Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[mhsmith0]

K cool. Wrt rosske, it's conceivable he's the other goon but I don't think it's obvious at this point. I'll probably give a decent look through his (limited) meta as well if wing doesn't clarify his point there as well.

[mhsmith0]

Well, yeah, no ongoings. But rosske has two relatively short isos in finished games, one for each alignment.

[mhsmith0]

It's against the rules to cite or describe ongoing games, it's not against the rules to skim ongoings to refine your read, although few bother to go through that much effort when they can't even be explicit about what they're seeing.

[mhsmith0]

Why would scum!Karnos be scared of voting a town!Thor here?

And THAT is one of the big questions of the day I think. I think it's pretty decently suggestive of either Thor as a buddy or a buddy already on Thor, in which case the idea was to spread out votes and not bunch together in a sketchy looking way on a player there really wasn't a case against. NK motive is somewhat suggestive of not rosske, but I want to hear wings specific meta read justification first since he said meta was a meaningful part of the town read there.

[mhsmith0]

In response to people saying I voted opportunistically or without reason in day 1.

It's pretty much true. But it doesn't make me scum.

I didn't really have any strong reads on day 1. I jumped onto wagons and cast votes in order to apply pressure and see what would come back to me, in hopes of getting better reads. I wasn't voting for lynches as much as I was voting in search of information.

Totally get while you can scum read me for that, but that's what I was thinking. Part of my scum read on Transcend is in response to how quickly he snapped up scum-looking behavior from me.

So why do you think it's wolfy to hop on wolfy looking behavior? What in your mind would have been a proper town response to it?

[mhsmith0]

@tenshii: so the issue here is that, based on your read, rosske is either bad town or just a wolf. Like, lurking and non-participation are suspicious, but they're well within the range of bad town. So why in your mind has rosske jumped from bad/unhelpful town to actually being the last goon? I'd like to know how much of the case really boils down to "stuff that is bad town or wolf, and hey if we mislynch its not like we lose an active participating member", and how much is truly wolf-indicative.

[mhsmith0]

@rosske: what do you think of the meta read stated on you? Do you think it's a valid description of the difference between your town and scum game? Why or why not?

As far as a town v town tunnel goes, those can and do happen. If your case on transcend boils down to "he's tunneling me and I'm town" that's not much of a case.

And what are your reads on the rest of the field, and why? A lack of substantive participation has been a big knock on you this game. A good way to fix that is to start substantively participating.

[mhsmith0]

@wing: it's been a month so I don't remember that well, but I believe I read it through once before reading my role pm, and had a gut ping about Luna on my first read through.

You are correct that I didn't especially suspect karnos when I popped in. The reason it changed was I went back and carefully read the back and forths between him, Thor and io. My first take was Luna was opportunistically hopping on a mislynch wagon; only after I dug into it did I suspect karnos more. Had karnos flipped green I probably would have pushed harder on her d2; IIRC my twilight postings d1 suggested this (including suspicion of scum theater between kts and Luna).

As far as my read changing, I thought her content improved as the game continued, I liked her twilight d1 push on kts,etc. I'm not sure I can really put a finger on exactly where and when my read on her changed, though, at least not off the cuff.

Wrt passion, sometimes I feel really strongly about a case and pursue it with vigor, and sometimes I don't. What I'm usually trying to do is either find the best lynch or push the best lynch. When I'm not particularly sure, I'm much more in info-gathering mode (questioning, re-reading, etc). I'd say I didn't pursue the kts case with strong vigor, and I definitely didn't do that with PC since I didn't even vote him until after hammer, and even that was a "a majority shouldn't be ignored just because mod screwed up" vote. PC was a plausible wolf but by no means a lock; and I didn't treat him as if he was.

Ps http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8168308 was the more detailed case I'd made on karnos, and reflected my thought process at the time, but like I said, I figured the board wasn't interested in wall posts so I didn't bother posting it in detail until asked for later,

Pps I think transcends push on me wasn't obviously town or obviously wolf. I think it was a questionable push using lazy reading, which is suspicious but nothing like a smoking gun. My sense is youre suspicious of it, though; am I correct, and is that still the case?

