Mini 1787: Peruvian Nightclub Mafia (Game End!)

[toolenduso]

VOTE: ira

for being scum.

Also, hi ira and keyser!

[toolenduso]

Hey, that's cool. I actually only played for like less than a year in 2007 before I quit the site. Only came back a year or two ago.

[toolenduso]

VOTE: iraonavp
Voting someone who hasn't even talked

like the mafia

This isn't an rvs vote, this is an actual read and its' not changing for the rest of the day

A little confused here. Is there like an inside joke between you and zach that I'm not getting? And are you joking about being serious?

[toolenduso]

You think this is a game?

Are you a Lapsa alt? Be honest now.

[toolenduso]

You entered the game with a level of comfort that looked sort of like "hey look at me! scum would never post like this!" It's a strategy I use... to often as scum.

I did not get that vibe. Could you explain and point to an example?

I'm pretty sure Dunnstral is not being "serious" - you're not feeling/seeing that care-free sarcastic vibe?

I do now, yeah. It's become more clear. At the time my thought was that the posts were either jokes or baiting.

Dunn's become a townlean.

Bins

Why a townread on Bins?

[toolenduso]

@tool - thoughts on xyzzy?

Pretty neutral. The posts people have been talking about do not look all that insidious to me -- this early in the game you have to weigh the possibility that people are looking for a mislynch against the possibility that people are trying to get the game going.

I did find it interesting that multiple players (xyzzy, tool, bins) all focused their early efforts on dunn. I think there is scum in there looking for an easy mislynch.

Dunn's become a townlean.

I have a question for you, actually -- have your thoughts on Robert changed?

[toolenduso]

As for me saying there is scum in {you, xyzzy, bins} are simply stating you are not scum or are you saying that none of the three of you are scum?

Just me -- specifically I was pointing out that it doesn't make sense for you to say I'm trying to get Dunn lynched when he is my only townlean.

What do you think of Robert?

I think he wasn't thinking about the way he looked when he posted that first post. Since it's one post I don't think that's enough to base a read on, but it's there.

[toolenduso]

This game is basically contradicting my expectations of how town usually gets out of RVS. I feel like it usually goes like this:

RVS votes -> player A says something mildly scummy -> people wagon player A, and in the process player B says something weird -> people wagon player B

By this time in the game I feel like there's usually been a legit wagon. Since there hasn't been one yet in this game, I feel like scum is either disjointed or timid.

The main thing was that I really expected at least a small wagon on Robert for his first post. As soon as I saw it I thought it looked very surface-level scummy. Exactly the sort of thing you can make a shallow case on. Good place to look for scum trying to go for something easy/look like they're scumhunting.

Then jaack was the only person to do anything about it. After that:

ira kinda joke-criticized jaack about it in #29, Tyler townread jaack in #54 for it, Keyser voted jaack for it in #55 and Dunn votes and makes a case on jaack in #91.

It just kinda makes sense to me that jaack could be scum and his partners didn't support the robert wagon but are also not really dealing with the fallout on jaack either. He's a good place to start, I think.

VOTE: jaack

In other news, re-reading gave me a townlean on Tyler. Not entirely for the way he's playing, though he is doing work (a surface-level towny-looking thing), but more the way that people started townreading him almost in kind of snowball fashion. It's striking me as the kind of thing where town say he looks town, impressionable town agree and scum hop onto the townreading wagon in an effort to have genuine-looking reads.

[toolenduso]

Zachstralkita has managed to talk a lot while saying very little, and I really don't like that.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zachstralkita

It strikes me that this is kind of an easy vote to make.

What do you think of the possibility that zach is just a jokey player, so his posts are naturally going to have less solid content in them?

That being said...

Blatant scum. Are you kidding me?

VOTE: Dunnstral

...the jokey playstyle does make it harder for me to know whether statements like this one are serious. Can you explain the dunn vote, zach?

[toolenduso]

This isn't Dunn being town, it's him trying to look like he's being town.

Trying to look town...could you show an example? Also, are you and Dunn like friends or something? 'cuz it seems like you know each other pretty well.

[toolenduso]

I definitely agree that this day is moving in an abnormal fashion; I'm curious how you believe this would likely affect most town players, since you offered an opinion on how that might change scum behavior.

Knowing how they'd respond would likely depend on individual playstyles. Errybody's different. For some people it might mean trying harder to get the game going -- maybe by starting a wagon just to see what happens -- and for others it might mean that they get disinterested and don't participate as much.

In my case, it's led to me trying to start a wagon to see what happens.

What do you think of jaack?

I have a general Idea after catching up a feel for the players.

Can you share some thoughts? And how they lead to you voting for Jake?

For he may try to take revenge upon me from a previous game.

Who's to say anybody would listen to him if he tried to get you lynched?

Is it not equally likely that Jaack voted Robert because he genuinely believed his post was suspicious, regardless of how "surface level" that belief might be?

I mean, yes, that's a possible motivation. But the motivation behind jaack's vote on Robert wasn't as important to me as people's reactions (or lack of reactions) to both jaack and Robert.

[toolenduso]

This is an interesting way/reason for town-leaning Tyler the Creator [based on the nature of him being mass-town-read]. I kind of switch off to the popular town/scum reads on D1. Have you found this observation-method accurate in previous games?

Not sure whether I've used this particular way of looking through things in an MS game before...I'd lean toward no. I think I actually approached it this way because I'm fresh off a game night where me and a couple other scummers played Resistance. I won't go into the details of how that game differs from forum mafia, but suffice to say that when scumhunting in that game you need to look at things a little differently. Specifically, you have to watch for ways that people make choices that seem to align them with certain other players.

Yeah, definitely not joining the bins wagon now... while I think dunn's argument has merit, I'm NOT joining a wagon with ira and tool on it.

Does knowing that I'm not on the wagon change the way you feel about the Bins wagon at all?

But as for tool=scum he has largely been going with what was popular at the time (early dunn questioning, my mini wagon) it's not much, but it gives me a lingering feeling he's scum.

'twas coincidence, not cause.

(It wasn't that I was following other people, it was that I happened to think something was significant and I wasn't the only one to think that)

In other news, ira may or may not be playing to his scum meta from the last time I played with him. I'm gonna go back and check out his early play in that game...

[toolenduso]

OK I tried looking back on the game I played with ira where he was scum, but pretty much decided it wouldn't be all that useful. Turns out he'd only just joined the site like a week or two before that game started. Also the circumstances were pretty different early on in that game -- we had a townie fakeclaiming jailkeeper by page four. Whereas we're 11 pages into this game and still haven't really run anybody up.

Gonna do some more work on this game now; wanted to note a couple things about mafia theory first. I disagree that readslists are useless/bad. I use them to organize my thoughts and help people understand where I'm coming from. They're how I hold myself accountable for making sure I don't get lazy and scumhunt based off of bullshit, basically. I also feel that they play, in some small way, a role in keeping the game civil.

I also think it's valid to assess wagons based on who's on them -- actually, it's probably more accurate than a lot of other scumhunting tactics people use. I let myself join wagons in the past year or so where I thought the people on those wagons looked scummy, and they often wound up being mislynches. I'd convinced myself that it was worth it because the wagon's target looked scummy, and I was wrong.

[toolenduso]

Up to this point, he had only joined in post 55 voting Jack as mafia (a surprisingly large amount of people immediately read Jack as mafia or town based off of his simple post 13)

Then immediately in posts 56-58 and 79-81 just quotes what others are saying and maybe asks follow up questions without literally given up anything original on his own. The only other posts he has made are 204-206 and 222, all of which he does the exact same thing. Just quoting others and giving a quick comment, but absolutely saying nothing original or doing nothing to help the game. 205 unvotes Jack, but that's that.

OK, but here's the thing though. Take a look at Keyser's early-game posts in this game.

I'm not gonna give him a pass or anything just yet, and actually I want to go through his ISO here in a minute, but I am approaching this with the knowledge that: A) People were suspicious of Keyser early in that game too, and B) Eventually he became pretty obvtown.

[toolenduso]

OK I tried looking back on the game I played with ira where he was scum, but pretty much decided it wouldn't be all that useful. Turns out he'd only just joined the site like a week or two before that game started. Also the circumstances were pretty different early on in that game -- we had a townie fakeclaiming jailkeeper by page four. Whereas we're 11 pages into this game and still haven't really run anybody up.

Link please? Would like to take a look.

Here.

[toolenduso]

Keyser:

-Lots of asking people questions designed to challenge them a bit, see #55, #79, #206.
-Unvotes jaack in #205 and hasn't revoted since then. Arc on jaack is natural enough, but it does come amid some pressure for his jaack read, and some people expressing suspicion of Keyser. Want to bookmark that for later.
-Not a whole lot to work with so far. Could be attributed to the stagnancy of the game or to being afraid of looking bad. Second point lends evidence to that.

ira:

-Ostensibly, ira treated the game like it was RVS until #198, because when people gave him flak for his Keyser vote his defense was that he was trying to build a wagon to get out of RVS. Fair enough. But in that same post he votes Bins, right after Dunn begins pushing for a Bins wagon. It's the same MO as when he voted for Keyser, basically, but at this point he's putting reasoning behind it. So it kind of all comes together to look like ira was floating along trying to look active, then got criticized for it and came up with an excuse (I'm trying to get out of RVS) but also tried to escape the criticism by going to the next viable wagon he could find (Bins). It's worth noting that ira says he didn't know Dunn was voting Bins (#256).
-He switches back to Keyser in #257. He has reasoning, and I do follow it logically, but it should be noted that it happens amid pressure for his Bins vote, and in the process of switching to Keyser he distances himself from the Bins vote.
-#259 just doesn't make sense, because mafia is a game where you can't trust people and therefore can't take what they say at face value. The lack of information forces you to try to read into why people are saying the things they're saying. So basically this comes across like a weak defense.

xyzzy:

-I have trouble with posts like #89. When I go back and do rereads, I make a point of condensing them into a more useful format -- that is, breaking them down player-by-player or wagon-by-wagon, only highlighting the most significant things, etc. This is a lot of posts and it's just done chronologically, and therefore my first thought is that it's just xyzzy looking for busywork to appear town. The problem is that it kinda fits the narrative about xyzzy coming back to the site after a long hiatus -- in other words, they could just be rusty. I guess I just want to note that so I can start to look for patterns.
-As I noted before, the vote on zach in that post is kind of "safe."
-On second glance, I'm not sure why the question xyzzy asked me in #158 mattered...in other words, I don't know what xyzzy expected to get out of it in the way of scumhunting.

jaack:

-As I noted before, #13 makes sense in a very surface-level way. Robert's post violated a very common buzzword-y kind of logic about what town's motivation is. So it's the kind of post I would expect scum to hop on, and jaack did.
-He switches to ira in #66, and it does come after Keyser votes jaack for voting robert. That being said, I guess I would think scum would try harder to get something going on robert? Whereas jaack doesn't really try all that hard.
-I'm noticing a pattern of something that kind of approaches OMGUS territory without diving into it headfirst. His vote on ira came after ira's cheeky "criticism" of jaack. And then in #127 he starts being suspicious of me based on me voting jaack. The reasoning he attaches to it in #221 is a little reach-y, which he admits.

Ira looks worse than I thought and jaack looks better than I thought.

VOTE: iraonavp

Would like to do Bins, Zach and Tyler next.

[toolenduso]

Bins:

-Starts off with her read on dunn (#23), which people (myself included) were confused by, and which she later backed away from (#176). I can buy her reasons for backing away from it -- that the attitude she thought was scummy became consistent and started looking more like playstyle than alignment-indicative. It's a very natural thing to happen early in the game.
-Votes ira in #213. It's kinda one of those situations where she lets somebody else talk her into the vote. Slightly scummy to do, since she'd unvoted dunn after being criticized and needed a place to put her vote.
-Still overall pretty neutral on this slot though. It mostly just looks like she's trying to get into the game, which comes from either alignment.

Zach:

-Most of zach's posting makes it clear that he's taking a lighthearted/"jokey" approach to the game, which is fine. I assume that posts that make absolute statements like #94 and #159 are exaggerations.
-The dunn vote appears to me to be zach's way of trying to get things moving. It's like he's trying to get a reaction out of dunn or something. What's unclear is what exactly he expects to get out of dunn, or anybody else, with his vote. He hasn't switched off of dunn yet, and he's basically just been focusing on him.
-My theory is that this approach to the game is more likely to come from town, simply because it shows that the person doesn't really care how they look. I've seen exceptions to that (where the player in question was actually scum), but just on percentages I'd give the edge to town. That being said, it'll definitely be useful to keep track of patterns in Zach's pushing/votes/etc. throughout the game.

Tyler:

-I don't see a whole lot worth commenting on in Tyler's ISO. It's all pretty standard stuff, asking people for questions, collecting information, etc. The only thing to note is that although Tyler has been questioning people and it looks like he's attempting to drive the game forward, the game remains somewhat stagnant. Idk if that reflects more on Tyler or other people, but it's there.
-So I'm just going to revert back to my original reasoning on townleaning on Tyler -- that it makes sense to me that there was a cascade of townreads on him because he's town.

[toolenduso]

I don't see how an RVS from another game has anything to do with reading how he plays as scum or town.

Sorry if I didn't make this clear in my last post -- it seemed to me like you were kinda just scumreading Keyser based on his posting style, and I wanted to show you a towngame where his posting style was similar.

Which doesn't necessarily make him town here, but it does show that his posting style doesn't necessarily make him scum.

And why did he become pretty obvtown? Just by posting a lot of commentary of what others were saying?

No. Part of it had to do with this attitude he had that he was just town and didn't seem to get why people would think he wasn't town. Later it had to do with some specific voting he did. And then eventually he just started doing some super in-depth and helpful analysis that seemed very pro-town to me.

[toolenduso]

Ha's made some good points. That vote for him is probably not a good one.

Do his good points make him more likely town?

Also, what are your thoughts on Dunn -- as in, why not vote him after your back-and-forth with him where you said he was lying?

[toolenduso]

OK, could you go into more detail on the zach read then? Because I weaklean town on that slot.

[toolenduso]

Hi, I will post tomorrow probably but for now it is time for a birthday root beer float!

[toolenduso]

*tomorrow morning probably

[toolenduso]

^Wow I did not notice that. Interested in hearing the answer to that as well.

[toolenduso]

Also kind of interested in this:

VOTE: H_A

Actually thinking about it this needs to post more.

Actually
UNVOTE:
VOTE: heuristically_alone

Ira is more scummy, but I would like to see some pressure on this player.

@floof: why specifically go after H_A to get him to post more? He's not among the least active players in this game. Why not try to get somebody like Robert to post more?
@jaack: Why did you want pressure on H_A specifically?

[toolenduso]

Also this seems like a contradiction to me:

I must prepare myself for Jake. For he may try to take revenge upon me from a previous game.

I dont even remember playing with you

Thank you, and I imagine you wouldn't. I beat you being mafia with AJ. it was awhile back.

You thought he would try to take revenge based on a previous game, but you're not surprised he doesn't remember that game?

[toolenduso]

Yeah that too.

[toolenduso]

@floof: why specifically go after H_A to get him to post more? He's not among the least active players in this game. Why not try to get somebody like Robert to post more?

OK scratch that, I thought H_A was more active than he is, but I checked the activity log and by post count H_A is in like the bottom five posters. So specifically I want to ask you, floof, why you wanted to get H_A to post more but not Robert or xyzzy?

[toolenduso]

I feel like it would be more of a mafic tactic than town, since a town putting a vote at that point is rather pointless and absolutely no evidence to back it up. That's why I felt like for a player voting because of Robert's early vote, it is a greatest chance they are mafia by my book.

OK, but earlier you defended Jaack by saying that you don't understand why Jaack's vote on Robert made Jaack scum. Then you come back later and say that voting Robert for what he did is scummy. So what changed your mind?

[toolenduso]

@Robert I already explained my reasoning for why I added you to my scum board, and if you were paying attention you would see that it has nothing to do with what you think of me, but of how you answered my question when I asked if you were mafia.

Also, didn't you ask Zach if he was mafia, and not Robert?

[toolenduso]

Actually I think he's at L-2:

Unofficial votecount from tool

heuristically_alone -- 5

: floof, Keyser, Jaack, Dunnstral, Zachstralkita

iraonavp -- 3

: Tyler, bins, toolenduso

Zachstralkita -- 3

: xyzzy, JFSF, heuristically

Keyser Söze -- 1

: iraonavp

Not voting

:Robert2424

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-05-06 16:00:00)

That said, it might be a good idea to wait for an official votecount before we go any further.

[toolenduso]

I feel like HA is a good lynch. But I feel like it's a tad fast to lynch right now and I kinda want to sleep on this and come back and look at it with a fresher eye tomorrow. So in the meantime I'd like to ask for no hammers on H_A just yet. And certainly don't do it without getting a claim out of him first.

[toolenduso]

Also yeah it would be nice to hear from robert

[toolenduso]

@Zulfy: I'm voting ira

Which means ira should be at L-3 now with jaack's vote.

@Jaack: No, you're right. Doc is basically what scum claim when they think they're going to die. It's very possible he's scum fakeclaiming, but if he is doc then it would really suck to lynch him today. Because then we get rid of a PR for scum and then they have a chance to kill another one at night.

My plan was to compare ira and HA as lynch options. Now I've got some other stuff to look at.

[toolenduso]

@zulfy: the last two VCs had me voting HA too.

fixed fixed fixed

[toolenduso]

So I'm going out of town this weekend. I'll have access to internet but I'll be doing stuff with family so I'm not sure whether I'll have time to post. That being said, I can monitor the game and I can post if I need to.

Where I'm at right now is that I feel like I can comfortably keep my vote on ira. There's some reviewing I still hope to do, and I'm still interested in hearing back from Robert on the stuff Jake and I have pointed out.

V/LA until Sunday.

[toolenduso]

Uh...yep.

VOTE: heuristically_alone

Don't see any reason why ira would do this as scum, and HA's claim was already suspect because it was made close to being lynched.

We can extend the day a little longer if we want to, but I think we've got our lynch.

