Open 651: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Hebeescum :v

P.S. leaving for quebec in a few hours, should be back friday.

Noted. Have fun in Quebec!

[Raskolnikov]

The good news is I'm back, the bad news is I'm lazy

[Raskolnikov]

God there's so many walls...

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: light_ganski

Don't like the play around kyndny + vedith early (the scumread is okay but the approach was ew) and her reaction to lycan felt too passive and never went anywhere.

202

vedith read is pretty much a low content-> scum read in depth with disliking vedith's buddy post. Thing is she says there's little to read but imo there is significant content there and at that point a lot of things town!light could actually scumread vedith for as opposed to that; the kydney or lycan interaction or just looking into some of the more weird things he said with analysis (as opposed to saying x is a strange post). Feeling this as scumlight knowing that vedith _looked_ scummy but struggling to explain the why and how.

My main problem is how she reacted to lycan's vote but didn't do anything , and in the reads later ends up inexplicably townreading him?

Lycanfire - As I said

could

be opportunistic scum, voting Vedith because he was defensive/jumpy and then jumping onto me in 110 for questionable reasoning, but I think that contradicts the scum read on Vedith and in any case

I think he's more likely over-confident town than scum

. Posted lots of filler, made hardly any content - anti-town but not (I think) a scum tell here.

I don't know how you can reach that conclusion with the other things light said regarding him or how lycan's ISO is.

Kydney read is also ridiculous in that it's a really weak townlean but she defends her at every opportunity. Though with just how far she takes it I think odds are it'd be buddying over s/s from lightscum (lycan maybe?).

The only problem is the vedith claim thing (which is really dumb ftr) as in, the bravery to do 224. Given vedith would likely invest light anyways at that point it could be doubling down for that and wifom but idk. I think as an actual statement it probably DOES make someone less likely to invest but it's just so incredibly bold to do. 232 bad again though so eh.

[Raskolnikov]

@Lycan are you an alt?

[Raskolnikov]

@kydney can you summarise your scumreads in ONE post with no quotes or fluff?

[Raskolnikov]

Wanna see heebee come back too.

With 2 conftown and a few good townreads already I actually have high hopes for this lynch.

[Raskolnikov]

[Raskolnikov]

zzzzzz I came back too late and the games all dead

[Raskolnikov]

Eh that's actually fair given vedith claim I guess. I don't follow your NJAC read though and liking light based on that reroll is actually just objectively wrong... also if you could give thoughts on lycan(after 266) tomorrow that'd be great.

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah heebee's 325 and turn on NJAC is pretty terrible. Only thing is there's less to judge there overall than light but eh. Light's back-and-forth on vedith is actually kind of weird for scum.

I feel like kydney is overusing their circumstances as an excuse to not have scumreads... given busyness stated 357 feels time-wasty if that makes sense? Also even though highhopes did come in that time I don't get focusing entirely there and none on light or heebee.

Highhopes catchup is so-so, there's no problems apparent but it does happen to 100% support the status quo. Shaddowez scumread is pretty wifom after already being mentioned and the rest is too basic to read into much. Need something more in depth.

[Raskolnikov]

@light reads?

[Raskolnikov]

Highhopes catchup is so-so, there's no problems apparent but it does happen to 100% support the status quo. Shaddowez scumread is pretty wifom after already being mentioned and the rest is too basic to read into much. Need something more in depth.

will you be doing a catch up of your own or are you happy where you are chasing light?

How do you feel about the light wagon?

WRT catchup; I've made a case and went into my scumreads. I guess you're casting shade on me for not doing an "official" catchup beyond that but like ehh?

[Raskolnikov]

Light's wagon is surprisingly light, he's made some really stupid posts with one particular standing out (which I already highlighted) but I am going to have to be unpopular and say he's town and I will oppose any move to lynch him today.

But why though?

[Raskolnikov]

Actually SB who are you scumreading now? Given the sora unvote.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Heebee

Light's return is actually alright. Not doing NJAC, would prefer not sora either but eh.

[Raskolnikov]

Light's wagon is surprisingly light, he's made some really stupid posts with one particular standing out (which I already highlighted) but I am going to have to be unpopular and say he's town and I will oppose any move to lynch him today.

But why though?

Still want this answered though.

[Raskolnikov]

@Bowl NJAC's very unlikely to happen given most people not on are opposed. Can you do hebee with me?

[Raskolnikov]

@Sora what do you make of lycan after the big post?

[Raskolnikov]

Is a heebee lynch actually gonna be impossible?

[Raskolnikov]

Okay. I assume no one actually read his ISO when I pointed him out! It feels kind of over-the-top having to case obvscum like this but I guess scum are straight up ignoring and everyone else is just mysteriously blind or to into their 1v1s... Last chance to get this going it looks like.

Town
NJAC
kyndy101

Unreadable
SoraAdvent
superbowl9
Vedith

Null
light_ganski
Raskolnikov
HighHopes
kraska77

Scum
Lycanfire

Pretty much lycan scumread, NJAC and kydney town and rest unreadable. Dunno how you can be undecided on all 3 of those at that point of the game given they were the most involved but whatever, can't read too much into a list of names.

Lycanfyre is scum because he is RVSing really late into the game. I know that this game is unreadable (at least for me) but there is at least something he could have done that wasn't trolly/do nothing. There is a difference between not being in the thread like a majority of these players and posting and reading the thread but not actually solving the game.

[snip]

VOTE: Lycan

This is actually okay, but he never goes back to follow up on it. Voteswitchs and that's it.

Spoiler:

@Vedith: mind responding to my post here, please?

I assume you mean these parts -

1) Regarding the first point: I think you're completely misunderstanding what I'm saying at all. Why would I bother asking about meta not once, but so many times, if I already knew how you played? It'd be a useless waste of time.

- Because you fucked up

2) My statement on the types of post you make are based on your past behaviour. I posted this in 156 as well, which I think sums up my thoughts about how you've posted, and is what I'm referring to when I refer to your posts as such.

