Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[Comparing Realities]

VOTE: key
In fact, I've changed my mind. I think rb is key's partner now.

No, no, no,

no![/n] If rb were key's partner, then why would key call out for rb to hammer?

[Comparing Realities]

Logic I've laid out for who could be key's partner, assuming scum!key:

that was a very poignant speech, Comparing Realities. very moving.

of the two meaningless wagons so far, this is the one that feels like it has slightly more behind it (plus, that dabbing panda is weird):

VOTE: keyenpeydee

>missing the whole point of RVS to be honest
You don't join one of two main wagons simply because the

other

wagon has too much pressure, that undermines the effect we're trying to create, that sheer psychological torment of having everyone senselessly hate you for no explicable reason beyond your ugly dabbing panda face. If anything, you want to add as much pressure as possible to a preexisting wagon, to, you know, elicit a reaction and stuff~ Otherwise the whole point of RVS is moot.
Not saying this is a scum read, but

assuming xyzzy is scum, rb and key are the most plausible partners due to the converse possibilities of majority anti-maintenance and WIFOM.

Spoiler: Non-essential

Huh.
Honestly, I wasn't taking the dabbing panda seriously until Black Star's rantument. The first half makes a great case on key, but in the second half, it feels like Black is swamped down by his thoughts, grasping at straws, whatever term you'd like to use. That same thought process befalls me frequently as scum, so by an argument via empathy, if key is town, I think Black looks pretty bad. I don't think town would go all-out like that so early.
...But why'd Black stir so much up in the first place? He'd FOSed key weakly once before, said he was "suspicious," and made one post about Black being wagon-happy before he started the rantument. Why even bother bringing it all up, if he was scum? The only reason I can think of is to distract from the then-at-L-1 Mas wagon. Key looked weird, Black had FOSed him before, it was a natural fit if you wanted to preserve a buddy.
Other than that, I see no motivation for scum!BlackStar to distract from the town!Mas D1 fodder.

If BlackStar is scum, Mas has to be the partner.

Of course, if we end up lynching Mas, and they do flip scum, then BlackStar looks bad in hindsight... Seems a pretty brazen move, actually.
Other than all that, I do townread Black. I still don't like Mas. If Mas is town, BlackStar is confirmed town, I'd say, but if Mas is scum, then BlackStar would be one of my main targets for tomorrow.

Essentially, Black isn't likely key's partner because Black started the key wagon.

Mas, thoughts on this wagon? I have some, but you're the one at risk so I want you to say it first.

Well I think its kind of funny both my scumreads are now on my wagon.
I think this game is simple enough as XYZ and Key being the scum team.

Everyone else by default is town.

~Mas Y

XYZ and key might individually be scummy (both have bad vote patterns essentially) but I don't see why they're a good team together.

Key seemed to have a predisposition towards lynching XYZ instead of rb, remember? Dropped the rb vote immediately, unvoting in the exact same post, almost as if he was predetermined to lynch xyzzy and the results of the ISO were inconsequential, because he'd already mad cup his mind he was going to decide xyzzy was worthy of a vote. BlackStar said as much in the rantument. For that reason alone, I don't think key/xyz is a viable team.

The thing about key is that

he's a compatible partner with, like, everyone except those currently voting him. If key is scum, and another scum is currently on the wagon, it's got to be BTD6 bussing

, wanting to look good despite his moderate lurking, and betting on nobody actually wanting to hammer so early in the day. We have ten more days, after all; who wants to be the one to cut that short?

rb, well i did an iso read and gotta say I'm actually surprised that her vote still stays on mas y menos despite saying you're a strong lynch candidate which is kinda alarming for me.

VOTE: xyzzy

Care to explain why rb is a strong lynch candidate? Make it detailed.

And I'm sorry for voting you, rb because I just don't like what you're doing rn. Explain it would get me replaced but Imma trust you now. And also, I did a xyzzy iso so I don't quite sheep you.

Pretty sure this was attempt to create distance.

~Mas Y

But by creating this "distance", he brings attention to xyzzy who otherwise was mostly unremarkable, and then this lynch is what triggers Black's rantument.

That's a terrible thing to do to his partner.

Therefore likely not his partner

I think there's probably scum on it. I have to rethink my key townread because a thing happened that I'm not so sure I like.

Their vote on me looked town, but the way they moved it didn't. It didn't make sense for town to move vote, but it made sense for scum because I was townreading them. They moved vote because they didn't want to vote an "ally" and had zero suspicion of me townreading them. Shit he even apologized for voting me.

I rarely think it's so easy to find scum but I think key really might be scum with xyzzy.

It's not that easy.

Key and xyzzy hurt each other, they can't be a team.

If they are both scum, I will eat my underwear and I'll send you the video.

(Gamma rather overtly unvotes key for no explicable reason, despite saying key is scum. This is so mind-bendingly strange, I don't think mafia could think like that--and say it publicly.)

...
Does this mean Gamma is town?
He can't bey key's partner, right?

VOTE: key
In fact, I've changed my mind. I think rb is key's partner now.

No, no, no,

no![/n]

If rb were key's partner, then why would key call out for rb to hammer?

[Gamma Emerald]

I was tying to find the second scum when I unvoted. As I said, I saw that done on another site.

[keyenpeydee]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Comparing Realities

He's your team aren't you?

[BlackStar]

At this point its starting to look like you're just trolling. Can we lynch him already?

