Mini Normal 1775 END!

[ToastyToast]

Yo people I'm drinking beacause I'm FUCKING 23 and I FUCKING can. But I'll still be making a post in a bit--I caught up over the night phase so if you have anything you want me to address before I post let me know.

[ToastyToast]

Alright, but actually. Way too defensive already. It's page 2. Hot damn.

Defensiveness isn't a scum tell.

Townies and scum don't want to get lynched either way. I'm gonna call out bad reasons regardless. This counts as one.

My understanding was the defensiveness WAS a scum tell. Not a "only scum do it" thing but something that leans scum more than town. Am I off base here? Admitted newbie (this is my third game and first participating in RVS) so maybe my theory background is weaker than I thought, so please do correct me if I'm mistaken.

You are correct. I actually do believe defensiveness leans more scum. Especially if scum thinks they are caught and shouldn't be.

This is seriously all you fucking got about this? It's fucking easy to do this. Watch. What the hell do you want me to do? I gave you a fantastic unalignment indicative statement about why I will be fucking busy today, and now I'm taking up my time to do this. You're god damn welcome. It's page 9. Nothing has happened. I am known for being good AFTER information is revealed into this game. I am known to end days with a quick hammer, AS TOWN, so we can move on from nothingness and actually get to figuring out the game.

For someone who thinks defensiveness leans scum, you sure are...defensive. Yikes.

Additionally, if you think Knight is defensive then y'all got a storm coming.

Toss in a50 and could that be scum team? Could it really be THAT easy? Would they really be THAT blatant? Worth considering I suppose. Easy answers make me uneasy but it's not like scum teams never screw up. Hmm...

I don't really care if the slot has played three games or 100--trying to catch entire scum teams this early is pretty scummy. Setting up chain lynches is never a good idea. The newb card is a very effective one, so when I see it used like 3 times during a catch up it definitely rubs me the wrong way. Also:

I actually find the "here since 2006" argument shades against the "easy fall guy" point. I would think he'd learn how to avoid that by now. I don't mind re-reading the cases against Lowell to see if anything looks odd, but I feel my case against him is solid. His behavior has to me reeked of scum, not of lazy mislynch bait.

Using the length of someone's time on this site against them while simultaneously using your lack of experience as a defense is icky. There are plenty of really experienced players who are also lynchbait. Lowell has given so little information that it is impossible to tell if he is using it as a cover or if he actually is just uselessly dedicated to gut reading. I play based on gut too--but I don't just say "this is a gut read" and stop right there.

Other reads:
Sakura Hana: I'm having trouble figuring out if my scummy read on her comes from the fact that she is very different in game style/beliefs than I am or if it is actually something she did.

A-50: Spends too much time teaching and preaching. I also HATE town blocks and have never seen one work. All it takes is one scum to slip into the alleged "strong town" group to lead to a game loss. And trying to aim for that kind of strategy as early as he did isn't a good sign--exactly how do you propose town "move together" if they have different reads?

Lowell: I see them as lynchbait at the moment so I don't think they are the correct lynch today. For the people voting him, think about if your reads only result from his relative uselessness thus far or something else.

Main townreads right now are Expedience and Sayaka. They are both being productive at least.
Gamr: Don't see the town vibes other people are getting. Null

[ToastyToast]

vote:Bookskies

for now.

[ToastyToast]

Idk where this texcat wagon came from so I guess I have to catch up >.>

[ToastyToast]

@ToastyToast:

1) wrt 682, in 43 I used the "newbie defense" with respect to my understanding of theory. Frankly, there are areas where I don't know as much as others. If that rubs you the wrong way, oh well I guess.

And while that may be genuine, it is a very easy cop-out for new scum players. This alone would not constitute a read, but I'm just pointing out to people that you shouldn't be getting shrugged off just for the fact that you are newer to the game. And I think a few players are doing just that.

2) Can you explain the "simultaneous" part? The quotes you cited (43 and 371) are over 48 hours apart.

Perhaps simultaneous isn't the best word. I mean it is hypocritical to use one's experience to defend themselves and then attack someone for the same reason. It may be low experience vs significant experience but I think the rest of my response explained why I don't like it. I'm really experienced but I often do the same things even if they get me in trouble. Lowell could have many reasons for continuing with the play-style he does and I find it scummy to suggest otherwise.

3) Why do you think trying to catch scum teams early is scummy? Should we not be looking for multiple scum? Should we not be working to develop other reads in case target #1 claims a PR? Should we not be exploring possible connections between slots for usefulness given flips? I don't really understand your perspective here.

