Mini 1800 - Game Over

[Masquerade]

Oh so you do have something to add then?

[GreyICE]

Species is being replaced

Please welcome Mathblade, who replaces Snork. Thank you wonderful replacements! This game wouldn't be possible without you.

[MathBlade]

Reading now. Any important posts please @Mathblade me.

[GreyICE]

Official Vote Count

karnos

(4): qubixes, MechaGoomba, Persivul, Kappy

Wingback

(3): Mathblade, species, The Bulge

Kappy

(2): Dierfire, Saru

MechaGoomba

(1): karnos

Persivul

(1): Wingback

Not Voting

(2): Masquerade, JohnnyFarrar

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-06-22 16:00:11)

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Unvote while reading

[Dierfire]

@karnos

Persivul in 435 and qubixes in 459 accurately capture where I was going in 393: karnos pushes back against MechaGoomba in a way that feels insincere (more like trying to "return fire" than actually trying to read MechaGoomba). I need a VC and time to finally look at those previously mentioned games of karnos, but this is likely to be my vote shortly.

You and others making the same 'observation': I voted MechaGoomba first. If it's scummy to push back with a vote, then you should be reading him as scum, not me.

My 393 has very little to do with your vote on MechaGoomba (which came later, in 399). Would you like to try again?

[MechaGoomba]

I voted a player who I was currently reading as town

EXACTLY MY POINT!

I think we can reasonably assume that voting someone means that you think they're scum!
What's next, "I only said they were acting scummy, not that I thought they were scum; I actually believed they were town acting scummy the whole time"?
"I said I wanted them to be lynched, but I never said that I actually scumread them; I just didn't want them in the game"?

This is blatant semantics and I will have no part of it. TOWN DO NOT VOTE THEIR TOWNREADS. End of discussion.

[Dierfire]

I see people arguing that the way that karnos treated Persivul is perhaps plausible from a Town perspective. I think that there are other good reasons to be voting karnos. I'll elaborate on that when I finish looking at those previous games (which is happening right now).

[Dierfire]

With regard to the point that I've been pushing, I did dig up a similarly indirect attack with similar wording (underlined) from karnos in a game that he played as Town.

The way you are jumping at his defense

is rather interesting

, given that Ranger was under the same number of lynch votes and you certainly didn't jump out at the person who put her at -2 L. My understanding is that this game doesn't have Masons. There is no way you could know transcend is innocent, yet you are acting as if you are positive he is.

Very odd

.

I still think that this is slightly different from his 382 in this game, and I'm not inclined to give a pass to the behavior, because it feels most like the point is to turn aside criticism by threatening a confrontation (his 396 certainly makes it clear that he thinks it unlikely that MechaGoomba actually revealed knowledge of how many Mafia players we have).

A quick (and admittedly somewhat rushed) read through the games mentioned earlier leaves me believing the argument advanced by qubixes in 372 that karnos is playing this game more carefully and cautiously than those earlier games (in which he was Town). In a few instances (such as his comfort with chasing wagons to L-1 in the game referenced above), this might be a matter of learning, but even then he seems to have taken an odd lesson from it in 56 (someone mentioned this already, but the point is that it's strange for him to be worried about being implicated if someone else drove a quick lynch and he happened to be on the wagon).

I agree with qubixes in 546 and disagree with Masquerade in 542--I can think of reasons why a Mafia player would want to hear more discussion (to buy time to turn the lynch somewhere else, to allow partners to plan night actions) or at least to claim to want to hear more discussion (to appear proactive and therefore Town).

UNVOTE: Kappy
VOTE: karnos

[Dierfire]

@Kappy

I know that you've been busy, but I just remembered while reading that I had another question pending, so I'm consolidating them here.

@Kappy

Saru: It seems like he is voting for me because he doesn't like the content of my posts. I don't really know what to say to this.
Mecha: He just doesn't like 235, since he claims it is all recycled. That may be true, but I was placing my opinion on it, since I hadn't mentioned my opinion before.
Dierfire: He just commented on the weird association between me and Sick. I just want to point out that I scumread Sick, but I have to UNVOTE: for now to give his replacement a chance.
Is that what you want?

I'd like to have you comment on how you're reading the three of us. I gather that you think that all of our reasons for voting you are bad; do you feel that any are false?

Oh, I guess that I could comment on 235 by Kappy.