[keyenpeydee]

VOTE: Key

Hope you guys enjoy.

[xyzzy]

scum gambit? really shitty town? ugh

[Alchemist21]

I'm fine with ending the day since the game seems to be stagnating here, but if anyone has stuff they want to talk about I'm fine with waiting a bit.

This is where my reads are at right now:

Town Reads:
rb (weak)
gamma emerald
mas y menos (strong)
Black Star (strong if Key is scum, weak or null if Key is Town)
Comparing Realities (strong)

null reads:
Xyzzy (Town if Key is scum)

scum reads:
btd6_maker (weak now, goes back to strong if Key flips scum)
keyenpeydee

I think CR's unvote because he doesn't want the Day to end early is a good Town sign. I am completely confident on my mas y menos Townread, and any scum on an L-1 wagon on Town isn't going to jump off to extend the Day.

On the flip side, Gamma becomes strong Town for the same reason if Key is Town. The unvote and "I want to apply pressure elsewhere" statement looked weird, but his ISO shows a history of unvoting without immediately placing it somewhere else, so at the very least it's not scum jumping off the bus wagon.

My BTD read was weakened by Fire's point about their meta, but didn't eliminate it completely, and if Key flips scum most everyone else is cleared.

rb's posts I think are more likely to come from the semi-aggressive kind of Town player, but it's not something that's unfakeable as scum and the voting history wouldn't clear him regardless of what key flips. This read would drop to Null in two scenarios:
1.)Key flips Town
2.) Key flips scum, but BTD flips Town.

@Black Star, I just noticed you listed xyzzy as another scumread. Why did you scumread them, and do you still scumread them now?

[Alchemist21]

Did he just self-hammer or is that L-1?

[BlackStar]

That's a self hammer. Why do you scum read me?

[Alchemist21]

I'm not scumreading you. My Townread of you would just be weakened or eliminated in case of a Key Townflip. Again, why were/are you scumreading xyzzy?

[xyzzy]

he was at L-1 as of the last vote count; Gamma Emerald moved his vote elsewhere and then back to keyenpeydee, and then keyenpeydee self-voted. unless I completely missed someone else unvoting, that was a self-hammer.

[keyenpeydee]

Since I self hammer, If I flip town. Lynch Xyzzy

[BlackStar]

I scumread xyzzy because he placed a vote down early on and hasn't moved it, pushed hard for the lynch of that vote or done any scum hunting at all really. He's basically just here floating around.

[Alchemist21]

I see. That's understandable. If Key flips scum, how would that affect your xyzzy read?

[BlackStar]

I see. That's understandable. If Key flips scum, how would that affect your xyzzy read?

Not sure

[BlackStar]

I guess that would make it more likely that xyzzy is scum

[Alchemist21]

I see. I disagree, but thank you for answering. Do you think it would make xyzzy more likely scum because of how Key was acting toward xyzzy, or because of how xyzzy was acting toward the key wagon, or both?

[BlackStar]

Both

[Gamma Emerald]

Well that was...something.
Key if you are somehow town I will eat a fucking shoe. I don't think I'll be eating a shoe though.

Please don't actually do this; a) shoes aren't very nutritious, b) bets involving outside-game activities arguably violate the site rules (and the reflection in my ruleset as rule C4), although it's somewhat unclear because the rules don't consider the case in much detail. I've edited my rules to make this clearer, adding a new rule C5 that covers the situation — callforjudgement

[keyenpeydee]

Well that was...something.
Key if you are somehow town I will eat a fucking shoe. I don't think I'll be eating a shoe though.

Ahahahaha I'll wait for it

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

keyenpeydee

(5): BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, keyenpeydee

Mas y Menos

(2): xyzzy, BTD6_maker

xyzzy

(1): rb

Not voting

(1): Comparing Realities

With 9 votes in play, 5 votes were required for a lynch.
Deadline was Thursday 22 September at 06:10 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-22 06:10:00)

)

keyenpeydee

was lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Players have until 1am UTC on Sunday 18 September to submit their night actions, if any (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-09-18 01:00:00)

).
Day 2 will start at around that time (although ugh, you lot ended the day at an inconvenient time, so I might be a little late in starting it).

[callforjudgement]

rb

was killed overnight. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Vote Count

Not voting

(7): Comparing Realities, BlackStar, Mas y Menos, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, xyzzy, BTD6_maker

With 7 votes in play, 4 votes are required for a lynch.
Deadline is Sunday 2 October at 01:15 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-10-02 01:15:00)

)

[xyzzy]

hey pro-tip to everyone else since it apparently needs to be stated: don't self hammer as town wtf

anyway here's my suggestion based on what I said yesterday: we each put together a reads list with 3 people each in two categories (scum/not scum) with our lists alphabetized so that it's not possible for scum to know precisely which members of the town are perceived best and worst. then we figure out roughly who is the second scummiest person and lynch them, saving the scummiest person for tomorrow. to avoid allowing scum to manipulate the results too much, we'll choose the order in which we do this by popcorning it. are other people down for this plan?

(obviously we'll spend plenty of time actually discussing things—I'm not proposing that we just immediately lynch someone the moment we have the two candidates chosen—but I think this method will produce a strong guide for what direction to move in that is suited particularly well to this setup.)

[Alchemist21]

What if someone's reads change after they've posted them? And remind me why this works with the second scummiest over the first?