Because it can get over-complicated really fast. I believe you should first get a scum flip and then establish connections from there. There are some exceptions to this--such as a player buddying up on a player widely thought to be town--but it is still a weak read until there is a flip to back it up.

It can also lead to chain lynching and incorrect reads further down the line. Like, this person MUST be on a scum team with x and x. One of them gets lynched, so the other two follow. If both flip town we're fucked. It is an easy strategy for scum if one of them is in trouble--they can use the lynch to their advantage.

Getting an incorrect read would come from the opposite situation: Ie, people believe 3 players are scum together. One gets lynched and flips town. The other two end up with a free pass at least temporarily.

Both are outcomes that ultimately benefit scum, so I feel like it is much less risky to just find a person you think is scummy on there own before focusing too much on associations between players (not to mention there could be a role like masons where two town players know one another's alignment and act accordingly)

[ToastyToast]

Your interracial

lmao

@Sakura: those posts of expedience's that you listed don't read as misreps to me. I think it is a weak interpretation but those are different things. Could you explain further why you feel those were misreps? I didn't like Expedience's condescending tone but I felt like he was trying to get a reaction out of you.

This whole argument between Sakura, Expedience, and Gamr is certainly informative (and really boring) but I don't find any of them scummy enough to warrant a lynch. My scumreads seem really different from everyone else. You need to stop tunneling one another because I get a strong feeling that scum is just waiting on the sidelines for one argument to win out. But my first post in the game also only garnered a response from mhsmith. I pointed out a contradiction in boonskies post that no one even glanced at.

My mafia theory suggests one scum in each of the following groups (I believe that no matter the playstyle, scum teams will try to "fill the void" of these spots and adapt accordingly. Additionally, I find that most scum teams have at least one member they are willing to lynch if they need to in order to establish town cred or protect themselves (the scapegoat). Because we have more people taking the backseat I think there is a strong chance that two of the scum team are trying to coast by, which makes the sheep/lurker groups better targets for a lynch.

The Leader:

Almost50

,

Expedience

, Garmr, Sakura Hana* (despite her recent posts, which show more lurker than anything else, she's still provided decent content D1 and is driving discussion)
The Sheep: chilledtea, mhsmith0 (I feel better about him based on recent posts), texcat
The Lurker:

Boonskies

, Goodlordwill/dierfire, Lowell,

Sayaka Maizono

As you can see, I'm having trouble reading the sheep group currently.

[ToastyToast]

Toasty: Why do we have opposite reads regarding Almost and Expedience, i don't understand why anyone's townreading what he's doing, i don't get why ppl don't see what i'm seeing, and the only person that's actually been seeing what im seeing is Almost50 as shown in 673 which is another reason for me to think he's town.

I think I mentioned this in my first post but pretty much everything Almost says I associate with key ways to give scum an advantage: town blocks, teaching, confusing "scum" with "playing in a way that I dislike," whining about how scummy everything is. I also dislike his reasoning for his scum-reads but he isn't someone I would want to lynch today so I'm not going to create a giant wall post.

As for the Expedience read, he's condescending but it is straight up town aggression. Scum wouldn't be that openly antagonistic--it doesn't make any friends.

[ToastyToast]

-For the record I also don't agree with his read on you

639: He sorta backed off from it after you corrected him? I think him saying you hate the idea that Lowell got a "quick lynch" (it wasn't that quick) when you yourself were on the wagon is an understandable thing to attack--at least before it was clarified. Scum and town are equally capable of misreading things.

641: I dislike his trying to force you to vote someone but I dislike A50's "will you vote Lowell, please?" more. Again, Expedience's aggression reads more like someone trying to push the game forward than it does someone trying to get a person mislynched.

PEDIT:

@boonskies:

if you are talking about my leader/sheep/lurker thing, you are overreacting to the label. It isn't scummy on its own. But you've been busy (which is fine) and have come to the thread multiple times just to say you'd get to the game later. So, yes, you are a lurker.

You're scummy because I find you hypocritical.

Explain to me how "raising the pool of who to be able to lynch" isn't just putting forth my own reads because I disagree with the popular opinion.

[ToastyToast]

"not a lurker" Boonskies over here like:

I'll catch up tomorrow. Busy past couple of days. Party tonight for Saint patty's, woot woot.

I'm lax and lazy, and don't think people need to get defensive that early in the game. Very rarely do quick lynched happen day 1, and if it were to happen, best be knowing imma be tunnel fucking the next day.

Ugh, please don't make me try so hard on page 8...I just came on to do a quick check of my games while I have a few minutes to spare.

I don't have any reads yet. I don't have reasons for doing anything. I'm waiting for stuff to happen.

Need I go on?

