Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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K cool. Wrt rosske, it's conceivable he's the other goon but I don't think it's obvious at this point. I'll probably give a decent look through his (limited) meta as well if wing doesn't clarify his point there as well.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Well, yeah, no ongoings. But rosske has two relatively short isos in finished games, one for each alignment.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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It's against the rules to cite or describe ongoing games, it's not against the rules to skim ongoings to refine your read, although few bother to go through that much effort when they can't even be explicit about what they're seeing.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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And THAT is one of the big questions of the day I think. I think it's pretty decently suggestive of either Thor as a buddy or a buddy already on Thor, in which case the idea was to spread out votes and not bunch together in a sketchy looking way on a player there really wasn't a case against. NK motive is somewhat suggestive of not rosske, but I want to hear wings specific meta read justification first since he said meta was a meaningful part of the town read there.In post 1918, Tenshii wrote:Why would scum!Karnos be scared of voting a town!Thor here?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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So why do you think it's wolfy to hop on wolfy looking behavior? What in your mind would have been a proper town response to it?In post 1928, Rosske wrote:In response to people saying I voted opportunistically or without reason in day 1.
It's pretty much true. But it doesn't make me scum.
I didn't really have any strong reads on day 1. I jumped onto wagons and cast votes in order to apply pressure and see what would come back to me, in hopes of getting better reads. I wasn't voting for lynches as much as I was voting in search of information.
Totally get while you can scum read me for that, but that's what I was thinking. Part of my scum read on Transcend is in response to how quickly he snapped up scum-looking behavior from me.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@tenshii: so the issue here is that, based on your read, rosske is either bad town or just a wolf. Like, lurking and non-participation are suspicious, but they're well within the range of bad town. So why in your mind has rosske jumped from bad/unhelpful town to actually being the last goon? I'd like to know how much of the case really boils down to "stuff that is bad town or wolf, and hey if we mislynch its not like we lose an active participating member", and how much is truly wolf-indicative.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@rosske: what do you think of the meta read stated on you? Do you think it's a valid description of the difference between your town and scum game? Why or why not?
As far as a town v town tunnel goes, those can and do happen. If your case on transcend boils down to "he's tunneling me and I'm town" that's not much of a case.
And what are your reads on the rest of the field, and why? A lack of substantive participation has been a big knock on you this game. A good way to fix that is to start substantively participating.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@wing: it's been a month so I don't remember that well, but I believe I read it through once before reading my role pm, and had a gut ping about Luna on my first read through.
You are correct that I didn't especially suspect karnos when I popped in. The reason it changed was I went back and carefully read the back and forths between him, Thor and io. My first take was Luna was opportunistically hopping on a mislynch wagon; only after I dug into it did I suspect karnos more. Had karnos flipped green I probably would have pushed harder on her d2; IIRC my twilight postings d1 suggested this (including suspicion of scum theater between kts and Luna).
As far as my read changing, I thought her content improved as the game continued, I liked her twilight d1 push on kts,etc. I'm not sure I can really put a finger on exactly where and when my read on her changed, though, at least not off the cuff.
Wrt passion, sometimes I feel really strongly about a case and pursue it with vigor, and sometimes I don't. What I'm usually trying to do is either find the best lynch or push the best lynch. When I'm not particularly sure, I'm much more in info-gathering mode (questioning, re-reading, etc). I'd say I didn't pursue the kts case with strong vigor, and I definitely didn't do that with PC since I didn't even vote him until after hammer, and even that was a "a majority shouldn't be ignored just because mod screwed up" vote. PC was a plausible wolf but by no means a lock; and I didn't treat him as if he was.
Ps http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8168308 was the more detailed case I'd made on karnos, and reflected my thought process at the time, but like I said, I figured the board wasn't interested in wall posts so I didn't bother posting it in detail until asked for later,
Pps I think transcends push on me wasn't obviously town or obviously wolf. I think it was a questionable push using lazy reading, which is suspicious but nothing like a smoking gun. My sense is youre suspicious of it, though; am I correct, and is that still the case?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Yes. I'm trying to get some answers from rosske on other questions before I really react to your case though.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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When did I ask people this? Citations needed. I re-isod myself and I see myself challenging people who had town reads on karnos or were pushing elsewhere. Where did I ask "what they thought of the evidence against Karnos"?In post 1992, Wingback wrote:I'm not going to re-read a 200 page-long ISO but key points that stuck out to me:
1) Mhsmith's case and jump onto Karnos is the only one out of everyone here that makes sense as a smooth hop onto a bus wagon. Everyone else has interactions that stick out in a way that is unlikely to be bussing (except Rosske but he has the nightkill going for him).
2) Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing.
I didn't react because it was stupidly obvious as a fake out. Also precisely three people (Luna, trans, giga) reacted, and Luna's reaction was just a quick response to trans.
3) Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim.
How is this even suggestive much less indicative?
How was my push subtle and representative of "positioning" as opposed to an actual effort to sort him? Do you think my vote and then unvote was fake? If so, what in that sequence pings you as being fake?
4) Mhsmith's subtle push on Transcend after I outlined suspicion of him without explicitly agreeing with me and using information he had for months is a scummy positioning move.
Which of my wolf games gm have you read to make the determination that effort is not alignment indicative for me?
VOTE: Mhsmith
This is who I think will slip scum. There's no real reason I can find to townread him other than lots of effort but that's something I could see him doing as scum given how thorough and focused and determined to win he is in his other games regardless of alignment. I could see him kill outside Thor for the WIFOM and chaos.
For that matter, which of my town games have you read to conclude that I'm consistently "thorough and focused and determined to win"?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?In post 231, karnos wrote:
If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?In post 220, Kcdaspot wrote:with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)
ANNNNNNND
VOTE: KTS
We real now
pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.
Also, you say "Why ask a townie with a short fuse and an erratic playstyle to hammer? Kcdaspot might as well have hammered there for all Karnos knew. ". Why would you presume karnos didn't know the vote count? This seems much likelier to be a fake attempt to project not knowing the vote count than a fake "I'll get my buddy to hammer" bit. Are you aware of a meta of karnos being clueless as to vote counts (iirc he was at like 4 votes then, WELL away from the hammer point)?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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A tactical replace out in this situation would be disgusting. I'm choosing to believe it's NAI by rosske.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@trans: I'll talk more about rosske tonight.
@gig: Wrt luna, my recollection was her postings and engagement improved. For instance her early d2 rosske stuff looked natural and like she was actively working to clear townies, which in that spot isn't really how I'd expect a wolf to act. I can probably re-read and find more specific stuff if you're really curious about my read of her in particular.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Actually...
@mod: please clarify your policy on the deadline given the replacementShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Rosske is subbing out, and until and unless the mod weighs in, I'm presuming that the deadline is frozen. I planned to pay more attention to him in particular, but given that he can't answer any questions (and who knows when the sub will come in and, presumably, participate), there's less that can be productively done there at the moment.
Anyway, since wing referenced Mini 1800 I went back and skimmed karnos's ISO. I notice there that he basically never engages his partners (at least not in terms of quoting or @ mentions - it's possible there are in-thread conversations that a quick ISO misses), except for a stretch where he was talking with one partner (Magna) about a bus of the third (Mathblade). This reinforces the conclusion that karnos's lack of engagement with partners is a meaningful part of his wolf meta. This further clears Thor, giga and Wing IMO, which FMPOV leads to a pretty likely PoE of Tenshii, Rosske, and Transcend. If you presume Transcend is town (and I'm increasingly reading him that way - it seems pretty clear that he believes that Rosske is the last wolf) then I think it's basically inside {Tenshii, Rosske}.
The problem I have is that (IMO) there isn't any kind of glaringly obvious single last wolf, which does make me suspect that I'm missing something important. Probably gonna do another read through over the weekend, since again I'm presuming deadline is frozen until a sub comes in. Some responses to wing coming in a bit.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Actually...
Talk more aboutIn post 2023, Tenshii wrote:VOTE: mhsmith0
The only thing I don't really agree with is how Karnos challenged kcdaspot. I don't really get why Karnos would attack his own partner like that. Other than that, everything adds up. kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.
Do you mean this sequence?kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo
In post 231, karnos wrote:
If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?In post 220, Kcdaspot wrote:with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)
ANNNNNNND
VOTE: KTS
We real now
pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.
What in particular pings you about KC's reaction? Also, do you think that karnos's quote is how you'd expect one wolf to talk to another? Obviously there's a wide range of what wolves can do, but that's a weird interaction between wolves. It reminds me a lot more of what I saw in my most recent completed game...In post 234, Kcdaspot wrote:OHBOYOHBOYOHBOY KTS FRONT LIKE HE A SASSY LIL GIRL HE DONT KNOW HOW THIS REAL MUTHAHEFFE CAN SNATCH DEM WEAVES IN A INSTANT
karnos got the idea. hes still scummy thoo.and .... wtf KTS?
