Micro 624: Grey Flag Nightless (Game Over)

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: rb

[GuiltyLion]

Rach/java interaction feels a little forced

[GuiltyLion]

It was mostly based on 14

What's wrong with trying to move out of RVS

[GuiltyLion]

choo choo

VOTE: Rosske

[GuiltyLion]

frivolous?

[GuiltyLion]

@everyone not voting Rosske

: why are you not voting Rosske?

[GuiltyLion]

You caught me. Game solved after 62 posts. Best town EVER.

This implies that you're not town, or that you know that TNE is town.

@everyone not voting Rosske

: why are you not voting Rosske?

Why should I vote rosske?

because he is scum, ofc

[GuiltyLion]

Oh don't worry I'll vote you in time, but I'm not ready yet to derail this juicy Rosske wagon.

Obviously 62 is sarcastic. The important thing is that you didn't consider at all whether TNE is scum in your response. Additionally you implicitly called everyone else "town" but that's a semantic thing which is usually not 100% reliable

[GuiltyLion]

The sarcasm is irrelevant to my point

You chose to be sarcastic to TNE because you

assumed he was town

.

You wouldn't give that sarcastic response if you thought it was scum suggesting that you were scum.

Now another question, does it "almost look like" I am doing manufacturing excuses, or does it "actually look like" I am doing that?

[GuiltyLion]

she*, sorry TNE

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: karnos

For putting someone at L-1 so quickly in the day and not announcing it.

surely you have a better reason for voting someone than this?

In other news, I liked karnos responses to me, he can be town

[GuiltyLion]

I bet at least one of these players complaining about karnos L-1 - {javajoe, Hoopla, Franky} - is scum. Discuss

Also 88 is bad as Franky makes no mention of my subsequent townread on Karnos. It's as if he wants to just point out a flaw in my play rather than discern my alignment.

[GuiltyLion]

Why are you talking about NLs? They're literally impossible in this setup

[GuiltyLion]

Yes, I meant it as "I'll allow him to be town in my eyes for now", but I didn't consider that it was ambiguous so that's not a bad point.

I'd bet on it because the idea that scum!karnos would use an L-1 vote as a hope for a town derphammer just feels shallow to me. It's the kind of surface level push that's easy to fake. IMO there's nothing alignment indicative in putting someone at L-1 early, if anything I'd say it's slightly townie as it forces people to start getting their teeth in the game.

[GuiltyLion]

Game theory in general not just THIS setup.

Karnos was saying my mentioning derp hammers often come from townies in games was antitown, and I was explaining further.

But why talk about game theory? I don't see how talking about NLs illuminated anything here, especially since they cannot happen in this game. It doesn't feel like it's contributing to helping develop reads.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, there's nothing really wrong with game theory talk early in the game since it allows people to understand where each player's understanding of the game is at and the perceptions people are likely to have on how a town should play

So what have you learned about how RachMarie thinks about how a town should play?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not "shutting down discussion", I'm taking a completely useless statement:

"I could also say in my experience it is rare we lynch scum on d 1, and that it is really bad juju to have a NL on D1, that does not mean we should either NL to avoid hitting a townie on D1, nor that a NL on D1 is an autowin for scum."

and bringing it back to

this particular game

.

I really don't like how rb interprets my posting as "shutting down discussion" when I am actually trying to get a read on RachMarie. His reason for voting Rosske was for a similar interruption, so I find it inconsistent that he didn't consider what I was doing here.

[GuiltyLion]

If they are scum they usually hunker low and try to not be too obvious.

So why do you think karnos - who made a very visible L-1 vote and has engaged in defending it repeatedly - is scum? I would not say he is hunkering low.

[GuiltyLion]

I meant it more as in "why are you talking about game theory here?", because I said "why are you talking about NLs" and RachMarie said "Game theory in general".

I wouldn't make a blanket statement like "all game theory talk isn't useful", but I will raise my eyebrows when someone would rather talk about hypothetical scum actions than the particular actions of players in the game. I guess the whole line of questioning started because I really can't follow the logic in RachMarie's 101 whatsoever and I think karnos has been comparatively clear about his view on derphammers and why it's anti-town to say what RachMarie said.

Like RachMarie said his vote was bad because someone could quickhammer, then karnos said if scum quickhammers then we'll catch them and if they're bad town then they're worth getting rid of anyway, then RachMarie talks about a game where scum quick hammered her and won, how does that refute what karnos said?

p-edit: "flailing" really?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna go ahead and say rach is town

Probably

Could be wrong

But town

meh I think I am getting this vibe too but I completely disagree with her reads and her reasoning behind them

anyway let's get back to lynching Rosske

[GuiltyLion]

Like RachMarie said his vote was bad because someone could quickhammer, then karnos said if scum quickhammers then we'll catch them and if they're bad town then they're worth getting rid of anyway, then RachMarie talks about a game where scum quick hammered her and won, how does that refute what karnos said?

think about this for a minute.

I have thought about it. karnos' point was that it's stupid to be afraid of scum quickhammering because then they'll be autolynched the next day. RachMarie said this has happened and it was scum that quickhammered - so regardless of the fact that Aubrey still won later in the game, karnos is still absolutely correct that scum quickhammering is obvious and a free D2 lynch.

IMO the fact that the town failed to catch Aubrey later is irrelevant to what karnos was saying

[GuiltyLion]

rach: *gives example of scum getting away with derphammering*

except my point is that the scum didn't get away, he was lynched the next day. You're conflating "scum" with "scumteam" here.

karnos (and I agree with him) is saying that derphammering is a policy lynch. No exceptions. All the examples in the world of town/scum derphammering in various games won't change this attitude, and IMO is a distracting discussion from the game we have here.

My additional opinion is that assuming anyone who does an early L-1 vote is scum is a very shallow way of forming reads. While I currently think RachMarie is being genuine with her push here, I don't believe her conclusion is correct.

[GuiltyLion]

rb might be scum

[GuiltyLion]

I actually think Rosske is more likely Town than Scum at this point because he's trying to solve the game and push players into effective play

[citation needed]

[GuiltyLion]

also while I appreciate RachMarie explaining my thought process for me (please don't do that again), I especially didn't like the timing of rb's wagon hop. It's like he was waiting for Rosske to post something perfunctory, such that it would give him a reason to move.

[GuiltyLion]

No, but I don't see town motivation either. He's tunneling on TNE and he says he doesn't want to cause "interference" as a reason not to play the game.

Can you explain why you said he is trying to solve the game? Quote your evidence.

[GuiltyLion]

I like how I just tell you 3 posts and you're like, "quote your evidence."

Give me one clean reason for your vote on me and I'll drop this entirely. Most likely you'll give another empty one-liner that does nothing to assist the town but go ahead and prove me wrong. You've yet to make one post with substance this whole game. Fluff fluff fluff fluff fluff. One liner. More fluff.

Now read TNE's ISO and you'll see Rosske's correct in his analysis.

This doesn't answer my question. The Rosske post you quoted doesn't look to me like evidence that he's

solving the game

. He's pushing on one person who is on his wagon, he's offered no comment on anything that's happened or anyone else.

He also says he'll drop his push if TNE gives a clean reason for her vote. Why? If TNE is scum and gives a reason, does that make her no longer scum? If TNE is town, why push her on her vote at all?

Also I disagree about TNE, TNE made a post with substance when she said karnos could have been a Rosske partner and also when she said RachMarie was probably town. Those two posts advanced the game more than anything Rosske has done.

Town: {RachMarie, Franky, TNE, karnos, javajoe, GuiltyLion}
Scum: {Rosske, rb, Hoopla}

[GuiltyLion]

Oh I see, you're one of those players who think that simply providing reads counts as actual content. It really doesn't in early game because Town are often wrong and nothing Scum say is reliable.

Uh what? Reads are

the definition

of content. I'd say short of pushing your scumreads, reads are basically the most useful thing you can post in the game. Town are often wrong, but it lets you see what they're thinking. Scum have to be held accountable to the reads they express, and when their reads change in inconsistent or unbelievable ways, that's a useful way of catching them. Even just agreeing on most reads is a useful way to start townbloc-ing.

Strategies like Rosske's where he lets wagons develop and notes their patterns, pressuring players to provide reasons for their thinking (transperancy) and also asking questions are actually good indicators of a strong early game.

You seem to be giving Rosske a lot of credit here. What patterns has he noted? What questions has he asked that have been useful?

(sorry but no one anywhere is good enough to pick the scumteam 8 pages into Day 1).

I've seen someone nail the scumteam 2 pages into Day 1 before. The point of me expressing my reads is to fish for reactions, and yours is to discredit. Noted

I'm not sure why you think it's bad that he stops pushing if TNE gives him a good reason: we're not even halfway through Day 1 and tunneling someone who's actually got good reasons for their reads doesn't make sense at this stage unless they've made some terrible scumslip. Also did you ever stop to think that maybe Rosske doesn't know if she's town or scum and part of asking that question is to help him find out?

