Personality and Popularity in the Speakeasy (A Study!)

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Personality and Popularity in the Speakeasy (A Study!)

Post Post #0 (isolation #0) » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:28 am

Post by Psyche »

So so so!

Image

IBM made this service a while back that "applies linguistic analytics and personality theory to infer attributes from a person's unstructured text". What does that mean? Basically, you can
give
the service a writing sample of about 6000 words (which admittedly is a lot), and it'll
return
a full personality profile of the person who wrote it. Instantly! Before in order to get a personality profile of someone, a dude would have to make them spend 10 minutes or so completing a really boring survey. Now I can profile hundreds of people in just a few seconds with really little effort on their part. Including you!

Why should anyone care? Personality profiles are really powerful; they do a good job of summing a person up. They predict a broad variety of life outcomes - stuff like life expectancy, music preferences, personal relationships, religion. They're really useful for understanding ourselves and understanding others. I don't think there's an area of psychology as rich in information as personality research, and it gets bigger and bigger every day. IBM's profiling service lets us tap into this sort of insight easily and quickly. This thread is about finding as many cool ways as possible to do just that.

Still, I'm starting off with a few more specific objectives that should be of interest to the community.
I can give you insight into who you are! I can tell you how to be popular! Stuff like that. They are laid out over the next few posts.

CONTENTS

individual personality profiles (ask for yours!)
a study on popularity and personality in the speakeasy
outline of plans for beyond
a more detailed note about interpreting results
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Post Post #1 (isolation #1) » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:28 am

Post by Psyche »

YOUR INDIVIDUAL PERSONALITY PROFILE


Ask and depending on your call I'll either post here (default) or pm you an individual personality profile just for you. This explains some how to interpret your results. Ask questions if you still don't get it!

The demo I linked to at the start of the thread might suffice for you, and it'll give you this spiel about your personality that I won't. Still, there are a few reasons you might wanna use me. First, 6000 words is a lot! For reference, I recently wrote a 35 page paper as part of a capstone project for my school. My 6000th word in that paper happened on page 22. Finding 6000 of your own words that aren't part of some academic paper or your personal fanfiction archive can be difficult. I've made a program that automatically extracts the 6000 most recent words you've posted here on the forum and makes a profile from that so that you don't have to worry. Why, I might have already generated a profile just for you (and for me). Maybe more importantly, though, a profile from me might be more informative than what you'll get using the demo. I can tell how you compare to other people on this forum. For example, Drench scored higher on Cautiousness and Trust than anyone else in the recent SUPP. I can't make this stuff up. I can also offer you sampling errors for your traits and maybe some other things.

So, uh, why not?

The public profiles I've made so far are here.
You all get your own personal figures outlining your traits as measured by the service.
This is a major update, so maybe check the folder again if you haven't in a while!
If you scroll around you'll see also present a spreadsheet containing every consented person's average scores as well as their scores ranked relative to everyone else in the community profiled so far.

Still need to profile…
egg
postie
mcmenno
Errantparabola
quilford
???

If your profile isn't present and you're not listed here I've forgotten about you.
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Post Post #2 (isolation #2) » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:28 am

Post by Psyche »

POPULARITY AND PERSONALITY IN THE SPEAKEASY

I did an informal study comparing popularity within our community with the different personality traits that IBM's service measures.

The objective.
The broad question I'm asking is "What makes someone in a community popular?" It can't be fully answered here, but let's keep our eyes on that. Beyond that, though, I've asked more particular questions: What kind of personality does our community have overall? Which traits relate with popularity/unpopularity? How is popularity and personality distributed within our community? Does the distribution of these variables have anything to do with how they relate with one another? Hopefully some of these questions interest some of you. (Cuz, like, I did a lot of work.)

Where the data came from.
The recent Speakeasy User Popularity Poll (SUPP) gave me data on different users' popularity here. 146 people were evaluated by 92 people on a scale from 0-10 (0 is "I absolutely LOATHE this user!"; 10 is "I absolutely ADORE this user!") and participants were later ranked by their average score. The standard deviations of these means were reported, too, along with the number of 0s and 10s each user was given. To measure personality traits, I obtained the 6000 most recent words that each evaluated person has made on the site and put them through the service. This partially explains why I made this decision, but please understand that my main reason is that it was really convenient. Anyway, the service returned for each SUPPicipant over 50 different measurements based on these writing samples.

A composite profile.
Let's start with the big picture. I took everyone's personality profiles and averaged their percentile scores. The result is a measure of which traits are prominent in our community relative to the general population. Since these are percentiles, the line at .50 refers to the average 'trait score' in the general population. So according to IBM the generated profiles were high in Depression and Anger and low in Self-discipline and Artistic interests relative to the typical profile. A one-sample t-test (mu=.5) comparing the Speakeasy and general profiles found p-values below .05 for every trait measured except for Excitement, Emotionality and Hedonism. I'll leave discussion of these and other results to the thread. Find the full figure here. This figure is like the other figure except it's about the standard deviation of traits rather than their actual scores. Spread matters, too, right? Get some help interpreting the "meaning" of each trait here.

Correlations with popularity.
Now, the easiest question we can ask with our personality and popularity data is how each trait relates with popularity here in our community. I computed the correlation of every trait with the SUPP's rankings, average scores, counts of 0s and counts of 10s. Furthermore, each correlation was t-tested for significance. In my produced figures a horizontal green line indicates significance: traits outside of the rectangle outlined by the dotted lines (ie either above or below) correlated significantly with the popularity measure, p<.05. So for example Conscientiousness and Depression correlates significantly with average scores but not Practicality or Curiosity. If I were you I'd focus on the average scores chart because the rankings one is shamefully misleading. Get some help interpreting the "meaning" of each trait here.

