominently so…

Day 3 - non-factor. Throwaway vote on Dier. Doubtcasts the Exp wagon, but not so heavily as to actually derail it. Also makes sure that we know the vengeful claim was false; if Garmr was doomed sooner or later, then as mafia would REALLY want us to know that we shouldn't lynch her just for the claim
Day 4 - Riabi vote parks on my slot. If a gambit was involved from A50 in drawing the NK for no good reason, he bit on that one hard.
Day 5 - Happily hops on the Dier wagon without ever bothering to justify himself in any kind of remote sense.

Spoiler: with GLW/Dier as last mafia

I just can't see this. If this slot is last mafia:
Day 1 - Boon and GLW bunch on Madonna in a town vs town situation. Why would they try THAT hard on town vs town?
Day 2 - Dier lets himself park a vote on someone he knows is for real claiming. Basically just a WIFOM sort of thing, i.e. "oh mafia wouldn't have done that"?
Day 3 - Both mafia are actively on a wagon that had tremendous momentum anyway. It only makes sense if they're playing "oh mafia wouldn't have acted like this"
Day 4 - Dier preferred to be on Lowell, but found himself unable to figure out how to push Lowell to L-1 for whatever reason. Or maybe he wanted to hammer but the momentum never got there. Either way, it's kinda weird for buddies to behave like this.
Day 5 - Dier is early leader for seemingly no reason at all. It's WEIRD for three townies to jump that quickly on someone for basically no actual case.

Overall conclusion: if it's not Lowell, it's Riabi. If it's not Lowell OR Riabi, then I simply give up because my reading abilities are crap. As far as I can tell, the Dier case is weak as hell, Toast is town, and alone's claim holds up. OTOH, the Lowell case is strong, and the Riabi case is pretty decent too. So PoE says Lowell or Riabi, and probably Lowell. As far as I'm concerned, this game is solved.

PS I think the final mafia outed themselves on that D5 Dier wagon. Can't tell if Lowell or Riabi. But that wagon was just gross. SO gross.

PPS Lynch Lowell then Riabi or Riabi then Lowell. I'd prefer Lowell then Riabi, because I think the Lowell case is stronger. But unless there's legitimate reason to doubt the other four slots as town, or legitimate reason to doubt Lowell or Riabi as mafia, this game is over.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 6:56 am

edit: Riabi did say he voted Dier for NK motive. But what that motive was, I don't think he ever said. Regardless, it was a gross vote.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 9:33 am

Lowell, give us the Dier case. You're representing you're sure about Dier, so give us the case. Not "it's PoE", but an actual case. So give us the case for Dier as mafia and for you as town. If there's something important we're missing, just tell us what it is. If it's obvious to you, at the least it's not obvious to me.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 10:51 am

Very bad form. If Lowell was mafia with teammates left, self-hammering like Garmr did might make sense. If he's the last one, then he simply won't. People have to play to their win con, even when they're the underdog.

PS If Lowell is town then he DEFINITELY shouldn't self-hammer. Especially if he doens't think Riabi makes sense as the last mafia. If he's town, he should convince us that he's town, that Riabi is town, and that Dier is the last mafia. I feel like this is a hard sell... but I certainly could be wrong.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 11:36 am

In post 997, Boonskiies wrote:Toasty/Sakura/Almost/Garmr/Lowell were on my wagon. I'll bet all 3 scum were there. That was the most opportunistic wagon I have ever seen. Abused my freak out as nonsensical, which maybe it was, but opportunistic nonetheless.

In post 998, Boonskiies wrote:I actually believe Garmr's vote was the most opportunistic, so I want to say scum is
Sakura/Garmr/Toasty.
I can see Almost being frustrating town, and I've been town reading Lowell. This makes sense to me.

Soon after, CT moves to Garmr, Lowell moves to Garmr, A50 unvotes, Dier pushes against Garmr in 1020.

and on the flip side, Sakura re-ups the pressure, and Garmr is pressuring too. and texcat is doubting the claim. and TT doubtcasts Boon's claim.

In post 1008, chilledtea wrote:Boon, join me on garmr lynch then.
VOTE: Garmr

Boon then signals being OK with it without voting, A50 unvotes, Lowell votes Garmr, and then, with the momentum shifting to Garmr...

In post 1008, chilledtea wrote:Boon, join me on garmr lynch then.
VOTE: Garmr

In post 1009, Boonskiies wrote:Yeah, I'm okay with that.

@Sakura - what exactly are your thoughts on Garmr?

In post 1011, Lowell wrote:UNVOTE:

VOTE: garmr

It is true that I'm shamelessly sheeping here. But I want a lynch and am bored, and I never miss a chance too look scummy for some reason. Come to think of it I remember playing a game with garmr recently in which he was pretty helpful and good... in this game I've forgotten he's here entirely. So that's a bad sign.

In post 1012, Sakura Hana wrote:Boon is lying tho

In post 1020, Dierfire wrote:I'm on page 32, and I think that I'll finish tomorrow. A few things:

I haven't seen anything that I disliked from Expedience but I told Sakura that I'd give an opinion so I'll do a read in ISO when I'm finished to get something more solid.
I'm having a difficult time reading the interactions between chilledtea and Garmr but they did not seem to be Town/Town interactions to me. If anything, I was suspecting Mafia/Mafia. If Boon's claim is being countered then probably this needs to sit for a bit and be examined later.
My read on Almost50 wavered a bit when I read 764 and 765 (the tone felt weird to me).

Anyway, I'll be more coherent tomorrow when I finish.

In post 1021, Expedience wrote:
In post 986, Sakura Hana wrote:That is L-1, inb4 Expedience goes "OMG LOWELL IS SCUM FOR PUTTING BOONS AT L-1"
Nah, he's town.

VOTE: Garmr

and the thing is, it's only AFTER this point that Sakura really goes crazy nuts on Boon. ISO Sakura, and before 1012, Sakura is WAY more interested in lynching Expedience than Garmr. But from this point on (and at this point, remember that Garmr was in plausible danger), there's a HUGE back and forth that overwhelms the rest of the day. Was that "real"? Or was that "distract the board from lynching Garmr since Boon is already dead sooner or later as outed fake PR"? It could be the latter. It REALLY could be the latter.

Other fun stuff:
1)

In post 1433, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 1431, Expedience wrote:
In post 1430, Lowell wrote:Oh, damn. Garmr is bussing.
???
Vote Garmr then.
What.
Wouldn't the logical course of action if you think X is busing Y would be to vote the person with the largest wagon?

"Don't vote Garmr, vote Exp"

2) Triple ISO Garmr, Sakura, Riabi. They basically never talk to or about each other directly.