Spoiler: BBT and me
In that case, BBT was a wolf and I was town (incidentally, kuroi was also a wolf, but that's not particularly relevant for this comparison). I guess I'm curious why you (and wing for that matter) would look at that interaction and think w/w.
It's just weird for a wolf to just challenge his teammate to vote for him like that. It seems a lot more like an intended manipulation of "look at me, I'm willing to die, that makes me town" (or possibly "look at this guy not putting his vote where his mouth is" as a discrediting maneuver), with KC then falling for it (to some extent anyway - if nothing else it kept KC on KTS). Like, challenging a wolf bro in that situation with the intent to simulate a pocketing of a townie (or possibly a discrediting attempt), without day chat, is a maneuver that's potentially super risky (since the teammate can screw up that interaction in all sorts of ways, including having it simply just come across wrong). What makes you think that karnos is either capable of pulling that kind of maneuver off or even willing to try it? To me, that's simply not how I'd expect a wolf to talk to his teammate.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.In post 2024, Tenshii wrote:
Also this post initially rubbed me off the wrong way when I first saw it but it kinda makes sense now. mhsmith0 was trying to do an indirect attack on Thor. I think mhsmith0 would've pushed this harder as town. I don't understand why town!mhsmith0 brings it up like that without any followup.In post 1631, mhsmith0 wrote:It's still really weird I think that karnos never bothered making a meaningful survival move onto a different wagon, like Thor or PC, when there was reasonable chance to justify it. I guess he was trying to imitate townie stubbornness but it really didn't work.
It's also pretty annoying that we don't get VC's in order of voting, so it's kinda hard to unpack that way. I may try and pull one together that orders votes, but probably not ASAP.
I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).
Response?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Currently, Tenshii, Rosske, and MAYBE you. Really not sure on the third, but I feel pretty decent about the town reads on giga, wing and thor.In post 2002, Transcend wrote:Smith, I've just realized you've been fairly neutral for today. Like you voted me for a bit and that was just for a bit. You haven't really finalized your reads from what i see. We are approaching deadline so i wanna know from you if you had to take 3 shots at one duck in this game, what would they be?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I have no idea why you would think this. What's your experience seeing wolves challenging other players to vote for them and/or calling them out for not having already done so? Can you think of any examples where such an interaction is wolf/wolf? I just popped out one that was town/wolf from the very last game I finished, and while that's a sample size of exactly one, I'm highly curious if you can provide any good examples of a similar interaction being wolf/wolf.In post 1997, Wingback wrote:
I never said I specifically saw him challenge a buddy to vote.In post 1994, mhsmith0 wrote:@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?I think it's less likely he would bait a town player into voting him than a partner.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@Wingback: talk about what exactly pinged you in the re-read that you hadn't already been aware of? You voted me 20 minutes after posting the above, which seems like an awfully quick turnaround from your previous "I'm planning on voting rosske" bit. It seems like your big evidence point was the "baiting" bit, which is a strange piece of evidence to base a major swing in read, both because I don't see how it's actually wolf-indicative and because it was very obviously not a hammer position if karnos was paying meaningful attention to the thread at that point (which I'd guess he was).In post 1990, Wingback wrote:In summary, this guy has a decent chance of flipping scum and I don't want him around in LYLO. Percentage-wise, I'd say 35% each on Rosske/mhsmith. 10% each on Transcend/Gigabyte, and 5% each on Thor/Tenshii. Lynching him over mhsmith makes sense given how thoughtful and interested in solving the game mhsmith is and leaving around someone like Rosske in lylo isn't something that I'm okay with.
I'll try and re-read Rosske's ISO (it's short enough so shouldn't take too long) and try and nail down an mhsmith read tonight. Unless something super-scummy pops up, I'll vote Rosske. Otherwise, I'll vote mhsmith.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Except KC didn't ignore it, and you now see this, is that correct? Also, what makes you think that KC wasn't simply inside of a tunnel of KTS? His follow-upIn post 2030, Tenshii wrote:
kcdaspot basically ignored it in his first post after Karnos challenged him. (Where I thought he ignored) then after Kcdaspot replies to Karnos with VC update being necessary.In post 2023, Tenshii wrote:kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.