Distinctiveness versus representativeness.
Let's get a little abstract. If one wants, one can pose two competing hypotheses about how popularity happens. The
representativeness hypothesis
is that popular people are representative of their communities. Some of their traits might stand out, but overall they fit in and work as exemplars of their communities. The
distinctiveness hypothesis
is that popular people are distinctive within their communities. They might have some typical characteristics, but overall they stand out and aren't typical. It's also possible, of course, that there's no strong relationship in either direction between popularity and representativeness/distinctiveness.

If you've been paying attention to these charts as much as I have, then you might have noticed something peculiar. The very same traits that are overrepresented in our community, such as Depression and Anger, are also the ones that correlate most negatively with popularity. The opposite is true, too - artsiness for example is (apparently) rare in SUPPicipants but also a great predictor of popularity. I did the analysis, and at least in the Speakeasy, the distinctiveness hypothesis seems to
strongly
win out. As this figure illustrates, trait prevalence has a -.7782 correlation with trait popularity (p = 1.122e-11). For reference, the strongest correlation I found between a single trait and popularity was a little over .3.

Unless I did something wrong, what this means is that the popular people in our community are also the most distinctive people in our community; they have traits that happen to be rare in our neck of the woods. This is probably the most important as well as the strongest finding of my study. But maybe I did something wrong.

And that's that for now.
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Post Post #3 (isolation #3) » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:28 am

Post by Psyche »

I have more plans for the future, too! These include…

Group profiles.
I will be reporting early a composite profile of participants in the SUPP, but in the future I will probably try to sum up other subsets of the community as well. It'll be easier then to ask more interesting questions about how personality relates with people's place in this community. For example, skittles might be more conscientious than the broader community, even before they become skittles.

Scumhunting.
I might be able to repurpose the service such that instead of measuring someone's stable personality traits it measures aspects of the particular situation in which data for the profile was produced. In other words, I want to compare profiles of people while they're Mafia with profiles of people while they're Town. There are a lot of ways to do this, and I'm gonna try all of them eventually and see what comes up.

Prediction.
The analyses I'm doing can be tweaked to make it possible to produce probabilities for future outcomes rather than just describe what's already happened. For example, when the SUPP starts next year I can guess from the patterns I found this year who will do well next year. Similarly, I'll eventually need prediction if I want to use the service to scumhunt. But I'll have to sharpen my stats skills in order to do that.

Messing with people.
Once I read up more on the personality psychology literature, I should be able to outline strategies/tactics for goal-oriented interactions with other people depending on their profiles. That's not just good for trolling. In a mafia game, personality profiles might predict whether someone will flail under pressure or can be duped through buddying. The literature might motivate hypotheses like these, but actually testing them requires manual scanning through threads that seems sort of tedious to a guy like me.

You!
A lot of you are really creative and smart people. I bet you'll have better ideas for Beyond than me. I want to field your questions and ideas here in this thread. But beyond that, though, I want even the programming novices among you to know and believe that this stuff I'm doing is easy - even if it IS time-consuming. If I can keep up the time/energy, I'm gonna create guides, apps, packages, whatever that outlines just how straightforward this stuff is so that you can do studies or whatever, too. Also, if any of you wanna team up and work together on this stuff, I'd be...surprised?

Ok now that's really that.
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Post Post #4 (isolation #4) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 11:39 am

Post by Psyche »

Open for business.
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Post Post #5 (isolation #5) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:30 pm

Post by Psyche »

Psyche (19:29)
so yeah don't think of the results as something set in stone; a black box processed only the last 6000 words you wrote on this forum to produce these profiles and might be biased in ways that are hard to predict
Psyche (19:29)
my group level measures like the site profile and the distinctiveness-theory findings are probably more meaningful
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Post Post #8 (isolation #6) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:53 pm

Post by Psyche »

for my study purposes it doesn't have to be perfect
it just has to perform sufficiently above chance level
ibm's work on the service has found correlations greater than .5 with more well-established personality assessment materials so i feel okay about it, though i do realize that the source data for each profile (the 6000 most recent posts a user's made) might have quirks that mess with results
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Post Post #10 (isolation #7) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 1:06 pm

Post by Psyche »

the spreadsheet i've been using for public profiles definitely sucks when trying to scrutinize specific people
that means instead you're all getting your own personal figure that outlines your traits just like some of my figures do
when they're ready each figure will sit in the same folder you guys use now
yay...
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Post Post #34 (isolation #8) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 9:54 pm

Post by Psyche »

The graph below relates a trait's "skew of representation" within our community with its popularity. When skew of representation is near 0, that means the trait's representation in our community is close to its representation in the general population. When skew of representation is near .5, then the trait is either overrepresented or underrepresented in our community. What we found is that when a trait's representation isn't skewed in the community, it doesn't contribute much to popularity. When representation is skewed, it does contribute to popularity. (Correlation was .293 with p=.035).

