Mini Normal 1809: Game Over

[Hoopla]

Hoopla what the ever loving fuck are you doing this game

what's your issue, molla?

[Hoopla]

MASQUERADE: YOU NEED TO FULLY CLAIM NOW

[cmitc1]

As for this NEW claim, jeez, why does it all have to come out so close to deadline?

Just thinking for a moment, but if scum have a RB which seems possible based on cmitc's claim, having the two vigs shoot each other might leave us in the same situation as today if the real one is blocked.

my roleblock was probably town, I was scummy d1.

[Egg]

You know what. I'm done being patient with you guys.

I

know

Mask isn't the one-shot vigilante. Because

I'm the one-shot vigilante

.

I was gonna wait and night kill Mask tonight, because it'd be less messy. but if you guys are just gonna throw me on the chopping block then screw it.

We're lynching Mask today.

VOTE: Masquerade

I actually thought you were a cop with a guilty on Cmit earlier.

Hoopla, with Masq and Grendel shooting each other and Cmit doing his thing, scum can't block both. I say we try both plans and see what happens.

Preview edit: But Rob wasn't alive last night

[Hoopla]

I want to hammer mask.

I don't believe their claim.

Grendel, why didn't you hammer when you had the chance? ^

[Killthestory]

I think Grendel is flailing scum, at this point.

[cmitc1]

what if him claiming one shot vig is a plan to gain majority. by miss-lynching today, roleblocking the shot tonight, and pushing a miss-lynch the next day. (i am pretty sure we would lose at that point)

[BlankFace]

Wouldn't work. If Mask is 1-shot vig, no way we don't lynch Grendel tomorrow in that scenario.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, with Masq and Grendel shooting each other and Cmit doing his thing, scum can't block both. I say we try both plans and see what happens.

Hmm, although it's not completely impossible that we have two 1-shot Vigs, we should be operating under the assumption that one of the claims is false and that scum has an RB. If we follow this plan, the real vig probably gets blocked leaving a Grendel/Masq 50/50 tomorrow while cmitc can be nightkilled by scum.

I don't think this is a good result.

[cmitc1]

If we lynch scum today, I may target a more scummy player (I will leave a post explaining who it is).

[Hoopla]

Analysing which vig claim is real:

For the most part it's unusual for scum to fakeclaim vig, as this really only buys you one more night before you get lynched -- that's all this claim does. So, who is more likely to want that extra phase of being alive? Masquerade was under pressure at L-1 and forced to claim -- this claim is great to allow you to survive one more day, as towns will naturally want to test the claim and will back down. If Grendel is scum, what motivation does he have to counterclaim vig after just two votes on him now? He had a chance of being lynched today, but it was nowhere near a certainty even without claiming.

Grendel is either a vig, or he's making a strange counterclaim, when something like Cop or any other investigation role will work just as well (if not better). Occam's razor: I think Grendel has to be truthful here, as he was under less immediate pressure on his claim, as such, he has less incentive as scum to paint himself into a corner with his claim. Masquerade was already in a corner, so a vig fakeclaim makes more sense from him.

Now that I reason this out, I'm actually pretty confident of Masq-scum/Grendel-town, and really don't think Grendel does this as scum in this situation very often at all. I'd even suggest both vigs being true is more likely than Grendel being scum here.

[Hoopla]

If we lynch scum today, I may target a more scummy player (I will leave a post explaining who it is).

If we lynch a mafia RB today, target your scummiest read -- and say who that would be now.

If we lynch anything except a mafia RB, target a pool of your three most townie players (not including Grendel/Masquerade) -- and say who that would be now.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

I think we have to lynch the best chance of scum today (even though it's tempting to let this all play out at night), and to me, the best chance of doing this is nailing the 50/50 between the vigs. If the scum has a RB, things won't get solved on its own at night. We'll probably still have to decide between Grendel/Masquerade and cmitc might be dead, so we have to take matters into our own hands today and lynch the scum.

I will be voting Masquerade today, but I don't want to put him at L-1 just yet in case of a hammer cutting off discussion. It goes without saying that Masq needs to fullclaim right now on the outside chance that something can point to him as town (I can't think of anything off the top of my head, but you never know).

[Seraphim]

Guys if we have any chance of winning we have to lynch one of our claimed vigs today unless you REALLY think both of them is town which is so unlikely as to be impossible. We will feel really dumb if we lynch the wrong one, but we will have the right one tomorrow and we don't fuck ourselves in the ass. I think it is almost guaranteed that scum are going to kill cmitc1 and block our real vig unless we lynch scum today.

I need to represent the reasoning abstractly.

REAL

will be my notation for the "real" one-shot vig, and

FAKE

for our fake vig.
REAL shoots FAKE

MAFIA can do one of the following:
1. block cmitc1 and kill REAL (unlikely as FAKE dies)
2. block REAL and shoot REAL (also unlikely as it implicates FAKE heavily)
3. block cmitc1 and shoot someone else, leaving REAL alive and FAKE dead (unlikely)
4. block REAL and shoot cmitc1, implicating cmitc1's target (most likely)

Lynching REAL, worst case scenario, means that we are in LYLO buuuuut we for sure have FAKE strung up tomorrow. However, if we gamble by lynching one of our claimed vigs today and choose correctly, Mafia will block and kill REAL allowing cmitc1 to get a shot off (which he should claim) or cmitc1 gets blocked, REAL gets a shot and gets shot, or cmitc1 gets killed and REAL gets blocked but regardless of the WIFOM I think leaving both alive only fucks us over.

