Mini Normal 1775 END!

[Dierfire]

Hello everyone!

I am going to try to read quickly. If there's anything that needs special attention, please let me know!

[Dierfire]

I'm through D1, and I'm leaving for the night. My preliminary thought is that the speed of the lynch on Madonna was highly suspect, but I see that many people were interpreting her as suspicious for defending Lowell (implying that they were both Mafia), which does give support to switching from one to the other. When I'm done catching up, I will revisit that point to see whether anyone seemed off in the timing.

So far I am reading Sakura and Almost50 as Town. I need to review some things with the ending of the day but mhsmith0 might be looking good as well.
The suspicious set that needs my attention is {Lowell, Garmr, chilledtea, Knightmare} (some of those are associative but I'll speak to that more when I know more).

[Dierfire]

@Sakura

@Dierfire: What's your opinion on Expedience and Boon

Nothing stood out to me about either of those players, but I will pay attention to them as I continue.
I guess that Boon is claiming a role now? I'm not really caught up on the events leading into this page, but unless there's something very wrong with the remainder of his ISO I wouldn't want to lynch him today.

[Dierfire]

I'm on page 32, and I think that I'll finish tomorrow. A few things:

I haven't seen anything that I disliked from Expedience but I told Sakura that I'd give an opinion so I'll do a read in ISO when I'm finished to get something more solid.
I'm having a difficult time reading the interactions between chilledtea and Garmr but they did not seem to be Town/Town interactions to me. If anything, I was suspecting Mafia/Mafia. If Boon's claim is being countered then probably this needs to sit for a bit and be examined later.
My read on Almost50 wavered a bit when I read 764 and 765 (the tone felt weird to me).

Anyway, I'll be more coherent tomorrow when I finish.

[Dierfire]

Grah, sorry, I'm still not caught up. I got distracted by recent events.
I gather that Sakura has claimed a Vengeful role and Boon has amended his claim to JOAT? Since we're at an even number, I can't really think of a downside to Sakura's plan to lynch her and have her use any Vengeful ability on Boon. There's only one thing that I'd want to know first.

@Sakura

I think that you should fully claim your role and explain your reaction to the claim by Boonskiies. It's not as though it gives the Mafia more information than lynching you would, and I'm trying to assess the chance that you're both Town here.

[Dierfire]

I'm still not convinced that we're not looking at Town/Town here.
I guess that I should finish reading.
Even if we are looking at Town/Town, the even number of living players makes a double flip fairly attractive.

[Dierfire]

All right, I've finished my first pass.

There's a lot of noise in here, and I'm having difficulty adapting the newer material into my earlier impressions. I'm moving now to read a few players in ISO (Expedience as promised, chilledtea because I want to make a case, Boonskiies for comparison to chilledtea when I finish).

If I were picking one I'd be lynching Boonskiies over Sakura, but obviously if we're going to lynch either we should lynch Sakura to get both.

[Dierfire]

Expedience first:

I didn't agree with the read on Sakura in 124. I thought that Sakura's push on Knightmare was good enough for the early game, and her apparent paranoia of being followed was consistent with a Town player who was looking for more information and not receiving it. Furthermore, I don't see a good reason to suspect that Sakura, as Mafia, would have needed to abandon the wagon so obviously as it was growing.

However, I still end up not thinking that this is evidence that Expedience is Mafia, because the explanation of why Sakura's actions don't make sense to Expedience (293) is consistent with the way that Expedience approaches the game in general (299) and reads my slot (417).

Expedience was the first vote on Madonna (464) for reasons which I find to be true (Madonna should not have been voting a player that she thought was Town), but which were easy to provide as Mafia (that single action, while inexplicable, does not clearly translate to a Mafia play). I can't really call this indicative of any alignment; it was a great opportunity for the Mafia precisely because Town players would be justified in not tolerating Madonna's play there. This includes 559.

The question to Garmr in 590 is a good one, to the point that I was expecting Expedience to open D2 with a vote on Garmr. The vote on Sakura Hana instead (638) follows a similar vein as the vote on Madonna (identifies inconsistencies but does not identify Mafia motivation for inconsistencies).

The vote on Garmr (727) is better, and is one with which I agree (Expedience does not explicitly provide this, but the Mafia motivation for Garmr to spend so much time talking to chilledtea would be to drown out the signal in noise--this is one thing that flagged my attention for a possible Mafia/Mafia interaction). Clearly the motivation to stay off of the Madonna wagon is to avoid suspicion after the flip.

Overall I like the read on Garmr and disagree with the read on Sakura (but don't find the reasoning suspicious for Mafia intent). There are enough negative points here that I'm not reading Expedience as Town with the same degree of confidence that I have in, say, mhsmith0, but this is certainly on the Town side of Null.

[Dierfire]

@mhsmith0

Dierfire, how likely is it in your mind that we're looking at town/town in Sakura/boon? I've re-read their interactions a few times now, and I'll admit I'm struggling to wrap my head around how to interpret it in terms of alignment for each.

You also seem to be suggesting that I'm a strong town read of yours. Why is that? And do you have any other strong town reads at this time?

I was going to write my case on chilledtea next, but this issue is dominating the thread, so I'm moving it up in priority.

It's a convoluted situation, I agree. I've been reading Sakura as Town since I first started reading on the basis of her play (without factoring in claims). When I look at the claims, I note a few things. First, the Vengeful role is not Normal, and seems slightly less likely to occur in a game that has a Universal Backup. At the same time, it seems like a convoluted way for a Mafia player to contest a claim made by a Town player (particularly claiming a role that makes Sakura an appealing target for the lynch). So, I'm mostly inclined to believe her claim, with the note that of course her claim makes me want to lynch her more, not less, than otherwise. For this reason it's fairly critical for me to have a good read on Boon here.

That (reading Boon) will be my next task. Afterward, I will articulate my suspicions on chilledtea, and then substantiate my read on you.

I am also reading Almost50 as Town at this time.

[Dierfire]

Ugh, reading the Wiki is a pain right now.

It is true that roles do not have to be explicitly Normal (white list) to be included in Normal games. A Mini Normal game may include one role that is not from the white list ("not from the white list" and "from the black list" are not the same thing).

[Dierfire]

It is possible for there to be (no more than) one role in this game that is not listed as "explicitly Normal" (Vengeful would be one of those).

[Dierfire]

@Almost50

I'm not buying this town!boon though, so I'm going to cast my vote on him regardless at the end of my read up (which should be 5-10 minutes from now).

I'm fairly certain that this is an error. If Sakura is Mafia, then she needs to be lynched anyway. If she is Town, then presumably she is being truthful with her claim, and lynching her takes Boon with her. We've an even number of players, so the extra lynch is a good thing.
The only reason not to vote Sakura is believing that both Sakura and Boon are Town.

EDIT: Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?

[Dierfire]

I might not be explaining this well, but I do actually understand how the Normal games work with regard to roles. I'll try to break it down.

White List:

These roles are listed as "Explicitly Normal" in the Wiki (Normal Game, Normal Roles and Modifiers). A Normal Game may include any number of roles from this list (provided that it meets the other criteria).

Black List:

These roles are listed as "Explicitly Non-Normal" in the Wiki. A Normal Game may not include any of these roles or modifiers.