Image

I made this graph because I thought it spoke to Mina's question, but it doesn't so I'm throwing it out without throwing it out. What we really want is a measure of every single user's (
not
every single trait's) "averageness" relative to the general population related with every single user's popularity. Let's do that.
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Post Post #35 (isolation #9) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:30 pm

Post by Psyche »

a more detailed note about interpreting results:

one thing to keep in mind is that it means to score high or low in a trait according to the service
for example self-expression as measured by the service is part of its
Needs
model
when it scores you high in self-expression it's not saying you express yourself a lot
it's saying that you "Enjoy discovering and asserting your own identities."
which is different from what one might expect
on my individual profiles post i included a link to a page that will help you interpret the meaning of the different traits the service has measured for you;
maybe skim it if you're interested


but the most important thing is that the service's measures aren't
that
strongly correlated with the scores you'd get on a more rigorous personality test
IBM conducted a validation study to understand the effect of media on inferred characteristics. To determine the accuracy of the service's approach to estimating characteristics, IBM compared scores that were derived by its models with survey-based scores for Twitter users (for instance, approximately 500 users for English and more than 600 for Spanish).
To establish ground truth, participants took three sets of standard psychometric tests: 50-item Big Five (derived from the International Personality Item Pool, or IPIP), 52-item fundamental Needs (developed by IBM), and 26-item basic Values (developed by Schwartz). IBM conducted the study in two phases:
For the first study, conducted in 2013, IBM recruited 256 Twitter users (Gou et al., 2014). Although the models were learned from different sources, IBM found that for more than 80 percent of the Twitter users, scores for characteristics that were inferred for all three models correlated significantly with survey-based scores (p-value < 0.05 and correlation coefficient between 0.05 and 0.80). Specifically, scores that were derived by the service correlated with survey-based scores as follows:
For 80.8 percent of participants' Big Five scores (p-value < 0.05 and correlation coefficients between 0.05 and 0.75)
For 86.6 percent of participants' Needs scores (p-value < 0.05 and correlation coefficient between 0.05 and 0.80)
For 98.21 percent of participants' Values scores (p-value < 0.05 and correlation coefficients between 0.05 and 0.55)
For the second study, conducted in 2015, IBM recruited another set of 237 Twitter users. The study found that for Big Five and Values, scores for inferred characteristics correlated significantly with survey-based scores (p-value < 0.05 and correlation coefficient between 0.07 and 0.21) for every Twitter user. For needs, such significant correlation was observed for 90 percent of the users (p value < 0.05 and correlation coefficient between 0.01 and 0.20).
In both studies, participants also rated on a five-point scale how well each derived characteristic matched their perceptions of themselves. Their ratings suggest that the inferred characteristics largely matched their self-perceptions. Specifically, means of all ratings were above 3 ("somewhat") out of 5 ("perfect").
For the 256 Twitter users of the first study, means were 3.4 (with a standard deviation of 1.14) for Big Five, 3.39 (with a standard deviation of 1.34) for Needs, and 3.13 (with a standard deviation of 1.17) for Values.
For the 237 Twitter users of the second study, means were 3.31 (with a standard deviation of 1.18) for Big Five, 3.37 (with a standard deviation of 1.22) for Needs, and 3.36 (with a standard deviation of 1.18) for Values.
While the correlation between inferred and survey-based scores of approximately 80 percent is both positive and significant, the results imply that inferred scores might not always correlate with survey-based results. Researchers from outside of IBM have also done experiments to compare how well inferred scores match those obtained from surveys, and none reported a fully consistent match:
Golbeck et al. (2011) reported an error rate of 10 to 18 percent when matching inferred scores with survey-based scores.
Sumner et al. (2012) reported approximately 65-percent accuracy for personality prediction.
Mairesse and Walker (2006) reported 60- to 70-percent accuracy for Big Five personality prediction.
In general, it is widely accepted in research literature that self-reported scores from personality surveys do not always fully match scores that are inferred from text. What is more important, however, is that IBM found that characteristics inferred from text can reliably predict a variety of real-world behavior.
The key information from this quote is that even while the service does a decisively better job than random at profiling people, it's not the gold standard. Further, a little under half of people are less than even somewhat satisfied with their measured characteristics in the survey. So, yeah. If you really want to know your personality profile, you'll probably want to take a test. Still, I think there's a lot of reason to be excited about the service and its usefulness for research projects like these.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #10) » Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:43 pm

Post by Psyche »

In post 9, Cheery Dog wrote:I can have data?
can you be clearer about what you're asking here?
In post 17, SleepyKrew wrote:where are the results
guess i'll make a quick table of contents in the op
In post 30, Mina wrote:Wow, Psyche, this is an incredible amount of work. Thank you for putting all that thought and effort into your analysis. This was far more than I was expecting. TBH, I'm a bit sceptical of the IBM test; there are probably some markers in individuals' posting styles or in the threads that they usually participate in that trip up the algorithm--for example, there's probably something causing Drench to rank near the top in so many traits and N to rank at the bottom (maybe N's Normal queue posts that consist of lists of made-up words confuse the program). But like you said, overall averages, and that graph of distinctiveness vs. popularity is really compelling.
most recent post covers this, but i'm gonna try to more carefully grapple with these issues in future studies and make a FAQ for people in this one
Okay.
While looking at the results, I thought of a hypothesis that might be completely wrong because I'm not very statistically literate, so I apologize in advance if the actual scientists laugh at me for this. Couldn't the correlation between distinctiveness and popularity be partially caused by certain traits having such a skewed average on MS that outliers are
representative
rather than distinctive? For example, if the site average in a trait like Depression is 0.9, then someone who has a score of 0.5 would be "distinctive" even if that person is typical for the general population. Likewise, someone with an artsiness of 0.5 would appear unusually artsy compared to an average of 0.1.