Then transitions in a giant whine fest about whether or not his vote was an RVS vote while previously saying how SCUMMY it is to be defensive. My main reason for voting boonskies is the fact that he attacked me/knight for being over-defensive before quickly becoming the most over-defensive person in the game.

Followed by a lot of artificial content like asking people to read Sakura without following up on why he's asking and doing those little "here is a quote and attached to it I'll say I find it suspicious" posts that are oh-so-prevalent amongst his tribe of "not lurkers"

Then he says he dislikes the Lowell content (honestly I feel like this is his most informative chain of one liners)

Things about how he likes to hammer (no one cares)

Day 2, hasn't been around at all.

@Boonskies:

You are the quintessential active lurker in this game

[ToastyToast]

So him saying "Ok you didnt but you basically did" nullifies what he said? seriously?

It was immediately after, so yeah I think it does.

@Boonskiies:

are you sure you aren't misrepping yourself?

There are plenty of people I'd classify lurkers who post on every other page. Has nothing to do with how many posts or when they post them. It has everything to do with how much is actual content.

I divide people into 3 categories in nearly every game I play. Get over it.

[ToastyToast]

Wait, holy fuck. You are meta diving me on the lurking?!?!?! I thought you were on the fucking anger. Hell, fuck this. I'm a fucking known lurker as both fucking alignments. People have labeled it as "Boonskiies is always a lurker". I don't agree with it, but I guess I see what the "active lurker" is saying. IT IS NOT FUCKING ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE. You idiots just go ahead and fucking lynch me.

For the one billionth time I never said lurking was alignment indicative. Stop misrepping.
And weren't you just arguing that you weren't a lurker?

[ToastyToast]

Hi all, I'm at a conference at the moment so it is difficult for me to respond. For now I'll just say that Boon makes zero sense...we had no kill last night. If he indeed jail kept me last night, wouldn't he have been gunning for me harder?

[ToastyToast]

Ah he thinks he blocked the kill.

[ToastyToast]

Still here guys, sorry for the unofficial VLA. Getting in tonight so if game is still open I'll catch up

[ToastyToast]

So I think we need to be taking a closer look at the leaders. Now that we have a scum flip, it is imperative that we look at the associations.

Day talk is also confirmed to have existed given Boons flip, so we need to keep in mind that the scum team was likely coordinated. I think it is likely that Boon ended up getting used as a scapegoat to help establish town cred among some other players, so I'm not clearing anyone off the table--not even Sakura although I find that highly unlikely. Got to look at where the momentum was going.

Associations are going to be easier to find among the leader group. Obviously given how Expedience interacted with the Boon wagon, he is a prime suspect. Almost50 is also still a possibility because of the somewhat weak "confrontation" Boon kept mentioning. Boon was also really hypocritical throughout the game (my primary reason for voting him), so I want to double check exactly what things were making him waffle more. Garmr is sort of the wild card in this--he was important early day 2 and sort of fell into the background as the Boon discussion started taking out. Updating my list to match my current reads.

Orange="One of"
Yellow=suspect but not a good lynch today

The Leader:

Almost50, Expedience,

Garmr,

Sakura Hana*

(despite her recent posts, which show more lurker than anything else, she's still provided decent content D1 and is driving discussion)
The Sheep:

chilledtea

, mhsmith0,

texcat

The Lurker:

Boonskies

,

Goodlordwill/dierfire

, Lowell, Sayaka Maizono

[ToastyToast]

also Im sorry if that red is the color we aren't supposed to use--I just saw that in the rules

[ToastyToast]

How close were we to deadline when the people who didn't want to vote Boons did so (namely, Expedience).

[ToastyToast]

If there's one and only one thing I know, it's that sakura is town. That was too real to be bussing. Come at me, bros.

I'd +1 here. Not totally impossible, but that would be an incredibly ballsy scum play, especially since it (presumably) killed off day chat, which is a HUGE cost to scum team. Certainly I can't think of anyone who's merited a stronger town read at this point than Sakura.

Yeah, I'm just not writing her off completely because there was day talk...but it still makes little sense as to why they would try to get boon lynched unless they were trying to protect someone else....boon likely would not have been lynched if the sakura-boon exchange did not happen.

[ToastyToast]

Toasty, Can you explain your town read of Dierfire for me?

I thought his assessment of Expedience was fair and his scum read on chilled tea made sense--even if it chilled ended up flipping town.

[ToastyToast]

@Lowell: I initially thought mhs felt artificial but I've since dropped it because of the consistency. Do you think the way he approaches the game could be contributed to style?

@Dierfire: A couple of things...this may come off as me defending Lowell but it is more that I think you are assuming that everyone approaches mafia with a certain type of reasoning.

