The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)

[mhsmith0]

It's still interesting how flagrantly different rows 2 and 3 are from the rest, with setup A barely balanced as well. I wonder...

Could the RB and cop BOTH change to 2-shot? In setup B, the cop is often ID'd and dead by N3, so the third shot shouldn't really matter. But in setup 2, the cop's shots could last longer (presuming that a blocked check doesn't cost a shot).

And on the mafia side, you start to have a real decision to make whether to use the RB shots early, since JK is pretty OP in a small game (and RB pretty OP as a counter), while the cop is very dangerous to a mafia team if left unblocked early.

PS As discussed on the daytalk thread, I think that subbing UB for BP could help balance things out, since BP is basically useless (other than as a clear claim) on row 3 (since stopping just one shot doens't really mean anything anyway), and low usefulness on column A as well. OTOH subbing in a UB for BP probably means that the RB should NOT be a limited shot role, since then town gets kinda OP on setup A with JK/UB.

[mhsmith0]

Anyone interested in resurrecting the discussion over whether we should replace the 1-shot BP with a universal backup? Stats are pretty clear that the two BP setups (3 and A) have the lowest town win rates by a decent margin, and I suspect it's at least in part because:

1-shot BP claims can't do anything useful after being claimed, and especially after JK/tracker dies
people are policy lynching them because they can't do anything useful and are easy fake claims

If there's interest in getting town's win rate closer to 50%, then I think that boosting 3/A setups is worthwhile, and I'd think that subbing UB for the 1-shot BP is the best way to do it, especially in the tracker setup, where the BP really sticks out as not being useful excepting for a bit of WIFOM on whether or not there's a doc or a BP.

[mhsmith0]

Specifically, current stats, with the two BP setups bolded/enlarged for emphasis:

Setup Town Wins Scum Wins T%
1 (J) 29 33 46.8%
2 (RCD) 36 31 53.7%

3 (BT) 26 39 40.0%
A (JRB) 26 35 42.6%

B (C) 30 31 49.2%
C (DT) 28 35 44.4%
Total 175 204 46.2%

[mhsmith0]

The scum replace out rate for I think all positions is much higher than the town rate. That said, an IC replace out rate of even 10% is incredibly disappointing.

[mhsmith0]

I'd bet that new ics replace out at a MUCH higher rate than experienced ones, so I'd guess it's related to new ics sometimes being approved in batches.