Newbie 1725: Innocents, Inc. [Game Over!]

Harkonnen97
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Post Post #1175  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:03 pm

Shadow wanna give your reads?

Shadow_step
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Post Post #1176  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:47 pm

In post 1169, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1168, Shadow_step wrote:Yeah no that is bullshit, I never scum read BF, I just said he would be in my scum pool if we lynched MT and they flipped town.
I never voted Blank, you trying to put shade on me by saying I helped drive the MT wagon is immensely scummy as I never did that.

@Penguin ^^


You put an Intent to Hammer on him, and he was your strongest scum read if MT flipped town, who you were tunneling intently....

I'm assuming you meant Blank with the bolded.


Yes I meant blank.
But you specifically said that I drove the Blank wagon, where is the example of that ?
I gae an intent to get him to claim which the only way to move the game forward that doesn't mean I was scum reading him
..duh
Yes he "was" my strongest scum read if MT flipped town, a lot happened after that. His reaction after paladin fake hammered him was town, I'm not even sure why they decided to lynch him after that.
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Shadow_step
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Post Post #1177  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:48 pm

In post 1175, Harkonnen97 wrote:Shadow wanna give your reads?


Why do you want everything on a plate, isn't it obvious?

Pp is a scum read, Thor is a scum read by POE.
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PenguinPower
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Post Post #1178  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:10 pm

In post 1176, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 1169, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1168, Shadow_step wrote:Yeah no that is bullshit, I never scum read BF, I just said he would be in my scum pool if we lynched MT and they flipped town.
I never voted Blank, you trying to put shade on me by saying I helped drive the MT wagon is immensely scummy as I never did that.

@Penguin ^^


You put an Intent to Hammer on him, and he was your strongest scum read if MT flipped town, who you were tunneling intently....

I'm assuming you meant Blank with the bolded.


Yes I meant blank.
But you specifically said that I drove the Blank wagon, where is the example of that ?
I gae an intent to get him to claim which the only way to move the game forward that doesn't mean I was scum reading him
..duh
Yes he "was" my strongest scum read if MT flipped town, a lot happened after that. His reaction after paladin fake hammered him was town, I'm not even sure why they decided to lynch him after that.


Maybe drove was the wrong word, but supported is better. Outside of tunneling MT, it was the only thing you did if only via a What-If Scenario. You left the intent there when you left for the night with no indication of change.

Bolded is disingenuous.

In post 936, Shadow_step wrote:I will hammer Blank if needed.


Blank over Thor. Intent remained after claim.

Still...as I originally stated, I don't necessarily see you as scum right now. MT>Hark/you of those who weren't on the wagon.

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Post Post #1179  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:15 pm

I wasnot going to lynch an active player(Thor) over a lurky player(Blank) while there was no case on Thor, just that he was posting lesser than he is supposed to as IC was BS.
I didn't want a no Lynch therefore I said I would prefer blank.

What is your case on Hark?
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Loopdan
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Post Post #1180  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:39 pm

Is there a good reason why we shouldn't just mass-claim to town-confirm MT? I know that seems unnecessary, as nobody has counterclaimed, but a forced mass-claim now disallows scum to counterclaim doc later when they are at L-1, right?

Is there any town-disadvantage to this idea?

Shadow_step
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Post Post #1181  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 1:42 pm

In post 1180, Loopdan wrote:Is there a good reason why we shouldn't just mass-claim to town-confirm MT? I know that seems unnecessary, as nobody has counterclaimed, but a forced mass-claim now disallows scum to counterclaim doc later when they are at L-1, right?

Is there any town-disadvantage to this idea?


It would be a waste of time.
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Harkonnen97
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Post Post #1182  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:05 pm

Creature was a weird choice for the mafia kill. He wasn't particularly townread by many people. I skimmed through his ISO and I don't really understand what made him a threat to the Mafia. If anything, he was scumreading Thor quite a bit. My only explanation is that either Thor got rid of him, or scum killed him so it would look bad on Thor. Killing the person who is scumreading you the most is something I think newbscum would do though, so I don't think that scum!Thor would make such a bad play.

Penguin, you don't look like a newbie to me at all. You aren't making any silly mistakes that newbies usually do.. I'm getting paranoid that I might be underestimating you.

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Post Post #1183  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:09 pm

In post 1179, Shadow_step wrote:I wasnot going to lynch an active player(Thor) over a lurky player(Blank) while there was no case on Thor, just that he was posting lesser than he is supposed to as IC was BS.
I didn't want a no Lynch therefore I said I would prefer blank.

What is your case on Hark?


I don't really have one. As I said, I didn't like his end of day posts, especially the gender/emotional appeal for MT and his "rather have no lynch" statement, but I don't have a strong feeling of him as scum right now.

