Mini 1820 — Lazy Summer Mafia (Game Over)

[Raskolnikov]

Hey all. Only familiar with jarjar, infinity, and vaguely aristo although they're all from games I'd rather forget ever happened.

Everyone else; nice to meet you.

[Raskolnikov]

I have some townreads which are actually pretty good for this early but nothing stands out as overly scummy.
I thought aristo was kind of fake until the naomi comment which was really good for this early.
The Rb thing is good in that it progressed the game; but as a reaction test idk. I see scum do both of these for towncred a reasonable portion of the time too, only DGB seems to question it (infinity kind of?).

[Raskolnikov]

Okay you're scary.

"hey this guy is really relaxed let's see if he's always like this"
I see you literally massacre in like your 1st newbie game as scum.

How/where did you learn how to play? You're not an alt.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

Explain all of your scumreads.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Naomi-tan

[Raskolnikov]

Naomi's weird. On one hand her explaining how she's feeling in that depth reads very genuine and I don't doubt she is very nervous.
One the other idk what put her on the defensive mentality from the start and how she approaches this is almost apologetic. I don't really like her offering explanations for other people because its kind of assuming they're town or at least not forcing them to explain in their own words. The closest thing to inquisition/scumhunting is probably asking about the votes on manuel though that's moreso defending as well and considering manuel is meh.
98's is good though as an explanation.

[Raskolnikov]

I think 1-2 scum are likely in the inactives at this point

[Raskolnikov]

I have no idea why you'd suddenly defend me like that :/ It seems kinda out of no where, given that by the votes with no text that the people on me are looking for a reaction its really strange that you'd think they are scum reading me. the only one that is, is RB...

How do you assume this though? The same kind of vote can also be
a) an actual scumread (not mutually exclusive with wanting to see the reaction)
b) scum hopping/lazy vote

[Raskolnikov]

Well A is out because if you vote without giving a reason then it can't be a scum read

Do people actually think like this?

and B would only apply after the second vote or so. as you can't hop onto a bus thats yet to form. Its not impossible but its just unlikely enough for me to talk about it.

"bus"

more importantly I wanted to see how they'd respond, though its more interesting that you responded the way you did.

How is it interesting? Please go into details.

[Raskolnikov]

Naomi is english your first language? Serious question.

[Raskolnikov]

Erm... No? You can't slip up and make a mistake twice in one post, and also used the scum bussing term would definitely make me scum. This post is suspicious.

I saw these posts but when I looked over it, given the sentence structure (use of "though") and the post made previous+afterwards, it was clear in context as a typo (when you think about it for a minute).
Missing that is okay if it's just done at-a-glance though. That's fine.

But not believing him when he says that and trying to cast mad shade on him is really hard to buy.
Like either you thought about it, looked over and seriously came to that conclusion (??) or you didn't think about it in a non-shallow way before saying its extremely suspicious.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually you technically could be looking at the game in a bizzaro, alien way to anything I'm used to if you really do believe all things you're saying.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay let's be extra thorough. I have time.

I saw the gist of what RB was saying was: "I don't think naomi is scum, but IF she is scum she is likely scum with one of those voting her (bussed)". This is a reasonable stance given the nature of the votes and even from my pov I could see that.

What problem do you have with this then; you think he scumslipped or something with a typo?

[Raskolnikov]

Well there we go!

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: DGB
When you get back we should talk :)

[Raskolnikov]

Maybe he's been savagely destroyed

No comment on anything that's happened?

[Raskolnikov]

Naomis at least being consistent with the value on activity/pressure. The unprompted readlist and effort to advance the game is a good sign.

@Manuel I'm not townreading her

[Raskolnikov]

I want to see aristophanes return now.

[Raskolnikov]

Thats it?

[Raskolnikov]

Go home LQ you're drunk.

[Raskolnikov]

@IPS reads?

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah, I thought you'd follow up on the infinity thing tbh when you came in today.
Also, no strong feelings on naomi?

[Raskolnikov]

Realtalk I've waited all of yesterday and the day before for aristo and DGB to show up . They've been posting in their other games and odds are they do read this thread but no.

DGB I was mostly wanted to engage with (as opposed to hard-scumreading), given her experience but I guess not. Maybe get good insights but mostly I think a slot that potentially dangerous should NEVER be allowed to get a free pass on day 1 involvement. If she is actually that good idk but until otherwise I see every playerwith that postcount/years as a potential nachomamma. When I asked she didn't go into naomi/ips and answered me about her read on me in like a half-serious (kind of reaction testy?) way, which is still okayish if she then actually talked to me and followed it up but she just disappeared. Fluff comment on the replace and nothing done after the naomi unvote is ugh and like she doesn't feel the need to comment on 90% of the game. Unvote itself is OK but still non-committal ("for now" + caveat) and unexplained and because she didn't go into the read while it was up we'll never know for sure what (if any) reasoning was behind it as opposed to something that could be a retcon explanation later. ALL of that said there isn't really reads to judge and the playstyle could technically just be laziness instead but it's still annoying I couldn't get anything to read deeper into (nullscum).

Aristophanes is scum though. He reads really fake to me and the one thing which was going for him in my eyes was the depth of the naomi read (59 -> part of 63); usually people thinking that in-depth so early and unnecessarily/unprompted is a huge towntell, though even at that point I was wondering how he took it that far ("It's just a few things like that which make me think "towny." " makes it sound like he has a massive multifaceted read). But looking into aristo meta to he actually does this as scum!
mini 1781
micro 627
I see him love to give out townreads in creative ways as scum and in general hand them out like candy almost to a fault; with all of that there's little effort faking scumhunting. You see a few of them are almost ridiculous in context or really stand out for early reads. OTOH in his towngames the townreading is dialed back a LOT and you see a lot more scumhunting focus.
I think what happens is when something strange/confusing happens from a player, while town are actually trying to judge align aristo since he knows it's town can afford to put the effort into explaining exactly why their town and misunderstood. I think the naomi read really is spot on and so insightful and that naomi is town (after her content) but its like aristo could come up with that read so early/confidently he never actually doubted it. This is the kind of read where I'm either a genius and he panics in scum pt or I'm a total idiot for reading this deep into ~5 posts but I'll go with the former. Along with naomi read the tone kind of bothers me (57, 69) and I think the timing is he got lazy at the traditional point where scum realize they have to start faking doing something useful (in a town position having that early townread is a big help though) but these are more minor.

Though this is kind of awkward because even though aristos probably scum (and dbg is still a promising lead) the inactivity still makes it feel like a big waste doing this, like I almost feel bad(selfish?) doing my own thing compared to everyone else. But I don't really scumread the actives (some NULLs but eh.). TBH I think 2016 lurker-lenient meta helps scum to the point where if they strategized to they could intentionally just lurk and get out the d1 lynchpool, town lynch scummiest active town, they come back day 2 active and nobody cares. Nowadays I see people so against that kind of lynch + I think there's a natural tendency to just sort what you see in front of you so null in a pool of 5 will still be top scumread. 2 of my games 2 scum players were just afk and prodded and people were literally forced to lynch scummiest looking town and it's like okay I think I understand why they used to policy lynch them in old games. But anyways!
VOTE: Aristo

[Raskolnikov]

I wanna say more but I'm posting via hotel wifi and should probably go to bed now (past 2 am here). Most of rest really are on the townread to null range though.

RB treated inf pretty friendly while he scumread him, though tbh he's done good work the bulk of the game. Literally would be town if I didn't see his scumgame and the sheer confidence I felt I saw there, just how relaxed he was...
IPS doesn't do things unless engaged/asked and logically has a shot at being scum but I feel compelled to sort interesting people.
LQ actually made me laugh a few times but done little in actually saying anything about anything that means anything (kind of half-tried?).

