[SETUP] Predict the Flip

[podoboq]

(My preferred option) Increase the number of paths town has to survive to 7,

but place a bias on the randomizer between paths (I suggest that each day, you announce two paths, one with a 70% chance of being the safe path, and one which is safe only the other 30% of the time).

This should have more scumhunting involved than the previous option (because scum will have to decide if they're townread enough to lie about the 30% path being safe, and town will have to decide how many times they're going to ask for a second opinion). I'm not sure where the balance is but it isn't obviously broken. Note that in this version of the setup, a 2:2 or 1:1 endgame should not be an automatic scum win (town should have the chance to guess their way to the end of the setup even if they can't lynch anyone any more).

I remember this post from when Mislead was originally announced in the micro thread, and I like that you accomplished this in a way that was a lot more grokkable and flavorful. We are essentially still choosing paths, but the paths have a 22% vs 78% distribution inherently. Tying the percentages to alignment makes it a LOT more fun to play around with those numbers, and makes the decision a lot more interesting. If a group wanted, they could still strategically split the party in order to play the numbers, but it will never be strictly a coinflip, since a player's chances of being scum aren't strictly speaking 50/50. Also there will always be scumhunting to determine whether or not a path is safe, while in Mislead, at the end it could just be a numbers game with no player interactions taken into consideration. Aside from determining who went down which path, and who relayed information to the town, there was basically no scumhunting in our game. It was over 90% theory (which you handled phenomenally, I should add). This looks different, and it's very exciting.

[podoboq]

Scum have a lot of things to lie about; they're trying to convince the town that town are scum and scum are town, in order to persuade townies to take the wrong path.

I'd like to point out that this is also literally just mafia. Like, that's the whole game.

This version of the game still essentially has lynching in it, but it also has this tree-stumping mechanic which basically just marks a way to denote a player who has "lost" but is still alive, because you don't win the game by surviving. You win the game by being right, which is in some ways more skill-testing. This game is more Mafia than One-Night Werewolf is, and I've played One-Night on the site before.

[podoboq]

I agree that One-Night Ultimate Werewolf is not Mafia. There's no informed minority. (I remember watching a 1NUW game a while back in which one of the scum convinced their buddy that they were actually town, which lead to a town win. If scum had been a little less convincing they might have won!)

...I think that was me

Spoiler: One-Night shenanigans

Note before reading, I am the Minion (I know the one Werewolf but he doesn't know me), and I win as long as he isn't lynched (even if I am).

Okay, I'm gonna bust this wide open/potentially throw the game.

I am/was the WEREWOLF.

Hoping for the latter, otherwise I'm screwed.

Would have come forward earlier but I wanted to be sure between Podo and 3DR who the Minion was. I'm comfortable enough that Podo is the Troublemaker for me to make the claim now, based on the fact that I don't think the Minion would say he swapped me, and overall I just see much stronger town motivation coming from Podo than 3DR. I'm still not 100% sure that this isn't just another gambit from Podo, but I feel like he would have come clean by now since both I and GL have posted since he made his swap claim and he wouldn't have gotten any new info. There's no real strong reason for him to keep bluffing about his swap targets unless he strongly suspects that I'm the werewolf.

I checked card B, which is actually Apprentice Seer, and it's just crazy dumb luck that GL checked A and C and not B. By the time I announced which card I looked at, I already knew GL hadn't seen B and that Villager would have been a safe bluff to announce for the middle card. So yes, there are actually 3 villagers in play.

Provided Podo is telling the truth, then I should no longer be the Werewolf.

Werewolf should now be GuiltyLion

, which makes me the Seer.

If I've just fallen for a massive gambit, then I apologise to my Minion friend for possibly losing us the game here, but I have to play to win and I think my win con has changed.

So basically, the roles after swaps and everything should be:

Werewolf – GuiltyLion
Werewolf – Card A
Minion – PDR
Seer – Alexcellent
Apprentice Seer – Card B
Troublemaker – Podo
Robber – PokerFace
Villager – Lane
Villager – Shos
Villager – Lowell
Insomniac – Fire Starter
Doppleganger – Card C

This is only incorrect if:

1) I'm wrong about Podo and 3DR is actually the Troublemaker, in which case I was never swapped.

2) Podo still hasn't told the truth about who he swapped, in which case, GG, I just lost the game.

3) Lane still could have potentially robbed me. His PokerFace crumb definitely makes it seem like he's town, but I don't think it completely clears him.

Basically, I feel like I have to claim now. I don't see Podo retracting his Alex/GL swap claim, so going into night fall I'd have to basically flip a coin on if I'm still a Werewolf or not. I'm thinking it's more likely that I don't have the Werewolf anymore, so I'm taking a bit of a gamble and choosing to believe Podo.

@Podo, for my peace of mind, please confirm if you were telling the truth or not. I reserve the right to pretend that this post was just a big joke for the lolz in case I'm wrong.

This makes the game a lot simpler all of a sudden. I meant it when I said that Alex and GL were my actual swaps.

So now town only has to decide between the highlighted options I quoted, unless there's something I'm missing.

If I'm lying about Troublemaker, and I'm actually Alex's Minion, town should lynch Alex.
If lane actually robbed Alex, town should lynch lane. I don't think there's anyway for us to discover this information, so I think this option has to be ignored.
If neither, town should lynch GuiltyLion.

VOTE: GuiltyLion
VOTE: nightfall

[podoboq]

So I run a traditional gaming club at my university, and we just started meeting again for the semester. We play werewolf all the time, and only had 11 people last night which is a bit small, so I thought, hey, why not try out this setup?


We had eight townies and two goons.

The first round, they singled out an obvtown, and everyone predicted her town, nobody jokered.
Then they decided to have two people per round joker or predict something that the majority doesn't predict, in case they're wrong. People just jokered.
Town wasted several jokers, and the group kept picking townies to flip
Then we lost half of the town at once when they predicted a scum flip incorrectly.

We're down to four players, and they have six people left to flip. They pick the scum, one of them guesses correctly (thinking he was wrong, but splitting the numbers just in case), and he was left the only living player.
He had four other players left to flip, and basically needed to guess which one of them was scum. He guessed two town correctly, then guessed town on the remaining scum, and lost.

It was super cool. Players were pretty confused about the whole thing for a while, and since they're mostly familiar with role madness, I got a lot of people asking "So how do we find out who the werewolves are?" So my group probably wasn't going to play it the best, but the scum did a good job. It's scum that convinced people to waste their jokers early, and intentionally picked off townies early. Very fun game. Very excited to play it here.