Mini 1811 [Game Over]

[Nahdia]

Votecount 5.00

Not Voting (4):

MURDERCAT, Accountant, Xkfyu, Impoetic

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-08-14 23:30:00)

It is now Day 5.

[MURDERCAT]

Accountant you are all but confirmed. If we no lynch today you will die, so I think we should just go for it. You are driving this thing now though.

Xk and Impo, please post your best evidence that the other one is scum and go ahead and claim too for good measure. Reasons you can't be scum with Tam/Ira will also be accepted.

FWIW, I'm feeling very confident we are going to win this.

[Accountant]

for the record xkfyu is significantly more scummy in my eyes than either impo or murder, so xk if you're town I suggest you make a damn good case against whoever you think is scum

[Xkfyu]

I'm getting caught up from the weekend. I'll post my thoughts shortly.

[Accountant]

I'd like to apologize to Sonrio for being wrong about him. Sonrio, may your soul rest peacefully in the dead thread.

[Xkfyu]

Ok time for a little VCA.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.17

Votecount 1.17

Tam

(4):

Bacde

,

JaeReed

, MURDERCAT, Impoetic

Robbnva

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

iraonavp

(1):

Accountant

evilpacman18

(1):

JarJarDrinks

Not Voting (4):

Robbnva

,

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

, Xkfyu

This was right after Robbnva replaced Trivium. I had been scum reading Trvium, until I saw his confirmation bias, causing me to town read him.

Accountant was voting ira, while Tam was the vote leader. If scum Accountant wanted to distance from a buddy, he could have just voted Tam, instead of ifa. That makes me think Accountant is town with a legitimate scum read on ira.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.18

Votecount 1.18

Tam

(4):

Bacde

,

JaeReed

, MURDERCAT, Impoetic

Sonrio

(2):

JarJarDrinks

, Xkfyu

Robbnva

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

iraonavp

(1):

Accountant

Not Voting (3):

Robbnva

,

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

Pretty much the same as above, except JarJar and I were both voting Sonrio. Accountant still probably town. Which means that one of MURDERCAT and Impoetic are on the Tam wagon for the bus.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.19

Votecount 1.19

Tam

(4):

Bacde

,

JaeReed

, Xkfyu,

JarJarDrinks

Robbnva

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

iraonavp

(1):

Accountant

Not Voting (5):

Robbnva

,

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

, Impoetic, MURDERCAT

Before this VC, JarJar and I both move back to Tam in posts 1052 and 1054 respectively, putting her on L-1. MC immediately unvotes Tam in 1057, and Impoetic unvotes in 1063.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.20

Votecount 1.20

Tam

(5):

Bacde

,

JaeReed

, Xkfyu,

JarJarDrinks

, Accountant

Xkfyu (1):

MURDERCAT

Robbnva

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (4):

Robbnva

,

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

, Impoetic

MC starts the counter wagon on me, knowing that JR would follow him and that Rob was fine with lynching me.

Accountant has now moved to Tam, but ira stays on Accountant. Again, this move looks genuine to me. The fact that ira didn't vote Tam suggests that scum weren't trying to bus here.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.21

Votecount 1.21

Tam

(4):

Bacde

, Xkfyu,

JarJarDrinks

, Accountant

Xkfyu (3):

MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

Robbnva

Robbnva

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (3):

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

, Impoetic

JR and Rob have now voted me, and I'm a serious counter wagon to Tam.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.22

Votecount 1.22

Xkfyu (3):

MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

xSoniaNevermindx

Tam

(2):

Bacde

, Accountant

evilpacman18

(2):

Xkfyu,

JarJarDrinks

xSoniaNevermindx

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (3):

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

, Impoetic

JarJar and I are voting pacman now, giving the vote lead to me. I started that move to see who was really willing to switch (explained in 1376). I moved back to Tam in the following post.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.23

Votecount 1.23

Tam

(4):

Bacde

, Accountant, Impoetic, Xkfyu

Xkfyu (3):

MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

xSoniaNevermindx

evilpacman18

(1):

JarJarDrinks

xSoniaNevermindx

(1):

Tam

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (2):

Sonrio

,

evilpacman18

I'm back to voting Tam, but I'm still the coutner wagon to Tam.