Side note I think slandaar's closer to town but even so I wanna see him do more with the read on me and a whole/overall analysis if possible.

[Raskolnikov]

mini 1781
micro 627

Yes first link is supposed to be http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7924457
key posts being http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p7839869 + http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p7842350
defending VT vs wagon.
But like man I'm actually weirded out reading aristoscum meta. Usually looking when you know alignments it's like "oh of course its so obvious" because you look from that frame of reference but in this I keep seeing things which are usually towntells ewww.

That automagical appearance tho. Aristo you don't contest any of the meta points?

Seriously am I being fucked with? I make a case on how he tends to townread easily and excessively plus buddy people as scum and he responds calling my case the most beautiful one he ever saw and helps with the broken link. Smh the irony (of course from a guy named aristophanes too)

[Raskolnikov]

prodge, home tomorrow

[Raskolnikov]

It's time for my grand return :v

[Raskolnikov]

Okay LQ is 100% scum.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually it's not as bad as I thought..

[Raskolnikov]

So aristo wagon didn't really happen, LQ and rb sort of interacted with him before their stuff happened (too complicated to make sense of with right now). LQ vote-unvote not as bad as I thought. After a brief aborted catchup and defending himself he left again.

I know people are going to be like "but dude where have you been?" and "activity is nai and so on.
But there is a distinction I want to make between reasonable inactivity and the inexplicable avoiding of this one game while posting elsewhere... and it's not like its for a few days but more like THE ENTIRETY OF THIS GAME.
Thing I don't understand is why scum wouldn't have gone on if aristo WAS town? Easy sheep/vote after what I said, low commitment and a fantastic votepark while I'm V/LA. Only infinity went on though and he'd probably town plus already scumread aristo from before. Pretty weak inference (and still too meager content to be more than like ~60%) but if nothing worse shows up this is still good. Onto the others.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: KTS

Somewhat sheeping slaandaar on this.
KTS is pretty much what I said about aristo but worse. Insane buddying on not just me but most players in general, pretty much townreading anyone half-charismatic or decent.

His thought processes don't make sense for town. "This player did really bad X. strong townread tho." "This player is potentially really good scum. obvtown." "I really don't know what to make of this. eh he's prob town why not?" It's like he's commenting on what people do but then assigning a read afterwards that has no relation or correspondence with the judgement he made? Literally as though he's throwing reads around arbitrarily. Mix and match the statements and "analysis" with the names and it reads the same.

[Raskolnikov]

I don't like DGB either and her association with KTS DOES read SonS.
"x is scummy and I could be on the wagon" but always keeping them behind other scumreads is the classic scum partner read.
KTS comment on DGB + replacing actually feels like a cheeky thing scum KTS would say to a partner (and on the flipside makes no sense for town KTS to say when talking about a scumread). Possibly setting up a dgb-naomi association for pushing later.

[Raskolnikov]

If kraska's scum she's either ULTRA hard bussing with the ips/dgb scumreads, or I'm misreading one of those two, or the somewhat unlikely scenario we're both gods at reading people d1.
It's weird because she's townreading people who I also am okay with but are objectively scummy on the surface but her explanations are actually realistic (unlike certain others I've mentioned).
On one hand she did case me and not the other 2 but I like how she moves vote after writing all of that because I was VLA instead of voteparking and using it as an excuse. I think scum DON'T move vote after writing a big case for the vote because they pretty much write what they do IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY their vote and will be happy with being useless as long as it looks good.
All in all actually decent. If I am right on KTS and DGB, third is more likely aristo (who has good associations with both of them as well) or maybe a nullish like LQ.

[Raskolnikov]

If scum IS kts/dgb/aristo and I called it this early day 1 I wanna a scummy nom (<3).

For now best thing is to should consolidate on one of these and I think KTS is probably the worst.

Skimming LQ/rb doesn't actually look that interesting. I still think rb's probtown and LQ is overall murky, the way he posts too with quote + short comment and in general microstatements is really annoying. LQ if you could readslist and summarise your thoughts in an easier to digest format that would be great.

[Raskolnikov]

lol he says I'm throwing around reads but doesn't bother to have me explaining it.

You'll explain yourself when you get voted won't you? :^)

[Raskolnikov]

I personally find dgb worse than kts and aristo beacuse There posts are just confusing while the others I can understand at least..

+2

Aristophanes

— Raskolnikov, Infinity 324
+2

DrippingGoofball

— JarJarDrinks, kraska77
0

Infinity 324

—
+2

Killthestory

— Aristophanes, Slandaar
0

JarJarDrinks

—
0

kraska77

—
+2

LicketyQuickety

— rb, MariaR
0

Manuel87

—
0

MariaR

—
+1

Naomi-Tan

— Manuel87
0

Raskolnikov

—
+1

rb

— LicketyQuickety
+1

Slandaar

— DrippingGoofball

+2

NOT VOTING

— Killthestory, Naomi-Tan

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2016-08-19 14:00:00)

(Fri Aug 19 @ 2:00 PM EST)

.

@folks this is kind of a joke and it's time to get things moving. Consolidate. If it has to be DGB or aristo instead I'm fine but this one is my preference.

[Raskolnikov]

I mean surprising enough all of the (2)s are actually okay but splitting 4 ways doesn't do anything.

[Raskolnikov]

I also want to establish a townbloc out of a few players with naomi in it.

naomi/infinity/rb possibly; I want scum to have to decide between killing one of these or killing someone like me/slaandaar/kraska who have similar reads to me.

At this point naomi town is essentially a given especially because her low exp and how she reads as a player makes the flipside (really good manipulative scum) feel very implausible; but I also feel she's the type scum could leave alive for a later mislynch and make her look scummy through big arguments and retconning the game (or alternatively manipulate her vote). I want her to be considered unlynchable so scum either kill her or have to play with an unlynchable.

If anyone disagrees I want to hear why; either a) you think I'm misreading the game or b) scumread me, but for whichever one please go into detail. Even doing the minimum and only agreeing on one is still worth.

[Raskolnikov]

KTS - it's exactly what I said, he tried to charisma out of the argument he got completely wrong but it just doesn't work on me. He hasn't come back to the argument or done anything since, he knows it, he didn't reevaluate so hes scum. Hasn't provided the walls when replacing in either as an aside.

Don't forget the IPS slot too (worth looking) or the awful reads/catchup.

[Raskolnikov]

FTR the fucking around, while the most obvious or apparent thing, is actually kind of nai for him compared to the other things. Though a skim does show him getting falsely townread in some of his scum games for it as "too scummy/aggressive to be scum explanation" so watch out. If anyone townreads KTS or the previous IPS please explain.

[Raskolnikov]

^what is the point of this question?

[Raskolnikov]

Rb what would you do if all your scumreads voted each other?

[Raskolnikov]

This KTS wagon looks like shit is the reason I don't get on it.

Aristo + Slandaar? No thanks jeff.

You realise aristo's vote is like RVS and therefore not actually indicative of anything right? I hate to break it to you but if you have 8 scumreads you're PROBABLY not reading the game well.

[Raskolnikov]

MariaR you're scumreading all of LQ, infinity, slandaar, rb and me??

[Raskolnikov]

@Naomi

This setup consists of 3 Mafia-aligned players and 10 Town-aligned players. There is no Serial Killer or Mafia Traitor.

Would not have bothered reading half as much into associations if this wasn't stated FTR.

@kraska Recently I've had games where scum just lurked and I played it too slow and safe so even though my reads were good I just died before having any game impact... At this point I think killing self doubt and doing stuff even if turns out wrong is still better than waiting for the elusive smoking gun which may never come in time.

[Raskolnikov]

Can everyone not voting respond to my case?