3) mutual discrediting of Exp who's pushing them both

In post 807, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 804, FA_Q2 wrote:Garmr (1): Expedience

In post 806, Almost50 wrote:Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:

<snip>
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
<snip>
Uh what.
Garmr is nowhere in this list yet Exp is voting him?

In post 1146, Garmr wrote:If boon is scum I could see expedience being boons partner with the way he is pushing for sakura's lynch.

So, yeah, it could be Riabi. Lowell then Riabi, or Riabi then Lowell. I'm no longer in the "it must be Lowell" camp. It totally could be Sakura/Riabi. If someone wants to sell me on anything else, I'll listen, but it's going to take a LOT of work to get me off of those two.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 11:44 am

@alone: with six players left, we have two lynches remaining, unless you've got a protect in you (which if true we DO NOT need to know). Also if you have a vig shot then we essentially have three lynches (and if you do, please just shoot whoever between lowell/riabi we don't lynch today).

PS if you have a jailkeep/roleblock shot, I'd suggest announcing it in advance of the night, so that your target is (presumably) cleared (I guess target could be a strongman, but that seems a bit OP for mafia given town PR's). If you have a doc shot or are BP, we simply don't need to know.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 12:05 pm

At this point I am officially bored of this game and not much interested in re-reading or doing more analysis. If someone wants to make a case that I'm wrong about something, have at it. Otherwise, I can live with either a Lowell or Riabi lynch today, then lynching the other one tomorrow.

In post 1755, Lowell wrote:Thanks, coach.

You're welcome

In post 1756, Lowell wrote:also, heur is very town. heur, smith, stick together.

Thanks, coach

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 12:25 pm

FWIW, that vote by Lowell on Garmr at 1011 may be the most legitimate argument against Lowell being mafia that I can think of. Why would Lowell put his second buddy in danger when buddy #1 was already a dead man walking, and in a way that isn't going to give him much of any town credit? It's odd play for sure if they were buddies.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 12:56 pm

@alone: Presuming it's Lowell or Riabi and we win, CT and Exp deserve a lot of credit for their work to nail Garmr, which was basically where things went to pieces for the wolves. A decent chunk of my Garmr case was just sheeping CT (and I was prepared to go back and mine Exp's work if needed as well). IMO town has worked reasonably well together, with only the Exp lynch sticking out as a big "whoops" moment.

Of course, if it's NOT Lowell or Riabi and we blow it, I guess I deserve a lot of the blame. *shrugs*

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 1:34 pm

UNVOTE:
The more I think on it, the sketchier the Sakura/Riabi slot looks. Plus I want the rest of the board to bother weighing in; it feels like I'm just talking to myself at this point.

Other notes
Day 3: Sakura soft-pushes Exp without bothering to be on the wagon, 1433
Day 4: Riabi soft-pushes the Lowell wagon over the Garmr without bothering to be on either, 1526, 1568 (not to mention role fishing at 1529).
Day 5: Riabi pushes Dier to L-1 for basically nothing, 1691

What's the town case on this slot again? Other than Sakura's hyper-aggressive push on Boon AFTER he fake-claimed and AFTER Garmr was in danger? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 2:45 pm

Yep. I kinda want to get it right today though. I'd also kinda like to see where people are with the riabi case before anyone comes in and hammers Lowell. I've put out pretty decent cases on both lowell and riabi, and I'd like to see where people truly are on the issues before I put up any kind of vote. Dier, toast, alone, what are your thoughts? Preferences for Lowell or riabi lynch? "Just lynch both and we win"?

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 3:17 pm

As of 1021, garmr was tied with boon and his wagon was gathering serious momentum, then ct went back to boon and Sakura and boon went hard at each other. Re-reading, it looks like very plausible scum theater, whereby Sakura and boon make sure that they can't be considered teammates while boon goes down, and everyone forgets about the garmr case.

Throw in Sakura and riabi basically doing NOTHING from their widespread town read position... Yeah, it really does look like a "bus then coast" model of behavior. I'm simply not willing to let riabi survive our two lynch shots. And I'm fine with lynching riabi first.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 3:19 pm

Ps "I'm going down, better vote for my buddy" is like a super obvious model of mafia behavior that boon easily could have been doing.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 4:28 pm

@Dier: I know what will help you... more reading!

The thing here is, boon was already basically doomed because his claim was fake; it was only a matter of time before he went down. And the thing is, if the team was Boon/Garmr/Sakura, they were ALL under suspicion at that point. If that's the team, then Sakura prominently going nuts on boon, complete with fake-claim of vengeful, makes it look like Sakura can't be Boon's partner AND it completely draws attention away from the plausible Garmr wagon (to the point where we basically all pissed off onto Expedience on day 3, which IMO looking back was town's worst moment of the game). Also, remember that Sakura showed a LOT of confidence in her read that she KNEW that Boon was lying. Was that knowledge obvious to you? Was it super obvious re-reading it? Or was she accidentally slipping that she really did know that he was lying, because she was his teammate?

But where I really think the story falls apart is day 3 on. Double ISO Sakura and Riabi, and look at it from 1259 on. That's just incredibly passive behavior from a supposed obv!town who's likely a NK target. Now, this gets dampened a LOT by the fact that Sakura got very sick, but it's more than the low # of posts (which is certainly explainable by her health issues), it's the lack of aggression or scum-hunting in the posts she does make. A town attitude towards being a widely town-read slot is to basically want to go out guns blazing and draw a NK for your efforts (unless you're a PR, which that slot wasn't); Sakura basically did the opposite of this in her posts on day 3.

And then if you ISO Riabi alone, regardless of the prior read from Sakura, he's not doing much of anything either. Day 4 his posts show a pretty clear preference for a Lowell lynch over Garmr... but he's not actually on the Lowell wagon, and he's not putting in any real effort to get me (his vote) lynched (he does seemingly try and draw out a PR claim from alone, which isn't a good thing for obvious reasons). It's also interesting that he's fine with the idea it could be a Lowell-Garmr team (1578, 1584), but isn't voting either of them, and his only direct push on Garmr (1578) is to suggest that Garmr's defense against being buddies with Lowell (as opposed to simply a defense against being mafia) is invalid. The whole thing reads like he's trying to either set up Lowell for a day 4 mislynch (with his own hands clean, or maybe as the hammer if necessary), or prepare for a post-Garmr lynch world in which he can sell Lowell as Garmr's buddy.

Moreover, compare Riabi's day 4 position (pro Lowell lynch over Garmr if we have to pick one, and sure they could be buddies) with his day 5 position (happy to vote for Dier for basically whatever the "NK motive" might have happened to be). The whole thing reads like he's hoping for an easy day 5 ML and then can go hard at Lowell on day 6 as needed.