@Kappy

Your read on Sickofit1138 in 181 sounded much stronger than the evidence that you presented in 235. In particular, you had cited his 134 and 152 when you first changed your read, but when you finally made the longer post your objections seemed to be that 134 was "an excuse" and that 152 is nonsensical. Are you able to further elaborate on why those things made you swing your read so strongly?

I called 134 an excuse in both posts. To clarify, I had said 152 bothered me, and I meant it bothered me for the reason I stated in 235, he seemed to be trying for an extra town lynch. Oh, and also that he mispelled tomorrow.

This one isn't quite an answer to my question. My point is that your stated reasons in 235 do not match the strength of your stated suspicion in 181. Are you able to further elaborate on why those reasons are stronger than I think, or why your read was weaker than I think?

[Dierfire]

I am bad at being online when others are.

I'll be back tomorrow.

[MathBlade]

Just caught up and here are my thoughts:
1) Karnos and Wingback are likely aligned scum or have the same alignment. (Reasoning below)
2) If Karnos and Wingback are aligned, likely the third is in the inactive pile based upon how a lack of a counter wagon has emerged. I want to see how the species slot responds in when replaced but the lack of a counterwagon concerns me. This game feels very odd.
3) I think mostly Persivul v Sick was TvT.


487 to 516 by Wingback is a very odd switch to suddenly town reading Karnos. Karnos's ISO is littered with things I cannot simply imagine a town player doing. For example I have not been in a forum mafia game in a very long time where a player intentionally forgets a read, has a confession time, seemingly multiple times, and has such a defeatist attitude. Town fights. It comes back from being slapped in the face and forces people to make reads and take stances. Karnos feels like a lukewarm player faking passion rather than an actual passionate player to find scum.

Let's break this down further. In 499 he has his confession time which is super scummy. Not only that he says he has given up on "this play" town do not have plays they lynch scum. 504 he then says he is going to withhold reads. Even if you suspect you are going to be lynched as a townie you drop reads, bombshells, something.

517 -- Is almost a backhanded insult/compliment/something. They imply that Karnos is not skilled enough to do it. However there were 0 suggestions that he had done anything of the sort. This makes me think that Wingback knows that Karnos is scum and looking for any reason to save Karnos.


This play is just too weird to be anything but the same alignment IMHO.


Dierfire - I really like Dierfire's 558 and reasoning. It seems spot on. Looks like they are trying to figure out the game and analyze things. Town lean.
The Bulge (replaces Chumba) -- Scum lean -- see more below
Mathblade (replaces Snork) -- Me -- The towniest town to ever town
species -- Scum lean -- see more below
qubixes -- Strong Town lean -- Post 175 -- I think qubixes is spot on with the Persuval v Sick discussion. That feels like TvT ripping each other apart. I don't really understand how that got started anyway. I plan on rereading this tonight and seeing how that got started. The first person on the Karnos list according to VC.
Saru -- Strong Town lean -- Post 326 -- This post screams town to me. They read the argument presented, logically break it down, and reiterate their point in such a way that is clear concise and to the point. Side note: 330 made me laugh like hell. Thank you As the McDonald's theme song goes...ba ba ba ba ba I'm lovin' it.
MechaGoomba -- Null read -- I like how he was towards the front of the Karnos lynch but at the same time this is what scares me. Mecha's posts in an ISO isolated seem fine but when I put them together in context I get the heebie jeebies. If I'm wrong about both Wingback and Karnos being scum together I'll be poking here. Hard. 388 specifically gives me a weird vibe.
JohnnyFarrar (replaces ShadyHood) - Town lean - At first I was reading their posts and like WTF -- They seem really arrogant and brutish at first. Almost something I saw with new scum but then there was a well thought out post that made me go, hey this guy is experienced...Which I looked at my notes and then went waaaaaaaaaaaaaat? Their play throws me for a loop. So I started looking for other posts to try to get an idea and short and choppy and brash seems to be their thing.
Kappy -- Null read --With how the wagon formed on Karnos and not Kappy benefit of the doubt here and they are a null read. I really don't like how they voted Karnos in 192 then hopped back on the wagon later though. 484 with you're welcome rubs me as almost sarcastic like a potential thank you for bussing?
Persivul - Very slight town lean -- Seems like newb town -- I don't like the sheep of Johnny but I do like the short and sweet statement on 406. I get similar mixed vibes from the Persivul v Sick drama but the vote pattern says probably town.
Masquerade (replaces Mizzytastic) -- Town derp -- Masquerade is probably either town derp or scum. I do not see what they are getting at in 542. 510 is one of the scummiest posts in Karnos's list. It is very defeatist. Of course town doesn't want to be lynched but if they are they want to make sure the scum are easy to find. But then Karnos is actively not pushing valid reads, not poking people or asking questions. It's all defense. How Masquerade gets town of of that I do not know AT ALL.
karnos - Very likely scum
Wingback (replaces Sickofit1138) -- I think they are probably scum with Karnos for the reasons above.