[Raskolnikov]

Wouldn't him being terrible actually decrease your read-certainty because it's more realistic he'd use bad logic as town? Can you eli5 whats making the difference from LQ badscum to badtown?

I don't know the context enough to know if your reaction is actually reasonable or overblown here but if you can, instead of talking AT him (which realistically is futile if he is scum) summarise why he's scum instead of town misusing meta?

[Raskolnikov]

Jarjar you agree with my kts/dgb analysis even though you scumread me?

[Raskolnikov]

KTS serious question. I've seen you be into scumhunting, being aggressive and dictating the game, from our games and all those silly MD threads too. Even though you screw around often it isn't 100% of what you do since you reach points where you actually get half-serious (almost impatient of no-one taking you seriously) and try to have some influence on the lynch.
Here you've just been completely passive and content doing nothing all game though and its not even like you haven't been here. When you came in, after you got some time as well (while still not under pressure), and now while under pressure, nothing.

Even if IPS slot was just naturally scummy-looking AND you genuinely came up with that catchup (absurd reads given the justifications) AND didn't feel the need to act/vote on those scumreads at the time...
The KTS I know 100% has enough of fucking around at SOME point and does something if the game is going to shit. Every single thing you've done is defensive though and on the passive side and even here you're pretty much giving up and rolling over to die. If you're town why are you so uncharacteristically a b-tch this game? If anything this is perfect situation for town!you to do stuff because in theory it still helps even if you get lynched.

[Raskolnikov]

Earlier. You read the game and had really confident scumreads but didn't feel like voting them or anything? How do you do a catchup and all that time reading the game but do nothing with it.

Even now it's like. If I'm in your position I still take 5-10 minutes to say something substantial because it should help even if I get lynched. IT ISN'T AN OBSCENE REQUEST you could have already done it with the time you spent bitching and earlier saying irrelevant shit. Holding out for a massive wallpost or something to save your ass is way more scum logic "if I don't save myself the effort is all wasted" and wanting it all-or-nothing instead of any compromise. The busy defence doesn't even work if you had time earlier but decided not to use it.

[Raskolnikov]

Pushing the notion that unless you have hours to post you can't do anything of value so it's not even worth it.

Painting it as though it's our fault he's not contributing and as though we're actually not allowing him to do anything.

Along with literally the safest claim in this specific game (scum with any ability can "prove" joat) I'd just rope this.

The alternative is what even? With how this setup essentially reduces all power roles to 1-shot I don't even think this could be verified or misproven by counterclaim or such (unless via town Joat) so I don't see the point of waiting.
Odds are if he is town and has a cop/gs he gets roleblocked anyways or his inno killed next night and we still have no way of trusting him at any point. Way more likely he's just plain scum though especially with this roleclaim.

Spoiler:

Upside in the unlikely scenario he's town
a) he gets nightkilled which is somewhat better than ml
b) he doesn't get messed with n2, andgets an inno which we can't trust unless he dies (scum would then kill that inno though)
c) he doesn't get messed with, gets a guilty/track/killblock (this is in general unlikely), but even if we lynch we still don't know if its a creative bus
Alternatively he gets messed with and we don't have anything to judge but wifom vs the chance he's scum and claimed to be roleblocked

Basically there's no situation where he's confirmed town even if he was town and the max benefits are all small... if the setup was different cc/no-cc with role and setup speculation could essentially confirm or deny the slot but that's not the case here.

As scum there's icky situations down the line
a) uses a minor scum role (tracker or neap or something) correctly and we don't know how to judge it
b) claims guilty on someone and trades 1 for 1 with town which is REALLY BAD... or unlikely, decides to bus in mad WIFOM style
c) claims inno on someone, kills them and we have mad wifom
[or claims to get roleblocked or just completely lie about role if he's goon]

I think him claiming the role plus the specifics of this setup mean even if he was town the role has already essentially lost utility. Therefore it doesn't make sense backing off using the traditional logic of always backing off PRs d1 for normal setups.

Lack of CC means nothing in this game for Joat so it's not like standard games where you want to wait before doing it; in this case unless town JOAT specifically exists it shouldn't even happen. If this setup was similar but with all n1 instead of n2 I would see some merit of not lynching him today because big deal. But it being n2 means taking the lynch off the table until at least d3 which is really damaging when he's 95% scum.

[Raskolnikov]

All that said DGB lynch is almost as likely scum so eh. I'd still rather get rid of this ASAP so we don't get stupid WIFOM taking up all of town discussion latergame.

[Raskolnikov]

Huh. Since you mentioned it I just looked back if I ever played with it since I wasn't sure how it came to mind. Thing was actually scum JOAT with a 1-shot track in that game which I remember seeing and thinking scum tracker would actually be cool in that it's like neapolitan-esque but stronger in function. Either that stuck with me or I subconsciously remembered with the joat thinking... which is weird and actually kind of cool.

[Raskolnikov]

I want you to look at his 2 posts with reads, follow the individual reads on each person and the justification given, then figure out how town could think that way.

[Raskolnikov]

The reads and progression on each person specifically, as opposed to top to bottom all mixed together. I was going to make a massive case actually with all the reads per person grouped like this but it didn't (and doesn't) seem necessary so.

[Raskolnikov]

For future reference, please under no circumstances lynch { naomi + mariaR + infinity }. Have other strong townreads but these are the ones who probably aren't good enough as scum to get this townread if that makes sense (no offense infinity :v).

Pretty certain this flips scum, and given that, DGB as well but I'm actually second guessing aristo/hip plus the rb townread especially since LQ's better now and FA was whatever. In general unsure of likely thirdscum and some of the weaker townreads.

If it flips town I still wouldn't doubt naomi/maria/infinity but I'd look into a more experienced scumteam getting misread.

[Raskolnikov]

A lot of maria is from around that time she selfvoted and how she acted around there which I COULD be overvaluing but eh. Play around KTS doesn't look s/s either tbh and rem was fine. Admittedly near-conftown might be going too far (compared to naomi and infinity) but still pretty confident in this.

She almost seems too happy and carefree for a bus if that makes sense but otoh if kts is town idk why scum maria gets involved at all on it.

[Raskolnikov]

Fire if you think DGB is fine who are you scumreading?

[Raskolnikov]

DGB lynch is probably a forgone conclusion but today's still worth taking slow. Don't want l-1 and claim stuff at least for a few days.

Even in the best case scenario of DGB/hiplop(aris) I don't feel good about third and realistically DGB's more bad in general than something with a smoking gun (then again the kts meta seemed like it). I want FA's thoughts on the game tbh (I don't get his last post?). Kraska replacing is kind of unfortunate actually. She's a townread but I wanted to see how she played around her read on me to be sure.

Infinitys dissecting the wagon is pretty much is pretty much how I approach it. Thing is it doesn't feel as useful as usual since like every active player stayed active and involved with the wagon and most inactive players just stayed inactive and uninvolved when the tell really works when there's some contrast. No one I townread was less involved/conspicuous than they should've been, maybe a little of say slan (or unlucky timing) / kraska but they already scumread him so eh. DGB and hip's votes are bad for their own sake (don't really know how to read hip tho).

LAMIST still dumb as it was in last game... Can make sense applied to an experienced player (I remember scumreading on it exactly once) but is garbage otherwise. Literally all of naomi and most of that kind of player just looks LAMIST in general.

[Raskolnikov]

I'll be able to talk about that soon. I can't see why he would be so aggressive against me as scum here.

..........

No.

I don't want to deal with this.

V/LA for next 3 days till I figure if I need to replace out

This is really confusing me... It's like an emotional response to not wanting to deal with this? It's not "I don't want to deal with this" with the v/la and potential replace unrelated right?
But not wanting to deal with infinity himself or with people talking about the "slip"? How does either even do that?

