Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: DrMyShottyIzSik

Because his shotty iz sik.

[BTD6_maker]

Of course, all dragons are mythical (apart from, for example, Komodo dragons which definitely

do not

breathe fire). There are many different sources but I know that firedrakes breathe fire in Tolkien. Other sources by different authors may or may not differ.

InnocentVillager, if the pressure is required then someone else will probably will vote him. That runs the risk of someone missing the L-1 and inadvertently hammering, thinking that they are putting him at L-1. If anyone does put him at L-1, please make it very obvious.

[BTD6_maker]

Aww Kap you were supposed to keep your vote there and see how he reacts

Sure! VOTE: shotty - I'm too lazy to type the whore thong.

Autocorrect?

Shotty is at L-1!!!!!!!!!!

That obvious enough?

Yes.

[BTD6_maker]

Also, just so you all know, Einstein does not breathe fire.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: drmyshotty

Hammering scum now.

You are now confirmed Mafia Scum. It says so under your name.

[BTD6_maker]

It was obvious for me but you never know who will just skim the posts and miss it.

[BTD6_maker]

I actually want someone to hammer him. It will make the hammerer confscum in day 2

Of course, on a more serious note, scum are unlikely to hammer, precisely because of this. This wagon is probably not going anywhere (although it might start up again outside RVS) so showing intent to hammer and asking for a claim is outright rolefishing. However, the RVS is a formality that games have to go through and we have nothing else for it.

[BTD6_maker]

What's up bitches. This is my first game back after like 2 years, so I'm pretty rusty on my mafia. Got inspired to play again because I miss the bullshitty, argumentative circlejerking and wifom shitting that is this game.

This setup looks fun. I am going to go ahead and claim

ha u scumfuck rolefisher

, cause obviously playing as claimed is easier for town to win.

With that I am going to start this game and:

VOTE: innocentvillager

He just rubs me the wrong way.

VOTE: BTD6

First player to mention rolefishing = scum.

The true first player to mention rolefishing.

[BTD6_maker]

Now that you've said that, if scum do actually bus, they are taking a huge disadvantage now but are much less likely to face a lynch in the future because everyone thinks scum would never hammer. Hammering scum may still give towncred but you should always consider a lynch on them if necessary in the future.

[BTD6_maker]

Nulltown: Kappy, InnocentVillager
Null: Alexcellent, Smv, KickAssAndGiggle, Shotty, Alpaca
Nullscum: Music And Mail

These are incredibly weak.

VOTE: InnocentVillager

All my reads are practically null. You are a miniscule townread but I believe pressure is the key to escaping RVS. The read is too weak to matter much.

[BTD6_maker]

Mainly to escape from RVS.

However, if someone else genuinely scumreads and votes you, their vote is much more dangerous for you and you will be under a lot of extra pressure because you would be at L-1 instead of L-2. If someone then gives intent to hammer, the pressure rises again.

[BTD6_maker]

I mostly agree with Alpaca. Only scum know exactly who is Town or not so only they know whether quicklynching will hit scum. Thus lynching them if they hit Town is probably a good idea. If they hit scum, wait for a while but don't be afraid to lynch if necessary.

The difference is that in this game a lynched player can still participate in scum hunting almost as much as a live player. A hammer doesn't hurt Town as much in this game.

IV, your analysis did make sense somewhat. Scum hammering scum will severely lower scum's chances, provided we do not hesitate to lynch them when necessary.

[BTD6_maker]

Hi Ranger!

I've seen you as scum (granted; I was a different scum) and I will be seeing you as mod but I haven't yet seen you as town.

[BTD6_maker]

It was just an introductory post to Ranger, but I was also saying it in case I meta her.

[BTD6_maker]

Despite being a scum in Open 638 your reads were suspiciously accurate (scumreading both me and Masquerade together). Perhaps there is something more to your scum hunting.

I also scumread Music and Mail but it's a weak scumread. It's certainly better than voting a townread for virtually no pressure.

VOTE: Music and Mail

[BTD6_maker]

Also, scum can technically prime and kill a stump, but there is very little incentive to do so.

[BTD6_maker]

in fact yeah.

if I get lynched today firefighter is on me anyway and we're autolynching Ranger tomorrow.

this is batshit insane.

You can't force the firefighter to be on you. The firefighter will be on whoever they (not you) think has the greatest chance of being primed.

Autolynching has led Town to so many losses. If you're Town, you could be wrong about Ranger. If Ranger is also Town, she was wrong about you but that does not imply that she is scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Quaroath, Shotty also voted for Music and Mail.

[BTD6_maker]

EBWOP: I'm not sure whether Shotty actually intended to vote and couldn't find the right tag.

[BTD6_maker]

Ranger's overconfidence seems to come from a scum perspective. What I mean is that a scum already knows exactly who the scum are and thus may give stronger reads than their Town-self. These reads could be in either direction. A scum might strong scumread a Townie for a chance of an easy mislynch or may strong scumread a partner to avoid detection after the partner flips.

Ranger is my best scumread now. Still only weak-moderate but worth voting on.

VOTE: Ranger

This is now L-1

It puts enough pressure on Ranger now (some others still scumread her such as Alexcellent) so that she can't afford to give bad reasoning now or simply refuse to explain a read. Explaining anything benefits Town. We are in the dark. Scum already know who scum are.

[BTD6_maker]

sorry I got in a car accident last night, hospital post, will be out later today sorry.

Holy shit dude, sorry about that. Get better soon.

Phone posting, but for now I am confused on why Ranger has spent all of her time bickering with M&M, while I am somehow "100% scum". Townie play would be to focus on trying to get me lynched.

@Ranger why aren't you doing more to get me lynched?

Are you trying to suggest that you actively want Ranger to vote you?

[BTD6_maker]

Weak-moderate Town: Alpaca,
Null-weak Town: Alexcellent, Kappy, Shotty
Null-weak scum: KAAG
Weak-moderate scum: Ranger, Music And Mail (even within a slot, Music seems scummier than Mail)
Moderate-strong scum: InnocentVillager

Intent on IV

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: BTD6

I have issues believing that town!you wants to do this again.

Why would that be? I think that IV is our best lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

Also, I am assuming you are referring to giving intent.

I previously thought that Town needs to wait as long as possible but I now see why scum may want that because they want to stall to reduce pressure on their wagon. Now I take a more pragmatic approach, and I am willing to lynch IV at this stage.

[BTD6_maker]

So what do you claim?

Can anyone else figure it out?

[BTD6_maker]

Technically you could make pretty much anything into any claim you wanted.

VOTE: IV

If you are scum (and scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree) then good. If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death.

[BTD6_maker]

Well, at least this was a good lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

Town have a very good chance in this game now.

[BTD6_maker]

I recommend priming the person we talked about in post 3 of QT.

Trying to figure out who this is so firefighter knows who to protect. I don't think scum have daytalk, so it's someone they discussed pre game. which means they won't prime based on performance, just on meta and stuff like that. Who's someone IV has a history with?

If anyone tells firefighter who to protect, their protection will be worthless as scum will just avoid priming them.

Also, perhaps IV just mentioned a name somewhere in post 3 of scumtalk and later (during the day) realised that they were a threat. As far as I know, primed and killed players can't post in the thread as stumps.

[BTD6_maker]

I recommend priming the person we talked about in post 3 of QT.

Trying to figure out who this is so firefighter knows who to protect. I don't think scum have daytalk, so it's someone they discussed pre game. which means they won't prime based on performance, just on meta and stuff like that. Who's someone IV has a history with?

If anyone tells firefighter who to protect, their protection will be worthless as scum will just avoid priming them.

Also, perhaps IV just mentioned a name somewhere in post 3 of scumtalk and later (during the day) realised that they were a threat. As far as I know, primed and killed players can't post in the thread as stumps.

I'm not telling the firefighter who to protect. I'm giving them a clue so they can decide who to protect on their own.

OK. Now I understand.

I originally thought you were going to actually say who the target was most likely to be.

[BTD6_maker]

I recommend priming the person we talked about in post 3 of QT.

Trying to figure out who this is so firefighter knows who to protect. I don't think scum have daytalk, so it's someone they discussed pre game. which means they won't prime based on performance, just on meta and stuff like that. Who's someone IV has a history with?

If anyone tells firefighter who to protect, their protection will be worthless as scum will just avoid priming them.

Also, perhaps IV just mentioned a name somewhere in post 3 of scumtalk and later (during the day) realised that they were a threat. As far as I know, primed and killed players can't post in the thread as stumps.

I'm not telling the firefighter who to protect. I'm giving them a clue so they can decide who to protect on their own.

OK. Now I understand.

I originally thought you were going to actually say who the target was most likely to be.

No. The "Who's someone IV has a history with?" was a rhetorical question, meant for the firefighter to answer in his head.

I figured that out after your post.

By the way, another quote pyramid is building up.

[BTD6_maker]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

[BTD6_maker]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

Ranger also agreed to be lynched if IV was town. Makes you wonder how she knew he was scum, since she supposedly wasn't actually 100% sure.

Are we visiting your home country for the third time today?

[BTD6_maker]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

Ranger also agreed to be lynched if IV was town. Makes you wonder how she knew he was scum, since she supposedly wasn't actually 100% sure.

Are we visiting your home country for the third time today?

what?

I noticed your Location.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Music and Mail

I now weakly scumread Ranger. I thought that Ranger was much more likely scum if IV flips scum but IV has flipped Town. Music and Mail is now my strongest scumread.

Ranger, when you promised to get lynched was that some sort of gambit? What was your purpose?

IV, why did you claim scum? From what I can see it was to have a chance at catching out the scum that know you are Town.

[BTD6_maker]

Music is definitely scummier than Mail. Music/RC is extremely uncooperative, characteristic of his scum game in Newbie 1700. He refuses to help Town or even interact with those scumreading him, just as in Newbie 1700.

[BTD6_maker]

I primarily want a Music and Mail lynch but I am fine with lynching Ranger. With this setup a lynch on scum Ranger is no doubt good but a lynch on town Ranger is not too bad. Ranger will most probably survive the rest of the game (unless she was primed N1) and can input her reads.

Besides, she promised.

[BTD6_maker]

I'm kinda scumreading Ranger and BTD but I don't think they're likely to be scum together ugh.

-- Mail

Can you please explain your read on me?

[BTD6_maker]

Just so you know, if I only read Mail's posts, my read would probably be weak scum (weaker than Ranger). It's mostly Music that makes me strongly scumread this slot. The above post is a case in point. Firstly, you are forbidden from voting and secondly, not giving real content will not help, especially after you are confirmed Town.

[BTD6_maker]

Yeah, so if this game continues with this much content scum are going to autowin.

Someone unvote Shotty and let's get some discussion going, hmm?

@Everyone

if you had to pick one person as scum from the last two pages who would it be?