[toolenduso]

Here, catching up

[toolenduso]

Notes:

-HA's points in his defense after ira's claim make HA look even worse IMO. He basically repeats Jaack's defense of him from earlier (side note: does this make jaack less likely to be a partner of HA's, since scum have daychat? come back to this) and then gives a lame excuse for not voting ira that contradicts the defense he'd just made.
-RE: #560, I'm not sure I've ever seen somebody say that it's a bad idea to lynch D1

in general.

I have no idea why that would be the case. He includes a conditional in the sentence, saying he's suspicious of HA. It feels off, and possibly like half distancing from a buddy, half trying to see if there's any way to kill the wagon on HA.
-RE: #563, Robert's explanations of his original voting of Jake continues to get more confusing. He wants town to know that Jake might try to take revenge on him, OK, you can do that without voting Jake. And he openly admits he has nothing to indicate whether Jake is town or scum, and yet he voted Jake after leaving the game for a while and catching up? Robert also doesn't answer my questions, he only answers Jake's.
-The claim is weird. It also seems like it could be an attempt to save HA.

448 (toolenduso) - it should basically go without saying that lynching h_a at this point in the day would've been a terrible idea, and pointing that out feels like a convenient way to say something about the current state of the game without really

saying

anything.

It should absolutely

not

go without saying. Towns are unpredictable, they can jump the gun, scum can quickhammer, etc. This happens, more than it should, and you should not assume that other players will think about these things before hammering a wagon.

-Gonna save my response to HA's claim explanation for my next post.
-#591 might be a point in favor of townBins, depending on flips.

[toolenduso]

Im not lying. That's what the pm said.

To be absolutely 100% clear here, your role PM says that you are a "weak townie"?

I didn't see the point of a modifier other then to screw me. This is as far as I can tell is the first time playing with zuffy as the MOD. So I don't think he did it to screw me as I don't know him, so why is it in the game? If two protective roles are truly in the game, it makes more sense. If not, why for sake of balancing have the modifier? If you can come up with a theory that makes sense I'll listen, but 2 protective roles makes sense behind the reasoning of giving me this silly modifier. Or anybody for that Matter.

OK, but as far as I can tell, all this logic applies if town has

one

protective role as well. So why did you think, upon seeing two claims of protective roles, that your role made the other two make sense?

[toolenduso]

I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:

Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.

Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim until

after

ira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?

And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?

Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.

I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.

[toolenduso]

The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.

So you're arguing that we should lynch Robert first because ira/Robert is still possible, if unlikely?

[toolenduso]

I mean you can bring up scenarios and percentages all day long, realistically I don't think Robert is mafia so I'm not thinking this is a good vote

Sorry if you've already addressed this, but I looked back at your posts and didn't see anything -- what do you make of the fact that Robert said he had never heard of the macho modifier, then later said he was a macho townie?

@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook.

[toolenduso]

The amount and structure of resistance to lynching HA makes me continually comfortable with the lynch. And regardless of his flip, we will have a lot more evidence to look at tomorrow than we've had for most of today.

[toolenduso]

I think that Robert is town-aligned.

I feel like heuristically_alone is more likely to be town-aligned than not, when I think about it.

I'm doubting that there would be both a macho townie and a bodyguard

, when both aren't strong roles.

I'm confused. You doubt Robert's claim, and you still think he's town?

I don't like how you feel the need to justify it with weak reasons like this

Justify? No, not really. If you hadn't noticed by now, the way I play the game is kind of a building process. I leave myself notes as I go along, and every once in a while I leave a case or a readslist or something. I'm not justifying it so much as I'm laying down a path for where I've been and where I'm going.

And assuming I'm alive tomorrow (the most likely case), where I'm going is that I'm going to be looking at how people interacted with

It would be really bad if we're both town-aligned

Good thing I don't think you both are. But I'm not going to let my number one lynch candidate out of the noose because they might be town. Everybody

might

be town.

"information lynches" don't exist.

I would argue that most D1 lynches are "information lynches." You rarely have anything solid to go on -- just look at the HA lynch here. Even with a counterclaim to his role, we have people like you saying it's not solid evidence.

The gambit that Jaack is theorizing seems altogether impossible to me.

I think part of this hinges on the whole "my role makes both their roles likely" concept. Because if Robert really believed that -- and other people in the game do too, apparently, and I still don't think I understand why -- it provides an alternative town explanation for his claim.

It does not, however, address the weirdness with his role name.

[toolenduso]

And assuming I'm alive tomorrow (the most likely case), where I'm going is that I'm going to be looking at how people interacted with

...the HA and Robert wagons. Don't know how I left that part off.

[toolenduso]

Hey zakk!

So I did some analysis during the night, and I'm only going to post the first half (next post) until I get answers from Bins and Tyler on the following questions:

my take is that i don't like roberts play but

i can't remember the last time scum misread their role pm

whereas town do it once in a while

If robert was fakeclaiming scum, he wouldn't be reading a role PM. He'd be making up a claim. So what did you mean by this?

But in a way, man, clearing up the H_A and Robert scum possibility is important. I just agree that there's a chance - A CHANCE - that H_A is scum and Robert is not and that's more likely than Robert scum and H_A not. Robert's move, much like Irao's, was crazy town.

The first couple sentences here seem to suggest you think Robert could be scum. The last suggests you're sure he's town. Which was it, and what do you think of Robert's claim now?

[toolenduso]

On second thought, I'll just wait to post my analysis until I get answers from them. Just to do things right and make absolutely sure I'm not influencing any answers.

[toolenduso]

The move was crazy town itself. As in, if H_A had flipped town, Robert would be pretty much conf town to me. But now that's he's flipped scum, I have no idea.

Got it.

Leaning town on Bins.

depends if scum get fakeclaims? i don't play a lot of normals so im not completely sure if that's usually a thing

my point was basically that scum are more careful when claiming stuff

Ohhhh OK. That makes sense, thank you for clearing that up.

The Macho modifier, while theoretically conceivable on an otherwise vanilla role, is virtually always seen on something with a night action, generally a powerful one, so as to balance it.

What are you basing this on? Did you research this?

[toolenduso]

K analysis.

It occurred to me that we've actually gained a pretty valuable tool for finding the third scum if we can find the second scum.

The fact scum have daytalk changes the dynamic of HA's doc claim. There's no way scum wouldn't have discussed HA's claim prior to him claiming, so the other scum on the team would have had some kind of plan. IMO, there were only two objectives scum could've had there: assuming HA would die and voting him immediately, or trying to use HA's claim to dismantle his wagon.

So if we get a scumflip on a player who bussed HA after he claimed doc, it would be logical to assume that the other scum player also bussed HA. And if we get a scumflip on a player who seemed like they were waiting to see how other people reacted, or who actively tried to dismantle the HA wagon, we would do well to look for another player that acted similarly.

Specifically, if Robert is scum, this suggests that the scum were trying to save HA with his doc claim, because why would Robert step in and claim macho townie if not to save HA? If that were the case, and we would only know for sure if we got a scumflip on Robert, then we would do well to hunt for the last scum within the pool of people who tried to argue that HA was town after the doc claim.

On the Robert claim

, I'm less inclined to lynch him than I was toward the end of D1. Part of this has to do with rereading the last part of #596. I finally understand what he was saying. We were thinking about game balance in different ways, I think. I was thinking about how a mod would try to have roles

interact with each other

, while Robert was talking about weighing

negatives against positives within the town

. While I think we disagree about how bad a macho townie is for town, I get the basic logic at least.

On top of that, I also realized that it's weird to see fakeclaiming, gambiting scum not only coming up with the super weird fakeclaim of macho townie, but then having that explanation (from #596) for why they think a macho townie would be in the game. The structure of what he's writing doesn't really fit in with the kind of mindset that a scum partner would have to have in order to think that fakeclaiming under those circumstances was a good idea.

Spoiler: The HA wagon

-Final lynch: Keyser, Floof, tool, Jake, Tyler, Jaack, Dunn
-Keyser: One of the first players to suspect HA, starting in #222. Votes HA in #297 after HA makes a case on Keyser. At this point, for them to be partners it would pretty much have to be a designed bus. That's possible, but I lean town on it just because I find it less likely than the explanation that they just aren't partners and because there wasn't really a reason to bus at that point -- neither was in any real danger of being lynched. Knowing that HA is scum actually makes it look like he was trying to take advantage of some of the early suspicion on Keyser (HA's #268 actually was him trying to put logic behind a post where Dunnstral said he suspected Keyser but didn't have any reasoning for it). Once HA claims, Keyser immediately doubts it, though it is worth pointing out that he didn't comment until after ira had counterclaimed. So if Keyser were scum, scum were definitely following the "scum expected HA to die" tactic.
-Floof: First mention of HA is a vote for him in #187, saying HA needed to post more. Later he doesn't answer my question about why he wanted HA to post more than any other player in the game. Points for Floof making one of the earlier non-RVS votes of HA in the game (first?), but the reasoning is weird enough it does make me wonder if it could be bussing. In #367, Floof says the original vote was just to prod activity out of HA, but now he's scumreading HA (at this point floof isn't voting anybody, and he doesn't explain the scumread on HA). Floof explains in #373 that he felt like HA was following wagons, and Floof votes HA. The timing of this is interesting because it's before HA's doc claim and floof said he was either going to vote ira or HA. Ira was the leading wagon (4 votes), but the HA wagon had just gained steam with two votes on HA on the same page (putting the HA wagon at 3 votes). So as a scumpartner, Floof went for a bus even when there was a viable alternative wagon in ira. Water down the townpoints on that for the fact that the HA wagon was the trend at the time and that floof's vote still only put HA at L-3 (not all that dangerous).

Edit from later: Floof actually basically did the same thing that jaack did in choosing HA over ira, but he did it after jaack and dunnstral on the same page. Actually a little suspicious.

Floof's #486 and #631 are asking why people are moving off of HA (this is after HA's doc claim), so if floof is a partner to HA then he's in the "scum expected HA to die" camp.
-Jake: As far as I can tell, Jake's first real interaction with HA comes in #277 and it's a theory debate (up til this point Jake's been doing a lot of that because of disagreements over readslists and such). In #298 he says HA has made some good points and criticizes a vote on him. This strikes me as pretty brazen for scum, especially given that Jake had no real need to do it, and so I lean town on it. Another defense of HA in #337. Jake is also the first to really push HA's inconsistencies, which he does in #410. In fact that's what pushed me to look at HA further. Again, no need for scumpartnerJake to do this, especially since he was already townreading HA, and it led to HA's lynch. So I don't see Jake as a scumpartner. That being said, just to do due diligence, Jake's reaction to HA's claim was to unvote immediately, and then revote HA immediately once ira counterclaimed, then unvote and say that there have been games where both BGs and docs existed. So if Jake is alive in LyLo or something (which I don't expect him to be if he's town) then I think we could put him in the "scum were trying to save HA" camp.
-Tyler: First interaction with HA is #301 and it's nothing very telling. It's kind of interesting, actually, that Tyler basically ignores HA until HA's claim. Tyler actually did not post for the two days leading up to the claim, and then he posted about 20 posts after HA claimed doc. He doesn't really weigh in until after ira's counterclaim, and it's in kinda vague language ("doc and bodyguard both existing in a mini is kinda meh"). In #505 he sets up floof as a possible lynch of HA flips scum. He does some theorizing on the competing claims (#523), but doesn't really take a stance until #540 when he says he's fine with an HA lynch. He hops onto the Robert wagon in #628 after initially pushing against it, and clarifies later that he would still support an HA lynch. A lot of this just kinda raises my hackles as scum avoidance of the subject and trying subtly not to lynch HA. The fact that he disappeared for two days and then came back right as HA claimed would lend support to the "wait-and-see" scumbuddy approach. If Tyler is scum, he's in the "scum were trying to save HA" camp.
-Jaack: His very first post is a vote on HA in #5, and while this is very probably RVS, it does follow a Dunn vote. Maybe not super telling on its own but good to note I think. He puts HA as second-most-likely scum in a readslist in #357 and most of his reasons make sense. He actually votes HA over ira in the next post, and he explains it later by saying that his vote on ira wasn't doing anything. I lean non-partner on this. Very interesting reaction to HA's doc claim in #480, he is indeed the first person to point out that doc is a standard scumclaim and at the same time concedes that it'd be better to leave it be just in case HA is actually the doc. He later gives intent to hammer HA after ira's counterclaim, and then once Robert claims he pushes a kind of pragmatist's approach that favors lynching Robert before HA. I lean town on jaack based on the earlier interactions with HA (probably the biggest piece being him voting HA over ira), but if he is scum then he was in the "scum were trying to save HA" camp.
-Dunnt: Don't really consider Dunn's vote of HA in #4 to be anything. In #129 he leaves HA off a readslist (one of 3 people he leaves off the list). He notes that HA isn't saying much in #162, but votes for Bins instead. Dunn defends HA against floof in #193. Dunn's response to HA in #285 is the kind of catty I don't really expect from scum partners (he calls HA dumb). He votes HA in #365, right after jaack but before floof. He unvotes HA immediately after the doc claim in #483, with the kicker that it "Looks like we're all believing him" -- very similar to jaack's reaction. He's back to HA after ira's counterclaim, and then in #519 suggests that maybe the daytalk is a way of compensating for town having two protective roles. He revotes HA in #553, unvotes HA after Robert's claim and says in #630 that all three could be town. He actually kinda wobbles back and forth on this a bit, saying he still thinks HA is scummy and ira is towny but maybe Robert is telling the truth and they're all town. He says he keeps thinking HA might be town, but then declares intent to hammer and does hammer HA (after zach declares intent to hammer, but earlier than dunn). Up until the HA claim, Dunn looked pretty much not like a partner. But the weirdness around the doc claim opens up the door again imo. Needless to say, if Dunn is a partner then he's in the "scum were trying to save HA" camp.

Spoiler: Robert's claim

-Robert's claim was in #563. After that, the people who voted him were: Jaack (#616) and Tyler (#628).
-So it wasn't really much of a wagon. But more people weighed in on it than voted.
-Jaack is the first player to say Robert is scum in #590.
-Bins poses the question in #591 of whether Robert, ira and HA could all be town. In #598, once Robert seemed to say the PM said "weak" but was describing a macho role, Bins reverses and says Robert might be scum.
-In retrospect, Tyler's #609 doesn't make sense. He said he can't remember the last time he saw scum misread their role PM...which, if Robert is scum, he's fakeclaiming. So it's not like he would be reading a role PM incorrectly...I'm not really sure what to make of this, honestly. Does it suggest scumTyler knowing that Robert is town and therefore not thinking all the way through the scenario of Robert being scum? Is it townTyler just half-baking a thought? I guess it might be weird to see scumTyler working this hard to lynch his partner, HA, instead of townRobert.

Edit from later: Tyler explained this; he was thinking of a fakeclaim.

-Wow, then Bins agrees with it in #612.
-#622 is intentional WIFOM from HA for sure.
-Tyler naked votes Robert in #628.
-Dunn casts doubt on Robert being scum in #629, floof does the same in #631, Zach says he doesn't think Robert is scum in #644.
-Xyzzy and ira come along townreading Robert in #652 and #653.
-Not really understanding Bins' #681. She speculates that Robert could be scum or town and then says "Robert's move, much like irao's, is crazy town."

Edit from later: Bins explained this too.

Conclusions:

-More suspicious of Tyler now.
-More suspicious of floof now.
-Jake is probably town.
-Keyser is probably town.
-Bins is maybe town.

Up next:

-Looking through HA's ISO for interactions.
-Examining the cognitive dissonance I have when considering the possibility of a Tyler-floof/zakk-HA scum team.

[toolenduso]

The line (after zach declares intent to hammer, but earlier than dunn) is confusing to me a bit, you're meaning zach declares intent to hammer after me, but at an earlier time?

No. What I meant was: {you declared intent to hammer} -> {zach declared intent to hammer, but his hammer would come before yours} -> {you hammered}

Do you think tyler would hard bus his mafia partner (floof) as his other partner (h_a) is getting lynched? That seems pretty risky

Yeah that's what I meant when I said I needed to think about the cognitive dissonance that happens when considering the possibility of a Tyler-zakkfloof-HA scum team.

Short answer is that you're right, it does seem very risky. Not unprecedented, but certainly risky.

Which means I need to decide which of them I think looks scummier. Interactions with HA might help clear that up.

"bins is maybe town" not sure where you drew that conclusion from... I do see you talking about bins under the robert section but nothing to indicate they're town

Yeah I actually haven't explained the bins thing much before now because my reasons for thinking she might be town have all been kind of adjacent to the main analyses. I might go into a better explanation later, but it more or less boils down to feeling like Bins has -- a couple of times now -- asked questions that would seem unnecessary or possibly even risky for scum to bring up.

What do you think of xyzzy?

Honestly, not a whole lot as of right now.

[toolenduso]

HA's interactions with...

Dunnstral:

-#268 is HA providing reasons to Dunn for why Keyser might be scum. It seems a little more coordinated than I would expect from two partners...possible, but I lean town.
-The second half of the post is....a little harder to tell. HA is clearly buddying up to Dunn. My first thought rereading this is that HA was trying to drop associatives with Dunn so that if he flipped we would come back and think townDunn was HA's partner. And then it veered immediately into WIFOM territory from there when I realized it could also be HA trying to look too buddy-buddy with his partner for people to ever think they were scumpartners. I'd tend to believe the former (that HA was buddying up to townDunn) over the latter, just based on the different levels of insidiousness and foresight necessarily involved in each scenario.

Robert:

-Says Robert's been inactive and he doesn't have a read on him in #281, but leaves open a door to possibly scumread Robert later. This one could go either way in terms of looking partner-y.
-Suddenly has Robert as a top-two scumread in #392.
-Ah right, and then Jake points out the weirdness about HA's flipflop on Robert, which is that before #392, HA was talking about Robert like he was town and using that to justify another read (on jaack I believe).
-And then in #434 HA talks about mixing up Robert and Zach re: which person he'd asked if they were scum. He says he mixed up games, but bottom line is HA invented reasons to scumread Robert. That suggests HA is not partners with Robert imo. The whole arc looks a lot more like HA being opportunistic scum than it looks like bussing scum.

Bins:

-HA's take in #281 on Bins' #38 is pretty weird. It's like he's saying that regardless of whether Bins looks towny or scummy, she will be scum. Lean not partner on this.