1) Who cares if Boonskiies didn't hammer? I fail to see why this is significant, especially given that Boons entire game was "sorry I'm busy I'll be back later to yell at someone before I leave and do nothing again." Although Boon is known for hammering, there is nothing suggesting that he'd do it every game, regardless of alignment.
2) I read ISO's to prove my points all the time. It may seem like a bad approach to some but for those of us who operate more on gut it is very useful. It "usually" means starting with some abstract thought then finding empirical evidence for it a la deductive reasoning. Since we know Lowell is a gut player,

[ToastyToast]

@Dierfire: ah, you're right. Thanks for catching it. You aren't far off. I was just saying that if Lowell is a gut player, I know from my own experience that using ISO's is a way to figure out "why" you are feeling some way. And that often leads to misreading context. I think I'd have to see more clear intent to be convinced that he was being intentionally misleading. I will look at some more Boon-Lowell associations though.

[ToastyToast]

I can certainly see a potential association w/ Lowell due to Boon's non-hammer, but I'd also consider it plausible that Boon's scum-mates told him not to draw attention to himself by derp-hammering, or that he himself made that call. I'd tend to file that one under somewhat suspicious as opposed to strongly incriminating.

This is what I'm saying. Believe me or not, but I'd never derp-hammer a scumpartner as scum. If you're not bussing early and often, there's no reason to bus at all.

There is too much WIFOM going on in this exchange.

And he spent practically the entirety of the game defending me and agreeing with my reads except he didn't want to lynch Garmr. I guess as he went down he tried to tie me to him as much as possible and I messed up by going along with it.

This is sort of an event that we can't tell either way. Both are possibilities but harping on it is useless. Question is WHEN did he start to tie himself to you? If it was before he was even in trouble of being lynched, then I think the chances of you being a scum buddy would be higher. You also spent a lot of time defending Boons, which strikes me as odd because he did next to nothing but yell whenever someone questioned his alignment...where exactly did your town read (or was it null, can't remember) derive from?

In other news, Maestro is being irrelevant. Secretly a boonskiies alt?

[ToastyToast]

Hmm. I think I'm gonna do a voting analysis today.

@Expedience wagon: what would expedience scum gain from hard-defending then voting for boon?

[ToastyToast]

vote: Almost50

[ToastyToast]

I'll hammer if I need to--I don't think Expedience is the right lynch but my read on him isn't strong enough to actively resist it. I will say this though:

No one seemed to want to know why I voted Almost50. It's because everything he says comes off as a poor ass attempt to rally votes without much reasoning. Its all like "but voting Expedience is just the

logical

thing to do!!! No its not. Expedience hard defending Boons when Boon lynch momentum was that strong has no value for scum. All the arguments I've seen just sound like arguments made to fit a scum read that already exists.

Also, how useless is that? If you're getting NK'd tonight and scum knows you know something already, maybe just tell us now? Seems like that would be quite helpful to have known earlier rather than when the day is about to end.

[ToastyToast]

The Leader:

Almost50, Expedience,

Garmr, Riabi
The Sheep:

chilledtea

,

mhsmith0, texcat

The Lurker:

Boonskies

,

dierfire

, Lowell, Alone

# of times on the lynch wagon:

ToastyToast: 1 (Boon, 1st on)
Garmr: 2 (Boon, 2nd, Expedience, 2nd)
Riabi: 2 (Madonna, 5th, Boon, 5th)
mhsmith0: has be "not voting" at every lynch
texcat: All 3 (4th, 3rd, 3rd)
Lowell: 1 (Expedience, 4th)
Alone: 1 (Expedience, 6th)

I think this info makes mhsmith0 and texcat the most suspicious. Also, what exactly is the verdict on Almost50's "I'm certain mhsmith0 is scum" thing? I don't think we should ignore it--it was probably a bluff but he DID end up getting lynched.

@Alone: did you know you were lynching Expedience when you voted?

[ToastyToast]

VOTE: Lowell
I still think Garmr was the target of the kill.

Why?

[ToastyToast]

oop. Not lynched. Night Killed*

[ToastyToast]

As for why Toasty didn't vote, that's actually a good question. Why didn't you vote Toasty?

I haven't decided if I think mhs or texcat is scummier. My brain tells me mhs but my gut says otherwise.

@mhsmith: Why did you ignore my post? Why have you "not voted" every lynch thus far?

[ToastyToast]

Hey guys--busy weekend. I'll be caught up on Monday

[ToastyToast]

CT's action makes Garmr WAY more likely than random chance. If we presume it's a 10v3 setup, there are 2 mafia left among 8 players, so random chance is 25%. But the CT jail action means Garmr is >50% wolf (off the top of my head, I think it's 12 / 23, or 52%, but I could be off). So that seems like a pretty decent likelihood, although I still want to dig around and see what I think of the dead legacy cases against Garmr first.