This is how I feel reading up to this point almost nothing has happened :/

If anyone wants some incentive to hammer myshotty, if he flips town we'll still give you a chance to flail a bit D2 before we lynch you

If he flips scum, we'll autoconfirm you as town and if you're maf that's great incentive to bus

This makes no sense! If he flips scum, you're conftown? No, why would town know he was scum? It would be a coin flip, and no townie wants to take that chance. If he flips scum, the hammerer would be scum.
VOTE: innocentvillager until I understand this logic.

I don't like the

until I understand this logic.

part it reduces the pressure on his own vote which is incredibly bad and unsafe play.

I think Kappy was trying to say that he found the logic to not make sense and scumread IV for it, not trying to reduce the pressure on his vote.

Now that you've said that, if scum do actually bus, they are taking a huge disadvantage now but are much less likely to face a lynch in the future because everyone thinks scum would never hammer. Hammering scum may still give towncred but you should always consider a lynch on them if necessary in the future.

Explaining what someone already said. Information over scum hunting.

I was not just repeating an explanation of what someone already explained. I was showing how the act of mentioning that scum will not hammer defeats its own purpose, therefore stopping Town from clearing hammerers ( which would be a big mistake). I do give a lot of information and I also scumhunt. There is nothing wrong with that. It's only when a person doesn't scumhunt that it becomes a tell, and a weak one at that.

Nulltown: Kappy, InnocentVillager
Null: Alexcellent, Smv, KickAssAndGiggle, Shotty, Alpaca
Nullscum: Music And Mail

These are incredibly weak.

VOTE: InnocentVillager

All my reads are practically null. You are a miniscule townread but I believe pressure is the key to escaping RVS. The read is too weak to matter much.

Why are so many scum aligned players trying to apply pressure without actually applying any pressure?

I am not a scum aligned player, though you probably don't know it yet. This was very early on, just barely out of RVS, where adding pressure to a wagon for its own sake would generate some content that could then be analysed, leading us fully out of RVS.

Looking for an smv replacement per his request.

Guess who? >:D

This post apparently made a bunch of people really happy.

All of 71 feels pretty forced but I don't have a good grasp of shotty's town meta so idk if he's usually the kind of person to see scummy things in stuff that isn't really alignment indicative.

Also fuck yeah Ranger!

-- Mail

Why is no one applying any real pressure with there accusations

[BTD6_maker]

I would No Kill given the chance (I townread both Kappy and Sickofit). If I had to, I would shoot Sickofit. He is very inactive (as was his predecessor) and he is a weaker townread. There's just barely any content from the slot.

[BTD6_maker]

I think the Fire Fighters should claim today by the way.

Bad idea. If the Firefighter claims, scum will prime them and kill them. A Firefighter (as far as I know) cannot protect themselves. This is definitely rolefishing.

Quaroath, can a Firefighter self-protect?

[BTD6_maker]

Weak-moderate Town: Alpaca, Shotty
Null-weak Town: Kappy, Sickofit
Weak-moderate scum: Touka, Ranger
Moderate-strong scum: M&M

[BTD6_maker]

I honestly don't know what I am supposed to do with these posts honestly I have incredibly mixed feelings about it :/

that quote was pretty scummy honestly

This is a really interesting argument honestly.

You can't honestly think that is a good idea >.>

Yeah that was all boring honestly.

I honestly don't honestly know how you're honestly deciding to honestly not vote Touka here honestly.

-- Mail

Honestly? I honestly don't understand why you honestly think "honestly" is honestly a scum move. Honestly, it's fun though. VOTE: Mail, not Music

And I'm voting Music, not Mail.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Ranger

Right now a Ranger lynch looks more viable than a M&M lynch. I don't scumread Ranger as strongly but I do think that a Ranger lynch is beneficial to Town. If Ranger is Town, she can still give all her reads tomorrow and help Town. If she is scum, then perfect.

[BTD6_maker]

Her reads are not 100% accurate, but they do help. You are misrepresenting me.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: shotty
yay everyone self vote for /in-stant town cred... come on ranger you're better than that!

Ranger promised to get lynched if IV was Town. You didn't so there is no need for you to self-vote.

[BTD6_maker]

At least I post more than does.

More than

who

does? Apart from Sickofit (who is still being replaced) you are by far the most inactive person. Unless this is just a joke about the person with a blank username.

[BTD6_maker]

Literally no one else? It seems everyone but Alpaca and Sick are producing some content. More would be good, though.

[BTD6_maker]

I can understand your point now. Six hours have passed and nothing at all has happened. I'm not a fan of hyper-active games where it's a struggle to keep up but this is the other extreme.

[BTD6_maker]

I hold RC to a different standard: perpetual scumreads, always anti-Town, and never of any help whatsoever. See Newbies 1700 and 1708 for why.

[BTD6_maker]

You're currently a scumread, about the same as Ranger. However, a Ranger/Mhsmith team is rather unlikely.

[BTD6_maker]

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

[BTD6_maker]

How am I in any way a lurker? The only real lurker in this entire game has been Alpaca.

[BTD6_maker]

Technically you could make pretty much anything into any claim you wanted.

VOTE: IV

If you are scum (and scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree) then good. If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death.

Hey BTD, why did you think that "scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree"? Often mafia tries to PR claim to draw out PR roles or buy survival for a day if no one counters; why did you presume the opposite as stated justification for your hammer of IV?

Also, how confident were you that IV was an arsonist when you hammered? It's weird to re-read this vote and see you seemingly disclaiming responsibility for it (especially since it was the hammer) as you're making it. Was this truly a "screw it, if you're a tree no big loss" vote? Did you actually have a strong read on him at the time?

Given the obscurity of his breadcrumb, I thought it wasn't too surprising for a scum IV to also hide an extremely subtle FF breadcrumb. Also, if we do not lynch someone we think COULD be Town (outside investigative PRs claiming) then we cannot lynch at all. I had a moderate/strong scumread at the time (roughly 70% sure), and I thought that in this game, while lynching the most likely scum is good, a mislynch also does not hurt Town as much as in other games.

[BTD6_maker]

You die if you get lynched.

In a normal game, yes.
But this mechanic is basically a nerfed version of the shortnight/longnight mechanic.
In that I don't actually die.
I can still contribute.

And from my wagon, scumhunt.

If you're town, eating a lynch just because you're not feeling confident in your reads or so the town can "move on" or whatever is TERRIBLE play.

Why?

Again.

In a normal game, sure, that goes without saying.

But in this game. When you live on after being lynched. Why is it terrible play to get lynched? Just because it's not a lynch on scum? Sure, that makes it not the ideal play. Ideal play is always lynching scum. But the mechanic exists for good reason. Getting lynched is a viable play. Not optimal, but viable.

NO. You're missing the point in a drastic and fundamental manner. The lynch is what matters. Anything and everything that weakens the lynch and its meaning is

FUNDAMENTALLY ANTI-TOWN

.

Imagine a game in which everyone's votes are targeted towards finding and killing mafia. No secondary objectives, JUST THAT. i.e. a normal game of mafia.

Now look at this game. Here, you get garbage like BTD6's hammer vote where he basically says "eh, screw it, even if this is a mislynch, no big loss". How can you possibly figure out who is being sincere in their scum-hunting and who is just bullshitting when "even if we mislynch it's OK" becomes an acceptable vote rationale? The obvious answer is, you simply cannot.

An atmosphere of indifference towards the consequences of mislynching is completely terrible (and it's probably not a coincidence that the game state turned lurky and indifferent given the underlying "eh, if we mislynch it's ok" attitude). And, again, YOU started it. Others took that ball and ran with it. But YOU started it. It's anti-town, and it's manipulative. And you started that process. Is it possible you simply made a mistake? That you didn't bother to think through the consequences of the things you said? Sure. But it's far likelier that this was an intentional play to lull the board into a false sense of security and laziness.

If you do not assume "even if we mislynch it's OK" we will never (apart from investigative PRs) get a lynch. Why does anyone ask for claims before hammering? It's to reduce the damage a mislynch does. In this game, a FF would not claim Tree so the damage was lowered still due to the lynch mechanics for Trees. I was willing to take that risk to lynch my strongest scumread.

that's basically OMGUS logic, dressed up a bit.

A scum player would say this, yes.
But a town player should be able to recognize that there's a difference between calling a player a scum for voting them (omgus) and calling a player scum for the way they voted. I did the latter. You're not scum because you're voting me. It could be any player you voted and I'd say the same thing. You're scum because you're not playing to anything even remotely resembling your towngame.

Except what you said was "You're writing a narrative that when examined falls apart"... and to back it up you focus on the argument that I've implied you didn't explain your read. But what I actually said was that your "100% sure" bit was a lie. And it was a lie, at the very least by the time the hammer came down. Was all of your push based on that? No. But that was a key part, and likely a key part of why people followed you. And you allowed that to happen, even though, according to your own recounting of events, you knew that the "100% sure" bit was no longer true. Why should I believe you? Why should your admitted choice to allow for a lynch to happen under false pretenses (especially with deadline being days away) NOT be considered a strong wolf tell?

I know that what Ranger did is a mistake. If you change your initial answer on a multiple choice test, your new answer is more likely to be correct than your initial answer, despite what many think. Same applies to Mafia. Ranger should have showed a steady read progression with IV slowly dropping from strong scum to medium scum to weak scum, but instead chose to lie. One point in Ranger 's defence is that a scum Ranger is likely to keep up appearances of a strong scumread, but of course it is possible that Ranger said that her confidence was reduced because of knowing IV would flip Town and gain Towncred by doing so.

Sure. And right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy.

No, I mean the mhsmith that is town I know will post all angles, IN THREAD, on all players. All of them. And with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true.
This blind push of near-absolute certainty from you? Absolutely not characteristic of your towngame.

wrt meta, I think you're describing my late-game LYLO/MYLO town game more than my town game as a whole. I certainly look for whatever angles I can find and think about, yes (and I believe I have been doing this). But the idea of "with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true"... that's typically not my town game.
I'm also not sure why you are calling my push on you a "blind push of near-absolute certainty". I explicitly stated "I'd be fairly surprised if she were to flip town. Call it like 60% wolf odds. And I really don't see a better case right now." One of us has represented a read of "near-absolute certainty" to the board. And it's not me. Seems like a mis-rep in my book. Heck, even your quoted bit makes that point, "right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy". How can you possibly interpret that language as being a "blind push of near-absolute certainty"?

wrt IV, the ESSENTIAL problem is that you yourself stated that you had a stronger read on M&M. So why not try and build the wagon there?

You keep on pushing this point, yet this continues to ignore what I already said. innocentvillager was a stronger scumread originally. Ergo, I pushed innocentvillager. When this stopped being true, I knew I was second-guessing myself, and through a combination of pride and stubbornness, refused to back down off of that paranoia.