Everything else is "grey list" and may be included within limits. This game is a Mini Normal and so may have no more than one role from the "grey list" (Vengeful Townie would be on the "grey list").

Is that clear?

[Dierfire]

Anyway Boonskiies is partially a reverse of Sakura for me; I've no good read on his play, and it's the claim that would make me read him as Town.

Some of his anger in response to others voting for him felt theatrical, but I can't ascribe any of that to Mafia specifically. He seemed to be playing up his inability to follow the game closely, and specifically doing so in a way that seemed overly defensive, but that could be stress as well.

I'm going ahead with my case on chilledtea.

[Dierfire]

All right, here is my case on chilledtea.

Spoiler: Walls

Defensiveness over minor things is a scum tell imo.

So, chilledtea comes in and states an opinion that defensiveness over minor things indicates Mafia alignment, but then fails to apply this in a meaningful way to the ongoing discussion (whether Knightmare was being overly defensive and whether this indicated that he was Mafia). On eight assume that he was saying that Knightmare was Mafia (because he had a vote down there), but he immediately moved his vote to Sayaka Maizono (without any intervening posts from Knightmare or Sayaka, and with intervening posts from Boonskiies agreeing with the idea that defensiveness is a Mafia trait).

VOTE: Sayaka Maizono

Y

Bcoz ynot.

Anyway, I think knight is town, you are town, and that Sakura is town. This was indeed useful.

When asked to explain the vote, he immediately backs off (but does not remove his vote or seem overly concerned with finding a better target). Furthermore, he is now reading Knightmare as Town!

I am finding you town because of your interaction with knightmare. It town vs town imo.

He then interprets the entire interaction as Town/Town, without giving reasons for it. To me, this looks to be an attempt to opt out of analysis and look busy.

I think Lowell is scum. His overconfidence is without reason.

Similarly, this thought doesn't quite make it to the realm of "indicative of alignment" in a way that I can understand. Seemingly it wasn't a strong read, because it changes shortly afterward.

VOTE: mhsmith

Smith is scum. Lowell might be town.

Smith is scum because ____?

Lowell might be town because ____?

I'm especially curious about the second. You were scum reading Lowell consistently in your posts, but now that the wagon looked like it was nearing L-1 and turning really serious you wanted out and are now town reading Lowell. You give no reason for this, just a flat stated town read (cushioned by a "might" modifier). This just SCREAMS tactical voting. Justify your vote and your reads. Yes, I know. Actual effort and transparency. It's a drag but unfortunately it's what the town needs to see in order to actually evaluate you.

Your post. That is the reason.

The nonsensical reasons you have given make me feel that you don't understand the context under which certain actions took place in this game. It almost felt like you are trying to get reasons for your scum read by going through the thread rather than stating your actual feelings.
Lowell could be town because he said the same thing about you.

This is a good point by mhsmith0 and chilledtea makes nothing like a coherent response to it. He backs off again when challenged.

The nonsensical reasons you have given make me feel that you don't understand the context under which certain actions took place in this game. It almost felt like you are trying to get reasons for your scum read by going through the thread rather than stating your actual feelings.
Lowell could be town because he said the same thing about you.

:lol:

1) "The nonsensical reasons". WHICH "nonsensical reasons"? And why are they nonsense?

2) "You are trying to get reasons for your scum read by going through the thread rather than stating your actual feelings." You mean like looking for evidence and holding people accountable for what they say, and being clear on WHY I am reading people as scum, instead of just hand-waving "oh my gut says town", "my gut says scum". How in that world is THAT scum-indicative?

Seriously, why not just go all out and say "MHS is trying to scum hunt, therefore he must be scum"? Or do you think I'm fake scum hunting? And if the latter, where is the EVIDENCE for me fake scum hunting? Note that "my gut says you're fake scum hunting" is NOT something I consider an acceptable answer.

3) Lowell could be town because he agrees with your position? Seriously, that's it? What about all the stuff you scum read him for before? :roll:

They are nonsense because they fail to take context into consideration. Seems like you saw a nice opportunity to jump on the almost50 wagon and decided to find "scummy" things.

For eg, You think vote whipping someone is a scum tell. It is 100% something a townie would consider doing if he thinks the game requires more content from said person.

When almost voted sayaka, in fact before that I voted Sayaka as well. And that was a naked vote registered to make a point.

As far as Lowell is concerned, he had like little reason to consider Knight super scum like he did. So I was suspicious. It is still possible he is scum. My read on you has changed. Does it surprise you that people can have change of read on the basis of what you say or don't say?

I see nothing in here that should persuade someone who thought that mhsmith0 was Mafia before this.

It has been 17 hours since she posted in here. The 12 hour period is over. Here goes nothing.

VOTE: Madonna

The D1 hammer was bad (not enough time for a claim in a day that was not short on time, no substantiated reason to read Madonna as Mafia). I also note attempts to diffuse responsibility to others here.

I am OK with both madonna or lowell lynch today. At the moment the vote is on Lowell, but

if you decide

I am ok with Madonna. She is objectively scummy.

I intend to hammer in the next hour,

unless people can convince me

otherwise.

Obviously with such a short timer, there was no sincerity in the offer to be convinced by others--this was purely an attempt to avoid responsibility.

On D2, he has a weird interaction with Garmr that I'll pick apart after one of them flips. I do also want to highlight his vote on Lowell, which he disavowed as "basically RVS" (here is his response to Lowell pointing that out).

Sure, your basically RVS vote. Which is the "I'm not back down you guys see?" version of backing down. So, worse.

This is just bad. What is your theory regarding texcat anyways?

I mean this is just rich coming from you. You have been naked voting texcat yourself. On day 1 you voted knight on a wagon and then turned your attention to texcat with no explanation. Even now, there seems to be no explanation regarding it other than - "I've a theory guys".

None of this is in any way a substantial read or a reasoned vote. Given his activity level, I say that chilledtea is trying to look busy and avoid analysis.

VOTE: chilledtea

I'm still paying attention to Boon and Sakura but my vote is here until I come to a decision.

[Dierfire]

Boonskiies claims in 992.

Seriously, fuck this game. You guys are lynching a PR. I fucking jailed Toasty last night. I thought I blocked the kill until he started lying.

Here is chilledtea afterward.

Boon, join me on garmr lynch then.

VOTE: Garmr

Boon i'll give you until your next post to fix your claim into something that isnt a lie and explain why you lied or otherwise im adding super glue to my vote.

Please come here and explain yourself.

I don't at all believe that chilledtea, as Town Jailkeeper, sees someone claim a Jailkeeper action and decides to try to be friends with Boonskiies ("to block another kill" as though lynching Boonskiies immediately doesn't help that plan), then questions another player who seems to be countering the claim.
I also see no evidence from chilledtea when D2 begins that he has an important result (he should have believed either that Garmr delivered a kill or that he blocked an attempt to kill Garmr).

I don't believe the claim by chilledtea.

[Dierfire]

@Sakura Hana

I haven't read Dier's case on Chilled because I just got back, but i would really prefer him to take a strong stance on both me and Boon, because with the way things are going there's no way the lynch can be shifted elsewhere.