Just because you're already townreading TNE, doesn't mean you should expect every other player to do so as well. Town are often wrong about things, especially on Day 1. That's just a fact.

My point is that Rosske's "I'll drop this if you give me a reason!"

doesn't

look like someone genuinely trying to sort TNE's alignment. Instead it's like he's offering an olive branch as a reason for him to not push her. If TNE were scum, scum are quite capable of providing decent reasons for their pushes, it's not like a solid reason would clear her.

Also, that last bit

really

looks like you know I'm town and you're just trying to discredit my townread on TNE.

[GuiltyLion]

I liked Rach's data dump in 163 even if all the data wasn't totally convincing and the sort of hammers karnos was talking about. I think Rach comes off as quite town, and along with rosske, I wouldn't want to lynch either of them today.

Why do you think Rosske is town?

In other news, I'm sure there's at least one or two scum on rosske's wagon though and think that is a good area to investigate.

Why aren't you investigating it then?

[GuiltyLion]

I think Karnos is coming out of it looking a bit scummy, though I've seen the same attitude displayed by town.

Why do you think karnos looked scummy, and why did you immediately hedge in the exact same sentence?

[GuiltyLion]

karnos what do you think about my back and forth with rb and the shady way he's trying to townread Rosske for no apparent reason

I'd be happy to switch to an rb wagon if we can get that going, don't wanna do Rach today even though I see your point. I think she's just stubborn town.

[GuiltyLion]

This will be my last post on all this game theoory debate because it's getting real unproductive and I can see that you're too confused and/or obstinate to get what I'm saying to get my point.

Like it's becoming obvious that you either don't believe what you're saying right now or you're just legitimately confused. Or maybe 3rd option is you've got an ego the size of a continent and you just refuse to actually admit that simply posting naked reads is far from the ideal form of content in early game.

What's the point of insulting me like this?

For example you say reads are the definition of content but you have many posts where you aren't providing any reads. Does that make them contentless posts? Obviously, it doesn't. Which means content comes in a lot of other ways than just 'reads'.

holy "not what I was saying" batman. I said reads ARE content. That doesn't mean posts without reads AREN'T content. TNE has provided content, in the form of reads. Do you disagree?

Whether reasons align with your own or not isn't a good indicator of scum because everyone reads the game different. Look through a few past games and you're sure to see Town players tunneling like idiots, playing like lynchbait, derphammering and whatever other dumb and poorly-reasoned thing that to you, will make no sense. The only thing that really matters is whether or not in the context of the particular game being played a specific kind of action is likely to be scum or town motivated. There's no way of acccurately blanket-categorizing any particular action as being scum because:

Anything Scum can do, Town can do.
Anything Town can do, Scum can do.

This is v patronizing, as if I don't know how to play.

The important question is always: which alignment would do this in this situation? And I don't see as much reason for scum!Rosske to sit and watch his wagon and see what develops as I do for Town Rosske.

Where did the votes go after Rosske played the wagon off? Oh look, they went off of Rosske? Hmmmm

Where did town!Rosske help us find scum? No one is town to me unless they start trying to find scum.

Also I don't really know how you read that as a scumslip, since the point is that if you actually were Town it'd be stupid play to just assume everyone who mostly disagrees with you is scum and that everyone who agrees with you is Town.

You're speaking to me as if you

know

I'm town. "You shouldn't expect every other player to share your reads, Town are often wrong about things". You

know

my townread on TNE is genuine (and dare I say, accurate?), and you're just trying to discredit it towards everyone else so that you can keep TNE as a lynchable player.

@karnos if Rach refusing to admit lies is a scumtell, how about GuiltyLion refusing to admit lies? What's the chance he's very arrogant stubborn town vs. Lying scum?

lmao what lies?

[GuiltyLion]

Just because I'll say I'll drop my push if TNE gives me an answer doesn't mean I will. It all depends on whether I like her answer or not.

Okay she's declared that she's not going to answer, so could you direct your efforts somewhere else? It's been a while since I got off your wagon and you're still not doing much else. I moved because I thought it was townie to not freak out at the L-1, but now that you're no longer L-1 you're still just engaging TNE and not others. Do something pls.

"oh no, my scumbuddy might get lynched and that will make me look bad by association, better start distancing!"

[GuiltyLion]

rb, my point condensed is just, I want to know why you think Rosske is game solving

and you're just like not giving me that

[GuiltyLion]

move on from exposing you as scum? I don't think so

Do you have a history of blowing up like this in past town games?

I'll make a point by point rebuttal later if people want it, so

@everyone - let me know if you can't see the problems with rb's posting and I'll address them

. At this point you're just spamming the thread with walls that avoid my question and it's bad for the gamestate so I'm not gonna keep pointing out the holes.

The tl;dr is that you said "game solving". Just cause you're saying now that you think Rosske had "town motivation", it is still in no way "game solving", so I don't appreciate you dodging my question. Let's set aside whether TNE has been townie, let's set aside the semantic point about whether reads are content,

tell me why you specifically said Rosske is "game solving".

. Links to posts doesn't count. "Town motivation in ignoring his wagon" doesn't count. Where did Rosske show you that he is attempting to solve the game?

[GuiltyLion]

I actually think Rosske is more likely Town than Scum at this point because he's trying to solve the game

and push players into effective play as opposed to defending himself despite being put at L-1 so early.

just in case there's any confusion about what I'm referring to here.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean,

I guess

I ~guess~

if you are trying to say "solving the game" means "sitting there and not pushing anything while he figures it out [behind the scenes]", then I can start to see where you're coming from

but that's still giving Rosske way too much credit, and if you are town with a bad read here then he is almost even more certainly scum so you should probably vote him again before the end of the day

[GuiltyLion]

Rosske who do you think is scum? Would you vote rb with me?

[GuiltyLion]

I don't know if I want a hammer yet

UNVOTE:

I'm surprised the karnos wagon died so quickly. Rosske can you give us like some kind of overall read on the game? Top three scumreads, top three townreads, who you think has been acting strangely? I want to see your thought process

[GuiltyLion]

Also I can't really tell why GuiltyLion's so scared of lynching someone who was one of his top scumreads but that shit is suspicious af yo

Where did I say I was scared of lynching him?

This is a misrep and the only reason I have doubts about the wagon is because you're scummy as shit. I'd much rather flip you first then Rosske

[GuiltyLion]

Granted,

I put bait out there by appearing pathetic during my vote

, but he still took it.

are you saying you intentionally made your post weak? why did you do that?

[GuiltyLion]

Rosske respond to my 304

VOTE: Rosske

I would lynch Rosske, rb, Franky, or Hoopla

[GuiltyLion]

Hoopla - I think rb is a possible partner for Rosske and definitely someone I would flip on a scum!Rosske flip. First he tried to say Rosske is town, then he 180'd once it was clear I was not abandoning my push and is now actively WIFOMing to try to gain towncred from his Rosske vote.

[GuiltyLion]

Town: {RachMarie, Franky, TNE, karnos, javajoe, GuiltyLion}
Scum: {Rosske, rb, Hoopla}

just gonna quote this again

Infinity definitely looks town to me now

[GuiltyLion]

@) rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity, karnos, javajoe

Top 2 scumreads in your next post please.

Top scumread is you actually

I think karnos looks a lot worse after the town!Rosske flip, being a counterwagon to town

If you flip scum, I could maybe see scum!Infinity

I still really don't like half of what rb is saying but I do get the sense that he's trying to solve the game, some of it is probably a playstyle clash. The way he started pouring on the AtE and

rage

when I was pressuring him really turns me off though

[GuiltyLion]

also I haven't brought this up yet but I don't like the easy townreads on TNE and Rach for their "slips" - I expect town to understand the rules of the game and I think faking a lack of knowledge is well within anyone competent's scum toolbox. Individually I think both of their play has looked fine but I'm definitely going to re-evaluate how people were throwing down those townreads in a bit.

[GuiltyLion]

the thing with posts like 345 is that they're very easy posts for scum to make, as they can convincingly examine the gamestate while still knowing everyone's alignment. My problem with Hoopla is how she basically defined Rosske as town sheerly by looking at the wagon composition

pre-flip

, without diving at all into Rosske's actual play.

VOTE: Hoopla

[GuiltyLion]

rb - why do you say my Day1 scumreads are "awful" when we both finished the day on the Rosske wagon and we are both currently scumreading Hoopla?

[GuiltyLion]

even though the amount of misrepping you did of me was just absurd that I felt like you just couldn't be seriously trying to solve the game.

can you explain these alleged misreps

as far as how I was perceiving the conversation, you said Rosske was town for game-solving, I asked you why you thought he was game-solving, and then you rattled off some post numbers and then blew up at me

[GuiltyLion]

"Actual play" being code for behavioural tells, right? Why is the fact I favour wagon analysis on D1 (something I believe to be more accurate) suspicious to you?

Do you think I'd only play this way as scum? If not, why are you reading my playstyle as alignment-related as opposed to playstyle-related?