- Why would how I am posting all game give me justification for certain posts?

3) I presume that for your third and fourth point you're asking me about me about this post I made here.

- I don't know what my 3rd or 4th point was as I didn't actually do it in points, I made a post.

4) For your next point, I posted my reads before High Hopes did and have modified them only very slightly.

- I didn't say you posted them after, I said they mirror up.

5) How do I defend your vote on Kyndy in any way? I said that you're arguing against me on kyndy back in 156, and that's good.

OK, the vote on you was an RVS vote. He may have forgotten he voted you at this point, though I'm not too sure about that considering he's aware of the votecount. Don't want to discuss his reasoning as imo it's irrelevant to the discussion.

You justify why my vote is there and even call the issue irrelevant.
With your response, it confirms that you saw my vote as an issue and felt it was a scummy action to keep it on Kyndy.

Was there anything else you wanted me to go over on your post?

1) If I knew your meta, you'd see me use it in my case against if you if and when I could - I've stated multiple times that I haven't read it before, hence my need to ask around. I don't get why you think that my posts imply a knowledge of your meta by any means, but that's a semantic issue that I've already explained (and that superbowl has explained far better than I can). When I mention that you 'always act like this', I mean that your actions are consistent with your past behaviour within the game.

2) Because then your actions can be explained as less scummy, as instead they're part of your personality, if you understand what I mean. For example, while I may initially read some of your posts as scummish (relatively short bursts of posting, very reactionary style), upon looking at your past behaviour they can become less so. This is also part of the reason why when I have more time I intend to read up on your meta: if I can determine that you play like this even in your town games, it helps me form a better read of you instead of relying on my own tells (which may or may not be outdated/flat-out wrong)

3) What I meant was the third and fourth lines in post 222, starting from 'This could be' to 'Vedith being Vedith'.

4) You mention that I'm scum in the post, then mentioned that my posts are similar to HighHopes. Since you're placing me under suspicion by calling me scum, I assumed that the reason you said we have similar reads was because I was sheeping him, and that to you is a scumtell. I stated what I did based on this, because I posted my reads before HighHopes had posted and modified them slightly.

Therefore;
If you mentioned that HH and my reads are similar because I copied him, that's not true because I posted first.
If you mentioned that HH and my reads are similar for another reason, why did you do that?

5) I mentioned you were aware of the votecount at the very end. While I say it's an RVS vote and that you may have forgotten about it,

I also mention that you're aware of the votecount

, and thus you have no excuse for not being aware that your vote is on kyndy. To be fair, I did hedge my arguments, and you can criticize me for that.

I think you're misunderstanding what I meant by reasoning. By reasoning, I don't mean the reasoning for. If you take a look at post 97, you mention "As scum, why would she want to give town less options to focus on, and more of a chance to focus her?". I didn't want to discuss this as I thought it wasn't the main point of kyndy's argument, which was that your vote was still on her while you were arguing against it.

All in all though I definitely think we're spinning wheels and I'm leaning town-ish on you right now so I'm not going to pursue this any further. Hopefully I can get the NJAC post up sooner or later, but it's probably gonna be tomorrow at earliest.

Why focus this hard on meta at all in this game? It seems like you're just letting yourself be open to more attacks that way.

Honestly I think you're likely town here and they're likely scum. You are pummeling yourself by giving this weak argument water with some crap meta reason. Meta's can change, and you admit you would find it scummy but "meta".

This does not strike me as TvT at all at the moment.

Basically townreading sora for using caveats and meta to have a weak argument, probably the most analysis of the game from him and it's a weird approach townreading on scumtells. Terrible thing is though how he calls vedith scum and says "this probably isn't TvT" but says absolutely nothing there (nor later).

VOTE: Vedith

Till I catch up a bit more, consider me tunnelling here.

Not caught up but responding to recent posts and judging the interaction as not TvT?

Spoiler:

UNVOTE: Vedith. I'm going to have to swallow my pride and admit that I was completely and totally off on everything in this game so far. My focus over the next couple of days is to just go back and reread the game and focus on the Vedith/NJAC interaction in some detail. At this point I'm not even sure of any of my reads anymore. Before this, I'd like to address a few of the points made against me.

~~~~

Re: Vedith

I want to know your meta before this.

As for why I said it was Vedith being Vedith, I think 95's a perfect example of the type of posts you make.

Scum found.
You want to know my meta, but you imply that you know it already from the type of posts I make.
This could be Vedith not being Vedith, but you have already decided that this is Vedith being Vedith while asking for meta on me.
And you can't say that this is wrong, because you are responding to a comment about me with saying that it's my usual play, just to ignore it (TYhis is what I get from, Vedith being Vedith).

Your reads are basically mirror with High Hopes (Who I haven't decided yet if I think scum or not)

Why did I keep my vote on Kyndy? I wanted to see what scum would use this to their advantage. In 156 he defends me voting Kyndy, in 220 he uses it for an excuse to push me as scum, but in a subtle way.

1) Regarding the first point: I think you're completely misunderstanding what I'm saying at all. Why would I bother asking about meta not once, but so many times, if I already knew how you played? It'd be a useless waste of time.

2) My statement on the types of post you make are based on your past behaviour. I posted this in 156 as well, which I think sums up my thoughts about how you've posted, and is what I'm referring to when I refer to your posts as such.

To sum, his posts are non-comittal and reactionary, which to me are quite clear scumtells.

3) I presume that for your third and fourth point you're asking me about me about this post I made here.

4) For your next point, I posted my reads before High Hopes did and have modified them only very slightly.

5) How do I defend your vote on Kyndy in any way? I said that you're arguing against me on kyndy back in 156, and that's good.

After he goes off on how I'm wrong on kyndy (which is fair enough, argument is always good),

Back here, my vote was on kyndy and yours was on her as well. I don't defend you voting kyndy at all, and even say this in the same post.

His vote on you is not due to legit suspicion, he really hasn't formed a case on anyone yet

. But you're already getting defensive based on an

RVS vote.

I get that you may not have noticed it was an RVS vote, but it really is a little bit too defensive for my liking.

I guess you could interpret this as being supportive of your vote, but my intent was to say your vote was an RVS one and not based in fact, and Kyndy's overreaction to that RVS vote is a little worrying. I don't think I flip on it at all in my later post (220): I mention your vote is an RVS vote twice, and in both cases say that your vote is weak.