Spoiler: Votecounts 1.24 and 1.25

VCs 1.24 and 1.25 are unchanged from VC 1.23, except for that Tam unvoted Sonia.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.26

Votecount 1.26

Tam

(5):

Bacde

, Accountant, Impoetic, Xkfyu,

evilpacman18

Xkfyu (3):

MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

xSoniaNevermindx

evilpacman18

(1):

JarJarDrinks

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (2):

Sonrio

,

Tam

Pacman has voted Tam. At this point, Tam and i have been the only major wagons for a long while. I really can't imagine that NO scum has been on my wagon, but we know that neither Tam nor ira ever voted me. This really makes me think that MC is scum.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.27

Votecount 1.27

Tam

(5):

Bacde

, Accountant, Impoetic, Xkfyu,

evilpacman18

evilpacman18

(4):

JarJarDrinks

, MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

iraonavp

Not Voting (3):

Sonrio

,

Tam

,

xSoniaNevermindx

There is no further interest in lynching me, so MC follows JarJar onto pacman, with JR following him, along with ira.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.28

Votecount 1.28

Tam

(6):

Bacde

, Accountant, Impoetic, Xkfyu,

evilpacman18

,

Sonrio

evilpacman18

(5):

JarJarDrinks

, MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

iraonavp

,

Tam

Not Voting (1):

xSoniaNevermindx

And now Tam.

Spoiler: Votecount 1.29

Votecount 1.29:

evilpacman18

(7):

JarJarDrinks

, MURDERCAT,

JaeReed

,

iraonavp

,

Tam

, Impoetic,

xSoniaNevermindx

Tam

(5):

Bacde

, Accountant, Xkfyu,

evilpacman18

,

Sonrio

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

And then Sonia hammers. This final D1 vote count still leads me to believe that Accountant is town, and that either MC or Impoetic are scum. I'm going with MC.

He was fine to vote for Tam earlier, but once she got to L-1, he was really pushing for someone else to be lynched, other than her.

[Xkfyu]

VCA for D2.

Spoiler: Votecount 2.01

Votecount 2.01

Tam

(2):

Accountant,

JaeReed

JarJarDrinks

(2):

Impoetic, MURDERCAT

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (4):

JarJarDrinks

,

Sonrio

, Xkfyu,

Tam

Tam is obviously getting another wagon in D2, after pacman flips town. Again, we see MC trying to avoid that wagon.

Spoiler: Votecount 2.02

Votecount 2.02

Tam

(3):

Accountant,

JaeReed

, Impoetic

JarJarDrinks

(1):

MURDERCAT

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (4):

JarJarDrinks

,

Sonrio

, Xkfyu,

Tam

You could have said, after that last VC, that Impoetic was also avoiding the Tam wagon, but we see here that Impoetic moves to Tam fairly easily, making Tam the vote leader.

Spoiler: Votecount 2.03

Votecount 2.03

Genji

(2):

Accountant,

JaeReed

Xkfyu (1):

Genji

Sonrio

(1):

JarJarDrinks

JarJarDrinks

(1):

MURDERCAT

Accountant (1):

iraonavp

Not Voting (3):

Sonrio

, Xkfyu, Impoetic

Genji has replaced Tam. Accountant still voting for Genji, and MC still on JarJar.

Spoiler: Votecount 2.04

Votecount 2.04

Genji

(4):

Accountant,

JaeReed

,

JarJarDrinks

,

iraonavp

Xkfyu (1):

Genji

JarJarDrinks

(1):

MURDERCAT

Not Voting (3):

Sonrio

, Xkfyu, Impoetic

Ira has moved to Genji. Obviously to get the town credits.

Spoiler: Votecount 2.05

Votecount 2.05

Genji

(5):

Accountant,

JaeReed

,

JarJarDrinks

,

iraonavp

,

Genji

JarJarDrinks

(1):

MURDERCAT

Not Voting (3):

Sonrio

, Xkfyu, Impoetic

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Now, here's what is really scary. Genji self hammers here. Why do that in this situation? If you're gonna give up and self hammer as scum, then why not let your scum buddy hammer to at least try and win some town credit?

The answer could simply be that all her buddies were already on her wagon. This is the first thing that I have seen that makes me suspect Accountant. However, if he's scum, then all of the "ira is definitely scum" stuff was nothing more than one enormous bus.

