Mini Normal 1809: Game Over

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 3.01

Hoopla (2): Elyse, Grendel
BlankFace (1): Seraphim

No Vote (5): BlankFace, Hoopla, BBmolla, Killthestory, Egg

With 8 players living, a lynch requires 5/8 votes.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-08-04 08:00:00)

NOTES

None

[Dierfire]

MOD: Would a Weak Neighbourizers' action still succeed on a mafioso despite dying?

Yes, a Weak Neighborizer who successfully targets a Mafia player would both add that player to the Neighborhood PT (Neighborizer) and die (Weak).

[BBmolla]

whelp.

[Elyse]

Hoopla said THE mafia PR as in she knows there's only one.

Also why would scum block Grendel if he was going to shoot town?

I think from the context of my posts, it is obvious I am talking about the scum power capable of blocking and interfering with our actions. If they have an encryptor or something else, so be it, but most of the time, the scum will just have a roleblocker/rolestopper here -- and really, a blocking role is the only one we really needed to worry about. If you think it's likely or at all possible the scum has two blocking roles when the town already has a JK too, then I don't know what to say.

Me being shot last night would actually be beneficial for the town, as it removes me as a possible mislynch today/tomorrow and doesn't cost the town one of our two chances at hitting scum.

So you're arguing that scum blocked the kill so they could get a mislynch today?

I find it much more likely that scum was worried they would die and blocked the kill rather than "hmm Grendel is probably gonna shoot town but we should block it anyway and try to use that to mislynch someone." A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[Hoopla]

So you're arguing that scum blocked the kill so they could get a mislynch today?

I find it much more likely that scum was worried they would die and blocked the kill rather than "hmm Grendel is probably gonna shoot town but we should block it anyway and try to use that to mislynch someone." A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Scum need two mislynches to win. Realistically, we're probably only going to choose between 4-5 of those people. We get two chances to be right. With Grendel shooting, we have a third chance to be right. Even if scum knew Grendel was 100% killing a townie, this outcome

still

improves the lynching odds of our two chances during the day as it removes a wrong target for both of our lynch chances. No vig kill is by far scum's best night outcome regardless of who the scum is. Are you being deliberately obtuse here? Because I don't know any other way to explain this more simply...

[Hoopla]

MOD: Would a Weak Neighbourizers' action still succeed on a mafioso despite dying?

Yes, a Weak Neighborizer who successfully targets a Mafia player would both add that player to the Neighborhood PT (Neighborizer) and die (Weak).

^ This information doesn't clear molla, as he gets that neighbour topic regardless of his alignment.

~~

Elyse: so far your reason for voting for me is:

1) my wording on wanting to lynch THE scum power instead of A scum power. I think I've debunked this.
2) casting doubt on molla:

VOTE: Hoopla

Also for casting doubt on BB.

The above shows I was right to follow this line of inquiry, as we now know molla is not confirmed town. I haven't done a reread with these new flips integrated into my analysis yet -- I wanted to do it yesterday, but my time was consumed by figuring out what to do with our claimed power.

I'll try and get a good post outlining my take on the game tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

*this new flip

[Elyse]

My bad. I did not think that they would be added even if scum.

So yes you were correct to do that. I still think you are scum, though I thought I had more of a slam dunk than I did. Your handling of the Masq lynch was very strange. It seemed as though you were trying to find a way to keep him alive and then decided there was no way and just bussed him.

[Egg]

Vote Hoopla

[BlankFace]

Prodge for right now, rereading. This game should be solvable today.

[Grendel]

Confirmed scum, Mask, didn't think Rob was town. I pretty sure he unvoted Rob some 200-300 posts after post 450, yet... doesn't change that fact that Mask was pushing OB town for a dumb reason, and nobody called him out on it later. It also doesn't change the fact that Mask was voting OB town Rob While Hoopla was condensing the wagons. So Hoopla can't say she didn't notice Mask doing it. If she thought that everybody was on the same page regarding Robbvna why didn't she think Mask's vote was off. At least it would've made Mask good D1 lynch material like Vedith or Blank. Who was the instigator of that day's wagons, well Hoopla of course.

Aside from that I didn't like her interactions with Mask yesterday EoD, and how she talked me out of the likelihood of their being a role blocker. But I guess those could be calked up to more gut influenced reads then provable intent. I feel very comfortable voting Hoopla.

VOTE: Hoopla

That line about Rob's flip was pretty much a throwaway comment, as all Rob did was pollute and annoy everyone in the game, town and scum alike -- it's hard to use his flip for anything meaningful. I don't really have any other defense for that, because it doesn't seem like something I should need to defend, but I find it genuinely baffling that this seems to be the backbone of your case against me.

I just wanted to point out you let Mask's scum read of a generally town read player slip through the cracks in a situation where Mask had every right to be on the chopping block as Vedith, or Blank. His vote was still on Rob when you were organizing that days wagons. I think you would be more perceptive of people voting your town reads. Regardless of how unhelpful/loud/bleh that specific town was. And no, it isn't the back bone of my case. I just brought up a point nobody else had mentioned yet.