I am of the opinion that we should lynch Masq between the two. Not only has Grendel acted more town, he has not been mysterious about his target or whether he has a shot. Also, if Grendel was scum, I think it is highly likely that he would have hammered Masq given his claim. He might have been able to sneak out of getting lynched tomorrow and trading himself for the vig would be fucking huge. I find the fact that Masq was not hammered to greatly increase the chances that he is in fact Mafia for this reason.

P-edit: So Hoopla has pretty much already said what I was thinking and took the time to type out and I 100% agree with her plan.

[Elyse]

Whoa I missed a lot.

Sticking with my Masq vote. Like Hoopla and Seraphim have already said, he doesn't have much scum motivation to lie here.

[Hoopla]

Glad Seraphim is on the same page as me here. I'm slightly paranoid about a two real vigs universe, because if this is true, we pretty much lose the game. But to safeguard against that possibility will mean we won't be playing the percentages today, and we will lose more often in universes where only one vig is real.

Since it's most there is only one vig, we should play in a way to maximise our chances if that assumption is true... and we greatly increase our chances of winning by nailing the lying vig today.

[Hoopla]

Since it's most

likely

there is only one vig*

[cmitc1]

Since it's most

likely

there is only one vig*

should we discuss targets?

[Hoopla]

should we discuss targets?

Now that I think about it, since we're lynching a vig claim today, I think you should be targeting a pool of three townies regardless.

- If the lynch today is a Mafia RB, then the other vig claim must be true and can shoot tonight. If this happens, we don't want three deaths at night, so you should try and choose a townie.

- If the lynch today is a different type of Mafia, then the other vig claim must be true, however scum may still be able to interfere with our night actions, so you shouldn't have just one target, as mafia will have too much flexibility in their night choices. Again, you should pick from a pool of three town players.

- If the lynch today is a town vig, well, we chose wrong and you are probably dying tonight. For the sake of simplicity you should just pick three town players today.

~~

So, who are your top three town reads?

[Hoopla]

Also, another possibility I haven't considered yet is a Rolestopper for either town or mafia. And given it looks like our mod is open to funky sort of roles like a Weak Neighbouriser, I think a Rolestopper is a decent chance of existing in this game -- perhaps not as likely as a Roleblocker, but definitely something we should be considering.

This would allow one mafia to be immune to a vig kill tonight if there is a Mafia Rolestopper. It also implies that Elyse was rolestopped on N1, which isn't a bad choice if there is a Town Rolestopper, but paints her as scummy if there is a Mafia Rolestopper.

[Grendel]

I want to hammer mask.

I don't believe their claim.

Grendel, why didn't you hammer when you had the chance? ^

I suppose I don’t have to answer this but my ego is begging me to justify my play. Because I feel kind of dumb right now.

Spoiler: Post 992

I want to hammer mask.

I don't believe their claim.

Actually, this is the first time I have had somebody faking claiming my role so I wasn’t sure what to do. I thought that if I hammered right away, it’d make me a confirmed vigilante. At the time I also thought that the mafia would have a role blocker, and therefore I wouldn’t be able to prevent mlylo tomorrow. Or that I might even be night killed. I also thought there was enough support against Mask that reveling my role wouldn’t be necessary, but then you (Hoopla) and Egg lost steam, leaving the wagon.

Spoiler: 1014

Oh, I thought that maf role blockers took presence over town role blockers. I guess you're right then, waiting until tomorrow might be best.

I'll go back to my other scum read.

VOTE: Cmitc1

Then though I reasoned I could always -

not

- draw attention to myself today then night kill Mask tonight, and become conftown tomorrow. Without the threat of getting bumped tonight by outing, “here and now” keeping my role to myself seemed pretty logical. After all, Cmitic1 still looked like probscum to me. So I took the route that looked like the most efficient path at the time.

Spoiler: 1059

You know what. I'm done being patient with you guys.

I

know

Mask isn't the one-shot vigilante. Because

I'm the one-shot vigilante

.

I was gonna wait and night kill Mask tonight, because it'd be less messy. but if you guys are just gonna throw me on the chopping block then screw it.

We're lynching Mask today.

VOTE: Masquerade

I’m pretty surprised that Cmitc1 could be town right now honestly. And I was even more surprised that people were contemplating a Grendel lynch. I went ahead and role claimed to get you off my back, and onto a confscum’s back.

In retrospect maybe the best thing to do was to pretend I derp hammered to prevent the mafia from cluing onto my role. Might have even gotten them to underestimate me. But I don't like bluffing when I don't have to so... idk maybe my play was a good play after all. :/

[Grendel]

So you guys wouldn't be opposed to me targeting KillTheStory even though House was everybody's pet town read?

I was expecting some resistance to post 1061 tbh.

[Grendel]

01. Robbnva (Town Jailkeeper turned Neutral Survivor, removed from game D1

CAN I PLEASE FUCKING POINT THIS OUT

THERE'S NO FUCKING WAY ALL THESE KIDS WERE BLOCKED

I wasn't blocked. I just doubted my read a whole lot at the last second, and decided to hold off a night.

Also while I was the one to suggest there is a roleblocker I'm kind of doubting it at this point. Namely because I know Mask must be mafia, and I'm not inclined to trust Cmitc1's claim.

[BBmolla]

Hoopla what the ever loving fuck are you doing this game

what's your issue, molla?

nvm over reacted

[BBmolla]

I don't see Grendel being scum in any possibility here. Unless they're both scum I guess which is lmfao