Zachstralkita:

-#265 seems pretty ballsy for a partner-on-partner interaction. I think I'd actually have to give kudos to HA on this one if he's partners with Zach because this just does not seem like a partnery interaction at all.
-HA's reasoning for keeping his vote on Zach in #281 feels forced.
-Yeah he just clearly is trying to come up with reasons to keep his vote on Zach. Feels like HA was treating Zach as a safe haven for his suspicions. Def does not look like partners to me.

Keyser:

-Again, #268 doesn't seem like HA talking about a scum partner to me. A player brings up that they can't justify a scumread on HA's partner and HA volunteers reasoning for why his partner is scum?
-In #394 HA puts Keyser in his top three for scum for a dumb reason. Reminds me a little of how it looked like he was reaching for reasons to scumread Zach actually.

xyzzy:

-Only three mentions of xyzzy in HA's ISO, and two of them are when he's using xyzzy to explain his townread on Dunn.
-The third is in his readslist in #281, and it's an underdeveloped townread on xyzzy.
-This is maybe partner material.

floof:

-And an underdeveloped scumread on floof in that same readslist (#281).
-Literally no other comments on floof throughout the game.
-Also maybe partner material.

Tyler:

-Only real mention of Tyler is in the #281 readslist, and it's a townread...despite the fact that he first points out that he doesn't understand why tyler posted his first post. The townread is for having similar thoughts about the game.
-Also maybe partner material.

Jaack:

-By far the weirdest thing here is HA at first treating Jaack like he's town by looking for scum going after Jaack (#281), then later reversing (#329) and talking about how scum would be more likely to go after Robert's vote (like Jaack did). That's basically the bulk of his interactions with Jaack actually. It seems almost like HA slipped that he wasn't Jaack's partner by first treating Jaack like he was town. Part of that theory has to do with how HA responds to Jake in #422, by repeating what he said in #329 even though it didn't make sense. It's like he was trying to cover up a mistake he'd made, the mistake being that he had forgotten to leave room for the possibility that Jaack was scum.

Jake:

-Gives a somewhat confusing reason for townreading Jake in #281. Other than that, not really a whole lot of any thoughts on Jake. Jake's interactions with HA are far more significant imo.

Looking better: Dunn, Robert, Bins, Zach, Keyser, Jaack

Neutral: Jake

Looking worse: xyzzy, floof/zakk, tyler

[toolenduso]

i can see where he's coming from with the tyler stuff for the most part except ignoring ha isn't exactly fair to say because he was pretty lurktastical

True, he was pretty lowkey for the beginning of the game.

and i did put some attention on floof's initial vote there

Ah, so you did. Noted.

and coming back right around his claim was just a matter of the timing just happening that way

Right, I mean if you're scum that's all you can say and if you're town it's true, so it's not a point that can really be vetted for me.

plus realistically the chances of a robert wagon (or anyone else for that matter) going through were slim to none and i'd have probably played it similarly as scum except i probably don't bother voting robert to try and get him to respond to my question because why bother (which he still hasn't done btw)

I tend to discount reasoning like this just because I think people can be swayed a lot when they're in the moment -- ie, it could seem obvious to a player looking back now that the robert wagon wouldn't go through, but for a scum partner maybe at the time it could seem more possible and therefore appealing.

[toolenduso]

If I were to vote right now I think it'd be for zakk. But atm I feel more inclined to come back to this tomorrow and see if I feel the same way. Either way it'd be worth it to ISO xyzzy, as I'm realizing now that they've kind of flown under my radar.

[toolenduso]

731 (Dunnstral) - I don't understand how this isn't obvious to anyone else; h_a, who was scum, tried arguing that Floof and Bins aren't scum together, and then almost immediately after suggested that they're both scummy, without any other info. I think h_a was trying to avoid saying anything too substantial about anyone, while still trying to make at least 1 scum partner look better.

The problem with this theory, for me, is that I've done literally this exact same thing as scum, but with two town. I get what you're saying, I just don't really find it all that convincing.

I do think that zakk is a solid lynch, but I am a bit concerned with how quickly this push on him developed....

Pretty much the exact concern I've developed. It goes back to what I said about joining wagons with people who look scummy to you -- I'm suspicious of Tyler and xyzzy; both want to lynch zakk. So I have to consider the likelihood that: a) scum are bussing, b) zakk is town or c) I'm totally wrong about who's scum. Will reflect on this more once I'm done catching up.

Would have more fun if people would help me lynch scum but nobody seems to want to

What do you think of HA's interactions with Dunn?

VOTE: DUNNSTRAL

This is confusing. Didn't you come into D2 townreading Dunn?

I replaced it as a favor but I'm not going to just replace into this slot and roll over for a mislynch immediately because you fuckers are lazy

Wasn't this posted before zakk even got a role PM?

Edit from later: Yep, this was before zakk posted in-thread that he didn't get a role PM. Zakk, can you explain?

[toolenduso]

For now, I am going to

VOTE: xyzzy

[toolenduso]

scum bus

a lot

in this meta

Fair.

how would you order your scumreads based just on individual strength, tool?

I'm going to (strategically) only partially answer this right now -- xyzzy and zakk are my top two, you are third. I can be more clear later.

and are they based strictly off of HA interactions or what?

Not strictly, no. HA's interactions are part, voting arcs are part, posting is part.

[toolenduso]

I definitely think Dunnstral's townie claim (which I asked about in 993) is a fairly crucial piece of information given his response to my question about it in 994, and I'm really curious what other people think about it

I am going to deliberately not weigh in on this and suggest that everybody else do the same.

[toolenduso]

Done with one out of three things I want to do, going to do at least one more today.

[toolenduso]

Looks like I got some catching up to do...tomorrow.

Tyler, I'm waiting for input from Keyser and Tool and xy before I place my vote.

I'm two out of three now. Hope to finish it off and catch up and post and stuff tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

He was dodging the game and his only post was a vote on my town read. I think he was just following bandwagons at the time which is scummy. I am pretty confident he will flip scum at this point to be honest.

How could he be following bandwagons when he didn't really join a bandwagon?

The consensus at the time was Jake was scum/null I thought

See this is actually productive. Floof slips up here, and doesn't even realize why he's voting h_a

Not sure I'd call that a slip-up...in #373, floof says she "thinks" HA was following bandwagons. The train of thought seemed to be floof basing reasoning on something she thought she'd seen earlier in the game without going back to double-check. Not the greatest way to go about doing things, but not necessarily a slip.

get a load of zakk fanning the flames of a tvt

My thoughts exactly.

I've been giving bins the benefit of the doubt for a while now. I'm not sure why they think outting who they think is pr is a good idea.

If she's scum trying to out a PR, why say it explicitly in the thread and then say that it's not right? In other words, how does that get the PR to out? It's not like Jake, as a PR, would go "Oh no, you were right I'm a PR."

[toolenduso]

Well you could argue that his "why not just full claim" comment as an attempt to get me to figure out if I'm actually a pr or somebody who's just confident in his reads.

Eh...I just can't really wrap my head around the mindset where somebody would think that would work and get the PR to out themselves or drop a big hint or something.

Also I think you missed this question from me earlier:

Would have more fun if people would help me lynch scum but nobody seems to want to

What do you think of HA's interactions with Dunn?

[toolenduso]

Aight. So. A while ago Tyler asked me what order my scumreads were in, and all I said was that he was third behind xyzzy and zakk.

The reason I did this was because my vote on xyzzy was purely for the purpose of starting a counterwagon, and I didn't want that to influence people's interactions with the wagon. It occurred to me that D2 had been pretty focused on zakk, and I liked the idea of setting up a choice for scum to make between voting xyzzy and voting zakk. Depending on flips, the choices people made could be useful later on.

That being said, I did not expect a sort of mini-wagon on Dunn to get going amid all of it...

Anyway, while I was giving people time to interact with the wagons I decided to go through the ISOs of my top three scumreads, ignoring the interactions with HA (which I've already covered) so I can focus on other parts of their play. Here's that:

Spoiler: xyzzy

-The three posts from #34-#42 are potentially scummy, and people noted it at the time. Xyzzy goes after Dunn in a kind of provocative way, only to keep their vote on Jaack and not really come to a conclusion on Dunn. Xyzzy's explanation in #59 is that the game is still early and they're going to wait to see what Dunn does later in the day. Just seems like it could be scum searching for a good first wagon to build momentum on without wanting to be too central in the push.
-I didn't notice this before, but in #89 (xyzzy's first post-by-post analysis), they talk about at least two of their own posts...a little bizarre, since I would think the point of a post-by-post analysis would be to scumhunt. Adding in a post from themself just seems like filler.
-I noted before that xyzzy's vote on zachstral in #89 was an "easy" vote to make. In #158, xyzzy responds to my point by saying that it's partially just a vote to get Zachstral to talk. The problem with that is that Zachstral had actually been posting quite a bit relative to other players at that point, while floof had only posted once and HA hadn't posted at all.
-The approach to Jake in #174 also bugs me a bit. Jake had naked voted Zachstral, and xyzzy responded by asking Jake about his reasons -- normally might come across as town to me, but xyzzy specified that they were fine with votes on Zachstral. Seems like trying to come across as suspicious while simultaneously trying to keep Jake's vote on Zachstral.
-#286 only adds to that weirdness, because xyzzy says Jake is scum and then says they're going to keep their vote on Zachstral. No mention of the fact that Jake was voting Zachstral, nor the implications for Zachstral's alignment if Jake -- who was voting Zachstral -- was scum.
-Xyzzy agrees with a point from HA that I thought did not make a whole lot of sense in #393.
-The turnaround on HA #447, #561 and #566 does seem kind of...opportunistic, for lack of a better word. It's just that xyzzy didn't pay a ton of attention to HA up until that point, and actually had kept their vote on Zachstral for most of the game. Then when HA gets close to being lynched, Xyzzy reassesses and gets on board with an HA lynch.
-Should be noted that xyzzy comes out against a Robert lynch in #652. If nothing else this tells us that if Xyzzy is scum, scum expected HA to die from the doc claim.
-In #852, xyzzy defends the all-D1 Zachstral vote by saying it seemed more productive than a Jake vote. This doesn't really make a ton of sense to me; I don't remember much of any pressure on Zachstral yesterday.

Overall xyzzy looks worse than I thought. The interactions with HA (from both perspectives) are not good, the posting and voting arcs are a little confusing and possibly event contradictory, and there's a general air of trying not to open themselves up too much.

Spoiler: Floof/zakk

-In #366, Floof unvotes Jaack (she actually got this wrong; she was voting HA at the time and not Jaack) and doesn't revote.
-In #367, she says she is still scumreading HA but doesn't vote. Floof says in #369 that she's waiting to vote, but doesn't say what she's waiting for. Floof votes HA in #373. This was on the same page -- and within a span of about six hours -- as Jaack and Dunn both voted HA. Less than two hours pass between the time Floof says she is going to wait to vote and the time that she votes, and the only posts during that time were insignificant posts from Jake and Dunn. Floof's vote on HA comes as she's explaining her HA scumread to Dunn. This is all pretty weird. What was floof waiting for, and what about it justified her waiting? Why did she then decide not to wait? I am actually wondering if there might have been something going on in scum's daychat that Floof was waiting for, perhaps asking HA about the possibility of bussing or something like that. A more grounded explanation would be that Floof was simply looking around for voting options and decided that HA looked the scummiest (which could explain the behavior regardless of Floof's alignment honestly).
-There's not much else worth commenting on in this ISO that I didn't already cover when I was looking for interactions with HA.
-As zakk, ignoring the posts he made before getting the role pm. In #1013, zakk's catchup post, he sees halfway through that Zulfy announced scum have day talk and he says that maybe scum were coordinating about him posting before he had a role PM. Lean town on this just because it strikes me as a thought process that could be a little hard to reach as scum. As in, "Zulfy says scum have day talk" -> "Oh, as town I wouldn't have known that scum had day talk before I saw that post" -> "As town, I would think that scum would use day talk to coordinate and attack me on my role PM mishap."
-BUT zakk also votes Jaack in that post despite only having read the first four pages of the game. This is a red flag for me. It signals that he is trying to avoid suspicion by looking like he's scumhunting and using his vote, as opposed to genuinely trying to figure out who's scum. It's also something I saw AP do the last time I played with him (Circus Mafia, AP was scum). It was pretty much the only scummy thing I thought AP did in that game until Zulfy got a pseudo-guilty on AP.
-The reasoning in #1017 kind of backs up that idea of scumZakk being overeager to look like he's scumhunting. The reasoning here for Dunn is kind of shallow (Dunn is perhaps a little prone to making lynchbait-type posts) and therefore it looks like Zakk is just looking for the first scummy stuff he can find to pick on.

This slot still looks super scummy, and I don't like zakk trying to get a Dunn wagon going either.

Spoiler: Tyler

-So not only does Tyler vote xyzzy first (non-RVS) in #46, but then he goes on to argue against possible counterwagons in Jaack and Robert in #54 and #61. Which is to say that, while I find the Tyler-HA interactions to be suspicious, he has now consistently gone after both xyzzy and zakk, who I've both found scummier than him anyway, and he bussed HA on top of it. Double bussing is much tougher for me to buy than single bussing.
-Meanwhile, the hopping from xyzzy to ira in #108/109 feels kinda towny to me just based on experience...that is, I've seen town take this approach to scumhunting before, where you kind of just prod the first person who looks scummy to you to get out of RVS, then they do something mildly towny and you're off to the next person to pressure them. It's one of those things that

can

look scummy, and therefore I give minor townpoints to Tyler for doing it anyway because it suggests a genuine scumhunting mindset.
-#536 should be noted I think for flip purposes. Tyler, after setting up floof as a possible lynch if HA flips scum, suddenly finds a post from floof he likes. If Tyler were scum and floof was town, it wouldn't make a whole lot of sense for Tyler to set up a mislynch and then immediately go back and water it down.

Probably the biggest thing here is that Tyler's voted for HA, floof/zakk and xyzzy. That is tough for me to reconcile with him being scum. His ISO also gave me some townfeels.

VOTE: zakk

[toolenduso]

Catching up, need to start again on p55

slightly spooked how quickly xy's wagon vanished

Well, I did invent it just to have a counterwagon...

Has anyone even made a case on zakk? I swear I haven't seen a single convincing peice of evidence on him plus he basically stayed on ha's wagon all day. I've seen hard core bussing before and this didn't even look like it to me.

The vote on HA came on the same page as two other people hopped on HA at once, it came after both those people and it happened as people were starting to question floof.

[toolenduso]

Well, I did invent it just to have a counterwagon...

(This might be confusing. I did scumread xyzzy but my main reason for voting them was to start a counterwagon)

[toolenduso]

but {floof} was already voting ha before that. he unvoted thinking he was voting somebody else which is weird but he was really the first to vote ha. I think that was the vote that dunn came to ha's defense while at the same time threw some mud on him to make sure it didn't look like a defense.

Right, and floof's original vote on HA was to get him to talk more. Which I thought was weird, because why would floof specifically want to get HA to talk more when HA wasn't the only one not posting much? So I asked floof about it, and she never responded.

And I think the "unvote" of jaack explains why floof would keep her vote on scumbuddyHA.

See {floof} voted HA and then dunn soft defends ha and actually throws mud on both ha and floof... This makes dunn look bad given ha's flip

I mean, yeah, I get your point. I hope we get a scumflip out of the floof/zakk/desmond(?) slot and then dunn will look more town to you, but for now my thought on it is basically this. It could be soft defending or it could be questioning floof. I see it more as questioning floof.

[toolenduso]

Vote:zakk

...whoah.

[toolenduso]

If he flips town I hope everyone will at least reconsider their read on dunn.

That is fair.

On the self-vote...I'm thinking like this:

-Desmond is scum and gambiting (unlikely, given that he just replaced in and zulfy had not provided an updated votecount by the time Desmond self-voted, so unless Desmond had gone back and made sure he wasn't at L-1, he could have self-hammered)
-Desmond is scum and wasn't paying much attention....which is what happened with his predecessor zakk, re: not noticing that he didn't have a role pm...
-Desmond is town and wasn't paying much attention...which is what happened with predecessor zakk.

Which is to say that it probably doesn't mean much because it could happen as town or scum.

[toolenduso]

As long as we're waiting on a Keyser replacement I suppose it would be a good time to examine whatever Dunn and bins are talking about. It occurs to me that my read on that slot has been based a lot on a couple of posts.

[toolenduso]

Also I just wanted to point out that this was a sick burn, even if you are scum

Also, I have been playing mafia since you were a twinkle in your mother's eye. I know, I was there.

[toolenduso]

Xyzzy looks worst to me. The problem is that now I don't have a strong second candidate for scum. I kinda want to revisit what Bins was saying about Keyser.

[toolenduso]

I....what?

It doesn't make sense for scumDunn to claim cop right now, because unless town had no investigatives it would mean he was signing his own death warrant. Because we've had a protective flip already, so town would start to question why Dunn wasn't being NK'd.

And it REALLY doesn't make sense for scumJake to CC, only to give an inno on Dunn.

Like.

[toolenduso]

I mean the only thing I could think of right now that would make sense is that scum agreed that Dunn would kamikaze gambit to out the town pr. But then why Dunn, it's not like he was super in danger of being lynched.

Has town ever had two cops in a mini normal before? It sounds extremely unlikely to me but I will check.

[toolenduso]

Not seeing any town games with two cops in the mini normal archives but depending on Jake's modifier that could maybe change things...

[toolenduso]

Gambiting does not make sense to me right now. Not from town. I don't see what the point would be and I don't understand why you'd both be keeping it up if one of you was gambiting town.

And Jake being macho doesn't open up any more room for town to have a second cop.

[toolenduso]

That was an obvious joke as I led the lynch, you're really going to grasp at everything

What? How on earth was that a joke?

[toolenduso]

That was an obvious joke as I led the lynch, you're really going to grasp at everything

What? How on earth was that a joke?

Because I basically spearheaded the lynch all of day 1 and jake was hard scum reading me

sorry sorry I thought you were saying your townread on Robert was a joke, not the thing about jake.

[toolenduso]

OK yeah the logic here means Dunn is very probably town. Didn't get it at first, now I do. We can talk more about the merits of the gambit in postgame, but for now I think that'd just clog up the thread more, and we have basically two replacements who need to catch up right now -- one of them not even in the game yet.