~~~~

Re: Sir Bastion

1) Yeah, apologies for my formatting issues. I can't find any way to make it easier to read, apologies. As for posting my train of thought, I have a serious problem with not being able to control what I actually say and get across.

2) I don't think I'm sitting on the kyndy wagon at all. I've been pushing for Vedith over the last couple of posts I've made, with NJAC as a close second. I'm keeping an eye on kyndy without being too commital as I'm watching for how her actions develop over the course of the next few posts. I'm unsure on her recent posts, and I don't want to force a read that I'm not sure on, and even more so now considering what happened when I believed Vedith was right.

3) I think reads are useful as a starting point and can be very helpful in kickstarting the game past RVS mode. I felt the game was already moving past RVS, but needed a little bit of a push to move things along. Knowing what reads people have is actually immensely helpful to see who they're potentially buddying with (in terms of who they're being soft on), but the act of providing reads in themselves can be analysed. From things like what tells they pick up on, to their structure you can really tell a lot about who a person is based on reads. Also they provide a really good discussion over whether a person deserves a town/scum read, and probably most importantly they force you to take a look at the game overall.

~~~~

As of right now doing some initial reading I'd say my initial read on NJAC was definitely wrong, but as I mentioned I'll get back to that later.

This is raising all sorts of red flags for me, smells of scum distancing.

Dismissing both of them as scum on distancing when sora unvotes because of the claim, doesn't bother going into the red flags. Thing is at this hebee either didn't read to the level to see the claim (and is scumreading vedith without having read his posts) or read them and thought this anyway. How he says it implies it's a deep multifaceted judgement too with multiple points which is really hard to believe given the other things. There's no conceivable way heebee is town and could have this conclusion here but only KTS saw this I guess.

[after sora post on vedith]
UNVOTE: VedithFair point, I still like a vedith vote, but if we do this we should do this the right way.

VOTE: NJAC

Nonchalant 180 and moonwalk away from all of it altogether... 0 reason to believe any of those were ever actual reads. Technically can't judge him never pushing any of them in the first place because of the 0 activity I guess (but cmon) but this turn-off reads pure apathetic on top of it.

I know. I'm just adding it to try to gain supporters. I just want to move light's wagon and see what happens.

*spit*

if you cant see why that was stupid I may need to revisit my read of you.

The NJAC train is still arollin'.

Alternatively Sora or Lycan are good lynches.

and this posted after I started this lol
Near the end of the day, fine with every lynch on top of all the above. Complete scum apathy. This is actually absurd now and almost too-scummy-to-be-scum if that was a thing.

Very weak association with lycan (for unvote) but seems to be treating everyone with pretty consistent and equal noncaring. Leaning traitor on this tbh given the attitude and lurkyness; would explain scum not hopping on either if assuming highhopes is town (no one hopping one is probably the one point to hebee's favour atm).
If at the end of this he's still not even a lynch POSSIBILITY I don't even know. ONLY thing that could make you uncomfortable is the somewhat low-content but postbypost this is unredeemable.

[Raskolnikov]

Is a heebee lynch actually gonna be impossible?

I don't think so; no. Heebee is actually pretty townie compared to the other wagons imo

Could also lynch kydney. WTF, how could even be an opinion.

[Raskolnikov]

Realistically speaking there probably (but not necessarily) is scum in light or sora but I'd feel 100% more confident with hebee than on a mixed. Even if you don't see the obvscum and read him as similar to your scumread: think of the downside of whatever you're lynching flipping town vs this.

I'd hammer light if it came down to it because of her earlier play but eh.

[Raskolnikov]

Also sir bastion why the fuck not explain your super secret strong-townread on someone coming to l-2. Waiting for l-1 to get a claim out of them first? Either that or you're dumb I guess; if you have really good reason you should out it now. Technically people can wait until intent but very often nowadays people don't.

What tilts me is how whenever people tease things (secret read reasoning) like this in mafia it always comes out later incredibly mediocre for all the building up and hyping given

[Raskolnikov]

PSA voting who you do want to be lynched when your townread is being run up is probably an idea.

[Raskolnikov]

To be honest NJAC encouraging another vote to get bastion townread out could TECHNICALLY be really clever scum wanting a claim in the same way but that's (wanting SB to explain) at least a really good reasoning for his action and overall NJAC's probably town. Not ridiculous like what mr bastion's doing here.

[Raskolnikov]

@mod can we get a VC?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: highhopes
QH is bad though not even necessarily AI for KTS (it's pretty terrible if you can say that about someone...).
It's the hardcore scumreading hebee to then quickhammering the wagon that hebee hopped on that way that's ridiculous though. I don't buy you think someone is obvscum then just casually hammer with them no problem, along with it having been a jump off of hebee too which he didn't really push at all when it looked viable there's no way it was an actual scumread.
I believe vedith vote is something he'll put off as just a prank or whatever... I hate people hiding behind trolling, its obnoxious in a defensive way because you can revoke everything and don't commit to anything

[Raskolnikov]

(quickhammer)

Oh wow that actually makes sense for the vote. Vedith scum though doesn't make sense with hebee (traitor likelihood waning) and the claim is still kind of absurd from scum. I wouldn't put it past vedith to fakeclaim it as vt even though.
One of HH/vedith has to be lying though if they both claim pr like this I think, even if it's vt vs pr. Regardless of between the two (need role confirmation again) and HH's still looking bad from yesterday, hebee's probably safest bet for scum as an individual though.
VOTE: hebee

@vedith are you actually goon cop?

[Raskolnikov]

Safe to say this is probably the most chaotic day 2 start I've ever seen

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: vedith

Omg. I wrote vedith off entirely because of that claim!
Traitor is actually genius
a) traitor can assume high chance mafia didn't pick anything (therefore, 2 goon)