I more or less agree with the latter half of your 2026.
seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?In post 237, Kcdaspot wrote:not totally my style. i can but when this guy is just posting like THIS? i cant... i cant just let this go.
to karnos: im waiting for the mod to get in here for a VC before i act on you anyway. gotta see who on that wagon. plus THIS GUY IM ON RIGHT NOW. I CANT JUST LET HIM GO.
Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?
Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8250571
Can you quote where you attacked/elaborated on Thor being alive? Iirc you never attacked/pressured Thor for it.In post 2027, mhsmith0 wrote:It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.
I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).
Response?
Also do you have any questions for me mhsmith0?
I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I Fixed Your post. Specific refutations include:In post 2033, Tenshii wrote:Btw Wing's page 80 is basically what convinced me. But mhsmith0hasn'thas refuted much of it
1) The discussion about the "baiting" post
2) The "KTS scumclaim" reaction bit. Only two players had any meaningful reaction there, out of the seven currently alive (Luna barely reacted, and even that just makes seven), which means that
is factually inaccurate.Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim
3)
is a STRETCH of what actually happened. He cited one instance, not mulitple, and even that was buried inside a post challenging someone (Transcend) about the stated karnos town read. This wasn't a vague or soft "what do you think of the evidence", this was a challenge to Transcend to justify his town read in the fact of a pretty weak and unsupported meta that Transcend himself used as evidence, when weighed against what everyone else had argued. I utterly fail to see how that's wolf-indicative and so should you.Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing
and while we're at it...
4)
@Wing:The unvote looked fake because it showed that your vote lacked conviction. I find many scum are more likely to not push an aggressive town player and to unvote more easily in the face of aggression because they are afraid that other townies will see it as obvtown and they're left with a stale vote hanging there. Not all scum players do this. For instance, I wouldn't expect Transcend or Thor to back down so easily. But you fit the profile of analytical scum who has trouble faking overt conviction in your pushes.
So I, as a wolf, backed down in the face of Transcend's continued aggression towards a different player (Rosske) and insistence upon Rosske's lynch even in the face of his own potential lynch? This seems a lot more like a town player who is simply unsure of what the correct lynch is, and is actively trying to figure it out. What makes you think that I'm not? Given the array of realistically plausible cases, why wouldn't I, as a wolf, just pick one and pretend to have conviction? This seems like the more natural course of action for me as a wolf; what's your theory behind why I'm doing something different?
5)
Yeah, funny, that. So in my most successful game as a wolf ever (only sweep win outside of turbos), I made all of 31 posts in the span of two game days, a decent number of which weren't particularly good or helpful, including gems likeI read the one newbie scumgame you played on site where half your ISO was feedback to the town. The town game I read was Quaroth's game which went on forever with multiple no lynches. You were obviously town in the latter. In the former, the way you offered feedback, and how you talked about hating your losses so much that it forces you to become a better player showed me how thoughtful and determined you are to improve. In any case, that's not a reason why I'm seeing you as scum. It's just why I don't find your *effort* indicative of alignment.I think that we should all agree not to have any quick CC's against anything Vandit claims. Beyond that I'd rather not discuss the specifics of what should be countered and why until after he actually claims.
FWIW, games on this site are usually a good deal livelier than this one has been the last few days.yeah basically my point. this game state is unusual, so please don't think it's usually like this.Might as well give him the chance though. 24 hour notice of intent to vote, EVEN IF IT IS A HAMMER. Defend and/or claim in that time period. If anyone here thinks I should give more than 24 hours, I'm willing to discuss an extension, but only with good reason.This is LYLO. NO ONE QUICK VOTE.No quick voting please. Discussion is good. I want to go back and re read and figure things out. Will have more thoughts later.
etc. Like, when I'm town I am actually interested in solving the game's puzzle, and as a wolf I'm not and often don't really put all that much effort into pretending to be (just like I didn't put all that much effort in during that game, but fortunately was able to stand back and watch the town just implode).Are we popcorning or just in whatever order?
Also please no quick voting.
Now, if I'm a wolf then this game would be different in that I've attracted some pushback and would have had to be more active (plus if I'm a wolf I'd be flying solo at this point). But I guess the question here would be, do you really think this is more similar to my wolf meta than my town meta? And if so, why?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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So what about it reads fake in particular? You're arguing that the post itself reads like he was lying about not knowing the VC; what about his tone or wording seems fake?In post 2037, Tenshii wrote:
Lean fake yeah.In post 2036, mhsmith0 wrote:seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?