[mhsmith0]

Yes. I'm trying to get some answers from rosske on other questions before I really react to your case though.

[mhsmith0]

I'm not going to re-read a 200 page-long ISO but key points that stuck out to me:

1) Mhsmith's case and jump onto Karnos is the only one out of everyone here that makes sense as a smooth hop onto a bus wagon. Everyone else has interactions that stick out in a way that is unlikely to be bussing (except Rosske but he has the nightkill going for him).

2) Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing.

When did I ask people this? Citations needed. I re-isod myself and I see myself challenging people who had town reads on karnos or were pushing elsewhere. Where did I ask "what they thought of the evidence against Karnos"?

3) Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim.

I didn't react because it was stupidly obvious as a fake out. Also precisely three people (Luna, trans, giga) reacted, and Luna's reaction was just a quick response to trans.

How is this even suggestive much less indicative?

4) Mhsmith's subtle push on Transcend after I outlined suspicion of him without explicitly agreeing with me and using information he had for months is a scummy positioning move.

How was my push subtle and representative of "positioning" as opposed to an actual effort to sort him? Do you think my vote and then unvote was fake? If so, what in that sequence pings you as being fake?

VOTE: Mhsmith

This is who I think will slip scum. There's no real reason I can find to townread him other than lots of effort but that's something I could see him doing as scum given how thorough and focused and determined to win he is in his other games regardless of alignment. I could see him kill outside Thor for the WIFOM and chaos.

Which of my wolf games gm have you read to make the determination that effort is not alignment indicative for me?

For that matter, which of my town games have you read to conclude that I'm consistently "thorough and focused and determined to win"?

[mhsmith0]

with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)

ANNNNNNND

VOTE: KTS

We real now

pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?

Also, you say "Why ask a townie with a short fuse and an erratic playstyle to hammer? Kcdaspot might as well have hammered there for all Karnos knew. ". Why would you presume karnos didn't know the vote count? This seems much likelier to be a fake attempt to project not knowing the vote count than a fake "I'll get my buddy to hammer" bit. Are you aware of a meta of karnos being clueless as to vote counts (iirc he was at like 4 votes then, WELL away from the hammer point)?

[mhsmith0]

A tactical replace out in this situation would be disgusting. I'm choosing to believe it's NAI by rosske.

[mhsmith0]

@trans: I'll talk more about rosske tonight.

@gig: Wrt luna, my recollection was her postings and engagement improved. For instance her early d2 rosske stuff looked natural and like she was actively working to clear townies, which in that spot isn't really how I'd expect a wolf to act. I can probably re-read and find more specific stuff if you're really curious about my read of her in particular.

[mhsmith0]

Actually...

@mod: please clarify your policy on the deadline given the replacement

[mhsmith0]

Rosske is subbing out, and until and unless the mod weighs in, I'm presuming that the deadline is frozen. I planned to pay more attention to him in particular, but given that he can't answer any questions (and who knows when the sub will come in and, presumably, participate), there's less that can be productively done there at the moment.

Anyway, since wing referenced Mini 1800 I went back and skimmed karnos's ISO. I notice there that he basically never engages his partners (at least not in terms of quoting or @ mentions - it's possible there are in-thread conversations that a quick ISO misses), except for a stretch where he was talking with one partner (Magna) about a bus of the third (Mathblade). This reinforces the conclusion that karnos's lack of engagement with partners is a meaningful part of his wolf meta. This further clears Thor, giga and Wing IMO, which FMPOV leads to a pretty likely PoE of Tenshii, Rosske, and Transcend. If you presume Transcend is town (and I'm increasingly reading him that way - it seems pretty clear that he believes that Rosske is the last wolf) then I think it's basically inside {Tenshii, Rosske}.

The problem I have is that (IMO) there isn't any kind of glaringly obvious single last wolf, which does make me suspect that I'm missing something important. Probably gonna do another read through over the weekend, since again I'm presuming deadline is frozen until a sub comes in. Some responses to wing coming in a bit.

