Mini 1800 - Game Over

[Firebringer]

Can we literally stop talking about actions?
Like, read the content of his posts and tell me what his motivation is. I am not going to town or scum read someone on bs claims.

[Masquerade]

How about you make your own reads instead of depending on others?

[Firebringer]

Also, when I'm scum I kill the players I can't mislynch. Wingback would fall into that category for me.

This is also a strong possibility, it might not be wingback had good reads but they were just never thought off as a possible mislynch target during the days.
So that should be considered as possibility.

I don't think they were killed for being suspected of being pr though.

[Firebringer]

How about you make your own reads instead of depending on others?

This account isn't made to do work.
I have karnos at null because all thats literally happened with him so far is talk about actions (at least today i think).

[Masquerade]

Actually, I want to

VOTE: Magna

If Wingback was a threat to anyone, it was Magna.

[Firebringer]

Pedit: Why? Why does your gut say that? What stands out to you from today if you aren't reading the fucking thread?

It was mostly tone of his posts, lot of them seemed fake to me and none of his motivations felt like he actually cared about solving the game and was more interested in looking like he was.

I don't know, sounds kind of vague but thats what he gave off.
Just look at latest post of his when he tells masq off for voting a town read, instead of saying something like "why did you do this?" just instant criticizes it like should have known better.

[Masquerade]

How about you make your own reads instead of depending on others?

This account isn't made to do work.
I have karnos at null because all thats literally happened with him so far is talk about actions (at least today i think).

Yeah no I misinterpreted your post I think. I like you're being sort of critical and I think you're town rn.
The reason I'm townreading Karnos, and defended him yesterday, is because everything he explained checked out.
Karnos was townreading Persivul, then Pers flipped scum in another game, at which point Karnos got paranoid and voted Pers (and was awkward with explaining that calling it a fake vote) and I checked that other game and the timing checks out. And you of all people should understand, because you have been paranoid about me in the past after you townread me when I was scum.
What is your stance on this? Do you believe Karnos as scum would have thought to do this the same way? Do you believe Karnos would have gotten paranoid feelings from Pers flipping scum if he knew in this game what alignment he has (if Karnos is scum he knows Pers' alignment, unless this is multiball or we have a SK, but the single kill points to singleball rn)

[Firebringer]

What is your stance on this? Do you believe Karnos as scum would have thought to do this the same way? Do you believe Karnos would have gotten paranoid feelings from Pers flipping scum if he knew in this game what alignment he has (if Karnos is scum he knows Pers' alignment, unless this is multiball or we have a SK, but the single kill points to singleball rn)

What does this have to do with Persivul alignment? You suggesting multiball of Pers flipping different team? Huh?

I don't know if he would or wouldn't, all I could do is put myself in his shoes and say what I would do, and its likely not claim a PR unless my ass was really on the line. My first thoughts wouldn't be Neopolitian cause I have seen town get lynched with that claim and I don't think its even a good role. I can't say what Kranos would do though cause I don't know how he operates as far as play style. His posts seem simplistic in style and in tone. Maybe its a facade but he doesn't seem like some master planner, unless his hypothetical teammates are, even so its some weird lies.

Meh, I don't think mathblade is on the target with it. I can tell by logic used by math its forced and its just self serving the bias had before with a previous read.
I would like to hear more about it, but thats my thoughts so far without doing ISO of Kranos.

[MechaGoomba]

@Mecha: Wouldn't a scum Johnny flip not implicate me more?

No. If you were bussing, you'd have no reason to jump off the wagon right as the lynch became inevitable. It would waste the towncred gained from bussing.
Hopping on to push the wagon, then having misgivings when it was inevitable so you could get towncred for predicting it?
Also, I really like how you said this before Johnny flipped town. Smacks of foreknowledge; I know I'd never defend myself based on the flip of someone I don't know the alignment of.

How do you go from this –
To this –
In nine whopping posts?

My initial thought was "well that was really anti-town but there are obvious motives for town!Masq to do such a thing." Then I realized a lot of people didn't see the motives until Masq explained them, so it wasn't actually obvious, so I figured "let Masq explain/people push Masq into explaining, then I can analyze and see if the stated motives make sense." Because, well, Masq knows his motives better than I do.

I investigated persivul. No result. Either I got roleblocked, or persivul got jailed.

I get a sense that I'm being setup, like scum have a blocker or something, so they can push for my lynch tomorrow when I don't get a result.

Wow karnos! You successfully predicted that scum had a blocker day 1! How unlikely!

If Karnos had talked to scumbuddies, I'm sure more option would have come up, like commuter or hider or roles like that.

"If karnos was scum he'd have played better because scum have daytalk."
Good lord this is such a WIFOMy defense I'm tempted to just say you're both scum and be done with it.

@karnos: Why did you investigate Persivul rather than Masquerade? Masq had claimed VT; you'd have been able to confirm him either as town or as scum by checking.

[Persivul]

I investigated persivul. No result. Either I got roleblocked, or persivul got jailed.

I like this from karnos.