Jake, I think you know you're being stubborn right now, and town needs you to be practical instead. We're at a place right now where town can more or less PoE -- we have a very good shot at winning.

Xyzzy's post re: trying to figure out Dunn...

might

be town. The qualm I'm having with it is that it looked like xyzzy was confused, not that they knew what dunn was getting it.

Jaack looks like a good candidate for scum on first glance. I'll check it out more.

[toolenduso]

look, if this is about teaching the kid a lesson so that he never does stupid shit like this as town again, then yea, we've got a couple mislynches to burn and there's no way for me to argue that

Bad idea for town. We have a pool of clears and our advantage is in keeping as many people in that pool as possible.

[toolenduso]

Also I looked back at what Dunn and Bins were talking about re: Keyserslot. Especially seeing which players we've narrowed things down to, I can buy the narrative of a daychat-planned bus between partners. The slot isn't at the top of my list atm, but let's remember my tool from earlier -- if we find the second scum, we can use their actions re: HA's claim to find the third scum.

[toolenduso]

I can't see the town motivation either, in the sense that it's not something I'd do. I think we're more or less in the same boat in that regard, since you said you hate gambiting.

But what matters is whether townDunn could see a reason to do it. And I think he could. It doesn't make sense to me, but other people do things that don't make sense to me all the time.

Something's gotta give, when you consider what has to be true in order for Dunn to be scum or town. In order for him to be scum, he has to be a godfather and he has to have somehow thought that it was a better play to gambit and out the cop, risking his own life in the process, than for him to ride a fake cop clear to victory.

If he's town, he needed to believe in weird logic.

[toolenduso]

bins feels town was actually gonna vote her coming into today but don't really remember why

Doesn't her claim basically clear her?

Okay, so you don't understand why he would do what he did if he is scum, but you also don't understand why he did what he did if he is town.

How does that make him town?

I explained that with my "something's gotta give" argument.

VOTE: Dunnstral

This "no GF would do that" argument is terrible.

Interesting, and noted.

Creature, have you caught up? And what pronoun do you actually prefer? Your profile says "it," but I figured that was a joke to go along with your username.

[toolenduso]

It doesn't clear me. I think I look pretty town now because of my claim + my synergy with both Macho and BG. Why do you think I'm cleared?

The synergy is one part. But the main thing is why on earth would scum fakeclaim -- and fakeclaim voyeur of all roles -- right as two cop claims are arguing with each other? Like, what's the endgame there? To get one of the claims lynched? And if so, why not then try to get Dunn lynched?

And

she crumbed?

That seems like pretty strong evidence to me.

Also, yeah, Creature could be scum too. I'm just wondering if scum would both push on Dunn right now.

[toolenduso]

You just highlighted random letters. I mean, I believe your claim, but that's not a worthwhile crumb at all.

No, it's super hard to just find something you can call a crumb in your early posts if you didn't intentionally put it there. I've actually tried that as scum before, going back to my early posts and seeing if there's anything that can possibly work as a crumb. I couldn't find anything. And look at her use of "ur" instead of "your."

I guess we don't really have to wait for a replacement for the Robert slot since it's essentially clear. I'm not entirely sure of which to go for between Jaack and Creature; both are bad and I came up with reasons to townread both when I was looking at HA interactions.

[toolenduso]

This post is so condemning that Jaack scum would have to be horribly unaware of how much this post would fuck him over.

What do you mean? Because Jaack was going after Robert?

[toolenduso]

Bad idea for town. We have a pool of clears and our advantage is in keeping as many people in that pool as possible.

no shit?

Sorry -- was this post not you suggesting that we could afford to lynch Dunn just to appease Jake?

[toolenduso]

Vote analysis, good idea. I want to do it a little more comprehensive than that though.

[toolenduso]

I was gonna do a comprehensive VCA and then I realized just how many votecounts there were. Tyler's approach of selective VCA is better, although I am still not understanding why xyzzy having more voters unflipped makes them town.

Did a quick little alt-view of the votes instead:

Spoiler: Individual votes

-Keyser/Creature: Jaack (55),

HA

(297),

Dunn

(1865)
-xyzzy: Jaack (7),

Zachstral

(89),

zakk

(852)
-Tyler: xyzzy (46),

ira

(109),

Robert

(628),

HA

(670),

zakk

(737), xyzzy (1308), jaack (1803)
-Jaack:

HA

(5),

Robert

(13),

ira

(66),

HA

(358),

ira

(480),

Robert

(616),

HA

(673),

Robert

(708), xyzzy (1011),

zakk

(1217), xyzzy (1322),

Desmond

(1517), xyzzy (1620),

Dunn

(1700)

One thing I do note is just how little voting Keyser did in this game. And how low-activity he was too. That does go against what I remember of his town game, and Creature's entrance today fits scum very well. I am thinking atm that if Creature flips scum then Jaack would be less likely to be partner -- in which case I think I'd be looking at xyzzy based on PoE.

(that's because of the scum-acting-together idea I had wrt to HA's claim -- Keyserslot voted HA without hesitation after HA's claim and didn't go for Robert, whereas Tyler did go for Robert. Ergo, Creature/Tyler is not as likely a scumteam as Creature/Xyzzy)

And somebody (think it was tyler) made a good point about Jaack's ballsiness throughout the game. He's gone for basically everything it would be convenient for scum to go for -- Robert after he made one bad post to open the game, Robert again when he messed up his macho claim, Dunn when he gambited. It seems a little brazen for scum, and while I can see scum doing it...well, it goes back to what I talked about at the beginning of the game, where there was this feeling that scum just wasn't doing a whole lot. It'd make sense for scum to have a lot of low-key players, and Jaack hasn't been low-key.

So basically the more I think about it the more I think Creature is a good lynch today.

VOTE: Creature

That's L-2

[toolenduso]

No no I don't think anyone is saying that

I quoted this earlier;

...

No, I saw that. That I understand. Tyler is saying something about players who are still alive making up most of xyzzy's wagon:

des and xy shared votes with more unflipped peeps like jaack/tool/myself and dunn if you want to count his very open willingness to vote that way if it came down to it

this makes me think that, save for some bussing (with regards to jaack specifically who carried over his vote into today) that it makes xy more likely town

...and I'm not following the logic.

I don't think both scum needed to "act together" to bus h_a when robert was still a possible lynch

I think they would, though. They have daychat, so for something like HA claiming doc they would have discussed that in their chat. There'd be a plan for it, and it would have been in place before Robert claimed. It would either be "we're going to out town's protectives and bus HA" or "we're going to have HA claim protective to save him."

I mean I know it's speculative but it seems pretty likely to me.

[toolenduso]

why do you think jaack keyser is an unlikely pair?

Less likely than Keyser/Xyzzy anyway. And it's because both slots are going after Dunn right now. I just question whether both remaining scum would do that.

[toolenduso]

keyser is scum it holds significantly less weight now that ive been thinking about it

And if the Keyser slot is town?

[toolenduso]

Less likely than Keyser/Xyzzy anyway.

why

because both slots are going after Dunn right now. I just question whether both remaining scum would do that.

like you guys see my dilemma right? there's bussing going on no matter what; but xy has been a common and consistent recipient of it, if scum, which makes them a low priority for me at the moment

Is that what you're talking about with the whole "unflipped people voting xyzzy" thing?

[toolenduso]

i swear i laid out my thoughts a touch more succinctly earlier

All I saw was 1903. What I get out of that is:

People who are still alive ("unflipped") voted xyzzy -> ____ -> xyzzy is probably town.

I'm missing the blank. It has something do with people bussing xyzzy.

Are you saying that:

because several still-unflipped players voted xyzzy -> scum is probably among those unflipped players -> so if xyzzy is scum then those unflipped players were bussing

...?

[toolenduso]

K I think I get your logic now Tyler. I don't find it all that convincing but I get it, and mainly I just wanted it explained publicly.

creature have you read the game in full because it doesn't really seem like you have tbh

Yeah, it does seem that way. Which makes this post:

I noticed you were gambiting, but I find it hard to come from a town!you.

...confusing. It looks like he's saying he knew that Dunn was gambiting, but for some reason still asked people if they think Dunn could be cop.

I also realized something else about this from Dunn:

Looks like xyzzy definitely suspected that I was cop with an inno on robert from the bolded part. That's why I think they could actually be town here

...if scum had an investigative role and checked you N1, they could have known you weren't an investigative. So then scum could have still kept you alive N2 even if they picked up on your cop/VT thing.

[toolenduso]

you have something quoted in post 1937 that i didn't even say tool

Yeah, weird. That post was by Creature. No idea how you wound up in there.

Low-activity isn't very accurate, he could be busy or just not in a good mood to play mafia game. Seeing he stated he would replace out if he didn't finish his post

I mean, yeah, possibly. Or it could be that he, like some people on this site, just doesn't like playing scum very much or feels awkward doing it and so he didn't post much. I haven't done a meta dive or anything, but I do know it's different than what I know of his town game.

Would like to see that game.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=63716

and Creature's entrance today fits scum very well.

How did you reach to that conclusion?

You came in and hopped on Dunn, who was lynchbait but there were two other people willing to vote Dunn so not like you'd be autolynched for it. Then you doubtcast on Bins' claim and set up Jaack as a possible lynch despite him also voting Dunn.

I am thinking atm that if Creature flips scum then Jaack would be less likely to be partner -- in which case I think I'd be looking at xyzzy based on PoE.

And if I don't?

Probably jaack.

[toolenduso]

Because of bins being on me I can know I was for sure not roleblocked, so it would have to be an investigative role there instead

That was my thinking of jaack being suspicious if that were true

Not sure what you mean, why would that make jaack suspicious?

[toolenduso]

and if creatures scum he did a bang up job on not reading the scum chat

like how did you literally miss everyone's claims?

Not sure how willing I am to believe this. Creature didn't replace in until the beginning of the day phase, and a lot of stuff happened at once. Entirely probable to me that details could get lost in the midst of that.

Tyler, why xyzzy and not Jaack?

[toolenduso]

All right. Finished up ISO'ing the lynch pool, have some thoughts. Want to wait to hear from Tyler first and then will post.

[toolenduso]

are you seriously still considering me scum? just curious

The way I see it right now is that you're in a pool of four people where two are scum. I have you fourth out of the four, but still.

To narrow it down further, I think there's one scum in {Xyzzy/Tyler} and one in {Creature, Jaack}. That's why I feel pretty confident town is going to win right now.

So, here's my ISO notes:

Jaack:

-#13 was an opportunistic vote on Robert.
-#66 is Jaack switching to ira without dropping his scumread on Robert, and right as Keyser is pressuring Jaack for his Robert vote.
-#221 is a bit of a reach with his reasoning for why I look scummy -- nothing in the game had really been all that "popular" at the time. I remember because the game was moving so slowly and it took longer than usual to see any kind of real wagon with momentum.
-Jaack's decision to vote HA over ira in #358 continues to strike me as being not partner-y. There wasn't really a pressing need to bus HA at the moment, and he had been pressuring ira for a while. This vote, in fact, sparked two more down the same page. Thinking about this in comparison to the way Keyser voted HA, I am thinking this looks less like a partner bussing than Keyser's did.
-I can let go of the fact that Jaack backed off HA following the doc claim while simultaneously doubtcasting the doc claim. That could go either way. But the going after Robert, and then continuing to go after Robert the next day, is something scum would do in that situation.
-Thinking some more about it, I don't think Jaack's logic in #635 makes sense. He gives two reasons for thinking Robert is the best person to lynch first. The first reason is that Robert could be scum with ira or with HA. I point out that it really wouldn't make sense for Robert to be scum with ira, and Jaack kinda sorta backs down on that point, but then brings out argument number two. Which is that if all three are town, Robert is the best to have die by a town mislynch. Which actually doesn't make a ton of sense to me. If we lynch Robert, then what happens is that scum have to kill ira because they'd assume ira would protect docHA. So HA's target that night wouldn't even matter. Whereas if we mislynched HA, scum would still kill ira. Either way it's the same outcome, but Jaack's using it like it's proof we need to lynch Robert first. And now we have an investigative clear on Robert, a townflip from ira and HA flipped scum.
-#1217 looks bad too. After spending a good chunk of the day arguing for why zakk isn't a good lynch, Jaack votes zakk on the grounds that "it's better to have a vote on a wagon than not." Why, exactly? His other read was xyzzy, and it's not like xyzzy was being widely townread or something.
-Dunn vote in #1700 comes at an opportunistic moment. The continued arguing for why Dunn is scum actually strikes me as being possibly town...just based on the grounds that it was clearly not the popular trend and it would have been easier for scum to just back off and go "oh yeah guess I was wrong." I'm not totally convinced of this one, but it's my gut feeling on it.
-Doubtcasting on Bins' claim is bad.

Keyser:

-OK, Keyser's unvote of Jaack in #205 is actually a little weird now that I look back on it with fresher eyes. Keyser had already stopped scumreading Jaack a while ago, and since then had just been kind of talking with other players and asking them questions. But he waits until now to unvote Jaack, and he doesn't have anybody else to put his vote on? Just seems sorta self-conscious.
-The reaction to ira in #295 is a little aggressive/defensive.
-#297 is where Keyser responds to HA and votes him, and suddenly a possibility comes to mind which I have no idea how I never thought of it before. What if it was HA bussing Keyser and not Keyser bussing HA? As in, Keyser had just come under pressure from ira and Dunn had already stated his "sneaking suspicion that Keyser was scum." What if HA decided it was time to distance himself from Keyser in case Keyser wound up being the day's lynch? This is making sense to me right now. Given the lack of wagoning that happened before this on D1, it could make sense that scum would wind up going for each other instead.
-The three-part takedown of HA's entire ISO beginning in #912 does seem a little excessive. It's like Keyser was looking for any evidence he could to show why HA was scum. Overeager, perhaps.
-Creature's contributions are much fresher in my mind and I've already summarized my thoughts on them so I'm going to skip them for this analysis.

Xyzzy:

-Again, Xyzzy responding to their own posts in #89 makes it seem like the post-by-post analysis is just filler on show to look like they're doing work. And again, the Zachstral vote was an easy one to make.
-Don't like xyzzy questioning ira but then softening the blow of it by saying they don't necessarily disagree in #158. Comes across, again, like they're trying to do work but lack conviction in it.
-Same deal when questioning Jake's vote of Zachstral in #174.
-#447 and #561 is Xyzzy coming back and, after not doing much of anything with HA up until that point, deciding to go back and reread HA's ISO. Then Xyzzy comes back with a scumread on HA. This is all happening with HA at L-1 -- this is a scummy-looking turnaround.
-Xyzzy didn't go for Robert after the macho claim in #652, noted.
-Xyzzy being happy about Tyler not dying in #698 seems like it might be a like "hey look I didn't know who was going to die!" moment. Like trying to sound ignorant.
-It kinda looks even worse in the context of #852. The reason xyzzy said they were happy Tyler was alive was because they were curious about a post Tyler made D1 saying to lynch Xyzzy or floof on D2. Then, after bringing up that post (could be an attempt to get some momentum going on the floof slot), Xyzzy votes for zakk.
-#1626 is more of xyzzy explicitly stating something to show that they didn't know what the night kill was going to be.
-I'm also a little leery of xyzzy saying in #2001 that Robert's claim "probably" makes him town. I should think it's the closest thing to a guarantee that Jake is town that we could get short of him being an innocent child. It just kind of seems like xyzzy is taking pains to be careful and cover all their bases, especially since they previously were talking about believing Bins' claim, which came after Jake's claim.

Tyler:

-I think I noted before that #505 looked like trying to set up another lynch based on a lynch that hadn't happened yet. Now we know that HA was scum and floof was town. I guess the thing I want to highlight here is the timing of this post, it happens as Tyler comes back right amid HA's doc claim and ira's CC, and it's his fourth post since all that happened. It just seems a little out of order, perhaps, since Tyler hadn't committed at that point to saying whether he thought we should lynch HA or ira. It's perhaps like he was trying to get out ahead of HA's scumflip, basically.
-And again, it has to be noted that Tyler switched to Robert in #628 after initially arguing against a Robert lynch despite the macho claim. Tyler leaving a door open to lynch HA in #646 doesn't help either, but I do concede that it makes sense from a town pov as well (if Robert was scum at that point then HA was certainly scum too).
-The combo of feeling "spooked" about how fast the wagon on xyzzy disappeared combined with the "im bored" vote on xyzzy in #1308 does seem town to me now that we know the zakk slot was town. Just because if Tyler was scum this would just mean that he worked against a mislynch he had essentially been pushing since the end of D1, and one that looked likely to go through.
-Some minor townpoints for standing up and saying dunn was town in #1731.

At this point, Tyler's hopped around between Jaack, Xyzzy and Creature. Coupled with his "I've been towntelling post," I am getting townfeels from him.

And there are a couple things making me lean town on Jaack as well -- some very scummy-looking things to be sure, but some towny things as well. One is the post from HA I highlighted before where it looked like he was treating Jaack as town, and another is Jaack choosing to vote HA over ira.

Xyzzy and Creature both continue to look like scum. Of the two, Creature looks bad whereas there's a possibility Xyzzy is just not that active and that's contributing to the scumfeels I've been getting on them. Vote stays on Creature.

[toolenduso]

I'm traveling today and just realized I'm probably gonna hit some gnarly traffic on the way home, so....gonna try to give some input tomorrow. But one thing I want to get out of the way right now...

@Dunn: If you think Jaack/Creature is the scumteam, can you address the fact that they're both going after you right now? In other words, why do you think both scum would do that under these circumstances?

[toolenduso]

Looks like xyzzy definitely suspected that I was cop with an inno on robert from the bolded part. That's why I think they could actually be town here

Was this ever addressed?

Yep, here.

1. Creature didn't realize mafia had day talk when he came in (he's shown that he doesn't really pay attention to things so this is possible. There's also the fact that keyser wasn't very active and may not have been talking all that much with his partner)

I mean, I just don't think it's very likely that a person replacing into a scum slot would go straight to the thread and start doing stuff -- especially voting, right after town had a bunch of clears or basically-clears happen -- without ever checking out their scum chat first.