Also, what do you think of that as an excuse not to vote, given the realistic chance that someone (whether the mod or just another player) would simply tell him who was voting for karnos? That seems like a really strange excuse to make to put off voting for a buddy, and one which had high risk of getting exposed as a lie. What makes you think that a buddy would even try such a ploy in that situation when it seems to be low reward and high risk?
So you've already conceded that the interaction from karnos's end doesn't seem consistent with w/w; based on that concession, it seems like you'd need a really strong reason to think that KC's side of it was fake. Please expand on this, since it seems like an important part of your read, especially given what you just said about what karnos said.
I don't think Karnos would say that to buddy. In regards to that challenge, I only think KC's reaction to it was bad.In post 2036, mhsmith0 wrote:Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?
How do you think Thor isn't a clear town read? I've been pretty clear throughout the game that he was my strongest town read. What exactly have I done that makes you think that I'm trying to set up for a Thor lynch? Given how clear I've been on my Thor town read this seems like a strategy that is particularly poor for me to take as a wolf, to have to reverse my stated town read and try and sell that as somehow genuine.
Yeah why not? It's not like it's a clear town read in the first place. Also I think if you're scum then this is you setting up for a Thor lynch after I get lynched.In post 2036, mhsmith0 wrote:Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at viewtopic.php?p=8250571#p8250571
Like, I could maybe see the argument that you think that I have Thor pocketed and am trying to manipulate him, but to actively try and get him mislynched? Given everything I'd said about him during the game, including my reinforcing of that read given the interactions stuff? That's a pretty non-sensical strategy on my end if I'm the last wolf. Why do you think that this is what I'm actually trying to do?
Well, really towns win when wolves fail at simulating being town. But this seems like a pretty weak argument on your end if all you have is that I'm trying to simulate a town process. How can you tell that apart from the idea that I'm posting this because I'm actually town and my process is actually a town process?
Well yeah wolf can simulate being town. That's how town generally wins in the first place.In post 2036, mhsmith0 wrote:I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Page 33 was where karnos got lynched. Why do you think it's not worthwhile to read the day of a wolf lynch?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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^flipped. Hammer was earlier.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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KShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Maria, how much of the game have you read so far?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Is that true of transcend regardless of alignment, or do you consider that an alignment tell for him?In post 2088, MariaR wrote:...
Oh really? That's a relief I assumed I was heavy sr because transcend normally doesn't sr people unless others do
@smith 3 pages.
I plan on reading the whole day 1 tonight when I get a breakShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Some are, some aren't. If you're talking bout basic "town slips" and the like, yeah, wolves can do that. If you're talking about an overall approach to the game, interactions with flipped wolves etc, that's harder to fake. Like, the interactions with karnos are highly clearing for Luna/Wing, giga, and especially (IMO) Thor. By itself that sets up a pretty decent PoE from my end of Trans, ross/Maria, and Tenshii, to the point where I really only feel like I need to knock out one of those into the town pile and it's pretty close to a locked game. Currently my thought is that the one is Trans.In post 2175, Transcend wrote:
Town hunting is bad because scum are highly capable of town telling. >:(In post 2172, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:tbh i don't really scumread anyone (besides krinkles) this game, i'm really starting to think townhunting is more my style
i just see rosske and tenshii as... less town than everyone else?
Speaking of which, maria, you claim you have a lot of meta with Trans (I'd presume much more than anyone else has on him). What's your current thoughts on him?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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What in particular makes you think this is his town meta? I get the same sense as well but since you have more meta on him I want to get what you're seeing on that front.In post 2175, Transcend wrote:
Town hunting is bad because scum are highly capable of town telling. >:(In post 2172, gigabyteTroubadour wrote:tbh i don't really scumread anyone (besides krinkles) this game, i'm really starting to think townhunting is more my style
i just see rosske and tenshii as... less town than everyone else?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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FYI wing has been site banned. Not sure what replace status is.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Good luck with that
Trains (and maybe gig) you have experience w Maria. Ignoring rosske for a minute, what do you think of her specifically? Currently my PoE is down to her and tenshii, trying to decide which one is likelier as the wolf.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I just have an incredibly hard time seeing how it isn't tenshii or Maria here. I lean slightly towards Maria at this point, but even if I'm in the PoE I think that this set wins like 80% of the time.