The pattern that jumped out at me from the completely unscientific process of skimming results for my scores was that the distinctiveness vs. popularity correlation is strongest for traits like depression/artsiness that seem.to have lopsided MS averages rather than those hovering around 0.4-0.6. So if the average score for every trait is 0.5, it's possible that we're actually biased towards representative people...only these people are representative of the entire world rather than the subset of the world that posts on mafiascum.net. :P

Could you plot popularity vs. the distinctiveness of a trait relative to the general population rather than to MS's community? (E.g., find the difference of a user's trait from 0.5 instead of from the MS average.) I'm curious to see how the two graphs compare.
Thanks. You've really given me a strategy for further research on this.

Let's focus on your particular recommendation. I focused on the popularity of traits, but I definitely want to pay attention to users. You posed one way to do this. We relate each user's popularity score with each user's deviation from the general population's average score (.5 on everything!). The low end of the spectrum consists of users who are really representative of the general population, and the high end is users who are really distinctive within the population. There are so so so many other ways to calculate distinctiveness compared to the general population, for sure (and man is that annoying), but that's one of them.

Another things I'll do compare that chart with what
my
interpretation actually hypothesizes - that the most distinctive people in their communities are the most popular. So far I've only concluded that distinctive traits make people popular, which is similar and suggests the broader distinctiveness hypothesis, but isn't the same thing.

If I somehow don't confirm that result, that'll be sort of amazing. It'll mean that people somehow compensate for their distinctive traits with traits that are ordinary, or something similar to that.

I feel like there's lurking somewhere a grave mistake I've made interpreting what I've collected. This'll help clear things up.

So I'll get to that shortly.
In post 31, Brandi wrote:Other factors that might be hard to gauge that could affect how liked or disliked someone is is how many scummers they've met in person, when the last meet was and how recently they posted and such.

Quadz was #1 the first time but now he's been very very busy being an awesome dad so he hasn't had much interactions on here this year, I noticed he scored a lot lower. But I don't think people like him less, he's just not fresh in many people's minds.
for sure! personality definitely isn't the only factor behind people's popularity
now that i think of it would be cool to do an analysis of recent contests too, shifting the selection of text I profile back the requisite years too!
would also give me a spot to test prediction code

when I first heard of psychology, i imagined that by mastering the field i would acquire some set of skills that might distinguish me from normal people. i'd be able to tell what others were thinking, quickly discern their personalities, even manipulate them with simple strategies or fix their problems. besides that, i'd know myself - how my thoughts work, the key to my own happiness or sadness, the quickest way for me to learn or even become an expert at something. the kid version of me thought that studying psychology was a way to get real-life superpowers! And that was cool to think about.

if i could actually predict the outcomes of future popularity contests with this service...
well it'd be something kid-me could respect a little i guess

...

All of the updates I'll make before my next post:

Table of contents
Better individual profiles (you get a figure you get a figure everyone gets a figure; new measure: how "distinctive" are you?; instead of reporting your ranking relative to everyone else, i'll report your percentile)
More people profiled
More distinctiveness vs representativeness research (Mina's Track)

gonna race to finish by noon

once the dust settles i think i will follow the track suggested by brandi
examining (and 'predicting' the results of) contests past
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Post Post #37 (isolation #11) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:56 am

Post by Psyche »

just realized the thing mina asked me to calculate for each individual is basically though not quite the standard deviation
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Post Post #39 (isolation #12) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:33 am

Post by Psyche »

nvm n
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Post Post #41 (isolation #13) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:38 am

Post by Psyche »

another idea:
if i reverse score the unpopular traits (ie take 1-DepressionScore to get ~Depression) i can generate for every user a single, one-dimensional value measuring how "likeable" their personalities are (in the Speakeasy)

seems like a stretch of interpretation to do that but the transformation should make a lot of analysis easier anyway
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Post Post #53 (isolation #14) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:18 am

Post by Psyche »

and just as a note the trait isn't actually measuring intelligence or whatever;
it's a measure of 'intellectual curiosity'

to score low is to "prefer dealing with the world as it is, rarely considering abstract ideas"
to score high is to be "open to and intrigued by new ideas and love to explore them"
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Post Post #56 (isolation #15) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:23 am

Post by Psyche »

probably
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Post Post #60 (isolation #16) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:55 am

Post by Psyche »

at least u rank #1 in bein you :]
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Post Post #64 (isolation #17) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:30 am

Post by Psyche »

not just the speakeasy
but i didn't really think of that and would have excluded speakeasy posts if i had
i don't think anyone will ever read much less understand the data i sent to IBM
but i suppose i can't be sure
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Post Post #70 (isolation #18) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 10:54 am

Post by Psyche »

im sry...
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Post Post #83 (isolation #19) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:51 am

Post by Psyche »

Ok how about this. Until we work this out, I won't make any more profiles using speakeasy posts. Even people who've agreed to be profiled won't have their speakeasy posts included just in case other people's sensitive info are in those posts. Therefore IBM will never be sent any more Speakeasy posts again.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #20) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:56 am

Post by Psyche »