And I continue to find that explanation non-credible. You represented to the board that you were "100%" certain on IV. That certainty helped drive IV's lynch. Now you represent that you weren't so certain after all, that you'd found his posts better, and that you were wavering. And yet, despite that wavering, you didn't unvote, you didn't open the floor to more conversation, you just held your vote. Pride? Stubborness? Maybe. But "comfortable with a nice and easy mislynch" works pretty well too, especially since three of the five final votes on IV (Alex, BTD, Kappy) had all voted you not too much prior.

"I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more"

I misspoke; that sentence is incomplete. It was meant to say that I hate scumreading a player

correctly

and then backing down from it. This is obvious enough. When you're right about a read, but then through paranoia, doubt it enough to reverse it, how do YOU feel? Universally, the answer is "very bad". That's what I was referring to. As much as I hate being wrong, being

right

and then reversing my read to be wrong is much, much worse.

Sure. The very first game I played (on PlayDip), I had what basically amounted to a (accurate)tonal read on Harb (a very good player, especially as wolf), and basically let him talk me out of it. I felt like a total fool afterwards.
OTOH, good town play is to be uncertain, to be paranoid, to be questioning. If your read was seriously wavering, there's nothing wrong with unvoting, saying you need more time to think, taking the time to ask questions and refine your read, etc. But if you're mafia and just want to get that mislynch out of the way, then pushing that lynch and then only afterwards "confessing" to your very human doubt and questioning... that's seems like a pretty effective strategy, especially if you're trying to justify your part in the mislynch after it's too late to do anything about it.

And now that you're in a position where you're in actual danger of that "offer" getting cashed anyway, you're pushing elsewhere.

I don't see myself escaping the lynch. I do, however, intend to push you.
And if Music and Mail calls me terrible to be ignored after I flip, they're confirmed scum for it, especially since it's not them that I'm pushing. It's you.
I don't care if I live or die. I expect to die. I'd definitely die if a townread was in any danger of being lynched. But given the choice between contributing to my own lynch, or making a statement about my strong scumread...I'm going to go for the latter.

Cool. I expect you to die too. I still think you're the likeliest player here to be mafia. And I'm still pretty happy with my vote being right where it is.

Want to guess at what I hated about 134?

Nope! I'm looking forward to whatever reason you pose for hating it, and if you intend to lynch me, you WILL post it before I get lynched, because you're going to be held accountable for it and if you don't I swear to god I'll spam the thread until you are lynched.

Hey now, accountable is one of MY favorite words, you can't steal it!
I'll admit to being disapointed that no one seemed interested in figuring out for themselves what was wrong about 134, but so be it. Essentially, what's wrong with it is that it's a weak case that's heavily over-justified. Your case in 134, essentially:
1) M&M stated intent without hammering. That's wolfy for meta reasons.
2) 26 had a fake tone (not sure why that's fake other than a "RVS BS" sort of way though)
3) Empty posting wrt asking for an unvote (this point is actually a bit of something)
4) 72 was a waffle and possible awkward greeting
5) Meta read on RC's feelings in 97, 103
6) Meta read / paranoia on the L-1 unvote
Basically it's nearly 1,000 words that boils down to "I have a meta read on RC/Postie, and there's some mildly suspicious behavior I've noticed". This is over-justified as hell compared to the minor amount of actual evidence at hand.
Bonus points for the needless VT claim btw. That one's more icing on the cake though.

PS Alpaca's your #2 team read on gut alone?

Tied for number one (tiers are equal), but otherwise, correct.

I mean, you get why I'm not buying this, right?

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

This is all true.

It is? http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
KAAG made three votes. The first was RVS, the second was probably RVS (with maybe a LITTLE bit of substance to it), and the third was either RVS (inappropriately IMO, but his ISO basically proclaims pretty clearly "we're all still in RVS") or a transparent "sure let's see what happens" wagon hop. Which of these votes was "pretty bad"? Your +1 onto Touka suggests that you see multiple garbage votes there? So... two of the three? All three?
As for M&M, I have a town read on the slot. That seems like a decent reason to defend them.

You must be insanely confident in a smith/M&M mafia team then, since you're also in his top three.

I have no right to use the term insanely confident to describe my reads given D1.
Still, for lack of a better term: insanely confident on you, yes. Confident on M&M, no. They're a scumread, but it's mostly because "I don't have any better ideas and I'm reviewing my past read and thinking it might hold merit". Still, that Touka sees the two players on the bottom of my reads as scum, when I see them as scum, is a promising sign especially knowing it's beeboy behind the wheel.

Still "insanely confident"? Any wavering? It's no longer credible for you to claim that one AFTER a hammer comes down. Not that your stunt should have gotten you town credit the first time though.
...

And here's ranger taking that crappy read and considering a sheep of it.

No, that was because Touka was revealed to be beeboy.
I hold beeboy to basically the same standard I hold RadiantCowbells: the absolute top tier of scumhunters, the players I easily synch with when we share alignments, the players who I see as competent, and while never perfect, strong players with strong pushes.
And the beeboy of this game, as Touka, was playing in a really strange manner. Touka's play, as a person, looked town. Touka's play, knowing it was beeboy, looked strange.

Yeah, but that's not what you actually said, though, now is it?

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

Quite possibly.

which was a response to

Oh I thought there was 2 firefighters.
Ignore me.

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

You literally said that Touka might have "claimed scum". It's right there. It's explicit. This isn't "beeboy was playing off", this was "hey, drmy might have picked up on a slip". Even though that "slip" was nonsense.

Or, of course, Shotty was just joking there, which seems likely and consistent with his game so far.

[BTD6_maker]

1) mislynches do happen. But "even if you're mislynched it's ok" is terrible voting logic, much less hammering logic. Take responsibility for your votes and your reads. Don't ever vote while hedging it away as "well even if I screw this up no big deal". It's Wolfy to try and deflect responsibility for your actions. Were you not a newbie, it'd be pretty close to a scum claim. As it is, it's votable stuff.

2) voting someone, or allowing others to vote someone, based on false pretenses, cannot reasonably be acceptable. It's a scum tell. Votes, and the reasons behind them, are FUNDAMENTALLY your biggest alignment tells. If you make it ok for votes to be dishonest, you'll basically never catch Mafia. Fundamentally, Mafia are insincere and dishonest in their voting, as well as their reads, and their engagement with the game as a whole. This insincerity and dishonesty is how you catch them.

3) Shotty may well have been joking. But ranger appeared to take the joke seriously. Thats the point I'm making. Making a bad point is bad. Sheeping a bad point is worse. Screwup? It's possible. But at some point, "ranger is Mafia" simply becomes more likely than "wow ranger is playing a really strange and suspicious town game". If I got more from you and alpaca, and could develop a better read on you both, that'd be helpful to either confirm or cast into doubt my read. But as it is, ranger is my best read.

Ps note that I am NOT justifying this with "if ranger is town, no biggie, she can help us anyway". I think she's Mafia, therefore I'm voting for her. Worrying about stumping status should be a far secondary concern to any right thinking townie, compared to finding and lynching Mafia.

That was not my entire justification. I hammered because I was confident that IV was scum. The fact that a mislynch wouldn't be too damaging was a small helpful bonus but I didn't lynch because of that. I have to at least acknowledge the possibility of a mislynch as any lynch can be a mislynch.

[BTD6_maker]

In my opinion you and Ranger are likely Town vs scum. A scum theatre would seem like too much WIFOM and speculation at the moment. It is still a possibility though. I scumread you both so I think Town vs Town is more unlikely, though it is possible if M&M flips scum. If not, chances are at least one of you is scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

I agree. RC just says "you're scum" or something along those lines, never with justification, and commonly wron, which has led to my "perpetual scumread" on him. Every time I see RC, I know he's going to be as stubborn as always and detrimental to Town.

[BTD6_maker]

Will M&M still be a hydra, or will it be one single person?

[BTD6_maker]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

I agree. RC just says "you're scum" or something along those lines, never with justification, and commonly wron, which has led to my "perpetual scumread" on him. Every time I see RC, I know he's going to be as stubborn as always and detrimental to Town.

Are you saying that your m&m read early in the game was just a play style read? Nothing particular to this game, just an "rc is playing, he must be Mafia" sort of thing?

More like just an "RC is playing, he must be anti-Town". This is irrespective of whether he is Town or scum. I try to make this weak but every game with RC just confirms it.

[BTD6_maker]

Spoiler: current vca

Day One

M&M wagon high point
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
mhsmith0 - (1)

innocentvillager

Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (1) Music and Mail
Not Voting - (2) Kappy, Touka

Ranger wagon reaches parity
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (3) Music and Mail,

innocentvillager

, Kappy
Not Voting - (1) Touka

Ranger wagon BRIEFLY hits L-1
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (4) Music and Mail,

innocentvillager

, Kappy, Touka
Not Voting - (0)

M&M unvotes, revotes
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (1) drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Ranger - (4)

innocentvillager

, Kappy, Touka, Music and Mail
Not Voting - (0)

Alex on IV, BTD6 on Ranger, IV on drmy
BTD6_maker – (1) AlpacaAlpaca

innocentvillager

– (3) drmyshottyizsik, Ranger, Touka
Music and Mail - (1) mhsmith0
Ranger - (3) Kappy, Music and Mail, BTD6_maker
drmyshottyizsik - (1)

innocentvillager

Lynch
BTD6_maker – (2) AlpacaAlpaca, Music and Mail

innocentvillager

– (5) drmyshottyizsik, Ranger, Touka, Kappy, BTD6_maker
Music and Mail - (1) mhsmith0
drmyshottyizsik - (1)

innocentvillager

Day Two
M&M wagon high point
Touka - (1) Music and Mail
Music and Mail - (3) drmyshottyizsik, BTD6_maker, Touka
Not Voting - (4) AlpacaAlpaca, Kappy, mhsmith0, Ranger

Ranger wagon high point (L-1)
drmyshottyizsik - (2) Music and Mail, drmyshottyizsik
Music and Mail - (1) Touka,
Ranger - (4) Kappy, Ranger, BTD6_maker, mhsmith0
Not Voting - (1) AlpacaAlpaca

mhs counter-wagon high point (L-1)
Ranger - (2) Kappy, mhsmith0
AlpacaAlpaca - (1) Music and Mail
mhsmith0 - (4) Ranger, Touka, drmyshottyizsik, BTD6_maker
Not Voting - (1) AlpacaAlpaca

current state
Ranger - (2) Kappy, drmyshottyizsik
AlpacaAlpaca - (1) Music and Mail
mhsmith0 - (3) Ranger, Touka, BTD6_maker
Not Voting - (2) AlpacaAlpaca, mhsmith0

Especially important votes:
Day One
126 - Alex puts Ranger at L-1
127 - M&M moves Ranger off L-1
135 - M&M puts Ranger back to L-1
137 - Alex moves Ranger off L-1
152 - BTD6 puts Ranger back at L-1
186 - Kappy puts IV at L-1
211 - BTD6 hammers IV
Day Two
473 - I put Ranger at L-1
482 - Ranger takes herself off L-1
570 - BTD6 puts me at L-1
586 - drmy takes me off L-1

Notes/thoughts:
BTD6 has been bandwagoning like CRAZY so far this game. They've made a LOT of really important votes, basically none of which were justified in any meaningful sense. Two L-1 votes, AND one hammer vote, and he has NEVER taken the time to own those votes or the reasoning behind them. That's pretty terrible. Consider:

L-1 on Ranger: puts in some reasoning (more than any other vote fwiw), hedges like crazy with "Still only weak-moderate but worth voting on" and "It puts enough pressure on Ranger now"

Hammer on IV: the expressed reason is that he thought it was an IV/Ranger team (in previous posts), and that the VT claim was meaningfully scum-indicative (which is transparent nonsense). Also hedges like crazy with "If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death."