b) of the 2 PRs, one is already innocent child, so goon cop chance is small
c) even if goon cop CC's, goon cop is threatening against dual goon team and is probably worth trading for traitor. Kill goon cop and only IC is left.
d) even if there's vig, traitor is BP so takes up a lynch.
and if it works (no-cc) traitor can solo win on the towncred regardless of what happens to scumteam.

Ranger when I first saw you, you completely blew my mind solving the game in hope plus one. It influenced my ins to even play with you but to be honest (I guess from busy IRL) from what I watched and seen you just never had that same impact. I didn't think you'd blow my mind again like this. Jesus christ

[Raskolnikov]

Traitor fits with hebee even.

My only question is why you guys quickhammed NJAC and didn't push hebee when it was perfectly viable yesterday?

[Raskolnikov]

The KTS Ranger surprise switcharoo
There is literally not a stronger contrast between 2 players in mafiascum.

[Raskolnikov]

That's not how it is. Shut up.

[Raskolnikov]

RIP
So you actually were cop and just misread no result as not goon?

[Raskolnikov]

TBH you don't really have any right calling everyone out like you did if you're town considering your mistake. No offence but you put most of your energy into like antagonising and guilt tripping today, and even if it was going to be impossible saving yourself you could've at least tried or even just posted all this without selfhammering.

Assuming you're town this is really rough now tbh. Hebee's easy but nailing the rest perfectly is a tall order and would probably take a nice roleblock from ranger tonight.
Bowl and kyndy (your too-scummy-to-be-scum read doesn't make sense) with hebee is the obvious one with how they played around both wagons tho it's also probably too easy. Between lycan SB and sora's slot I'd actually lean lycan as the only scum off the NJAC wagon though idk.

[Raskolnikov]

If you have time can you go into lycan and kyndy though?
I'm not gonna trust your meta read at face value here (when you can't read me either) and too-scummy-to-be-scum doesn't actually work.

[Raskolnikov]

You had the time to write all of this but not take a night action?

Conversely; scum also know if there is no 5th pr. This is a 100% safe claim and actions don't back it up.

Also noteworthy your scumreads are hebee/iron/bowl but most of your effort goes towards iron and bowl. Which lynch do you actually prefer?

[Raskolnikov]

On one hand your points on ironstove are actually good but on the other hebee/kyndys association is incredible and you have kyndy as a townread for pretty much being bad.
Iron at least if he's scum would be bussing both partners with his play.

I guess I could see bowl if you are town but his early d1 was still so strong. Of everyone on NJAC his vote is fairly believable.

[Raskolnikov]

@Lycan

It's late and I have school tomorrow so I'll leave this here and see where I sit after thinking it over more tomorrow.

But of the two (light, Sora), I think Light is scummier.
NJAC is also scummy, but I think he might be town so I'm placing him as null rn

So, as for light, he's had a general lack of contribution this whole game which I don't like, and a majority of the content he provides doesn't sound like effort was put in. I like his more recent posts, but I think that those are mostly in response to the growing wagon on him. So, more of stress posting than actual posting.
In short, I guess I'll hop on that wagon for now.
VOTE: Light

All three of these wagons are good. Absurd NJAC read.

Is a heebee lynch actually gonna be impossible?

I don't think so; no. Heebee is actually pretty townie compared to the other wagons imo

I asked about this but she didn't answer. Even if you're looking at this game from the shallowest point of view possible I don't know how you come to this conclusion.

I know. I'm just adding it to try to gain supporters. I just want to move light's wagon and see what happens.

This is what happens. I'm tracker. Cue more "opportunist" bullshit from Vedith. Didn't wanna have both investigatives outed today but heh. Claiming now so I don't come online and find myself quickhammered like in my last game.

Oh

UNVOTE: Light

Why haven't you added more in the game, if this is true? I don't like how fluffy and non-serious your posts are

And now it's time to sheep Rask.

VOTE: Hebee

More people should sheep, BTW.

Why? I honestly find sheeping scummy, so I'll just vote you, my other scumread
VOTE: NJAC

Oh my goodness gracious.

Even without association everything's surface level plus the fluff she kept coming in with when actual things were happening.
I don't know how vedith managed to townread this either but he didn't have time to answer me before thread lock. But please don't tell me you could think iron is over this as a heb partner.

[Raskolnikov]

The claim IS so bad its almost believable.

1) lycan is scum
In this case it is probably a mylo ploy to win today... If lycans scum then pushing either iron or bowl (who with lycan scum would prob be town) over hebee is doable with everyones reads and the claim removes lycan himself from lynchpool. Worst case scenario can just bus and claim you shot BP/traitor. Still, can lynch hebee and ignore the iron discussion. Just important not to treat this conftown unless proven.

2) lycan is town
The game's actually in a good position... lycan can confirm as vig via shot or if bg at least protect shaddow, likely scum target lycan as a stronger PR anyways. Even missing the shot just puts it in another lylo over mylo.

To his credit no shot n1 actually is fair, with light as his strongest scumread who just claimed tracker I can buy holding it (or possibly he shot light anyways with scum).

[Raskolnikov]

Wait, is JOAT strongman just a modifier or does it allow mafia 2 kills in one night?

[Raskolnikov]

Ugh I wasn't even thinking of that... I was thinking of scum joat fakeclaiming vig.
But in the case idk why he wouldn't have just shot last night and gotten shaddow plus had a more sound claim.

[Raskolnikov]

Regardless of anything no-lynch is bad because we'd either lose shaddow if lycan is scum or vig, or lose lycan if hes bg...
There's no situation where it really narrows the lynchpool.

[Raskolnikov]

Doing this tomorrow.

[Raskolnikov]

Alright. I've thought this over for a while but more or less end up with the same conclusion.

Lycan is a huge question mark that can't really be resolved at this point;

in pretty much every situation though it's strictly more optimal leaving him alive