Harkonnen97
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Post Post #1184  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:21 pm

Peng, if you are scumreading me about my posts about MT, what do you think is more likely - that I'm defending my scumbuddy MT, or I am scum who would know that she is town and do all of that for town cred?

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Post Post #1185  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:31 pm

In post 1184, Harkonnen97 wrote:Peng, if you are scumreading me about my posts about MT, what do you think is more likely - that I'm defending my scumbuddy MT, or I am scum who would know that she is town and do all of that for town cred?


Not sure at this point.

Harkonnen97
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Post Post #1186  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:36 pm

Pretty safe answer.

PenguinPower
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Post Post #1187  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:41 pm

Not strongly scumreading you at this point, so I'm not going to put a lot of time into debating the two. Could change down the road.

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Post Post #1188  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:01 pm

In post 1177, Shadow_step wrote:Pp is a scum read, Thor is a scum read by POE.

Is this VCA PoE or some other type of PoE?

In post 1180, Loopdan wrote:Is there a good reason why we shouldn't just mass-claim to town-confirm MT? I know that seems unnecessary, as nobody has counterclaimed, but a forced mass-claim now disallows scum to counterclaim doc later when they are at L-1, right?

Is there any town-disadvantage to this idea?

No, but there's no advantage to it either. A Doc, with an already dead Cop, who claims in lylo is going to be his own adventure, and I wouldn't advocate lynching MissTerry over that late claim in any way, shape, or form.
If the claim comes prior to lylo, then there's no scum advantage.
So, basically, it doesn't matter.

In post 1167, MissTerry wrote:Thor
Tbh, I don't have a strong scumcase against him in terms of like, reasons. I do think his posts are very deliberate, and cautious. When he posts it is very focused and direct, ask question to target, respond to someone else. Read list is going to be a readlist and only a readlist. It seems like he is trying very hard not to make mistakes in his play. I know this isn't really a strong argument and that might just be his play style, but it does set off flags for me. Feel free to convince me otherwise.

I'm just noting, this is also how I would tend to describe a townread.
You're basic "case" appears to be - he looks towny due to not doing scummy things, so I think he is scum playing it safe and cool.
COuldn't the more likely logic just be - he is town?
Ockham's and all that.

In post 1176, Shadow_step wrote:But you specifically said that I drove the Blank wagon, where is the example of that ?
I gae an intent to get him to claim which the only way to move the game forward that doesn't mean I was scum reading him

Just putting my IC hat on here for a moment, as I'm not attacking Shadow over this but it's a good teaching point.
Comments like this, and the debate Penguin is having with Shadow are *entirely* due to the fact we deadlined lynched yesterday.
Shadow is literally saying he threatened to vote a slot he didn't scumread - and that's a fairly legit stance to have (albeit one, I personally, would suggest you never do - I think a no lynch is better than voting a town read, personally, that's not what Shadow did, I'm just saying as regards the mindset).

The thing is, now people are having to assess votes that were made to "get a lynch, any lynch!" wherein people legit could, and did vote for players they didn't find scummy, or barely found scummy.

The good solution to avoid this mess is to try to get an agreed upon lynch with multiple days left in the phase.
Bit of advice for this phase.
Unless you thought the end of Day yesterday was awesome and pro town - then do the same thing :lol:

serrapaladin
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Post Post #1189  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:31 pm

If there's another doctor out there, they really need to claim now. As town, counter claiming when about to be hammered or in lylo is bad play. Tomorrow could be lylo, so today is the day to claim. There's of course the chance MT lucked out by fake-claiming doc in cop-VT, but by purely probabilistic reasoning I am very unlikely to vote for MT. I'm basically never certain enough in my reads to vote against that serious odds. Also mass-claiming is a waste of time, because we should just treat a doc CC later in the game as a quicklynch.

In post 1166, PenguinPower wrote:I'm feeling that there was one scum on the wagon and one scum off the wagon...though I guess there could be two off. Both shadow and MT helped drive the Blank wagon, but shadow never got on and MT hopped off right before the end. Contrary to that, shadow really tunneled MT, but that could just be bussing...feeling that's less likely. Hark stayed away from the Blank wagon, but actively defended MT.

Right now, I'd like to focus on the one off the wagon as there is a smaller pool (not by much) to draw from. I really do not like the way Hark acted at the end of day yesterday, but gut tells me right now that's just overzealous town. Between shadow and MT, I really get a bad vibe from MT...something just doesn't feel right about her posts at end of day (I'll just vote anyone!), the way she claimed, or her posts starting Day 2.