My stance on Boon and you has been, and continues to be, this:

I was reading you as Town for your play prior to the claim. The claim itself is unusual (due to not being a Normal role) but does not seem likely to come from a Mafia player for the specific purpose of getting Boonskiies (presumably Town in that scenario) lynched. That's why I said that I would prefer to lynch Boon if I were to kill one of you.
However, the nonzero chance that I'm wrong about you, combined with the fact that we have an even number of players, makes lynching you a reasonable strategy if Boon is Mafia and you are Town (as you yourself seemed to acknowledge).
So, I've been trying to assess the chance that you and Boon are both Town (the scenario in which lynching you is a bad strategy). With the claim by chilledtea, I'm sticking to that interpretation.

[Dierfire]

@chilledtea

Why would you claiming immediately after Boon have been a bad thing?

[Dierfire]

In the scenario that you describe, the real Doctor should counter the claim! Trading evenly with the Mafia is a good deal for the Town, and having a dead Mafia player makes it easier to find associations. Also, in this situation specifically, the Jailkeeper has a greater chance to block the kill when fewer Mafia players are left alive.

[Dierfire]

Why did you counter the claim, then?

[Dierfire]

In your initial response to Boon's claim that I quoted above, and in several of your responses recently, you seem to be saying that your plan was not to counter the claim because you thought that your role was more valuable concealed. Initially, your response was even to allow Boon to survive the day (in favor of lynching Garmr). What has changed since then that you absolutely needed to convince Expedience and mhsmith0 that Boon is Mafia now, today?

[Dierfire]

Sorry to be absent, I'm coming back with content within six hours.

[Dierfire]

I've been reading through Boonskiies in ISO for associations.

152 by Alm looks like coaching. I checked the front page and couldn't find anywhere where it said scum had day talk. I am leaning town on chilled, though, but meh. Day 1. Just somethings to keep an eye out for later in the game.

This looks suspicious to me. If he wasn't going to push it at the time, then why mention it? He knew that chilledtea was not going to flip Mafia, so this strikes me as a possible attempt to chain chilledtea to Almost50 at some later point.

I am sympathetic with Lowell and his case on you. Sakura bothers me for two reasons. First her unvote when you attracted the wagon. This does not seem particularly bad though. It was basically an RVS wagon that took off. I can understand her unvote. Second is that she never attracted the Almost50 vote. This is what I was referring to when I said connections that don't mean anything without a flip. If Almost50 flips scum, Sakura would definitely get a scum nod.

What would your thoughts on Sakura be if Almost flipped town?

Almost50 flipping town wouldn't really affect my read on Sakura. It would just mean that a flailing townie didn't vote her.

Okay, then why do you say that if A50 flips scum, Sakura will get the nod? He doesn't affect your read on Sakura? Why not vote Sakura instead of A50 then? Don't get me wrong, I like the A50 vote, but makes me a bit nervous.

FoS: Tex

This series makes me feel that texcat is Town here (particularly if Almost50 is Mafia, but even if not). I don't think that these questions, leading to Boonskiies claiming to be suspicious of texcat, needed to happen at that point in the game if they were both Mafia. The partial encouragement to move the vote from Almost50 is the thing that might also indicate that Almost50 is Mafia.

Did someone say L-1?

Boonskiies has a reputation for dropping a hammer on any player to reach L-1. The fact that he does not do so here, with Lowell at L-1, is suspicious.

Boonskiies places his vote on texcat in 425, which makes it further unlikely that texcat is Mafia.

Boonskiies continues to not drop a hammer on Lowell in 439, after mhsmith0 has declared intent to hammer, and 508.

Boonskiies has that interaction with Garmr in 818. It never actually makes it to a vote for him, although Garmr does make it to a vote for Boonskiies in 984.

So, I am reading texcat as Town, and I'm suspicious of Almost50, Garmr, and Lowell. My next task is to read those three again in ISO.

[Dierfire]

I've read Almost50 in ISO and I'm less suspicious of him than I was.
306 doesn't seem like the sort of argument that two Mafia partners would have.
Many posts are weird in tone or in content (the vote for Madonna in 576 while apparently reading her as Town, disavowing that vote in 765, bizarrely providing incorrect information about Normal roles in 1111), but I think that this may be stylistic rather than substantive.

I've read Lowell in ISO and I'm more suspicious of him than I am of Almost50.
The fact that Boonskiies didn't drop a hammer on him is significant. The recent case on mhsmith0 (1297) shows evidence of being fabricated (reading in ISO without considering context is a sign of trying to find evidence for a conclusion that was already formed). It is possible that his behavior toward Boonskiies was a result of believing his claim, but there's enough evidence here for a vote.

I tried to read Garmr in ISO but his style is difficult to read.
I did see that he seems to start being suspicious of Boonskiies in 783, at which time the wagon on Boonskiies did not yet have much support (texcat seems equivocal in 778 and Almost50 had not been pursuing that lead immediately prior to the read).

I continue to believe that at least one of those rapid votes on the Boonskiies wagon (983, 984, 985) should be a Mafia partner.

So, I think that I want to vote for Lowell now.

VOTE: Lowell

[Dierfire]

@ToastyToast

@Dierfire: A couple of things...this may come off as me defending Lowell but it is more that I think you are assuming that everyone approaches mafia with a certain type of reasoning.

1) Who cares if Boonskiies didn't hammer? I fail to see why this is significant, especially given that Boons entire game was "sorry I'm busy I'll be back later to yell at someone before I leave and do nothing again." Although Boon is known for hammering, there is nothing suggesting that he'd do it every game, regardless of alignment.
2) I read ISO's to prove my points all the time. It may seem like a bad approach to some but for those of us who operate more on gut it is very useful. It "usually" means starting with some abstract thought then finding empirical evidence for it a la deductive reasoning. Since we know Lowell is a gut player,

1. My point is that, as Boonskiies is known for dropping capricious hammers on wagons that reach L-1, even when he is Town, he would have little reason not to do so here if Lowell is Town. Why did he show restraint there?
2. Ha ha, the last part of this point seems to have been lost! What do we do with the knowledge of Lowell's play?
Anyway, I'll assume that the natural continuation was something like this: since we know that Lowell is a "gut player" we should assume that his failure to account for the context of the posts has no bearing on his alignment.
My response would be that I still disagree with the case on mhsmith0 and am reading him as Town (so the case is unpersuasive to me), and also that I find Lowell to be a reasonable partner for Boonskiies given his placement on the wagon (so my vote stays on Lowell).

[Dierfire]

I'm preemptively dodging the prod. I haven't yet caught up but I'm here for a bit and I will do so promptly.

[Dierfire]

Maestro replaced Sayaka? That slot hasn't made much of an impression on me, although I vaguely recall thinking positive things about Sayaka while reading the early game.

[Dierfire]

I think that what this game needs right now is more people voting.

[Dierfire]

I disagree that the case on me is compelling!
I believe that my 1231 should address most of the issues. I wasn't voting for Sakura Hana and I wasn't saying that we should lynch her--I was saying that we should lynch her

if we were having trouble deciding between her and Boonskiies, because lynching her would allow us to get both

.

@Sakura Hana

Dierfire One main question i have is why was numbers more important than keeping the ammount of townies and more importantly a potential PR (even tho it was a gambit) alive for scum to NK instead of getting rid of it together with boons.