I know there's a lot of scum leans up there but they are conditional. Species is a scum read because of limited posts then are now being replaced. 121 seems off. They seemed like they wanted to throw shade on people for their RVS vote. This slot seems very scummy to me and will do so unless they suddenly popup with town play and with town tattooed on their ass for extra insurance.

Masquerade falls into that category of not much to go on. 51 and 20 feel like forced interaction between the two. Something feels off of it and unnatural. Furthermore the Mizzy slot votes Karnos early but that slot vote disappears. 146 furthermore feels wrong. JohnnyFarrar's predecessor made an argument about it and Mizzy was really weird in that. I don't see their logic on it at all. 177 also feels like a coach of Karnos. Coupled with Masquerade not voting what is obv scum in Karnos, they'd be the one I'd pick to fill out the likely third scum.

So overall I think the scum is {Karnos, Wingback, and one of Masquerade and Species} leaning Masquerade because of the Karnos not voting pushes it over. I don't think both could really be it as that'd be 4 scum in a 13P game which seems horribly unbalanced.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Karnos

WARNING KARNOS IS AT L-1

[qubixes]

@Mathblade: hi!

I agree with most of your post and I'm happy Karnos finally makes it to L-1. Probably don't have to say this, but if Karnos claims, don't CC.. However your 1), 2) and 3) are not quite compatible (i.e. one of them is wrong). If Persivul vs sick is TvT, and Karnos and Wing/sick have the same alignment, that means that Karnos is town..

Also, I doubt it is Karnos+Wing+Masq at this point. It would be a rather ballsy plan to double down on defending Karnos without any town support. I think it could be either of the two though, but I will have to reread and think it through.

[qubixes]

Oh so you do have something to add then?

To whom is this addressed? Me? Johnny?

[Wingback]

@Masquerade, I agree that Shady was unimpressive and Johnny hasn't done anything to change my opinion of that slot. In fact, presenting himself as a leader and assuming that he'll be nightkilled doesn't match up with his half-hearted semi-catchup and lack of activity since. A good majority of his catchup contained quotes of other people making cases on Karnos and piggybacking off of them. He doesn't give any of his own reasons and his catchup style of quoting people's posts and either approving or disapproving them doesn't take much thought or effort and is really easy to fake as scum. If someone replaces into the game, it means they have at least some spare time to catch up and Johnny not doing catching up on a short twenty-page game in over three days shows me his heart is really not in it. He doesn't redeem Shady's posts and in fact, it made me more confident that the slot is scum. Would like to understand what you are seeing here. I'm also interested in seeing everyone's comments on my read on Johnny.

Also, Masquerade's entrance re-inforced my townread on Mizzytastic.

@qubixes, I glanced through the towngames that Karnos linked in Post 432 but didn't find anything that I could confidently say that this is the difference between his play as town and scum. The one scumgame he had was multiball which means he was genuinely hunting for the other team which makes it unreliable as meta. From a cursory glance, I noticed that he was pushing back hard on GreyICE in Open 640 as town but that was mostly him reacting to a very aggressive/ruthless push. He's reacted to Mechagoomba in a similar way but overall, I didn't find a smoking gun.

I think the push on him for worrying about being implicated in a mislynch doesn't take into account that while scum might be thinking that, it's very unlikely they would actually say it in thread. I don't want to keep rehashing the same argument as I doubt it'll convince you if it hasn't already. I do want to know if you are willing to compromise on any other player. JohnnyFarrar and Mathblade are good alternatives - explained Johnny above, I'll explain the Mathblade read in my next post.