2. They're going all out trying to get me lynched today and then try to throw suspicion between tool/tyler for the endgame (which we have been seeing.) This would need them to get Robert's replacement to vote me and one more person, but I'm not seeing the one more person and they can just coast back and watch Jake try to convince TOF without doing anything themselves

Yeah that's part of why I'm thinking it's not them together -- where's all the support for the Dunn lynch? I would think for both scum to hop on they'd want to see enough support for it to go through, and I don't know that that support existed/exists.

3. The mafia don't know what they're doing and just turned on me trying to get me lynched but didn't expect resistance

Of the three, this is the one I find most convincing. But I remember the timing of it all happening in such a way that I thought it would be weird for Creature to hop on to the wagon if he was scum buddies with Jaack.

The way that jaack and creature interact with bins - or ignore her sometimes is just so weird in my mind as it feels like they're kind of just not talking to her, and throwing very poor suspicion towards her.

Any specific examples you can point to?

[toolenduso]

Umm you left Dunn off your list. He's confirmed scum so it can be one scum in xy/Tyler & one in creature/jaack. Did you mean or?

I assume you're being cheeky, but to be clear here Dunn is in my pool of town clears. I don't see him doing what he did as a godfather.

Jaack is like third on my list of lynch priorities today, I'd rather do Creature or xyzzy. I'm thinking there is something to glean here from the fact that wagons have shifted between Creature, Jaack and xyzzy ever since Dunn's retraction, but I'm not quite sure what it is yet other than that I lean townTyler as a result.

[toolenduso]

What about my post 2064? Isn't that strange?

My first reaction to it was that it seemed like you were misunderstanding what Jaack was saying, but honestly when we get two or three posts removed from what somebody was originally talking about I start having a hard time understanding what people are saying (I think oftentimes it has to do with people's use of words like "that"). So I may benefit from going back over it and trying to understand it more clearly.

[toolenduso]

OK yeah I looked back at it and I don't really understand what you were getting at. The first post was Jaack saying he didn't think you, as scum, would push so hard on a weak slot (desmond). The second post was him saying that you were pushing desmond D2 instead of xyzzy, and therefore it would make sense for you to be xyzzy's partner.

I don't think he was calling your push on desmond scummy in the second post.

[toolenduso]

Which makes me wonder why Jaack is acting like he did change his mind in #2069.

[toolenduso]

OK, but what did you change your mind about wrt the quotes Dunn pulled? That's what I don't understand.

[toolenduso]

OK, and what about your thoughts on Dunn's push on the fzd (desmond) slot D2? Has that changed?

[toolenduso]

Jake I don't know what to tell you. It doesn't make sense to me that a godfather, anticipating being cleared by the cop, would decide to gambit like that. It seems to insidious to me. Maybe if we were talking about Mastin or something. But we aren't.

And you really think scumBins would fakeclaim along with her partner scumDunn?

I'd just like to note the gamestate right now for later. Dunn has been wagoned by more or less the same group all day long, and the others have been circulating between Jaack, Creature and Xyzzy. The people circulating between those people refuse to vote Dunn, and the Dunn wagon (if you include Robert/TOF) is one shy of a lynch.

[toolenduso]

I feel like we've already been over this. Jake doesn't want to move past Dunn, he's said he's not going to move past him and I'm pretty sure no matter what anyone says he's not going to change his mind.

Creature and Jaack are both candidates for scum.

So that leaves TOF. Who sounds like he wants to lynch Dunn. So, TOF, let's talk. Why would a scum godfather, who was sure the cop was going to investigate him, preemptively claim cop rather than just wait for the cop to out the result and ride to victory on the inno result?

[toolenduso]

Why did your read on Jaack change and what happend to your scum read on xy?

Still scumreading xyzzy, and my read on Jaack has not changed. I'm not saying I'm scumreading Jaack, I'm saying he's a candidate for scum. Because he's in a pool of four players where I think two are scum. So even though I think it's probably xyzzy and Creature, I'm not discounting the possibility of Tyler and Jaack.

Or, more succinctly, one of {creature, jaack} and one of {xyzzy, tyler}.

[toolenduso]

You had jaack as 3rd and now it seems he's moved up and xy moved down.

Nope.

And sorry, but I don't think there's a reason to keep talking about the Dunn thing with you. You're not going to change your mind. Nothing against you, I just think you're wrong and I don't like posting about the same stuff when it doesn't matter. I'll talk with TOF about it.

And I'm now realizing that with TOF leaning toward Dunn I think xyzzy is the only person widely scumread enough to get lynched today. And there is utility in lynching xyzzy before Creature because if xyzzy flips scum then I think we could move on from the possibility of Tyler being scum. Whereas if we were to lynch Creature and he flipped scum, I would not want to lynch Jaack but other people still would.

VOTE: xyzzy

[toolenduso]

Have you read tool's posts he's been saying the maf team probably isn't both you and creature so it certainly will

Yeah but I don't know that I've seen anyone else agree with me on it.

Still need one more vote, not sure where it's going to come from

I'm still holding out for TOF.

Speaking of which, TOF, look at the people voting for xyzzy right now:

Votecount 3.05

Xyzzy (L-1)

: Bins, Tyler, Toolenduso, Dunnstral[/b]

It's a good wagon.

[toolenduso]

Why is it a good wagon?

I'm on it. Dunn's on it and I consider him basically clear. Bins is on it and I consider her basically clear. Tyler's the only question mark, and I'd still believe he's town before Creature or Jaack.

Nobody has answered my question either.

It's been answered, you just don't believe the answer.

[toolenduso]

Can somebody posts some reasons why xy is scum? I can't seem to find them in the posts where the votes were made.

Here:

HA's interactions with...

(snip)

xyzzy:

-Only three mentions of xyzzy in HA's ISO, and two of them are when he's using xyzzy to explain his townread on Dunn.
-The third is in his readslist in #281, and it's an underdeveloped townread on xyzzy.
-This is maybe partner material.

Spoiler: xyzzy

-The three posts from #34-#42 are potentially scummy, and people noted it at the time. Xyzzy goes after Dunn in a kind of provocative way, only to keep their vote on Jaack and not really come to a conclusion on Dunn. Xyzzy's explanation in #59 is that the game is still early and they're going to wait to see what Dunn does later in the day. Just seems like it could be scum searching for a good first wagon to build momentum on without wanting to be too central in the push.
-I didn't notice this before, but in #89 (xyzzy's first post-by-post analysis), they talk about at least two of their own posts...a little bizarre, since I would think the point of a post-by-post analysis would be to scumhunt. Adding in a post from themself just seems like filler.
-I noted before that xyzzy's vote on zachstral in #89 was an "easy" vote to make. In #158, xyzzy responds to my point by saying that it's partially just a vote to get Zachstral to talk. The problem with that is that Zachstral had actually been posting quite a bit relative to other players at that point, while floof had only posted once and HA hadn't posted at all.
-The approach to Jake in #174 also bugs me a bit. Jake had naked voted Zachstral, and xyzzy responded by asking Jake about his reasons -- normally might come across as town to me, but xyzzy specified that they were fine with votes on Zachstral. Seems like trying to come across as suspicious while simultaneously trying to keep Jake's vote on Zachstral.
-#286 only adds to that weirdness, because xyzzy says Jake is scum and then says they're going to keep their vote on Zachstral. No mention of the fact that Jake was voting Zachstral, nor the implications for Zachstral's alignment if Jake -- who was voting Zachstral -- was scum.
-Xyzzy agrees with a point from HA that I thought did not make a whole lot of sense in #393.
-The turnaround on HA #447, #561 and #566 does seem kind of...opportunistic, for lack of a better word. It's just that xyzzy didn't pay a ton of attention to HA up until that point, and actually had kept their vote on Zachstral for most of the game. Then when HA gets close to being lynched, Xyzzy reassesses and gets on board with an HA lynch.
-Should be noted that xyzzy comes out against a Robert lynch in #652. If nothing else this tells us that if Xyzzy is scum, scum expected HA to die from the doc claim.
-In #852, xyzzy defends the all-D1 Zachstral vote by saying it seemed more productive than a Jake vote. This doesn't really make a ton of sense to me; I don't remember much of any pressure on Zachstral yesterday.

Overall xyzzy looks worse than I thought. The interactions with HA (from both perspectives) are not good, the posting and voting arcs are a little confusing and possibly event contradictory, and there's a general air of trying not to open themselves up too much.

To narrow it down further, I think there's one scum in {Xyzzy/Tyler} and one in {Creature, Jaack}.

(snip)

Xyzzy:

-Again, Xyzzy responding to their own posts in #89 makes it seem like the post-by-post analysis is just filler on show to look like they're doing work. And again, the Zachstral vote was an easy one to make.
-Don't like xyzzy questioning ira but then softening the blow of it by saying they don't necessarily disagree in #158. Comes across, again, like they're trying to do work but lack conviction in it.
-Same deal when questioning Jake's vote of Zachstral in #174.
-#447 and #561 is Xyzzy coming back and, after not doing much of anything with HA up until that point, deciding to go back and reread HA's ISO. Then Xyzzy comes back with a scumread on HA. This is all happening with HA at L-1 -- this is a scummy-looking turnaround.
-Xyzzy didn't go for Robert after the macho claim in #652, noted.
-Xyzzy being happy about Tyler not dying in #698 seems like it might be a like "hey look I didn't know who was going to die!" moment. Like trying to sound ignorant.
-It kinda looks even worse in the context of #852. The reason xyzzy said they were happy Tyler was alive was because they were curious about a post Tyler made D1 saying to lynch Xyzzy or floof on D2. Then, after bringing up that post (could be an attempt to get some momentum going on the floof slot), Xyzzy votes for zakk.
-#1626 is more of xyzzy explicitly stating something to show that they didn't know what the night kill was going to be.
-I'm also a little leery of xyzzy saying in #2001 that Robert's claim "probably" makes him town. I should think it's the closest thing to a guarantee that Jake is town that we could get short of him being an innocent child. It just kind of seems like xyzzy is taking pains to be careful and cover all their bases, especially since they previously were talking about believing Bins' claim, which came after Jake's claim.

[toolenduso]

I'll

uneventfully

claim if anyone would like me to.

I mean, you basically just did.

[toolenduso]

Also, I disagree that the people on the xyz's wagons makes it good. His scumminess should be what makes it good, but he seems more like he's just not engaged with the game. Could he be town? Absolutely. Scum? Sure. But I don't know if I'd say his recent behavior is particularly indicative other than a "fuck this" attitude. Could just be busy with life or whatever.

It's his scumminess

and

the people on his wagon that make it a good lynch. And if xyzzy's

recent

behavior is what's giving you pause, I would direct you to the post I just posted in response to Jake where I rounded up all my notes on xyzzy throughout the game. That will give you a better idea of what xyzzy's been doing throughout the game, a handy reference guide of key posts to look at in their iso and some perspective on how xyzzy's play fits in with HA, the only flipped scum we have to look at.

Plus, I want jake's question's answered before end of day.

Fine. I will go through all the questions Jake posted and round up all the responses that have already been written to them. For your sake.

But when I'm done I am going to ask you some questions as well, and I want you to answer them. Deal?

[toolenduso]

It's

their

scumminess

and

the people on

their

wagon that make it a good lynch.

Corrected.

[toolenduso]

Question from Jake:

Still want a logical explanation as to why Dunn didn't retract right away vs waiting until he was caught in a lie to retract. Anyone?

Response:

I continued with the gambit because I still thought we'd both be cleared, albeit vying for cop position. I thought it likely that I would have been chosen as the mafia kill over Jake.

Question from Jake:

You guys seem to have issue justifying his cc as town behavior but not the attempt to discredit me. How was that town motivated? How is it not scum motivated.

Response:

But what matters is whether townDunn could see a reason to do it. And I think he could. It doesn't make sense to me, but other people do things that don't make sense to me all the time.

Something's gotta give, when you consider what has to be true in order for Dunn to be scum or town. In order for him to be scum, he has to be a godfather and he has to have somehow thought that it was a better play to gambit and out the cop, risking his own life in the process, than for him to ride a fake cop clear to victory.

If he's town, he needed to believe in weird logic.

Question from Jake:

Let's play devil's advocate. What if I didn't have a result on him. What would your reaction to his actions be?

Response:

All right this one I have not personally responded to, so here's my answer:

1) This does not matter, because Jake

did

get a result on Dunn. A hypothetical theory about a situation that

did not happen

is not going to tell us anything about the situation that

did actually happen.

But, you wanted answers to all of Jake's questions, so...
2) I'd probably be more suspicious of Dunn. My townread on him now is based on the fact that if he's scum he'd have to be a godfather.

Question from Jake:

Well you've got to be lying because I'm cop and godfather is blacklisted in normal games anyway, which is why I'm not voting you right now

Jake I don't understand why you're going full rambo but I'm not going to let you get lynched, obviously, just stop with the fakeclaim already?

Are you serious

Why would I fake claim cop with two innos as mafia

I'm real cop, jake is doing some weird gambit thing right now and doesn't actually expect me to get lynched

jaack I ask you again - are you really scum reading me?

I'm a Voyeur
I'm going to claim cause I'm useless now

I targeted Robert N1 and yeah he got investigated
I targeted Dunn N2 and yeah he got investigated

So either Dunn is GF or Jake is scum investigative
Have fun someone figure this out

LOL

Ok I retract. And I'll explain what I was doing before you psychopaths jumped on me

Please tell me how the all this comes from a person who says they knew I was the cop...

Responses:

Basically, yes I noticed that jake was town cop day 1. I hinted that I knew/threw in some softs to potentially distract mafia who may have noticed (bins noticed for sure so it was there)
You can go back and hunt my iso for that stuff if you want, it's there and I even say something to bins once I realize she's noticed.

After that, Zach's kill was weird to me. Day start I intentionally tried to provoke Jake to see if he'd open up by voting me. I had already realized that I would be the likely cop check, especially since he was saying things like "you haven't seen me deathtunnel" day 1. He didn't vote me and even said something about reevaluating the game.

At that point I claimed cop. My main purpose here was to get the reports out (knowing myself to be inno and cleared, I'd have cleared robert which I softed day 1, and later on jake for day 2.) I'd then have been killed the next day, and jake would have had another report to work with
Everything went according to plan. Except jake cc'd me

even though he has an inno report on me

???

I continued with the gambit because I still thought we'd both be cleared, albeit vying for cop position. I thought it likely that I would have been chosen as the mafia kill over Jake.

But what matters is whether townDunn could see a reason to do it. And I think he could. It doesn't make sense to me, but other people do things that don't make sense to me all the time.

Something's gotta give, when you consider what has to be true in order for Dunn to be scum or town. In order for him to be scum, he has to be a godfather and he has to have somehow thought that it was a better play to gambit and out the cop, risking his own life in the process, than for him to ride a fake cop clear to victory.

If he's town, he needed to believe in weird logic.

[toolenduso]

Now, TOF, I have done what you asked. Please do what I ask and answer these questions:

1) Have you read the entirety of D3 -- essentially, Dunn's claim, the retraction and the aftermath? If not, I will post a summary for you that will explain why we should not lynch Dunn.
2) Who are your top three picks for today's lynch, in order?
3) Do you agree that if Dunn is town, Jaack and Creature are likely not on the same scumteam (because it's unlikely both scum would try to lynch the easy mislynch like that without having enough town support to make the lynch actually happen)?
4) What do you think of xyzzy?

[toolenduso]

Shit sorry Jake. Best wishes.

I'm not sure if Creature is more likely to happen than xyzzy. Things might change with Jake's replacement, who knows.

VOTE: Creature

I might take a closer look at what xyzzy and TOF wrote, like later. I am pretty buzzed rn now tbh.

[toolenduso]

Well, I was hoping to get TOF on board with a xyzzy lynch (or Creature, now that we've switched to that), which would be nice because then we could have a lot of confirmed or near-confirmed players on the lynch, and hence hopefully avoid WIFOMing later on. If Dunn and Jaack are his top two, and he has read up today, that makes me a little pessimistic that it can happen. Pretty sure I've said all I can say on the Dunn matter, and so have other people.

Of course it's possible a Jake replacement could change things, but it would be shitty for anyone to replace into that slot because it's probably just going to die tonight anyway. It'd be like a public service replace-in.

@TOF: What about Creature, could you lynch that slot?

[toolenduso]

Also,

Please remember that Dunn has to at least be lynched before mylo/lylo

Can anybody explain this thought? Is it only true if you think Dunn is scum?

[toolenduso]

VOTE: xyzzy

Pretty likely this is it.

I have two big reasons to think the last scum is xyzzy:

1. The "scum coordinated on HA's claim" theory. Basically, since we know scum have day talk, I believe that they would have talked about HA's doc claim before he claimed. And since that's likely, it meant scum would have had a strategy. The strategy would have either revolved around expecting HA to live after the claim or expecting HA to get lynched after the claim. And again, because of day talk, I believe the other two scum would both adopt the same approach to HA's claim. Keyser/Creature reacted to HA's claim by immediately distrusting it, pushing to lynch the slot even harder than before, arguing for why ira's counterclaim was town and then continuing to push for HA's lynch even after Robert's macho VT claim. That means scum expected HA to get lynched. Tyler and Jaack both jumped on Robert as a possible lynch after his claim, while xyzzy continued to push for HA's lynch. Therefore, xyzzy looks the most like a partner working in tandem with the Keyser slot.
2. Creature's push on Dunn. This was done in tandem with Jaack. I don't think scum would both push on Dunn together the way that those two did. There was not a whole lot of town willpower to lynch Dunn, and it was obviously a risky play. Dunn's retraction meant, essentially, that town had just finished a quadruple play by all-but-clearing Jake, Robertslot, Bins and Dunn. In those circumstances, it would be very bullheaded for both remaining scum to work together on a risky lynch that would look awful if Dunn flipped town. This is basically an argument for Jaack being town more than it is for xyzzy being scum, but eliminating Jaack means that the only two options left are Tyler and xyzzy, and of those two xyzzy looks overall much, much scummier (see my previous summary of notes for TOF in #2183).

I started doing some work during the night to kinda check this and make sure I wasn't missing anything, but I only got halfway through. I'll post that next.

[toolenduso]

These are the interactions that Keyser and Creature had with each of these players.