When I referred to the point about numbers, I meant that we wouldn't lose a lynch if one Town player and one Mafia player died. If we'd had an odd number of players, then a vengeful shot would have exhausted one of our lynches. It is true that I wasn't thinking ahead to the night phase in that hypothetical scenario, but I wasn't committing to that scenario anyway.

[Dierfire]

@Garmr

I disagree that the case on me is compelling!
I believe that my 1231 should address most of the issues. I wasn't voting for Sakura Hana and I wasn't saying that we should lynch her--I was saying that we should lynch her

if we were having trouble deciding between her and Boonskiies, because lynching her would allow us to get both

.

@Sakura Hana

Dierfire One main question i have is why was numbers more important than keeping the ammount of townies and more importantly a potential PR (even tho it was a gambit) alive for scum to NK instead of getting rid of it together with boons.

When I referred to the point about numbers, I meant that we wouldn't lose a lynch if one Town player and one Mafia player died. If we'd had an odd number of players, then a vengeful shot would have exhausted one of our lynches. It is true that I wasn't thinking ahead to the night phase in that hypothetical scenario, but I wasn't committing to that scenario anyway.

But the whole point was you were town reading both why would you want both boon and sakura dead as town. Also if you thought that was a good idea to lynch two town reads why didn't you want to vote sakura. Is it because a vengeful town can only shoot what's on their wagon?

This seems to be a major disconnect from what I've been writing and I'm not exactly sure how to fix it. I guess that I'll ask you to read again, keeping in mind that I didn't vote for Sakura Hana?

[Dierfire]

To me, that seems to be at least partially a function of players not voting. For example, I think that mhsmith0 might contribute a vote to your preferred wagon on Expedience when he gets back, and ToastyToast seemed to be thinking along those lines as well.

[Dierfire]

@Expedience

It seems likely that you will be lynched today. Could we get an updated list of reads?

[Dierfire]

Sorry for the absence, I'm here and catching up.

[Dierfire]

I can see that I'm not going to get Lowell lynched today.

UNVOTE: Lowell
VOTE: Expedience

THIS IS L-1 FOR EXPEDIENCE

[Dierfire]

I'm not doing so well in this game.
I'm trying to get back on track tomorrow.

[Dierfire]

All right, I'm trying to get it together.

I still think that associations with Boonskiies favor Lowell being lynched over Garmr.
PEDIT: I may have to check my calculations; I thought that the action by chilledtea only makes Garmr marginally more likely than random chance to be Mafia.

I find heuristically_alone a bit scattered here and probably need to read that slot again because I don't recall noticing anything significant from that slot.

[Dierfire]

The calculation by mhsmith0 is correct: if chilledtea made an action at random, Garmr would be 11/23 to be Mafia given the lack of a kill, which does exceed random chance by quite a bit.

[Dierfire]

I get 11/23 but I acknowledge the point.

[Dierfire]

I get 11/23 but I acknowledge the point.

Gah, I'm wrong again and mhsmith0 is right again. As chilledtea could not have been Mafia, Garmr had a baseline 1/11 (not 1/12) chance to be Mafia, giving a conditional probability of 12/23 rather than 11/23 (which also makes sense for the reasons that mhsmith0 gave).

[Dierfire]

One more correction, then I'm done: obviously I meant 3/11 and 3/12 there.

[Dierfire]

@heuristically_alone

Are you reading Garmr as Town or as Mafia?

[Dierfire]

My inclination before seeing the calculation was definitely to lynch Lowell over Garmr, so now I'm having a bit of difficulty.
I have the same concern about heuristically_alone that texcat does, I think. I'm reviewing that slot now.

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, for my first significant finding, I see that I can save myself some typing!

Feel free to call me Alone.

[Dierfire]

That was a short review.

I have some ideas.

@Alone

You said that you are going back and forth on Garmr, and also that you think that the statistical discussion between mhsmith0 and me was helpful to Town. I assume, then, that you rate Lowell as more likely to be Mafia than the ~50% figure that mhsmith0 gave (or that you agree with Garmr that other factors decrease that probability).
Could you explain how confident you are in the Lowell read, and why?

[Dierfire]

Here's a cut-and-paste of my calculation from last night:

A = Garmr is Mafia
B = Kill is stopped

P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)

P(A) = 3/11
P(B) = P(C) + P(D) = 12/132 + 11/132 = 23/132

C = target is killer (1/11)
D = target is killed (1/12)

P (A|B) = P(B|A) * (3/11)(132/23) = (1/3) * (36/23) = 12/23


Adjust P(A) to 2/8, no change (2/8 = 3/12)

[Dierfire]

I'm still here, I'm just waiting for Alone to answer.

After that, my last task before voting will be to review texcat.

[Dierfire]

All right, I've been pretty deficient in content here lately. This is changing soon! Within 24 hours I plan to review texcat, after which time I will be ready to go ahead with a vote. I am close to committing by POE to the idea that Garmr and Lowell cannot both be Town (although not necessarily to the idea that they cannot both be Mafia).

[Dierfire]

I reviewed texcat and again found a number of favorable associative points with Boonskiies (hammer intent in 988 is legitimate because if she were waiting for Boonskiies to claim to withdraw then she would not doubt the claim in 1018 or place the vote on the wagon as it was losing momentum in 1081). I'm content to leave her in the Town pile.

So, what's going on here? If Lowell is Mafia, is his partner also voting for Garmr (mhsmith0)? That seems an unlikely tactic, because if Garmr flips Town then Lowell would continue to be in danger. Is his partner avoiding the major wagons (Riabi, ToastyToast)? Those also seem like unlikely partners for Boonskiies and Lowell (Sakura was very aggressive with Boonskiies, ToastyToast was chosen by Boonskiies as the target of his false N1 action and doubted his claim). Is his partner on his wagon (texcat is an unlikely partner, Garmr is an irrelevant partner, Alone alone gives me pause)?
If Garmr is Mafia then things are much simpler. His partner would be Lowell (not worrisome) or Alone (seems more likely to be partners with Garmr than with Lowell due to the comment about the statistical discussion being helpful to Town but voting for Lowell).
There's also the question of the probability calculation; unless someone can make a powerfully compelling case for Garmr as Town (or for Lowell as Mafia), I think that Garmr is a superior choice for the lynch.

I think that this is good enough to proceed.
In summary: texcat, Riabi, mhsmith0, and ToastyToast have favorable associations with Boonskiies, and to various degrees seem unlikely partners for Lowell as well. Alone seems more likely to be partners with Garmr than with Lowell. If Lowell and Garmr are both Mafia then we're probably set anyway.

VOTE: Garmr

[Dierfire]

Which night was that investigation?

[Dierfire]

@Alone

Are you certain that you've accurately reported all actions and results? You should check.

---
In any case I agree that mhsmith0 should be Town here.

[Dierfire]

@mhsmith0

You asked me for previous games.

TOWN

Newbie 1698 is the most recent Town game and is a nice short one. I died N1.
Mini 1774 is a bit odd with roles and mechanics. It was not a fantastic game for me.
Mini 1779 had a known SK but otherwise was a pretty good game for me.

MAFIA

Mini 1773 is a nice short one--I was shot N1 by a JOAT.
Newbie 1674 is one that I entered late, for which I apologize, but I haven't drawn Mafia in a game that I played from the start for quite some time!
Mini 1709 is an old one, and I also entered late.