PS both exp and madonna called BS on sakura's early reaction at 124 and 137. I'll admit to not being an expert here on RVS behavior at all, but at the least I don't think her early behavior is cause for a meaningful town points in and of itself.

PPS I suppose it's also possible that I'm over-thinking this. But Riabi as the last partner fits the game state pretty reasonably well IMO. I think PoE (mech clear on me, non CC PR for alone, behavioral reads on Dier and especially toast) gets us to Riabi and Lowell barring any kind of actual case against anyone else, and my current gut is pointing a bit more Riabi than Lowell. I'll try and re-visit this tomorrow or Thursday when I have more time. I'm still curious if anyone has an ACTUAL case on anyone outside Riabi/Lowell. If not, I think we have our two targets for the win.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 6:07 pm

In post 849, Expedience wrote:Garmr and Sakura are scum chainsawing each other, Almost50 is town who doesn't know how to comprehend sarcasm. That's all there is to it.

All I'll say is, the rat with a hat has a point. They really were chainsawing for each a good amount this game. Sakuras "boon is outed mafia after fake claiming, so I'll go crazy hard at him to get town read and kill the garmr wagon" bit doesn't make up for it.

VOTE: Riabi

Let's end this thing before mylo.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 6:11 pm

Ps ISO riabi. Just TRY and make a case that he's invested in town survival or finding mafia. He's trying to sneak in a dier mislynch before going hard on Lowell on d6. THAT is what he is up to. Lynch riabi, lynch Lowell if we somehow screwed it up, then pop bottles.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 10, 2016 6:39 pm

@toast: oh I understand. I sometimes (often) over post. Especially when I'm annoyed at a game state, like the one where nothing is happening. I'll re read tomorrow and either hammer Lowell or push harder on riabi.

Ps wrt garmr reads, it'd definitely be a ballsy play. But Sakura w garmr and boon legitimately fits. There really had been a decent amount of chainsawing going on between each other, Sakura going nuts really did only happen post fake claim, when garmr was in real danger, etc. and day 3 and on that slot has done NOTHING useful with its town read status. I think the reason why finding the last mafia was hard was because we let one into the town read group.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 4:34 am

Given that everyone still prefers Lowell, and I think it a reasonably plausible final mafia, I'm fine going with this.

All I ask is that if we're wrong, you re-read Sakura/Riabi, including my case on that slot. I'm like 50-40-x Riabi vs Lowell right now (the remaining 10% is "MHS is totally wrong"), and 40% is fine for this one. Lowell completely could be the last mafia.

VOTE: Lowell
And if I'm wrong today, let's lynch Riabi tomorrow.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 4:38 am

Either this game was:

1) Garmr distances Lowell hard;
Boon "saves" Lowell;
mafia dysfunction ensures

2) Garmr bails out Sakura and Boon from early pressure D1;
Garmr and Sakura chainsaw each other at various times D1 and D2;
Sakura sees Boon's fakeclaim D2 with Garmr as the new counter-wagon and goes nuts on Boon to grab town points and kill Garmr momentum;
after day talk is over and with the earned town cred, Sakura's slot basically goes dark

#1 is possible, so is #2. Gut says 2. We'll see.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 5:53 am

You're dead. Were you last mafia?

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 5:57 am

In post 1781, Lowell wrote:No one thinks that, not even you.

So who do you think it is then? I certainly thought it was plausibly you.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 8:31 am

Presuming Lowell isn't just trolling (and it'd be funny if he was), MYLO strategy:

1) EVERYONE re-reads the damn thread. If you want to wait until you find out whether you were NK'd, fine. But you all need to re-read it. It's under 1800 posts over the span of two months, that's not THAT much. Hell, I was in a game that had 1500 posts in under TWO DAYS. Now, THAT was too much for me (way too much in fact), but there's plenty of time to re-read what's happened here.
2) We discuss ALL of the potential options (not just "MHS rambles on about all of the options and everyone else just kinda lurks")
3) We lynch Riabi (or his replacement).
4) If we're wrong, we all blame MHS for being a dumbass.

PS If I'm NK'd, and you guys do a lazy wagon on anyone other than Riabi, I'm going to be super unhappy (unless I was wrong and you were right... then I'll be pretty happy). If you want it to not be Riabi, do the work to make sure you're right. Smith out.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 9:30 am

I'll re-read Dier. Not really seeing it, but I'll re-read. Feels like a really weird game state if it's him.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 9:59 am

Well I guess we can have Dier and Riabi/sub snipe at each other tomorrow. That'll be fun in its own way.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 11, 2016 12:18 pm

@riabi: be prepared to defend your vote on dier for "nk motive"

@dier: be prepared to actually spell out all of your "associatives" you've previously discussed.

I'll try to have better questions when board re opens.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 17, 2016 5:48 am

As the (nearly) conf!town here, I'm in no rush to quick lynch. That said, I'm struggling to see a case for Toast or Dier as the last mafia. So for now

FOS: Titus

And we'll see if there's good reason to re-evaluate going forward.

PS I guess I don't need to worry about alone possibly fake-claiming anymore

mhsmith0 · Tue May 17, 2016 2:19 pm

I had thought that mhsmith0 would be killed too!

IIRC you'd been talking about various associatives between slots, to the point where a good chunk of your voting logic seemed to be based on that (IIRC - it's been a few days since I've really been dialed into the thread). I'd like you to spell out in some detail where you think the associatives are pointing at this time, and what exactly you mean by them. I may follow up with some questions on your prior thinking over the next couple of days, but for now at least I'd like to know where your thinking is at.

mhsmith0 · Wed May 18, 2016 5:27 am

In post 1798, ToastyToast wrote:Why does the lynch make it nearly certain that he's town?

Alone claimed a cop check on me, and he flipped that he actually had a cop check. So mechanically either I'm godfather or I'm an investigative immune SK or I'm town.

mhsmith0 · Thu May 19, 2016 9:12 am

I doubt I'll do much re-reading before the weekend, and as the cop clear who's already made a case on the Titus slot (prior game day), I'd like people to do the legwork to develop their reads on who is or isn't the last mafia. Also, if anyone has a particularly solid case for why they cannot reasonably be the last mafia, please let me know.

mhsmith0 · Sat May 21, 2016 11:03 am

I'll be somewhat unavailable this weekend. Still leaning Titus as the last mafia, but I'm very much interested in what everyone has to say about the game state. Especially interested if anyone has a solid "I can't be the final one because ___" case.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 22, 2016 7:15 pm

If Sakura was mafia, then the plan was to give her town credit and/or to draw attention away from the building Garmr wagon. Drawing out a claim would at most have been a secondary benefit to the mafia.

