[SETUP] Cops' Dilemma

[JasonWazza]

Wouldn't the logical strategy for Scum just be to double shot, and hope both cops don't investigate?

that brings it down to an early 3:2.

I mean i guess this only applies in the case a townie is lynched, but it still feels optimal.

And since they have only 3 townies and 2 cops left, they have a decent chance of nailing at least 1 cop regardless.

As for town, they also should probably run based on a similar scenario (and i'd argue lynching the Loner is optimal, because sure the cops can be redirected, but that doesn't mean all that much.)

Lynching loner leaves:

2 Mafia
2 Cops
4 Townies

Double Redirect: Both cops live, claim their Results, (mafia likely counters/claims as well) and go think about the results and try to bust the game open right there (worst case scenario is both get redirected, but is fairly unlikely.)
The one Redirect/one Kill route probably needs you to play smart around it, optimal strategy would probably depend more on who got killed then anything else.
Double Kill: assuming both cops don't get hit, the game is likely broken
1 cop living: Claim cop, don't claim result, if one cop claims, their result is true (Guilty is 100% a mafia lynch, going to a 2v1 lylo, Innocent is 66% a mafia lynch, going to a 2v1 lylo with a confirmed innocent)
2 cops living: Claim cops, don't claim results as before, this varies based on the amount of cops claiming, but your generally in a massive win scenario, Also always make an order for Cops to claim in (unless 2 claim), as this increases the chance of a possible mafia screw up.