Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: RB

No Roleblockers in this game.

[BTD6_maker]

Thoughts on Mas y Menos:

It's true that No Lynching is suboptimal. The mathematics proves this. Scum will probably kill the Towniest Townie, who will most likely not get lynched anyway. If we mislynch twice (probably on people who would otherwise be viable mislynches Day 3) we narrow it down to 2 scum and 3 Town. If we hit even one scum, we have better chances. Plus, it is better to narrow the lynch pool in preparation for Day 3 so the remaining Townies are Townier than the two lynches. Thus, from a scum hunting viewpoint as well as a mathematical viewpoint, No Lynch is bad.

Mathematics in itself does not guarantee any one game (unless you are playing Micro 641) but it can tell what is optimal for games in aggregate. Here, the optimal play is lynching.

[BTD6_maker]

Here it is:
1: What is your preferred faction?
2: What would you say you bring to the game that others don't?
3: Tell me a bit about your username, signature, and/or avatar.
My answers:
1: I would have to say town because the game feels more relaxed.
2: I bring a sense of humor I would say is nigh unrivaled.
3: My username is an old idea of a Pokemon Emerald remake. My signature is a quote from a webcomic, and I find the quote works really well here.

And about those wagons, I have seen votes meant to bait reactions on EpicMafia plenty of times. It's not only about successful wagons.

1: Scum. I tend to play better as scum than as Town in general (for example Micro 618, Open 642, Mini Theme 1810).
2: I tend to be more logical than most players.
3: Many years ago, I played Bloons Tower Defense 5 and came up with a list of ideas for Bloons Tower Defense 6. I used this username on Ninja Kiwi forums and have been using it since.
My signature is a quote from Micro 641.

[BTD6_maker]

I guess I'll add those.
4: What is your experience with Mafia?
5: Who here have you played with before?
My answers
4: One near complete off site forum game, one ongoing game here, many EM games, and many IRL games.
5: No one.

4: My wiki page has a list of completed games. Also, roughly two years ago I played in three MeatWorld role madness games.
5: Blackstar and McMenno (Also Comparing Realities, but the game was over before he could post).

[BTD6_maker]

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

Likewise, I dont trust your math at all because it hasn't been tested by practical application.
Theory math sucks.

~Mas Y

the mathematical probability of certain events happening is literally half of the entire basis on which the balance of mafia games is based (the other half is that town is, on average, not that good). you're arguing that town should do something that is objectively not in their best interest when you have direct evidence for why that's the case right in front of you

VOTE: Mas y Menos

I'm analysing votes to see which are good and which are rubbish.

On its own, Xyzzy is arguing that Mas y Menos is scum for suggesting the wrong thing. I agree that Mas y Menos is wrong to ignore the theory maths but I doubt this is scummy. If Mas y Menos is scum, they should be proposing what they think is the most pro-Town way to play, otherwise they risk drawing attention to themselves. Their play has been divisive, making some people scumread them and some people Townread them. Of course, a possibility is that this is what they could have been hoping for as scum. Overall, this is probably NAI and definitely not a scumtell, and I don't like Xyzzy's justification for voting.

[BTD6_maker]

I don't like this post.

What do you not like about it Key?

~Menos

First of all, On that post, You said we should just skip D1 and D2 because we auto win when we lynched a Mafia D3. So how do we lynch scum if we don't have any evidences and info?

NL-ing on D1 and D2 is never a good choice. There's still a chance that if we lynched a mafia D1 or D2, We can use some things that he town read the most, Which have a possibility it's his scum buddy.

For me, you are the most scummy here and I don't get your point.

VOTE: Mas y Menos

Same thing here. Apart from making the wrong decision on whether to lynch, what is so scummy about Mas y Menos?

[BTD6_maker]

I don't think scum, unless very experienced and already known for disliking large posts, would get as confrontational about a single wall-post as rb has. I think scum would be more inclined to say "Fine, I'll look back over it," and not call this much attention to themselves.

VOTE: BTD6_maker

BTD strikes me as the flying under the radar type. I'd like to see more thoughts from him, especially harder stances than "This is mostly NAI."

I was referring to one action. My reads are developing and are still weak in early Day 1. Voting because you think I am scum is good. Voting because you want me to give more reads is not.

[BTD6_maker]

Comparing Realities is the only one pinging me right now:

VOTE: Comparing Realities


I have town on Alchemist, Rb, XYZ.
Rest Null.

Also Alchemist, I think this continues the trend of us being same alignment

~Mas Y

Can you please try to give some reasons for this vote? At the moment you haven't mentioned a single other thing about CR outside of RVS. If no one gives reasons then no one will be able to see what pinged you, or even if there was a reason other than "I want CR mislynched today so that a scum is not lynched". This post is mildly scummy to me.

[BTD6_maker]

I don't think scum, unless very experienced and already known for disliking large posts, would get as confrontational about a single wall-post as rb has. I think scum would be more inclined to say "Fine, I'll look back over it," and not call this much attention to themselves.

VOTE: BTD6_maker

BTD strikes me as the flying under the radar type. I'd like to see more thoughts from him, especially harder stances than "This is mostly NAI."