, and with it being MYLO over lylo there isn't that risk of double shot (if joat) or vig shot ending the game despite a scum lynch. See my earlier post here. For certain reasons EVEN lycan scum still alive would put mafia in a detrimental position to maintain the plausibility. The thing is, before today (and it still applies) the best team in terms of associations is straight up hebee/kyndy/lycan. What kind of muddled this for me today is on revisit his ISO is actually not bad; the recent posts I can kind of follow and is so much better than his d1 and the whole claim. It's just that the manner of claim itself is so bizarre from him as scum with the fact that if he were scum JOAT (which would be the closest to making it a "provable" claim) he could pretty much just have pushed no lynch without claiming and possibly auto won I think. Assuming optimal play from others has backfired for me before (everyone makes mistakes) but outside of that, to fakeclaim saying you flaked both nights is so ridiculously ballsy from scum idk. The main thing that does hurts it though is him having posted elsewhere as iron said, still it's too much of a risk not at least giving a night to see.

Looking back to day 1, hebee's turn on njac and willingness to lynch anything is still obvscum. Normally I would want more to judge overall considering this is do-or-die at this pointnow, but now even POE comes in along with almost every association suggesting it. Kyndy's associations with the others aren't nearly as good (iow I don't see many other options for her partners) and individually iron's put in probably the most work into trying to figure this day out (as well as kind of townslipping)... Depending on what happens with lycan bastion's TECHNICALLY plausible but the d2 play around vedith/highhopes was absurdly town. Genji really hasn't changed anything on my judgement here with his asking about PRs and promising a catchup (although for what it's worth I think scum is more likely to flounder seeing they replaced into this slot).

The alternative to everything above {hebee/kyndy/lycan|bastion??} WOULD be something with superbowl and would actually mean lycan is the one mostly right on him and kyndy with his reads this game.
Why it isn't great is that of all the people on NJAC wagon bowl's position is actually plausible, it's mainly bowl's d2 positioning (saying something to the effect that he'd gladly lynch either and also that one flipping town scumfirms the other) and the no lynch suggestion today... Problem is I do agree ruling out bowl/kyndy on their association and tbh the only option for third then is I think bastion (otherwise literally both bowl + lycan are bussing BOTH partners with their positions which is almost absurd). 688 kind of supports this at the end with the soft townread on bastion being put with the one on me for the townslip with the sly question afterwards. The thing is overall lycan/bowl interaction is just too hardcore for distancing, and bowl coming at the reasonable end conclusion of not wanting to lynch him I really like, and overall kyndy's ISO (as the alternative) is just obvscum and feels way more likely.

Overall lynching the hebee slot is the safest bet in my mind, with follow up on partners and the lycan slot which should be significantly easier tomorrow with the pool narrowed... even if for some reason I die I think shaddow and iron would be capable of following through there. Ideally we don't actually decide between superbowl/kyndy today considering the neg association but if I had to I'd prefer kyndy. Failing everything else bowl would still be better than anything outside of these 3 imho but I'd rather not take the chance on either of them over hebee(genji). Literally the only thing outside of genji possible would be like superbowl/bastion/??? with extreme distancing by lycan, kyndy or iron with superbowl or a complete failure in my understanding of this game. A lot of side noise appearing now and people shifting him to their second or third preferred lynches after earlier game makes me very confident that's not true.

tl;dr {genji/kyndy/lycan | genji/kyndy/bastion} > { genji/kyndy/superbowl} >>>>> anything without genji(hebee slot)

VOTE: genji

[Raskolnikov]

@ironstove pretty sure you're town here but completely disagree with you townreading the slot. I think you should recognise the problem in scumreading kyndy and bowl simultaneously and see no scumteam outside of him really works.

[Raskolnikov]

WTF

[Raskolnikov]

Rask, can you please build a quick case on heebee's posts and why he's scum? I did two ISOs prior to heebee and I'm not really seeing anything particularly scummy, he still seems like lazy bad-town who voted without reading the thread which was further validated by him going AFK and replaced.

I'm not convinced he's scum and I don't think doing another ISO on him is going to change that without someone else's POV.

Genji's scum because a team without him is either literally impossible or has done crazy distancing. I've went over the old slot a bit before so you can check that. The slot itself is worse now because they're almost the assumed lynch but they're not really pushing anything, I'm not really seeing the desperation that would be appropriate for their position. I'm thinking of why someone replaces into this situation in mylo to do nothing and I think it's way more likely from scum who'll get bussed and still has a wincon after death; the urgency of that situation versus being town and getting voted in mylo is pretty night and day.

Interesting thing is why he gives bowl that consideration and doesn't want to vote there after scumreading him. I guess if it was genji/bowl bussing each other this would be like a subversion of that but I still think bowl's more likely town, especially while genji/kyndy exists as a thing. Kyndy voting bowl doesn't really change the either-or team dynamic there assuming you ARE town.

[Raskolnikov]

@ironstove pretty sure you're town here but completely disagree with you townreading the slot.

I think you should recognise the problem in scumreading kyndy and bowl simultaneously

and see no scumteam outside of him really works.

I think with daychat available for mafia, they can run plays like this. Do you disagree that with a day-chat mafia could not plan to make a play like this to throw town off completely? That's the power I think day-chat provides IMO.

I'm going to do another re-read and reassess if I made a mistake.

I can see this point for others but I try to judge what is realistic from people. I don't think bowl or kyndy would distance this convincingly without it looking pretty fake.
As for lycan, (if I wasn't townreading you) you, and sort of bastion I'd be way more reserved making these conclusions... in general I think optimal play is to nail the weakest scum because they'll pretty much guide the way to the rest.

[Raskolnikov]

@ironstove pretty sure you're town here

Why

I just get the feeling he was actually trying to figure things out since his replace and tbh he seems to be the only one really invested in this game. I was pretty null on sora but the way iron acted when he first got in and his approach to the setup I really like.