I don't like this at all. Analysing numbers on and off the wagon is context dependent, which with Blank involved a PR claim and deadline pressure. Shadow hard-bussing MT, who happened to fakeclaim doc in the one setup where that works, for no obvious reason, is just super reaching. This reads to me like scum!peng worried that the narrative of both scum in {thor, peng, shadow} takes over, which would mean he loses, and trying to push an alternative narrative.

@thor: I think last last twilight, even though the outcome wasn't positive, felt pretty genuine from those heavily involved. I believed loop's contemplation about whether to lynch MT, and I felt her reaction to the fakehammer was genuine, as were the reaction to MT's claim, and the attempt to WIFOM the night kill.
Wandering but not lost

Thor665
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Post Post #1190  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 7:05 pm

In post 1189, serrapaladin wrote:@thor: I think last last twilight, even though the outcome wasn't positive, felt pretty genuine from those heavily involved. I believed loop's contemplation about whether to lynch MT, and I felt her reaction to the fakehammer was genuine, as were the reaction to MT's claim, and the attempt to WIFOM the night kill.

You're saying "genuine" a lot - did you get any actual reads from it?

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Post Post #1191  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 7:37 pm

In post 1189, serrapaladin wrote:I don't like this at all. Analysing numbers on and off the wagon is context dependent, which with Blank involved a PR claim and deadline pressure. Shadow hard-bussing MT, who happened to fakeclaim doc in the one setup where that works, for no obvious reason, is just super reaching. This reads to me like scum!peng worried that the narrative of both scum in {thor, peng, shadow} takes over, which would mean he loses, and trying to push an alternative narrative.


The thing about probabilities is that even the low percentage ones occur. In this case, it was a 1/6 shot of getting the call right, and MT knew she had to claim a PR. Quite honestly it was higher than that for the immediate purpose, as MT was only trying to survive the lynch, and no one new the other PR would come up in the night kill. Extract Shadow from the whole thing as I said that was a less likely circumstance. Instead of looking at the probabilities, look at her behavior.

That aside, I do think that there was 1 scum on and 1 off, as I doubt scum would push that hard for what resulted in a town lynch on N1, and absent Thor, the other four on the wagon (three specifically...Creature, you, and me) were actively discussing the lynch with the hammer being dropped by conf!town. I admit, I pushed hardest for it...but I really didn't want to end in a no lynch and we were close to deadline.

Again, I'm not saying that MT is scum...I'm saying that's my best lead at the moment. I haven't dropped a vote because I know if we get this wrong we're in LyLo.

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Post Post #1192  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:42 pm

serrapaladin wrote:If there's another doctor out there, they really need to claim now. As town, counter claiming when about to be hammered or in lylo is bad play. Tomorrow could be lylo, so today is the day to claim. There's of course the chance MT lucked out by fake-claiming doc in cop-VT, but by purely probabilistic reasoning I am very unlikely to vote for MT. I'm basically never certain enough in my reads to vote against that serious odds. Also mass-claiming is a waste of time, because we should just treat a doc CC later in the game as a quicklynch.


This.

I am going on record saying that any doc counterclaim that occurs more than 24 hours after this post will get an auto-vote from me. Counterclaim now or never.

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Post Post #1193  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:44 pm

In post 1190, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1189, serrapaladin wrote:@thor: I think last last twilight, even though the outcome wasn't positive, felt pretty genuine from those heavily involved. I believed loop's contemplation about whether to lynch MT, and I felt her reaction to the fakehammer was genuine, as were the reaction to MT's claim, and the attempt to WIFOM the night kill.

You're saying "genuine" a lot - did you get any actual reads from it?


What exactly do you think "genuine" means in the context of mafia? :roll:

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Post Post #1194  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:49 pm

@Penguin-- I don't really like MT's play either, especially Day 2. But an MT lynch is not happening anytime soon outside another player flipping doc. What do you make of Thor continuing to scum read me?

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Post Post #1195  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:53 pm

In post 1182, Harkonnen97 wrote:Creature was a weird choice for the mafia kill. He wasn't particularly townread by many people. I skimmed through his ISO and I don't really understand what made him a threat to the Mafia. If anything, he was scumreading Thor quite a bit. My only explanation is that either Thor got rid of him, or scum killed him so it would look bad on Thor. Killing the person who is scumreading you the most is something I think newbscum would do though, so I don't think that scum!Thor would make such a bad play.

Penguin, you don't look like a newbie to me at all. You aren't making any silly mistakes that newbies usually do.. I'm getting paranoid that I might be underestimating you.


Regarding your analysis of why Creature was NKed-- It is also possible that scum detected something in Creature's play that lead them to believe he was the cop. This could be breadcrumbs he left, or even just a style of play indicative of a PR. If this is the cause of his NK, then it is most likely the scum team has at least one experienced player.