I guess I just find it suspicious that you came to a conclusion about Rosske's alignment based on the way his wagon formed, it seems backwards to me, especially now knowing that he was in fact town. I am all for evaluating wagons and the motivations/intentions of those who join them, but I generally don't think it

truly

says anything about the alignment of the person being wagoned themselves, especially in a game with 3 scum to 6 town.

It's not that I think your playstyle definitively makes you scum, it's just that your playstyle is a very safe one for scum to emulate and I'm not quite convinced that you're uninformed. I read a post like 432 and I can see it coming from either alignment, and that makes me put my guard up. There's just a certain feeling of townie-lack-of-knowledge that is missing from your posts.

Let me ask you this: what do you think of rb's point about me ignoring you D1 and how that could implicate us as scumbuddies? And what's your opinion on infinity's 452?

[GuiltyLion]

I need a lot more from karnos rn

[GuiltyLion]

javajoe why are you calling Hoopla's defense of Rosske a "hard" defense?

[GuiltyLion]

gotcha.

I don't like the wagon on javajoe, he feels town to me

[GuiltyLion]

Well I am scum reading you [karnos] without looking at the derp hammer argument at all. But I can't deny that rachs play is very suspicious of you are town.

rb - why do you say my Day1 scumreads are "awful" when we both finished the day on the Rosske wagon and we are both currently scumreading Hoopla?

Tbh I don't know how someone could scumread Hoopla + Rosske Day 1. That scumteam just looks absurd to me. With Rosske flipping town I see it as a towncred move, but someone picking a Hoopla + Rosske pairing is just weird af. Scum don't defend their partner when they're at L-1 with multiple people declaring intent to give intent, it's just dumb. Plus the fact you never really aired any suspicions of Hoopla, other than just putting them in your read list (unexplained as far as I know) when you put quite a lot of effort into 'pressuring' your other 2 scumreads is telling imo.

This game setup means bussing/distancing is probably to be expected because there's extra scum. I'd be confident in calling a Hoopla + GL scumteam. Your vote on her right after my suspicion on her just makes me go, 'meh'. I meta-read TNE town as well since this is easily recognizable as the same town game I played with her very recently.

So to be clear: it's awful for reads made on Day1. Rosske flipped town, I'm town and you didn't provide much reasoning at all as to why you thought Hoopla was scum. If she flipped scum I'd be more inclined to think you were scum as well, than that you weren't. BUT - we agree on why Hoopla's townread of Rosske is suspect. So...I'm willing to re-evaluate over the course of Day 2 - even though the amount of misrepping you did of me was just absurd that I felt like you just couldn't be seriously trying to solve the game.

Plus we agree on karnos apparently, but I've said before I don't think that simple read-agreement is a strong alignment indicator.

I both agree and disagree with this post. It is true that it odd to think hoopla and Rosske were partners day one because scum hard defending a doomed partner is near suicidal. That being said it is still possible for scum to do this because it just causes wifom. Your second statement is false though, that we should expect scum to bus more this game because we have more scum.

This may be a townslip for you as well, because you seem to have forgotten that we only need to lynch two scum to win

. I am torn with you, while your words are seeming to rub me the wrong way, I get the gut feeling that you are town and actively trying to work this whole thing out.

I find these posts to be particularly townie,

and I'm far more interested in you casing why he's scum than me casing why he's town. PoE argument ain't doing it for me.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see how those posts are towny...

java doesn't look like he's trying to solve the game, has few unique opinions, and is non-committal.

Is that because you could be scum?

It looks to me like he's trying to solve the game. His push on karnos by "setting aside the derphammer argument" feels genuine, it shows he's looking at motivations and tone more so than NAI opinions/contradictions which is what scum tend to riff on. And he pointed out a potentially subtle townslip, I see absolutely no scum!motivation in doing that. I was hoping you'd identify what I was looking at but you don't seem interested in considering the possibility of town!javajoe. Why?

I don't believe in noncommittal behavior being a scumtell. I know it goes against site meta but I think town are often genuinely unsure of themselves and I think it's much easier for scum to commit themselves to fake reads in an effort to look "committed" and like they "believe in their reads".

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still getting a scummy feeling from Rach. Now it seems terrible to say, given my own absense lately, but it seemed like after her push on me failed to achieve a lynch she has largely faded into the background. That seems more like a scum (who failed to push a miss-lynch) than a town action to me.

This push from karnos feels scummy to me, he's dismissing that she has stated she'll be V/LA and also self-conscious of his own hypocrisy.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: karnos

I may still go back to Hoopla but I think he's scum in either world of Hoopla's alignment and I'd like to see if anyone will follow me here.

[GuiltyLion]

also I totally thought it's been 4 to lynch and just realized that consensus for 5 votes to lynch is going to be very hard. If scum flat out refuse to vote their buddies then it will require all 5 townies to townblock on a correct lynch, so we need everyone to get involved in consolidating and narrowing down potential wagons ASAP. I will be around to switch back to Hoopla if needed.

[GuiltyLion]

If there's a tie under this rule, the tiebreak will be based on the sequence in which the votes were made.

mod/callforjudgment - can you explain this more clearly? What sequence determines which lynch goes through in a tie?

It's actually really complex to explain it in a way that has no loopholes/corner cases. The easiest way to think about it is this: whenever a player changes their vote, I sort the vote count by the number of votes on each player, but if two players have the same number of votes, I leave them in the same relative positions on the vote count (i.e. one player only moves above another on the vote count if they had more votes). Although there isn't a vote count after every post, this conceptually gets updated every post (so you never have two votes made "simultaneously" for the purpose of the tiebreak). The player who gets lynched at deadline is the player at the top of the votecount. If for whatever reason there are no votes at deadline, the player who's lynched is whoever had a vote on them most recently. — callforjudgement

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: karnos

I may still go back to Hoopla but I think he's scum in either world of Hoopla's alignment and I'd like to see if anyone will follow me here.

how do you figure?

You've been more or less scumreading karnos all game. Why on earth are you asking me this

VOTE: Hoopla

[GuiltyLion]

Contradictions like that often come from more impulsive town, where java if he was town would be more careful and contemplative. He doesn't seem like the type of person who would think about the same thing twice and come to a different conclusion.

[GuiltyLion]

also Hoopla I'd love to see you do the same kind of analysis on this javajoe wagon that convinced you that Rosske was town.

[GuiltyLion]

Contradictions like that often come from more impulsive town, where java if he was town would be more careful and contemplative. He doesn't seem like the type of person who would think about the same thing twice and come to a different conclusion.

What do you not get

If I'm reading it correctly, it looks like you're saying java's townplay would look different than what you see from impulsive town? How do you know java well enough to be making statements about what type of person he is?

[GuiltyLion]

oh which reminds me, I forgot to respond to this

I'm trying to consider the possibility, but I find it hard to see a world where java is town because of how strong my townreads are on everyone. I linked a scumgame of karnos' earlier, and he played completely differently. What do you think about that?

I don't believe in meta reads, really. People change their games, they learn and improve, they have different levels of RL life mood/business between games, and often the sample size people use for making a "meta" read is far too small. Unless you can show me a consistent, specific tell that karnos ONLY does as town that he has done in this game, I don't really put much stock in it.

[GuiltyLion]

karnos is like almost definitely scum

we are lynching him tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

Ok, why didn't you say that earlier? All you said was "I'm conflicted on rb, here's this townslip" and "oh thanks for reminding me about the townslip, he's probably town" and those statements don't really match up.

Anyway you can go ahead an hammer, rb

also this is like a super scumpost

"why didn't you clarify earlier?", yet doesn't re-evaluate his read

[GuiltyLion]

mm why am I scum now?

[GuiltyLion]

Spoiler: everything karnos has posted on D2

VOTE: rb

Biggest scumread.

Next? I don't know yet.

Sorry for the absence, on vacation and I thought I would have time to check in each night but things didn't work out. I expect to have some time to catch up and post later this evening.

Okay, good news is I read over the pages since I've been away. Bad news is I don't feel comfortable sharing my initial opinions because things are too complex for a single read-through. It's clear to me I'll have to read through again and maybe look at some iso to get a solid feeling on the current game state. I'll be back from vacation before deadline, so that shouldn't be a problem.

That said, I am not convinced by rb. I don't see a reason to move my vote off right now.

I'm still getting a scummy feeling from Rach. Now it seems terrible to say, given my own absense lately, but it seemed like after her push on me failed to achieve a lynch she has largely faded into the background. That seems more like a scum (who failed to push a miss-lynch) than a town action to me.

Javajoe is one I intend to re-read through his iso. He was looking townie to me on day 1, but some inconsistancies are making me reconsider.

Hoopla is probably town, but the jury is never out.

On a long drive today. Noting the game state, please don't hammer javajoe, we still have 3 days.

Isn't the fact that my wagon has formed so easily with little reasoning a reason for you to think this could be a mislynch? I give up, you guys are determined to mislynch again. Scum is hoopla, karnos and a third that I have no strong read on, possibly infinity.

I doubt it. If you are not scum, rb probably is. I still think Rach might be scum. Then again, you might just flip red anyway.