Don't even scumread this but eeeeeeh?

[Raskolnikov]

oh. Huh.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm stronger on manuel (hard to explain), kraska's above a lean and I forgot why I was townreading LQ actually. Jarjar hasn't done anything wrong though the sheeping means I haven't seen a case and something big I can really strong townread off. Maria thing is something jarjar would do but pushing via lamist isn't exactly difficult either. Thing is though he's happy to vote DGB/hip/fire and like he's scum he's probably scumreading (and going to be forced to vote) his partners unless I'm completely misreading so I don't even know. I mean maybe there's a universe where is scum with dgb/hip and is trying to push maria and fire as an alternative in hope of it catching but it sounds unlikely.

[Raskolnikov]

My lategame approach would actually be really good here. Stay tuned.

[Raskolnikov]

I reread that interaction, LQ actually does come across more realistic than rb. Still annoying I won't ever be able to understand the full context of that argument though.

Notably seems to be doing due diligence on the (rb)slot today too though, voting dgb but he hasn't forgotten about it. 1324 is fairly reasonable and I'd expect scum to rely on that meta read and not bother doing that even. Not necessarily, but probably.
Actually, given LQ<->rb scum is ridiculous;
ScumLQ voting scumDGB over a town rb slot doesn't make that much sense. LQ scum with DGB could and should pretty safely use that metaread to vote since it'd also be a juicy cw. In this situation he also can't switch later/halfway through when the lynch is very likely to go through as a) it'd look terrible b) as scum he'd know it'd look terrible. Unless he's bussing though he's not doing the bussing in way that would give him much towncred.
LQ scum with DGB town would/should just use it to be off the lynch. Although this isn't as safe of an assumption right now since switching a bit later (when DGB lynch is even more guaranteed vs FA) could also work and would technically be better. Ruined now as a bit of a stronger tell for future behaviour but probably worth having this now.

Only caveat is this is technically the same LQ that had that entrance and this is almost clearing him via burden-of-proficiency. Iow very small chance he is scum but just bad and playing oblivious to the above. This is probably paranoia though.

[Raskolnikov]

I think I'm putting too much of my time into this game...

[Raskolnikov]

revisiting this atm

[Raskolnikov]

bad idea saying that this far in advance :/

[Raskolnikov]

p.s. about 80% done what I'm doing atm, will probably finish it tomorrow morning. Last time it failed because of setup spec mistakes but this time..

[Raskolnikov]

Cause it gives scum an extra day to prepare their claims?

I guess you're right but it shouldn't be a big deal

Best way is to spring it and immediately popcorn, so even daytalk mafia gets no time to react. This early on d2 it'll be days remaining of d2 plus night plus d3 in best case scenario.
Also posing it as a hypothetical makes it happen slowly as people discuss and its less likely to happen at all vs strongarming. But even if it never happens people can pr hunt based on just the discussion of it...

[Raskolnikov]

DGB if you don't have time to do anything else I want your top scumread (slan? jarjar?) thoroughly explained.

[Raskolnikov]

Slandaar are you here?

[Raskolnikov]

bump for pagetop

[Raskolnikov]

Alright. After a ton work of work I can post my findings. May this be glorified in postgame or, alternatively, go down as a story of hubris.

First was going over my townreads. ReISOing.
infinity and Manuel I am positive are town. Btw, that infinity lynch isn't happening, ever, he's basically an alternate me in how he analyses this game.
LQ, kraska, and MariaR(rem) I'm 95% on now. LQ's a bit wild but what I said earlier still mostly applies. His read/case on infinity I heavily disagree with but like manuel the approach is town. Kraska's complicated but the gist of it is the only thing that stops me from being positive is there's a tiny chance she's played an amazing scumgame and faked townanalysis on a nachomamma level, which is rare and she's probably the only townread here capable of faking it all entirely intentionally. MariaR(rem) is also complicated, I get a ton of tone and emotional towntells and it's similar to how naomi was but just not quite as good, with some meta check. Even saying this though I don't think any are realistically scum; below the other 2 doesn't actually mean weak in this context. Just that inf/manuel are even stronger.

I will go into a specific read if required but going into all of them would end up 500+ words, spam the thread and most importantly probably doesn't even change people's minds on x read. I know at this point expressing this kind of townread confidence comes off as somewhere between naivety or excessive pride or arrogance, but it can't be helped. I've done this before on smaller scales with decent results though hopefully I get to use this as an example going forward.

The rest of the playerlist are potential scum. Jarjar's pretty null altogether and I think he could fake this level of play without problems. Slandaar townread I mostly overvalued one specific attitude and I kind of ignored him because he pushed the same as me yesterday. Rb(FA) might the best of this bunch as his earlygame and impetus was still good but rereading the LQ exchange (plus that weirdness "I refuse to vote my scumread because another scumread is on it") I can't put him solid town. DGB's probably scum as is hiplop(aristo) via that slot. Admittedly it's annoying hip came in because I can't really read him personally.

That's a pool of 5, with 10 combinations of teams. Now one of my favourite things to look for are "negative" associations. Finding things which suggest people could be scum together is well and good but not so good in accuracy, but interactions that I'm positive scum don't do I can feel good relying on (similar to townhunting vs scumhunting imo).

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
First thing I feel really good about ruling out is FA(rb)/DGB. I could go more into this if necessary, but rb seems genuinely interested in DGB during d1. 614 stands out and I also don't think rb's approach on dgb around this time (ctrl-f DGB in the ISO for efficiency) is how scum defend scum. Notably it looks DGB voting slandaar actually influences what rb does in a way that wouldn't makes sense for daytalk scum. I kind of want to just assume rb is town for this even but I'd feel it might be careless, rb following townself logic might still be able to do this and I haven't seen his offsite body of work, but at the very least I can rule this one out. Technically also rb himself being less likely scum than the others makes me more comfortable ruling this out. FA himself and fa/dgb post replace is kind of inconclusive but it doesn't destroy or take anything away from the rb stuff. Unfortunately even though both voted slandaar I can't find any negative association I feel very strongly about there especially as the wagon was unlikely to go anywhere; rb with slandaar seems eh though.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
This isn't as strong but I think hiplop(aristo)/jarjar is very unlikely. Mainly from 1466. It's actually really interesting, jarjar essentially was looking at hiplop's games with DGB to compare it to hiplop's interactions with DGB here. I don't think it's definitive ruling out dgb/jarjar, as scum could have motivation to setup an association here especially considering how DGB looks, but scumjarjar doing this to scumhiplop is almost inconceivable. It doesn't make hip look good, why would scum jarjar casually cast doubt on hip if they're scum together like this? If it's to open up bussing if hip gets lynched it's incredibly creative, and the only other reason would be in some weird way if they tried to push the reverse angle on this if DGB is town and give hip credit. But it makes no sense. Jarjar in general is among the better of this 5 but his scumgame onsite really impressed me and I know he has a lot of offsite exp so I don't feel safe ruling him out. I've seen him meta here and in town games often but not in that scumgame (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... ser_sort=G); but common sense says even if he would employ meta as scum it would either be to discredit town, defend a partner or maybe rarely bussing. But this usage kind of accomplishes nothing if they're s/s.

Just ruling those 2 reduces it to 4 teams, which I've sorted through reading FA(rb) and jarjar individually as more likely town than the others. There's other interactions but I don't feel any of them are strong enough to rule things out like the above.