PS Optimal town outcome on D2 would have been a garmr lynch, with mafia forced to choose between letting chilledtea live even longer (super dangerous for them) or killing him and making boonie the D3 lynch. Sakura's actions prevented this outcome. The question is whether this was inadvertent (i.e. she was town) or intentional.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 24, 2016 5:55 am

I'd really like your guys thoughts on the slots still alive. Town read, wolf read, null read, whatever.

I'll probably play around with an updated VCA when I get the time.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 24, 2016 6:07 am

Also, I THINK it's optimal play to no lynch today so that we can eliminate a possibility (even though presumably that possibility to be eliminated is me). That said, I think 4 heads is better than 3, so I'd like us to at least try and game solve while we are all here.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 24, 2016 1:15 pm

See 1738. Doesn't have final stuff from D5, but it's otherwise there in terms of key voting points (I think). I've greened myself as well given cop clear; I can try to undo that if you think it's helpful.

PS I also did examples with your slot and Dier slot as final mafia at 1747

mhsmith0 · Thu May 26, 2016 12:20 pm

Semi-prodge. Still leaning Titus, still need to re-read whole thread again.

mhsmith0 · Thu May 26, 2016 12:43 pm

Why do the NK's benefit Dier in particular, and what specifically about VCA points to Dier?

mhsmith0 · Thu May 26, 2016 2:23 pm

Texcat: all of her posts that mention Dier:

In post 1269, texcat wrote:Toasty, Can you explain your town read of Dierfire for me?

In post 1546, texcat wrote:
In post 1537, heuristically_alone wrote:
In post 1532, mhsmith0 wrote:CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

In post 1533, Dierfire wrote:The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.
I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.
Doesn't that depend on whether Garmr is town or scum? Couldn't scum use numbers to try to get a town Garmr lynched?

A50: all of his posts that mention Dier:

In post 964, Almost50 wrote:
In post 953, chilledtea wrote:I wanted to say the same thing except GLW has been replaced by dierfire.
OK, my bad. So DF needs to talk then.

In post 1113, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1112, Dierfire wrote:Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?
How about we ask the mod?

@Mod: Is "Vengeful TOWNIE" normal or not? Thank you.

As for the 1 for 1 trade, it is fine I guess.. except the scum would probably shoot her anyway, so that is even better for us. That and the fact she is very much willing to eat the rope to take Boons with her confirms her town alignment to me. Scum will NOT trade 1 on 1 even if it was for the claimed JK.

In post 1308, Almost50 wrote:...
Then check this out:
In post 313, Almost50 wrote:Top 3 scum reads (in order): Boon, Lowell, Sayaka (now Maestro)
Top 3 town reads (in order): chilled, Sakura, Garmr
Other weaker town reads (in no particular order): GLW (now Dierfire), knight (now Toasty), texcat
Null: smith, Material Girl , Expedience
...
Now let's inspect the suspect lists provided THEN and compare them to the NOW:
In post 806, Almost50 wrote:Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:
Boons, Lowell & Expedience (Almost)
texcat, Lowell & chilledtea (smith)
Garmr, texcat & Lowell (chilledtea)
chilledtea, Lowell & Boons (texcat)
chilledtea, Boons & Expedience (Garmr)
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
texcat, chilled, Sakura, Sakaya (Boons)
...
Now check the new ones:
Expedience & Lowell (Almost)
Expedience, Garmr & Almost (smith)
Expedience, Lowell (texcat)
Expedience, Dier & Lowell (Garmr)
Garmr, Maestro, texcat & Almost (Expedience)
Expedience + Almost50 + texcat (Toasty)
Lowell, Garmr, & Almost, (Direfire)
...

In post 1385, Almost50 wrote:I'm not sure yet. It does look compelling, and I wouldn't mind voting him, but Expedience is a priority IMHO. Then we decide who the 3rd scum is. (We only have two scum left, so it's an either/or between Lowell & Dier. I'm not too stubborn to see the possibility, despite the fact my reads on Boons and Expedience started off when they were fighting to derail the wagon on Lowell.)

Can you clarify any of this points to NK motive for Dier against either of them, much less both? I'm really not following your argument right now.

mhsmith0 · Thu May 26, 2016 7:23 pm

In post 1269, texcat wrote:Toasty, Can you explain your town read of Dierfire for me?

In post 1546, texcat wrote:
In post 1537, heuristically_alone wrote:
In post 1532, mhsmith0 wrote:CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

In post 1533, Dierfire wrote:The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.
I don't think a mafia would want to point out these statistics to town. This is just too pro town. I don't think either mhsmith0 nor Dierfire are mafia.
Doesn't that depend on whether Garmr is town or scum? Couldn't scum use numbers to try to get a town Garmr lynched?

In post 964, Almost50 wrote:
In post 953, chilledtea wrote:I wanted to say the same thing except GLW has been replaced by dierfire.
OK, my bad. So DF needs to talk then.

In post 1113, Almost50 wrote:
In post 1112, Dierfire wrote:Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?
How about we ask the mod?

@Mod: Is "Vengeful TOWNIE" normal or not? Thank you.

As for the 1 for 1 trade, it is fine I guess.. except the scum would probably shoot her anyway, so that is even better for us. That and the fact she is very much willing to eat the rope to take Boons with her confirms her town alignment to me. Scum will NOT trade 1 on 1 even if it was for the claimed JK.

In post 1308, Almost50 wrote:Am I delusional?? Is it not as obvious as I think it is??? Expedience & Lowell are the remaining scum, and we have 6 players willing to lynch Expedience, and 5 willing to lynch Lowell. What's with this "I still doubt smith could be scum"? nonsense?!

And whoever still doubts me needs to start playing THIS game. I had preliminary town leans on chilled, Garmr & knight/Toasty as early as #83. I called chilled vote on Madonna a bad one in #152 & requested him to vote Lowell in #160. In #211 I started scum reading Boons and never stopped since.

IUn #310 I clearly stated chilled and Sakura were my top 2 town reads and in #311 I defended texcat when suspicion was growing about her playstyle.

Then check this out:

In post 313, Almost50 wrote:Top 3 scum reads (in order): Boon, Lowell, Sayaka (now Maestro)

Top 3 town reads (in order): chilled, Sakura, Garmr

Other weaker town reads (in no particular order): GLW (now Dierfire), knight (now Toasty), texcat

Null: smith, Material Girl , Expedience
In #395 I clearly pointed out how Boons is defending Lowell using bad logic, and in #395 I reassert the connection between the two.