Karnos, what do you think this flip will be? Who would be possible scum partners for java? Who else would be scum if he's not?

I don't think javajoe is scum, but I could be wrong which is why I wrote what I did.

Rach & rb are scum, probably with Guiltylion.

[GuiltyLion]

doubt that he did, and doubt that you think that

[GuiltyLion]

Also karnos, apparently you think 2 scum are currently not on this wagon - which you think is a mislynch - yet you are doing nothing to appeal to the townies on the wagon to vote elsewhere. Why?

[GuiltyLion]

I've been trying to derail the lynch, like far more than you have.

You're scum with Infinity and Hoopla.

[GuiltyLion]

Like I can't even imagine a world where town!karnos can't see everything I've been doing since post 500 or so to try to expose scum elsewhere and stop the java lynch

VOTE: karnos

Let's lynch scum today.

[GuiltyLion]

Also did you just call rb town? Lol

[GuiltyLion]

So much for your rb scumread, karnos

[GuiltyLion]

Well for one I would think town would be paying attention to their scumread declaring intent on a wagon that they think is a mislynch

And if you forgot who it was that declared intent, you wouldn't just throw a "presumably town player" out there like that, you'd go and check who it was

You just scumslipped, it's p obvious

[GuiltyLion]

Holy shit that's a scummy hammer. Marbles Karnos literally JUST scum slipped

[GuiltyLion]

no I think javajoe is town, read the game dear god

karnos is scum no matter what for scumslipping. If somehow java is scum, then the other scum is probably Infinity imo, maybe TNE.

[GuiltyLion]

But it won't matter because if java flips scum then lynching karnos wins the game anyway

[GuiltyLion]

Obviously guilty lion thinks I am scum with javajoe

. But if javajoe flips town, he will somehow come up with an argument for why I am scum secretly partner with a town player.

like this is just such an atrociously, unfathomably scummy post

I've been consistently saying for the past few days that I don't like the java wagon and I think he is town.

now karnos is immediately positioning himself to try to get a lynch on me on a javajoe townflip and avoid being lynched himself.

You scumslipped, you're obvious scum.

[GuiltyLion]

really.

r e a l l y

you think the fact that he called his TOP SCUMREAD a "presumably town player" is not a scumslip?

[GuiltyLion]

lol how on earth does my ISO fit with being a partner to rb

explain that one

[GuiltyLion]

except you're ignoring the ENTIRETY of me arguing with Infinity about Javajoe's alignment, and my reasons for scumreading you that had absolutely nothing to do with your lurky meaningless "request to delay hammer"

[GuiltyLion]

karnos has consistently said rb is his top scumread, literally just moments before this post called a rb+Rach+GL scumteam (so, two scum off of the javajoe wagon). Says he thinks javajoe is town.

Also karnos, apparently you think 2 scum are currently not on this wagon - which you think is a mislynch - yet you are doing nothing to appeal to the townies on the wagon to vote elsewhere. Why?

Are you kidding? Scum love a game like this. Dueling wagons on two different town. After one town gets lynched, you get the other one lynched the following day, or you start accusing town who were pushing the previous days wagon.

Scum have absolutely zero reason to jump wagons and hammer,

intent has already been given to hammer by a presumably town player

.

Then here, he calls rb a "presumably town player" as a reason why scum aren't jumping off of a javajoe wagon.

[GuiltyLion]

except you're ignoring the ENTIRETY of me arguing with Infinity about Javajoe's alignment, and my reasons for scumreading you that had absolutely nothing to do with your lurky meaningless "request to delay hammer"

Look. I was in the car reading from my phone while my wife drove home from cape cod to Wahington DC. With stops for food and such, we were driving more than 10 hours, with an upset toddler in the back seat. I read through the game as best I could, but I wasn't really focused on the game and I obviously missed details. When I finally did get home, I fell asleep.

Check my activity in other games if you want, I was being equally lurky everywhere.

if you're going to say

you haven't read the game

then don't be going accusing me of things which are completely untrue as a reason to scumread me

if you're town then you've already lost the game for town at this point as I am deathtunneling you

[GuiltyLion]

FYI GL, I'm liking these subtle subliminal implications of bolding random passages of text in bright red during your accusations.

they're not random though, they're like literally the key points of what I'm talking about

and even setting aside the fact that karnos called his top scumread (the one he believed to be about to hammer a mislynch) "presumably town", he also still egregiously misrepped me by saying I wasn't trying to derail the javajoe wagon when that's entirely what I've been doing. Like, in javajoe's own words:

Ok. I see it's pointless, GL is the only town seeing reason which means this game is all but over. GG town.

[GuiltyLion]

I didn't start accusing you of anything while I was on the road unable to fully concentrate on the game.

and somehow,

If you think I am scum and javajoe is town, then you should be trying to derail the lynch.

keep digging!

[GuiltyLion]

uh no, here was my logic which as I've said, you've been ignoring:

I'm still getting a scummy feeling from Rach. Now it seems terrible to say, given my own absense lately, but it seemed like after her push on me failed to achieve a lynch she has largely faded into the background. That seems more like a scum (who failed to push a miss-lynch) than a town action to me.

This push from karnos feels scummy to me, he's dismissing that she has stated she'll be V/LA and also self-conscious of his own hypocrisy.

VOTE: karnos

I may still go back to Hoopla but I think he's scum in either world of Hoopla's alignment and I'd like to see if anyone will follow me here.

I opened the day by saying you were a top scumread, and then you did nothing for all of D2.

[GuiltyLion]

and then this:

Like I can't even imagine a world where town!karnos can't see everything I've been doing since post 500 or so to try to expose scum elsewhere and stop the java lynch

VOTE: karnos

Let's lynch scum today.

it has almost 0 to do with your post about not wanting a hammer on javajoe.

[GuiltyLion]

like karnos you can't say I haven't been trying to derail the lynch when it's OBVIOUS that I have been trying to derail the lynch, and then invent your own reasons for why I'm scumreading you. You just can't.

[GuiltyLion]

Tbh I wasn't expecting that flip whatsoever

I think this is the best shot at scum
VOTE: rb

Why didn't you comment at all on what was going on when you hammered?

[GuiltyLion]

Vote Count

Javajoe24

(3): Infinity 324, Hoopla, RachMarie

Hoopla

(3): rb, GuiltyLion, Javajoe24

rb

(1): karnos

Infinity 324

(1): thenewearth

With 8 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline is Wednesday 3 August at 18:00 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-08-03 18:00:00)

)

Vote Count

Javajoe24

(4): Infinity 324, Hoopla, RachMarie, thenewearth

Hoopla

(2): rb, Javajoe24

rb

(1): karnos

karnos

(1): GuiltyLion

With 8 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline is Wednesday 3 August at 18:00 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-08-03 18:00:00)

)

Vote Count

Javajoe24

(4): Infinity 324, Hoopla, RachMarie, thenewearth

Hoopla

(3): rb, Javajoe24, GuiltyLion

rb

(1): karnos

With 8 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline is Wednesday 3 August at 18:00 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-08-03 18:00:00)

)

Vote Count

Javajoe24

(5): Infinity 324, Hoopla, RachMarie, thenewearth, rb

Hoopla

(1): Javajoe24

rb

(1): karnos

karnos

(1): GuiltyLion

With 8 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline was Wednesday 3 August at 18:00 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-08-03 18:00:00)

)

Javajoe24

has been lynched! He was a

Vengeful Mafia

.
As a Mafia member was lynched, we're going to a night phase next. The Mafia will choose a townie to nightkill.

The night will end at Friday 5 August at 10:30 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-08-05 10:30:00)

).

This is why I'm looking at rb

[GuiltyLion]

also karnos

Yesterday you said I didn't do anything to derail the wagon. Now you say I was strongly opposed to the lynch of scum. Which is it? Were you just lying yesterday when you said I didn't do anything?

[GuiltyLion]

yes but in a setup up where town only needs to get 2 of 3 its sub-optimal to bus

Most micros are 7-2... in this set up you're MORE likely to have bussing

[GuiltyLion]

Is guilty lion busing rb because my scum team call was too close for comfort, instant push to distance?

omg

like the level of tryhard scum in this post

VOTE: karnos

[GuiltyLion]

Obviously guilty lion thinks I am scum with javajoe. But if javajoe flips town, he will somehow come up with an argument for why I am scum secretly partner with a town player.

Ah. Well that settles it, javajoe will flip town since GuiltyLion knows his alignment pre-flip.

my only hesitation is I'm not sure if scum!karnos makes these two posts

someone give me their thoughts on this

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: rb

[GuiltyLion]

are you really pushing that two or at least one of the two other scum bussed their scum budz in a white flag or grey flag set up where town only needs to lynch two of the 3?

really seriously is that the best you got karnos?

I have played this set up before

My townread on you sours every time you push this bs. Unless you want to say scum never bus in any 7-2 setup, your thinking that scum wouldn't bus here isn't grounded in anything. Scum can bus and still have 2 members manipulating the town, that's HUGE in a micro.