Jaack:

-Keyser's first post in #55 has a vote for jaack. I can see this coming from a partner, especially now that we know Keyser was bussing the hell out of HA.
-Keyser lets go of the Jaack scumread pretty quickly, saying he looks more like paranoid town by #81. Again, possible for a partner trying to distance early.
-OK, so #297 reminded me that HA's (fake) suspicion of Keyser, as well as Keyser's subsequent vote on HA, were largely over Keyser's vote on Jaack. So that means that if Jaack is the third partner, all three scum focused on each other early in the game and decided to bus like crazy. I mean....maybe. But it seems a little far-fetched to me that scum would actually plan to enter the game that way.
-In #1868, Creature's fourth post, he says Jaack's pushes have been "pretty terrible." He lists Jaack as one possible scum of three possibilities in #1973, and his last post (#2227) asks people to lynch Dunn or Jaack the next day phase. All pretty much null.

Tyler:

-Keyser kinda buddies up to Tyler in #58, sorta like he did to me on D1 as well.
-Other than that, his discussions with Tyler are largely clinical (answering questions, talking about game theory, etc).
-Creature says Tyler's motivations look good in #1868.
-Very much nothing going on here. Small hint of non-partner feel from Keyser buddying up to Tyler.

xyzzy:

-Keyser says xyzzy's early posts look like forced scumhunting in #58. His reasoning is basically a mimic of what Tyler said in #50.
-He turns around his read on xyzzy in #204, for basically no reason. Mainly he says it was their catch-up post, which seemed more "natural and expressive." I did not get this from xyzzy's catch-up.
-He does it with another one of xyzzy's catch-up posts in #343, and then kinda tells xyzzy what they should do.
-Creature gives a vague town-lean-type read on xyzzy in #1868, says he sees xyzzy as town without explanation in #1933.
-Then in #2198, he is suddenly saying xyzzy is probable scum. He doesn't explain it and I have no idea where it comes from.
-Most of this is even more evidence for xyzzy being scum imo.

Next, unless we can just lynch xyzzy now, I want to go through the interactions each of these slots had with Creature/Keyser.

[toolenduso]

We basically need to decide that Dunn is town or else lynch him today.

Well, consider this. On top of the reasoning for Dunn being town that we already had (why would a godfather gambit if they knew they were cleared by the cop?), we now have something else to throw on top of it: Dunn led the charge at the end of the last day phase to lynch Creature, who flipped scum.

Which, if Dunn is the last scum, why would he bus his partner when xyzzy was already on the table as a lynch option, AND most people remaining were already treating Dunn like town?

btw, odds of 4 scum? Low? I'm thinking low.

Pretty sure the only time I've seen 4 scum in a mini normal (or theme, for that matter) was when there were two scum factions, and there are clearly not two scum factions in this game.

would I have put Creature at L-1 and then not move my vote once the wagon on him almost completely dried up if I was his scum partner? I doubt very much that I would've done so. me being scum forces Creature and me to have been bussing each other to a really extreme degree yesterday.

You and Creature were the two wagons most likely to go through yesterday. So yes, it would make sense for you to bus each other under those conditions.

Still working on reverse interaction ISO readthroughs.

[toolenduso]

Interactions that the remaining scum possibilities have had with the keyser/creature slot:

Jaack

-Starts off with an unexplained townread on Keyser in #66, which continues through #127. In #357 he has Keyser as his number one townread and says it's because Keyser has a similar train of thought to him. My gut leans town on this because the default for scum is to want to not look connected to their partners.
-Suspicion of the slot starts in #1620 after Creature replaces in.
-But he comes out and says he doesn't like the creature lynch in #2005.
-#2164 is kind of a weird post. It's Jaack's brainstorm on lynching between {creature, Jaack and Dunn}, and he actually more or less concludes by saying that town should lynch him (Jaack). He says in his post that Creature's flip wouldn't give anybody info on his own alignment...which, now that we've seen a scumflip from Creature, does look a little odd. Like it almost looks like Jaack is trying to preempt town's suspicion of him once Creature flips scum, but he doesn't want to lynch Creature.
-Comes in in #2219 to say he has no major problem with lynching Creature because it will give info. Also says xyzzy is more likely to flip scum, then in his next post (#2229), Jaack says he would lynch Creature first over xyzzy (while still saying we should lynch Dunn before either of them).
-It's interesting that Jaack's entrance to D4 was to say that xyzzy doesn't look as much like scum since Creature's flip. I can only imagine xyzzy would be the best mislynch option for scumJaack.

Tyler:

-Like I said when going through Keyser's ISO, there was a lot of "clinical" discussion going on between these two early game. I'm a little torn on #303 though, where Tyler asks Keyser about one of his points on HA being scum. It just feels like a non-partner thing for Tyler to do (talk to one scum partner about why he's bussing the third), but at the same time Tyler is clearly a competent player so it's not like it's hard to imagine him doing this as scum, sort of an atmospheric hey-look-im-not-partners-with-these-two-teehee thing. Idk. I feel like it comes out as a small townpoint for Tyler.
-Tyler says Keyser's approach to HA doesn't look like partners in #753, and I know he did this several more times later on as well. It needs to be noted, but then, I thought the exact same thing that Tyler did around that time, so.
-After Creature replaces in, Tyler does a look back at a VC in #1894 and comes to the conclusion that Keyser bussing HA might actually make sense. Says Creature is probscum in #1869.
-Waffles around a lot on Creature after that. In #2095 he puts Creature as his third preference for lynching. Says he'll hammer Creature in #2226.

Xyzzy:

-#89, xyzzy's first post-by-post analysis, includes a non-opinion on Keyser. Basically that they liked a post but don't have any conclusions from it. Seems like filler (which I've already noted in other aspects of that post and others that xyzzy's written).
-The note toward Dunn at the end of #89 actually strikes me as non-partnery. Xyzzy asks Dunn to let them know if Dunn's read on Keyser changes. Kind of a too-obvious vibe from this one.
-I think I've noted xyzzy's soft questioning in #158 before, but it's more significant now that we have a scumflip from the Keyser slot. Xyzzy was kind of trying to question ira over ira's vote on Keyser, but then xyzzy said that they don't disagree entirely. That's the kind of leaving-open-a-back-door I expect from a scum partner.
-In #393, xyzzy switches and says ira looks worse than Keyser.
-Says Keyser is probtown in #852.
-In #1959, says Creature's early posting looks bad but gives the slot a pass because xyzzy was townreading Keyser.
-In their next post (#2001), xyzzy turns around and says Creature looks worst by PoE, but they don't feel too strongly that Creature is scum because of Keyser's play, oh and Jake is probably town, and xyzzy trusts the people voting Creature so they'll vote Creature. This all looks like manufacturing reasoning to me.
-#2269 is WIFOM and totally fits a narrative where xyzzy was bussing. Like I can see the conversation in the scum thread now: "Are we fucked?" "Yeah probably. Maybe if you bus me you can still win." "OK I'm gonna bus you and you keep pushing Dunn and maybe there'll be enough support for a Dunn lynch. And if you get lynched I'll just argue that I bussed you so I can't be scum."

[toolenduso]

Why xyz over Jaack?

Here are two reasons:

1. The "scum coordinated on HA's claim" theory. Basically, since we know scum have day talk, I believe that they would have talked about HA's doc claim before he claimed. And since that's likely, it meant scum would have had a strategy. The strategy would have either revolved around expecting HA to live after the claim or expecting HA to get lynched after the claim. And again, because of day talk, I believe the other two scum would both adopt the same approach to HA's claim. Keyser/Creature reacted to HA's claim by immediately distrusting it, pushing to lynch the slot even harder than before, arguing for why ira's counterclaim was town and then continuing to push for HA's lynch even after Robert's macho VT claim. That means scum expected HA to get lynched. Tyler and Jaack both jumped on Robert as a possible lynch after his claim, while xyzzy continued to push for HA's lynch. Therefore, xyzzy looks the most like a partner working in tandem with the Keyser slot.
2. Creature's push on Dunn. This was done in tandem with Jaack. I don't think scum would both push on Dunn together the way that those two did. There was not a whole lot of town willpower to lynch Dunn, and it was obviously a risky play. Dunn's retraction meant, essentially, that town had just finished a quadruple play by all-but-clearing Jake, Robertslot, Bins and Dunn. In those circumstances, it would be very bullheaded for both remaining scum to work together on a risky lynch that would look awful if Dunn flipped town. This is basically an argument for Jaack being town more than it is for xyzzy being scum, but eliminating Jaack means that the only two options left are Tyler and xyzzy, and of those two xyzzy looks overall much, much scummier (see my previous summary of notes for TOF in #2183).

There are also a couple in my last post looking at xyzzy's interactions with the Keyser/Creature slot. Bins more or less said my thoughts on Creature's turnaround on xyzzy yesterday, and my last post looks at xyzzy's turnaround on Creature.

[toolenduso]

Oh OK I didn't realize that was what Dunn was saying.

That...kind of makes sense. I don't know if it makes more sense than all the stuff I've found about xyzzy though.

[toolenduso]

Well I was thinking a little more about what you and Tyler were saying about Jaack's lack of a scumread on xyzzy and I realized that it could just as likely be that townJaack is being cautious/responding to changes in the gamestate. His reasoning doesn't make a ton of sense to me, but then neither has a lot of his other reasoning on stuff like Rob's claim and your gambit.

[toolenduso]

Idk. I mean, we're in a pretty good place since we are (almost certainly) down to the last scum. We could afford a mislynch. It's just that I think xyzzy makes a lot of sense as the last scum and I feel like I've been running out of steam on this game. So I'd rather just end the game.

[toolenduso]

i mean playing into GF paranoia is one of scums very few plays to make right now so im not all too surprised

I mean, I agree, but why say it now if Jaack is the only scum left? As in, why say something he doesn't really need to say until later when he's at L-1?

[toolenduso]

OK, well if we're going to take our time then I can answer Jaack's and Tyler's points either later today or tomorrow.

But before I do that I would like to ask people what it was about xyzzy's #2327 that they found convincing.

And I would also like to hear Tyler's response to this post.

[toolenduso]

OK, a lot to talk about. Let's start with this:

and only a scumrobot wouldn't be swayed whatsoever by xy's post last page there too

First off, read these three posts and try to tell me scum don't do this all the time.

Second, what about being scum would make a person less willing to sympathize with another player, especially if they know that they're town and telling the truth with their AtE?

[toolenduso]

comparatively jaack has a narrower sight and doesn't seem as sure of himself; might be town who's been wrong on a lot of reads this game and trying to put the pieces back together where things started to fall apart... or he's the last scum alive with no hope of winning and talking about GF paranoia (which after thinking about it kinda adds up with his monstrosity of a case on robert earlier) - tool is very much this

fake

hard tunnel of xy and then broadened in the background in the form of jaack and myself... which is the easier path the prance down here, not sure that means scum because his points on xy do look okay; but not beyond the capability for scum to fake

The word "fake" here is an implication of certainty, is it not?

[toolenduso]

meh, it's just like

why does it seem like he goes out of his way to talk about ha to keyser and keyser to ha so goddamn much

Maybe because it was the most significant thing happening in the game during D1? Did you forget that we basically couldn't get a real wagon going for most of the day?

225 look at how many words it takes him to explain his "snowball townread" to keyser - very fluffed up - compare that to the rest of the interactions in that post - concise - to the fucking point

Of course that response was going to be longer than the other ones. When I was talking with Keyser it was about game theory, with the other two I was doing much simpler things.

When I need more words, I use more words. Look at #161 and #634, for example.

278 what prompts this dialogue? tool didn't have a townread on keyser.

I felt I had something tangible to offer. I'd played in a game with townKeyser not that long ago and knew that his posting style tends to draw suspicion early in the game. I didn't want him getting lynched for that when I knew he did it as town. Turns out I was wrong.

282 "not a whole lot to work with so far" is weird considering he has loads of shit to say about ira. you guys remember ira right? he's comparable to the quiet kid that sits in the back in math class
keyser posted more readable content - far more

Either you're misremembering things or we have very different ideas of what "readable content" looks like. Up until that point Keyser had been basically puffing around, asking a question here and there, offering the type of early-game observations that don't amount to much, and posting GIFs. Just the one vote on Jaack I believe. None of it looked all that weird or out of place, and it wasn't until later that Keyser started pushing ira or HA. Whereas ira had some inconsistencies and weirdness early on.

315 it's probably null that it was a continued dialogue because tool this game has been good with follow up on everything - very good - but again with the making sure that it's known that it "doesn't necessarily make keyser town"

if that's town trying to make sure that people in the game aren't reading people for silly reasons then tool's read on keyser is mostly irrelevant to the conversation right?

I'm confused by the last question. Why was my read on Keyser irrelevant, and what does that have to do with your reading of the post?

I'll reiterate that the reason I posted that is because I had what I considered useful meta on Keyser. But it wasn't the "they only do this as town and never as scum" type, it was the "I know they do this as town and have no clue if they do it as scum" type.

[toolenduso]

People of varying confirmation:
Dunn

Sorry, I'm not totally clear on your thoughts on Dunn right now, and this only further confuses it for me. Yesterday you pushed Dunn all day. How do you feel about Dunn now? And why do you mark Dunn as being of "variable confirmation" here?

Wait now I remember.

When did you first start researching this/thinking that I might be scum?

I found it notable that of xyzzy, tool, and tyler, the only one to be open to lynching both of the other two D3 was tool. I mean, he wasn't really endorsing a tyler lynch at all, but he was setting it up for the future, following an xyzzy townflip, which he would shortly be pushing.

So why do you think it's more likely that scum (me, in this case) would keep options open on a player they weren't planning on lynching that day (tyler), as opposed to scum (tyler, in this case) just pushing between an already broad pool of choices, especially when their scummy-looking partner was in play (creature), and waiting until further down the line to start pushing the other player (tool)?

[toolenduso]

I have some thoughts on this current push, but I want to hear answers before I post them.

UNVOTE:

[toolenduso]

his writing in those last few posts feels a lot more aggressive/defensive than he previously was

There's good reason for that, xyzzy.

[toolenduso]

Go on

it feels desperate

It makes some sense to me, in a weird way, that it came across as a little desperate. But it's more shock than anything else. I'll explain more after we hear from Tyler.

[toolenduso]

V/LA until Thursday.

I'm traveling for work, and I will be able to post during that time but I'm just not sure how sporadic its going to be.

[toolenduso]

Well I wanted to hear from Tyler, but it looks like people want the day to be over and I'm not sure when I'll have time to post again, so here we go.

The reason I was shocked at Tyler's case is because it made me think I was completely wrong about this game. Here's why:

1. His case clearly relies on reaches in logic.
2. Some of the wording indicates that he was sure of me not being scum. Not suspecting, or paranoid, as he had been before, but somehow had suddenly become

sure

of it.
3. I saw no reason for townTyler to suddenly drop his suspicions of xyzzy -- which have existed since the beginning of the game -- or of Jaack, and suddenly start scumreading me.
4. If Tyler is scum, he is putting himself in an excellent position to win the game by lynching me.

Before Tyler's case, town was basically deciding between Jaack and xyzzy for today's lynch. ScumTyler would look at that and see this scenario playing out:

Town lynches xyzzy today --> Jaack tomorrow --> then he has to convince town to lynch me in 3p LyLo

Therefore, laying down a case on me early would be a crucial step for scumTyler winning the game. It would put him in the exact position he would need to be in, which would be lynching xyzzy and then Jaack (in any order) and then getting the last remaining town to vote me so he could hammer for the win.

And if he could get me lynched today, it would be even better for him. Because who would really think to lynch Tyler over Jaack or xyzzy if I was out of the picture?

In short, if Tyler is scum then I think I was the biggest obstacle between him and victory because I was the least-suspected of the remaining town.

That was all what I thought at first upon seeing Tyler's case.

One of the first things that started bugging me about the scumTyler scenario was why he would wait until halfway through the day phase to pull out his case on me. Why not just come into today swinging at me? That would make more sense to me.

What

really

messes it up is that xyzzy is actually pushing me now as well. And that looks awfully good for scumXyzzy as well, because if xyzzy is the last scum then they would at this point be clawing for life. Xyzzy's suspicion of me essentially rides the coattails of Tyler's case, and in fact the post where they voted me looks pretty bad.

Look at what they said: That lynching either me or Jaack would provide info. Not that one or either of us looks like scum, but that lynching us would provide info. It just looks to me like self-consciousness of the need to justify their vote to town -- not to mention that it leaves a back door open for the next most likely lynch option not named xyzzy.

Another problem with a scenario where Tyler is scum is that it contradicts my theory about scum approaching HA's claim in the same way. That's part of why I was so taken aback when Tyler first posted his case and I started really thinking he might be the last scum. Now that xyzzy's jumped back in, well, I'm not sure. I'm still pretty wary of Tyler, but perhaps he really did just happen to go back in my ISO and psych himself into thinking I was scum.

Since we are approaching deadline...

VOTE: xyzzy

[toolenduso]

@tool-did you have any thoughts on my participation in the growing suspicion of you?

Ack you just reminded me I forgot to go over some stuff in that post...

I found your kind-of acceptance of Tyler's case suspicious too. That was actually part of why I found it so likely that Tyler was scum; what's the likelihood that the two town members of the {not clear} group would both turn around on me? Probably not high, and so I reasoned that either of you could be scum. I found Tyler more likely (and more alarming) for the reasons I listed in my last post.

But then your ultimate response wasn't to vote me or try to rally a wagon against me, it was to go back and do more research on Tyler, and to continue not thinking of xyzzy as a lynch option. Whereas xyzzy's response was to vote me.

[toolenduso]

A couple things, Ircher:

-The only claim to be aware of at this point is Bins, and you know hers.
-Jaack posted his Tyler stuff toward the end of the last day phase. Should be among the last few posts in his ISO.
-We've had two scum flip goon and Zulfy just confirmed that there's only one scum left, so the last is almost certainly some kind of PR, though we haven't really had anything happen with night actions to indicate what it might be. It won't be an encryptor because Zulfy said at the beginning of the game that scum have daychat.
-HA was pretty obvscum for many reasons by the time he was lynched. Even the people who hopped off his wagon after he claimed doc hopped back on later because he was so scummy.

Also, what was it about the Dunn night kill that points toward Jaack?