[Dierfire]

I have no information that contradicts Alone's claim. The only thing that worries me is that he's reporting what appears to be a Tracker result (on Lowell N3) but calling it a Watcher result, which is the sort of thing that should be difficult to do if he actually has the PM in front of him.
If his claim does check out, I'll be looking at Lowell (I think that yesterday's wagons could easily have been cross-voting Mafia) or perhaps ToastyToast (who, having claimed VT, was apparently not communicating a clear result on me).

[Dierfire]

I would believe that JOAT + Jailkeeper + Universal Backup is more balanced than Jailkeeper + Universal Backup here, unless the last Mafia player has a role with negative utility (and probably even then--also Traitor is not an option here because the Normal variant would have lost by now).
So, if everyone else is claiming VT here, then I'd consider Alone very likely to be Town.

The exact constellation of roles isn't one that I've seen before, but I could point to Mini 1708, which had a Town Jailkeeper and a Town BOAT. The Town also had an Even-Night Cop and a 1-Shot Gunsmith, and the Mafia had two Goons and a 1-Shot Tracker.

I also recall Mini 1735, which had Town Roleblocker, Town Tracker, and Town 1-Shot Gunsmith against Mafia Rolecop and Mafia Goon (in a game of 11 players). Adding another Goon and another VT, upgrading the Roleblocker to a Jailkeeper, and downgrading the Tracker to a Backup certainly seems to come out in favor of Mafia, even if the Rolecop is downgraded to an Encryptor.

[Dierfire]

@mhsmith0

@Dier: who among the survivors is likeliest mafia if you flip green? Based on 1591 you think it's Lowell. Still there or anyone else? I'm leaning towards you as last mafia, but I'm not sold on it yet (I'd consider Lowell and Riabi both as plausible last mafia instead). In case the wagon is wrong, I'd like to hear your voice on things.

Currently I believe that Lowell is most likely to be Mafia, although I need to check ToastyToast as well. I find it unlikely that Riabi is Mafia here but I can review that slot as well.

[Dierfire]

VoteCount 4.3

With 8 players alive, it takes

5

votes to lynch.

heuristically_alone (0):

Riabi (0):

Lowell (3):

texcat, heuristically_alone, Garmr

(L-2)

mhsmith0 (1):

Riabi

texcat (0):

Garmr (3):

Lowell, mhsmith0, Dierfire

(L-2)

Dierfire (0):

ToastyToast (0):

Not Voting (1):

ToastyToast

The deadline is in

(expired on 2016-05-03 17:00:00)

NOTES:
Prodding mhsmith0

This is an important point in the game, I think.
Is Lowell Town? If so, where is Garmr's partner?
If Lowell is Town, and we believe that Alone's reported action makes mhsmith0 clear, and we believe that balance favors Alone's claim being true, then at this point Garmr's partner is certainly not voting for Lowell. After Alone adds his vote to Garmr, Garmr drops the hammer on himself. I think that this speaks against either of the other players (Riabi, ToastyToast) being Mafia--Garmr should not have cut short the day if his partner were not voting for him already (and the last Town player was not obviously walking towards the wagon).

[Dierfire]

I think that associations between Boonskiies and Lowell, and more recently between Garmr and Lowell, point to Lowell as the last Mafia player here.

VOTE: Lowell

[Dierfire]

For which player would you be voting in my position?

[Dierfire]

Maybe...
If I'm lynched today I certainly prefer Lowell to be lynched next.
Let me check Riabi and ToastyToast again (give me 48 hours and I'll have a complete set of thoughts).

[Dierfire]

No, that's not what I mean, and I don't think that you think that it is.

For which player should I be voting if I am Town?

[Dierfire]

@ToastyToast

@Dietfire: is there something I can address with regards to your suspicion?

This will be less than helpful, but not really! Lowell is my chief suspect, but Alone asked me whether I would be willing to bet the entire game on it, so I think that I just need to take the time to sit down and read the game over to reassure myself.

If you're bored in the meantime I guess that you could tell me who you think is the last Mafia player.

[Dierfire]

I'm here.

I continue to like my vote on Lowell.
The point from mhsmith0 about Boon's reaction to being called a lurker by ToastyToast is a good one and raises my confidence there.
I do want to hear from Riabi before the day ends.

@Alone

Did you ever address the discrepancy between the Watcher action and the Tracker result?

[Dierfire]

I want to contribute but feel that I have nothing further to say at this time.

[Dierfire]

I think that it's generally bad form to ask players to contribute to their own lynches.

[Dierfire]

That's a lot to read.

I can think of a few reasons that I was reading Sakura/Riabi as Town.
The seemingly paranoid reaction to the early wagon on Knightmare seemed to me like an unusual move for a Mafia player; at this point, one of those slots has to be Town (it's not clear to me why Sakura derails that wagon there if she is Mafia).
Sakura voting for Boon was not the only reason that I thought that she was unlikely to be partners with him; I also noted her specific false claim (which could potentially have gotten her lynched without clearing Boon--because, as you say, he could have been caught by his own false claim) and her reaction to me (she seemed to insist that I vote for her or Boon). I especially don't see it as necessary for her to derail a potential wagon on Garmr by setting up a showdown between her and Boon (at that point, with Garmr potentially compromised by a Roleblocker/Jailkeeper and Boon potentially countered by the same role, that would have been a lot of eggs in the same basket).

[Dierfire]

I had thought that mhsmith0 would be killed, so I was planning to vote to skip the lynch today.
Given that he lives, and that the flip from Alone makes him nearly certain to be Town, I don't think that there's much utility to that move now.

@mhsmith0

@dier: be prepared to actually spell out all of your "associatives" you've previously discussed.

I'm in the process of evaluating things again, but there will certainly be differences between "what I think now" and "what I thought then" so if something that I said previously was unclear, you'll need to be more specific.

[Dierfire]

Lowell really was my best guess.
Among other things, this means that the interaction around the Knightmare and Sakura's vote (starting in 23) is Town/Mafia, and one of the interactions with Boonskiies (his vote on Knightmare in 35 and subsequent argument about whether it was RVS or his explanation to Sakura in 197) is fabricated. I thought that both of those interactions worked better from Town players, so now I have to dig around and try to find something that distinguishes them.
I've a lot of work to do, and as we've been given a generous deadline (and further as the lynch is not imperative), I'm probably going to take some time with this one.

[Dierfire]

I tried to interpret the early RVS and I failed to make anything meaningful out of it.

Spoiler: Early RVS

VOTE: Lowell

Don't lurk this time.

Last time I played with Expedience, I remember voting for that feather in his cap, and I'm tempted to do it again. But instead I'll vote for another piece of ridiculous head apparel.

VOTE: Boonskiies

VOTE: garmr

I'll do what I wanna lurk.

VOTE: chilledtea

Hot tea is better.

I suppose that it's possible that knightmare is avoiding wagons with or on Mafia players at this point...

Hmmm.. who do I know here? Lowell, texcat & chilled (and even they don't know me that well, so...)

VOTE: Almost

Yeah. That should grab some people's attention. :P

CONFORM

Clear scum tell

VOTE: Goodlordwill

CONFORM

Clear scum tell

VOTE: Goodlordwill

Shameless sheeping.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Goodlordwill

VOTE: knightmare
Why RVS twice?