[mhsmith0]

Actually...

VOTE: mhsmith0

The only thing I don't really agree with is how Karnos challenged kcdaspot. I don't really get why Karnos would attack his own partner like that. Other than that, everything adds up. kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.

Talk more about

kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo

Do you mean this sequence?

with that based on what ive seen its karnos and KTL for the scumteam secondary scummy reads on luna and GT (gut mainly)

ANNNNNNND

VOTE: KTS

We real now

pedit: now that you mention that and transcend is not far off of making the list either.

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

OHBOYOHBOYOHBOY KTS FRONT LIKE HE A SASSY LIL GIRL HE DONT KNOW HOW THIS REAL MUTHAHEFFE CAN SNATCH DEM WEAVES IN A INSTANT

karnos got the idea. hes still scummy thoo.and .... wtf KTS?

What in particular pings you about KC's reaction? Also, do you think that karnos's quote is how you'd expect one wolf to talk to another? Obviously there's a wide range of what wolves can do, but that's a weird interaction between wolves. It reminds me a lot more of what I saw in my most recent completed game...

Spoiler: BBT and me

VOTE: Kuroi

BBT, talk me through that kuroi vote. What convinced you to push there? I look at your ISO and literally the first time you even mentioned him was with that vote. Or, did something convince you thta Square was NOT a wolf?

Out of the two, Kuroi was the much better option.

If that's the case, why weren't you pushing for his lynch and outlining the case? I get that you're not responsible for the wagon on square going pretty fast, but at the same time, a naked vote isn't likely to actually get kuroi lynched or under serious pressure.

I have no influence on this game as of yet, so my pushing would have achieved nothing. I chose the wagon I thought was best.

I haven't had the time to put into this game that I would have liked. I still haven't read it properly.

Also, if you're looking for a way onto my wagon you don't have to beat around the bush.

Just hop straight on.

Nah i'm still asking questions. Probably gonna re-read the whole thread sometime over the weekend.

Like, I could have pushed for Kuroi and people would have asked why. Then I would have said 'I'm not sure really, just something about their posting doesn't sit right with me'. Then people would be skeptical because clearly I haven't read the game properly and can't back up my vote so it's perceived as a weak vote (which nobody would follow) and it probably kills momentum on the wagon instead of pushing it.

In that case, BBT was a wolf and I was town (incidentally, kuroi was also a wolf, but that's not particularly relevant for this comparison). I guess I'm curious why you (and wing for that matter) would look at that interaction and think w/w.

It's just weird for a wolf to just challenge his teammate to vote for him like that. It seems a lot more like an intended manipulation of "look at me, I'm willing to die, that makes me town" (or possibly "look at this guy not putting his vote where his mouth is" as a discrediting maneuver), with KC then falling for it (to some extent anyway - if nothing else it kept KC on KTS). Like, challenging a wolf bro in that situation with the intent to simulate a pocketing of a townie (or possibly a discrediting attempt), without day chat, is a maneuver that's potentially super risky (since the teammate can screw up that interaction in all sorts of ways, including having it simply just come across wrong). What makes you think that karnos is either capable of pulling that kind of maneuver off or even willing to try it? To me, that's simply not how I'd expect a wolf to talk to his teammate.

[mhsmith0]

It's still really weird I think that karnos never bothered making a meaningful survival move onto a different wagon, like Thor or PC, when there was reasonable chance to justify it. I guess he was trying to imitate townie stubbornness but it really didn't work.

It's also pretty annoying that we don't get VC's in order of voting, so it's kinda hard to unpack that way. I may try and pull one together that orders votes, but probably not ASAP.

Also this post initially rubbed me off the wrong way when I first saw it but it kinda makes sense now. mhsmith0 was trying to do an indirect attack on Thor. I think mhsmith0 would've pushed this harder as town. I don't understand why town!mhsmith0 brings it up like that without any followup.

It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.

I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).

Response?