Everyone who was in SUPP though have already been profiled, though, so their profiles (released publicly only if they consent) will still include Speakeasy posts. Not sharing those Speakeasy-sampled profiles won't undo the information I've sent to IBM, so this exception seems okay. Future profiles that I make submissions to IBM for, though, (like McMenno's or Postie's) will only include public posts. Sorry again for my mistake.
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Post Post #87 (isolation #21) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:59 am

Post by Psyche »

It's possible some of your Speakeasy posts discuss things about
other
users that they wouldn't like sent to IBM. Not using speakeasy posts anymore doesn't really hurt me much going forward, so this isn't much of a handicap.
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Post Post #90 (isolation #22) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:22 pm

Post by Psyche »

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/nqvmeq276t5w ... vJdIa?dl=0

im using dropbox because it's better
the profiles are better, too, right?
maybe i should have ranked the traits by something different from their magnitude
makes it hard to compare with other people
of course i'm planning to add individual ranks to the spreadsheets too
and the spreadsheets are still there...

everyone who was in SUPP and consented is there now!
i made it a lot easier to do these things thanks to dropbox (no more uploading!)
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Post Post #94 (isolation #23) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:58 pm

Post by Psyche »

maybe my profiles would be easier to understand if i formatted them like that...
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Post Post #95 (isolation #24) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Post by Psyche »

I'm not sure what the profiler is getting at with its weird underprediction of artistic interests but whatever they're doing predicts popularity so i'm happy i guess

also clearly test/retest is as weak as expected...
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Post Post #97 (isolation #25) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:03 pm

Post by Psyche »

yup yup
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Post Post #98 (isolation #26) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:05 pm

Post by Psyche »

some vectors to be added to the public folder:
how "distinctive" are you?
how "likeable" are you?
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Post Post #102 (isolation #27) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:30 pm

Post by Psyche »

i wasnt in the supp
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Post Post #106 (isolation #28) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:14 pm

Post by Psyche »

a friend suggested the relationship between prevalence in the community and popularity as far as traits go is an artifact of
1) that certain traits like Depression are "objectively worse" than others like Morality
2) internet forums like ours are cesspools of bad traits
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Post Post #115 (isolation #29) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:05 pm

Post by Psyche »

In post 111, Mina wrote:Something we're discussing in the site chat: did your scraper remove quotes from people's posts?
yeah
any formatted words weren't included actually
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Post Post #119 (isolation #30) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:33 pm

Post by Psyche »

just let it go davsto
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Post Post #120 (isolation #31) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:46 pm

Post by Psyche »

In post 103, Cephrir wrote:
In post 90, Psyche wrote:everyone who was in SUPP and consented is there now!
??
sorry there was a bug in my code
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Post Post #122 (isolation #32) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:03 pm

Post by Psyche »

already prepping for the next contest i see

everyone who asked on this page should have a profile now

all of my figures will now be in the public folder as well, and i need to make sure the OP indicates that i spose
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Post Post #123 (isolation #33) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 7:18 pm

Post by Psyche »

i'd like to find something that explains to me why standard deviation might increase with the mean
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Post Post #125 (isolation #34) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 9:53 pm

Post by Psyche »

so i reverse scored every unpopular trait
to reverse score a trait is just to compute 1-thatscore
my measure of depression becomes a measure of contentedness, and so forth

and i've found all sorts of neat things by reanalyzing things

for example, only about 10 of the 50+ traits are overrepresented in the community (compared to about half before); not even one of those overrepresented traits
significantly
correlates with popularity
all of this just confirms again that the rare traits in community are the popular ones

These 18 traits are significantly with popularity (! before a trait just indicates that it's been reverse-scored; read it as "not <Trait>"):
[1] Trust Artistic.interests Cooperation Conscientiousness ! Depression
[6] Morality Achievement.striving Cautiousness Self.discipline ! Anger
[11] Modesty ! Excitement.seeking ! Assertiveness Dutifulness Self.expression
[16] Self.efficacy ! Neuroticism Adventurousness

trait underrepresentation in the community still correlated with trait popularity (though more weakly; r = -.55, p = 1.837e-05)...

as expected i haven't found anything contrary to what i already know here
but this reverse scoring should help a bit grappling with Mina's question

also there will be a spreadsheet in the public folder before you know it that tries to assess how likeable everyone is...
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Post Post #126 (isolation #35) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:29 pm

Post by Psyche »

made the likeability spreadsheet
it's a mean of individuals' traits weighted according to how much each correlates with popularity (and unpopular traits reverse-scored)

tbh i'm not sure what any of it means
a lot of highly ranked people were found to have low likeability by my and IBM's measure
while a lot of lowly ranked people were found to have the opposite
overall the likeability score correlates positively with popularity (r = .28, p = 0.0006165)

that's moderate; it's not nothing; it would make a nomoral psychologist proud
but it's also not the .7 (or maybe just .5?) i found between trait underrepresentation and trait popularity
why, if i calculated likeability using each individual's Trust alone, I'd have a better prediction of popularity (r > .3)

so either having some popular traits makes one likely to have unpopular traits or something, or i'm just not putting the information together in the right way
i'll want to try some more formal methods to handle this problem

in the mean time i really should get to finishing mina's request
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Post Post #128 (isolation #36) » Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:43 pm

Post by Psyche »