...the problem is that Sakura is the person to ask him the relevant question, which is easy for her to do as Mafia.

VOTE: Knight

Didn't feel like reading his last post. LOL

Alright, but actually. Way too defensive already. It's page 2. Hot damn.

Defensiveness isn't a scum tell.

Townies and scum don't want to get lynched either way. I'm gonna call out bad reasons regardless. This counts as one.

I didn't say it's why I voted you. I completely RVS'd. It's page 2, why would you get lynched...?

Boonskiies joins the wagon and subsequently claims that his vote is RVS. If he's voting for his partner, then why is he claiming RVS when he could be claiming a reason? If he wanted to be able to walk away from his vote then he could have simply not made it in the first place.

All these people sheeping me are giving me the chills however...

Why does Sakura pull back here as Mafia (further in 72)? Why does she later dispute those reading her as Town (64)?

After this things start picking up, including Sakura expressing suspicion of Boon (189), Boon walking away from the vote on knightmare (200), and knightmare following up on that (207, 242). Neither of them make it to a vote on Boon, and either way the whole thing is uncoordinated. Sakura keeps having those interactions with Boon (in 370 apparently referring to 353 about Almost50).
Anyway, I'm at the end of Page 15.

[Dierfire]

We're essentially already in 3p LYLO, except that we need mhsmith0 to certify the result or send it back to us for reconsideration.

[Dierfire]

You are correct that I don't believe that no lynch is the correct play. I'm not understanding the rest of this.

[Dierfire]

I'm here and reading now.

[Dierfire]

I've finished reading through the entire thread again. I didn't find anything that makes my decision for me.

I did find (again) that Boonskiies claimed his Jailkeeper action on ToastyToast. I need to think more about what that means and how it compares to the interaction with Sakura Hana. I'd like to try to decide what he wanted from the PR claim (whether he was trying to draw out a real PR or trying to save himself from the lynch), because that will inform my interpretation of potential associations (although it doesn't help that ToastyToast was largely absent during that time).

[Dierfire]

I'm trying to make sense of the situation around the claim from Boonskiies.

Spoiler: Long Form Data

Expedience had a vote on Sakura Hana from 638.
ToastyToast votes for Boonskiies in 683 ("for now").
Garmr casts his vote for chilledtea in 701 after chilledtea votes for texcat.
Expedience moves to Garmr in 727.
Boonskiies votes for texcat in 737 (there are three Town players on this wagon).
Sakura votes for Expedience in 811. Garmr moves to Expedience in 837.
Boonskiies votes for ToastyToast in 904, then Sakura Hana in 927, before returning to ToastyToast in 929. At this point, Boonskiies still only has one vote (from ToastyToast).
Sakura Hana votes for Boonskiies in 930, making two votes on his wagon, at which point Boonskiies reciprocates in 932 (the only vote on her wagon).
Now mhsmith0 adds a vote for Boonskiies in 959. As chilledtea had removed his vote for texcat in 954, Boonskiies is now the leading wagon with three votes.
Expedience returns to Sakura Hana in 980, the second vote on her wagon.
Boonskiies picks up three quick votes from Almost50, Garmr, and Lowell (983, 984, 985) and texcat states hammer intent (988). At this point both Mafia players are on his wagon. Sakura Hana has two votes and Garmr has none.
Boonskiies claims a role and an action in 992, causing mhsmith0 to remove his vote (993).
In 1008 chilledtea votes for Garmr.
Almost50 removes his vote in 1010 ("for now") and is followed by Lowell, who moves his vote to Garmr in 1011. At this point, we have the same vote distribution as in the VC at 1019. This is the moment at which Sakura says that Boonskiies is lying (1012).
Expedience returns to Garmr in 1021, but chilledtea moves from Garmr to Boonskiies in 1029. This leaves Garmr with two, Sakura Hana with one, and Boonskiies with four.
Lowell leaves Garmr for Sakura Hana in 1036, and Sakura Hana votes for herself (after claiming a role) in 1072. This leaves her with three, Garmr with one, and Boonskiies with three.
At this point, texcat returns and votes for Boonskiies (1081). This is the fourth vote on his wagon.
Expedience now votes for Sakura Hana in 1095, and mhsmith0 follows in 1099. This is the fifth vote on that wagon. He removes the vote in 1109. Garmr has no votes, and Boonskiies has four.
Almost50 votes for Boonskiies in 1114, and Sakura Hana follows in 1140. Now she has three votes and he has six.
In 1215, chilledtea removes his vote, but returns it in 1244, allowing Expedience to drop the hammer in 1245.

Spoiler: Short Form Data

Boonskiies Claims Here

Boonskiies (6): ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, mhsmith0, Almost50, Garmr, Lowell
Sakura Hana (2): Boonskiies, Expedience
Garmr (0):
texcat (1): Maestro
Lowell (1): texcat

No Vote (2): Dierfire, chilledtea

Sakura Hana Challenges Here

Boonskiies (3): ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, Garmr
Sakura Hana (2): Boonskiies, Expedience
Garmr (2): chilledtea, Lowell
texcat (1): Maestro
Lowell (1): texcat

No Vote (2): Dierfire, mhsmith0, Almost50

Sakura Hana Claims Here

Boonskiies (4): ToastyToast, Sakura Hana, Garmr, chilledtea
Sakura Hana (2): Boonskiies, Lowell
Garmr (1): Expedience
texcat (1): Maestro
Lowell (1): texcat

No Vote (3): Dierfire, mhsmith0, Almost50

(With the claim she moves her vote to herself)

Given the persistence with which Mafia players remained on his wagon, and especially the way that Garmr ignored the claim by Boonskiies, I assume that the goal of the claim was not to save Boonskiies, but rather to draw out a counter.

If Sakura Hana is Mafia, then her claim does not help draw a counter (if she appears to counter his claim then no other Town PR need do so), especially before she made her claim more specific. The plan also couldn't have been for her to die and hope that her flip cleared Boonskiies, because she backed out when it looked like she might actually be lynched (see quotes below).

Spoiler: Quotes

If someone wants to counter claim they are the non normal role come at me then.
While i would love to see boon eat his pants in hot sauce, the one thing bothering me is dier's stance in all of it.
He says i should be lynched because im vengeful so that i can shoot Boon, but wouldn't the townie mindset be to let the scum waste a NK on me instead.

Vengeful would be the 1 possible role added.

This is a really weird position to take for someone who wasn't believing me in their previous post.

Oh and not to mention that dier's reason is "because numbers" lol.

I haven't read Dier's case on Chilled because I just got back, but i would really prefer him to take a strong stance on both me and Boon, because with the way things are going there's no way the lynch can be shifted elsewhere.
Also.
VOTE: Boon

So the only reason that I could see for things to proceed in that manner if Sakura Hana were Mafia is if drawing a claim was a secondary objective, and the primary objective was to create distance between Boonskiies and the other Mafia players.

If ToastyToast is Mafia, then the claim from Boonskiies puts his lynch on the table when he was previously not in danger. Again, lynching Boonskiies is preferable to lynching ToastyToast there if they are both Mafia, so the only utility in claiming ToastyToast as a target (as opposed to some other player) is to create distance.

[Dierfire]

So basically....you think the Boonskiies lynch was orchestrated all to get a claim when the scum team could have continued another day without any scum flips if not for the Boons blow up.....