In #428 I defended BOTH Madonna & texcat and started town reading smith, and -again- I called him town in #445.

In #452 I highlighted another Boons contradiction. It might be worth mentioning Boons was distancing with Exp as well (read #418 in full).

In #499 I made it clear I had come to the conclusion Boons & Expedience are Lowell's buddies. I still harboured some suspicion regarding Sayaka (Maestro now), Madonna & texcat but ONLY if one of the prime 3 flipped town.

If you check #517 You will clearly see why I ended up voting Madonna despite having more faith in my reads on the scum trio of Boons, Lowell & Expedience. I evidently did not "fully" town read Madonna, so when it appeared like we might be risking a no lynch I did it with a grain of salt. Let me quote myself again:

In post 517, Almost50 wrote:
You don't vote someone you're genuinely town reading. Period. You may vote someone you're not too sure about if there's no other option or if your strong scum read is clearly not going to happen as a compromise, but "I'm town reading him but I'm still voting them" does look scummy.
In #526 you can find my case on Lowell (up to that point), but in #576 I gave in to the majority's will.

In #613 I restate the exact 3 suspects:

In post 613, Almost50 wrote:My top 3 scum candidates are Boonskiies, Lowell & Expedience. I would rather lynch either of the former two.
, and in In #673 I vote Lowell while pointing a finger on Expedience (again) and linking him with Lowell. The whole Boons thing from my PoV starting with him derailing the Lowell wagon as well). This was again outlined in In #674, and in In #675 I'm reasserting my town read on Toasty's slot.

In In #735 I ONCE AGAIN point out the Expedience-Lowell connection, and in In #749 I explained the Madonna mislynch and stated I was NOT going to do it again (i.e. I wasn't going to vote Sakura, clearly bc she was/is a strong town read for me).

At In #766 I point out how the D1 lynch was swiftly redirected off Lowell and unto Madonna, and in In #803 I pointed out Sakura's scummy BEHAVIOUR on the spot, but I implicitly maintained my town read on her.

Now let's inspect the suspect lists provided THEN and compare them to the NOW:

In post 806, Almost50 wrote:Here are the lists provided by others. Everyone has their own suspects:

Boons, Lowell & Expedience (Almost)
texcat, Lowell & chilledtea (smith)
Garmr, texcat & Lowell (chilledtea)
chilledtea, Lowell & Boons (texcat)
chilledtea, Boons & Expedience (Garmr)
Sakura, Sakaya, texcat (Expedience)
texcat, chilled, Sakura, Sakaya (Boons)
Mine is the exact same one. I lynched one and pursuing the same other 2.
Smith's 3 have changed completely and he didn't have Boons on the initial 3 and didn't vote him either <<== ALARMING
chilled lynched one, still has another, and has added a 3rd due to chilled NK.
Garmr also lynched one, still has one, and has added 2 instead of chilled.
Expedience had 3 not including either of the day lunch or the NK, and his updated list consists of 4 sharing only one name of his previous list <<== ALARMING
Boons list had chilled (flipped town), Sakura (obv!town), texcat (strong town) and Sakaya/Maestro (not a prime suspect of anyone else).

Sakura has yet to provide an updated list. Her's was "Expedicen+Boons+(Lowell?)" (from #833 or Exp/Lowell + texcat (from earlier: #808 & #809). I -of course- would count more on the most recent of the two.

In #946 I updated my read on the Sayaka/Maestro as well. That slot was no longer scum read by me (admittedly though it still is my weakest town read, and I would go there if either of Exp/Lowell flips town by some miracle).

Now if you check the "old" lists again you would see everybody had at least one of Boons/Lowell/Expedince, but neither Experdience nor Boons scum read eachother nor put Lowell in theirs.

Now check the new ones:
Expedience & Lowell (Almost)
Expedience, Garmr & Almost (smith)
Expedience, Lowell (texcat)
Expedience, Dier & Lowell (Garmr)
Garmr, Maestro, texcat & Almost (Expedience)
Expedience + Almost50 + texcat (Toasty)
Lowell, Garmr, & Almost, (Direfire)

Everybody has at least one of Expedience/Lowell but expedience doesn't have Lowell even after completely renovating his list.

All in all.. I'm begging you guys to pay more attention and connect the dots. I have other games to attend to, and I do have a life, but I do my best. We need to lynch Expedience today, and we can lash at eachother for the next 2 days with no problem. I'll let you all lynch me just for the fun of it. Or we can all vote Sakura also for the fun of it. We can lynch most everybody BUT Lowell, Maestro & smith in the next 2 days to keep it interested while the town goes into MyLo. Just please unite for this one last time.

In post 1385, Almost50 wrote:I'm not sure yet. It does look compelling, and I wouldn't mind voting him, but Expedience is a priority IMHO. Then we decide who the 3rd scum is. (We only have two scum left, so it's an either/or between Lowell & Dier. I'm not too stubborn to see the possibility, despite the fact my reads on Boons and Expedience started off when they were fighting to derail the wagon on Lowell.)

Almost50 made what looks like a very offhand comment all the way back in D2, far before he was killed. That's an incredibly tenuous connection to Dier to justify NK motive IMO.

And Texcat was super strong on Lowell being mafia, to the point where a really obvious mafia strategy would be to stand back and essentially let them go at each other and be the last two mislynches.

tbh, in neither of these instances do I see any meaningful motive for Dier in particular to want either of them dead. Frankly, I'm pretty skeptical that this is a sincere read, Titus.

I'll re-read over the weekend, but for now FOS: Titus.

mhsmith0 · Thu May 26, 2016 7:24 pm

My apologies for the above post; for some reason when I hit submit it copied in the quotes I'd been gathering from the previous set.

mhsmith0 · Fri May 27, 2016 1:09 pm

FWIW, we've had five lynches, and two have been on mafia. IMO that's a pretty reasonable rate given that we've had virtually zero help from PR actions (one NK block through a jail, one cop clear of my slot, and that's it).

PS Can you walk through
1) how you think VCA clears TT (I think he's pretty clear as well but want to know why you think it)
2) how (or whether) you think VCA clears your slot

mhsmith0 · Fri May 27, 2016 7:14 pm

Oh lord. I just realized Alones slot not only didn't bodyguard ct, but didn't even watch him n2. That's just horrific. NO WAY should d3 have been anything other than "hang whoever shot ct" day.

mhsmith0 · Sat May 28, 2016 9:17 am

@Titus: I dunno. that count was 1019, which happened as the air was leaking out the boon wagon and garmr was building up. Why do you think that was a particularly notable time for mafia to have avoided bunching onto Boon?