In post 106, Psyche wrote:a friend suggested the relationship between prevalence in the community and popularity as far as traits go is an artifact of
1) that certain traits like Depression are "objectively worse" than others like Morality
2) internet forums like ours are cesspools of bad traits
i tried to apply reverse-scoring to this issue
Depression might seem "objectively bad", so ~Depression (the reverse scoring of that trait) probably seems great

this just enables a reorganization of her argument

originally, the idea was more two-dimensional than i let on

my friend's argument was that what really makes a trait popular is how "good" it is;
conscientiousness is good and depression is bad, for example, according to this logic
if one accepts this hypothesis, then my observation that popular traits are underrepresented in our community is the same as the observation that our community is a bad one - rich in bad traits and lacking in good traits
scary stuff

by reverse-scoring bad traits i take badness out of the equation in a sense
but even when i do this i observe that "good" traits are underrepresented in our community and the cesspool hypothesis continues to live

it's even more obvious now than before that i won't be able to crack this puzzle without performing this same study in other communities
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Post Post #130 (isolation #37) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:40 am

Post by Psyche »

not until it's better

Image

this combines my composite personality profile graph with my trait prevalence vs trait popularity graph
instead of ordering traits by average score, i ordered by correlation with probability
and finally i overlayed a line of best fit relating average score with the rank of a trait's popularity correlation

overrepresented traits generally occur near the bottom (least popular)
and underrepresented traits generally occur near the top (most popular)

mina's, my friend's, and my hypotheses all seem to explain this relationship and can't really be adjudicated without further research in other communities
besides sharing the graphs she requested, i'm probably done thinking about this issue for now

i'm going to focus on prediction and producing better likeability scores from here out
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Post Post #131 (isolation #38) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:42 am

Post by Psyche »

multiple regression is extremely easu using r i really should have done it near the very beginning of my data analysis
i think in general out of laziness of a lack of imagination i've stuck too closely to basic linear analyses when there's a lot more really cool statistics i can try out
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Post Post #135 (isolation #39) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 3:26 am

Post by Psyche »

deasvail was robbed
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Post Post #136 (isolation #40) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 4:22 am

Post by Psyche »

In post 126, Psyche wrote:made the likeability spreadsheet
it's a mean of individuals' traits weighted according to how much each correlates with popularity (and unpopular traits reverse-scored)

tbh i'm not sure what any of it means
a lot of highly ranked people were found to have low likeability by my and IBM's measure
while a lot of lowly ranked people were found to have the opposite
overall the likeability score correlates positively with popularity (r = .28, p = 0.0006165)

that's moderate; it's not nothing; it would make a nomoral psychologist proud
but it's also not the .7 (or maybe just .5?) i found between trait underrepresentation and trait popularity
why, if i calculated likeability using each individual's Trust alone, I'd have a better prediction of popularity (r > .3)

so either having some popular traits makes one likely to have unpopular traits or something, or i'm just not putting the information together in the right way
i'll want to try some more formal methods to handle this problem
using multiple regression i was able to make it to .5, which is pretty respectable!
at some point i'll see if these results can predict the results of other popularity contests with sufficient reliability. And of course there's future contests, too.

But, uh, I'm starting to feel fatigue about all this and so may take a day or two's break from this project.
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Post Post #156 (isolation #41) » Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:17 am

Post by Psyche »

uh
supposedly,
high percentiles mean higher scores
the closer to 1 your rank is the higher your score is
will have to look closer at ether's sheet
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Post Post #174 (isolation #42) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:43 am

Post by Psyche »

the "Depression" trait actually stands more for "moodiness"
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Post Post #177 (isolation #43) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:10 am

Post by Psyche »

i should have kept my thinking in one place and my explaining in another
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Post Post #180 (isolation #44) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:42 am

Post by Psyche »

i thought the correlations were only good for extraversion?
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Post Post #186 (isolation #45) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:43 am

Post by Psyche »

so i actually told my professor about this and he suggested factor analysis
he also said this stuff was publishable (though not in a journal of psychology) but maybe he wouldn't have if he knew all the ethical issues surrounding how i got my data hahahahahaha
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Post Post #192 (isolation #46) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:59 pm

Post by Psyche »

DOES NO ONE CLICK THE TRAIT INTERPRETATION LINK I HELPFULLY INCLUDED NEAR THE LINK TO THEIR PROFILES???
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Post Post #194 (isolation #47) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:57 pm

Post by Psyche »

i get it i made the post too long
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Post Post #196 (isolation #48) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:19 pm

Post by Psyche »

the first time i brought this idea up to my professor he sort of blew me off
even though i knew that didn't matter, that he was much more supportive this time has put a bit of fire in my eyes
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Post Post #199 (isolation #49) » Wed Jun 29, 2016 7:33 pm

Post by Psyche »

i got overwatch guys this thread is basically over
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Post Post #205 (isolation #50) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:26 am

Post by Psyche »

a postdoc: "oh so not only do they hate themselves, they hate people
like
themselves"
so meeeeeean
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Post Post #207 (isolation #51) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:01 am

Post by Psyche »

i wouldn't really be able to explore that without knowing who rated whom what
then i'd be able to see if there were a positive or negative relationship between popularity and personality similarity
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Post Post #209 (isolation #52) » Thu Jun 30, 2016 9:18 am

Post by Psyche »

wouldn't that be multiple regression
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Post Post #211 (isolation #53) » Fri Jul 01, 2016 4:42 am

Post by Psyche »