No, I'm saying that the intent behind Boonskiies making that claim was more to draw a counter than to save Boonskiies from the lynch. Obviously neither would have been necessary had he not reached L-1 in the first place (although his wagon did have help in reaching L-1).

If Sakura was mafia, then the plan was to give her town credit and/or to draw attention away from the building Garmr wagon. Drawing out a claim would at most have been a secondary benefit to the mafia.

I remain skeptical that Sakura Hana needs to make that action there to distract from a Garmr wagon when Garmr is potentially compromised by the night action.

[Dierfire]

That would be optimal play if there were sufficient uncertainty that we'd entertain the notion of lynching you under some scenarios, but that's not the case here. I don't think that the flipped roles favor the presence of a Godfather, and even if I knew for certain that there were a Godfather I don't have any specific reason to believe that it would be you rather than any other player.
The only way that we will fail to lynch today is if we are unable to agree upon a lynch. That would not be disastrous, but neither would it be optimal.

I'm still working through the game (in answer to your earlier question, the essence is that I have reasons to read both ToastyToast and Titus as Town and few reasons to read either as Mafia), but I think that I will be able to reach a best guess before the deadline. I'll commit to a vote within ((expired on 2016-05-29 12:00:00)).

[Dierfire]

I haven't made any progress but I still anticipate meeting my deadline (actually I should be able to do it an hour earlier because I forgot to set the counter to EDT instead of EST).

TIME UNTIL DIER VOTES

(expired on 2016-05-29 12:00:00)

[Dierfire]

If Titus is committed to voting for me then eventually I will have to vote for her. However, I have concerns.
The VCA didn't seem unreasonable to me; it is true that I have not been accurate this game, and a Town player could reasonably be suspicious of me on that count. I do want to hear her thoughts on how ToastyToast is clear by 1019, because I'm not sure that the context supports it. The NKA theory is far-fetched, which I usually associate with Town players, but if Titus is Mafia here then it's a reasonable plan to pick a lynch (me) and then throw out various arguments of various strength.
My concern with ToastyToast is that I don't see him making much of an effort to differentiate between Titus and myself. If he's Mafia here, his plan to win is essentially to coast to victory, which is consistent with his actions here.

[Dierfire]

I believe that that VC comes after Boonskiies claimed a role and some Town players removed their votes from him.
I'm sorry that you're not feeling well. I hope that you feel better soon.

[Dierfire]

Here's where I am.
I've read the game multiple times. I'm still uncertain, but I don't think that I'm likely to find anything by reading again that will help me. We don't need a lynch here, so if someone is actively working on something and needs more time, then we can try again in LYLO. Otherwise, I have no powerfully compelling case to bring against ToastyToast, so it seems likely to me that we'll need to lynch between me and Titus.

VOTE: Titus

[Dierfire]

@Titus

Presumably if you're Town, I'd need to present a fairly strong case against ToastyToast to allay your suspicions and convince you to vote for him (ToastyToast can't be lynched without your vote, in MYLO or LYLO). I have no such case, and I am unlikely to find one by reading yet again.

@mhsmith0

I don't understand the question. I felt good about both slots when we lynched Lowell. Obviously now I realize that one of them has to be Mafia, but other than that fact, I have no great insights to share. If you'd like me to go through why I was reading them as Town, I can reiterate those points. I'm leaving for dinner now, but I'll pull them together when I get back.

[Dierfire]

@mhsmith0

The question would be, do you have something meaningful separating them NOW, or is it just "well I gotta pick someone so sure, I'll pick Titus"? And failing that, do you have a solid case on yourself as town? Because "meh I don't really have an opinion" is pretty wolfy, because it's a lot easier to honestly say "meh whatever" when you know all of the answers are wrong, and don't feel like you can effectively sell a case for the final mislynch. If you're town, you should have an opinion and want to game solve.

If I had something meaningful separating them, I would have said so! I want to solve the game, but I am failing right now. Do you have any suggestions for how I should try to solve it? Like I said, I read the game over multiple times, and I'm still coming up with a coin toss.

[Dierfire]

@ToastyToast

This makes it sound like you're voting Titus because you think it is unlikely to swing a vote on me? That's not the towniest of attitudes.

If I felt strongly that you were the last Mafia player, then I would vote for you regardless of whether or not I thought that I'd be able to get you lynched! My problem is that I don't have any solid indication as to which player is Mafia. All other things being equal, the fact that Titus is voting for me and expressing a strong belief that I'm the last Mafia player means that if she's Town we're less likely to win.

EDIT: Fine...

[Dierfire]

@Mhsmith0

Oh, that should be "two players" right? I'm discounting the situation in which you are Mafia for reasons that I've explained (I don't believe that game balance favors the presence of a Godfather, I was reading you as Town at least as strongly as the others even before you were cleared).

[Dierfire]

Anyway, here's my thought on the game if ToastyToast is Mafia.
Actually, I'm splitting into phases.

Spoiler: Knightmare

It means that Knightmare moved that vote early in the game (22) to the first wagon that was neither on a Mafia player nor started by a Mafia player (assuming that the Almost50 wagon was too weird for that kind of thing), which is potentially a move to split up the votes.
Boonskiies adds a vote to the wagon and they fight a bit over whether it's RVS (48, among others). That argument could be an attempt to create distance, I suppose, but I can't see any specific reason that it's likely to be so.
Presumably Knightmare picks Lowell for his vote (61) because he thought that Lowell looked suspicious enough that he could park it there solely on the basis that he thought that one Mafia player would already be on his wagon (111, 116, and so on).
In that case, Boonskiies was always planning to remove the vote (200), and so the challenge afterward (207) was designed to express suspicion (not to give him a chance to explain, because Boonskiies does not do so when given a chance). Presumably he fails to follow it up because he doesn't actually want that interaction. Instead, he waits for a while and turns it into a Town read on the basis of activity (298).
His statement that he wants Garmr's thoughts (427 and the way that he follows it (437) would presumably be an attempt to create an interaction (is the lack of substance intentional?).
His 531 would then be an attempt to line up lynches on Town players.

Do the actions of the other Mafia players support him being Mafia? The interactions all seem superficial, but otherwise I don't see any smoking gun.

Spoiler: ToastyToast

He comes in with some points against Boonskiies (682) and a vote there (683), which is the first on the wagon. He stays pretty quiet until he calls Boonskiies "a lurker" (894). It helps create some distance, because Boonskiies melts down after crossing votes (904 first). At that point a small wagon had grown a bit on texcat without any Mafia players contributing, so I guess that the plan would have been to waste some time (936, 944[post, 976, and then move on closer to the deadline?
After Boonskiies claims he does not remove his vote (1024)--because he thinks that the wagon is gone for good?
He doesn't interact much with Garmr after Boonskiies flips, instead expressing suspicion of Expedience (who was suspicious of Garmr) before dropping that suspicion (1427[post], [post]1472) as the lynch approaches.
He expresses suspicion of mhsmith0 and texcat (1506) with a voting analysis that doesn't make him or Garmr stand out.
After mhsmith0 brings up the statistical case, he does start expressing minor suspicion of Garmr (1588) but doesn't get on the wagon, perhaps because he's setting up the game afterward (although he might also have been hoping that I'd remain suspicious enough of Lowell to push the lynch in that direction).
He came out pretty strongly against my lynch after Garmr was lynched and texcat was killed (1696) and preferred Lowell, which would mean that he killed texcat for some reason other than casting suspicion on me.
Now he'd be avoiding committing to a vote because he'd be hoping to coast to victory.