The VT claim was intended to rule out the possibility that I am lynching a Firefighter. The comment was just an add-on. Also, I was mentioning that if he is a Tree, Town doesn't lose much. That was not in any way my entire justification. My justification was because he was my strongest scumread.

L-1 on me: Hedges with "Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage." Once again, they're casting a super important vote, but the substance behind it is just wishy-washy crap.

Yet again, you are someone I am scumreading. I am willing to lynch any of my scumreads.

Also, looking through his ISO, he basically never has a meaningful opinion, he basically never is asking questions of people (much less interesting ones), and there's no evidence anywhere that he wants to solve the puzzle of the game. He has about 60 posts, and I can't find 10 that are meaningfully game-solving. That's pretty much active lurking right there.

Aren't reads a meaningful opinion? I gave my opinion on IV, Ranger, M&M, and now you. How is this not meaningful?

Also, I still have no idea how anyone town-aligned could possible look at the lengthy back and forth between me and Ranger and have no opinion beyond "it's probably v/w, no real idea which one, let's just lynch them both". There are substantive accusations (going both directions), that practically beg for an actual opinion on them, and essentially just shrugging at and saying "eh whatever lets just lynch them both in whatever order" is, to me, not a credible reaction.

I am trying to build a case on you. Expect it some time today.

Overall: VCA given the lack of flips other than IV seems to point to BTD6 as the most suspicious pattern. OTOH, I still really don't like what I've seen from Ranger so far. I think my lynch pool is {BTD6, Ranger} but want to see what the subs have to say at this point.

[BTD6_maker]

"If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death."

Thinking about it, this really bothers me. If we lynch a Tree, we're not lynching an Arsonist. Just because they can still talk doesn't justifying lynching trees. Each tree we lunch brings us one step closer to a scum win. I don't know how I missed this Day 1.
VOTE: BTD6

How many times have I made it clear that I was lynching the person most likely to be an Arsonist? A lynch on an Arsonist is great, a lynch on a Tree is slightly bad, and a lynch on a Firefighter is really bad. I am not advocating lynching people who are 100% guaranteed to be Trees. I am advocating lynching the person most likely to be an Arsonist, while acknowledging that they could still be a Tree.

Again, why do we ask for claims before hammering? It's because lynching a PR is worse than lynching a VT. We try to minimise damage done by a mislynch. However, the primary objective is to minimise the probability of a mislynch by lynching the most likely scum. I did both.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: btd ^6^ scum post

p-edit
Kappy
s point may be weak but look at BTD's reaction

How is my reaction scummy? I'm honestly tired of repeating myself over and over again.

Mhsmith, I did think an IV/Ranger team was likely, and I found both of them scummy by themselves. The Tree claim was just a weak comment but I would not have hammered a claimed Firefighter. Also, in my experience, scum have never claimed a PR. You are assuming that small comments I make are the whole reason for the hammer, which is false. I don't see why you think pointing out the flaws in your reasoning is scummy.

Also, I never said I wanted to lynch a Tree or that a Tree lynch is good. Once again, you are using irrelevant comments as my whole case, which is misrepresenting me. That comment was not hedging.

I will also post a "case" on IV showing why I scumread him at the time.

[BTD6_maker]

There's no chance involved in 100%, but otherwise, yes.

You cannot have a 100% scumread on someone. That is physically not possible, even if they are scum. I don't even know how to deal with you anymore.

Like you have literally lost all credibility the moment you say that. I'm not even just saying this because I know I'm town, if you said that about anyone in this game it shows that your head's too far up your ass in confbias land to make sense of anything.

You try to say that Ranger cannot have such strong scum reads at this point. I agree with you but what I saw was you trying to do the same thing to Ranger. I thought this could be scum bussing and it could be you forcing a mislynch, but either way it seemed scum motivated and was part of my scumread.

If you're 100% scum, would you agree to get lynched tomorrow when you're wrong about me?

Of course you would. After all, there is no chance involved in 100% scum, right?

Please lynch Ranger immediately on D2 if I happen to get lynched kthxbai

Again, either bussing or lining up a mislynch. I know RC did this with Huntress in my Newbie 1700 game and I picked up on it, so again I was inclined to scumread you.

I also didn't like the fast wagon on Ranger, all of the reason which were basically the same thing.

I thought about it some more, and I really just cannot see ANY scum motivation for making a 100% scumread on me, trying to switch the wagon over to me from M&M, and agreeing to get lynched after I flip. I can only conclude that Ranger is egotistical town.

I would bet that one scum is in Alpaca, shotty, and KAAG (the three who are doing nothing), and that one scum was on the bandwagon of Ranger. More analysis on this when I have time.

I thought there was something between you two. How would Ranger go from top scum to top Town? I thought you are likely bussing (and backing down when the pressure is too intense) or not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch.

In short, a lot of my scumread (not all, but a large amount) was due to your interactions with Ranger. It could have been a Ranger/IV team but it would have equally well made sense with Ranger Town and you scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Post 166.

It wasn't the exact same thing, but it was similar. RC/Huntress in that game was similar to IV/Ranger in this game.

[BTD6_maker]

Post 166 from that game:

Voting me isn't going to make me any less reluctant to explain my reads.

Why are you so reluctant anyway? Surely explaining reads and giving information is pro-Town.

It's clear that this discussion on whether or not Thatguy is cop doesn't seem like it's going anywhere. The last page was pretty much solely about my cop read. Focusing on that to the point of almost ignoring all else definitely can't benefit Town.

Otherwise, I have two moderate scum reads: RC and Huntress.

Question: do you think that I speedvoted my partner off the bat?
Do you think that if I was intending to bus Huntress as you seem to be implying that we wouldn't have come into the day with a plan to get her lynched efficiently with me leading?

If that's not the case, you should vote Huntress who might actually be scum.
And hell, if you think we're bussing? help me bus.

In that game:
RC was actively attacking Huntress in that game, and was basically arguing "whether you think I'm bussing or just town attacking Huntress, either way you should vote Huntress"

In this game:
IV was attacking Ranger's specific assertion of a "100% scumread", specifically with the idea that if Ranger was THAT sure of IV being mafia, then surely she'd be willing to get the rope herself if she was wrong.

How in the world do you think those two posts/situations are comparable? This makes me think that you're just flat-out making stuff up now.

They are not the same. I said I found them similar. In both cases the two most likely possibilities in my opinion were bussing and pushing the mislynch wagon. This is what I saw.

Also...

You try to say that Ranger cannot have such strong scum reads at this point. I agree with you but what I saw was you trying to do the same thing to Ranger. I thought this could be scum bussing and it could be you forcing a mislynch, but either way it seemed scum motivated and was part of my scumread.

This is a non-sensical read of IV's post. He didn't say it was wrong for Ranger to have a strong scum read, he said it was wrong for Ranger to have a "100%" read. Twisting that into it being wrong to have a strong scum read at all is ridiculous. I have a seriously difficult time believing that you actually believed that from reading IV's post.

By "strong" I meant this strong (approaching 100%). I didn't mean ordinary strong reads.

Also...

I thought there was something between you two. How would Ranger go from top scum to top Town? I thought you are likely bussing (and backing down when the pressure is too intense) or not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch.

IV never actually said Ranger was "top town". What he ACTUALLY said was

Back to Ranger, I am starting to think that maybe she is just egotistical town

edit on 684: IV actually did say "I can only conclude that Ranger is egotistical town." (on the post after I looked at) Doesn't make her IV's top town read (necessarily), but even if it did, the rest of the point still applies. That's a credible and plausible read of the situation.

But even if he had said what you thought he said (and again, it was super obvious that he didn't), he presented a thought process and reasoning that was CLEARLY plausible for thinking that Ranger, if mafia, wouldn't have wanted to so blatantly and prominently drive a mislynch.

"and I really just cannot see ANY scum motivation"

This is what I meant by Ranger becoming top Town. A scum can easily prominently drive a mislynch by your logic and will be townread for it. It is somewhat plausible as a Town tell but going from top scum to strong Town is a bit extreme. It's not nearly a 99% Towntell or anything like that.

[BTD6_maker]

...

In that game:
RC was actively attacking Huntress in that game, and was basically arguing "whether you think I'm bussing or just town attacking Huntress, either way you should vote Huntress"

In this game:
IV was attacking Ranger's specific assertion of a "100% scumread", specifically with the idea that if Ranger was THAT sure of IV being mafia, then surely she'd be willing to get the rope herself if she was wrong.

How in the world do you think those two posts/situations are comparable? This makes me think that you're just flat-out making stuff up now.

They are not the same. I said I found them similar. In both cases the two most likely possibilities in my opinion were bussing and pushing the mislynch wagon. This is what I saw.

How are they even similar? A is pushing on B, you think A is mafia, therefore it's bussing or pushing a mislynch wagon? Like, that's the entire similarity, right? Because if that's it, that's an incredibly over-simplistic view of it. The basic nature of the push was extremely different in both cases (see above). This is simply terrible reasoning, and I really struggle to see how you could actually think this.

If there is more to the comparison than "A is pushing on B, you think A is mafia", then you need to actually spell it out, because right now it just looks like you made the whole thing up.

There is more to the comparison. Both pushes seem to try to force a lynch in a way that is like "Why aren't you voting Ranger/Huntress?" It's not an exact comparison, I acknowledge that, but from the comparisons IV seemed scummy as it would seem that scum are more likely to try to force a lynch of someone else when people are oOn their wagon.

Also...

You try to say that Ranger cannot have such strong scum reads at this point. I agree with you but what I saw was you trying to do the same thing to Ranger. I thought this could be scum bussing and it could be you forcing a mislynch, but either way it seemed scum motivated and was part of my scumread.