The Big Five personality traits are often used to measure change in personality. There is a mean-level change in the Big Five traits from age 10 to 65.[8] The trends seen in adulthood are different from trends seen in childhood and adolescence. Some research suggests that during adolescence rank-order change does occur and therefore personality is highly unstable.[9] Gender differences are also shown before adulthood.[8] Conscientiousness drops from late childhood to adolescence, but then picks back up from adolescence into adulthood. Agreeableness also drops from late childhood to adolescence, but then picks back up from adolescence into adulthood. Neuroticism shows a different trend for males and females in childhood and adolescence. For females, Neuroticism increases from childhood to adolescence. Then Neuroticism levels from adolescence into adulthood and continues the adult trend of decreasing. Males however, tend to gradually decrease in Neuroticism from childhood to adolescence into adulthood. Extraversion drops from childhood to adolescence and then does not really change that much. Openness to experience also shows a different trend for different genders. Females tend to decrease in Openness to experience from childhood to early adulthood and then gradually increases all throughout adulthood. Males tend to decrease in Openness to experience from childhood to adolescence, then it tends to increase through adulthood. In adulthood, Neuroticism tends to decrease, while Conscientiousness and Agreeableness tend to increase. Extraversion and Openness to experience do not seem to change much during adulthood. These trends seen in adulthood are different from trends seen in childhood and adolescence.[8] Cross-cultural research shows that German, British, Czech, and Turkish people show similar trends of these personality traits.[10]

The Big Five personality traits can also be broken down into facets. Different facets of each personality trait are often correlated with different behavioral outcomes. Breaking down the personality traits into facets is difficult and not yet at a consensus. However, it is important to look at change in facets over a lifetime separate from just the change in traits because different facets of the same trait show different trends.[8] Neuroticism can be broken into the two facets of anxiety and depression. Anxiety has the same trend as Neuroticism for both males and females. For females, anxiety increases from childhood to adolescence, at emerging adulthood it levels out, and then starts to decrease into and throughout middle age. Anxiety in males tends to decrease from late childhood through adulthood. Depression (not clinical depression, but rather susceptibility to negative affect) shows two peaks in females. Females tend to have higher levels of this kind of depression in adolescence and then again in early adulthood. Depression does, however, have a negative trend through adulthood. For males, depression tends to show an increase from childhood to early adulthood and then shows a slight decrease through middle age.[8]
some stuff about how traits change over lifetimes
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Post Post #218 (isolation #54) » Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:39 am

Post by Psyche »

*attempts to put through personality profiler*
*machine wonders why you made a blank post*
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Post Post #221 (isolation #55) » Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:05 am

Post by Psyche »

One more update of things to do before I probably let this thread die:
- Unfinished profiles
- Mina's question
- Multiple regression results
- Factor analysis results
- Updating opening posts to reflect new findings
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Post Post #224 (isolation #56) » Fri Jul 29, 2016 10:24 am

Post by Psyche »

its hard to get moving again but i will
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Post Post #226 (isolation #57) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:34 pm

Post by Psyche »

hm there's more data now/soon maybe i can return to this as a smarter person
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Post Post #228 (isolation #58) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Psyche »

no mcmenno necroposted but maybe it'll come back in a way
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Post Post #230 (isolation #59) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:51 pm

Post by Psyche »

workin on it
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Post Post #231 (isolation #60) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:07 pm

Post by Psyche »

https://colab.research.google.com/drive ... xMode=true

Here! This is a simple, easy to use tool you can use from your Google account to generate a personality profile for yourself. Let me know if you have any questions.
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Post Post #233 (isolation #61) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:22 pm

Post by Psyche »

it's right there
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Post Post #235 (isolation #62) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:55 pm

Post by Psyche »

Some new resources for interpreting your scores (the Big 5 ones anyway):
https://watson-developer-cloud.github.i ... istics.pdf
https://watson-developer-cloud.github.i ... istics.pdf
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Post Post #237 (isolation #63) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:59 pm

Post by Psyche »

if you used any text formatting as a mod those posts shouldn't count but ill edit it to allow that option
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Post Post #239 (isolation #64) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:11 pm

Post by Psyche »

yeah ive trouble with that too; can't find an easy way to just output an jpeg from this js object
maybe i'll just add some text output

EDIT: nailed it
Spoiler:
Big Five

Openness
Adventurousness - 0.6776036609434207
Artistic interests - 0.50201943089662
Emotionality - 0.11379884928967315
Imagination - 0.6106800718367892
Intellect - 0.9953312530177361
Authority-challenging - 0.9757777965554945

Conscientiousness
Achievement striving - 0.3670929088864875
Cautiousness - 0.7810439759745602
Dutifulness - 0.4945354668590454
Orderliness - 0.14220228641175314
Self-discipline - 0.11052595159496731
Self-efficacy - 0.23232493793020026

Extraversion
Activity level - 0.41705643644245466
Assertiveness - 0.3862814391090885
Cheerfulness - 0.0011962839476520881
Excitement-seeking - 0.07416521179256685
Outgoing - 0.002915858649214398
Gregariousness - 0.0015855764675423156

Agreeableness
Altruism - 0.2579098392610544
Cooperation - 0.6893237641090542
Modesty - 0.4569941070727232
Uncompromising - 0.7672169753438149
Sympathy - 0.43627577803783024
Trust - 0.46094851074787396

Emotional range
Fiery - 0.39705109771955843
Prone to worry - 0.3147638484557963
Melancholy - 0.8973198466934242
Immoderation - 0.5857139984681089
Self-consciousness - 0.9663698484314494
Susceptible to stress - 0.6270612575465426