[toolenduso]

All right, so my thoughts after xyzzy flipped town.

I'm at the point now where I'm going to have to reassess some of the stuff I was using before to narrow down choices. Obviously I was wrong about one of my theories, because the fact that Creature was pushing Dunn along with Jaack made me think Jaack wasn't scum, and the fact that Keyser reacted to HA's doc claim by bussing him like crazy made me think that Tyler wasn't scum (because he kinda moved in the other direction after HA's claim). Interestingly, Jaack also took Tyler's approach after HA's claim -- but in a slightly different way. While Tyler was kind of assessing the situation, Jaack came in and said that doc claim is a standard for scum under pressure. In the same post, he votes for ira and reasons that we shouldn't be lynching a doc claim.

Between the two, I think Jaack looks worse, because it seems like he actually could have been trying to take Keyser's approach of bussing HA, but then hedged his bets a little more. Tyler's response to the whole thing...I mean, I can see scumminess in it, but parts of it also look like the kind of thing scum would be a little more conscious about. Like in #505 saying that he'll be looking at floof if HA flips scum. It's kind of blatantly setting up another lynch before the flip, I don't know if a player like Tyler would really do that.

Compared with that, I can see where Jaack's posts around the time could be more strategic.

Looking back over the rest of my notes on the two, I am remembering why I've been reading Tyler as town for so much of this game...after the floof set-up for example, he didn't follow through and push the slot. There have been a lot of small things, basically.

And conversely there have been a lot of small things with Jaack that have made him look worse. The vote on Robert at the very beginning of the game, for example. Or the time he voted zakk after arguing against a zakk lynch and gave the reasoning that it's better to be on a wagon. Tyler makes a good point about Jaack's reasoning for voting xyzzy.

Yeah. I am definitely leaning Jaack for last scum. No need to rush, though. I'm going camping this weekend but I'll hopefully still have some time to go back through some stuff that's happened a little more thoroughly.

[toolenduso]

No, the last one must be goon since I'm macho, Voyeurs are weak, the BG was like 1-Shot and macho cop really isn't a problem.

Eh, maybe you're right. I'm pretty sure it'd be the first mini normal I saw where scum didn't have any PRs, but I guess it could happen. At any rate it probably doesn't matter since scum PRs don't appear to have affected the game at this point.

I mean I guess the only way it would matter is if scum had a godfather, and that's not likely. Especially now that Dunn is gone. Your slot is the only other one Jake got a result on, and there are other circumstances that make it very unlikely you're town.

[toolenduso]

*unlikely you're scum

[toolenduso]

Got prodded. Just back from a camping trip. Will post tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

Stuff like this kind of made me start to doubt myself a little bit toward the end of last week:

But I can see I'm pretty dead today anyway, so this is mostly for posterity.

Just because it violates the whole ethos of the last remaining scum who has to stay alive in order to win. So I thought about it a little more while out camping, and I realized it actually makes sense for scumJaack. Especially in the context of the last day phase, where Jaack originally was pushing for either me or Tyler to be the day's lynch instead of xyzzy. In this situation scumJaack has very few options, and needs to pursue those options in the least scummy-looking way possible. So he deliberately goes the exact opposite way scum would go (xyzzy was the easy lynch, so Jaack insists that it isn't xyzzy). He gets an assist when Tyler brings out a case against me, but he hung back without voting me to see what other players would do. Xyzzy comes out against me, and voila -- Jaack has an excuse to go after xyzzy

and

enough town players to get the mislynch through.

Lines like the one I quoted above are also, I think, part of the tactic. He's doing the stuff he knows goes against the grain of textbook scum. That's kind of an inelegant explanation but yeah.

I do want to give some attention to the NKs.

[toolenduso]

Spoiler: Dunn kill

A post in Dunn's ISO reminded me of this:

Don't sleep on the possibility that TOF is actually a godfather.

If TOF ends up in lylo its certainly something to consider

This could partially explain last night's NK insomuch as it explains why Dunn died instead of the TOF slot.

Whereas Tyler said right away he didn't think TOF was a godfather:

i mean playing into GF paranoia is one of scums very few plays to make right now so im not all too surprised

TOF has looked pretty town regardless - that's something you forgot to mention

TOF himself had Jaack as most likely scum:

If I picked an order right now (dunno if we'd lose at 2 mislynches? I think 3rd is a loss, but I can't math. Too tired)

Jaack
Xyz
Tool
is my order.

Dunn laid out his thoughts on scum relatively clearly before he died:

For the record I'm positive that Bins is town.

I actually feel pretty good about tyler too, and was feeling good about tool

Think it's still in xyzzy/jaack

So with xyzzy getting lynched, Jaack was next on Dunn's list.

Bins has been less clear, but this post definitely made it look like xyzzy and Jaack were her top two:

Part of me wants to say that I believe Jaack's reaction more than I do xy's now but ugh.

So if Jaack is scum, he basically had three more-or-less clear townies to choose from for the NK, and all three thought he was scum. But he had his "TOF might be a godfather" theory, so thought TOF could be useful to have around for LyLo. No clear reason I see to choose Dunn over Bins, but I suppose that's reason enough -- could've been a coin flip choice for all I know.

If Tyler is scum, he'd see a bunch of clear townies who didn't suspect him. In that case it actually might have made more sense for him to go for Bins instead of Dunn, since Dunn seemed to think I looked more like scum than Tyler, while Bins straight up said she'd vote for Tyler instead of me if it came down to LyLo. I mean that could go into WIFOM territory pretty quickly, but the scumJaack explanation for why Dunn died is much more straightforward here. Occam's razor says Jaack.

The kill before that one is Jake, and the reason why Jake died is obvious.

Spoiler: Zachstral kill

This kill was a little surprising. I can only imagine that scum didn't suspect Jake as the cop, or Bins as the voyeur. I also suppose they probably thought there was still room for the Robertslot (later TOF) to be lynched, and so they didn't want to eliminate that slot.

That actually points toward scumJaack as well -- Jaack kept pushing for Robert after Robert's claim, and then continued the push into D2.

Tyler was one of the people who voted Rob after Rob's claim, but the difference is that Tyler didn't keep pushing it. Tyler said, I think 200 posts or so before Zachstral's NK, that he was warming up to the idea of Robert being town (here).

On who might have suspected that Jake was an investigative, I don't see anything in Tyler's ISO (post-Jake's claim) to indicate that he caught on about Jake. Don't see any indication of that in Jaack's ISO either. So nothing to go on there.

Zachstral's reads are a little harder to look at as evidence for why scum would want to kill him. Zachstral made sarcastic votes, joked a lot and generally bounced around the game unpredictably. His last few posts showed he was townreading the Desmond slot (previously zakk and floof, here) and that he was on board with a lynch of either Dunn or xyzzy (here). Both have now flipped town. I went back a ways in the Zachstral ISO (not all the way through) and didn't see much clear indication of what his reads were other than that.

Lean Jaack on this one too, just because the Zachstral kill makes a little more sense if you think about it in terms of somebody who wanted to keep Robert alive.

Yep. I'm ready to do this.

VOTE: Jaack

[toolenduso]

I'm sorry, but this is totally wifom. I must be scum because I'm acting exactly opposite how scum would act.

If I'm going to speculate about your intentions, some of it is going to end up being "but would he really do that as scum, or would he not do it because he would know that I would know he would do it as scum, so then he would do it because he'd know he'd be safe," etc, etc. It's actually kind of inevitable, and so you have to draw the line somewhere.

I try to draw that line by asking whether there's any other evidence to support it. In this case, there is.

Why would I, as scum

As soon as I see somebody say this, I start getting paranoid that they had this explanation ready at the time of the action. But I'll bite.

The reason you'd go for one of Tyler or me over xyzzy is because you have to think about the endgame and not just what's in front of you. Xyzzy was what was in front of you.

Furthermore, I didn't push Robert at all going into d3, I pushed xyzzy in my opening post.

Ah you're right, I mixed up the timing there. That leaves me p much clueless as to the reasoning behind the Zachstral kill.

Dunn kill still points your way imo.

[toolenduso]

here's an idea - we lynch between tyler and tool today

that way we either probably win OR tyler doesn't need to most likely get mislynched by bins in lylo

I am really not sure what to make of this. I can see both sides of it, I guess. The town explanation relies on Tyler being very sure I'm scum, which is why it would be justified for him to try to "skip" a day phase by going to what he thinks is going to be LyLo. Scum explanation would simply be that he thinks he has a better chance in LyLo against Jaack than he would against me. Which is probably true.

The thing that keeps sticking for me is how Tyler became so sure that I'm scum. I don't see it.

It looks like you are trying to convince yourself that I am scum because you already know I'm not.

No, I'm considering both sides as I make my decision -- why you would do X thing if you were scum or if you were town. Counterintuitive stuff like the line I was talking about were part of why I thought it was xyzzy and not you yesterday. But xyzzy has now been eliminated as a possibility, as have several other people I thought were scum instead of you, and so I know that I've been wrong about things. So I have to look at the reasons why I thought you and Tyler were both town and check them again. It's easier to find scum explanations for your actions than it is for Tyler's actions.

Anyway, you were an equally available lynch at the time. Had I voted for you, with TOF MIA, there likely would not have been enough support for an xyzzy lynch.

Yeah but the difference is that my lynch was far less certain. Xyzzy'd been pushed for virtually the entire game up until that point. If you had hopped on my wagon then (iirc) there still would have been a question mark as to who would hammer.

Every possible nk would 'point my way' because all the conftown had me as their most likely living candidate.

I acknowledged that the three non-lynchable townies all suspected you. The reason I thought the Dunn kill pointed to you, specifically, was because you were the one arguing that TOF should be a lynch option in LyLo.

For Tool, he in the matter of 4 VCs makes some switches D3.

First, he's on the Creature wagon then he switches to Xyzzy then he switches back to Creature in 3.09.

Unlike the rest of you, I can see a town reason for the 2nd switch since 3.10 was the hammer (meaning deadline was probably closing in), but I'd still like to know the reasons for this behavior.

My reasoning for switching from Creature to xyzzy is in #2146, and my reasoning for switching back to Creature is in #2220. To sum it up here:

-Based on theories I had that largely came out of the Dunn-fakeclaiming-cop situation, I believed there was one scum between Jaack and Creature and one scum between xyzzy and Tyler. In other words, I didn't see a Jaack/Creature scumteam or a xyzzy/Tyler scumteam.
-Of those, Creature and Xyzzy were my top two picks. So I spent the day going back and forth between them.
-One reason for switching between the two of them had to do with which wagons looked like they actually had enough support to go through that day.

[toolenduso]

I still think Jaack looks worse than Tyler. Ircher why do you want Tyler over Jaack today?

[toolenduso]

Well, will you lynch

Dunn

or Jaack tomorrow?

Totally WIFOM I'm bringing up here, but what's the possibility the other is scum?

Creature was on the verge of being lynched at the time, so I could definitely see a partner doing some last-minute hard distancing in that context.

In case xyzzy is town and I die tonight, you should lynch jaack then tool in that order

....

So, back to this game, we have the above quote from Dunn. If Tyler is scum, then killing Dun over me is 100% the better move.

Why was lynching Dunn the better move for Tyler?

[toolenduso]

Oh wait I think I get it now. You're saying Tyler killed Dunn

because

Dunn had Tyler at the bottom of his scum list? Like to throw people off his trail?

I mean, maybe. But like I said, Occam's razor.

[toolenduso]

Welp, that solves my question as to whether it was possible that Bins could even possibly be scum.

VOTE: Tyler

I'll start working.

[toolenduso]

I don't really know where to begin, I guess. I've been wrong about so much stuff. Pretty much every time I've looked at Tyler as a scum possibility vs somebody else, I've come away from it thinking Tyler was town.

One thing I know has been happening now is that Tyler has definitely been looking for ways to remove me from the game for a while. I don't know if he was trying to get me out before LyLo or just getting ready to get me lynched in LyLo, but I can see where Tyler was planning to get me lynched at some point. Just going back a ways through his ISO:

paranoid of tool a bit but meh, cross that bridge when we get there

i slightly dislike tool being quick to jump on but that's mostly meh

...

jaack or tool/creature?

He had a bunch of posts around then where, in addition to those posts, he was also making little arguments for me being town. Seems like he must have been feeling out what he could and couldn't attack me on. Later he switched to really arguing I was scum:

Hi toolenduso! I was overjoyed to see your name on the player-list.

"see your name on the playerlist"

that line creeps me out

dunn, do me a favor

iso tool - look at keyser interactions

meh, it's just like

why does it seem like he goes out of his way to talk about ha to keyser and keyser to ha so goddamn much

....and then pretty much from that point on he seemed to be very convinced I was scum. I actually noticed it when he first laid out a case on me, but I convinced myself I was wrong. He was using wording that implied certainty I was scum, as opposed to suspicion. I'll bold that wording:

tool is very much this

fake

hard tunnel of xy and then broadened in the background in the form of jaack and myself

And that stands out against his tone in other posts around that time:

yea, i think ive talked myself into it enough

vote:tool

The fact he wanted to 1v1 me yesterday said a lot too. It would only make sense for townTyler to 1v1 me when Jaack was still alive if Tyler was absolutely certain that I was scum. If Tyler doubted that I might be scum, it would make more sense to lynch Jaack and hope that Jaack was the last scum and then Tyler wouldn't even have to try to lynch me. But he goes for me instead, I think in part because he knew he was going to have to get people to lynch me sooner or later (if he was successful yesterday then he could go into LyLo with a 1v1 vs Jaack, and guess who would win that one), and in part because it doesn't seem like something scum would do. Just like killing Dunn isn't something it seems like scumTyler would do, and he brought that up:

i don't think that if im scum here; systematically shooting all my allies at night would be a thing id do just because 'wifom'

I think Tyler also kind of gave us some indication of why he started pushing me when he did:

everyone else seems to be on autopilot or writing their last wills when we have all the time in the world and mountains of content to work with

In other words, if people were "on autopilot" then I think Tyler thought he would be safe laying the groundwork for my lynch later on. Plus, I don't know that anybody in the game really suspected him at that point. So it must have looked pretty safe to venture out into that territory.

There have been a few key points in the game we can go back and look at too -- the HA and Robert claims, the Dunn gambit and the Creature lynch all come to mind.

[toolenduso]

I don't know that anybody in the game really suspected him at that point.

...which fits in with this, now that I think about it:

bins, im still town, been town all game

i feel like ive obvtowned pretty hard this game

[toolenduso]

OK so Tyler's arc around the HA and Robert claims. HA claimed doc in #473, ira claimed bodyguard in #491 and Robert claimed macho VT ("weak townie" at first) in #562.

Oh yeah that's right. Tyler had not posted for about two days before HA's claim, and then he came back not long after the doc claim. Let me try to piece together a better idea of the timeline here...these are the VCs before and after HA's claim.

Votecount 1.06

iraonavp (L-3)

:

Jaack

, Tyler,

bins

, toolenduso

Zachstralkita

:

xyzzy, JFSF

,

heuristically

heuristically_alone

:

floof

,

Keyser

Bins

:

Dunnstral

Keyser Söze

:

iraonavp

Dunnstral

:

Zachstralkita

,

Not voting

:

Robert2424

[/area]

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[/color]

Votecount 1.07

heuristically_alone

(L-2)

:

Keyser

,

Jaack, Dunnstral, Floof, Zachstralkita

iraonavp

: Tyler,

bins

, toolenduso

Zachstralkita

:

xyzzy, JFSF

,

heuristically

Keyser Söze

:

iraonavp

Not voting

:

Robert2424

[/area]

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[/color]

Votecount 1.08

heuristically_alone

(L-1)

:

Keyser

,

Jaack, Dunnstral, Floof, Zachstralkita, JFSF

iraonavp

: Tyler,

bins

, toolenduso

Zachstralkita

:

xyzzy

,

heuristically

Keyser Söze

:

iraonavp

Not voting

:

Robert2424

[/area]

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[/color]

Votecount 1.09

iraonavp (L-3)

: Tyler,

bins

, toolenduso,

Jaack

heuristically_alone

:

Keyser

,

Dunnstral, Floof

Zachstralkita

:

xyzzy

,

heuristically

Keyser Söze

:

iraonavp

Not voting

:

Robert2424, Zachstralkita, JFSF

[/area]

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[/color]

Tyler's last post before HA's claim is a simple "robert's scum" in #348, then two days later, roughly six hours after HA's claim, Tyler posts:

what did i miss?

It was after ira's claim, and Tyler doesn't say anything all that definitive about HA vs ira:

from this page looks like ira is counterclaiming ha

zulfy edited the last vote count SEVEN TIMES like get it together

lemme read up before we lynch anything please

i mean doc and bodyguard both existing in a mini is kinda meh

and yes ira doesn't have a reason to do this as scum

ha flips scum ill probably be putting floof under a microscope

still don't really like robert

still like zach i think

i think scum would probably distance from ha early given some of his play that ive seen; he's perpetual lynchbait

like from memory i thought floofs vote was tacky

No vote on HA, but he does unvote ira.

So basically what I see happening here is that as pressure builds on HA (and remember, the other scumbuddy Keyser committed to bussing HA early), Tyler kind of retreats from the game a little and scum start talking strategy in their daychat thread. They settle on HA claiming doc. At this point I had thought that they would all have the same strategy, but they must have consciously planned against that. I guess it makes sense since Keyser was already bussing HA that he would doubtcast on HA's claim and continue pushing him while Tyler, who'd been voting ira, goes another direction.

So Tyler hangs back to see how people react to HA's claim, and then ira comes in and claims BG. At this point the heat is turning up so Tyler feels compelled to come in. What's key here is that Tyler kind of avoided talking too much about the HA and ira claims, he throws out a snippet or two but he is also kind of pulling attention toward robert and floof at the time while distancing mildly from HA.

The reason that's important is that it explains the way Tyler reacted to the Robert claim too. It looks like Tyler was still searching for a way to not lynch HA that day. Tyler unvotes and then disappears for another two days (didn't post from April 29 to May 1). So Robert claims in #562, and Tyler's response is one consistent with scum trying to figure out whether there's anything there he can work with:

my take is that i don't like roberts play but i can't remember the last time scum misread their role pm whereas town do it once in a while

im torn

and i guess like what's the scum motive here? try and save a buddy?

that's a fools errand

i kinda just wanna lynch ha before we out all our roles lmao

...he arrives at the conclusion that there's probably not anything there. But then Jaack votes Robert in #615, and Tyler begins kinda poking at Robert again:

what's the point exactly of giving macho to role that doesn't do anything else?

here i am guessing zulfy but still ive never heard of that before

I call it weak.

why do you call it weak? like is that how you refer to macho elsewhere or something?