I'm pretty sure that it isn't Impoetic now. So, it has to be one of the two heavily town read players. Is it MC, who avoided the Tam/Genji wagon (possibly the most obvious choice), or is it the least obvious choice, Accountant, which would mean that he hard bussed both of his buddies for the first 3 day phases?

[Accountant]

Now, here's what is really scary. Genji self hammers here. Why do that in this situation? If you're gonna give up and self hammer as scum, then why not let your scum buddy hammer to at least try and win some town credit?

The answer could simply be that all her buddies were already on her wagon

Traditionally scum self hammer to cut short day and deny information to town doing VCAs. Also at that point Genji was such a goner that any towncred from hammering him was approximately 0

[Xkfyu]

Now, here's what is really scary. Genji self hammers here. Why do that in this situation? If you're gonna give up and self hammer as scum, then why not let your scum buddy hammer to at least try and win some town credit?

The answer could simply be that all her buddies were already on her wagon

Traditionally scum self hammer to cut short day and deny information to town doing VCAs. Also at that point Genji was such a goner that any towncred from hammering him was approximately 0

I don't disagree with you. There was very little town credit to be had, especially since JR counter claimed him.

I just know that if I had been Genji, I would have just told my remaining buddy hammer me, instead of doing it myself. Similarly, had I been Genji's buddy, I would have taken the opportunity to hammer him myself, instead of letting him do it.

Like I said though, it's the only real thing that I can point to that makes me suspicious of you. I'm still leaning heavily towards MC being the last scum.

[Xkfyu]

Accountant you are all but confirmed. If we no lynch today you will die, so I think we should just go for it. You are driving this thing now though.

If Accountant is town, he is definitely gonna die tonight, regardless of whether we lynch or not. No lynching really isn't an option, though.

Xk and Impo, please post your best evidence that the other one is scum and go ahead and claim too for good measure. Reasons you can't be scum with Tam/Ira will also be accepted.

I'll gladly answer any questions from anyone, but I won't town case myself. No one should ever listen to someone town casing themselves.

Also, I'm pretty sure that Impoetic is town. So, I'm not going to manufacture some fake scum case on her.

The irony of this post is that you clearly said that Accountant is in the driver's seat, while simultaneously trying to take the lead by putting forth Impoetic and I as the only two lynch candidates for today.

[Impoetic]

ugh I CBA to read this and elaborate on what i saw in xkfyu but don't prod me yet I'll do this in a day or so when I'm safely home with my cats and not on a 17 hour flight or feeling apathetic about everything

I was feeling pretty confident it was xkfyu w/o even reading murdercata nd accountant bc I tr them both and jaereed hard tr'd them but the fact that xkfyu doesn't sr me according to the bottom post on this page -- which i only read like a couple words of by chance, mind you -- is a tiny bit worrisome. Not sure how much i should be upsettled (fake word is intentionally fake) by this and will perhaps contemplate it on the wya home but yeah

this is a really long prod dodge and my way of procrastinating on packing i hate packing my mom's making me unpack all my clothes and actually FOLD THEM aaaaaah :c

[Accountant]

If Accountant is town, he is definitely gonna die tonight, regardless of whether we lynch or not.

Does this imply you don't think we'll lynch scum since you said I'm dead whether or not we lynch and if we lynch scum I'll win without dying

[Accountant]

While we wait on Impo, xkfyu are you going to do a day 3 VCA?

[MURDERCAT]

Day 3 vca is meaningless

[Accountant]

oh right day 3 was the ira lynch lmao

[Xkfyu]

If Accountant is town, he is definitely gonna die tonight, regardless of whether we lynch or not.

Does this imply you don't think we'll lynch scum since you said I'm dead whether or not we lynch and if we lynch scum I'll win without dying

Did I really need to include the implied statement "unless we lynch scum" in that sentence? Seems a bit silly.

[Impoetic]

OK

so xkfyu for me is primarily poe, coupled with a lot of his posts lately being sort of filler-under-the-guise-of-content, which I tend to SR. I had a particular qualm with his post near the end of D1 I’ll get back to later if I remember it when i reread it.