This is a non-sensical read of IV's post. He didn't say it was wrong for Ranger to have a strong scum read, he said it was wrong for Ranger to have a "100%" read. Twisting that into it being wrong to have a strong scum read at all is ridiculous. I have a seriously difficult time believing that you actually believed that from reading IV's post.

By "strong" I meant this strong (approaching 100%). I didn't mean ordinary strong reads.

Citations needed. I do not see where IV EVER said or implied that Ranger was "approaching 100%" or the like. Top read and LOCK WOLF are nowhere near the same thing. IV even explicitly calls out (what he saw as) the ridiculousness of a near 100% read in 138 (and subsequent posts).

How in the world can you reasonably interpret that as IV himself being near 100% on Ranger? When he so very clearly is strongly against the idea of "100%" reads?

The closest would MAYBE be in 142, where IV basically demands a Ranger lynch if IV gets lynched D1. But that can't possibly be "setting up mislynches" since if IV was himself flipped mafia, then clearly it wouldn't work.

This logic doesn't hold together.

I was talking about Ranger's read. What I saw was IV saying "Ranger has literally lost all credibility" I took that to mean IV thought Ranger was an extremely strong scumread.

Also...

I thought there was something between you two. How would Ranger go from top scum to top Town? I thought you are likely bussing (and backing down when the pressure is too intense) or not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch.

IV never actually said Ranger was "top town". What he ACTUALLY said was

Back to Ranger, I am starting to think that maybe she is just egotistical town

edit on 684: IV actually did say "I can only conclude that Ranger is egotistical town." (on the post after I looked at) Doesn't make her IV's top town read (necessarily), but even if it did, the rest of the point still applies. That's a credible and plausible read of the situation.
But even if he had said what you thought he said (and again, it was super obvious that he didn't), he presented a thought process and reasoning that was CLEARLY plausible for thinking that Ranger, if mafia, wouldn't have wanted to so blatantly and prominently drive a mislynch.

"and I really just cannot see ANY scum motivation"
This is what I meant by Ranger becoming top Town. A scum can easily prominently drive a mislynch by your logic and will be townread for it. It is somewhat plausible as a Town tell but going from top scum to strong Town is a bit extreme. It's not nearly a 99% Towntell or anything like that.

So your argument here is that IV's action was basically null then? "It could be town-indicative but then again maybe not"? And the IV/Ranger interaction was the ONLY non-ridiculous reason you came up with for the hammer, right? So your hammer reasons were:

Not IV's action. His supposed Towntell Ranger did of driving a mislynch wagon. There is virtually no tell strong enough to make someone instantly go from top scum to top town, especially when scum could fake it.

- IV/Ranger interactions (which by what you just stated was at most slightly wolf-indicative for IV)
- transparently false and ridiculous theory about the tree claim being meaningfully wolf-indicative

NOT MY REASON

Do I have you correct here? These were your reasons? Nothing else? Because you are seriously running out of chances to convince me that your hammer was anything other than bogus.

My hammer reasons were genuine. You are misinterpreting what I said the majority of the time.

I can only presume that that's because you both scumread me and know IV is Town, therefore you are more inclined to look for any possible reason to dismiss my cases. You are probably either scum or confbiased.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD are you saying you literally could not understand town!innocentvillager motivation for my flip read on Ranger from scum to town? Sorry if I'm misrepping here.

I just said I found it scummy. I thought it maybe possible (but unlikely) if you were just Town, and if so you may be playing badly. That was at the time. Now, of course, my perspective is skewed by the fact that everyone knows you have flipped Town.

I think Mhsmith's confusion and bias possibly arises from the fact that he was never playing at a time when your alignment was uncertain.

[BTD6_maker]

What I am saying is assuming that you are Town. If you are scum, then your argument is obviously scum-motivated. However, if you are Town (and my scumread on you is fairly strong) you are confbiased.

[BTD6_maker]

Here are my current reads.

Weak-moderate Town: Kappy, Shotty, Alpaca
Null-weak scum: Touka's slot, Ranger
Moderate scum: Mhsmith, M&M's slot

[BTD6_maker]

Here are my current reads.

Weak-moderate Town: Kappy, Shotty, Alpaca
Null-weak scum: Touka's slot, Ranger
Moderate scum: Mhsmith, M&M's slot

Why on me, and why on m&m? Naked reads are still naked.

You should have been following my progression for M&M. Naked reads are still reads.

As for you, with every new post, you seem to get scummier.

[BTD6_maker]

Here are my current reads.

Weak-moderate Town: Kappy, Shotty, Alpaca
Null-weak scum: Touka's slot, Ranger
Moderate scum: Mhsmith, M&M's slot

Why on me, and why on m&m? Naked reads are still naked.

You should have been following my progression for M&M. Naked reads are still reads.

As for you, with every new post, you seem to get scummier.

This remains a non answer. What about my posts is scummy? Actual reasons, dude. Getting reasons from you shouldn't be like pulling teeth.

Ditto m&m. Yes, I see that you scum read them. What I don't see is WHY you did so. Reads without reasons are just noise.

I gave enough reasons for M&M if you actually bothered to read my ISO.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: BTDMaker

A bit paranoid of Ranger+Music but BTD voting a townread...yuck

In near RVS? When I said my vote was for pressure to fully escape RVS? When my Townread was practically null? You should have read the post. I would not vote a Townread today, obviously, as it would serve no purpose.

[BTD6_maker]

sorry I got in a car accident last night, hospital post, will be out later today sorry.

Holy shit dude, sorry about that. Get better soon.

Phone posting, but for now I am confused on why Ranger has spent all of her time bickering with M&M, while I am somehow "100% scum". Townie play would be to focus on trying to get me lynched.

@Ranger why aren't you doing more to get me lynched?

I don't know you well enough for you to care that much... why are you buddying me? I'm pushing for your lynch.

Weak-moderate Town: Alpaca,
Null-weak Town: Alexcellent, Kappy, Shotty
Null-weak scum: KAAG
Weak-moderate scum: Ranger, Music And Mail (even within a slot, Music seems scummier than Mail)
Moderate-strong scum: InnocentVillager

Intent on IV

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

This probably gets explained later, but idk how you are scumreading Ranger and M+M together.

They are not bussing.

(So, what im saying is your reads are fake).

Just because I scumread both does not mean I think they are a scumteam. I thought that one of them is likely scum, but probably not both. Ranger has now dropped to nullish so now M&M (a.k.a. you) seem scummier. Your actual content itself is scumread by me, but not nearly as much as RC's.

Mhsmith, I am preparing evidence.

[BTD6_maker]

@btd: I have a plane flight tomorrow, so sometime today would be appreciated.

I have a plane flight tomorrow. I may be V/LA.

[BTD6_maker]

Mod, I will be V/LA until the 4th.

[BTD6_maker]

I am phone posting at the moment.

VOTE: 48 hour extension

I really dislike my wagon, in the sense that I get the feeling it's not at all Town-motivated. I am pretty much only scumread for two reasons: my hammer on IV (which I have since explained) and my refusal to give reasons for Mhsmith. I do agree that I haven't given a case yet but that point will be invalid when I supply a case. Obviously I cannot just yet but I will.

As for my wagon, Kappy is a Townread of mine but I still think he is voting me for the wrong reasons. His sole reason seems to be my hammer which I have debunked. I can excuse that for now as he is in V/LA but giving him a chance to explain and review his read would help.

Shotty pretty much voted because of a reaction as I was sick of explaining the same thing over and over again to a Town that refused to listen. Again, the IV point has been explained.

Titus was voting purely because I voted a Townread. Given that it was nulltown (and practically null at that) and I was trying to put pressure to fully escape RVS, I don't see how that's scummy.

[BTD6_maker]

Theres alot more I want to do today, but with everyone V/LA, I think I want a flip.

So fuck it:

VOTE: BTD

L-1

Why do you actually scumread me?

[BTD6_maker]

Especially as no one on my wagon actually has good reasons for it, as I have explained.

[BTD6_maker]

At the start everyone other than me has a 25% chance of being scum from my perspective. IV was roughly 24.5%. It was worth a temporary vote to generate pressure. I have explained this many times before.

The IV comments were as I was roughly 70% sure IV was scum when I hammered, and a scum lynch on Day 1 makes Town highly likely to win.

[BTD6_maker]

Town can easily end up saying things people think only scum would say.

[BTD6_maker]

My reads weren't fake. They were just too weak to matter. It was a minute gut reads list.

[BTD6_maker]

Well, I am in V/LA and am phone posting. Tomorrow I should be able to post normally and provide my reasons for my read on you. Once that happens, people should reconsider their read. The only reasons given are the same old reasons again, such as "Still waiting for the Mhsmith case", "opportunistic hammer", and "one minor vote barely out of RVS was on a minuscule Townread for pressure". I can fix that, at least the first one. Just wait until I am out of V/LA.

[BTD6_maker]

Yes, I will fix it but I will do your read first. Then I will get on to my wagon reads.

[BTD6_maker]

The Internet wasn't quite working properly. Anyway, now it is fixed so I can start explaining.

First, my point about Mhsmith and Ranger likely being Town vs. scum.

But, I have to be completely honest here.

I lied.

I wasn't 100% sure you were scum at all.

I was actually less sure about you than I was on Music and Mail! Especially with your later posting.

I was kinda afraid I'd be getting lynched tomorrow, and then we'd be in D3 with no assured scum leads, my credibility shot, and nothing to go on.

Interesting how this comes from someone WHO WAS VOTING IV ON DAY ONE. Literally she was voting IV based on explicitly falsely stated reasons (the "100% sure" bit). So basically, rather than make any true effort to lynch her "greater" read (M&M) on day one, or try and force a "lynch that slot or lynch me" debate, she "settled" for IV, while explicitly maintaining at the time that IV was the greater read. It's the epitome of trying to line up lynches, and it's almost impossible to see this coming from an actual town perspective.

Also, note that last bit. Ranger was afraid of getting lynched D2, and yet she's currently voting herself. Why is that? Town is interested in finding the mafia; why in that context even CARE about whether you get to "survive" as a stump? Essentially, town has three mislynches before they lose the game (MAYBE four if we lynch "doused" trees or get lucky with firefighter actions). The value in finding actual mafia on day two DWARFS the value of getting to hang around post lynch. So why does town!Ranger go down this route? I really struggle to see it. Wolf!Ranger, on the other hand, can use the self-vote as a ruse to WIFOM and confuse the town while looking like she's acting from a pro-town mindset.

I'll let Ranger speak to her actions, and I don't want to give anyone the chance to lolhammer... but I feel like she's where my vote belongs today. Alpaca is also in my lynch range right now, and I'm willing to talk about Touka.