[Persivul]

You sure you aren't just full of shit? Did some reading overnight to try to find Neopolitan games and I found viewtopic.php?p=7751207#p7751207

What exactly did you learn about this game from a game which had a scum neapolitan who was lynched D1?

[MagnaofIllusion]

I’m whelmed by karnos’s results.

@karnos

– please elaborate on why you chose Pers as your claimed target because re-reading you ISO I’m not seeing much to leads me to think that choice makes sense.

Reading back through end of Day I really don’t like either Math or Quib’s reaction to the hammer pre-flip. And wanted to highlight the following Wingback post –

@Mathblade, why would a hypothetical scum-Masquerade quickhammer Johnny if all the other lynch options (Dierfire, Mathblade) are town? You say Dierfire is a bad pick and I'm assuming you think you are town.

Masquerade's hammer makes the most sense if he's scum with one of Mathblade or Dierfire, and Johnny is town. I'm guessing he saw the case on Dierfire and qubixes agreeing and panicked at the possibility of a last minute switch. I don't buy for a second that there would be "apathy and no flip" when there are more than two days left to deadline. Also think if Masquerade was town, he'd at least give Johnny time to claim after hammer intent was stated. There was a four minute gap between his intent and hammer.

I need to thoroughly re-read Saru as well. In my notes I had him as town for his angry/genuine response to Persivul and his breakdown of Kappy's logic in Post 237. But his later posting has been a cause for concern.

That’s a pretty strong impression of the following as his parting thoughts.

@Firebringer

– why based on looking at Wing did you choose Dier for today’s vote?

A vote without reasons makes me suspect Dierfire might be being set up.

So who are your scum-reads again? Because I don’t recall you looking sideways at Chumba / Bulge / Firebringer yesterday when you were howling for karnos / Masq / my heads. But the only person who could be scum capitalizing on setting up Dier would be Firebringer and that doesn’t seem to fit your paradigm from Day 1. And you started the day voting Quib.

Well scum better be afraid because I do NK analysis. I do vote count analysis (differently than Titus). Did I not say Johnny was town? Did I not say that how that wagon formed by Masquerade and hammered by Masquerade was bad?

So despite Quib’s position of agreeing with you that the Johnny wagon was bad and Masq being the end-all-be-all of scum according to this you didn’t start the day voting him and instead voted Quib?

[Masquerade]

What is your stance on this? Do you believe Karnos as scum would have thought to do this the same way? Do you believe Karnos would have gotten paranoid feelings from Pers flipping scum if he knew in this game what alignment he has (if Karnos is scum he knows Pers' alignment, unless this is multiball or we have a SK, but the single kill points to singleball rn)

What does this have to do with Persivul alignment? You suggesting multiball of Pers flipping different team? Huh?

If Karnos is scum, he knows whether Pers is town or scum, no? Unless this is multiball or if there is a SK. So there was no reason for Karnos as scum to be paranoid of Persivul. You answered the question anyway:

I don't know if he would or wouldn't, all I could do is put myself in his shoes and say what I would do, and its likely not claim a PR unless my ass was really on the line. My first thoughts wouldn't be Neopolitian cause I have seen town get lynched with that claim and I don't think its even a good role. I can't say what Kranos would do though cause I don't know how he operates as far as play style. His posts seem simplistic in style and in tone. Maybe its a facade but he doesn't seem like some master planner, unless his hypothetical teammates are, even so its some weird lies.

Meh, I don't think mathblade is on the target with it. I can tell by logic used by math its forced and its just self serving the bias had before with a previous read.
I would like to hear more about it, but that's my thoughts so far without doing ISO of Kranos.

I don't take Karnos as a master planner either, I don't think Karnos would have come up with using his other game that just ended like that if he didn't feel real paranoia. But I also don't see him as a bad player. Only experience I have with him is a multiball where we were on opposing scumteams. My buddy was lynched D1, I killed Karnos' buddy N1, town lynched me D2, and then I think they lynched Karnos D4. So I wouldn't call him a bad player, but I don't think he'll be making very complex plans.

[Masquerade]

I’m whelmed by karnos’s results.

Whelmed. So you're neutral then?
I actually think Karnos' pick made sense..
What is your read on Qubixes?

[Persivul]

My thoughts on karnos claim and results:

1. I doubt it's a fake claim, because it's so unusual. I think scum making something up would choose something seen more frequently. This is the first I've heard of neapolitan.

2. If he's genuinely neapolitan and scum, I think he would have wanted to give a result in order to get towncred. It's bad for scum to make conftowns, but they can be killed as created, and a no result could be claimed on a later night.

3. I make sense as a target. I started off good and some people are town reading me, but my game went downhill and some are scum reading me. Also, I'm good at defending when pressed. I.e. I'm kind of scummy, but won't be easy to lynch. That's a good target for an investigation.

[Masquerade]

@Pers. 1 Unless they are afraid a more common role is already in the game. They would be cc'ed. So in a closed setup a less common role is safer to claim.
2 Completely agree and that's exactly what I would do if I were scum as well (and have done)
3 Yes, but thanks for spoonfeeding that to Karnos. I mean, I'm pretty sure he's town but I'm also aware that I could be wrong. Besides that, other players are not convinced of Karnos being town so they kind of need a genuine answer from Karnos.