Tbh turn on genji today is a little ehh, although at this point even if he was scum it should be with that as partner anyways as IDK why else he would have particularly cared about the slot that much in the first place today (earlier). But at this point he's my only confident townread left so...

[Raskolnikov]

@iron I don't completely rule out superbowl but he's way better than kyndy.

I want you to seriously suggest a team without genji in it.

[Raskolnikov]

A superbowl team without genji would mean that genji AND kyndy are both town which would like leave me disappointed in the human race as a whole...

[Raskolnikov]

superbowl I love your name btw I can't resist saying aloud when I read it

[Raskolnikov]

Main point of bastions is just that scum must be within each pool, though the conclusions from that aren't anything not already what I've narrowed down in associations though. Genji with kyndy, or genji with bowl or something really wacky. Bastion had a convoluted way of saying this pretty simple theory though and doesn't really push what HIS stance on who the scum is but okay I guess.

The latter points where he assumes lycan town and champions himself is pretty bullshit though, even if we could trust his align, assuming that also for lycan is really careless with the claim circumstances. Trying to ask us to only consider those within the 5 as the scumteam can be scum motivated but if he believes what he's saying it's just as valid, though I still wouldn't agree wrt lycan.

Though I've also noticed a tendency in games for scum to believe claims more readily (or go the extreme other way and never believe it) because they know it themselves to be true. I'm kind of sad because I was townreading him really strong off that day 2 play but I guess if lycan is PR it makes sense?

[Raskolnikov]

I'll be pretty sad if iron gets replaced because of that fight... from my general experience around here it's pretty likely though

[Raskolnikov]

Idk I feel like despite all that analysis he's still like not that involved if that makes sense.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm getting pretty tired of this dragging on at this point tbh, if we could lynch genji already that'd be great. We wouldn't even be in this situation if he was the d1 lynch (remember how fast njac died when hebee was looking viable?).

Unless anyone has any other major points to bring up?

I know not everyone can just trust my game sense and perspective but please. I feel like if this gamestate goes on much longer we get more flaking and replacements and an apathy spiral.

[Raskolnikov]

prodge. vote genji

catching up tomorrow, skim showed no major reason why hes town though. lycan claim actually sounds fine

[Raskolnikov]

mmm

[Raskolnikov]

so ironstove's hard 180 upon right before leaving is kind of awkward.
In general I was his only townread and he used that opportunity to back on it. Flip flop on genji too but explicitly leaving an out available before and after turn (he COULD flip scum is a bad lynch).
Logic of "any town would happy I'm gone" to reverse on me doesn't make that much sense while not applying it in the other direction and judging bastion or bowls responses. Thing is, from a pure personality point of view it would even make sense but it was his questions and the game impact I had liked not so much him as a person. Overall he leaves casting doubt on people on the way out and acts pretty sure of himself for someone with his reads... which he expressed as pretty much everywhere. I don't want to think I was wrong here but its just a bit soured and n_m replacing in and leaving a vote instantly doesn't help it. Regardless of it being on scum; what is the town thought process to come in and casually vote like that in MYLO (scum can vote frivolously though as there is no risk to them). Then again for what little it's worth it actually looks par for the course for N_M of what I've seen...

Genji's response to N_M however is kind of assuming N_M is town though... considering he comes in and casually votes genji the response to think it's benign/carelessness instead of anything malicious (particularly from that POV) is pretty ridiculous. As is the point on kyndy without voting or even really scumreading her and in general not pushing anything beyond the force of gentle breeze... until the return vote on lycan. The treatment of N_M as town is actually good for the N_M slot though and because of how subtle it this there's no chance it was intentional.

As for lycan, bodyguard claim is actually good, d1 action sounds fair given light was sketchy at that point. Although, since I was wrong about JOAT double shot, I guess vig claim was never a possibility for scum to fakeclaim in the first place (and so it would only have ever been BG). But in that case I don't see the scum incentive of doing the vague claim in the first place; and it would be REALLY creative to do that entirely because it would be a town thing to do, when you already know what you'd claim in the end.

Kind of interesting to think how scum would play around the vague claim; with a JOAT, no lynch + strongman-kill shaddow is 100% a lynch on lycanfire and a game win, whereas vig would be entirely different. The theory is scum would want to push here and insist on getting the claim so they COULD be able to decide that and figure out the course of action for them. But the only obvious effort was iron (773-775), and technically kyndy though she mostly just casted doubt through it. OTOH I think scum would probably assume BG anyways without vig shot d1, the actual vig/bg judgement I think wasn't everyone's minds as much while lycan himself was more of a questionmark... Another thing is if scum chose rolecop over JOAT it's possible (33%?) they'd have checked lycan anyways which would explain apathy towards. Counterclaim thing I don't really get though.

Assuming lycan is town is tbh a throw off from my original theory though it does make a non-genji team even more ridiculous. I still think N_M slot is town, and the only actual combination without lycan and N_M would be bowl, kyndy, and bastion. And kyndy/bastion is actually decent but the latter two with bowl not really. Kyndy tries to cast doubt on bowl and bowl/bastion mutually townread and are friendly; ironically not bad actually. Compare to bastion/genji where bastion pretty much ignores genji the entire time with 0 reaction or comment pretty much ever. Bastions d2 playing around the claim I read as essentially a town-slip but I realise now that judgement from me is faulty as its still possible from scum... actually maybe moreso as he would have known the aligns and could try to think of how it could be a mistake VS straight up scumreading which was the reaction for everyone else. But that lack of anything to say even up to recently is kind of damning...