This initially got me thinking about scum Mhsmith and Town Ranger. It is possible for a scum Mhsmith to use Ranger's self-vote as an easy wagon to jump on. While I was also on this wagon (and did scumread Ranger) this is Mhsmith saying that Ranger is scum BECAUSE of the self-vote, for not voting someone actually likely to be scum. My scumread was mainly based on trying to force a lynch on IV with 100% certainty. I'm not saying Mhsmith is obvscum because of this (it's actually rather weak) but it was my first clue that there is a possible Town vs. scum situation. For the Towncred or WIFOM argument to even work one must first consider that it is possible that this could come from a Town perspective. Otherwise, if something was only ever worth doing by scum, a scum would never do it as it would expose them. Of course, this is if they do not want to be lynched. Anyway, for the WIFOM argument to work either a scum Ranger should be willing to be exposed as scum or that this can be Town.

This is just a possibility. It is rather weak but it exists, and is part of my reasoning.

If for some ungodly reason I read them wrong and they're town, then they can still scumhunt as invincible town who cannot be nightkilled and therefore cannot be silenced.

Win-win as far as I can tell.
Ergo, we're lynching Music and Mail no matter what.

Yep, here's the first "breeding apathy towards the consequences of mislynching" post that I found. SHOCKING that it came from Ranger

Of course, people often suggested that I was the one "breeding apathy towards consequences of mislynching" later on. However, Ranger's post seems different here to my hammer. Ranger is saying that M&M is the best lynch no matter what, in a manner suggesting that M&M is guaranteed scum. 95% is not that far off 100% and I wouldn't be surprised if that read was also fake. Ranger suggests that everyone should rush to hammer. Despite my vote actually lynching, this seems like a much more forceful attempt to lynch M&M. When I voted IV, four people were already on the wagon and willing to lynch. When Ranger did this, she was the only one on the wagon and attempted to push it to a lynch from the beginning, early-game with not much information to go on. I have to say it worked well (I sheeped because Ranger was uncannily accurate in Open 638) but not enough for a lynch.

Your comment on it though again seems a little like you know Ranger is Town and are looking for a lynch on her. I see two likely possibilities: Either Ranger is scum (which makes you Town excluding a theatre. I will get on to theatres in another post) or you are scum and Ranger is Town (again excluding theatre).

Again, it is weak and speculative, but it is something, and these add up to a noticeable link.

yay everyone self vote for /in-stant town cred

I already explained my reasons.
One, almost everyone is suspicious of me.
Two, I can continue to talk after I'm lynched.
Three, I'm having difficulty getting good reads this game.
Four, I promised I would to innocentvillager yesterday.

So I'll move my vote if I can actually get something productive done. Strong feelings, rather than weak or paranoid ones.

Yeah I don't buy this as a real town process, especially given the doubling down. No townie WANTS to get lynched. This seems WAY likelier to be a fake town process designed to create confusion and "Ranger wouldn't do this if she was mafia" artificial town reads.
VOTE: Ranger

L-1

Again, "Ranger wouldn't do this if she was mafia" doesn't work. Town generally avoids doing thigs that are pro-Mafia but Mafia can do practically anything. A scum can easily get other scum lynched or even get themselves lynched if it benefits their team or makes Townies look bad. It's again likely that one os scum and one is Town.


This is a sample of the Mhsmith-Ranger interactions. Listing everything would be a huge wall and would take far too long to analyse fully. I will, however, try to show this again from Ranger's ISO. After that, here is a list of topics I have to cover:

Mhsmith as scum (individually)
Mhsmith-Ranger theatre
Kappy
Shotty
Titus
Town Mafioso
Alpaca

I will cover these, ideally toDay.

[BTD6_maker]

I'll look through Btd's stuff more later but for now...

Your comment on it though again seems a little like you know Ranger is Town and are looking for a lynch on her.

Explain how you arrive at this conclusion instead of the more obvious "I think ranger is mafia and am looking for a lynch on her". If there is something specific that suggests I KNOW that ranger is town, you should be able to zero in on what that is and why it suggests that. Otherwise it looks like speculation at best and a made up conclusion/accusation more likely.

Of course, if you are Town then of course you are scumreading her and not looking for a mislynch. I was scumreading you both so I thought that at least one was likely scum, so if you were Town I would be more likely to believe you. However, if you are scum then (excluding theatre, which is a special case) I find this to be the most reasonable explanation. This only applies if you are scum, since Town you is almost certainly not trying to line up mislynches. Anyway, I hope this clears things up a bit.

[BTD6_maker]

Doesn't clear it up at all. You said that my comment suggested specifically that I KNEW she was town. Not that I looked scummy or whatever, but that I had specific knowledge as to her alignment, and that my comment in particular implied this. You seem to be back tracking now from your original assertion. Why is this?

"Seems a little like". I never said you certainly knew (and were therefore scum). I said that knowing her to be Town seems more probable.

[BTD6_maker]

I do indeed want an environment where everyone is responsible for their posts. However, I do not want an environment where it is OK to quote-mine and misrepresent people. That is what you are doing.

It looks more suspicious than you regularly scumreading her as your tone suggests several things:

First, your tone seems sarcastic, suggesting that you are implying that Ranger regularly breeds apathy towards mislynching. I personally deny this but perhaps you could have a different meta experience. However, it also suggests that you are scumreading Ranger for this, and simply accusing her of something that can be shown to not be scummy, while also being part of Ranger's meta. As such, you seemed to be scumreading in a way suggesting that you are scum and are looking for reasons to scumread a known Townie, when you can't find genuinely scummy reasons.

Of course, like every individual point of mine, it's rather weak. When everything is taken together, though, my reads become stronger.

[BTD6_maker]

@btd...
1) sarcasm isn't wolfy

2) I was suggesting ranger was taking advantage of this setup to breed apathy. I don't think there was any meta component to that point; what posts suggested there was?

3) quote mining (if you mean citing quotes for evidence) is normal. Misrepping is not. Where and how did I misrep? Or are you seriously suggesting that my SARCASM itself implies a meta read if her? How would that even work?

4) breeding apathy towards mislynches is flagrantly anti town, and is wolfy other than by village idiots. Ranger is not a VI. I also highly doubt this is part of her normal meta, especially her town meta (i haven't researched it, I simply think it'd be dumb).

1. True, but it can imply things. Taken together with everything else, I read it as scummy. Of course, the sarcasm by itself is NAI but with everything else you implied it made other things seem scummier to me then.

2. "SHOCKING that it came from Ranger" suggests that you were not at all surprised to see Ranger being the first to breed apathy, thus suggesting that you know Ranger has a history of this. I'm not saying that I now still think you do, but I am saying that that is the impression I got from your post.

3. Quote mining is selecting very specific quotes while ignoring the context, thus ignoring everything else that doesn't support your point. From your post I got the impression that you ignored everything else in my point.

4. Suggesting what happens even if there is a mislynch is not in itself scummy. Here a mislynch does indeed carry less cost than in other games, as in other games there is the additional cost of losing a contributing player. There has to be a probability of a scumread at which the benefits of lynching correctly outweigh the cost of mislynching. This should not be 100%, which forces Town to No Lynch without Cop claims, for example. I see nothing scummy in pointing out that this probability is reduced for this game. For example, 70% for me would probably not have been enough for me to hammer in a Normal game, but in this game it was, as the required probability was reduced.

[BTD6_maker]

1 I think you need to be careful about how you read into things if this is actually your honest process.

2 I had an existing wolf read on ranger, saw a specific behavior as wolfy, and my comment connected the two after seeing ranger was guilty of it. Thinking that's a meta read is super weird; I feel like what I meant was obvious.

3) I'll go back and look.

4) THE POINT is that breeding apathy is anti town, and as soon as crap like "well u can still scum hunt" becomes acceptable voting rationalization, then scum hunting is near impossible, because it's easy for wolves to hide their insincerity. Votes should always have reasons, those reasons should be aligned towards finding wolves, and through that process, sincere townies and insincere wolves can be found. Mafia 101.

1 and 2: I understand what you mean now. When I was actually making the read I assumed the sarcasm was due to meta but apparently not.

4: I agree when that is the ONLY rationale. Otherwise you could, for example, have a very strong scumread on someone but must still be prepared for the possibility of a mislynch (as I did). In that case it is also necessary to minimise damage done by mislynching, which is in most games accomplished by asking for a claim. In this game this damage is reduced further.

For example, suppose someone claims PR in a closed game. You have to have an extremely strong scumread and be very sure that they are fakeclaiming before you hammer them. Now suppose they claim VT. You still need to be fairly sure that they are scum, but not as much as if they claimed PR. Now suppose (as in this game) that they claimed Tree. The penalty for mislynching is reduced still further so you can be less sure (but still fairly sure) that they are scum before hammering (as I did with a roughly 70% scumread). Ranger had a 95% scumread so would certainly be willing to lynch and accept the risk of them flipping Tree. This was how I interpreted it.

It's clear that if you are Town I am interpreting things differently than you.

[BTD6_maker]

Sorry. My Internet was down for some time.

By the way, Mhsmith, the IC guidelines are specifically for Newbie games, where there is virtually never any reason for Town to self-vote. Here it could possibly be useful in very specific situations, such as turning yourself into a nigh-Deathproof confTown player. Of course, this comes with the hefty penalty of costing Town a mislynch but theoretically it is possible (but rare) that this helps Town. Add this to the fact that Ranger promised to get lynched and you can see some reasons for the self-vote. In fact, Ranger explicitly said it was "not optimal, but viable".

[BTD6_maker]

I never said it was pro-Town to self-vote. I said that it is possible but extremely rare that self-voting is pro-Town. In this case, even if I had promised to get lynched, if I were in Ranger's position I would let Town lynch me and read my wagon rather than self-voting.

What I knew, though, was that Ranger thought she had a reason. That was my point in that post. I fail to see why she self-voted (as do you) but only Ranger knows why she thinks it to be pro-Town (unless she is actually scum and thought her lynch was inevitable, trying to benefit scum by self-voting).

[BTD6_maker]

Was I seriously due a replacement? And does every single living player other than Mhsmith and Ranger need prodded? This game really is cursed.

I never said it was pro-Town to self-vote. I said that it is possible but extremely rare that self-voting is pro-Town. In this case, even if I had promised to get lynched, if I were in Ranger's position I would let Town lynch me and read my wagon rather than self-voting.

What I knew, though, was that Ranger thought she had a reason

. That was my point in that post. I fail to see why she self-voted (as do you) but only Ranger knows why she thinks it to be pro-Town (unless she is actually scum and thought her lynch was inevitable, trying to benefit scum by self-voting).

1) Why did you know this?

Ranger declared this a viable option. That is why I know she at least thought she had a reason.

2) Why do you continue to choose not to deal with the possibility that by self-voting she INTENTIONALLY tried to create a situation where she would NOT get lynched?