Sort of confused. How is this percentage in comparison to other players?

If someone wants to make a solid case for Garmr as town I'll listen, but all of this is good enough for me. I'll dig into Exp vs Garmr more later on, but between this stuff and the mechanical 50-50 odds of Garmr being the N1 shooter, I think this is the right lynch for today.

Ok so we know ChilledTea already had a scum read on Garmr. But this isn't really an analysis of boon/Garmr interactions?

Just want to throw out there this morning, this argument between Garmr and Lowell I feel is somewhat coordinated and I feel like those 2 are the most likely scum team

If I was scum with lowell I would of jumped on to madonna instead of trying to keep the lowell wagon afloat.

yeah, this is bad.

Riabi, your vote is on mhsmith, isn't it? Do you think Garmr and Lowell can both be scum?

This wasn't directed to me but obviously its possible. I didn't see if you had any posts on the Garmr-Lowell connection, did you see anything suspicous?

I actually do think it is probably a good time to see how people are tied together. I think it would be incredibly odd for an mhs-garmr scum team to exist at this point. No reason for them to go after one another at this point if they were.

I feel most confident at this point for Lowell being mafia. It's some gut feeling based on what's been going on, but also I found the beginning of the game a little interesting. He didn't help with the lynching on the first 2 days, and one of those was a mafia. There was only one other if I remember correctly who didn't participate against the mafia. From a mafia stand point, I feel it is smart to want to distance yourself at the beginning and not take part of any lynching in case it goes a little sour.

That's nice but mhs not voted on every vote. Funny enough, Maestro (the one you replaced) also did not vote on the boons lynch.

Also, scum can easily jump on a wagon with momentum on a scumbuddy if they think it'll help get them towncred. I'd find that more likely then staying off in most situations actually.

[ToastyToast]

Dierfire and Mhs' role in the game lynch yesterday makes me think they are town. I don't see scum building a statistical case on a scumbuddy day 4.

Hmm, scum lynch an attempt to confuse everyone probably. I would think Tex would have been a likely lynch today.

Anyways, that leaves heuristic, alone, and riabi as scumspects

[ToastyToast]

Oops. Heaurissjjahsbdalone and Lowell* and Riabi. Lowell is also somewhat unlikely since he was the counter lynch

[ToastyToast]

Actually... one other question (I know, I know, it's annoying). Is it standard procedure for a sub to be told the results of his slot's prior night actions? On MU (I play some there too) it's not, so I'd like confirmation of site norms here. If it's not standard operating procedure here, we may have caught our last mafia. If it is standard operating procedure, then never mind.

I've always been told upon replacement.

[ToastyToast]

@all: If I understand correctly, h_a is claiming some form of JOAT. Is it "normal" to have both a town-aligned JOAT and a town-aligned JK in this size game?

It can be considered "normal" in terms of game set up but it does seem a little OP. @h_a: did you say what powers you had already/if you've used any?
As for using the cop thing first night, idk. I've never seen the order in which someone uses one shots as important.

@Toast: can you give us an update of your chart? And which of those three slots (leader/sheep/lurker) would you put yourself in, and why?

Can you both give me your town reads as of the end of the day yesterday, including that of texcat?

Both list and reads. I was scum reading mhs and texcat. Now I think mhs is town too and think scum is between riabi and alone. Not ruling out lowell because he's a hard to read troll (and I can see him making a flop texcat NK). I also worry how a 2 v 1 would go with lowell at the end. I was null on Garmr yesterday and probably would have put my vote on mhsmith.

The Leader:

Almost50, Expedience,

Garmr

, Riabi
The Sheep:

chilledtea

,

mhsmith0

,

texcat

The Lurker:

Boonskies

,

dierfire

, Lowell, Alone

As you can see, if this were a predicted scum team, mhs would be the last member. But this would not make much sense given yesterday. Plus I think mhs has been proactive town today, using the town read people have on him to push the game forward (scum can do this too but it reads town in this case). Given the amount of replacements in this game, having 2 lurkers is definitely a possibility. I don't change someone's slot on the list based on replacement but I probably should.

@all: if we believe alone's claim, then we had a JK, AND a JOAT, AND a universal backup. Is that normal/balanced? I'll admit not really being familiar with how this tends to work, but that seems a bit unbalanced off the cuff, especially given that mafia's day chat depended on one specific role staying alive. Throw in Garmr hammering right after alone voted... I dunno.

No, too much power. I'm VT btw.