[GuiltyLion]

but in either case, 2 scum lynches = loss. So why is it okay for scum to bus IB a 7-2 setup but wouldn't make sense in a 6-3? Do you understand my point??

[GuiltyLion]

yes but in a setup up where town only needs to get 2 of 3 its sub-optimal to bus

Most micros are 7-2... in this set up you're MORE likely to have bussing

[GuiltyLion]

like rb, I am also seeing karnos as town now. My L-1 vote was a bit of a reaction gambit, and I think karnos' twilight posts basically clear him and he followed up with good points at L-1.

I think we should lynch between Infinity/rb. I currently prefer rb, he's introducing this "IT MUST BE ONE OF RACH/GL" out of absolutely nowhere, it feels very much like artificially narrowing his lynchpool. I can easily see his hammer being the second bus onto javajoe, since he saw an opportune TvT occurring between karnos and myself and wanted to extend that into the next day.

I was hoping people would follow along with the VCs I quoted, since we know now that Hoopla is town it very strongly implicates the wagon-switcher as scum.

[GuiltyLion]

@ rb: I haven't really seen you talk about javajoe at all. In your suspects post at the start of D2, you listed me/karnos/GL and then later on that page you talked about being willing to lynch javajoe too, but without any real reasoning. What's your take on his play so far? Why is he in your lynch list?

Joe is nullscum for me. It's not uncommon for scum to read as null for a lot of a game and turn out to be scum. There's not many people he's interacted with directly and he slipped my radar D1. That in itself annoys me, and I'm usually okay with lynching these players because I think they DO end up flipping scum from time to time. When I have to actively go and check on a player because I don't have any immediate gut-reads or intuitions when I read their name, I don't like that.

But the thing is: this phenomenon usually comes when there's multiple players who do the same thing. Like he's not even lurkerscum, he's posting. But what's he posting? I actually do need to look @ Joe but he's not my top priority right now.

Let me look @ Joe (I'll do tomorrow) and re-assess.

What do you think of GL's townread of Joe btw Rach?

these posts pre-flip

also make me think rb is a partner.

And like, just look over rb's entire ISO when it comes to javajoe. Barely comments on him at all, always keeps him in "null scum" category. Hammers when I'm making ground with a karnos push while not following up or commenting on anything that was going on during his hammer.

[GuiltyLion]

it's either rb/karnos or rb/infinity but we should just lynch rb and win it

[GuiltyLion]

just so I'm abundantly clear

@ rb: I haven't really seen you talk about javajoe at all. In your suspects post at the start of D2, you listed me/karnos/GL and then later on that page you talked about being willing to lynch javajoe too, but without any real reasoning. What's your take on his play so far? Why is he in your lynch list?

Joe is nullscum for me. It's not uncommon for scum to read as null for a lot of a game and turn out to be scum. There's not many people he's interacted with directly and he slipped my radar D1. That in itself annoys me, and I'm usually okay with lynching these players because I think they DO end up flipping scum from time to time. When I have to actively go and check on a player because I don't have any immediate gut-reads or intuitions when I read their name, I don't like that.

But the thing is: this phenomenon usually comes when there's multiple players who do the same thing. Like he's not even lurkerscum, he's posting. But what's he posting? I actually do need to look @ Joe but he's not my top priority right now.

This is a textbook post on a partner. Gives a justified reason for possibly javajoe being scum, identifies a truthfully scummy thing about his play, but then says he's not really interested in the lynch to deflect attention and not commit to a wagon yet.

Let me look @ Joe (I'll do tomorrow) and re-assess.

What do you think of GL's townread of Joe btw Rach?

why would rb not commit to a read, yet ask RM about

my read

on javajoe? He knew joe was gonna flip scum and started trying to plant seeds where he can then start pushing on a townie with a bad read on one of his partners.

[GuiltyLion]

now I wanna see if karnos/infinity will follow me on this, and if not, explicitly give specific reasons as to why.

[GuiltyLion]

I'll hammer karnos I guess but I didn't like having him at L-1 because rb and infinity both weren't on the wagon.

What do you think about rb?

[GuiltyLion]

Also jfc RM

a) I'm not scum reading you

b) SCUM ARE IN A RELATIVELY BETTER POSITION WITH THREE MEMBERS IN THIS SETUP THAN A NORMAL MICRO WITH TWO. Therefore it is LIKELY that they will bus!

If karnos is town then we're gonna lose this game if you can't see this

[GuiltyLion]

also karnos, my problem with infinity is mostly how he was certain java was scum, when I couldn't follow the level of conviction of his scumread there.

If it's an infinity/rb team, then this game is in a lost state right now because RM will surely vote me on a town!karnos flip. Karnos may be scum but if he is I'm pretty sure rb is his partner. So let's lynch rb first

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: karnos

[GuiltyLion]

It's really annoying that everyone is ignoring me about rb. The dude is obvscum

[GuiltyLion]

Also that vote switch from karnos makes no sense really, hopping from one L-2 wagon to another

[GuiltyLion]

so RM/TNE then?

my vote on you is pretty much a survival vote tbh, better you than me

why won't you vote rb

[GuiltyLion]

if he derphammered you out of nowhere then we would powerlynch him on the next day

[GuiltyLion]

(is rosske is scum karnos is scum. oh rosske was town? well then karnos must be scum)

also ftr I see this kind of thinking from town all the time.

You have two scumreads, when you realize you're wrong about one of them it makes you double down on the second one because mathematically it's even more likely that they're scum and also essentially you don't want to be wrong twice.

[GuiltyLion]

well luckily rb has boxed himself into a townread on you so we'll see if he "changes his mind"

infinity has as well. I'm telling you, if you're town then at least one of them is scum, if not both.

[GuiltyLion]

RachMarie, if you are town please just vote thenewearth.

You can still lynch me tomorrow is she somehow flips town

, but the risk of thenewearth being scum is huge.

K I don't think town would ever say this, fully on board with scum!karnos again now.

rb/infinity, whichever of you are town, hammer away

[GuiltyLion]

FACT: If TNE flipped town and then we lynched you afterwards, we would automatically lose if you are town.

Therefore I cannot possibly see the bolded as coming from a town perspective.

[GuiltyLion]

Even if I fully trusted you, AND you were totally correct about an rb/infinity scumteam, we couldn't lynch them anyway. At most there are 3 townies who will vote them, while thenewearth leaves her vote planted on me. Town can not lynch scum today if thenewearth is town. At best, we can get rid of the weak link and lynch thenewearth.

also this isn't true, if we don't reach majority then it's plurality lynch

[GuiltyLion]

If you lynch me tomorrow and I am town, we lose. But you are more than willing to lynch me today? Does that really make logical sense to you? Either you think I am town or not.

Besides from a town perspective, we can't win with thenewearth's town tunneling. It's almost certain she is scum, so I don't really care what happens after today- the game will be over and town will win.

but YOU are the one who suggested lynching yourself for the loss, not me, and I literally cannot fathom why you would say that. Like the whole reason I've been harping on RM for this "scum wouldn't bus" nonsense is because if we lynch you and you flip town, then I will be next on her chopping block and I know that her mentality would guarantee a town loss.

second section just reads like you're trying to cover yourself after you said something nonsensical. You are arguing for both TNE = scum with certainty, and also "we need to lynch her anyway if she is town", and I'm not sure why you would appeal to both narratives.

[GuiltyLion]

No, just no.

"You can still lynch me tomorrow " does NOT equal "please lynch me"

Stop misrepresenting what I write.

this is ridiculous.

What does "you can still lynch me tomorrow" mean to you? Explain. Why would you say that to RachMarie, what was your point?

[GuiltyLion]

I will play to my win condition, getting lynched tomorrow instead of today gives town a much higher chance of winning from my perspective.

If you are lynched today and flip town, we can look at your reads and lynch someone else again tomorrow. You've already acknowledged as much earlier, the first time you were at L-1.

But getting lynched tomorrow gives town a 0% chance of winning from your assumed town perspective, which brings me back to my point again of why would you even suggest that

[GuiltyLion]

Besides from a town perspective, we can't win with thenewearth's town tunneling. It's almost certain she is scum, so I don't really care what happens after today- the game will be over and town will win.

like you literally cannot make this argument because your original phrasing was based off of the hypothetical where TNE has already flipped town:

You can still lynch me tomorrow is she somehow flips town

[GuiltyLion]

feHHhHhhh

I agree with you that activity has died, and it's really annoying. I think rb and infinity are largely responsible for this and want to lynch in between them. I think TNE is town, but certain posts of yours make me think town too.

Can. We. Please. Lynch. Rb.
Everyone should go back and look at the rb-java interactions

[GuiltyLion]

What do you mean by Rach's fake townslip which looked genuine?

If it's fake it's not genuine?

[GuiltyLion]

Can everyone please go back and reread rb+java

Please

[GuiltyLion]

How does L-1 draw LESS attention to yourself?

TNE could have instead put an L-1 vote onto Hoopla and she didn't.

[GuiltyLion]

What do you mean by Rach's fake townslip which looked genuine?