This is a possibility. However, bear in mind that the IC guidelines allow self-voting as scum if it benefits your faction and self-voting thus appears to be a scummy action. It is certainly highly risky to use it to avoid getting lynched. If you still think she did that, we can still lynch her.

3) What pro-town outcome can you think of? "Well I'm sure there was one" is an incredible cop-out. Put some thought into it. Can YOU think of any pro-town outcome of this? If you cannot, then you need to demand Ranger explain wtf she was doing and why (or you need to conclude that there was no pro-town reasoning, which then leads ot the obvious next step conclusion that she's mafia).

Again, forcing a thorough explanation (other than "I did this in such-and-such game as well") would help. My only idea is that she wanted to flip so she would be confTown and could thus help to solve the game without suspicion being cast on her, while also being near-Deathproof (if scum did not prime her N1, scum probably wouldn't prime her). It's very rarely worth spending a mislynch, but it's a possibility.

Note that this sort of thing is what most people would call "scum hunting". I'm fully aware that I'm being condescending, but if you start to do stuff like this (as opposed to dumping out naked reads), then maybe you won't get quick-lynched so often as both alignments, and will better be able to show your teammates you're town when you're town (takes off IC-wannabe hat).

I was only quicklynched so often for taking on far too many games at once. My load has reduced considerably now. I can scum hunt and be more invested in all of my games.

[BTD6_maker]

Here's a quick summary of activity.

Kappy is being replaced.
Shotty is banned.
Alpaca and Town Mafioso have disappeared after their prod.
IV is prodging.
Ranger is apparently too tired.
Mhsmith, Titus and I are trying to be active, but with such little contribution it can be difficult.
The game is stagnating.
The mod has been offline for long enough to warrant a force-replacement if they were playing.
We have had 7 completed replacements (8 counting Music and Mail separately)

In short, this game really is cursed. Let's hope the curse does not spread to the replacers.

[BTD6_maker]

I am hoping that one or both scum are inactive. If both scum are active in such a slow, stagnant game our chances look bad.

[BTD6_maker]

I'm sorry.
I'm too tired to focus properly, and I DO need to get sleep.
So this game will have to wait until tomorrow.

Sorry. This is why I thought "Ranger is apparently too tired". It was probably just missing Ranger's sick post.

[BTD6_maker]

Also, if this sort of thing is what most people would call "scum hunting" then I have already scum hunted by answering the points about Ranger. I can't do anything with them, though, until Ranger replies.

[BTD6_maker]

I never said it was pro-Town to self-vote. I said that it is possible but extremely rare that self-voting is pro-Town. In this case, even if I had promised to get lynched, if I were in Ranger's position I would let Town lynch me and read my wagon rather than self-voting.

What I knew, though, was that Ranger thought she had a reason

. That was my point in that post. I fail to see why she self-voted (as do you) but only Ranger knows why she thinks it to be pro-Town (unless she is actually scum and thought her lynch was inevitable, trying to benefit scum by self-voting).

1) Why did you know this?

2) Why do you continue to choose not to deal with the possibility that by self-voting she INTENTIONALLY tried to create a situation where she would NOT get lynched?

3) What pro-town outcome can you think of? "Well I'm sure there was one" is an incredible cop-out. Put some thought into it. Can YOU think of any pro-town outcome of this? If you cannot, then you need to demand Ranger explain wtf she was doing and why (or you need to conclude that there was no pro-town reasoning, which then leads ot the obvious next step conclusion that she's mafia).

Note that

this sort of thing is what most people would call "scum hunting".

I'm fully aware that I'm being condescending, but if you start to do stuff like this (as opposed to dumping out naked reads), then maybe you won't get quick-lynched so often as both alignments, and will better be able to show your teammates you're town when you're town (takes off IC-wannabe hat).

[BTD6_maker]

My understanding was that "this sort of thing" was asking and answering questions about other people in the manner that you did.

[BTD6_maker]

That's one day since Titus posted.

Requesting a backup mod

IV, can you please give your thoughts on why Ranger self-voted, and whether it was scummy or not?

[BTD6_maker]

Kappy still needs a replacement. TM probably does as well.

[BTD6_maker]

Mod, V/LA until 9th July. My Internet is unpredictable here. I will still try to be active when I can, though.

Anyway, still nothing from Ranger about why it was the best option to self-vote. If there is no reply we need to seriously consider Mhsmith's idea, that Ranger was just trying to deliberately avoid being lynched by self-voting, and in that case we must consider lynching Ranger.

VOTE: Ranger

I am fairly sure that at least one of Ranger/Mhsmith is scum now.

[BTD6_maker]

Mod, V/LA until 9th July. My Internet is unpredictable here. I will still try to be active when I can, though.

Anyway, still nothing from Ranger about why it was the best option to self-vote. If there is no reply we need to seriously consider Mhsmith's idea, that Ranger was just trying to deliberately avoid being lynched by self-voting, and in that case we must consider lynching Ranger.

VOTE: Ranger

I am fairly sure that at least one of Ranger/Mhsmith is scum now.

I meant 9th August.

[BTD6_maker]

Mod, V/LA until 9th July. My Internet is unpredictable here. I will still try to be active when I can, though.

Anyway, still nothing from Ranger about why it was the best option to self-vote. If there is no reply we need to seriously consider Mhsmith's idea, that Ranger was just trying to deliberately avoid being lynched by self-voting, and in that case we must consider lynching Ranger.

VOTE: Ranger

I am fairly sure that at least one of Ranger/Mhsmith is scum now.

I hate everything about this post.

1) implied "if ranger DOES reply then never mind"

If Ranger DOES reply, we will need to assess Ranger's response in order to determine whether the reasons were pro-Town or pro-scum.

2) writes it in a way designed CLEARLY to blame me if ranger flips town, while basically just sleeping part of my read on her

If Ranger flips Town, you do look more suspicious, but I am not trying to imply that you are at fault if Ranger is Town. Where do you get that idea?

3) naked "well one of them is wolf" bit

I have already explained reasons for why I think one scum in Mhsmith/Ranger is likely.

4) slides right in to the l-2 slot from someone who's been bandwagoning all game

Have you conveniently ignored the fact that I was scumreading Ranger pretty much from the beginning of the game? Also, as I have explained in the past, the reason I tend to join wagons is because I want my vote to accomplish more, and push a scumread closer to a lynch, pressuring them. For example, a lone vote, even on a scumread, accomplishes very little. That person is not in much danger. However, a wagon pressurises a person. Here I opted for an L-2 on Ranger rather than an L-3 on you. Now do you understand?

Btd, if you were anything other than consistent mislynch bait I'd be all over you for that vote. As it is... I dunno. I still hate it.

[BTD6_maker]

"We need to seriously consider Mhsmith's idea" was not intended to deflecr responsibility, but was intended to give credit where credit was due.

Also, I am indeed trying to find out which one of you is scum, if any. Right now I was focusing on Ranger being possible scum and trying to get Ranger to justify the self-vote.

[BTD6_maker]

My Internet works now. I will try to post often when my Internet cooperates. Anyway, there are a few points I should probably address.

@ranger: Speaking of that game...

VOTE: btd ^6^ scum post

p-edit
Kappy
s point may be weak but look at BTD's reaction

How is my reaction scummy? I'm honestly tired of repeating myself over and over again.

Mhsmith, I did think an IV/Ranger team was likely, and I found both of them scummy by themselves. The Tree claim was just a weak comment but I would not have hammered a claimed Firefighter.

Also, in my experience, scum have never claimed a PR

. You are assuming that small comments I make are the whole reason for the hammer, which is false. I don't see why you think pointing out the flaws in your reasoning is scummy.

Also, I never said I wanted to lynch a Tree or that a Tree lynch is good. Once again, you are using irrelevant comments as my whole case, which is misrepresenting me. That comment was not hedging.

I will also post a "case" on IV showing why I scumread him at the time.

Did you pick up on this one? Btd6 had done EXACTLY what they said they'd never seen ( fake claim pr as wolf) in that game, AND it helped them escape the d1 noose. I expected this to pong you to the point you'd be a lot more curious about btd6 in general, even if you couldn't mention this specifically since it was an ongoing game. So I'd like to know:

1) did you notice it?
2) if yes, why didn't this make you a lot more interested in sorting btd6?

Also, we've both seen btd6 as town (open 644) and wolf (micro 610). What about this game makes you think it's more comparable to the town game than the wolf game?

There is a major difference here. When I made that post, my only completed games were Opens. The game I fakeclaimed Seer was a closed game. The difference is that in an Open a fakeclaim either guarantees a counterclaim or has a high chance of one but in a closed game this doesn't happen. I originally claimed to out a PR (I thought I was lynched) but once I realised I wasn't I could simply keep on pretending to be the Seer without risk.

This is an Open.

[BTD6_maker]

Alpaca asked btd the same question (why do you think smith is scum) repeatedly and btd kept ignoring it. Imo it's a poor look for both of them (alpaca for literally doing nothing else for like a week, btd for dodging what should be a super easy question to answer). I don't know it's really strong on either of them though.

Wrt btd, I'd been skimming their meta, and I don't see flagrant differences between town and scum for them. There seems to be a bit more of an inward focus to them when they're scum, especially under pressure, at least in open 638 and micro 618. In this game I see similar tendencies, though it seems a bit dampened (but much more inward/defense focus than in open 644, where they were wagoned d2).

Notable other town games where they got lynched:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
There's a notable lack of investment in self defense in both those. IMO it's pretty particular for a meta read though.

It's also annoying because the odds of btd having been primed on n1 are essentially zero for obvious reasons, which means that there's no chance that we could essentially buy an extra mislynch here if we're wrong. That said, if I buy ranger as town (and I re-read open 635 and didn't see the kind of posts that you cited as indicative... but that IV vote was so bad, and the whole self-vote saga looked terrible and manipulative in my book too), they'd probably be my next best guess as to who is a wolf, especially given the flat-out lie surrounding the whole "claiming by is scum indicative while I'm fake claiming pr as scum in another game" bit.

With the House MD game I was not as invested as I could have been (considering I had 6 active games at that point, far too much for me to take on). In fact, in the end I was ISO diving everyone, completely missing the fact that I weakly Townread someone who replaced out, and scumread the replacee. In short, not a good game for me.

With Newbie 1708, I had stated that their reasons for scumreading me were not valid (mostly because I was the JK's target on a No Kill) and had gone into probability theory before I was hammered.

Check out Newbie 1700 for better meta. I was one of the two Day 2 wagons and throughout Day 2 I consistently defended myself and pushed on RadiantCowbells (the other wagon), who was scum. I may not have done it as effectively as possible (that was my first ever game) but I tried.