I'll find some of my games in a bit. But the info in my signature area is correct lol. I've been on this website for almost 6 years and have STILL only been mafia twice.

[ToastyToast]

Did you guys forget to go to mafia training camp? You don't base votes on "who is most likely to make x kill" unless you have a really clear motivation...and I've seen literally zero of that....

[ToastyToast]

Also Mhs I feel like you're speculating too much today and scum would take advantage of it. If I find motivation I'll analyze it.

[ToastyToast]

Alright, so my thing right now is that Lowell has gotten to the point where he's anti town at best. I hate having to decide if someone is bad town or scum.

Dier scum doesn't make sense to me. I need more expansion like Mhs on this one.

@Dietfire: is there something I can address with regards to your suspicion?

[ToastyToast]

Lowell has had a wagon on him every day but it has always swung at some point. The pattern is actually strikingly consistent.

-Garmr did rest his vote on Lowell on Day 1 when the wagon shifted to Madonna. Not sure if this is something inherently scummy but it does stick out to me given Garmr seemed to always go in the Lowell direction.

My question from that though is...why Lowell? Garmr kept going back to that read. With only one buddy left after boons died, would Garmr have reason to vote Lowell-scum?

Also this is more just an observation but Garmr self-lynched himself because of his scumbuddy (apparently boonskiis specifically) but I feel like Garmr would be even more annoyed if his other buddy was Lowell. Like, yikes, I can't wait to see the scum teams convos if that is the case

[ToastyToast]

You still haven't really given much reasons behind your Dierfire vote either...

[ToastyToast]

If you're bored in the meantime I guess that you could tell me who you think is the last Mafia player.

Right now, Lowell is my lead with alone close behind.

But I think I'm getting confused on who has what role...who is the claimed jailkeeper? Was it Riabi?

[ToastyToast]

smith, you can't be serious. your analysis is impossibly boring and wrong

VOTE: Lowell

I really don't like how Lowell has defended himself for the most part. Most of his defenses to other's reads/evidence/analysis has read like this and I am astounded it has worked this entire time.

This is how my towngames usually go. Ppl say "ugh lowell is scummy" but don't vote me bc in their hearts they know it's just laziness, not scumminess. Then at some point they get annoyed and lynch me, then comfort themselves the next day by remarking on how scummy I was playing.

What's say we just skip the last part and go right to lynching dier, the obvious final scum. smith, it seems strange that you of all people think associative tells are useless all of a sudden. be better.

This isn't a defense, get better at the game.
People "get annoyed and lynch" you because it is hard to read your alignment and that is dangerous in the later days of a game. I can just imagine a situation where there are 3 players left and you are one of them....the chance of miss-lynching and giving scum the win is really high. If you are town, then it still is more beneficial for scum to keep you than it is for town...

Every game you have a percentage chance of rolling scum. You can say "oh but town always does this to me," but that doesn't say anything about the alignment. If I were getting suspected right now I could say "well I've only been scum twice I never get scum" but that also wouldn't say shit. I still have the same chance at rolling scum in a game as everyone else.

So why should I think you're town? The only thing stopping me from lynching you is Riabi just disappearing from the game and the fact that alone's claim is an easy one to fake.

[ToastyToast]

To be honest mhs I've read maybe 25% of your posts. Not everyone writes as much as you (sorry if this sounds rude, I just don't think overanalyzing things gets us anywhere).

The fact that Riabi has said literally nothing in what feels like....the whole game is more troubling to me than anything Sakura did. But Sakura was equally involved in the Boonskiies lynch and I don't quite know how you leap to them being scumbuddies together--they were also a prime target of scum for a time during day phases.
I'd rather lynch Lowell first. All scum is going to do is kill off town reads, and that won't leave us better off with him around. I do agree that the lack of town power gives alone some town cred but I don't base my decisions on unnecessary set up speculation.

vote:Lowell

[ToastyToast]

Also random thing I noticed: garmr posted a reads list pretty early day one. Lowell was a primary scum read of his wheras both Sakura Hana and Boonskiies were town reads. Hard to say if scum would straight up town read all their scum buddies or try to distribute them somewhat.

[ToastyToast]

hmmmm....

[ToastyToast]

I definitely see what you are saying, that riabi follows a more standard scum outline, but something I've noticed is that the scum play on mafiascum is often evolving and rarely the scum will be following what seems most standard and ordinary for scum. Also, I tend to trust one's own initial intuition. My psychology teacher used to say that one's first notion is usually correct and when one tries to second guess himself, he's usually wrong. I really hope we're not wrong this time.

That's always the case but then what's the point of scum reading?

[ToastyToast]

or scum hunting in general

[ToastyToast]

Why does the lynch make it nearly certain that he's town?