Values

Conservation - 0.0015555783451262628
Openness to change - 0.3638949619726605
Hedonism - 0.05039518974258461
Self-enhancement - 0.07867588594864289
Self-transcendence - 0.20115825642909502

Needs

Challenge - 0.37097531944538936
Closeness - 0.0038241065076090597
Curiosity - 0.8925238189323335
Excitement - 0.11510986903345749
Harmony - 0.009253738388417587
Ideal - 0.27817477780790933
Liberty - 0.3028189803680695
Love - 0.008915691331387754
Practicality - 0.5493575554720469
Self-expression - 0.10173591016881073
Stability - 0.0028765042311191813
Structure - 0.43459625792677786

Actually, maybe I'll just make a static plot?
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Post Post #242 (isolation #65) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:41 pm

Post by Psyche »

added option to subset analysis to your discussion forum or your mafia forum posts
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Post Post #247 (isolation #66) » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:59 pm

Post by Psyche »

think it's just the nature of the medium
the average input to this service isn't a set of semi-anonymous forum posts after all
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Post Post #252 (isolation #67) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:11 am

Post by Psyche »

When you click the link I send you, an instance of the Google Drive file I created is copied just for you and displayed within the Google Colab app. You get full agency over which cells you run and what kind of input to put into them. According to Google, the files you add to your Google Drive app or folder are stored on servers in secure data centers. Your data stored with Google is encrypted during transfer from your computer — and while it sits on Google Drive servers. This is demonstrated by the "Secure" indicator you should see next to your address bar while the notebook is open in your browser if you're using Google Chrome. The colab notebook I shared deviates from the overall security of Google Drive in just two, carefully considered ways: first, it sends a POST request to ucp.php?mode=login with your username and password included in the form to create an authenticated session with which to scrape the site. As
soon
as this session is created, the password is discarded, as it only exists within the scope of a short authentication function. Second, after scraping posts (and your avatar url) using your account, it submits the posts to IBM Cloud for generation of the personality profile. At no point while using the notebook is your private information, including your generated profile, sent anywhere else. Importantly, you can see what exactly the cells do to your input by double clicking a cell and checking out the code written inside. I understand that a bit of trust goes into deciding to use the code I've generated in this notebook; in the future, I will submit my notebooks to a code-savvy admin like Kison before sharing them to confirm for you that I've not abused that trust.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/tech ... cloud.html
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Post Post #254 (isolation #68) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:31 am

Post by Psyche »

if you resize your window to one with a smaller width the plot should get small enough to screenshot
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Post Post #260 (isolation #69) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:53 am

Post by Psyche »

Oh, I remember this post.

If the forum is organized like ours is, then you could potentially double-click the login cell and change the "siteurl" variable in the underlying code to your site's home url. If it's not, you'll have to find a way to collect the text of your posts on that forum so that they can be put through the API.
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Post Post #262 (isolation #70) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:10 pm

Post by Psyche »

yeah, it would be hard to translate to another forum, unfortunately;
just to test any implementation would require me to make an account there
i don't have the time for it
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Post Post #264 (isolation #71) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:58 pm

Post by Psyche »

if you look at the guide i should make more prominent "Uncompromising" refers to your moral values: https://watson-developer-cloud.github.i ... istics.pdf
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Post Post #267 (isolation #72) » Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:17 pm

Post by Psyche »

they're percentiles i believe, with 70% meaning your score is higher than those of 70% of the general population
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Post Post #276 (isolation #73) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:03 am

Post by Psyche »

click the link in my sig to so it urself
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Post Post #278 (isolation #74) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:21 am

Post by Psyche »

the stuff you’re bringing up has already been brought up in this thread many times

https://console.bluemix.net/docs/servic ... ml#science

here are some details and scientific background behind the service; can iso me to catch up on the discussion further
the content in this link and elsewhere at the linked site are what differs this service from any horoscope
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Post Post #282 (isolation #75) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:47 am

Post by Psyche »

Yeah like I said before, I think it’s a reasonable consequence of the difference in sourcing. According to the link, the model was apparently fitted on tweets. MS posts are in general different from tweets in key ways likely to result in overall patterns of scores across profiles.

In an ideal situation, I would collect everyone’s raw personality scores across MS and re-generate percentiles based on their distribution. That way, even though the model is fitted on tweets, you at least know you’re being compared to a more appropriate population.
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Post Post #283 (isolation #76) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:20 am

Post by Psyche »

Anyway, we’ve been thinking of hosting our modbot tools the same way I’ve hosted this profiler thing. Does that seem like a good idea given your experience with google colab so far?
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Post Post #284 (isolation #77) » Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:03 am

Post by Psyche »

if you’re interested, you can compare your text based results with survey results you can generate at the page here: http://www.personalitylab.org
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Post Post #289 (isolation #78) » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:48 am

Post by Psyche »

In post 235, Psyche wrote:Some new resources for interpreting your scores (the Big 5 ones anyway):
https://watson-developer-cloud.github.i ... istics.pdf
https://watson-developer-cloud.github.i ... istics.pdf
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Post Post #297 (isolation #79) » Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:29 am

Post by Psyche »

In post 231, Psyche wrote:https://colab.research.google.com/drive ... xMode=true

Here! This is a simple, easy to use tool you can use from your Google account to generate a personality profile for yourself. Let me know if you have any questions.
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Post Post #299 (isolation #80) » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:55 pm

Post by Psyche »

have always been a big fan of appraisal theory but other than that idk
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