PS I also hope you feel better soon.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 29, 2016 7:01 am

In post 1848, Titus wrote:@Mrsmith, Even if that's so, why would scum be the last to leak and not leak onto me (Sakura).

My working theory is that it's because Sakura was the last mafia slot, and they basically decided that if Garmr was going to be the counter-wagon, then Boon needed to be sacrificed and the Boon-Sakura fight needed to completely swamp everything else going on on the board. If Sakura was mafia, then I think it all makes sense.

I'm trying to think of a different way that day holds together, knowing now that Boon/Garmr were mafia.

For instance, if it was ToastyToast, then maybe he was just early on the distancing/bussing process and Boon just screwed up the engagement.

Or if it was Dier, then he's just intentionally off the Boon wagon, presumably just for the sake of WIFOM'ing a "well the mafia would have been on Boon for the town credit" type process.

Either of those may make sense I guess, but the Sakura explanation makes a lot more sense IMO. Still need to re-read and re-think, but that's where I am.

Also, Riabi looked pretty independently wolfy to me, so that doens't really help either.

mhsmith0 · Sun May 29, 2016 5:06 pm

Only like a day left. You guys want to just no lynch it at this point? I still think it's Titus, but I wouldn't swear to it. No one seems to be much motivated to build a case for why they're town or someone else isn't. Kinda makes it difficult to see where the last wolf is hiding.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 8:25 am

In post 1851, ToastyToast wrote:Hey guys, sorry about not posting. I should've declared a v/la as I've been away from the inter webs all weekend. I apologize for my lack of investment recently.

I am of the opinion that a no lynch isn't the end of the world, if only because Mhsmith could be a godfather + the kills thus far haven't made much sense. That said, I'll get in another post today.

I will say for the absolute record that my night game flat-out isn't this bad. If I was final wolf, I 100% would have let texcat and lowell both survive and essentially organize each others mislynches. I mean, maybe it's WIFOM and all that for me to point it out at the time, but the texcat kill was really dumb if I were the last wolf.

I'd also suggest that the A50 kill was pretty dumb if I was the last wolf as well (though Garmr was alive at that point as well, so I suppose maybe you think he was dumb on that front instead); why would I shoot someone who "knows" that I'm a wolf for "reasons"? Like, maybe if I was cop-hunting I might have thought about it, but alone had claimed a cop clear on me, so if I was the godfather, then I'd have KNOWN that it couldn't have been a cop check by A50. Honestly, A50 pulling that stunt basically right as he was subbing into the newbie game (where, as town, he performed an atrocious tunnel on me, when I was [IMO, and the whole graveyard agreed] very obviously town) had me head-scratching about what he could possibly have been up to, but IIRC I'd figured it was related somehow.

PS If I was actually wolf than this would be BY FAR the greatest performance I've ever had. I've been alive in four days as wolf/SK and have been lynched in three of them (and barely survived the day there was a D1 mislynch). Feel free to skim my meta; my wiki lists out all of the non-turbo games I've ever taken part in (I think with links - non-activated links for off-site because the wiki editor blocks direct linking).

PPS Your thinking that the bizarre NK's point to me is IMO pretty sketchy, just as sketchy as Titus saying that same on Dier with just as little substance behind the "read". This sort of thing makes me feel better about Dier, both because he absorbed a pretty (IMO) shit wagon the previous day, and because I can't find any actual evidence of him bullshitting like this.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 8:28 am

EBWOP: I don't know 100% that my night game isn't this bad, but the one time I survived long enough to get a shot, I shot the cop, and had pegged him by post 100 in the game (it was a game with random N0 villa check, and his reaction to pressure on that player was pretty seer-y). So, you know, I really don't think I'd have made shots that bad, especially if it was all up to me.

FWIW, that was also the game that I cribbed the set of "wow your kill sucked" gifs, which was directed towards my final teammate in that one.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 9:28 am

In post 1857, Titus wrote:Godfather is explicitly not normal at the moment, ftr.

True but this game started before the switch (I believe). That said, it's IMO a pretty big reach for that to be in the game, and I suspect unbalanced.

Town: JK, UB, JOAT
Mafia: Encryptor, Goon, Godfather

I mean, I guess it doesn't matter quite as much given that the cop shot was one-time anyway, but that feels a bit scum-sided IMO. That said I haven't played many normals, so I could be wrong.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 9:35 am

we have a bit less than 24 hours left, so I'll try and re-read and put some thoughts into thread before tonight. Probably no lynch is optimal (unless we all agree on the right target), although the down side is it makes it easier to quick-win on final day for the last wolf.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 10:31 am

In post 1862, Dierfire wrote:Here's where I am.
I've read the game multiple times. I'm still uncertain, but I don't think that I'm likely to find anything by reading again that will help me. We don't need a lynch here, so if someone is actively working on something and needs more time, then we can try again in LYLO. Otherwise, I have no powerfully compelling case to bring against ToastyToast, so it seems likely to me that we'll need to lynch between me and Titus.

VOTE: Titus

That's pretty wishy-washy, Dier. Do you have a solid town read on Toasty, or is this just preservation?

PS Since "please work to build a solid 'last wolf' case" hasn't been successful, how about people discussing their town reads? Can we at least get that into thread?

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 11:18 am

In post 1865, Dierfire wrote:
@Titus

Presumably if you're Town, I'd need to present a fairly strong case against ToastyToast to allay your suspicions and convince you to vote for him (ToastyToast can't be lynched without your vote, in MYLO or LYLO). I have no such case, and I am unlikely to find one by reading yet again.

@mhsmith0

I don't understand the question. I felt good about both slots when we lynched Lowell. Obviously now I realize that one of them has to be Mafia, but other than that fact, I have no great insights to share. If you'd like me to go through why I was reading them as Town, I can reiterate those points. I'm leaving for dinner now, but I'll pull them together when I get back.

The question would be, do you have something meaningful separating them NOW, or is it just "well I gotta pick someone so sure, I'll pick Titus"? And failing that, do you have a solid case on yourself as town? Because "meh I don't really have an opinion" is pretty wolfy, because it's a lot easier to honestly say "meh whatever" when you know all of the answers are wrong, and don't feel like you can effectively sell a case for the final mislynch. If you're town, you should have an opinion and want to game solve.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 11:39 am

In post 1773, ToastyToast wrote:Also random thing I noticed: garmr posted a reads list pretty early day one. Lowell was a primary scum read of his wheras both Sakura Hana and Boonskiies were town reads. Hard to say if scum would straight up town read all their scum buddies or try to distribute them somewhat.