[ToastyToast]

Why does the lynch make it nearly certain that he's town?

Alone claimed a cop check on me, and he flipped that he actually had a cop check. So mechanically either I'm godfather or I'm an investigative immune SK or I'm town.

Ah gotcha. I suppose godfather is a possibility still. But I also don't think scum would be so proactive.

So that leaves Dierfire and Titus. I've had a town read on dier for most of the game so I'll have to reinvesting ate him. Titus's slot has been so quiet that I hope they are able to provide some insight (finally). Especially with regards to day 5, where riabi was completely absent

[ToastyToast]

Hey, Toasty, I'm leaning town on you. You said you want my insight... yet ignore my post about 1801 seeming like posturing. Like the whole thing about Dierfire reads like he's trying to set up 3p lylo.

You'll have to clarify what you mean by posturing. I don't particularly like 1801, if only because a) it was clear from yesterday that Lowell wasn't the only option and b) I think everyone has pointed to that interaction between Boonskiies, myself, and Sakura (Titus). Dier would have to say one of me/titus is scum regardless of their alignment; just as I have to decide between Titus/Dier and you have to decide between Dier/myself. I hardly think stating this is an attempt to set up a 3p lylo.

[ToastyToast]

So basically....you think the Boonskiies lynch was orchestrated all to get a claim when the scum team could have continued another day without any scum flips if not for the Boons blow up.....

-Boons could just as easily have claimed to jailkeep me (I could have been a night kill target) to protect me that night and get himself towncred
-You're assuming Boons operates on logical, utility driven moves (did you see him in the game?)
-Or he was just building his fake claim, which he'd have reason to do given his power.
-

[ToastyToast]

@Titus: Could you sum up your thoughts about Day 5? Namely, what did you think of the decision to lynch Lowell?

[ToastyToast]

The only logic I can personally apply to the night kill choices is twofold:
1) Scum was targeting potential power roles, so people who were under the radar
2) Last remaining scum was hiding in the players deemed to be town, which would explain why both mhs and myself are still alive.

[ToastyToast]

Hey guys, sorry about not posting. I should've declared a v/la as I've been away from the inter webs all weekend. I apologize for my lack of investment recently.

I am of the opinion that a no lynch isn't the end of the world, if only because Mhsmith could be a godfather + the kills thus far haven't made much sense. That said, I'll get in another post today.

[ToastyToast]

ew, yeah too much WIFOM

[ToastyToast]

My concern with ToastyToast is that I don't see him making much of an effort to differentiate between Titus and myself. If he's Mafia here, his plan to win is essentially to coast to victory, which is consistent with his actions here.

That's because I've become disinterested.

Thoughts on Dierfire: The only reason I had a townread on the slot is the contributions made toward the Garmr lynch. This makes me lean Titus. However you've also left pretty much every lynch open, making it seem like you support x outcome. The only person I recall you having a solid townread on is smith, so that worries me.

Thoughts on Titus: Extreme lurking of the slot makes them look bad. Titus has been more active but the slot as a whole has been suspicious for a while now. Very little involvement in the scum lynches.

[ToastyToast]

P-edit, is there anything that you have a question for me directly? I can't do anything about the slot's behavior before me, but I can answer things and how things work. I'm pretty sure by just how things laid out that it's Diefire?

Ok, well part of my hesitance to agree with your case on Dierfire is that it sounds like confirmation bias. Looking mostly at the night kills and motivations for them is somewhat limiting. I tend to vote based on actions I see during the day phase. Is there any particular posts from Dier himself--not other people talking about Dierfire--that you find suspicious? Also, there is a reason I'm asking you about your thoughts on Day 5 + the Lowell lynch so I'd still like to see something about that. Kind of hard to do in hindsight but that entire day I kept thinking about Riabi's absence and if it was wrong to lynch Lowell when one slot was giving even less information.

[ToastyToast]

@Titus: I'm not expecting you to re-read. I just don't buy that Dier is the only possible person who would have made the odd kill choices, so I was hoping to see if you had anything on his own posts that would lead you to believe he would kill certain people.

Also random thing I noticed: garmr posted a reads list pretty early day one. Lowell was a primary scum read of his wheras both Sakura Hana and Boonskiies were town reads. Hard to say if scum would straight up town read all their scum buddies or try to distribute them somewhat.

Also I think I'm going to revisit Garmr tonight because this is still stuck in my mind. I think if we're going to get any associations then it'll be via garmr and not boonskiies.

[ToastyToast]

@Titus
Presumably if you're Town, I'd need to present a fairly strong case against ToastyToast to allay your suspicions and convince you to vote for him (ToastyToast can't be lynched without your vote, in MYLO or LYLO). I have no such case, and I am unlikely to find one by reading yet again.