[mhsmith0]

Smith, I've just realized you've been fairly neutral for today. Like you voted me for a bit and that was just for a bit. You haven't really finalized your reads from what i see. We are approaching deadline so i wanna know from you if you had to take 3 shots at one duck in this game, what would they be?

Currently, Tenshii, Rosske, and MAYBE you. Really not sure on the third, but I feel pretty decent about the town reads on giga, wing and thor.

[mhsmith0]

@wing: When have you seen karnos interact with a buddy in this manner? You've discussed his "bussing meta"; where have you seen him challenge a buddy to vote him like this?

I never said I specifically saw him challenge a buddy to vote.

I think it's less likely he would bait a town player into voting him than a partner.

I have no idea why you would think this. What's your experience seeing wolves challenging other players to vote for them and/or calling them out for not having already done so? Can you think of any examples where such an interaction is wolf/wolf? I just popped out one that was town/wolf from the very last game I finished, and while that's a sample size of exactly one, I'm highly curious if you can provide any good examples of a similar interaction being wolf/wolf.

[mhsmith0]

In summary, this guy has a decent chance of flipping scum and I don't want him around in LYLO. Percentage-wise, I'd say 35% each on Rosske/mhsmith. 10% each on Transcend/Gigabyte, and 5% each on Thor/Tenshii. Lynching him over mhsmith makes sense given how thoughtful and interested in solving the game mhsmith is and leaving around someone like Rosske in lylo isn't something that I'm okay with.

I'll try and re-read Rosske's ISO (it's short enough so shouldn't take too long) and try and nail down an mhsmith read tonight. Unless something super-scummy pops up, I'll vote Rosske. Otherwise, I'll vote mhsmith.

@Wingback: talk about what exactly pinged you in the re-read that you hadn't already been aware of? You voted me 20 minutes after posting the above, which seems like an awfully quick turnaround from your previous "I'm planning on voting rosske" bit. It seems like your big evidence point was the "baiting" bit, which is a strange piece of evidence to base a major swing in read, both because I don't see how it's actually wolf-indicative and because it was very obviously not a hammer position if karnos was paying meaningful attention to the thread at that point (which I'd guess he was).

[mhsmith0]

kcdaspot's reaction to Karnos challenging him was pretty bad too imo. kcdaspot responded late (idk if that's necessarily indicative though) and had a poor reason of needing an updated vote count when it (i think) was pretty obvious that Karnos had way more momentum to get lynched.

kcdaspot basically ignored it in his first post after Karnos challenged him. (Where I thought he ignored) then after Kcdaspot replies to Karnos with VC update being necessary.

I more or less agree with the latter half of your 2026.

Except KC didn't ignore it, and you now see this, is that correct? Also, what makes you think that KC wasn't simply inside of a tunnel of KTS? His follow-up

not totally my style. i can but when this guy is just posting like THIS? i cant... i cant just let this go.

to karnos: im waiting for the mod to get in here for a VC before i act on you anyway. gotta see who on that wagon. plus THIS GUY IM ON RIGHT NOW. I CANT JUST LET HIM GO.

seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?

Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?

It's an interesting data point, just like the NK, where we have an action that we KNOW came from a wolf. Why do you think it's indicative for me to de-emphasize this particular point while emphasizing the NK in particular? If your theory is that I'm just trying to throw dirt on Thor, then there's a point of suspicion either from "why is Thor alive" or "why didn't karnos try to survive". Your theory seems to be that my de-emphasizing one point is wolf-indicative, even though what actually happened was that i ended up spending more time on the other point, which in your world also is just throwing dirt on thor.

I don't see how my choice to spend more time on one point instead of the other is remotely indicative on me, using "how does this impact Thor" as a framework. I DO, however, see this choice as potentially indicative on me if "how does this impact Tenshii" is the framework instead, since my choice to look more at NK motive and less at the voting pattern implicates Tenshii relatively more, and Transcend relatively less (both Thor and Rosske are implicated in either set).

Response?

Can you quote where you attacked/elaborated on Thor being alive? Iirc you never attacked/pressured Thor for it.

Also do you have any questions for me mhsmith0?

Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8250571

I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.

[mhsmith0]

Btw Wing's page 80 is basically what convinced me. But mhsmith0

hasn't

has refuted much of it

I Fixed Your post. Specific refutations include:

1) The discussion about the "baiting" post

2) The "KTS scumclaim" reaction bit. Only two players had any meaningful reaction there, out of the seven currently alive (Luna barely reacted, and even that just makes seven), which means that

Mhsmith is one of the few that doesn't react to the KTS scumclaim

is factually inaccurate.

3)

Mhsmith asking people what they thought of the evidence against Karnos is something I've seen scum do before when they are last-minute bussing

is a STRETCH of what actually happened. He cited one instance, not mulitple, and even that was buried inside a post challenging someone (Transcend) about the stated karnos town read. This wasn't a vague or soft "what do you think of the evidence", this was a challenge to Transcend to justify his town read in the fact of a pretty weak and unsupported meta that Transcend himself used as evidence, when weighed against what everyone else had argued. I utterly fail to see how that's wolf-indicative and so should you.

and while we're at it...
4)

The unvote looked fake because it showed that your vote lacked conviction. I find many scum are more likely to not push an aggressive town player and to unvote more easily in the face of aggression because they are afraid that other townies will see it as obvtown and they're left with a stale vote hanging there. Not all scum players do this. For instance, I wouldn't expect Transcend or Thor to back down so easily. But you fit the profile of analytical scum who has trouble faking overt conviction in your pushes.

@Wing:
So I, as a wolf, backed down in the face of Transcend's continued aggression towards a different player (Rosske) and insistence upon Rosske's lynch even in the face of his own potential lynch? This seems a lot more like a town player who is simply unsure of what the correct lynch is, and is actively trying to figure it out. What makes you think that I'm not? Given the array of realistically plausible cases, why wouldn't I, as a wolf, just pick one and pretend to have conviction? This seems like the more natural course of action for me as a wolf; what's your theory behind why I'm doing something different?

5)

I read the one newbie scumgame you played on site where half your ISO was feedback to the town. The town game I read was Quaroth's game which went on forever with multiple no lynches. You were obviously town in the latter. In the former, the way you offered feedback, and how you talked about hating your losses so much that it forces you to become a better player showed me how thoughtful and determined you are to improve. In any case, that's not a reason why I'm seeing you as scum. It's just why I don't find your *effort* indicative of alignment.

Yeah, funny, that. So in my most successful game as a wolf ever (only sweep win outside of turbos), I made all of 31 posts in the span of two game days, a decent number of which weren't particularly good or helpful, including gems like

I think that we should all agree not to have any quick CC's against anything Vandit claims. Beyond that I'd rather not discuss the specifics of what should be countered and why until after he actually claims.

FWIW, games on this site are usually a good deal livelier than this one has been the last few days.

yeah basically my point. this game state is unusual, so please don't think it's usually like this.

Might as well give him the chance though. 24 hour notice of intent to vote, EVEN IF IT IS A HAMMER. Defend and/or claim in that time period. If anyone here thinks I should give more than 24 hours, I'm willing to discuss an extension, but only with good reason.

This is LYLO. NO ONE QUICK VOTE.

No quick voting please. Discussion is good. I want to go back and re read and figure things out. Will have more thoughts later.

Are we popcorning or just in whatever order?
Also please no quick voting.

etc. Like, when I'm town I am actually interested in solving the game's puzzle, and as a wolf I'm not and often don't really put all that much effort into pretending to be (just like I didn't put all that much effort in during that game, but fortunately was able to stand back and watch the town just implode).

Now, if I'm a wolf then this game would be different in that I've attracted some pushback and would have had to be more active (plus if I'm a wolf I'd be flying solo at this point). But I guess the question here would be, do you really think this is more similar to my wolf meta than my town meta? And if so, why?

[mhsmith0]

seems pretty consistent with that viewpoint, for instance. Like, do you not think it's believable that someone who seemed to only bother to do one read-through of the thread before getting into things wouldn't have bothered to remember who was voting for who? If he was a wolf, then he'd probably be aware of who was on karnos and was just faking this note. Do you think it's fake? Or do you think that he, as a wolf, would simply not bother to keep track of who's voting his buddy?