VOTE: mariaShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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It's l-1 unless mod missed someone voting for her.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Intent on yourself? Why?In post 2264, Tenshii wrote:Intent to hammerShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Gig switched to Maria she's at l-2 I think.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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^Switched from MariaShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I think like a day and a half leftShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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It's be nice if that was a surrender + troll but I doubt it based on her posts
Probably it's just tenshii then I guess. At least tomorrow we'll get one fewer player to tinfoil over.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Btw if u guys like to play my together why not just queue in the normal/open/micro queues? I actually think it's nice NOT to play w people you know in newbies.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I actually dislike matrix6. I like the matrix concept but I feel like only half (both jk setups, plus doc+tracker) are both fun and balanced. Cop setups are swingy esp doc/rb, and tracker/bp is mechanically scum sided compared to the others since there's no real cost to wolves to knock out the bp and make the game evens.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@thor: talk about your 's in 2325? I'm not sure what you're getting at with those. Also, what's the point of asking Maria those questions after she was already hammered?
@gig: getting town read is playing to win con regardless of your alignment (with the occasional exception of a PR hiding out in the null zone I guess, although even then I'd say it's better to be TR). I suspect thor's emoticon was skepticism about Transcend being a clear town read, although he'll have to clarify that one way or the other.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Partially gut, and partially because I got a wolfy sense from some of Maria's posts. Some of it I think was that it seemed like she was kinda giving up, which I'd see as being consistent with someone who subbed into a scumspect slot with three lynches to go (the "lynch me now or never" bit, even if it was offhand, struck me as highly consistent with the attitude a wolf subbing in might take, basically if she's gonna die make it quick so she doesn't have to fight hard just to live a little bit longer but still lose after investing in the game). I also suspected that her quick recognition of her being a suspect came more from seeing Rosske bitching about being a suspect in wolf chat than from really reading the thread
PS I'd still say that Rosske subbing out was NAI, but NAI doesn't mean town-indicative, it just means that if he was a wolf it meant personal issues of some sort... if he subbed out for strategic reasons as last wolf that should have been a mod kill pretty much always because that's disgusting to hand that position to someone else just because you don't want to try to recover it.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@Ira: you still in the middle of your first read through or is this as you read along? wrt KC, what's your thoughts on the discussion on page 82, starting 2026? And is this specific scum-reading me/trans or is this more of a PoE thing?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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what changed your mind on both me and tenshii?
also i'd suggest reading the thread at least once start to finish over the next few days; some players won't bother after subbing in (cough, cough, thor) but I think it's good practice to develop informed opinions. ISO's can give you a general sense of what a player is saying, but you'll pretty commonly miss context, especially for players who generally don't quote things they're responding to (as well as quick shot back and forth conversations).Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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1) Why would I need or want to rush in that situation? There wasn't a rapid push to lynch karnos; indeed, after the lynch Thor was complaining about how hard it was (in the context of questioning why people suddenly seemed sure of a red flip). In that position, if I'm the last wolf if anything I'd want to be careful to make sure my hop on looks real since bussing is a thing and people get suspicious of it.In post 2349, iraonavp wrote:
This sounds like he knows that karnos is scum-aligned... If I was in that situation, I would not even consider that he could be lying, not make overly wordy explanation like he's uninformed.In post 679, mhsmith0 wrote:I have no problem w that. Assuming karnos is town (which is not certain; his "lynch io tomorrow" twilight post is easy to make as a wolf regardless of io alignment), then we will be a step behind. Fortunately there are no nk's until n3.
Ps for the record, a good townie response by karnos would basically be to spam his reads and make sure he gives us as much info as he can. If he was simply being annoyed or something, it's explainable but not optimal. So it'd be nice if karnos spammed twilight w thoughts/reads, if he was town. It's really be nice if he was a wolf, though obviously I wouldn't expect it in that case.
It also looks like a bus from how he just moves from Luna Fox to karnos suddenly, then discredits his own read on Luna Fox. I think he was rushing to make sure that he was on the wagon.
2) Why do you find it non-credible that I simply took the time to re-read the thread in more detail and changed my mind after carefully going through the back and forth between thor, io, and karnos?
How is 808 leading? This was post karnos flip, Transcend was expressing a Rosske wolf read, and I asked him whether, now knowing that karnos was a goon, if the read still made sense given that knowledge.
This doesn't seem genuine opinion on someone who claimed that they were town-aligned, and he is contradicting himself here because he was assuming that karnos was town-aligned before... It doesn't even make sense to say this if he thinks karnos is scum-aligned. This post is the actual scum-aligned theater! The reasons he gives for why karnos is scum-aligned seem like confirmation bias and he has too much information.In post 734, mhsmith0 wrote:Fwiw I'd laugh my ass of post game if this whole back and forth was scum theater between two people who know a town flip is coming. Since I think odds are decent of karnos flipping red, not any kind of priority right now though.
