Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

Drone
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Post Post #750  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:33 am

Town does intend to hammer to get someone talking. Town wouldn't hammer without hearing them.
There's this difference, it seems small but it's not.
Even if Chrimi was shot, it wouldn't have cleared tne completely, just lowering the chances. There are two scum alive.

I unvoted Cass because there is no point keeping the vote on Cass. Im honestly getting tired of this argument (Cass/me) as it lost its points already. It's just goes over and over the same points.
We've heard her case, doesn't seem like it was convincing (she herself ain't convinced, calling herself paranoid n stuff).
And I made mine, which are still viable for me and I still think the same.

The latest posts are all the same contexts repeating themselves and we don't really get anywhere.
Not only that, it turns out the claim isn't that bad, and it's all thanks to the no nk on n1.
The game is not lost at all and I feel some extreme overreaction was staged here in purpose (tne).


If scenario 5, tne ain't scummy.
But we can't prove it. We don't know so we'll be working with all the options.

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Post Post #751  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:35 am

While Cass is somewhat right, it does give mafia more information and an easy nk on the main town pr, but at this stage, with our current information we can and will overcome it.
The information mafia gained is at best, a little of help.

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Post Post #752  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:38 am

Also, if Chrimi is lying, we must be in row 1 (2 goons, 1 JK) and in that case TNE is her partner and they planned this together to find the JK (and it worked). This scenario would also lead to a TNE lynch today.

Thinking all these scenario's through makes me understand why Shannon claimed and I now support the decision. I see no way Shannon won't be the NK so it's good she spoke up today.
Can't bake an omelette without killing a few people.

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Post Post #753  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:39 am

In post 749, Cass wrote:I checked Chrimi day 1. No serious interactions with Rocnix/Drone, some with Implosion, Astralflare, PP (and others, not trying to be complete here) - bottomline: she does make sense as NK target,


You're making the assumption that scum will only night kill people who are suspicious of them. When that is very often not the case! I will repeat this again, Chrimi was the best target for a day 1 NK.

Why? Because she was the most aggressive. Because she was the most active. Because she was being pretty universally town read. Who has the biggest potential to find scum? Someone who is able to put pressure. Someone who is able to do so frequently and regularly. Someone who is conf town, and is able to use that credibility to influence people to follow her vote. In other words, Chrimi.

Do you get where I am going with this?

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Post Post #754  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:44 am

AF, my wording may have been too vague, but I am in fact agreeing with you that Chrimi does make sense as a target.
Can't bake an omelette without killing a few people.

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Post Post #755  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:48 am

Oh god no I read does as does not

My fault sorry

I think I need some sleep I'm exhausted
Organizing stuff is tough

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Post Post #756  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:51 am

Also I really like 750
Also I want the answer from the rest of you guys- which is the most likely scenario?

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Post Post #757  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:52 am

So, if we kill TNE and she is scum, Shannon must target Chrimi, in case we are in row 1. Maybe someone said this before, but it's very important.

Crazy thought: would it make sense to no-lynch today? We'd still have 1 mislynch left and a little bit more information to work with. It'd probably do more harm than good, but I'd like some thoughts about it.
Can't bake an omelette without killing a few people.

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Post Post #758  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:00 am

The no lynch would give us nothing.
We want tne's flip. That's vital information

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Post Post #759  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:50 am

In post 747, AstralFlare wrote:Shannon, is your 744 trying to push for a lynch onto Chrimi?


No, not at all. Just explaining that scum had more info than we did, the second that Chrimi claimed BP. (If her BP claim is true)

In post 748, Drone wrote:Basically, it's all statistics. The chance Chrimi was shot/tne was saved/tne way blocked. Statistically the chances are the same.
But I return to my former question, why would mafia target tne?


Yep, so we've got to look at motivation. I can't see why mafia would target TNE.

In post 752, Cass wrote:Also, if Chrimi is lying, we must be in row 1 (2 goons, 1 JK) and in that case TNE is her partner and they planned this together to find the JK (and it worked). This scenario would also lead to a TNE lynch today.

Thinking all these scenario's through makes me understand why Shannon claimed and I now support the decision. I see no way Shannon won't be the NK so it's good she spoke up today.



Thanks! It's worth noting, though, that if Chrimi is town and fake claiming then scum know it - she's only BP if they've got a roleblocker, so if they don't, she's fake.


In post 753, AstralFlare wrote:
In post 749, Cass wrote:I checked Chrimi day 1. No serious interactions with Rocnix/Drone, some with Implosion, Astralflare, PP (and others, not trying to be complete here) - bottomline: she does make sense as NK target,


You're making the assumption that scum will only night kill people who are suspicious of them. When that is very often not the case! I will repeat this again, Chrimi was the best target for a day 1 NK.

Why? Because she was the most aggressive. Because she was the most active. Because she was being pretty universally town read. Who has the biggest potential to find scum? Someone who is able to put pressure. Someone who is able to do so frequently and regularly. Someone who is conf town, and is able to use that credibility to influence people to follow her vote. In other words, Chrimi.

