Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[The Show Must Go On]

Votecount 3.32:

duppin (1): TellTaleHeart
TellTaleHeart (1): duppin
serrapaladin (0):

Not Voting (1): serrapaladin

With 3 alive it's 2 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2016-08-06 15:00:00).

Song:

Crazy Little Thing Called Love

Notes:

It shakes all over like a jellyfish!

[serrapaladin]

hmm

[duppin]

Lynch TTH 2016.

No but really, I am town and she is not. Since you like to talk about her meta, I encourage you to check my other games if you want to. I'm honestly not sure what to talk about at the moment. I don't think TTH play has been super suspicious even when I know she is scum. She did a decent job at distancing, although I obviously read a bit too much into her initial vote on Aristo. In hindsight, she did do a couple of questionable things. Like she tried to push a Aristo + Postie team (by questioning someone why it wasn't possible) when they were the two possible wagons. I never suggested they could be teammates, in fact I explicitly stated that the reason I moved my vote was because I found Postie more suspicious now because I failed to understand the motivation for her post and thought it was more likely to be scum pushing for town cred than two scum buddies. I actually never once really looked for possible scummates of Aristo d1. If I was scum, why wouldn't I have attempted to at least bring up possible scenarios in case Aristo ended up being lynched? Especially since it was unlikely he would survive for how long given the mislynch on Postie.

[TellTaleHeart]

My "If I Did It" was better. :\

[duppin]

The difference is that you're scum though.

[duppin]

Anyway serra, what do you make of the FA kill?

[TellTaleHeart]

The difference is that you're scum though.

Witty retorts don't make a red card black, hon.

[TellTaleHeart]

Anyway serra, what do you make of the FA kill?

Oooooo, one of the things I used in my post.
Good move.

[duppin]

I asked him, not you.

[duppin]

But I'm glad you approve!

[serrapaladin]

GL or duppin for Aris' partner

Also, I'm townreading BnL though I'm unsure if the reason I'm doing it is really justified. :S

Right off the bat, Wingback's SK obsession is pretty awful.

FA kill is odd to me, makes me think there's scum in the neighborhood or scum is very commonly townread. I'm probably game for a BNL lynch today, if that doesn't end it I'm happy to hear opinions on who I should shoot. Wingback felt very town to me in twilight and everyone else pushed on Aristophanes in a mostly convincing manner. If TTH or Elyse is scum then we're in for a rough go

Then I have excellent news. Both TTH

and

Elyse are town.

A really attentive/good TTH at this point could have anticipated this LyLo at that point in the game, and expected Elyse to vote for you. Except then Elyse got replaced.

For what it's worth, if I were scum here I wouldn't have crumbed an investigative special without having any idea of what the rest of the setup looked like. As scum, I play conservatively (vanilla claims and minimal to no bussing) because that's the style that wins scum games. Whenever I

do

take a risk (like my vig fakeclaim in the DC Universe game you quoted), it's a calculated risk based on knowledge I already have (I was a rolecop there and about halfway through a massclaim, so I already knew the whole setup by the time I made my claim).

I know that's a self-assessment and probably not worth that much to you, but that's my $0.02.

But that's the whole point of crumbing: it's not obvious or dangerous if you choose not to reveal it.

[TellTaleHeart]

I don't randomly spam pictures of food. (Pointless grabassery is in line with my scum meta.)

[TellTaleHeart]

A really attentive/good TTH at this point could have anticipated this LyLo at that point in the game, and expected Elyse to vote for you. Except then Elyse got replaced.

You are giving me far too much credit and confidence that I could pull off something that suboptimal.

[serrapaladin]

It's not suboptimal play though. The lynch/kill order at the point you claimed was fairly obvious, and you would have known that you had to kill GL, not Elyse. Clearing Elyse is most likely going to increase her townread on you and solidify her voting duppin over you.

Ugh this sucks, I really didn't want the game to go like this. I just don't know. I thought you were both pretty town throughout, and neither of your play yesterday is strong one way or the other. But I also don't really have any more angles to attack.

Killing FA would make sense just to get him off aristo, not knowing aristo would be killed. Even more so, with duppin fairly widely townread, there wouldn't really be anyone to get rid of that's suspicious of him.

I think I currently find Wingback's posts about TTH being scum most convincing, including how TTH happened to post elsewhere shortly after the thread locked for D1, as TTH somewhat avoided hammer + twilight.

[serrapaladin]

I'll aim to come to a decision tomorrow, as I don't really think my read is going to get any better with more time.

[serrapaladin]

Honestly it's a mostly a character read. I'm not getting any townvibes from you, which I usually do when your town. I will admit it is possible some of it has to do with you going V/LA so yeah.

What did this mean?

It sounds a bit dissonant after

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

[TellTaleHeart]

I think I currently find Wingback's posts about TTH being scum most convincing, including how TTH happened to post elsewhere shortly after the thread locked for D1, as TTH somewhat avoided hammer + twilight.

"Shortly" here is 3 hours between Monday morning and Monday afternoon and it's a consequence of me having work to do. I'm not here round the clock.

[serrapaladin]

Fair enough.