It was more your interaction with Mask yesterday then anything. I should have stressed that instead of saying "aside from Mask pushing town", but it is fine, if you want me to elaborate on why I think you D2 EoD is scummy I will. Well, tomorrow, Its getting late on my end.

Prodge for right now, rereading. This game should be solvable today.

What are your reads rn?

[Hoopla]

My bad. I did not think that they would be added even if scum.

So yes you were correct to do that. I still think you are scum, though I thought I had more of a slam dunk than I did. Your handling of the Masq lynch was very strange. It seemed as though you were trying to find a way to keep him alive and then decided there was no way and just bussed him.

Firstly, your accusation of my handling of Masquerade's lynch being strange is slanderous and ignores the reality that I was key component in his lynch being achieved. During the claim analysis, I was one of the first to declare him as scum instead of Grendel and steered the town away from potential night action plans to resolve the vig claims, and instead helped ensure town lynched a vig claim and the correct one at that. Earlier in the day, I was again influential in his wagon being promoted. Lets look at the vote count from early on D2:

VOTE COUNT 2.02

Masquerade (2): BBmolla, Egg
cmitc1 (2): Grendel, Killthestory
Hoopla (1): Elyse
Egg (1): Masquerade

No Vote (4): BlankFace, cmitc1, Wake88, Hoopla

In 902 and 903 I outline my thoughts on the D1 wagons, declare the game makes more sense with Masq as scum and put him on three votes, helping propel his wagon above cmitc and into dangerous territory. Elyse offers piecemeal observations like this about Masq:

Yeah that was pretty fake.

Masq is a good vote. I'll explain my Hoopla scumread later when I get on a computer.

This is Elyse giving lip service to the Masq wagon unfolding while she primarily spends the start of D1 dropping mega-posts like 885 about me. She eventually yields to the Masquerade wagon after I've pushed it to three votes:

VOTE: Masquerade

More comfortable with this. Still think Hoopla could be scum but she makes the most sense with Masquerade and brings up a good point about no one else including him in the wagons.

Suddenly she's more comfortable with this? What changed? The only thing that changed was the tide turning towards Masq, and I find it strange she is sheeping my opinions about Masq and buddying with me when I am her primary suspect. If my idea about Masq-scum is such a good point, that she is nodding along with her scum-read (me) and agreeing with it, how can she say my handling of the Masq lynch was strange when I was a key player in getting it achieved?

~~

I'm not as slam-dunk on Blankface/Elyse as Seraphim is, as I think Sera is occasionally scum instead of Blankface and is buddying my reads knowing I'll take the fall for a hypothetical Blank-town mislynch. This would actually be a good scum play on his part. I tend to think he is earnest though, and realistically, the best chance of town winning this game is through cooperation with him as it's definitely possible this is town-Sera here, and if he is, we'll be hard to stop.

I also think there are possibilities of molla, Egg or KTS scumteams, but their play just really makes more sense as town and picking any of them for the lynch seems like a left-field gamble steeped in conspiracy theories, and I'm certain there's never more than one scum here (but usually zero).

Playing the percentages, I'm inclined to believe Blank/Elyse is the most likely scumteam too. Blankface is the better lynch today as the scum not on Masq's wagon has fewer possible candidates, while there's a couple other players who could feasibly be bussing-scum, although I think Elyse's reluctant bussing (as depicted in this post) is the most likely scumbag on that wagon.

VOTE: Blankface

[Hoopla]

It was more your interaction with Mask yesterday then anything. I should have stressed that instead of saying "aside from Mask pushing town", but it is fine, if you want me to elaborate on why I think you D2 EoD is scummy I will.

I'd like that when you get the chance.

[Hoopla]

Despite molla not being cleared, I find it quite town he claimed to be neighbourised 10 minutes into the day, which is presumably when he'd have received his neighbourhood invitation. I think this play makes sense as town excited to be potentially be cleared, whereas he potentially thinks about it (and its consequences) for more than 10 minutes as scum. Not saying he can't as scum, just it's less likely. I have him behind Elyse and Blank quite significantly now.

[Hoopla]

Sera, don't forget that hoopla pushed for us to let masq live and confirm the claim before finally voting Masq (yes i'm aware i did the same thing lol). It's not like hoopla hardbussed if she's scum.

Why is this fiction about me pushing to let Masq live being circulated? I feel like I need to quote this for you and Elyse:

Analysing which vig claim is real:

For the most part it's unusual for scum to fakeclaim vig, as this really only buys you one more night before you get lynched -- that's all this claim does. So, who is more likely to want that extra phase of being alive? Masquerade was under pressure at L-1 and forced to claim -- this claim is great to allow you to survive one more day, as towns will naturally want to test the claim and will back down. If Grendel is scum, what motivation does he have to counterclaim vig after just two votes on him now? He had a chance of being lynched today, but it was nowhere near a certainty even without claiming.