Hiplop(aristo), Slandaar, DGB <- my pick
Slandaar, Jarjar, DGB
FA, Hiplop, Slandaar
FA, Slandaar, Jarjar [very unlikely]

Now there's a few things here. Even though his ISO isn't that bad either one of townreads is wrong(probably not), one of the negative associations is wrong (very doubtful), or slandaar's scum. Given he's not been THAT involved and very experienced I can definitely see him playing this way as it. Looking at slandaar again is kind of worrying though since there are a few things I pickup which are usually towntells for me. Looking at his meta though I see similar as both unfortunately, altogether he looks really good with scum and I don't think I can reliably read him. Don't really know if DGB/slan is beyond distancing; watcher claim is actually the kind of the thing slandaar would tell a scumbuddy to do(looking at pts). Slan talking with rb is ehh, slan is like tying to get him to play better which is usually a VI thing but could maybe come from scum being annoyed their partner is playing like that? Rb engages the discussion so slan was kind of required to say something back, and because of that it doesn't necessarily have to have serve any purpose beyond being a response. Doesn't seem interested in reading him through their engage.

One thing I feel safe assuming is about slandaar's play around the hiplop(aristo) case I made; I think that if slandaar is scum that reaction only makes sense if aristo(hiplop) is as well (not vice-versa though, hiplop scum doesn't have to be with slandaar). I think slandaar did look and give attention to the case and if asked would have brought out examples why. But I don't see why as scum he would go there for an innocent. Unless it was intended as buddying or to get towncred somehow, but indirectly buddying the lurker is a weird goal to have and even doing that I don't think he'd bother going that far. It'd have been buddying an inactive and soon to replace slot, or defending for towncred something unlikely to get lynched anyways, both I really doubt happened.
If this is assumed, take away 2 more (the jarjar teams, because of rb jarjar thing) leaving 2 teams. I also doubt slandaar/FA based on their interactions although I'm not 100% ruling that out.
Slandaar looking at DGB meta otoh I don't think the same applies, DGB is very possibly a lynch and distancing/bussing via meta like this is possible. Especially convenient if you come back to it on like d3 and try to take towncredit then.
But at this point I'm not convinced slandaar is 100% scum; I don't think I've made a mistake in talking about associations but it's possible one of my townreads is wrong. I draw the line at the 3, with it being conceivable one (just one though) of kraska/lq/maria are wrong. Accounting for this and dividing into 2 scenarios, depending on slandaar's alignment.

Slandaar scum:
Hiplop(aristo), Slandaar, DGB <- #1
FA, Hiplop, Slandaar <- #2
Hiplop, Slandaar, Mistaken Townread <- #3 [feels very unlikely that both DGB and FA are town over one of the townreads though]

Slandaar town:
Hiplop(aristo), Mistaken Townread, DGB <- #4
FA, Hiplop, Mistaken Townread <- # 5
Mistaken Townread, Jarjar, DGB <- # 6
FA, Mistaken Townread, Jarjar [negligible? would require DGB and hip both being town over one of my townreads, plus FA and jarjar BOTH being scum when they don't look that bad]

Organising again, these feel most likely
Hiplop(aristo), Slandaar, DGB <- #1
Hiplop(aristo), Mistaken Townread, DGB <-
FA, Hiplop, Slandaar <- maybe
FA, Hiplop, Mistaken Townread <- eh
~Kind of doubt 3/6 though.

Now the thing is, I'm not actually sure what now. Lynching hip is probably the best although the process of wagoning itself won't get much from V/LA and considering that it's hiplop. WRT DGB the idea of testing the watcher is kind of intriguing even though she's probably scum and it likely does accomplishes nothing anyways (if she's town maf probably roleblock or something). Slandaars scum unless I'm misreading a townread but I'd feel more comfortable with hip or dgb because speculation aside I at least feel my individual scumreads on them. Jarjar and FA don't even look bad they just haven't proven they're town (which will technically be harder now because of pointing this out like this).

Bright side is even if I'm wrong on one or two things just lynching in the pool is still game winning barring a catastrophe. Also even if I'm not alive or can't follow through on this approach later it'll be very interesting to look at this from postgame perspective.

Obviously, these points will be contested. More likely the reads than the association talk. But at the very least some of the association ruling out we can probably agree on, and anything specific it's easy to talk about now.

[Raskolnikov]

Happy to see you two, btw!

[Raskolnikov]

I was glad when I saw you two as replacements since the game should get a lot more fun now (regardless of your align actually). Vedith you won't change the townread on that slot right?
I haven't played with you fire but I'm vaguely familiar since I see you almost everywhere onsite, impression is you're actually kind of similar to vedith.

[Raskolnikov]

I feel like I just wrote an essay and now I'm trying to talk but my tendency is to keep talking like I'm writing objectively which is weird...

[Raskolnikov]

If either of you two have a scumread beyond dgb/hip and can sort of back it up I'd like to hear it. I have a lot to say on literally everyone so the discussion should be interesting.

I know dgb/hip is lazy now but it wasn't lazy at the time either of those scumreads started (and lurking after being scumread is understandable from scum) and I'm really struggling to see it elsewhere.

[Raskolnikov]

My second ever newbie game both scum were lurky then replaced out and plot-IC was like "scum rarely replace out in a newbie" and I like townread them partially on that and "what are the odds both are inactive" and I failed miserably in Tvts looking for scum elsewhere.

[Raskolnikov]

Do you think the aristo case is fine too? I might have slightly exaggerated tbh but I still believe the major points. I think reading a slot you should consider every player within it.

[Raskolnikov]

Scum replace out a lot more than town. I've joined enough games as a replacement to know that.

the scumclaim

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: hiplop
forgot to vote

[Raskolnikov]

Where did firebringer go, I was more interested in him. Isn't he like the better player of you two?

[Raskolnikov]

I'm sorry I shouldn't deadpan that, we don't know each other enough

[Raskolnikov]

Infinity keeps doing all the things that I do except he posts it whereas I mostly keep it to myself.
I make a note on something that happens and then see him bring it up with a similar approach., when I was reisoing my townreads leading to this (yesterday and day before?) he literally started doing the same thing in thread.
Look at his reads on each person holistically (+progression), the depth and analysis is really impressive.

[Raskolnikov]

I've held off on being this explicit as this level of confidence likely makes a few people uncomfortable, including possibly him, and to be fair he's never really been in any danger of being lynched despite the few scumreads.

Though going into my strong townreads is probably less efficient than if we go into the more nullish slots.

[Raskolnikov]

So anyways tldr if people can't be bothered.
Scumpool { hiplop(aristo) > dgb > slandaar? > ?jarjar > ?fa(rb) (these last two keep switching) }
Probably town but still worth discussing { mariar, lq, vedith(kraska) }.
slandaar, jarjar and fa are what I'd prefer to talk about because of how nullish and mixed(in rb's case) they are so sorting any of them one way or other would help a lot.
Association things also happened but even if we don't talk about them as long as people remember and check back latergame, agree or not it should help.

[Raskolnikov]

oooooh do you actually have experience with slandaar?

[Raskolnikov]

well if you could please.
He's like an enigma to me, I've spend maybe an hour there and all I learned was that what little I thought I knew was probably wrong.

[Raskolnikov]

Was actually planning to massclaim today after getting hiplop to claim.

For entirely selfish reasons tbh. VT.

[Raskolnikov]

Idk if FB reaching the same conclusion is a good thing though because I don't know in the first place if it's actually even optimal or good here...

[Raskolnikov]

I want to clarify, even though I'm VT I'm actually a named VT (raskolnikov) which makes me confirmed town.

[Raskolnikov]

It's a joke based on named townie, which doesn't actually exist in normal queue (I think?).

[Raskolnikov]

LQ massclaim kind of doesn't work unless everyone does it. You will have to claim eventually because this is started therefore it's better if you cooperate and do it now.