Do the actions of the other Mafia players support this scenario? Boonskiies has a fairly exaggerated response, so I suppose that it would be an attempt to create distance. Garmr barely interacts with him at all, which I suppose would be an attempt to stay below the radar.

Also, obviously in this scenario all of the interactions with Sakura Hana and Riabi are genuine, so they really thought that they'd rather be on the Boonskiies wagon than touch Sakura Hana, they never killed the slot because they didn't think that the fight with Boonskiies cleared it, and so on.

Plausible: yes
Compelling: no

UNVOTE: TItus

I'll think about it more, I guess.

[Dierfire]

Both slots fought with Boonskiies, who had overwrought reactions to both slots. Both helped lynch Boonskiies.
Both slots had minimal interactions with Garmr and were not on that lynch.
Neither slot helped to lynch Expedience. Both claimed to be reading Expedience as Town, although ToastyToast was willing to vote there to achieve a lynch.
ToastyToast helped to lynch Lowell, and Sakura Hana helped to lynch Madonna.

I'm tossing coins here.

[Dierfire]

I mean, I guess that we could just run out the clock today, wait for Titus to vote for me tomorrow, and see whether that ends the game.

[Dierfire]

Are you waiting to vote while you read/think more, or are you waiting to hear from me?

I'll keep trying to solve the game, but I'm pessimistic about my ability to do so convincingly in the event that Titus is Town and ToastyToast is Mafia.

[Dierfire]

I'm not saying that I'm unwilling to dig through the game yet again (or even multiple times). I'm saying that, having already done so multiple times without having an epiphany, I've no expectation of success.

Anyway, I shouldn't be lazy, so I'll continue to commit time for detailed readings. This is a busy weekend for me, but I expect to be able to take a long look tomorrow or Monday.

[Dierfire]

I was trying to see whether I could convince myself of a case on Titus on the grounds that she's still alive after so many people were strongly reading that slot as Town after the Boonskiies lynch, but ToastyToast hasn't had a vote since D1 and is on no lists in the polls by Almost50 (806, 1308), so there's something of an implicit universal Town read there.
I'd like to go through Garmr's words there in more detail to see whether I can make anything meaningful.

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, I knew that already!

[Dierfire]

Anyway, this is the post that I want to parse.

In other news, toasty is town.

Riabi probably not

.

Why "probably not" for Riabi? Given that he inherited Sakura's position (her treatment of boon was insanely aggressive for bussing IMO), that seems like a surprising read.

I can agree with this. Sakura/Riabi slot is strongest town read.

The question is whether Garmr (and the last Mafia player) actually believe that the slot appears obviously Town. If they do, and the slot is actually Town, then it should probably have died earlier (at the very least, a kill on Almost50 should not have been a PR hunt because he was hinting at information that they should have known to be false).
So I'm trying to decide why Garmr says that.

[Dierfire]

That's D4, when the wagon on Lowell is strong and the wagon on Garmr is just about to rise.

[Dierfire]

Wait, this might be it!

[Dierfire]

No, wait, ToastyToast is there too.

I was thinking:

Almost50 dies N3. This shouldn't have been an attempt to kill a PR, because his hint would have been recognized as bluffing by the Mafia, so one conceivable reason for his death is if they wanted to pin a lynch on mhsmith0--this might also explain his continued survival when many were reading him as Town).
The only vote that mhsmith0 picks up on D4 is Riabi.

The problem is that the reason given by Riabi (1518) refers back to ToastyToast (1506).

[Dierfire]

More on this tomorrow, I guess.

[Dierfire]

Mobile post: sorry, connectivity issues, back within 24 hours!

[Dierfire]

Hey, I am getting old and wrinkly. If you haven't "reached a conclusion" by Saturday, I am voting you. If Toasty is scum, gg to him.

This is fair.

[Dierfire]

Spoiler: Effort

So, I'm back on Garmr's 1545. Why express a strong read on Riabi as Town there? If Garmr (and the other Mafia player) believe that the slot appears obviously Town, and it is, then it should have probably died before texcat (and possibly before Almost50, although it does look as though they were trying to get mhsmith0 lynched by killing Almost50). If they believe that it does not appear obviously Town, then I'd argue that it's likely to be Mafia (my thought is that Mafia players would be biased towards perceiving a Town player that falsely claimed a role in order to facilitate a Mafia lynch as difficult to lynch).
There's also this: at this point, the wagon on Garmr has not taken off, and an incorrect lynch there would have created MYLO, during which it would have been helpful for Garmr to be able to move either way on the slot (defend it as Town or act paranoid of such a strong read surviving).

Lastly, Boonskiies's tone in this post feels less staged and more like an attempt at persuasion. Given his other interactions, which were often theatrical and overwrought, I find this more likely to be legitimate.

VOTE: Knight

Didn't feel like reading his last post. LOL

@chilled - Lel, this was obviously RVS, but k.

It really wasn't obvious RVS though.

I said as much to you back when it happened. The sequence of your posts doesn't make it apparent, so no, I don't think it's unreasonable to draw the conclusion that you were voting me for being defensive.

Regardless, even if it had been real, why would that have been bad, besides you just getting angry for being voted? Am I not supposed to try and sort you? It's not like I even tunnel fuck conf bias'd on you. In fact, I invited and town read you after. I don't even believe I was the front runner in pushing you.

Intent to vote Titus

That's what I've got. It's my best guess, but I won't pretend to be confident in it.

[Dierfire]

@ToastyToast

Into your hands I commend my spirit.

VOTE: Titus

[Dierfire]

I'm pleased to have guessed correctly.

[Dierfire]

Grah, that's too bad.
Obviously me being a viable lynch in LYLO is my fault--my reads were poor in this game, and being indecisive in MYLO and LYLO was no help. Perhaps I should just have followed mhsmith0.
I also owe Expedience an apology for the D3 lynch, which I think was probably my worst vote. I was reading Expedience as Town, and fairly strongly, but I didn't have the fortitude to stick with my read (if only I'd been similarly open to influence in the later game...).
As far as night actions, in addition to using the Watcher action on chilledtea, the JOAT should also probably have strongly claimed the innocent result on mhsmith0 before using the Commuter role (in order to eat the kill and buy an extra lynch). (EDIT:What Mod said)

Well, played, everyone!

@Mod

Thanks for running the game!

[Dierfire]

As a side note, I still think that lynching Sakura Hana over Boonskiies is a good play there if we're determined to lynch one of them (although clearly I was off in my read there, the only time that that strategy is bad is if they're both Town).

[Dierfire]

As a side note, I still think that lynching Sakura Hana over Boonskiies is a good play there if we're determined to lynch one of them (although clearly I was off in my read there, the only time that that strategy is bad is if they're both Town).

Honestly the right lynch there was garmr given that both "jailer" claims were "for" it.

True, lynching Garmr is certainly (statistically) a good move there if we believe chilledtea (which I did not--and which I did not correctly recall until much later when you pointed it out). I don't know that the claim by Boonskiies made it any better, though.