If it's fake it's not genuine?

Lol not fake

Actually you know what, this is still weird to me.

So the sentence you wanted to write out was

"There's still her

not

fake townslip which looked very genuine"

That feels really stiff and forced to me. Who calls something "not fake" and then has to clarify that it looked genuine? If you truly believed it wasn't fake, then you wouldn't feel compelled to qualify further.

And describing things as "not fake" as an adjective clause is just awkward in general

It feels like your post was crafted instead of written from authentic town point of view

[GuiltyLion]

Infinity can you go look @ GuiltyLion's 47 misreps of me on pages 2-5ish and then think about your townread for a sec? Because I'm thinking if GL is scum TNE might be buddy, and you keep thinking TNE is scum.

I asked you this before - what misreps?

just saying shit doesn't make it true, rb

[GuiltyLion]

This latest interaction is so poor and weak coming from GL as well. He's dancing around your wording like "oo that's weird" whereas with others he is like "GOT U SCUM!!"

also why don't you respond to my

actual point

about Infinity.

What do you think of his referring to RachMarie's "not fake townslip which looked very genuine"?

Is that something you could see yourself writing as town?

[GuiltyLion]

I

Wanna

Vote

RB

why not Infinity?

[GuiltyLion]

Java partner makes sense in GL. Wasn't even on the wagon.

LOL

yeah, cause you hammered randomly while I was TvTing with karnos, despite barely talking about java at all the whole two days

now you're trying to take towncred for "being on the wagon"

[GuiltyLion]

He also requested someone for a case on me and I'd be willing to bet if a wagon on me got going he'd have got on it.

your claim here is literally based on nothing

the way he asked for a case was in a much more chainsawy kind of way:

rb might be scum

whats the case on rb?

he never scumread you, said shortly after that he'd go for karnos/hoopla/rosske:

I would be ok with a rosske, karnos, Or Hoopla lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

What do you mean by Rach's fake townslip which looked genuine?

If it's fake it's not genuine?

Lol not fake

Actually you know what, this is still weird to me.

So the sentence you wanted to write out was

"There's still her

not

fake townslip which looked very genuine"

That feels really stiff and forced to me. Who calls something "not fake" and then has to clarify that it looked genuine? If you truly believed it wasn't fake, then you wouldn't feel compelled to qualify further.

And describing things as "not fake" as an adjective clause is just awkward in general

It feels like your post was crafted instead of written from authentic town point of view

I added in the word "fake" accidentally cause fake townslips were on my mind.

You're really stretching here...

Literally, guilty just assumed something in my post that wasn't there and made a whole big deal on how the wording was off in this hypothetical post.

Looks like scum desperation to me.

I asked you to clarify and you said "not fake".

I didn't think that meant you didn't mean to add fake, thought you meant you meant to write "not fake".

Regardless, it's weird that you included the word 'fake'. Again, still feels like your post is crafted. What makes you say my point is desperate?

[GuiltyLion]

and then in your next post you imply that I'm not scum?

[GuiltyLion]

I could support a GL lynch

why?

Just to be clear, that means if you are town, you have to believe in a TNE+GL scumteam and that infinity and rb are your other townies supporting my lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

You're stretching to find reasons I'm scum that aren't really there. Picking on the "not fake" wording would've been a stretch in and of itself, but you also assumed that's what I wanted to say, when I didn't explicitly say that.

I specifically asked you to explain what you meant, and your clarification was "not fake".

The fact that you're then trying to spin me responding to your own answer as scummy is some incredible mental gymnastics.

[GuiltyLion]

You're stretching to find reasons I'm scum that aren't really there. Picking on the "not fake" wording would've been a stretch in and of itself, but you also assumed that's what I wanted to say, when I didn't explicitly say that.

I specifically asked you to explain what you meant, and your clarification was "not fake".

The fact that you're then trying to spin me responding to your own answer as scummy is some incredible mental gymnastics.

I guess I could see how you would think that, but the fact that you immediately jumped to the fact that I meant to say "not fake" as opposed to not the word "fake", especially when it's unusual phrasing regardless of my alignment, is kinda skeevy.

Picking on small wording things like that is a stretch anyway, that assumption just stretches it even further.

@Mod, there are only 5 players alive

yeah I guess that's fair, I can start to see your point as well.

I'm going to do a full reread tomorrow, I don't think I can commit to a view of this game yet. I guess I'm feeling most strongly about rb scum, but what scares me is how TNE went from being gung ho karnos/infinity to wanting the rb lynch today.

[GuiltyLion]

I am down to vote rb

[GuiltyLion]

GL is scummiest by far imo and most connections to Joe. Joe was townreading him early game even before anyone suspected Joe so I really don't think it was him trying to throw us off - it's him townreading his actual scumpartner.

and yet Joe called you town due to a townslip, yet didn't actually want to fully commit to it

he was buddying me. trying to keep you afloat, yet also keeping you sliiiightly distant in case he needed room to start scumreading you

rb - why do you say my Day1 scumreads are "awful" when we both finished the day on the Rosske wagon and we are both currently scumreading Hoopla?

Tbh I don't know how someone could scumread Hoopla + Rosske Day 1. That scumteam just looks absurd to me. With Rosske flipping town I see it as a towncred move, but someone picking a Hoopla + Rosske pairing is just weird af. Scum don't defend their partner when they're at L-1 with multiple people declaring intent to give intent, it's just dumb. Plus the fact you never really aired any suspicions of Hoopla, other than just putting them in your read list (unexplained as far as I know) when you put quite a lot of effort into 'pressuring' your other 2 scumreads is telling imo.

This game setup means bussing/distancing is probably to be expected because there's extra scum. I'd be confident in calling a Hoopla + GL scumteam. Your vote on her right after my suspicion on her just makes me go, 'meh'. I meta-read TNE town as well since this is easily recognizable as the same town game I played with her very recently.

So to be clear: it's awful for reads made on Day1. Rosske flipped town, I'm town and you didn't provide much reasoning at all as to why you thought Hoopla was scum. If she flipped scum I'd be more inclined to think you were scum as well, than that you weren't. BUT - we agree on why Hoopla's townread of Rosske is suspect. So...I'm willing to re-evaluate over the course of Day 2 - even though the amount of misrepping you did of me was just absurd that I felt like you just couldn't be seriously trying to solve the game.

Plus we agree on karnos apparently, but I've said before I don't think that simple read-agreement is a strong alignment indicator.

I both agree and disagree with this post. It is true that it odd to think hoopla and Rosske were partners day one because scum hard defending a doomed partner is near suicidal. That being said it is still possible for scum to do this because it just causes wifom. Your second statement is false though, that we should expect scum to bus more this game because we have more scum. This may be a townslip for you as well, because you seem to have forgotten that we only need to lynch two scum to win. I am torn with you, while your words are seeming to rub me the wrong way, I get the gut feeling that you are town and actively trying to work this whole thing out.

I think the most likely person to be scum right now is Hoopla. I still have my reservations of karnos and RB though.

VOTE: Hoopla
The hard defense of rosske sends red flags to me as scum looking for townie points. But on the other end of the spectrum RB and karnos both seem to have hard pushed for the lynch. I find a hard defense more likely to be scum though.

Thank you for posting this, I had actually completely forgotten about that townslip by rb. I think since that slip was so subtle that it is more believable as coming from town then the other two which were blatant. Because of that I think rb is prob town.

[GuiltyLion]

also, look at your posts on javajoe that I quoted earlier. You barely talked about him, then you lazily shoved him in null scum but never really focused on his wagon until you randomly hammered it. Hoopla even called you out for not talking about him

@ rb: I haven't really seen you talk about javajoe at all. In your suspects post at the start of D2, you listed me/karnos/GL and then later on that page you talked about being willing to lynch javajoe too, but without any real reasoning. What's your take on his play so far? Why is he in your lynch list?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm ready to do this

VOTE: rb

fite me lad

[GuiltyLion]

I'm actually thinking it is a rb+RM team here after my reread because I feel RM has really coasted hard after the early towncred from her "townslip"

infinity pings me occasionally but he's also had a few posts that felt really town and he was semi-instrumental in driving the JJ lynch whereas RM just kinda vote parked on it

also I think RM was the scummiest in pushing karnos too and I doubt it was three townies on that wagon which makes infinity+rb pretty unlikely

[GuiltyLion]

grumble grumble grumble

once again low hanging fruit

while scum karnos gets a pass

hey townies how about this lets lynch real scum like we did yesterday

how about we think about the fact that scum is desperate we lynch one more we WIN THE GAME

how about the fact they are setting me up which is probably why they nked hoopla with their vig kill

was that the hammer?

Really?

shit now I am second guessing my scum read

I hate when that happens

like these posts given town!karnos are just horrendously scummy

if it's RM+Infinity team then well played cause I'm pretty sure in my infinity townread

[GuiltyLion]

LOL why is GL suddenly townreading Infinity?

humor us, why do you think that is scummy? what's the scum motivation in reassessing my read there?