[Raskolnikov]

So from what I know standard operating procedure is to always lynch in the PRs.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay no more jokes from me I guess. I thought it was funny to suggest as VT

[Raskolnikov]

Hey 4/5 of my scumpool is on that.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually how do you judge it if multiple people support it and are willing to hammer.
If 2 people have intent then I don't think whichever is the one to hammer first should be treated that differently from the other one?

[Raskolnikov]

I think he's town but I'm going to bed now. Tomorrow.

[Raskolnikov]

Manuel and slandaar claim roles please.

[Raskolnikov]

Looking at his meta though I see similar as both unfortunately

You will need to explain this.

You need to use singlescum games as an example. SK/Multiball games are very different meta I don't feel like explaining why but it should be obvious.

What I was saying is that posts I thought had towntells in your game turned out useless because I saw similar from you both alignments... in total reading into it was kind of inconclusive and it feels careless assuming I can read you after seeing those scumgames. I want firebringers read on you because I doubt your s/s and he's probably town individually.

Also claim. Your argument is you won't claim now because the claim was a bad idea in the first place but that doesn't really follow... with all that's out already there's no downside to finishing.
Don't like this stubbornness though; I feel you should know better?

[Raskolnikov]

That's kind of ridiculous tbh. A one day role madness.

[Raskolnikov]

How are you doing Rask?

Writing that sucked out my energy and I don't even have the confidence I had then so it was like a massive waste of time. The associations findings are still good at least.
I mean hip/dgb are still probably scum but dgb/slandaar would mean slandaar used meta against his scumpartner which feels kind of unlikely. But if slan is town then one of my townreads is wrong but I just went through them all...

[Raskolnikov]

@Vedith why DGB over hiplop?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: DGB

[Raskolnikov]

What I was saying is that posts I thought had towntells in your game turned out useless because I saw similar from you both alignments... in total reading into it was kind of inconclusive and it feels careless assuming I can read you after seeing those scumgames.

Yes. And what I am saying is I have very high suspicion you looked at games which are not relveant if you did look at any.

Also claim.

Your argument is you won't claim now because the claim was a bad idea in the first place but that doesn't really follow... with all that's out already there's no downside to finishing.

There is but lets reverse that. Is there an upside?

Don't like this stubbornness though; I feel you should know better?

Did you actually look at my meta?



We can all play that game. I feel the town as a whole should have known better than to massclaim. Don't like your stubbornness. You should know better than to not accept my stance? especially when your best argument is 'wah wah everyone else has claimed!' (not an argument).

Jesus christ. I'm saying meta didn't help me and you're arguing that as though it should be all the way in your favour and anyone who in depth meta'd you would come away with a strong townread (I kind of stopped after it looked discouraging). Which is like, okay, if you want to start arguing why you should be TOWNREAD on it, go ahead (though idk how much I'd weigh someone's self-meta analysis). If I had points against you I'd understand 100% you arguing against them but here my stance is pretty much just that I don't feel safe townreading you so you're between my scumreads and townreads.

If you aren't satisfied with this the onus is kind of on you to tell me why I SHOULD be townreading you, not the other way around. I mean to your credit now I buy vedith's claim and you have a bad association with DGB so I think you're more likely town here but if you have some shining example to your favour that blows it out of the water by all means share.

[Raskolnikov]

UNVOTE:

[Raskolnikov]

@slandaar I don't think you read my wall. Either that you failed to comprehend it.

[Raskolnikov]

[Raskolnikov]

If I was cop I would check slandaar tbh. Or vig.

[Raskolnikov]

@MariaR Hey you probably shouldn't say that as a PR claim
(I'm VT so I can say whatever I want )

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: hiplop

[Raskolnikov]

Infinity's order is good, would also be fine with vedith deciding though.

Jarjar don't worry about credence, I'm liking you more now and I think you'd have my support in a 1v1 with most of the others regardless if claiming after. Personally ok with that.
Though now that you said that scum might already guess and maybe change claims or something because of it via daytalk.

Also I think wanting vedith and vts to claim again is kind of redundant.

[Raskolnikov]

Ughhh waiting for all claims is gonna take forever like yesterday

[Raskolnikov]

I really shouldn't read backwards it fucks with the timeline...

[Raskolnikov]

Hey slandaar you should claim

[Raskolnikov]

prodge

[Raskolnikov]

Not a lot of scum are ballsy enough to say they're obvious town, that's something that gives me pause. He could feel like he can get away with that after a hardbus on DGB though.

transcend from tomato mafia #neverforget

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: slandar

We should vote people until they claim

[Raskolnikov]

wtf LQ I trusted you

[Raskolnikov]

Get infinity claim before day end though, don't put LQ in selfhammer range yet.

[Raskolnikov]

@jarjar disagree
hip protecting slandaar over any PR claims doesn't make sense

dgb/lq/hip the dream

[Raskolnikov]

So just to be clear

Jarjar claims gunsmith guilty on LQ.

Infinity claims doctor (same role as hiplop).

That's game right? There can't be 2 doctors right?

[Raskolnikov]

Who said that DGB/hiplop were lazy scumreads

[Raskolnikov]

its ok. i screwed up on d1 too mislynching kts on faulty meta.

man I can't believe that super early aristo case was right tho. im trying to imagine being in that position, rvs ends and then BAM

[Raskolnikov]

well to be fair I think we'd have lynched dgb/hip even without cc's. or at least us 2 would've kept pushing it based on reads.

lq was surprising though

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: hiplop

poor jarjar. you know you don't actually get the win if you don't survive?

[Raskolnikov]

wtf...

[Raskolnikov]

well at least there's 2 lynches available I guess

[Raskolnikov]

alive
Raskolnikov - VT
Infinity 324 - Doc claim, visited vedith
Slandaar - VT (lateclaim)
MariaR - tracker (infinity visited vedith)
Vedith - watcher (checked fire)

dead
Firebringer- VT
Manuel87 - VT (claimed PR)
hiplop - Doc (late claim)
JarJarDrinks - Gunsmith
DrippingGoofball - Mafia PR/Watcher claim
LicketyQuickety - Mafia Goon/VT claim

So 4 VT, 5 PR of which 1 is scum
infinity town would mean double doc
maria + vedith town would mean town tracker + watcher

[Raskolnikov]

I think 4 VTs is reasonable though. Slan scum would mean 3 VTs to 5 PRs which is like eh.

[Raskolnikov]

Vedith did you get no result or no one visited

[Raskolnikov]

Game balance wise would suggest that a VT is a goon.

Are you actually sure on this?

[Raskolnikov]

you bastard I see what you're doing. saying we should lynch in VTs and that you think slandaar is town

[Raskolnikov]

I kind of agree on tracker being useless except for the sole purpose of getting the player confirmed as a PR if they out results first and target PR

[Raskolnikov]

2 docs, gunsmith, watcher, tracker if all PRs are true
VS mafia voyeur, goon, ???

is this a reasonable level of power? also technically tracker as town has usage of checking 1 VT claim to make sure they haven't gone anywhere
I'm not sure if this was designed with early massclaim in mind

[Raskolnikov]

How does everyone feel about the VT count?