[BTD6_maker]

A No Lynch should never have happened, especially with the enormous deadline.
I agree that Mhsmith supporting the wagon but not voting until the last moment looks scummy, especially if Ranger and Mhsmith are the scum pulling off a theatre throughout the day. (Mhsmith explicitly called my attention to this so it seems like a possible attempt at WIFOM). Mhsmith could have known this lynch was unlikely as neither Xkfyu nor Alpaca wereonline to post and PantherPunt Townread Ranger. Of course, this looks scummy even if Ranger is Town but it's even scummier if Ranger is scum.

Anyway, for now:
VOTE: Ranger
This lynch should have happened yesterday.

[BTD6_maker]

Seven alive players didn't show up. Five of them are town. I called the town out as a whole. Was this not obvious? I mean shit, even the wolves I'd have expected to show up to pretend to be invested in the game.

As far as who the wolves are, I honestly don't know. There are two wolves and five bad town. Ranger has decent odds of being a wolf (if she's actually town she's damn right this is going down as one of her worst ever games). I lean decently on Panther as town, although his "I'll be back before eod" bit reeks given that he wasn't actually back at eod. The rest? Beats me. Anyone with solid reads on anyone inside
{dgb, Titus, alpaca, btd} I'd be interested to hear. Anyone inside that group that feels like producing useful content would be helpful too.

Mhsmith, you are calling out all 7 other players. The gist of your posts approaching deadline was "Deadline is coming, everyone vote Ranger!" Let's see who that excludes:
DGB, myself, and Titus were all on the Ranger wagon.
Ranger herself may or may not still want to get lynched. To be safe, let's assume that she doesn't. She has no reason whatsoever to hammer herself.
PantherPunt and Xkfyu both Townread Ranger and as such would probably not have hammered.
That leaves a grand total of ONE person: AlpacaAlpaca (whose stance on Ranger is unclear).
Why do you try to blame "two scum and five bad town"? (Or, perhaps more likely, "one scum and six bad town").

VOTE: Mhsmith

Ranger, I said that one action taken by Mhsmith was scummy because of its interaction with you. I did not say Mhsmith was scummy because of his interaction with you. Even then, your logic seems somewhat shaky but I think you have a possibly valid point. I will vote Mhsmith for now but I will be willing to switch back if necessary.

[BTD6_maker]

Quaroath, I should still be able to post here. My Internet is unpredictable but I can still post throughout the day.

I will inform you, though, that I may be unable to post during the last two days (or have to resort to phone posting). Also, I may not have good Internet from 1st to 3rd August but I will try to post.

Anyway, as for the state of the wagons, there is something unusual:

Each of the one-vote mini wagons are on either myself or a Townread. However, the strange thing here is that three of my Townreads are the people on these wagons.

The Mhsmith wagon is on a scumread of mine (which is why I am on it). However, two other scumreads of mine are on the wagon as well. (Titus is much weaker than either of Ranger or Mhsmith).

[BTD6_maker]

My Internet should hopefully be better for now. Hopefully.

Anyway, there are two interesting points, both of which happened in Newbie 1700.

Firstly, outing PR reads is the one thing I should not have done. I am not sure what to make of PantherPunt and DGB. I currently Townread both of them. DGB seems like a very confused Townie at the moment.

Secondly, Doctor is a role that SHOULD never be lynched. However, it happens. Indeed, it happened purely because a Newbie hammered without intent. While I do not support No Lynches, this risk must be balanced against the benefits of lynching. This is just a possibility, but staying off-site when a lynch is imminent and near the deadline could be beneficial to scum as intent would have a lower chance of becoming a hammer due to this risk. Ranger probably presumed someone would give intent. Since this is just a possibility (and Ranger was completely off-site) this is unlikely and thus very weak, but worth bringing up.

[BTD6_maker]

No wonder I was so confused. My conclusion was correct, that DGB was a very confused Townie (in this case, Firefighter). However, claiming now is very anti-Town. Also, such obvious softs are comparable to my softing that Thatguy was a Cop.
However, I do agree that Mhsmith's reaction to this seems very scummy. It seems as though Mhsmith saw the softing and was trying to rolefish the claim.

Anyway, I will not counterclaim.

[BTD6_maker]

I did not realise that it was a soft at the time. All I read from it was that DGB was very confused.
What I now think, though, is that scum would naturally be paying more attention to figuring out the PR and thus pick up on softing more than VTs.

[BTD6_maker]

Interestingly, Ranger is on-site but not responding to the request for claiming whether she understood the soft.

[BTD6_maker]

She was practically shouting it

in hindsight

. With the hindsight that DGB is Firefighter, it is easy to see examples of this. Without such hindsight, it is much harder. Alpaca missed it. I missed it. Titus missed it. PantherPunt missed it. For example, I just read DGB as confused. To say that it was obvious after knowing it was true is confbias. It is not ludicrous if it happened to the majority of us.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD6_maker is a hard read. I don't see a lot of good from him. I don't remember anything particularly egregious from him either, though, so he has that in his favor.

Other than...
- the hammer vote with a blame-deflecting "hey you can still scum hunt" and an absurd "scum would be likely to fake claim tree"
- the return to the blame-deflecting mindset when talking themselves into a ranger vote in 292
- the "ranger v smith is v/w" in 626
Etc.

Seriously, ranger, talk through your btd read, because your consistent lack of curiosity wrt that slot really makes me think your engagement there is just strategic. If you are town and have an actual town read there you REALLY need to justify it.

How many times will you use the same old points time and time again?
For 1, I have refuted this many times in the past. I did not blame-deflect and the "absurd" comment was never my hammering reason.
For 2, this was again not blame-deflecting. Ranger was a scumread of mine. Also, note that I was actually voting Music and Mail, my stronger scumread.
For 3, I had given an explanation, and that explanation has been debated.

In short, you are trying to justify scummy pushes on me using old, refuted points.

[BTD6_maker]

My Internet is fine today, but I will have to resort to phone-posting if I post at all tomorrow. After that, my V/LA will end.

[BTD6_maker]

You already know I am scumreading you and Ranger.
Titus is also a scumread, but this is weaker.
PantherPunt, Xkfyu, and Alpaca are Townreads of mine.
DGB is confTown.

I will fully explain the "why" later.

[BTD6_maker]

I am out of V/LA.

Seriously, Mhsmith? As soon as one person votes me you immediately join.

My scumread on Titus is weak and it is hard for me to pinpoint anything terribly scummy. I got a bad gut read, though, from her accusation of Panther being scum with you for not voting you at deadline when there was no one on your wagon and he was more confident about DGB. Other than that, her Towniness and scumminess mostly even out, but with a slight scummy read.

My lynch pool is {Mhsmith, Ranger},

possibly

Titus.

VOTE: Ranger

I personally think that this is the wagon that is more likely to go to a lynch out of my lynch pool.

[BTD6_maker]

I parked my vote on you because I thought you were scum. However, I doubt PantherPunt is scum with you as I Townread PantherPunt.

For my Townreads, giving reasons is much harder as not much can be said to be clearly Townish. These things can be faked by scum so finding specific examples are not much help. My Townreads were mainly gut, in that they seemed more Townish than the others when their posts are taken together. This becomes interesting with Xkfyu. Previously, I had strongly scumread Music and weakly scumread Mail, probably as RC's regular play style is one that I find very scummy. Town Mafioso made it nullscum and Xkfyu made it Townish.

Titus and you are possible partners. I scumread both of you, but to different extents. However, first Ranger and you as partners should be considered. In this case, this would involve a lot of theatre, and the question is whether a scum flip of one of you will make the other look Town. It's a possibility, especially as I am fairly sure at least one of you are scum.

Today a Ranger wagon looks more feasible, especially as we are seeking to avoid what happened yesterday.

[BTD6_maker]

Why did DGB switch votes to me without doing so for any reason? It ia critical today that we lynch and the Ranger wagon was heading to a lynch. Seriously, if Ranger is in your lynch pool, you should be voting for her. This lynch failed yesterday, and it shouldn't happen again.

[BTD6_maker]

Yes, DGB is confTown, and I never attempted to counterclaim or say that she is scum. Instead, I said that her play was a mistake. Before her switch Ranger was at L-2, which would be L-1 if you vote.

If Ranger is your #1 lynch candidate, it is better to vote for her. I currently have 3 votes. If you switch to Ranger, she will have 3 votes, one more than me. If Ranger is more likely scum, switching is the right play. No compromising is necessary.

[BTD6_maker]

A majority is also willing to lynch Ranger.

[BTD6_maker]

Alpaca is willing to compromise on you if necessary.

[BTD6_maker]

I meant Ranger, not you.

However, given that both you and DGB have Ranger above me in scumminess, Ranger is the better lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Ranger

With 2 No Lynches we really need to start lynching. Ranger and Mhsmith have escaped the lynch for too long.

[BTD6_maker]

I live in GMT time. I was sleeping at the time. When I woke up I found that the deadline was over and there was a No Lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

I am primarily pushing for a Ranger lynch. (Or Mhsmith - they are roughly equal. I do not mind which one of them gets lynched, but for now it looks like Ranger is more likely.)
However, I am OK with a Titus compromise if necessary. This is my lynch pool today.

[BTD6_maker]

There are not 8 people who are not voting. There is only Mhsmith.

Mhsmith, your optimal play is probably to hammer. We can't risk a No Lynch today.

[BTD6_maker]

If you want to vote Ranger I can unvote and switch to Titus.

[BTD6_maker]

I can understand the Town motive for the hammer (Panther is desperate to avoid a No Lynch so he lynches at the first opportunity) but it still seems scummy. We can only hope now that DGB was correct on even one night or Ranger was primed, or that this was a Town hammer on scum. If Ranger was primed, it was probably Night 1 as Ranger looked like a possible lynch for Days 2, 3, and 4.

[BTD6_maker]

Panther has a lot to answer for. Unless he was just fed up with the No Lynches (I was, but I didn't want to hammer just yet after Mhsmith's posts) it seems very scummy. I think he is almost certainly the opposite alignment to Ranger. If Ranger flips Town we should lynch him if we survive the night.

As for Ranger claiming Town, I always do that myself as either alignment (I did in Whispers) so I find it NAI. Unless you have to tell your scum partner something important, there is no need to claim scum as scum.

PantherPunt-Titus is a possibility with PantherPunt bussing. Another possibility is PantherPunt-Mhsmith.

[BTD6_maker]

I guess in hindsight I seem scummier. It's obvious when you know who the scum are. I thought PantherPunt was very Town, though.

[BTD6_maker]

Panther looked much more Town than me. Just in case Town survives, I thought it is better that I scum claim by hammering instead, hence trying to get you to vote Ranger. It was worth a try.

[BTD6_maker]

I give permission for revealing the scum thread. What about you, PantherPunt?

[BTD6_maker]

Quaroath, can you please list DGB/Shotty's protections?

[BTD6_maker]

I give permission for revealing the scum thread. What about you, PantherPunt?

[BTD6_maker]

Quoting because the scum chat still isn't public.