Also I think I'm going to revisit Garmr tonight because this is still stuck in my mind. I think if we're going to get any associations then it'll be via garmr and not boonskiies.[/quote]

I suspect you're right. OTOH, maybe boon flat screwed up somewhere. Will also spend time tonight reading.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 1:43 pm

Sure. Try and imagine a situation in which it's each of the other three players as the last mafia, and try and figure out how the game state makes sense given that scenario.

The sakura/riabi/titus one seems relatively obvious to me, as I've laid it out. I need to work on the TT/dier ones a lot more to figure out if they're legit or not.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 8:38 pm

yeah might as well make it official.
VOTE: no lynch
Let's get this shit done tomorrow.

mhsmith0 · Mon May 30, 2016 8:40 pm

PS I ended up working late, so I didn't read. Sorry. I suck.

off the cuff I'd say

Towniest

TT
Dier
Titus

Wolfiest

But TT being the last wolf wouldn't shock me. So gl.

mhsmith0 · Tue May 31, 2016 10:06 am

I'm just glad we're finally stringing up no lynch. That dude really had it coming

mhsmith0 · Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:06 am

In post 733, Expedience wrote:
In post 732, Garmr wrote:
In post 727, Expedience wrote:VOTE: Garmr

I actually read the posts and it's just stuff like "if u were town u wld be more openminded!! where is town motivation??", and it's reachy and dumb.

I felt like Garmr was scum during n1 after Madonna was lynched from the way he was saying he would rather lynch Lowell based on not much, yet he still supported lynching Madonna (since it occured to me that both were probably town). And now like, I dunno, he sees an easier target (chilledtea) and suddenly drops his scumread on Lowell (who he had been tunneling all game)? To be completely fair I could see this coming from town, but it still makes me suspect him.

In 292 he reads Sakura, knightmare and I all as town and I remember it throwing me off a bit, but I think it should've been something that made me look more intently at him. I read the post again and he calls me town while saying that my push on Sakura is bad, even the way that he says it sounds really concilatory.
So can you actually make a point as to how I am scum?

Disagreeing with a town read isn't scummy I do think your points on sakura were null and her overall behaviour reminded me of town at best you even ended up agreeing with me so wtf are you saying now you should have enough experience to know something so basic?
I think you were trying to manipulate me.

...

IMO, "Garmr was manipulating Exp to stop attacking random townie Sakura" makes a lot less sense than "Garmr was manipulating Exp to stop attacking his scum-buddy Sakura". I mean, buddying is a thing so it's not a smoking gun, but I think Garmr's posts make more sense if Sakura/Riabi/Titus slot was his buddy than if anyone else was. I'd ask you guys to re-read stuff tomorrow and figure out if you agree or not. GL.

PS I'm presuming it's still twilight and posting is OK since thread is unlocked and no mod announcement.

mhsmith0 · Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:34 am

In post 1146, Garmr wrote:If boon is scum I could see expedience being boons partner with the way he is pushing for sakura's lynch.

In post 1381, Garmr wrote:Ok then back

Deir is scum in my mind because of the way he handled boon. In post 1020 he suggest letting the claim sit and be examined latter then. Also I really don't like the fact he was one of the people willing to lynch sakura over boon in post 1020 If he was scum even through he would be losing a partner he would be removing a potential threat in the future and not be getting as much flack for trying to lynch another townie instead. He seems to be trying to subtly put the idea that boon may be town in sakura's head.

In post 1082, Dierfire wrote:
@Sakura

I think that you should fully claim your role and explain your reaction to the claim by Boonskiies. It's not as though it gives the Mafia more information than lynching you would, and I'm trying to assess the chance that you're both Town here.

anyway on to the next post that catch's my attention

In post 1112, Dierfire wrote:
@Almost50

In post 1105, Almost50 wrote:I'm not buying this town!boon though, so I'm going to cast my vote on him regardless at the end of my read up (which should be 5-10 minutes from now).
I'm fairly certain that this is an error. If Sakura is Mafia, then she needs to be lynched anyway. If she is Town, then presumably she is being truthful with her claim, and lynching her takes Boon with her. We've an even number of players, so the extra lynch is a good thing.
The only reason not to vote Sakura is believing that both Sakura and Boon are Town.

EDIT: Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?
he continues to push here that we should be lynching sakura over boon but earlier he expressed that it's could be a town vs town this rubs me up the wrong way as he has shown no indication at this point that he thinks sakura is scum

Fuck in 1088 he says there's no good reason that sakura would be mafia and since his town reading boon skies why would he ever want to lynch sakura or boon in the first place. It doesn't make sense from a townie perspective. If he was town and he thought both boon and sakura were town then he wouldn't want sakura to be lynched at all and wipe out two potential power roles(yes i know boon flipped scum but we didn't know at this point he was scum only scum would know.)

I think after the vengeful claim he noticed chilled behavior and started to push on him to try and get a wagon onto him. In response to almost 50s counter claim he tries to doubt on it subtly (the bolded bit) cast doubt on it while also at the same time lecturing chilled. It's kinda feels like scum trying to lecture town.

In post 1237, Dierfire wrote:Why did you counter the claim, then?

In post 1240, Dierfire wrote:In your initial response to Boon's claim that I quoted above, and in several of your responses recently,
you seem to be saying that your plan was not to counter the claim because you thought that your role was more valuable concealed. Initially, your response was even to allow Boon to survive the day (in favor of lynching Garmr).
What has changed since then that you absolutely needed to convince Expedience and mhsmith0 that Boon is Mafia now, today?

In post 1392, Garmr wrote:
In post 1391, Dierfire wrote:I disagree that the case on me is compelling!
I believe that my 1231 should address most of the issues. I wasn't voting for Sakura Hana and I wasn't saying that we should lynch her--I was saying that we should lynch her
if we were having trouble deciding between her and Boonskiies, because lynching her would allow us to get both
.

@Sakura Hana

In post 1390, Sakura Hana wrote:Dierfire One main question i have is why was numbers more important than keeping the ammount of townies and more importantly a potential PR (even tho it was a gambit) alive for scum to NK instead of getting rid of it together with boons.
When I referred to the point about numbers, I meant that we wouldn't lose a lynch if one Town player and one Mafia player died. If we'd had an odd number of players, then a vengeful shot would have exhausted one of our lynches. It is true that I wasn't thinking ahead to the night phase in that hypothetical scenario, but I wasn't committing to that scenario anyway.
But the whole point was you were town reading both why would you want both boon and sakura dead as town. Also if you thought that was a good idea to lynch two town reads why didn't you want to vote sakura. Is it because a vengeful town can only shoot what's on their wagon?