[qubixes]

@Wingback: We'll have to disagree on Karnos then. When I read his town games, it feels completely different than here to me. Also, you're using the competence argument on Karnos both ways. He is not good enough scum to fake a reaction test, but he is good enough scum to not say he is worried about being implicated. I don't think the difficulty of the two things are vastly different, so please choose.

At this point I'm not willing to compromise, and I don't think there's much that will change my willingness.

[Wingback]

Here are my issues with Mathblade:

Firstly, their view of the gamestate is extremely simplistic. The scum are the biggest wagon and the two people defending the biggest wagon (me and Masquerade) and I at least have already received some blowback for sticking my neck out. Mathblade doesn't consider the possibilities that I could be town and right, or that I could be town and wrong, or that I could be scum defending a town-Masquerade. Obviously, I think I'm right but the way they narrow it down to both of us being the same alignment and adds Masquerade in for good measure looks very crude and not well thought-out.

Secondly, most of their reads are either based on Karnos or just completely arbitrary. The qubixes townread references the post where he voted Karnos (the bit about calling Persivul vs Sickofit TvT doesn't make sense either since Sickofit is my slot). The Dierfire townread was also because of the post where he voted Karnos. The Persivul townread for Post 406 where he simply clarified a post is weak as Persivul made several posts in the game and had a lot of readable content. The Saru read for Post 326 is similarly weak. This supreme confidence in a Karnos scumflip makes very little sense from the POV of a replacement who wasn't involved in the game and never came up with their own original reasoning for pushing Karnos (that's the major difference between how Mizzytastic and qubixes were pushing him and how JohnnyFarrar and Mathblade are piggybacking).

Also, you're using the competence argument on Karnos both ways. He is not good enough scum to fake a reaction test, but he is good enough scum to not say he is worried about being implicated. I don't think the difficulty of the two things are vastly different, so please choose.

I'm saying Karnos is not good enough scum to fake a reaction test while keeping all his actions consistent with that for a prolonged period of time. On the other hand, I doubt even a newbie-scum would blatantly say "I'm worried about how this will make me look."

Who is scum if Masquerade is town?

[Wingback]

That should read "who is scum is

Karnos

is town?"

[Wingback]

@Dierfire, what made you abandon the push on Kappy and vote Karnos? Qubixes's case was there for a very long time. Why did you only now decide to verify Karnos's meta and put down a vote?

More than Dierfire's vote, I'm far more interested in what Mathblade thought was so awesome about Dier's Post 558. "

It seems spot on. Looks like they are trying to figure out the game and analyze things

" is an odd way to describe a post where Dierfire agrees with qubixes and sheeps him.

[Wingback]

VOTE: Mathblade

Could also vote JohnnyFarrar. I'd appreciate everyone's opinion on my scumreads of Mathblade and JohnnyFarrar. I'm scumreading both current occupants of the slots as well as both of their predecessors (Snork and Shadyhood). Heading off to bed so I'll check in tomorrow.

[Masquerade]

Karnos can you post some updated reads?
I have thoughts but no time so will talk about them later today.

[qubixes]

That should read "who is scum is

Karnos

is town?"

If Karnos flips town, I think you or Masquerade would make good partners for somehow knowing he is town. I did have a town read on Mizzy though, so I'd have to check back and see if that makes any sense.

I understand what you're saying, but I still disagree. As I said, I don't think the difficulty of the two things so different.

[qubixes]

(the bit about calling Persivul vs Sickofit TvT doesn't make sense either since Sickofit is my slot).

Btw, I think scum are less likely to get confused about who is who, and who is scum/town. Just some food for thought.

[Wingback]

I'd caution against universally applying tells like that. It's not that Mathblade was

confused

, it's that I suspect them of pushing an agenda:

• Find a reason to townread Qubixes since he's a universal townread anyways. That post where you called my predecessor town was a decent enough one.
  
• Find a reason to tie Wingback and Karnos together since Karnos looks to be the default lynch and Wingback is catching flak for defending him.

I suspect Mathblade is just trying to find things to push without taking care to look through the game at a deeper level and re-read and double-check their facts.

When I entered the game, I took quite a bit of care to check who replaced who so I could develop a compound read on each slot. What each occupant did influenced my read. I think it's less likely that scum would care that much since the reads are fake anyways, and you only need to push an agenda, not develop accurate reads.

Scum can be more careful and self-conscious in some ways but town are more likely to put extra effort into getting accurate reads.