[GuiltyLion]

So me listening to you and changing my mind is scummy?! What do I gain from pivoting and calling Rach scum out of nowhere when she was never going to be lynched today anyway?

If you're town infinity, your vote will lose the game. Please reread the entire game and rethink before you vote. It's frustrating as hell that my attempts to game solve aren't like blindingly transparent to whoever is town here.

Also, rb has been accusing me of misrepping him in D1 and he has not ONCE followed up on me asking him to point out where.

[GuiltyLion]

Infinity, can you reread the game and point out exactly why you think I'm scummier than rb. I'd like to see your reasoning

[GuiltyLion]

You haven't scumhunted since D2, you've been posting nothing but fluff and "why haven't we lynched scum [x] yet" throughout the entire game.

Also you kept insisting scum wouldn't bus when this didn't make any logical sense and I called you out on it multiple times

Then you threw up an incredibly disproportionate amount of AtE when people even considered scum reading you

And even now in LYLO you aren't pushing people or trying to game solve, you just beetlejuice in as soon as I change my read and call you out and say you aren't scum

[GuiltyLion]

Like seriously infinity

If you're town, and RM is town, and I'm scum with a very real chance of getting lynched today.

WHY would I start scumreading her? It would only strictly increase the chance that a town!RM would vote for me.

[GuiltyLion]

uhh and I am scum for what precisely?

(sits back and pops some popcorn)

RM why do you think that rb is town?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm most sure of scum!rb. I believe his partner is Rach but I'm not as confident in that, the point I'd just like to make to whichever of Infin/Rach are town is to pay attention to how the other one engages with rb or justifies picking me as scum instead of rb.

Also it should be abundantly clear that if I am scum, it can only be with TNE. rb suggesting that I could be "protecting a scumbuddy" with Infinity is just further evidence that he's not legitimately game solving and instead just throwing whatever he can to make his scumcase stick.

[GuiltyLion]

also, I have another point against Rach that I will post when I get to a computer in a bit

[GuiltyLion]

Alright, so

Wait this is a micro there are THREE scumz? how is that balanced I thought with 9 players it was 2?

And how do you know there are 3, Hoopla?

This is the original "townslip".

Notice how RM's response to this new information is to ask Hoopla instead of going back and reading the setup herself.

When RM starts pushing the idea that scum would not bus in this setup, after javajoe was lynched, her tone and responses are different:

are you really pushing that two or at least one of the two other scum bussed their scum budz in a white flag or grey flag set up where town only needs to lynch two of the 3?

really seriously is that the best you got karnos?

I have played this set up before

^ so first off did RM not realize this was Grey Flag when she was made the townslip? If she's played the set up before, why didn't she understand that there was a 3 person scumteam?

Here was my response to her post:

My townread on you sours every time you push this bs. Unless you want to say scum never bus in any 7-2 setup, your thinking that scum wouldn't bus here isn't grounded in anything. Scum can bus and still have 2 members manipulating the town, that's HUGE in a micro.

and her follow-up:

NOT IN WHITE FLAG OR GREY FLAG

how many times to I have to tell you this is not a 7 2 set up

this is a 6 3 set up with town only needing to lynch 2/3 of the scum tean

READ THE SETUP

please

so now when she (presumably) thinks that I myself wasn't familiar with the setup (which also implies that she thinks I am town by default), she says "READ THE SETUP", as if this is something she expects all players to do. Yet when she "townslipped", she apparently hadn't read the setup since she apparently didn't even know how many scum there were. So how can a town!RM, posting in good faith, be insisting for another player to read the setup? The first time she was confronted with new information, her first response wasn't to go and read the setup, it was to turn it around and ask Hoopla a question about it.

Her behavior with respect to reading the setup isn't consistent, and makes me think the townslip was faked.

[GuiltyLion]

this isn't for you, it's for infinity

[GuiltyLion]

no i really was not aware it was this setup when i asked

like this is just BS, the title of the damn game and the thread is "Grey Flag". if you've played Grey Flag before you should have understood what that means.

[GuiltyLion]

rb is scum

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty, you have a good point about rach's "townslip", though I could also see it from town. About the overblown AtE, that's definitely something I have seen from town!rach and it looks genuine to me.

My main issue is that everyone looks at least somewhat town to me except TNE, and I'm quite confident she's scum. rb doesn't make sense as a partner with her, but you do. You've talked about everyone except TNE today, and I especially don't like how you call out rb for bad interactions with java when TNE's were even worse. She didn't even mention him until d2, then she called out 1 post of his as misrepping her and then she voted him to L-1. Can you explain why you think she's town?

I'll reread and look for interactions sometime today.

To be honest, my townread on TNE is mostly shaped a lot by the fact that many people are calling her scum and that she L-1'd java when she could have voted Hoopla instead. Also I felt her D1 play was very town in that most of the things she did or called out matched my own intuitions

I can understand why you think we would make sense as partners, however, from my perspective where I know I'm town, I also don't see any partners for her. rb and you have both called her scum and pushed for her lynch. RM is vaguely plausible except they followed eachother around on most wagons and I don't usually see that from scum. It would also mean that RM+TNE both committed to the L-2 and L-1 bus votes on Java and I doubt that a JJ+RM+TNE team would need or decide to do that.

I can see why a TNE+GL team can loosely fit to a different townie, but I know that such a world is impossible. Which is why I would ask you to just consider me vs rb and whether you believe me to be scum or not.

[GuiltyLion]

like if it's TNE + anyone else then they would have won the game by now (unless it's TNE+rb or TNE+GL). So even if you think TNE is scum, you still have to decide between me or rb, and I think it's pretty evident that rb is scum, especially when compared with me.

[GuiltyLion]

Also, I'd ask you guys to ISO rb and Ctrl+F "TNE" and watch how his read changes. I'd quote the posts but there's too many for one post. Basically, he's quite convinced she's town and defends her on several occasions, even at one point saying Rach was more likely to have bussed JJ than TNE. Yet then suddenly he switches to GL+TNE scumteam and never explains why his townread on TNE evaporated. It's not a convincing progression at all.

This will be interesting though now that TNE has voted - assuming I'm right here and scum just haven't failed at a quickhammer for several days, then one of RM or Infinity is gonna have to start giving a reason why they absolutely will not vote rb and instead want to vote me.

[GuiltyLion]

also it really feels like RM has stalled out this LYLO and avoided giving any kind of read/push for as long as possible

[GuiltyLion]

Well you keep popping in to argue with me but then you don't do anything else

For someone who is apparently not sure about who is scum, you sure aren't being proactive about figuring it out

[GuiltyLion]

Of course my read of TNE changes. I said earlier she played like this as town and I mislynched her in my last game, but I didn't see her play past Day1 and the fact she hasn't altered and just kept tunneling on town players makes me think she's scum the same as she makes sense in multiple scumteams just like you. Her reads have aligned with Joe for the most part as well.

The fact that the 2 players who make the most sense in the most scumteams are the 2 ppl voting me makes me pretty happy calling this the scumteam. Kill either TNE or GL and town wins.

Also lol @ the idea that reads should stay consistent for an entire game. Who the fk keeps the same reads on every slot for the entirety of a game as either alignment?

My reads change depending on how the game pans out and what people do/say and how they respond to stuff, like how any player's should. Rach is town, Infinity is town. TNE/GL are scum.

see it's not that your read changed, it's that it changed randomly and with barely any explanation or obvious progression. I encourage Infinity to reread your ISO to see for himself.

There weren't any obvious targets to go after (besides myself) following the karnos mislynch, so you had to invent a partner for me and TNE was the easiest one to go for.

also this:

The fact that the 2 players who make the most sense in the most scumteams are the 2 ppl voting me makes me pretty happy calling this the scumteam

is basically a scumslip, to a town!rb GL+TNE would be

confirmed

as the scumteam right now, since Infinity and RM both posted and didn't hammer.

[GuiltyLion]

Possible scumteams:
rach/rb
guilty/rb (very unlikely)
guilty/TNE

Will reread and make a final decision tomorrow.

also lmao

if guilty/rb is the scumteam then I have thrown this game pretty hard

[GuiltyLion]

I am going to do some iso research and see what I can figure out clearly my reads are totally off base here and the only one I can be sure of being right was hoopla

Ok Im going to look at his ISO and see if I can figure out at least one of his scum budz

ATM I really am not sure who is town and scum (other than me)

my reads other than joe and hoopla have been clearly off.

I know two of you are scum.

Im gonna do some rereading with that in mind with fresh eyes

Im town reading infin and tne I know I must be wrong on one of them because I dont you and rb being a scum team together

Yet I am pretty sure that either you or rb is scum

you more than him

im not gonna vote yet not until I have some time to really look through some ISOs

Infinity, please look at this

RachMarie has said she's going to "look through some ISOs" for OVER A WEEK now.

This is stalling scum. She doesn't want to commit to anything so she defaults to "I'm going to look at ISOs". But she hasn't done any analysis, and now we have less than 1 day until deadline. Does that look town to you?

