[SETUP] repository of my various old open setups

[callforjudgement]

Re: Shot in the Dark: I'm going to analyse the case where shooting someone doesn't negate their guess.

As long as two scum are alive, you can choose two players that you think are most likely scum each day, A and B. You lynch B. If B is scum, then just proceed as normal. If B is town, then at night, you form a list of the remaining non-A/B players (e.g. C, D, E, F), then circle-guess: C guesses AD, D guesses AE, E guesses AF, F guesses AC. If A is scum, this automatically wins the game for town. Otherwise, A will be confirmed as town and thus scum are forced to shoot them (read: clearly have a worse EV if they don't shoot them). The end result is that town have basically made two lynches negating the scum nightkill in the process (and one of which gives town an autowin if it hits town). There's also a small extra chance of town winning, as A gets a free guess which has a chance of picking the scumteam.

That said, 6:2 has a 50% EV even with no scum nightkills at all (lynches only), so it's possible that the setup is balanced despite this strategy. That said, 6:2 is believed to be highly townsided in practice due to the inability of the scum to eliminate problem townies. (I forget what the usual size for a mountainous Micro nightless is, maybe 5:2?)

Allowing scum to negate a guess by shooting someone adds a bunch of WIFOM to this. I'm not immediately sure how much it benefits scum.