A lot of the questions he asks, like 808 and 876, seem very leading and like he is afraid and walking on eggshells. Especially how he just writes a request and then puts a question mark at the end, very scum-aligned...
Ditto 876? Gig said
and I was questioning it. What about that reads suspicious to you? Do you think I'm just making a posturing question? Trying to manipulate giga somehow? I read that as a fairly obvious request for more information about the read and what drove it; what pings you here?How does it feel to be practically conftown to me?
How? I'm expressing suspicion of KTS, and explaining why I'm suspicious. How does it sound like I'm talking to someone that I know is town? (obviously if I'm a wolf I'd know he's town, if it's merely that I suspect that he's town that'd be town-indicative since if I was a wolf I'd know).
This sounds like he is talking to someone he thinks is town-aligned.In post 1185, mhsmith0 wrote:
Except we have multiple mislynches we can afford before we lose. So while surviving is nice as town, it's not remotely necessary to win. As a wolf, on the other hand, survival is absolutely paramount. So if you're showing survivalistic tendencies, then yes that's suspicious. In this situation, it absolutely has to be.In post 1179, Killthestory wrote:because i know i'm not scum so i have to survive to prevent a mislynch?
how stupid can you be.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Ah, so you meant that I'm your #1 and tenshii hopped over transcend for your #2? Is that correct?In post 2350, iraonavp wrote:
What? I didn't change my mind...In post 2348, mhsmith0 wrote:what changed your mind on both me and tenshii?
also i'd suggest reading the thread at least once start to finish over the next few days; some players won't bother after subbing in (cough, cough, thor) but I think it's good practice to develop informed opinions. ISO's can give you a general sense of what a player is saying, but you'll pretty commonly miss context, especially for players who generally don't quote things they're responding to (as well as quick shot back and forth conversations).
I usually try to read the thread when I replace in, but there are 90 pages here... I might read it, depends if I have time. I do look at context when I see something important while I'm reading the ISOs, though!Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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1) preventing my mislynch is playing to wincon
2) What makes you think that I don't actually care about the answers? That seems like an accusation with evidence behind it, but here you're just stating it.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I'll be back on this game sometime later today or tomorrow (probably today) with more detailed thoughts. Sorry for delay.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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wrt the NK, I'd once again say that's not who I would have likely killed because
1) it makes me look bad since Ira was pushing on me
2) Ira's case on me was mediocre, I'd already started pushing back on it, and I'd be comfortable pushing back harder on him today
Basically wrt NK motive:
Last wolf = giga
Lots of options. Ira is a nice suggestive kill, with the added bonus of being a strong town read. OTOH, enough players are solidly in the PoE that he might be inclined to SPK Thor and throw a wrench into the game state, especially since at some point he's going to have to explain why he's still alive, and a weird kill before F5 is easier to hide than a weird kill before F3.
Last wolf = Thor
Would likely avoid shooting tenshii because both in PoE and validates one side of the fight. Probably the only player who gives serious consideration to killing me, both because it locks in a town read of him and because he's the only player who's seen me do consistently well in late game scenarios as town before, including the game that just finished. Likely kills ira or giga, though, and I'm not sure he really has a strong preference one way or the other.
Last wolf = transcend
Shoots in ira/giga just about always, the path to victory is to lynch two out of {me, thor, tenshii}. Off the cuff I don't think he'd have a strong preference between ira/giga. Might lean ira just because it's a suggestive kill.
Last wolf = tenshii
Shoots in ira/giga just about always (likely prefers to avoid shooting thor, for the same reason thor wouldn't want to shoot him), and the path to victory is to lynch two out of {me, thor, transcend}. I could see tenshii preferring to shoot giga instead of ira just to hope ira keeps pushing on me, and then maybe even takes the heat for it in F3, but with two lynches left, could easily swap the ira/giga order and then coast on the resulting suspicion against me.
Last wolf = me
If it's me, I'd be somewhat pot-committed to not shooting thor (even though I'm SPK'ing him instead of Io just about always), and would probably need to run {tenshii, transcend} exactly with MAYBE getting some F3 paranoia on thor. I'd probably just shoot giga there instead of ira, but frankly I'd have at least thought about killing ira for the WIFOM. I'd have also thought about shooting Thor for the WIFOM/SPK (and a Thor NK would validate Thor's tenshii case as being sincere and make today a likely tenshii lynch), but in most worlds I'm just shooting giga first as a low-info kill of a town read, letting thor/tenshii lynch each other first and maybe getting transcend in the bargain somewhere.