[GuiltyLion]

you always have time to come in and argue with me when I call you scum

but you never have time to do anything else

like this is the third time you hop in with a post relatively immediately after I make a point against you

[GuiltyLion]

Let's dive into this active lurking pattern (all times in USA PDT, which is GMT -7):

Here's where I complete my reread of the game, vote rb, and then explain why I think it's rb+RM, at

9:20 pm

on

Tuesday the 16th

:

I'm actually thinking it is a rb+RM team here after my reread because I feel RM has really coasted hard after the early towncred from her "townslip"

infinity pings me occasionally but he's also had a few posts that felt really town and he was semi-instrumental in driving the JJ lynch whereas RM just kinda vote parked on it

also I think RM was the scummiest in pushing karnos too and I doubt it was three townies on that wagon which makes infinity+rb pretty unlikely

RachMarie hasn't posted for 3 hours prior to this post, then posts just

10 minutes

later at

9:31

:

no I really was scum reading him

I am sorry I was wrong.

Im genuinely at a loss here in this game who the other scum are.

On

Wednesday the 17th

at

7:13 am

I see that Infinity intends to vote me, and I respond

So me listening to you and changing my mind is scummy?! What do I gain from pivoting and calling Rach scum out of nowhere when she was never going to be lynched today anyway?

If you're town infinity, your vote will lose the game. Please reread the entire game and rethink before you vote. It's frustrating as hell that my attempts to game solve aren't like blindingly transparent to whoever is town here.

Also, rb has been accusing me of misrepping him in D1 and he has not ONCE followed up on me asking him to point out where.

Then RachMarie responds

5 minutes later at 7:18 am

uhh and I am scum for what precisely?

(sits back and pops some popcorn)

Later in the day, at

12:04 pm

, I post my case on why I think the townslip was faked.

Alright, so

Wait this is a micro there are THREE scumz? how is that balanced I thought with 9 players it was 2?

And how do you know there are 3, Hoopla?

This is the original "townslip".

Notice how RM's response to this new information is to ask Hoopla instead of going back and reading the setup herself.

When RM starts pushing the idea that scum would not bus in this setup, after javajoe was lynched, her tone and responses are different:

are you really pushing that two or at least one of the two other scum bussed their scum budz in a white flag or grey flag set up where town only needs to lynch two of the 3?

really seriously is that the best you got karnos?

I have played this set up before

^ so first off did RM not realize this was Grey Flag when she was made the townslip? If she's played the set up before, why didn't she understand that there was a 3 person scumteam?

Here was my response to her post:

My townread on you sours every time you push this bs. Unless you want to say scum never bus in any 7-2 setup, your thinking that scum wouldn't bus here isn't grounded in anything. Scum can bus and still have 2 members manipulating the town, that's HUGE in a micro.

and her follow-up:

NOT IN WHITE FLAG OR GREY FLAG

how many times to I have to tell you this is not a 7 2 set up

this is a 6 3 set up with town only needing to lynch 2/3 of the scum tean

READ THE SETUP

please

so now when she (presumably) thinks that I myself wasn't familiar with the setup (which also implies that she thinks I am town by default), she says "READ THE SETUP", as if this is something she expects all players to do. Yet when she "townslipped", she apparently hadn't read the setup since she apparently didn't even know how many scum there were. So how can a town!RM, posting in good faith, be insisting for another player to read the setup? The first time she was confronted with new information, her first response wasn't to go and read the setup, it was to turn it around and ask Hoopla a question about it.

Her behavior with respect to reading the setup isn't consistent, and makes me think the townslip was faked.

RachMarie responds at

12:07 pm

, just

3 minutes later

Yes I have played the set up before

no i really was not aware it was this setup when i asked

way to misrep.

Yes I asked Hoopla my strongest town read a question PLUS I then went back and looked at the OP

Felt kind of dumb for missing it in the first place.

My statement about playing this setup before came LONG AFTER I asked hoopla and checked again the setup of the game.

Yeah I probably am in too many games.

Try again

Wind the clock forward another day, now it's

Thursday at 4:16 pm

, I post this:

also it really feels like RM has stalled out this LYLO and avoided giving any kind of read/push for as long as possible

And literally

two minutes later

:

why because I did not put down a vote right away in LYLO?

Then at

9:08 pm

, I point out this pattern of lurking:

I am going to do some iso research and see what I can figure out clearly my reads are totally off base here and the only one I can be sure of being right was hoopla

Ok Im going to look at his ISO and see if I can figure out at least one of his scum budz

ATM I really am not sure who is town and scum (other than me)

my reads other than joe and hoopla have been clearly off.

I know two of you are scum.

Im gonna do some rereading with that in mind with fresh eyes

Im town reading infin and tne I know I must be wrong on one of them because I dont you and rb being a scum team together

Yet I am pretty sure that either you or rb is scum

you more than him

im not gonna vote yet not until I have some time to really look through some ISOs

Infinity, please look at this

RachMarie has said she's going to "look through some ISOs" for OVER A WEEK now.

This is stalling scum. She doesn't want to commit to anything so she defaults to "I'm going to look at ISOs". But she hasn't done any analysis, and now we have less than 1 day until deadline. Does that look town to you?

And then 2 minutes later, the reply:

no I have been swamped with WORK STUFFS

I am already behind on a 10 page report for a client I was supposed to have to him today.

So RachMarie has enough time to be sitting here in the thread, responding to me several times over several days

within minutes

, and yet somehow she has failed to do the ISO research she has promised, has failed to voice a firm opinion. This is textbook active lurking, it's obvious that she's here and reading the thread, yet she's stalling out her vote as long as possible. Like I cannot emphasize enough how sketchy it is that she has time to respond to me literally within 15 minutes each time, yet hasn't dedicated enough time to actually offer a game-advancing post. She just argues with me to defend herself. That's it.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't really care what you've been doing

I care that:
a) you've been posting repeatedly in this thread, particularly whenever I post and call you scum - like literally, within minutes

each time

b) you haven't done anything to resolve the fact that you apparently don't know who is scum yet, and it's now <1 day until deadline

That's not how town plays.

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: hoopla

Also V/LA 12/07 to 14/07.

Noted – callforjudgement

ok I am confused December 7 to what? There is no 14th month?

Read it the other way. Non Americans do dates differently.

ohh July 12 to 14

Thanks Joe love the username dude.

All depends on the country/culture you are from. And no problem. Thanks, I love my coffee!

Rach/java interaction feels a little forced

Seriously dude you are going to view my liking his name as related to the game

ALSO I REREAD MY ISO AND DAMN I KNEW I HAD 2 SCUM ON PAGE ONE

[GuiltyLion]

k, if you think rb is scum just go ahead and hammer him and town will win

Do you really think I am bussing/crossvoting my scumbuddy with less than a day left in LYLO so that we can lose the game together?

like I just... can't even fathom that?

[GuiltyLion]

I think you're playing dumb, just like your fake "townslip"

If you are somehow town in this game and you think rb and I are throwing the game together by voting eachother, I am not ever playing with you again. I'm not saying that to be mean, I'm saying that because a town!player who can't understand the mechanics of the setup and understand how scum voting eachother in this situation would be throwing the game is not someone I would trust to win games for town.

I trust that you're more competent and smarter than that, therefore I think this is a last ditch effort to try to get infinity to townread you and vote me.

[GuiltyLion]

Wow

I played terribly this game, gg scum. Infinity I really was sure you were town after the reread, well played.

[GuiltyLion]

The wagon on karnos is what lost us the game, I was pretty sure he was town but should have fought it harder. Couldn't get anyone to move their votes and then when I was the CW I was basically forced into voting him

[GuiltyLion]

Thanks for modding CFJ! I had fun, this is a cool setup

Infinity like I said earlier, you played really well. Occasionally you pinged me horrendously but overall I couldn't sell myself on you being scum, and you did a good job making me doubt myself at a critical juncture in LYLO.

While I was stuck on rb for most of the game, I also think he did a great job somewhere around late D1-D2 when I backed off on him because I felt his frustration was genuine. I knew his arguments were always bad but I stopped chasing him and got distracted by karnos, and that was good play by him to take advantage of that.

[GuiltyLion]

well luckily rb has boxed himself into a townread on you so we'll see if he "changes his mind"

infinity has as well. I'm telling you, if you're town then at least one of them is scum, if not both.

feHHhHhhh

I agree with you that activity has died, and it's really annoying. I think rb and infinity are largely responsible for this and want to lynch in between them. I think TNE is town, but certain posts of yours make me think town too.

Can. We. Please. Lynch. Rb.
Everyone should go back and look at the rb-java interactions

Sigh

[GuiltyLion]

Yeah one cool/unique thing about this setup is that 3:2 LYLO effectively required you to nail the scumteam instead of being able to get by and onto the next day with just one scumlynch (since scum will absolutely not bus). So even though I knew rb was scum, my misread of Infinity/RachMarie was significant as it impacted my ability to appeal correctly to the other town and moved my argument in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, Infinity was able to ignore giving a hard read on rb because he could make noise about a TNE scumread which didn't fit with scum!rb