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Post Post #1196  (ISO)  » Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:42 pm

This is why you should always go back and re-read the game...

Remember that time Thor voted Blank?

Spoiler: It was here
In post 921, Thor665 wrote:
In post 832, Harkonnen97 wrote:@Missy and Thor, why do you two disagree with a Paladin lynch?

Describe the case on him.
I don't think one exists.

In post 820, Creature wrote:
In post 813, Thor665 wrote:I actively dislike the serrapaladin wagon.

What about the BlankFace wagon?

I would consider that a reasonable compromise - you like it, Loop hasn't touched it with a 10 foot pole. It could provide some info.

In post 815, Loopdan wrote:
In post 813, Thor665 wrote:I actively dislike the serrapaladin wagon.


Then push something other than Loopdan.

You mean like Creature?
Also Loopdan?

Here;s a bit of advice - if you're town, push your scum reads. Don't random push emptiness.

In post 850, MissTerry wrote:Question,
If someone says their intent to hammer and the person at L-1 doesn't give a claim, can you still lynch them and how long should you wait before hammering?

Depends on your purpose for declaring the hammer intent - personally I'd maybe give them 12-24 hours after their initial non-claim post.
Not much point to not hammering them if they don't claim if you're otherwise bought into the wagon.

In post 915, Creature wrote:
In post 914, Loopdan wrote:He doesn't look like an experienced town IC trying to solve the game.

This.

Says my two top scumreads... :neutral:
Like, basically you're both being strategic/salty because I scumread you, and trying to act like I've failed to advance cases - yet oddly neither can even apparently see the case I made on the other.

Since I'm not going to be around again prior to deadline;

Vote: Blank

Do as you shall.
I will point out that there isn't actually a case on me besides Creature and Loop's harping about how I need to "do more" somehow - while apparently not finding multiple reads, multiple town and scum cases, and commenting on basically everything in the game as "enough" I suppose.
It's BS - but I've been lynched over it before, and probably will be lynched over it again - I will mock you in post game if it happens this time too.


Thor's vote on Blank doesn't work for town.

Creature had asked who was up for lynching Blank. Thor quoted this in the post above and said, "I would consider that a reasonable compromise." I talked about being OK with lynching Blank just a few posts prior in :

I'm ok with this setup. Thor and Blank are both acceptable lynches for me (although I'd prefer Thor), and I like the idea of shadow having to choose who between them to hammer. I'm not sure on his slot, so the choice and flip helps sort there, too.


In the post spoilered above where Thor votes Blank, he also calls Creature and me his top two scumreads. So Thor's two scumreads are open to lynching a player and he jumps on the wagon? How is that town? I get town jumping on a counter wagon of a townread if they themselves are at L-1, but Blank refused to put Thor at L-1 even after I pressured him to. Thor was at L-2 and joined a wagon his two scum reads were openly OK lynching.

VOTE: Thor

innocentvillager
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Post Post #1197  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:00 am


VOTECOUNT 2.1
Player Being voted by (in chronological order) Number of Votes
1. PenguinPower Shadow_step, MissTerry 2 (L-2)
2. MissTerry
3. serrapaladin
4. Harkonnen97
5. Loopdan Thor665 1
8. Shadow_step
9. Thor665 Loopdan 1


Not voting: PenguinPower, serrapaladin, Harkonnen97

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-08 01:11:34).

Thor665 is semi V/LA to August 5th.
Harkonnen97 is V/LA to August 2nd.

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.
Last edited by innocentvillager on Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Harkonnen97
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Post Post #1198  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:14 am

That's actually a really nice catch. I have no idea how to read Thor judging by his day talk, and I don't think anyone here has. But from his point of view, if his top two scumreads, who has been tunneling on the entire game, are on the same wagon - shouldn't he think that Blank is town? Well, Creature wasn't as big of a scumread for Thor as Loop, but still. The only thing that can justify his vote is if he thought that Loop was bussing his scumpartner Blank. But I don't remember Thor saying that.

VOTE: Thor665

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Post Post #1199  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:20 am

In post 1198, Harkonnen97 wrote:That's actually a really nice catch. I have no idea how to read Thor judging by his day talk, and I don't think anyone here has. But from his point of view, if his top two scumreads, who has been tunneling on the entire game, are on the same wagon - shouldn't he think that Blank is town? Well, Creature wasn't as big of a scumread for Thor as Loop, but still. The only thing that can justify his vote is if he thought that Loop was bussing his scumpartner Blank. But I don't remember Thor saying that.

VOTE: Thor665


Just to be clarify, neither Creature or I were voting for Blank at the time of Thor's vote. But we were both very clear that we were OK with lynching Blank.

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