Now it's been almost 24h since L-2 and at this point it's pretty much a guarantee scum would've quickhammered if genji WAS town so that's not really a concern anymore, but the associations work is all still valid.
I'm 90% sure I live to tomorrow anyways with shaddow and how I read lycan claim, but on the off chance (either lycan scum bussing OR scum kill outside PRs to try to frame lycan town) I die I'm fairly confident it's kyndy and bastion as the partners. Shaddow has pretty good judgement anyways and he's guaranteed here if I'm not so.

tl;dr {genji/kyndy/bastion} by far the best bet with associations, a few questionmarks on N_M, though if I die and you're reading this tomorrow your priority should actually be to try to figure out why 2 PRs are alive instead of me lol (but don't rule out WIFOM).

[Raskolnikov]

now at this point, if you'd please bus that'd be appreciated.

[Raskolnikov]

kyndy if you don't vote next time you enter the thread it's essentially claiming scum, btw

[Raskolnikov]

90% of your previous posts have been around this time and a bit later so avoiding now isn't going to be believed FTR

[Raskolnikov]

uhm.

[Raskolnikov]

UNVOTE:

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: kyndy

[Raskolnikov]

welp.

[Raskolnikov]

at least i can get

[Raskolnikov]

the

[Raskolnikov]

PAGETOP

[Raskolnikov]

to be fair day 2 was extremely unlucky and got what should've been 2 confirmed towns dead, and not from any of good play of contribution of scum whatsoever

[Raskolnikov]

to be fair most of town was pushing for no-lynch actually
i kind of strongly insisted on this

[Raskolnikov]

by the end i was losing my patience and was just about ready to hard bus

but i hate dragging games out

[Raskolnikov]

So on one hand the setup is by default scumsided (take 0 abilities = ridiculously scumsided, look at that traitor's power with BP and can kill if mafia are dead)
but with 3 options taken and a resulting 5 town PRs like here I'd consider it back to townsided, and something that would break/instawin just from massclaiming, there isn't really anything scum could fakeclaim.

Now in this particular game shaddow rolling IC instead of vig was unfortunate (vig > IC considering its a 12p)
tracker being made to claim d1 and dying n1 was rough as well and vedith claiming goon cop didnt help towns favour
the day 2 losing 2 PRs is REALLY unfortunate, as was lycan not bodyguarding ranger n2. I don't blame vedith for not expecting a RB as a PR claim, its an honest mistake.

Yeah overall sure you could criticise the play in the mylo here but it wasn't really a good position to begin with given how disastrous day 1 and 2 went. 3 PRs dead in 2 days when it should have been minimum 1 maximum 2.

I think even with no-lynch (lycan dying) town still wouldn't have won 3 consecutive LYLOs. Yeah there would have been bussing necessary but in the end winning 3 lylos in a row would still be really hard to accomplish.

[Raskolnikov]

Except everything everyone predicted was wrong

EVERYTHING

well actually most town got either 1 scumread right or 2 right they just didnt happen to lynch in the right order

[Raskolnikov]

in an ideal world bastion I'd quickhammer with you
but if I wasnt on the wagon I don't think it would have went anywhere

and if i said i preferred no-lynch it probably would've went through instead of a lynch today i think

[Raskolnikov]

pushing that was actually really sub-optimal because it risked my reputation, confirmed scum within {genji, bowl, me}, and was bad for associations with other scum

ideal play would have just been bussing or doing no-lynch... but if theres a lazy option that ends the game weeks earlier its just too tempting

[Raskolnikov]

I think if ranger was alive I would have HAD to bus or no lynch because she probably doesnt let me get away with this lazy push

also ironstove and genji were starting to get wise to what was going on

[Raskolnikov]

yeah except they were all convinced of a JOAT and scum day chat and despite constantly being pointed out as scummy, neither me or kyndy ever ended up as first choice.

well to be fair they expected OPTIMAL play. BP instead of JOAT or daytalk is just straight up bad LOL

There was a heavy dose of hunting scum via their potential partners which is the worse way to scumhunt period. You should never scumhunt that way. So even if they put 1 of us down as a scumread they always put us with a town player and insisted on lynching that town player first...

funny enough i dont think this would have been the focus that much if i didnt keep spouting it constantly
literally started day 1 and never stopped and i think it caught on to people who in the beginning were just scumhunting regularly
if someone called it out id have been forced to play more properly but until then fuck it

I am actually amazed that you got that ball going with almost no comment from town, I have a book's worth of deleted posts I wrote up calling out the issues I had but opted not to when I saw town were buying it without comment.

You're hebee case was hilarious

it straight up wasnt a case
it was essentially hey i want this guy lynched i will force a 1v1 (i didnt say 1v1 but thats more or less what "I refuse to lynch anywhere else but this" means anyways)
the 'logic' i used was like hey im town so this guy cant be via POE which doesnt make any sense for other people who dont know im town
and in 1v1 of townread vs lurkerish slot people were just like ehh whatever i guess we lynch the nullish because he looks a bit worse

[Raskolnikov]

yeah at some points you were calling me out on very legitimate things. I was thinking like motherfucker this isnt necessary. i have a good thing going on here dont ruin it and make me put more effort in I swear to god ill drop everything to 1v1 bus and lynch you if you keep this discrediting up

[Raskolnikov]

Oh I never got to tell you

guess who high hopes blocked night 2?

Me!

Its a good thing we talked out who to send to do the kill.


Speaking of which, the mod will want our permission to open the scum chat to the game at the end.

are you in favour or prefer to keep it private?

lol the logic actually checked out
"I know ranger will try to roleblock the towniest looking scum. also she knows WE WOULDN'T EXPECT a bastion block"
"we must send the kyndy to do this kill"

oh yeah release scum pt sure

[Raskolnikov]

Wp Mafia. Other than the "picking powers" thing anyway.

I agree with you there. I had no way in the picks and my initial role was traitor, I was REALLY excited to play that given how powerful it is and how interesting the dynamics of the role are.

[Raskolnikov]

When I was recruited and first thing I saw was the other choices of BP and rolecop (for 5 PRs)
was not amused

[Raskolnikov]

I think in general the setup is too scumsided when scum don't pick anything