I was referring to one action. My reads are developing and are still weak in early Day 1. Voting because you think I am scum is good. Voting because you want me to give more reads is not.

And supposing my vote is for both reasons, what do you make of that?

Please give the full reasons for your scumread. Are you scumreading me just because I am not posting as much, or is there more?

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Xyzzy

I like this better than Mas. Xyzzy doesn't do much other than throw shade and despite thinking I'm a strong lynch candidate, keeps their vote aligned with mine. Key, Alchemist: thoughts?

Of course, Xyzzy thought that you and Mas are both viable lynches. I don't see how picking one of them (the one you happened to be voting) is scummy.

However, overall this is one of the better non-RVS votes in this game. Nulltown read.

UNVOTE: RB

[BTD6_maker]

I'm scumreading you because I think that you are trying to post while giving as little valuable content as possible. Nothing you've said is really useful, and I think you just don't want to form hard opinions because you don't want to come under scrutiny for them. I couldn't even tell if what you said about xyzzy was a scumread or just a dislike of the vote.

I don't want to form hard opinions because I don't have very strong opinions in early Day 1. As the game progresses opinions naturally get stronger. Also, explain why my analysing of votes is not valuable.

[BTD6_maker]

Null-weak Town: RB, Comparing Realities
Null: Blackstar, Gamma Emerald
Nullscum: Keyenpeydee, Xyzzy
Weak scum: Mas y Menos,Alchemist21

Does this help?

[BTD6_maker]

With CR being my strongest Townread and Mas y Menos being my strongest scumread, at this stage I am willing to agree with CR and vote Mas. I'll give it a bit more time before hammering though (deadline is far away).

It's true that Mas y Menos made a mistake in suggesting it and that if that was an honest mistake it's NAI, but as CR said, Mas y Menos' stubborn attempts to justify it instead of admitting that they were wrong seems scummy.

[BTD6_maker]

While I do feel that Mas y Menos is currently my strongest scumread, Mas does have a point. While Xyzzy and Keyenpeydee are both only nullscum, this is because in my opinion they are both more likely to be scum together and less likely to be scum with someone else.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Mas y Menos

This is L-1

[BTD6_maker]

Comparing Realities has suggested that if BlackStar is scum, so is Mas y Menos. This implies that Mas y Menos is a good lynch today. If we lynch scum then good. If we mislynch then we have more information (assuming CR is not lying, BlackStar is very likely Town). Bear in mind that in this setup we need to be gathering as much information as we can get on Days 1 and 2, even if we end up mislynching, to ensure a win on Day 3. This is why Mas y Menos is a good lynch.

[BTD6_maker]

Blackstar, Comparing Realities, Gamma Emerald

Alchemist21, Mas y Menos, Xyzzy

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Mas y Menos

This is my strongest scumread. Personally, Alchemist is currently slightly weaker than Xyzzy, but both are scumreads.
If a consensus for second scumread is clear, I will switch.

[BTD6_maker]

I am waiting for Mas y Menos' and Alchemist's list. Then we can analyse the information to determine the ideal lynch candidate. (This is as Xyzzy has both of them in the scum list, so I am waiting to see whether they also have similar scmreads to each other/other players.)

[BTD6_maker]

What is better today, lynching Town or scum? Lynching scum is usually better for us, though it doesn't matter. If lynching scum is better, it is better to lynch our top scumread today. If not lynching scum is better, the ideal lynch would be the Towniest person. (This is probably not the case). My point is, in either case lynching the second scummiest is suboptimal. We should lynch the scummiest.

VOTE: Alchemist21

This is the person in the most scum lists.

[BTD6_maker]

Sorry for not posting that much. I have been very busy. Things should clear up fairly soon.

[BTD6_maker]

It is

possible

that lynching the Towniest is best, but highly unlikely. Lynchhing Town gives us a 40% win rate. Lynching scum gives us a 46.7% win rate. Thus it is generally better to lynch scum. That was just to show that the second scummiest is suboptimal no matter what.

[BTD6_maker]

BTD6 has got to be scum if only because nobody thinks he's scum.

That's the Too Townie fallacy.

This is interesting. My three scumreads are Alchemist, Mas, and Xyzzy. I could stick with Alchemist at the moment. I could also switch to Xyzzy or Mas if a wagon is required.
VOTE: Mas y Menos
Out of the three, this is my strongest so I will go with this one.

L-1

[BTD6_maker]

I said it tongue-in-cheekily. BTD6 is

not

too townie; I contend he hasn't said much of anything that's alignment indicative. I cannot see anything he says as being more likely said by town than scum, or the other way around. He feels very controlled, which itself is a scummy trait, but in isolation is, again, not alignment indicative.

Please explain how being controlled is scummy at all. In me, it is NAI but I want to know whether it is site meta that being controlled is scummy.

Anyway, looking at the VCA, it is possible that the scumteam is Xyzzy and CR but it is highly unlikely in my opinion that they would not try to get Keyenpeydee lynched earlier and that all wagoners were Town. Thus I am forced to conclude that there was almost certainly scum on that wagon. Of course, from my perspective the two most likely are MyM and Alchemist, but Blackstar and/or GE are possibilities. If there was only one scum on the wagon, Xyzzy is likely the other scum.