This makes it sound like you're voting Titus because you think it is unlikely to swing a vote on me? That's not the towniest of attitudes.

[ToastyToast]

With only 8 hours left and people (presumably) going to be asleep, the clock will likely run out....

[ToastyToast]

On the off chance that I die, in actually starting to lean Dierfire

vote:no lynch

[ToastyToast]

Oh shot, game opened! Busy weekend but I will do some more association stuff soon

[ToastyToast]

Really wish this game wasn't ending during like the two busiest weeks ever. So I've done some brief reviewing of Dierfire (going to do the same with Titus later). I think my biggest concern with him is the associations brought up between his slot and texcat. goodwill was going after tex in his last few posts (a jump from lowell). There were no scum wagons at the time, but the lowell wagon was going. Would scum have motive to keep Lowell around? probably. He also hard-defended boons and was going after chilled tea before that flip.

Sorry it was brief. Happy we have a decent amount of time as all be free from school after wednesday.

[ToastyToast]

What was the context for that? I'd say Sakura read was strong day 1, 2

[ToastyToast]

Thoughts on Titus slot (I know you can't answer to all these points because a lot of them are Sakura related):

Sakura voted my slot and got worried when people started to join the wagon. This suggests that they were either worried scum was capitalizing or that they would get the blame in the event of a mislynch. They were also pretty wishy-washy on Lowell and had an early FOS on Boon, but no vote. The indecision isn't a good sign.

They then thought Expedience/Lowell/Boons were the scums and had very little interaction with Garmr. The good sign, however, is that it shows Sakura had growing suspicions on Boons long before he imploded.

Toasty: Why do we have opposite reads regarding Almost and Expedience, i don't understand why anyone's townreading what he's doing, i don't get why ppl don't see what i'm seeing, and the only person that's actually been seeing what im seeing is Almost50 as shown in 673 which is another reason for me to think he's town.

I also remember this being an odd exchange. The reason I disliked Almost was that I despise it when people try to form town blocks. They damage the town more than help them. I also dislike vote-pressuring that extends beyond a case, which is kind of what Sakura was doing to me here. I need to check Almost's reads now. If they had a mutual town read, the need to lynch Almost is smaller for Sakura. Obviously the "lynch for potential power role" thing is still in play.

Vengekill claim: was a gambit but was it necessary? Boon lynch was already picking up steam.

Generally scum teams will space out their buddies on a reads list. Sakura's 3 town reads were myself, almost50, mhsmith. Garmr was null (which is still a common place to put a scum buddy).

Riabi was irrelevant

Main thing we get from Titus is his Dier case. I understand the merit behind it.

Next steps: looking at boons/garmr's reads lists, re-reading why mhs was leaning Titus scum

[ToastyToast]

Still here, still got time so I'm going to make use of it. If I have more questions I will post.

[ToastyToast]

Sorry for making you wait guys! I should have everything I wanted to go over finished tomorrow

[ToastyToast]

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Okay guys, I've read what I needed to. I get the garmr-sakura buddying but I just feel like that would've been a safe read for him to make. IF IM WRONG IM SORRY! I hate being the deciding vote in lylo.

vote:Dierfire

[ToastyToast]

Sorry team! I found Sakura very convincing so props to that, and even though I didn't like Riabi's play, Titus did a good job of building some case

Dier, your wishy-washyness was a contributing factor in my decision, but in hindsight I don't think I scrutinized Titus as much as I should have. I was more biased against you during the last day despite my earlier town read. I did not play my best here but it was still a good chance to get my feet wet since I play sporadically these days.

Good setup by scum team. Still don't completely understand the kill choices but it worked!

mhs, I honestly don't believe you are a newb. You played really brilliantly this game and were definitely town mvp. I think one way you could improve is just by trying to adapt to other players a little more. Namely, although this is LARGELY due to the fact that my real-life schedule went nuts for the latter half of the game, I couldn't always keep up with your posts. Summarizing cases might help out a bit.

[ToastyToast]

also @mhs: betch why you read me so well in the dead thread

@sakura: I dislike town blocks because if one scum gets in them they end up having way too much influence over the game. It is also insufferable to deal with if you aren't part of the town block. As someone who tends to go against the majority because I think it is important to do from a gameplay perspective (it provides more debate over a lynch so the sheepy-type players have less room to hide and end up having more decisions scrutinized, it also forces scum to pick a side), being outside the numbers becomes a reason to lynch someone pretty quickly. The "if you disagree with those I deem town, you're scum" mentality usually results in a town loss.