Robert's answers aren't satisfactory, so Tyler votes him -- while leaving a door open for HA still:

i voted rob primarily because he question dodged me when i asked him about why he thought weak meant macho

and 626 hit my gut really hard in ways i'd struggle to articulate

i'd still support an ha lynch

After two days, most of the people on the HA wagon have remained on the HA wagon with only two people -- Jaack and Tyler -- going for Robert. At that point, Tyler switches back to HA:

most of the lurkers have checked in to weigh in about the claims, at this point it feels like we're dragging our feet

unvote;
vote:ha

should be l2

So a broad summary: Tyler stopped posting for a bit around the time it would have made sense for scum to be working out how they were going to handle the pressure on HA's slot. HA claims doc and Tyler skirts the issue, then Robert claims and Tyler finds something that looks like a saving grace for scum and he goes for it...only to find that there actually isn't a whole lot of support for it, and so he goes back to bussing.

[toolenduso]

tool you used that same exact case on me day 2

Didn't look it into it nearly as deeply then.

- fucked off for a week

Three days between the post you're talking about and my next vote (which was on xyzzy). And I was posting in the interim.

and came back to see town wasn't buying into it and dropped that read like a bad habit the rest of the game

Well, a couple things. First, you made good arguments against a couple of my points in #772 and successfully talked me back on the read a little bit. Second, I was in the middle of doing a bunch of game research when I posted that -- looking back at interactions with HA and vice versa. What I came away with was that other people looked worse than you.

And then D3/gambits/claims happened and blew everything up.

Third, I never really tried pushing you. So it's not that I was pushing to get you lynched and nobody responded. It's that I was doing research and found you looked worse than I thought, but still not as bad as other players so I pushed them instead of you.

also your theory about me lurking out day 1 is first of all bs and also falls apart to reason when you look at how i was perfectly comfortable interacting with keyser from very early on in the game and questioning him sometimes relatively hard on shit

I'm not saying you lurked out D1, I'm saying you lurked at very specific moments of the game. And I'm not talking about Keyser at all right now in fact, I'm talking about HA. So I'm not sure how your interactions with Keyser are supposed to make a difference here.

[toolenduso]

All right gonna look at the Dunn gambit now. Timeline: Dunn claimed cop in #1634, Jake cc'd in #1638, Bins claimed voyeur in #1691 and Dunn retracted in #1693.

Tyler's immediate reaction is fine:

so no respectable setup review would sign off on two cops

jake's hammer gave me more PR vibes than scumvibes

his investigation is more believable than dunn's (hip gunning here)

brb gonna check how they progressed with their reads on robert day 1 and 2

He does research, engages with both, generally seems to be trying to get one of them to admit that they're wrong. After Dunn retracts, Tyler asserts that Dunn is town:

the first thing i do if im godfather, have a good idea of who the cop is, pretty much know that they're checking me, well, it wouldn't be to CLAIM COP

it'd probably be something like

jump up and down for about five minutes

then coast to endgame on an undeserved win

something like that

Eh I'm not finding anything really that scummy-looking here unfortunately, he played it well. The only thing is that Tyler sorta maybe searched around for a way to think Dunn was scum in this bolded part:

if dunn's town i could see him being new and coming from a different site meta where bonkers shit like this happens all the time

the thought process "let me be the fall guy for the cop" isn't so ridiculous outside the MS bubble (it's only bad play in a very LAL environment)

i just wish his N1 check lined up more

Ugh why couldn't the last scum have just been jaack.

[toolenduso]

Creature lynch. D3 was from #1614-#2255. Tyler's votes during the day were on jaack (#1802), xyzzy (#2020), Jaack (#2066), xyzzy (#2141) and Creature (#2252).

So that's right. Tyler was actually the hammer on Creature. Now to go back and look over his interactions with the slot throughout the day. I'm gonna start toward the end of the Dunn-Jake stuff, because that dominated discussion for the first part of the day.

Tyler kinda pokes at Creature here:

sidenote; creature has posted since replacing in but has given zero content

...but still defends him:

creature needs to post - thought keyser was town not sure what you guys are seeing there

He actually comes out against Creature, but the tone is kinda jokey:

it's creature/jaack

game has been cracked

And of course he never votes Creature until the end of the day. In fact Tyler's next vote after this one was a switch from Jaack to xyzzy. He keeps pushing creature:

mmm yea creatures probably scum

Continues pushing Creature in #1871 and #1876, and more after that. Defends Creature based on Keyser-HA interactions:

thing is im isoing keyser and calling his push on ha bussing is sorta hard to swallow

Closest thing I see to an explanation for why he didn't vote Creature during all this is this post (the "barrier" he's talking about is Keyser hardbussing HA):

well don't laugh because if you want me to go the creature route over jaack today then you gotta help me break that barrier

im kinda almost at that point though after looking at things

He gets super close:

pretty down to lynch creature i think

...and then votes xyzzy, because:

it came to me in a dream

it feels right

This post sums up the scum explanation for Tyler's D3 pretty nicely I think:

day's obviously dragging. ill vote any of jaack, xy and creature. current preference put in order for convenience.

That gives him two options for mislynches and one for a bus in case he needs it. Throughout the day he mostly goes for the mislynches, and then at the end of the day Creature looks like the lynch so he hammers him. And it looks like it happened right up against deadline too:

Deadline is in less than 24 hours

[toolenduso]

Also I am going to be going on vacation starting Friday. I'll be driving all day on Friday and I'm going to a place where I will only be able to get on the internet once a day at most. So if the game is still going by then I will take a while to respond to things.

[toolenduso]

Are you serious? You went back over your own ISO to find places where you thought you did a good job of looking town?

And it's working?

[toolenduso]

All right lotta problems in that post about Jaack.

it's a boring question that tool doesn't care the answer to and that isn't logic a guy like tool would write someone off for in the first place because it's literally null

It's not a boring question and the answer to it wasn't null. ScumJaack didn't really need to make that argument yet, it looked scummy and when you're the last remaining scum at L-1 you usually don't do things that'll make you look even scummier.

And further, I was pointing it out specifically because you brought it up as an argument that I didn't understand. Turns out there was a reason for that -- you wanted to justify mislynching Jaack.

if jaack's the last scum there he'd of been saying whatever shit would stick to break out of a lynch the fact tool didn't have any paranoia about that detail..

This does not make any sense to me. TOF would not have made sense as a mislynch at the time. He was perhaps the least-suspected player in the game. Hence why trying to get TOF lynched was a move that might have made it more likely for Jaack to get lynched, not less likely.

and completely brushed off xy town telling super hard to keep right on tunneling that just doesn't come from town

I'm not sure what you're talking about here. You mean xyzzy's AtE? Because that was not towntelling. It was AtE.

Jaack was towntelling, and you literally brushed it off. Here, look at how you responded to my question:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[toolenduso]

OK this is getting transparent af now. I'll get into the rest of it but this really stood out to me:

And further, I was pointing it out specifically because you brought it up as an argument that I didn't understand. Turns out there was a reason for that -- you wanted to justify mislynching Jaack.

1) wasn't on that mislynch

That is such a technicality. Look at this:

Votecount 4.03

Jaack (L-1)

: xyzzy, Dunnstral, Tyler

xyzzy (L-3)

: Toolenduso

Not Voting

: TheOtherFiction, Bins, Jaack

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Oh, you weren't on that mislynch? That's because the mislynch didn't happen that day. But you jumped on the xyzzy wagon at the same time as Dunn did and put it at L-1.

This is stretched reasoning so you can argue against things you know are true.

[toolenduso]

And Bins, Tyler is trying to directly appeal to you in a sneaky way right now. Look at the narrative he's trying to build in this post:

tone ...
Very defensive ... Fuck feelings ...

i guess now i understand why all your posts have so much volume to them; you repeat the same shit over and over again, take posts out of context and add weirdly play-by-play commentary while stretching tinfoil scum motive to it; preview it about 100 times while editing, maybe with a coffee, possibly a donut, with some jams playing in the background, laughing maniacally (like all scum do)

Now let's look at some of the stuff Bins has said this game oh I don't know how about:

I have a tendency to be paranoid of people who act like they know what they're doing.

WHY ARE ALL OF MY READS BASED ON GUT WE HAVE SO MUCH TO GO OFF OF

I'm only townreading Tool because of what he has done. Not his tone, his mannerisms, his presence.

He is directly appealing to the fact that you've been paranoid and explicitly relying on your gut all game. He's openly attacking me for using logic and describing me as something insidious that you

should

be paranoid about.

[toolenduso]

There is a reason I play this way. I've spent literally the last 11 years of my life involved in things that call on you to look at the facts before you say something. So I don't just spout off, I go back and look at what's happened in the game before I post. I do my best to make sure I'm not misremembering things. I let the evidence guide my arguments.

[toolenduso]

All right lotta problems in that post about Jaack.

even the initial line is scummy; the tone here is of a "oh here we go again it's so obvious all the problems with anything that have to do with my being scum"

but then why respond to it in this way?
who's the audience of this post?

First part is clearly twisting anything you can find to be twisted. The problem is not with "anything that has to do with my being scum," it's with your logic. Or lack thereof. And the audience is Bins, she's the one deciding this.

quote="In post 2567, Tyler the Creator"]The reasoning is literally; jaack is town because scum wouldn't say "don't forget TOF might be godfather"[/quote]

No, it's "Why would scum do something that would obviously make them look worse if they're the last member of their scumteam and one vote away from a lynch? And why doesn't Tyler see that?"

quote="In post 2567, Tyler the Creator"]My initial post was neutral anyway - you weren't challenging any position and the answer to it bordered on rhetorical.
The answer is "why do scum do anything."[/quote]

I was asking you to provide your reasoning. You clearly had none, and continue to have none. Therefore -- fake.

quote="In post 2567, Tyler the Creator"]You literally put off posting content because you wanted my answer to that?[/quote]

No, right after I asked you that question you came out with a shallow-reachy case on me and suddenly I started smelling something foul coming from your direction. So I switched gears.

And further, I was pointing it out specifically because you brought it up as an argument that I didn't understand. Turns out there was a reason for that -- you wanted to justify mislynching Jaack.

2) i invented the jaack wagon
3) i invented the xy wagon[/quote]

I could check on the veracity of this but it's irrelevant. So you wanted to lynch two townies. Great. I found the fake reasoning and pointed it out and now you can't justify it.

quote="In post 2567, Tyler the Creator"]one of the townest posts in the thread - you not recognizing that spoke a lot about how scum you were[/quote]

I have used that exact tactic as scum before and I have seen my partners do it when I'm scum. I gave examples. Why was xyzzy's post super-town? Again, let's look at your reasoning:

only a scumrobot wouldn't be swayed whatsoever by xy's post last page

Yeah.

[toolenduso]

Aw son of a bitch. Fixed the quote tags.

Spoiler:

All right lotta problems in that post about Jaack.

even the initial line is scummy; the tone here is of a "oh here we go again it's so obvious all the problems with anything that have to do with my being scum"

but then why respond to it in this way?
who's the audience of this post?

First part is clearly twisting anything you can find to be twisted. The problem is not with "anything that has to do with my being scum," it's with your logic. Or lack thereof. And the audience is Bins, she's the one deciding this.

The reasoning is literally; jaack is town because scum wouldn't say "don't forget TOF might be godfather"

No, it's "Why would scum do something that would obviously make them look worse if they're the last member of their scumteam and one vote away from a lynch? And why doesn't Tyler see that?"

My initial post was neutral anyway - you weren't challenging any position and the answer to it bordered on rhetorical.
The answer is "why do scum do anything."

I was asking you to provide your reasoning. You clearly had none, and continue to have none. Therefore -- fake.

You literally put off posting content because you wanted my answer to that?

No, right after I asked you that question you came out with a shallow-reachy case on me and suddenly I started smelling something foul coming from your direction. So I switched gears.

And further, I was pointing it out specifically because you brought it up as an argument that I didn't understand. Turns out there was a reason for that -- you wanted to justify mislynching Jaack.

2) i invented the jaack wagon
3) i invented the xy wagon

I could check on the veracity of this but it's irrelevant. So you wanted to lynch two townies. Great. I found the fake reasoning and pointed it out and now you can't justify it.

one of the townest posts in the thread - you not recognizing that spoke a lot about how scum you were

I have used that exact tactic as scum before and I have seen my partners do it when I'm scum. I gave examples. Why was xyzzy's post super-town? Again, let's look at your reasoning:

only a scumrobot wouldn't be swayed whatsoever by xy's post last page

Yeah.

[toolenduso]

Sorry I'm not trying to take this personally it's just it looks like we're about to lose so I've got this energy going

[toolenduso]

also, scummy af turnaround like why did he make a mountain out of that if my points were so

reachy

Because I'd been largely fooled up until that point. I thought you were town.

One BIG thing that you should keep in mind bins is how both creature, keyser and ha all softly scumread tool. Or at least didn't townread him ... Did any of them ever really try and lynch tool? Nah.

Yeah, and how did they interact with you? Here is literally HA's only mention of you:

Spoiler: tyler

vote:xyzzy

guess why im voting this

Still confused about what you meant by this. Were you assuming that we though it obvious why you voted thus?
First assumption is that Tyler is town. Also a gut choice. He does seem to think Jack is town and has some doubt on Bins like me, so with common thoughts, I'll put him as town for now.

And this is all the noteworthy interactions I found between both Keyser and Creature toward you:

-Keyser kinda buddies up to Tyler in #58, sorta like he did to me on D1 as well.
-Other than that, his discussions with Tyler are largely clinical (answering questions, talking about game theory, etc).
-Creature says Tyler's motivations look good in #1868.

They basically ignored you except to give you shallow townreads.

[toolenduso]

yes tool because i know the first thing on my mind as scum is to

We're not talking about you. We're talking about your partners...

1. ignore the shit out of my buddies
2. and make sure that i townread them for silly and confusing reasons

scum all lurked out - having more interaction with them is weirder than not much

...and scum do these things all the time with their partners. Especially avoiding interaction.

[toolenduso]

I mean I don't think there's anything that could be impossible for scum to say. I'm generally against the idea because my own knowledge that I'm town is going to cause me to see my own posts differently than somebody who can't be sure whether I'm town. But if you're asking then I can look around for some towny-looking stuff in my ISO.

[toolenduso]

Honestly Bins I think you already found a lot of the most towny stuff from me. Like 411, 448 and 1646. There's the fact that I didn't go after Robert when he mixed up his claim and Tyler did? There's also the fact that I was trying to prevent town from fracturing after Dunn's gambit by dividing the game clearly into towns and scum possibilities. I did that so we wouldn't get distracted and let scum fool us into lynching somebody like Dunn or TOF.

[toolenduso]

Which, while going through my ISO, I found another thing that shows why Tyler is scum that I forgot about. After Dunn's gambit, while Jake was still pushing super hard for us to lynch Dunn, Tyler said this:

look, if this is about teaching the kid a lesson so that he never does stupid shit like this as town again, then yea, we've got a couple mislynches to burn and there's no way for me to argue that

So I pointed out that that would be making it harder for town to win:

Bad idea for town. We have a pool of clears and our advantage is in keeping as many people in that pool as possible.

And Tyler responded:

no shit?

So I was all like:

Sorry -- was this post not you suggesting that we could afford to lynch Dunn just to appease Jake?

And then Tyler was like:

we could "afford" it

it's pretty easy to gather im quite against it, though

i just wanted to no for sure if it was worth my time to argue with him about it

Which is him trying to slip out of it. He's still saying we could lynch Dunn to appease Jake, but then not taking responsibility for it.

[toolenduso]

why is it impossible for you to interpret perfectly reasonable lines of inquiry just as they are and not add on this make believe masked robber breaking into the back window spin to it?

You described me as like a deranged Homer Simpson-inspired mad scientist earlier, so.

without me the dunn lynch probably goes through; you're first quote is me - arguing against jake about why lynching dunn is bad

Yeah, while dipping your toe into the water. Twice in that whole exchange you floated the idea that, well if Jake wants it maybe we could do it. You didn't vote him, no, because that would put you in a tough spot after the townflip. But if I or somebody else had come out and said something like "Yeah maybe he's right and we should just eliminate Dunn so we're not so distracted" then that might've work out for you.

you say bad idea for town - like you're arguing against me, but you have the same exact stance on it as i do?

I didn't have the stance that we could afford to eliminate Dunn, no.

[toolenduso]

I'm not arguing that you didn't push against the Dunn wagon. I'm showing that you held out hope that it could happen.

[toolenduso]

Starting when? I'm leaving on vacation tomorrow and on Friday I probably won't be able to get on until maybe night time. Then the day after that probably not at all. So if you have anything to ask it'd probably be best to ask me today or tomorrow.

[toolenduso]

V/LA until 7/10.

[toolenduso]

Back from vacation. Congrats town! And especially to Bins and Tyler. Ircher is right, I definitely should've killed Bins and left him alive for LyLo. That and the Zachstral kill were, I think, my two biggest contributions to scum losing.

[toolenduso]

But for real I'm sticking to my guns and saying that fake claim wasn't a bad idea at all in theory

See, I feel the opposite about this. I think it's a terrible idea in theory, but it worked out well for you/town this game. There are a lot a lot of things that could've gone wrong with this, and in fact if scum had pushed to get you lynched then it might have actually happened. Of course that might have made things harder for scum, but the trade off is we would've been cutting down that pool of town clears much more quickly.

Oh and I just want to kind of acknowledge in here for posterity that I'm largely responsible for the state scum is in right now because I pushed for the Zachstral NK. I don't exactly know atm where I should've looked to see that I was wrong, but somehow Dunn and Bins both saw Jake's hints that he was cop without me knowing so I guess I have to get better at finding that stuff.

If only I was scum

Yeah OK so how did you figure out he was cop again? I need to get better at spotting these things apparently.