Also, although my initial reaction was one of surprise, it actually makes a lot of sense for scum!XK to SR Murdercat here over me, strategically speaking. A) It could be a form of wifom, since he’s going against the tides, which, I mean, fooled me for a while if it’s the case and B) knowing he’d probably get lynched today or tomorrow if things were allowed to go their natural course based on current standings would obviously leave this as an easily-foreseeable tactic.

Re: VC 1.21: how can you claim you’re a serious counterwagon due to two votes from confirmed townies? If MCAT wanted to create a counterwagon, why would they have even voted that slot before anyone else did? The optimal move would be to latch onto Tam or Ira’s votes, assuming there wasn’t an obvious indicator of intent from robb/Jae beforehand. (I know nothing about VCA so correct me if I’m wrong, all.)

Also, re: VC 2.05:
I realize you’re way more into this vote count analysis thing than I as of yet but I find it hard to believe that’s “really scary” to you when you’re also fairly confident in Accountant being town (or project yourself to be such). It’s a single move by scum that is actually a meta I’ve read about before and you probably have too. This game is now 80 pages long and there’s not even any dialogue outside of the vote count that could flesh out your “scare.”

I’m sorry if this is just confbias speaking, but it seems fake.

And this was related to what I wanted to say yesterday, IIRC, but where does your TR on me actually

come

from? You say that at the end of the post right after the Accountant comment, and you’ve voiced it before a couple times, yet I don’t think you ever gave an explanation or, if you did, it apparently wasn’t very convincing to me — and I’m me!

I do wanna know why MCat was so opposed to the tam lynch though. All I remember is emphatic one-liners like “the tam lynch is hella bad” or something. xD I suck

[Accountant]

I want to lynch Xkfyu. His arguments didn't significantly sway my opinion

[Xkfyu]

Re: VC 1.21: how can you claim you’re a serious counterwagon due to two votes from confirmed townies? If MCAT wanted to create a counterwagon, why would they have even voted that slot before anyone else did? The optimal move would be to latch onto Tam or Ira’s votes, assuming there wasn’t an obvious indicator of intent from robb/Jae beforehand. (I know nothing about VCA so correct me if I’m wrong, all.)

How can you claim that I'm not? One of those confirmed towns (JR) was just sheeping MC at the time, and MC knew that.

Also, re: VC 2.05:
I realize you’re way more into this vote count analysis thing than I as of yet but I find it hard to believe that’s “really scary” to you when you’re also fairly confident in Accountant being town (or project yourself to be such). It’s a single move by scum that is actually a meta I’ve read about before and you probably have too. This game is now 80 pages long and there’s not even any dialogue outside of the vote count that could flesh out your “scare.”

That's the only thing that scared me at all about Accountant. Everything else has pointed to him being town. It's "scary" because I know I would have let my buddy hammer me in that situation, and if Accountant is scum, then there is no way that we win this game.

And this was related to what I wanted to say yesterday, IIRC, but where does your TR on me actually come from?

My town read on you comes from your posts.

[Xkfyu]

I want to lynch Xkfyu. His arguments didn't significantly sway my opinion

I really have no problems with being lynched. I knew full well that that was likely going to happen today, as it's the next logical step coming from a town mindset.

Just remember this in D6

Accountant you are all but confirmed. If we no lynch today you will die, so I think we should just go for it. You are driving this thing now though.

Xk and Impo, please post your best evidence that the other one is scum and go ahead and claim too for good measure. Reasons you can't be scum with Tam/Ira will also be accepted.

FWIW, I'm feeling very confident we are going to win this.

Notice here that MC really doesn't care who is lynched. It's plain to see that, between Impoetic and I, the one with the worst evidence against the other one will be his lynch target today.

So, let's not delay this any longer than need be. Either vote with me, or vote against me.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[Accountant]

Uhhhhhh xkfyu are you aware this is mylo

[Accountant]

So, let's not delay this any longer than need be. Either vote with me, or vote against me.

VOTE: Xkfyu

[Accountant]

Sorry but I don't buy your shit, if MCAT or impo are scum they deserve to win anyways

[Xkfyu]

Uhhhhhh xkfyu are you aware this is mylo

Shit, you're right. We're 4, not 5.

[Xkfyu]

Uhhhhhh xkfyu are you aware this is mylo

That makes my point about MC even stronger though, and perfectly explains why he doesn't care which one of us is lynched.

Plus, he's been buddying you really hard the last 2 day phases.