[Raskolnikov]

If I learned anything about game balanced recently it would be that this is a good PR number because of the d2 modifier
also this game was made after that thread that berated people for not giving town enough PR

In a perfect world I'd just lynch slandaar (and if that fails I have my own ideas between the rest I will not share)
but in a practical sense I'm feeling incredibly lazy and wouldn't mind a 1 for 1

[Raskolnikov]

you have to work on your reading comprehension

[Raskolnikov]

vedith if you knew I was town who else would you lynch
I don't actually have much motivation to play this anymore or defend myself but if I get lynched and you get night killed that's probably not ending well

[Raskolnikov]

i forgot about gunsmith again

[Raskolnikov]

if we drag this day out for like a week I might get the motivation to play again back and ISO and whatever

otherwise we can just lynch in VTs and have probably win even 1 for 1, if I'm wrong a third time after kts/hip then my reads were garbage here and I dont really deserve a win anyways

[Raskolnikov]

that pagetop though

[Raskolnikov]

where are you getting 7 from

[Raskolnikov]

I was wondering if he wasnt doc as well but
he isnt roleblocker because vedith wasnt roleblocked
rolecop or something similar would be kind of useless?
scum doc makes sense with gunsmith

I would think either towndoc or scumdoc but in no way a non-doc mafia visiting pr.
but if my read is wrong there and hes scumdoc i might as well quit playing this game

[Raskolnikov]

oh i forgot about naomi

[Raskolnikov]

but what is he doing if hes scum

its like hes working to get other people townread with his posts

[Raskolnikov]

actually idk
to claim doc after another doc would take guts but what else is a possible claim in that situation?
1. role has to visit
2. role doesn't roleblock
what are possible town fakeclaims other than doc that fit
im not getting much alternatives actually, maybe bodyguard or something? what else would be a good claim?

the only big alternative is like VT claim and not taking a night action, but in that case the choice between claiming VT or doc would already be decided that night by taking an action or not.
and since they planned LQ to claim VT the ideal would be to split partners between the 2 (1 pr 1 vt) I think
IOW choosing a target that night locks you into the doc claim(?) when tracked and seen, unless we can think of any alternative fakeclaims that he would have been able to think of real quick.

but even if its POSSIBLE i dont want it to be true.

[Raskolnikov]

i forgot about KTS too

[Raskolnikov]

Killthestory,

Town Night 2 Jack of all Trades (Role Cop, Neapolitan, Friendly Neighbor)

, was lynched Day 1.
Naomi-Tan,

Town Night 2 Innocent Child

, died Night 1.
JarJarDrinks,

Town Night 2 Gunsmith

, died Night 3.
hiplop,

Town Night 2 Doctor

, was lynched Day 4.

mariar

Town Night 2 Tracker claim

(role vouched for by infinity)
vedith

Town Night 2 Watcher claim

Infinity

Town Night 2 Doctor claim

(role does in fact visit and doesn't roleblock)

Slandaar,

Vanilla Townie claim

(delayed claim)
Raskolnikov,

Vanilla Townie claim

Manuel87,

Vanilla Townie

, died Night 2.
Firebringer,

Vanilla Townie

, died Night 4.

DrippingGoofball,

Mafia Night 2 Voyeur

, was lynched Day 2.
LicketyQuickety,

Mafia Goon

, was lynched Day 3.

[Raskolnikov]

KTS and naomi roles are actually really strong and i forgot about them
this is too much town power I think?

[Raskolnikov]

man i dont want to go back and ISO all over again

[Raskolnikov]

I think slandaar would've killed in the PRs tbh

[Raskolnikov]

actually nvm that, there's no way people lynch firebringer plus he'd likely figure out setup spec or whatever

good night

[Raskolnikov]

[Raskolnikov]

tomorrow

[Raskolnikov]

fuck this game though. this was supposed to be over and now it needs to be started all over again.

[Raskolnikov]

12 days is a lot of time at least

[Raskolnikov]

@rask were you ever paranoid of me this game?

Not before hip flipped doctor

[Raskolnikov]

Pretty sure sland is town.

What's your individual read on the slot, no associations.

[Raskolnikov]

to claim doc after another doc would take guts but what else is a possible claim in that situation?
1. role has to visit
2. role doesn't roleblock
what are possible town fakeclaims other than doc that fit
im not getting much alternatives actually, maybe bodyguard or something? what else would be a good claim?

the only big alternative is like VT claim and not taking a night action, but in that case the choice between claiming VT or doc would already be decided that night by taking an action or not.
and since they planned LQ to claim VT the ideal would be to split partners between the 2 (1 pr 1 vt) I think
IOW choosing a target that night locks you into the doc claim(?) when tracked and seen, unless we can think of any alternative fakeclaims that he would have been able to think of real quick.

Can everyone weigh in on this
I want to know what alternative claims existed for someone who was seen visiting.
I think bodyguard would probably have been the only other option in that situation (most other PR claims would CC someone else or not work)

[Raskolnikov]

but even though scumdoc would fit so would mafia watcher+voyeur

[Raskolnikov]

because with 2 scum alive you don't claim VT with LQ when you can hide in PRs
it would be to slandaars favour tbh if he didnt delay claim
and if you plan to claim PR you HAVE to visit so it makes sense.

[Raskolnikov]

with eitherits WIFOM
whether you would claim doctor knowing how it would look with another doctor flip
vedith saying they forgot role to then CCing DGB while saying LQ is town is mad wifom

[Raskolnikov]

slandaar how can I trust you though
there's the dgb-you thing but with daytalk its not cut and dry and
I'm not even sure if you'd be that averse to bussing d1 someone like dgb with what I've seen of you this game

I mean that thing plus the excessive town power are really in your favour and I don't actually have a logical reason to doubt you but I'm just not 100% sure its impossible for you to be scum anyways I guess?

[Raskolnikov]

Okay I could lynch vedith today. I think that DGB bus is plausible and I can't live with the concept that my infinity read was wrong here.

[Raskolnikov]

I accept 1v1 with vedith.

As is even if infinity is scum and wins if I get return lynched (say slandaar dies and maria doesn't buy into too many PR logic) he probably deserves it.

VOTE: vedith

[Raskolnikov]

Slandaar if you want me to trust you on the PR/VT spec then I want you to trust me on infinity.

If I am wrong on him here I will never get over it I think.

[Raskolnikov]

Actually with maria also preferring infinity this might be a lost cause.

[Raskolnikov]

LOL

[Raskolnikov]

If he was a Mafia doc, why would he visit me out of all people?
If they had a Mafia doc, they would be worried that town have a vig and protect themselves.
If he wanted credit for visiting someone not dying, then why visit the watcher?

Now, these don't actually make sense
1. If he was a mafia doc, visiting watcher gets you a very low chance of being watched (watcher won't watch themselves for obvious reasons)
2. Compared to visiting LQ, if infinity was tracked to LQ and flipped as scumdoc it would incriminate LQ, and LQ flipping scum with inf claiming doc also doesn't look good there. Yes it would risk vig shot, but doing it risks both getting caught if infinity is scum.
3. This one is just stupid.

You have infinity at super town on like faulty night logic and claim wifom logic whereas everyone else seems to be considering their read of the player himself. I don't know how you are so trusting of double doc without a strong base townread like I have there, and even in spite of me having that I still have some trouble with it.

Cute turn after I vote, btw

[Raskolnikov]

@Infinity how/why do you townread vedith?

If you're town, his defence of you is actually necessary from his position because if you are lynched on the "there is scum within infinity/vedith" logic he 100% gets lynched next and loses, whereas pushing "scum must be in VTs" is a wincon for him.

[Raskolnikov]

@Maria
How can I explain it... I still know from a setup/spec analysis he almost has to be scum if vedith is town, but compared to vedith my townread on infinity for his earlier game play (approaching everything exactly as I did/would even when I didn't say it out loud) is infinitely better. But thats compared directly to vedith and how vedith claimed, outside of that pool of 2 I'd still lynch him over you because of the roles thing... maybe over slandaar too though I'm less sure there tbh.

Also as an fyi you incidentally came to the same conclusions I had in my analysis on infinity's role (2280) so good job.

[Raskolnikov]

Hmm true.

He just doesn't seem to have much of a plan, scum usually do this late in the game. I feel like he's trying to figure stuff out.

Maybe he could easily fake this idk

How about that kraska/LQ interaction tho

NAI for vedith I think. I was in 1812 and he screwed up lategame there by being scum-careless, but I see it from him as town too. I think he's always "loose".