Do you get where I am going with this?


I see that you've slipped - Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2, so scum would not have seen her as conf town on D1.
VOTE: Astral Flare

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Post Post #760  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:21 am

Lol. I only noticed it just now. But also the description of Chrimi day 1 doesn't add up to me. She didn't seem so towny, dominant and scum hunting. She was a bit closer to tne's common read.

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Post Post #761  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:28 am

I'm now one of those nerds with a spreadsheet :nerd:

We are currently 6:2 Town:Scum.

Assuming we mislynch D2:

- And scum kill town every night and we mislynch every day: D3 is 5P LYLO (3:2)

- And NKs succeed but we lynch correctly every day: Town wins D4

- And there are mixed wins: (N2 ends 4:2, D3 4:1, N3 3:1), D4 is MYLO, assuming no lynch an a successful NK, D5 is 3:1 LYLO


Assuming we lynch correctly D2:

- And scum kill town every night and we mislynch every day: D4 start is MYLO, D5 is 2:1 LYLO

- And NKs succeed but we lynch correctly every day: Town wins D4

- And there are mixed wins: (N2 ends 5:1, D3 4:1, N3 3:1) D4 start is MYLO at 3:1, assuming no lynch and a successful NK, D5 is 3:1 LYLO

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Post Post #762  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:29 am

In post 760, Drone wrote:Lol. I only noticed it just now. But also the description of Chrimi day 1 doesn't add up to me. She didn't seem so towny, dominant and scum hunting. She was a bit closer to tne's common read.


What do you mean, you only just noticed what now?

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Post Post #763  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:31 am

Astral talking about Chrimi day 1, and not the possibility of her nk on n2

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Post Post #764  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:37 am

Yep, and I think the fact that she's using 'was' and not 'is' makes it clear that she's definitely talking about N1. So I think AF has slipped. Join me in voting for pressure?

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Post Post #765  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:52 am

Uh, that's a third vote movement from me.
Would be stupid on my part to blame Cass for jumping around votes while doing it myself.
But if AstralFlare will not cooperate, or will not explain himself in a satisfactory manner, I will.
It could also be him messing up his own words (I have this problem too {me accidently voting myself})

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Post Post #766  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 7:58 am

I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

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Post Post #767  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:17 am

You think Chrimi is scum..?
I mean, a more logical possibility is af trying to sound super town by sticking to current "confirmed" towns, horribly slipping.
Don't think it's protecting... You think it's a goon goon?

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Post Post #768  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:20 am

?

I said conf town bc she was being townread by like everyone at that point lol, including me

PEdit:

I mean, a more logical possibility is af trying to sound super town by sticking to current "confirmed" towns


I don't get what you mean

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Post Post #769  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:24 am

Yea conf town was probs a bad choice of words there, something like "universally townread" would have been better.

Would be stupid on my part to blame Cass for jumping around votes while doing it myself.

Nah it won't. Town should be jumping on me to put pressure if anything. Shannon and I are the only ones who haven't had a wagon yet this game. (I think)

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Post Post #770  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:55 am

Feel free to wagon me, I've never been lynched!

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Post Post #771  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:26 am

In post 766, shannon wrote:I think you missed what I was pointing out. It's nothing to do with vote moving on anyone's part. It's that AF makes a big deal about how Chrimi would have been a good N1 target because Chrimi was conf town - but Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2. So that point is false and I think it comes from Scum AF trying to help Scum Chrimi.

Yes, because scum Chrimi pushes for a lynch on their scumbuddy day one..
:facepalm:

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Post Post #772  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:27 am

VOTE: tne I like tne and astral as today's lynches. I really don't think implosion is scum after that wagon on him.

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Post Post #773  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:34 am

In post 738, AstralFlare wrote:Wait I realized Chrimi could have been shot so no kill, Shannon/TNE both town

[unvote]

This honestly makes the most sense. Chrimi would have been the best NK target N1, as I explained someone else.

But so we've narrowed it down to two of PP/Imp/Cass/Drone


Chrimi being the target wouldn't clear TNE. There are two scum and the other could have performed the NK. I don't think Chrimi is fakeclaiming, so that either means that:

1.) Scum targeted TNE
2.) Scum targeted Chrimi
3.) Scum!TNE targeted someone

I don't see 1.) as the most likely choice. As has been said, TNE's behavior D1 was confusing and somewhat chaotic. I don't see the benefit to scum if she was killed. Between 2.) and 3.), choosing 2.) does not preclude 3.) from being true as well. What is confirmed is that TNE was JK'd and there was no NK. It could very well be possible that TNE targeted Chrimi...either way Chrimi wouldn't have died.

I'm fine leaving my vote where it is. TNE's posts of "emotions" and her "reactions" are NAI...that's just how she plays.

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Post Post #774  (ISO)  » Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:36 am

In post 759, shannon wrote:I see that you've slipped - Chrimi didn't claim BP until D2, so scum would not have seen her as conf town on D1.
VOTE: Astral Flare


I don't think that was a slip...he said three sentences prior that she was "pretty universally townread."

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