Anyway, I'm going to do a re-read and then some VCA at some point. Since the VC's have been wacky I'll have to do manual vote counts first. MAYBE today but likely tomorrow.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Why does it read heavily as town v town, and why Thor if you have to pick one?In post 2362, Transcend wrote:Thor vs. Tenshii reads heavily town vs. town. If I'm ever forced to lynch in that cross, I'm going with Thor.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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I'd skimmed that one. I do get the sense that it's different (I can dig a bit more for info), and frankly the fact that the person who knows Transcend best (Maria) seemed confident that he's town is I think indicative.
I'd also say that if it's Thor, then karnos played WAY better than it seemed on day one, because I don't see anything in karnos v thor that suggests scum theater there, and they talked to each other a LOT. IMO Thor is clear, giga is clear, and it's down to trans vs tenshii with it being tenshii very probably. If anyone wants to argue it's Thor, I want to know what in day one karnos v thor interactions looks fake. Because if you can't find anything, then I really struggle to see it as Thor. Like, Thor being alive is somewhat suspicious, sure, but I look at what KARNOS was posting and I simply can't see it as Thor unless there's evidence of karnos being capable of interacting a lot with a partner in thread and making it look good, where usually he basically ignores his partner(s).Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@trans: Like, just look at how often karnos is twisting what thor is saying, apparently trying to de-legitimize thor's argument/push. Does karnos do that to a wolf bro? Does anyone? Like, that's pretty advanced level play and incredibly difficult to get right. So either you think it's common (I disagree) or you think that karnos does this sort of play as a wolf (evidence required) or you think that karnos did NOT pull this off (evidence required). Otherwise the much more obvious conclusion is that karnos spewed Thor town.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Probably trans. Of course in that world I'd guess one of them votes me first, and then it's either game over or I simply have to argue against the one who voted me.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Why do you think that Thor would eat a bullet tonight when he hasn't the last two?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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just the scale/nature of the interactions between giga and karnos; karnos really does seem to have a strong meta of ignoring his partners in thread, and he didn't seem to do that with giga. would certainly reread more carefully to be sure in that world, but it seems unlikely and I don't see the wolf case on giga. Are you thinking that there is a case there?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Also, back on day one, it seemed like you were trying pretty hard to save karnos despite stating that he wasn't a town read of yours. What was driving that attempt?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@Tenshii: Also, on a totally different tack... let's say you are in fact the last wolf. Who would you have shot the last two nights and why?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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OK so what kind of "more info" were you looking for? His thoughts on other players? Multiple days of voting data? Something else?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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wrt NK's, once you're all alone, you have to pick it, so you can't rely on a partner. Why would you say that RNG'ing is a good thing? You have the potential to make some very sub-optimal kills if you do (for instance, killing off a player who could get mislynched, such as rosske). What's the advantage of RNG'ing in a game like this?
wrt D1, karnos himself was primarily arguing with Io/Thor, but he'd also been a major center of attention, with opinion sharply divided on him. I guess the question is, if getting more info is important, who would have been a better info lynch? PC, who'd been extremely inactive, seems like just about the worst potential info lynch, and that's the main person you were pushing D1, and was your EOD vote as well. If info is in fact important, why would that justify PC over karnos?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Actually I'd say that RNG itself is indicative of NK motive/process. Like, if I was the last wolf my options are constrained to town reads and strong players. The odds of my shooting a lurker inside the PoE like rosske is basically zero, because that gives up a very plausible mislynch. So if rosske had died, then the question becomes who'd have shot him, and it's basically down to people who don't have the experience to know what a good night shot is or someone who has a history of doing WIFOM type NK's.
Basically, if rosske had been shot N3, I'd have zeroed in on people who I figured didn't know what good night kills were, since htere was a tremendous cost to shooting there, both in terms of eliminating someone who was inside many peoples' PoE and in terms of eliminating someone who was NOT much of a thread presence.
PS in case you're curious,
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post275864
is an interesting analysis of NK motive in the first game I ever played as wolf (N1 I shot the cop, D2 I got lynched, this came from 4v1 next to last day, crunkus was in fact the last wolf, got lynched in F3)Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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