[Masquerade]

Addition to 1: It's possible scum have roles and claim that or something similar thinking it won't be in the game because of their own roles.

[Persivul]

@Pers. 1 Unless they are afraid a more common role is already in the game. They would be cc'ed. So in a closed setup a less common role is safer to claim.

Scum concerned with safety can choose a protective role or even a backup role. A role that creates conftowns wouldn't be high on their list to fake.

[MechaGoomba]

1. I doubt it's a fake claim, because it's so unusual. I think scum making something up would choose something seen more frequently. This is the first I've heard of neapolitan.

2. If he's genuinely neapolitan and scum, I think he would have wanted to give a result in order to get towncred. It's bad for scum to make conftowns, but they can be killed as created, and a no result could be claimed on a later night.

3. I make sense as a target. I started off good and some people are town reading me, but my game went downhill and some are scum reading me. Also, I'm good at defending when pressed. I.e. I'm kind of scummy, but won't be easy to lynch. That's a good target for an investigation.

I agree with points 1 and 3, but I'm not entirely certain about 2. Killing the person conftowned by karnos might work once or twice, but a pattern would be pretty obvious, especially since we're not directing him in-thread.

What exactly did you learn about this game from a game which had a scum neapolitan who was lynched D1?

Oh god how did I miss that.
This is half of why I'm not voting karnos; everyone scumreading him has terrible horrible arguments.

(The other half is that a karnos who fakeclaims Neapolitan, of all roles, is not a karnos who decides to claim that the person pushing his wagon is a mason.)

Unless they are afraid a more common role is already in the game.

I dunno about you, but if I was a cop I would've CCed karnos in the blink of an eye. I have yet to see a game this small with two cop-variants. Cop-variant and watcher-variant, maybe, but definitely nothing more.

PE: Wait wait wait. Masq, you were literally just defending karnos. Why are you attacking him now?

[karnos]

Guess I should do this:

VOTE: MathBlade

I'm even more confident about this now, since Wingback was the only other player I had a strong scum suspicion on. Anyone else find it a little hypocritical he is linking to other games to show meta and then at the end of his post he is saying we shouldn't use meta to find scum? 956

Firebringer has an odd stance, not sure I have seen a player flat-out refuse to read through the thread upon replacing in before. I find myself largely agreeing with his posts, maybe fresh perspective free of influences from the first 900 posts is a good thing? I thought his slot was town before he replaced in, so going to call this null/town for now.

re: neapolitan, I wanted to pick a target that I thought actually had a decent chance of being a VT, and that also wasn't making a lot of noise. Someone like masquerade fit into the first qualifier, but I had my fear that he might be killed or jailed at night. I figured persivul had been keeping such a low profile lately that it was unlikely for him to be killed or jailed, and I thought there was at least a fair chance of him being a VT.

Since there was a kill last night, I'm guessing scum have a role blocker.

[Persivul]

I'm even more confident about this now, since Wingback was the only other player I had a strong scum suspicion on. Anyone else find it a little hypocritical he is linking to other games to show meta and then at the end of his post he is saying we shouldn't use meta to find scum? 956

I find his bringing up "site meta" to be bizarre. Maybe this site has some different conventions from other sites, but it's not like people intentionally play by the MS playbook.

[Masquerade]

Where am I attacking Karnos?

[Persivul]

Yeah, in 990 his points 1 & 3 are against karnos, but 2 is for him. I saw it more as questioning me than attacking karnos.

[qubixes]

@Mecha: Wouldn't a scum Johnny flip not implicate me more?

No. If you were bussing, you'd have no reason to jump off the wagon right as the lynch became inevitable. It would waste the towncred gained from bussing.
Hopping on to push the wagon, then having misgivings when it was inevitable so you could get towncred for predicting it?
Also, I really like how you said this before Johnny flipped town. Smacks of foreknowledge; I know I'd never defend myself based on the flip of someone I don't know the alignment of.

Why was it inevitable? Also, it wasn't a defense. I wanted to know whether you'd think my action was scummy too if Johnny flipped scum. Thinking back on it, it wasn't a very useful question in the first place, since if you're scum you would know what Johnny was going to flip..

The plan of trying to get towncred by jumping off the wagon, accusing the one who just cast some shade on my hop-on, then complaining that Johnny got lynched. That sounds like a really bad plan to me. Especially given the amount of attention I drew/tried to draw.

When Saru jumped on I got cold feet. His shade casting on me while very reluctantly joining the Johnny wagon seemed really off to me. And I was already scum reading him. When Karnos jumped on afterwards I was pretty sure that it was a bad wagon. Then the Masquerade hammer... I would be very surprised if all of them flip town.

[Persivul]

Just read WB's ISO. His major scum reads were math and dier.

On karnos, he went from suspecting him, to strongly town reading him, to suspecting him again late in phase.

VOTE: mathblade