but probably townsided if scum pick all 3 abilities and town get 5 PRs (for gamebreaking massclaim).

2 PRs minimum and 5 PRs max seems too much of a spread, too feast or famine. maybe add another PR to make the minimum 3 but rebalance scum picks a bit to make them worth it? (BP for example is garbage and should never be taken)
Not really sure though.

[Raskolnikov]

TY so much for modding lilith
I liked the flip flavours as well, though I didnt want to say it as scum

[Raskolnikov]

Our alternative block was Raskolnikov.

FUCKING KNEW IT.

Between bastion and me that sending kyndy for the kill would've been so crucial if lycan saved highhopes

[Raskolnikov]

actually im dumb that was crucial regardless
whoops

[Raskolnikov]

smith what were your reads

[Raskolnikov]

yeah that too along with the PR picks
"kraska has requested replacement" in game thread after role PMs were sent out... totally not suspicious

[Raskolnikov]

th-thanks lycan. I think my d3 was pretty garbage tbh as being townread made me way too complacent, same with d2 it was hard to care with vedith the confirmed lynch. Going into d3 with ranger dead I was tbh the most threatened of you coming back, I tried to put up a show around your claim and seem like i cared reading it for you.

[Raskolnikov]

hurray bastion. overall play really great and I think you barely got voted either, only a few people started to scumread you towards the end when it was already too late
the only like big things I noticed about you were
1. the day 1 hop onto NJAC was kind of dodgy given your position previous to it (and a bit earlier, when you were like OMG stop pushing light you weren't counterpushing anything which I think I'd still have noticed as town tho im not sure)
2. the day 3 active lurking towards the end and like 0 comment on genji the entire day while he was THE lynch target. idk if you did this partly to get people more confbias in associations though.

analysis was fantastic and i really liked your d2

[Raskolnikov]

genji most of your game you knew from your pov there was confirmed scum within {superbowl, me}
and you didnt vote one of us or try that hard to figure out WHICH it was between us two

[Raskolnikov]

But the correct play was to no lynch in MYLo situation.
Lynching in MYLO is almost always bad

to be fair if this was a game where people picked JOAT as one the mafia powers (which is more common than rolecop and ESPECIALLY BP) no-lynch would just have shaddowez killed and one less vote to mislynch someone

so it would have been the optimal choice here but not in like 8 of 10 scenarios similar to this (3 mafia things chosen), so as a theoretical choice it wasnt really that good

[Raskolnikov]

But the correct play was to no lynch in MYLo situation.
Lynching in MYLO is almost always bad

to be fair if this was a game where people picked JOAT as one the mafia powers (which is more common than rolecop and ESPECIALLY BP) no-lynch would just have shaddowez killed and one less vote to mislynch someone

so it would have been the optimal choice here but not in like 8 of 10 scenarios similar to this (3 mafia things chosen), so as a theoretical choice it wasnt really that good

actually I take this back
Joat strongman would have been used n2 onto highhopes and not have been available for n3.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm wondering what the odds were we kill N_M there to fuck with everyone

[Raskolnikov]

nah it would have looked bad for me... if there was a kill outside of the PRs people would wonder why it isnt me

[Raskolnikov]

well anyone looking at my meta wouldve seen me do it as town so I had to be consistent!!!

[Raskolnikov]

its ok bastion by the looks of it your next game will be years from now

also lol I didnt really notice that buddying until I said "hey, bastion is kind of being non-committal here" and superbowls like no dude I liked that analysis it was perfectly fine what you are talking about :v

[Raskolnikov]

Okay, lesson learned.

Night 2 is the latest I can ever leave ranger alive

[Raskolnikov]

*day 2.

[Raskolnikov]

i find it helps to get people to listen to you if you dont antagonise them

[Raskolnikov]

@Ranger I did mean it when I said that logic was amazing though. As in, for a traitor when you see IC as a role I can 100% see how it could be a really good play and probably even optimal. It blew my mind, as someone who was originally going be traitor.

The problem was, even if you know that it's technically good play, how likely is it really that a traitor also comes up with it independently? If it was someone really into setup analysis stuff like you ranger I would maybe understand it but I would never in a million years think it's LIKELY from MOST players or vedith even if it is optimal. I mean consider how you came to that idea after seeing the claim, and imagine traitor individually planning all of that, it just sounds so incredibly unlikely.

[Raskolnikov]

I thought Rask was town

You're improving, Rask!
(nice turnaround from when we were both bitching about how bad we were as scum in our newbie night chat )

Thanks! Tbh this is 90% town imploding, I just played lurksac and prodged countlessly with a shallow poe stance so it feels weird to hear this

Now, regardless of kyndy's alignment, kyndy will not perform the kill.

I think highhopes uses WIFOM and roleblocks either me or you.

Maybe using kyndy to get the kill is worth it?

WE DID IT BASTION! wifom'd the wifom

Combination of reasons. Basically, I actually

have

Vedith pegged as someone who would do setup analysis: someone whose play might be of questionable value, but knows the values and strengths of PRs. The proof was from Vedith himself, in fact; he went into meticulous detail about the strength of the Goon Cop (rather, his stance of a lack thereof), and that instantly set off the alarm bells. When combined with his "these players are NOT my scumbuddies" posting (which screamed traitor-signaling), along with the interactions between him and my other scumreads looking like both halves were scum but not scum in communication with one another, and the evidence was there.

Oh I see, that makes sense. I didn't understand those weird posts from him either (still don't) but I didn't see how scummy they looked to you guys because of my scum pov.

I think even if vedith answered right and lived there the lynch that day and the one after would've still been hebee or kyndy in either order though (with the 2 resulting nightkills probably being lycan and you), and perhaps a competitive 5p lylo. Although it's possible genji replace would have changed your mind on the slot too and maybe avoided that lynch.
I am curious, if you had more nights to roleblock would you still try roleblocking in townier people or would you have switched to blocking kyndy at some point?

[Raskolnikov]

lunch the rollcop!