"Lynching or pressuring sakura is bad, we shouldn't do that". Honestly it seems like a somewhat common theme with Garmr this game. Does Garmr go this far to buddy town when he's mafia? I've very little experience with him; do others know the answer to that?

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:22 pm

Very well played Titus. Wolf team won a town sided setup, and you did what it took to finish the job.

I'm just happy I didn't lose BOTH games where I was a dead townie accurately pointing fingers at you

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:29 pm

On my end: shouldn't have gone along w the exp lynch, that one was terrible. Should have pushed harder for riabi on d5 instead of compromising on Lowell. Mistakes were made. On the whole I was pleased with my showing though, so *shrugs* *shakes fist at variance* *cries bitterly into pillow at winning streak getting cut off at just two, oh cruel world*

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:44 pm

Ha! I knew that there was a "save garmr" push on day 2. Whoo smith!

Also I figured it was Sakura who killed chilled. Maestro basically threw the game on n2. Sorry but it's true.

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 4:45 pm

Also @faq: imo the setup really was pretty town sided with a lot of ways town could PR their way to the win. Then again I'm probably biased since I think most setups here are town sided lol.

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:14 pm

One thing that I at least approve of is there was no cop (though there was a cop shot on the JOAT). I think it'd have worked better with nerfing the JOAT a bit to like tracker, watcher, bodyguard, and then give wolves a 1-shot ninja to possibly break the JOAT's ability. That way it becomes a lot likelier that the UB would pick up something pretty useless from the JOAT instead of fundamentally being a backup JK.

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:20 pm

Honestly the right lynch there was garmr given that both "jailer" claims were "for" it. Sakura's drama with Boon shifted momentum away from it. That was basically the single most pro-wolf sequence that simply happened to look like a pro-town sequence of the game

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:21 pm

In post 1926, Dierfire wrote:Perhaps I should just have followed mhsmith0

Or at least seriously engaged with my case. But yes, blind sheeping of dead townies who seem at least reasonably competent is a reasonable starting point if you're completely out of ideas. The reads and ideas of town-flipped players is IMO a pretty under-utilized resource generally speaking.

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:16 pm

Well, it's very likely that at least one of those two (boon/ct) were telling the truth, and that means that the confirmed town among them was for the lynch. Moreover, by lynching a key suspect outside the dipole, it basically meant that the wolves would have to either sacrifice boon (a CT flip means boon dies D3) or allow CT to live even longer and potentially buy town an extra lynch. And, of course, as it turns out, the Garmr lynch was the "right" lynch by virtue of actually being mafia (which is why I'd really only noticed this post Garmr flip). But mainly it was something where the momentum was heading in that direction, and Sakura's action cut it off. THAT was the key pro-mafia move, and why (now knowing that Garmr was mafia), Sakura's "town credit" for her part in boon's lynch was ill-earned, and as it turned out, other than the town credit from that move, there really wasn't very much townie about that slot.

And this was especially true D3 and later. Sakura's work on D3 didn't look at all like what you'd expect from a near-confirmed townie who was very likely to die N3. Some of that was because she was sick, of course, but even the posts she made had a different look and feel to the pre-boon lynch body of work (and given the high amount of day chat coordination, I suspect a key reason for this was that she could no longer talk to her buddies live). And then, of course, there was Riabi's work, which on D4 and D5 was consistently wolfy. I probably needed to do more to zero in on that, but I feel like I was pretty clear about Riabi all by himself being entirely lynchable as a resume.

Unfortunately, on D6 the rest of the town (you and toast) weren't much interested in game-solving or really working to figure things out (or even working to present your own "I'm clearly town because ___" cases), which were pretty anti-town behaviors that made me start to reconsider my game-solving. Still, Titus's D6 vote on Dier for "NK motive" was pretty clearly BS, which I called out very explicitly, and again no one seemed to much care, which again made me think it was probably Titus but realistically could have been either toast or dier.

And Dier's counter-vote on Titus on D6 (1862) was pretty awful as well. Just a "well gee, this game is hard, so I guess I better vote Titus". I mean, I now get that you were being honest about it, but that's simply not a legitimately townie thought process (and btw, Titus pushing back on this immediately was a very effective move IMO, and she absolutely out-debated you in that segment). The very least you could have done was engage with my explicit case on the slot (posted D5 and D6) and explicitly say why you agree or disagree.

And then D7... I'm sorry, but D7 was simply bad. Dier, because you know you're town, it's incumbent upon you to present toast with the information he needs to make an informed decision. Titus basically said nothing because she was mafia and wanted to deprive toast of info. You needed to make a case, ESPECIALLY since it was fairly obvious toast was leaning towards voting you.
"Into your hands I commend my spirit."
and
"I'm pleased to have guessed correctly."
... Toasty guessed wrong, and that's to some degree on him, but you gave him basically nothing to work with (not even bothering to go back and highlight what you thought were the most compelling parts of my case against Titus slot). It's simply not fair to ask him to do more work to figure things out than you were willing to do.

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:28 pm

That said, that's really intended to be more of a critique / suggestion for improvement than anything else. Probably came out a bit over-salty, and if so I apologize.

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:00 pm

In post 1935, Sakura Hana wrote:ftr i still have no clue what Garmr meant with this:
In post 1603, Garmr wrote:Like when I was jailkeeped night one I didn't have a choose in making the kill I was strongly opposed only a idiot would have the person who the only person who was town read by the majority to make the kill in case of watcher or jailkeeper or some other role that could nab me. But we have this weird voting system that's like lynching aka majority rules gah. Hell I wanted to kill exp night one because I knew he would cast suspicion on me but boon managed to convince the other scum buddy to vote his way which is absolute bs. If I was left to take charge the scum team wouldn't be in such a horrible position but no one listens to garmr.

Don't even get me started on the fake jail keeper claim and nearly outing our other buddy by accident.
But well you can find my opinion on the matter in the Dead PT

Garmr was lying out his ass in order to frame Lowell, and I bought it

mhsmith0 · Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:00 pm

Oh, happy birthday btw! Guess you got your present just a little bit early.

mhsmith0 · Wed Jun 15, 2016 7:12 pm

@toast: fwiw I was pretty newb when I started (one completed game to my name), but over the rather lengthy span of the game I've gained a lot more experience. I don't feel like a newb anymore, though of course it'd be nice if my record looked a bit healthier on the w side and leaner on the L's

But my six game losing streak is nicely in the past, and it feels GOOD to be starting to win again even if this one didn't work out.

Ps yeah being less spammy is something I def. need to work on. It's a weakness of mine, I definitely admit.