[serrapaladin]

So I haven't really been thinking about the implications of scum having day talk enough.

I actually feel like scum!TTH and aristo would have interacted more D1 with day talk available, as one of the things scum tend to keep an eye on is whether their interaction is believable.

duppin makes sure to have a series of questions at aristo, but I don't think any of them are very interesting. duppin also jumps onto postie at a pretty crucial moment.

[duppin]

Honestly it's a mostly a character read. I'm not getting any townvibes from you, which I usually do when your town. I will admit it is possible some of it has to do with you going V/LA so yeah.

What did this mean?

It sounds a bit dissonant after

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

It means exactly what it said. I didn't think he was playing his town game, but I wasn't sure this was his scumgame either and my read might've been influenced by him simply being V/LA.
This was the main reason the whole Postie thing happened. (she agreed it wasn't his towngame, which was why I disliked her reaction).

[duppin]

So I haven't really been thinking about the implications of scum having day talk enough.

I actually feel like scum!TTH and aristo would have interacted more D1 with day talk available, as one of the things scum tend to keep an eye on is whether their interaction is believable.

duppin makes sure to have a series of questions at aristo, but I don't think any of them are very interesting. duppin also jumps onto postie at a pretty crucial moment.

What do you mean by a crucial moment? I started the train on Postie, so unless you think believe I calculated that Postie would jump in with a questionable defense of Aristo so I could get a wagon on her, I'm not sure why you believe this was me attempting to deflect. I mean for some reason pretty much everyone agreed with my Postie read, so do you believe I was just banking on someone screwing up when I was pushing on Aristo?

Also as for the FA kill, why would I kill FA? You claim I was universally townread, but Postie and Elyse both called me out. If I wanted to win this game, why would I not get rid of people not trusting me? I was in a pretty good position as you said so yourself, so why wouldn't I just get rid of the threats to me and go for a easy victory? As scum there is no way I would've taken Elyse, who didn't seem to trust me + TTH, my top town who cleared Elyse. How would I ever be able to win that? I know this is such an useless statement as it is all WIFOM, but I guarantee I would've killed Elyse n1 if I was scum.

[duppin]

And we don't know if mafia has daychat, but if they do why would you expect TTH and Aristo to interact more? She had already gotten herself into a excellent position should Aristo flip scum due to her early push on him.

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: Aristophanes

L-1

Alright-y, I'm about to go to sleep but I am all caught up on reading the thread.
Quick thoughts: I like GuiltyLion for town and I still like my vote on Ari. I would be good with that or a Postie lynch.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vote Postie

I'm going to ask you for the third time (or fourth?), what was the purpose of #244?

I fail to see the town motivation behind it. Basically what you said was that you agreed this wasn't his town game but just him playing differently, which honestly just implies that he could be either alignment. That is correct.
Seeing as you agree it isn't his town game, don't you think it is a good idea to pressure him to get a better read? I thought so, apparently you did not because otherwise I do not see why'd you post that. I felt like you were trying to discourage me from voting on him but on the otherhand you weren't willing to commit to a townread. Seemed a bit like fencesitting.

So what I wanted to know was why you did not agree with my vote on him. The most logical answer was that it was because you were townreading him, so I asked you if you thought him playing differently was towny. Your response was no, but in the very same post you claimed you had a gut town read on him, which I thought was a bit weird but it could possibly explain why your post, although I still don't like how you worded it.

But if that is the case, please explain why you thought he was town at the time? Because the posts you brought up in #279 all came after #244, so obviously they couldn't have been part of your initial gut read on him.

Anyway, I still find Aristo suspicious, but at the moment I think you are more likely to be scum. You could very well be scum just fishing for townc redit (if Aristo is a mislynch). I think this would explain the weird progression of your read. (playing differently > gut town read > hard defend). In this world it would seem like you tried to keep your options open at first (#244 feels a bit like fencesitting) but then when questioned you commit to a townread on him.
It's also possible it was just you posting just to get some content in.

So yeah Postie, plx stop dodging and answer my question. Why did you feel the need to question my vote on Aristo? If it was because you were townreading him, why were you being so cryptic and can you explain your town read? (as in why you were townreading him at this point)

[duppin]

Look at the actual content instead. I can understand why you might think the timing looks a bit off, but I think this would be a terrible play as scum. Basically I would openly be deflecting off Aristo, who was at L-1 and pretty much the obvious lynch d1 to try and get another train going? I'd never play like that, I don't try to save my teammate by deflecting as scum. In fact the last game I played my vote was parked on my partner d1 even when she was at L-1 I believe. I bus if I consider my teammate to be doomed, which would definitely have been the case for Aristo there. If you think I'm scum, you should consider it a possibility that I was bussing Aristo which is fair, not that I tried to deflect when he was on L-1 and looking very likely to get lynched. You'd still be wrong though.

[duppin]

Also I probably would have went for the "postie protecting scumbuddy" angle in that situation if I was scum, because it was very likely that Aristo was going to get lynched, but I didn't because I thought it was unlikely. TTH on the other hand did later d1 touch the possibility of them being scumbuddies.