Going over I think the interaction is actually reasonable, kraska's first post was at that point in the game and she replaced in so it's not nearly as strong as it would be in another situation.
If kraska was there before that point or at game start I think it would be different because you would assume they'd have talked already, but in this case I can actually see it happening semi organically.

[Raskolnikov]

Going nothing would force you into VT claim though, and in that situation you want 1 of each PR/VT fakeclaim.

[Raskolnikov]

Voyeur/watcher synergy is pretty good.

[Raskolnikov]

Uhm. I already explicitly asked vedith if he got a result or not exactly because I was ruling roleblocker out. Scum vedith can't lie (because that ends up in 1v1 with infinity) and town vedith probably wouldn't lie either.
and infinity was tracked going to vedith. infinity isn't roleblocker, if hes scum he's scumdoc.

[Raskolnikov]

did you miss the vote?

[Raskolnikov]

I don't understand where there's a turn.

the "turn" is you saying "rask is scum I'll trade 1 for 1"
and then I vote you and accept
and next thing you say is

Well, if me and you both agree not to lynch Infinity then he's fine.

I'm going to put something later after work to why Slandaar is scum here.

[Raskolnikov]

I feel that Rask is trying to build a mis lynch on Slandaar here for tomorrow.
I think that it should be either me or Rask lynched today.

[Raskolnikov]

that's exactly what I said. There is no difference.

[Raskolnikov]

you said it as a throwaway comment and I guess didn't expect it to be accepted.
but now you're not allowed to back out of this now, you know?

[Raskolnikov]

anyone who wants to vote outside of the 1v1 is claiming scum by keeping the 1v1 alive for 3p.

[Raskolnikov]

if he's scum he's bluffing anyways and doing this to be townread

[Raskolnikov]

It's pretty obvious.

[Raskolnikov]

Rask, why the switch of opinion on sland btw?

reISO and setup is heavily in his favour. When you realise gut paranoia is probably useless when all the facts (association, setup) say the opposite.

Vedith is dying to lynch in VTs and do it both days and his logic on townreading you is shallow AF.

At this point with maria/slandaar all preferring to lynch to lynch within you/vedith, vediths push on me was less viable and he had to try to switch to slandaar (notice that after I vote him) to get something that could get 2 town votes.
but now that I confirmed this he has no choice but to try to lynch me and get towncred through "there's no way scum would do that!" as the only option left available

[Raskolnikov]

if he's town I also don't see how he comes away scumreading someone forcing a 1for1 onto them
and in general anything of what he's saying today.

our situations are actually different, with the distinction being that I started/forced this

[Raskolnikov]

which puts him in a position where the choice is actually very limited as scum

[Raskolnikov]

WRT too many town power, the logical thing that follows is the more powerful the role the worse it is for contributing to too much town power.
A second doc is very dubious if it helps, and even a single doctor is a very weak role (if one say died n1), compared to watcher which is incredibly powerful.

I know some mods like to add wifom into setups so people don't make hard rules like "there can never be 2 of x" and so on and I can see appeal with gunsmith as well, though I haven't played a marquis game before.

But if vedith was the second doc claim and you were the watcher I would still lynch him.

[Raskolnikov]

if he's town I also don't see how he comes away scumreading someone forcing a 1for1 onto them
and in general anything of what he's saying today.

our situations are actually different, with the distinction being that I started/forced this

But he reintroduced it recently.

In a way which was probably to gauge what I'd say (if I am intent on it, there is not much point of not bringing it up and hoping it goes away)
but what is interesting is he viewed it as a 1v1 for today as in restricting the lynchpool for this specific day. Not as a "1for1" which I had accepted.

[Raskolnikov]

Lylo's usually interesting but I just don't care about this game THAT much anymore, even if I win my I know my reads were garbage here after the hiplop flip.
Technically it isn't even lylo but the game not ending when it was supposed to is really annoying, I had already counted this as a win and was getting ready to write it in my wiki. Otoh if it was lylo the danger WOULD probably make it more interesting, the safety net here of not even necessarily losing if I'm wrong makes it hard to care too-too much.

If I was having a really hard time judging between you vedith and slandaar I'd feel more motivation to decide but it doesn't even really feel close atm. If I'm completely honest there is a small chance I'm still wrong and it's one of you or slandaar, but in that case I still would never want to play with town vedith in 3p after today anyways because his logic is insane. I really don't want to second guess my read on you here after what happened last time, and at this point I think you'd almost deserve the win with your play here if you're scum which tbh is a feeling that doesn't help.

All that said it's morning now and I'll probably put some work into this later, and in enough days get naturally back into it. I mean at this point talking about my lack of motivation is more interesting than playing which is rather absurd. But I've been here before and its temporary.

WP though if you are actually scum and getting me to admit this because it doesn't sound good while simultaneously appealing to me 1on1 with what is very relevant inquiry. In that case though you should try to drag me back into this and see what happens

[Raskolnikov]

Actually I just realised the point against vedith also applies to infinity WRT to not wanting vedith lynched and preferring VTs if possible. Vedith is using terrible logic for townreading infinity but infinity is actually fencesitty-ish.

Infinity go into your read on me and vedith again.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not sure if infinity repeatedly referring to today as lylo is significant or what it would mean if it was

[Raskolnikov]

maria how against a vedith lynch would you be

[Raskolnikov]

On one hand it takes infinity a while to get the double doc anti-town conclusion when he played a recent game double rolecop game (1805), but on the other hand him questioning my motivation here when was super lazy in that lylo makes sense.

@rask Do you tend to lose interest in the game during lylo as town? I find in general scum tend to lose interest more often while town is usually more motivated.

But how this is phrased is actually a bit awkward I think.
The question is perfect but the statement after it should be held for later with a judgement on what the answer is, putting that statement here devalues the question itself if directed to scum.

Though infinity scum here would still be an incredibly impressive game from him whereas with vedith it wouldn't be at all a surprise.

[Raskolnikov]

Ironically this choice probably doesn't even matter.

[Raskolnikov]

I highly doubt slandaar is scum but if he is he's probably won at this point already because he could refuse to lynch vedith and do infinity lynch->kill maria->vedith in 3p with me for gg.

[Raskolnikov]

Infinity is more likely to fool me but he's also generally logically and accurate if he is town so it's like a double edged sword.

[Raskolnikov]

I wanted to hold my read on you so I could pretend to scumread you near lynch and use it to avoid a nightkill, but you're the last person I'd lynch in this scenario. I'm surprised everyone else came to that conclusion independently though.

[Raskolnikov]

At this point it's irrelevant anyways since I'm 100% sure you will be the nightkill if the lynch is wrong, and unlike previous days I'm actually a potential mislynch now with whoever is town amongst {infinity, vedith} misreading.

[Raskolnikov]

I've felt uneasy just being tr with being a tracker claim it feels cheap but I guess nothing I could do about it but let me see if I understand

You think scum is also in Infinity/Vedith but

You can't tell if Vedith is obv scum

or

If Infinity is playing really well scum?

That's the gist of it. I still want vedith by far over infinity though. I don't want to be wrong there after my read on him the entire game.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... &start=200
Combined ISO around the DGB lynch is interesting. Infinity is almost disappointed with DGB talking to him which is eh, but both vedith and infinity play the wagon pretty similar with talking about jarjar as a potential association.
Vedith straight up says DGB is scum and LQ looks town which to be fair town(jarjar) agreed on because it was CW-esque and infinity liked that as post.
Thing is with vedith doing the super delayed cc onto dgb is dodgy (enough time passed that no other cc was possible) and his assertion of lq town didnt have any reasoning given unlike the others coming to that conclusion.
Overall I can generally follow infinity and see progression when I look at him but not so much for vedith.