Grendel is either a vig, or he's making a strange counterclaim, when something like Cop or any other investigation role will work just as well (if not better). Occam's razor: I think Grendel has to be truthful here, as he was under less immediate pressure on his claim, as such, he has less incentive as scum to paint himself into a corner with his claim. Masquerade was already in a corner, so a vig fakeclaim makes more sense from him.

Now that I reason this out, I'm actually pretty confident of Masq-scum/Grendel-town, and really don't think Grendel does this as scum in this situation very often at all. I'd even suggest both vigs being true is more likely than Grendel being scum here.

UNVOTE:

I think we have to lynch the best chance of scum today (even though it's tempting to let this all play out at night), and to me, the best chance of doing this is nailing the 50/50 between the vigs. If the scum has a RB, things won't get solved on its own at night. We'll probably still have to decide between Grendel/Masquerade and cmitc might be dead, so we have to take matters into our own hands today and lynch the scum.

I will be voting Masquerade today, but I don't want to put him at L-1 just yet in case of a hammer cutting off discussion. It goes without saying that Masq needs to fullclaim right now on the outside chance that something can point to him as town (I can't think of anything off the top of my head, but you never know).

^these posts were critical in determining that we lynched a vig-claim D2 (and the correct one at that). And this was before Seraphim, Elyse and anyone else was going in this direction regarding what to do. Your current idea at the time of these posts was still having Masq/Grendel shoot each other at night, by the way. I was moving towards lynching a vig-claim.

[Seraphim]

We are not lynching Hoopla today holy shit. Absolutely not. I don't think anything elsr needs to be said on that topic.

Sorry for my absense, been dealing with a lot of RL stuff, I'll have more things to say tonight. If anyone has any direct questions for me, i would appreciate if those could get reposted. I've been reading the game but don't remember everything and I might miss it in a reread.

[Killthestory]

hey guys i feel like voting elyse

VOTE: elyse

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 3.02

Hoopla (3): Elyse, Grendel, Egg
BlankFace (2): Seraphim, Hoopla
Elyse (1): Killthestory

No Vote (2): BlankFace, BBmolla

With 8 players living, a lynch requires 5/8 votes.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-08-04 08:00:00)

NOTES

None

[Elyse]

V/LA until Tuesday

[Elyse]

Hoopla you did want Masq alive early on in the day. Just because you switched at the end when it made you look bad doesn't mean your original stance wasn't there. I was on Masq the entire day because it was obvious he was lying.

I agree that BB is town. I don't think he would share something like that in an attempt to confirm himself as town if he were scum because it's easy to verify.

As far as me agreeing with you re: Masq, bussing exists. I'm not going to ignore someone's good points because I think they're scum. Sometimes scum make the best cases on their buddies.

My pool is Hoopla, sera, Blank, and kts.

[Grendel]

It was more your interaction with Mask yesterday then anything. I should have stressed that instead of saying "aside from Mask pushing town", but it is fine, if you want me to elaborate on why I think you D2 EoD is scummy I will.

I'd like that when you get the chance.

I have been unable to honor this today. Tomorrow looks busy as well. I have Summer finals so I am pretty distracted right now.

Friday looks good though.

Sorry for the hold up. ^^;

In the meantime I would like to know if your push on me yesterday prior to my claim was solely PoE, or if you had an actual case against me.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla you did want Masq alive early on in the day. Just because you switched at the end when it made you look bad doesn't mean your original stance wasn't there. I was on Masq the entire day because it was obvious he was lying.

When? Give me specific posts.

You weren't on Masq the entire day. You were FOURTH on his wagon and were pushing me hard instead of Masquerade before his wagon became a thing.

[Hoopla]

In the meantime I would like to know if your push on me yesterday prior to my claim was solely PoE, or if you had an actual case against me.

Mostly PoE based on my slew of town reads. My reasoning for Blank/Elyse today is similarly motivated.

[Elyse]

When you pushed Grendel??? You are the only reason that the whole double vig claim happened. And before that you voted Egg.

Also lol I'm dumb. I meant the whole time after Masq claimed not the entire day. For some reason I feel like this game has gone on longer than it has.

[Hoopla]

When you pushed Grendel??? You are the only reason that the whole double vig claim happened. And before that you voted Egg.

Also lol I'm dumb. I meant the whole time after Masq claimed not the entire day. For some reason I feel like this game has gone on longer than it has.

If there was only one vig claim, lynching it that day makes no sense since we have a chance of confirming it at night. Grendel counterclaiming was the catalyst for the town truly catching Masquerade.

You were even happy to pursue other options despite being sold on Masq's claim:

I'd rather lynch cmit. I'm townreading Egg.

So, lets not get all high and mighty on ~knowing~ that Masq's claim was straight up scum. If anything, I find it more suspicious you weren't doing your due diligence to consider the possibility of him being town at all.