[BTD6_maker]

Remember my theory about rb's scumreads being correct? And how xyzzy was totally opposed to them? xyzzy never cited himself as rb's main scumread, but we all knew what he was thinking.

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(3):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

, xyzzy

rb

(2): BTD6_maker, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(2): Gamma Emerald, Alchemist21

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

Not voting

(1): Mas y Menos

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy,

keyenpeydee

rb

(2): BTD6_maker, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(2): Alchemist21, Mas y Menos

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

xyzzy

(1):

rb

Not voting

(1): Gamma Emerald

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy, Comparing Realities

Comparing Realities

(1): Mas y Menos

keyenpeydee

(1): BlackStar

BTD6_maker

(1): Alchemist21

Not voting

(2): Gamma Emerald, BTD6_maker

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(4): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Comparing Realities, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(4): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Comparing Realities, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(4): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald

Mas y Menos

(3): xyzzy, Comparing Realities, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(2):

rb

,

keyenpeydee

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(5): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald,

keyenpeydee

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(1):

rb

Not voting

(1): Comparing Realities

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes were required for a lynch.
Deadline was Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

keyenpeydee

was lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Players have until 1am UTC on Sunday 18 September to submit their night actions, if any (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-18 01:00:00)

).
Day 2 will start at around that time (although ugh, you lot ended the day at an inconvenient time, so I might be a little late in starting it).

rb

was killed overnight. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Vote Count

Not voting

(7): Comparing Realities, BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, xyzzy, BTD6_maker

With 7 votes in play, 4 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Sunday 2 October at 01:15 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-02 01:15:00)

)

Kind of makes you wonder.

If xyzzy is scum, then the other scum was probably on the key wagon through its completion. Black Star, Mas Y Menos, Alchemist, and Gamma...

How skilled is Keyenpeydee as Town? Are his reads normally accurate? If so, that points to Xyzzy being scum, especially due to the RB kill. There are no PRs so leaving alie someone Townish who is too accurate in their reads is risky. However, this should be taken with a pinch of salt as the NK could be WIFOM.

[BTD6_maker]

Mas Y Menos' case on me is technically true, but irrelevant. If I were scum, I would have killed CR. However, so would most people. The two Towniest people were CR and myself and I was busy throughout D2 and couldn't post much, so the logical kill would be CR. What you are missing is that if I am scum, would we have killed RB? If so, CR suggested that the partner should be pushing WIFOM for the kill throughout D2.

Think about it. Does the RB kill make much sense if I am scum?

[BTD6_maker]

Like if it was alchemist I think he would kill blackstar
If it was gamma he would kill alchemist or black star.
BTD6 is only one who makes sense to me as making that terrible kill.

Black star probably would have killed alchemist

Why is that kill terrible? I'm pretty sure anyone could have killed CR.

[BTD6_maker]

Alchemist is a likely other scum, and so is Blackstar at the moment as possible people who would kill RB and CR.

For now:

VOTE: Alchemist21

[BTD6_maker]

MyM, do you have other reasons for voting me besides the kill on CR?

Anyway, I Townread Gamma Emerald. After the CR kill this is my strongest Townread. I will not lynch this slot today.
MyM and Blackstar are somewhere. Probably around null. Blackstar was my weakest Townread and MyM was my weakest scumread after the kill, so they are quite close. I am not convinced it's them, but they are within FOS range. I will lynch here if I have to.
That leaves Alchemist21, my strongest scumread at this point. I want this slot lynched today. If Blackstar moves here then this could work.

[BTD6_maker]

This game has stagnated. Nothing much is happening.

As for NKA, RB probably died for accurate reads. It is possible that CR died for the same reason.
It is also possible that scum are trying to frame me, in which case they are probably the most vocal supporters of my wagon (MyM). If this is the reason, MyM looks worse.
This should all be taken with a pinch of salt, as NKA has a lot of WIFOM potential.

[BTD6_maker]

Town should bear in mind that I was the single most Townread person at the end of Day 2, and framing seems likely, to make Town view me as a viable lynch rather than a general Townread. Between me and CR, one had to die, and CR's death casts suspicion on me, so CR died and no one is near-unlynchable.

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Blackstar

I seriously prefer an Alchemist lynch but that seems much more unlikely to happen at this stage. Blackstar is nullscum and I am confTown from my perspective so this is probably the correct play here.
This game has stagnated.

[BTD6_maker]

Interesting that you decided to vote for me right when people said they were ready to hammer you

That is why I voted. Keeping my vote on Alchemist would guarantee that Town would be lynched due to the unlikelihood of the lynch happening. Voting you in this situation is optimal.

[BTD6_maker]

McMenno, just

why

did you vote me without any discussion?
Well done scum. I probably never would have suspected Gamma. I don't think I would even have guessed that Xyzzy's animated GIF was a secret signal to start bussing.

[BTD6_maker]

Yes but in the scumchat he mentioned that it meant he approved of this bus to tell GE that he made the right decision.