Lean fake yeah.

So what about it reads fake in particular? You're arguing that the post itself reads like he was lying about not knowing the VC; what about his tone or wording seems fake?

Also, what do you think of that as an excuse not to vote, given the realistic chance that someone (whether the mod or just another player) would simply tell him who was voting for karnos? That seems like a really strange excuse to make to put off voting for a buddy, and one which had high risk of getting exposed as a lie. What makes you think that a buddy would even try such a ploy in that situation when it seems to be low reward and high risk?

Also, to be clear, you agree that the original note was a very weird thing for karnos to say to his buddy? But you still think it was something that karnos did in fact say to his buddy?

I don't think Karnos would say that to buddy. In regards to that challenge, I only think KC's reaction to it was bad.

So you've already conceded that the interaction from karnos's end doesn't seem consistent with w/w; based on that concession, it seems like you'd need a really strong reason to think that KC's side of it was fake. Please expand on this, since it seems like an important part of your read, especially given what you just said about what karnos said.

Is it your opinion that I should have been directly attacking him with it, even though I had an overall town read, and other data (including the number and quality of interactions between Thor and karnos) made Thor look very town? I touched base on my opinion on thor wrt that info at viewtopic.php?p=8250571#p8250571

Yeah why not? It's not like it's a clear town read in the first place. Also I think if you're scum then this is you setting up for a Thor lynch after I get lynched.

How do you think Thor isn't a clear town read? I've been pretty clear throughout the game that he was my strongest town read. What exactly have I done that makes you think that I'm trying to set up for a Thor lynch? Given how clear I've been on my Thor town read this seems like a strategy that is particularly poor for me to take as a wolf, to have to reverse my stated town read and try and sell that as somehow genuine.

Like, I could maybe see the argument that you think that I have Thor pocketed and am trying to manipulate him, but to actively try and get him mislynched? Given everything I'd said about him during the game, including my reinforcing of that read given the interactions stuff? That's a pretty non-sensical strategy on my end if I'm the last wolf. Why do you think that this is what I'm actually trying to do?

I also discussed the implications of the NK (as I saw it) fairly extensively; look at my ISO between 1649 and 1763. I've also been discussing other info, including interactions (most notably at 1830), VCA, etc. I'm putting information into the thread, and pretty openly working through the implications as I see them. Why do you think this is wolf-indicative of me? Am I just trying to simulate a town process? Am I trying to do something actively pro-wolf? If you think I'm the goon here, I want to know why exactly you think this.

Well yeah wolf can simulate being town. That's how town generally wins in the first place.

Well, really towns win when wolves fail at simulating being town. But this seems like a pretty weak argument on your end if all you have is that I'm trying to simulate a town process. How can you tell that apart from the idea that I'm posting this because I'm actually town and my process is actually a town process?

[mhsmith0]

Page 33 was where karnos got lynched. Why do you think it's not worthwhile to read the day of a wolf lynch?

[mhsmith0]

^flipped. Hammer was earlier.

[mhsmith0]

K

[mhsmith0]

Maria, how much of the game have you read so far?

[mhsmith0]

...
Oh really? That's a relief I assumed I was heavy sr because transcend normally doesn't sr people unless others do

@smith 3 pages.

I plan on reading the whole day 1 tonight when I get a break

Is that true of transcend regardless of alignment, or do you consider that an alignment tell for him?

[mhsmith0]

tbh i don't really scumread anyone (besides krinkles) this game, i'm really starting to think townhunting is more my style

i just see rosske and tenshii as... less town than everyone else?

Town hunting is bad because scum are highly capable of town telling. >:(

Some are, some aren't. If you're talking bout basic "town slips" and the like, yeah, wolves can do that. If you're talking about an overall approach to the game, interactions with flipped wolves etc, that's harder to fake. Like, the interactions with karnos are highly clearing for Luna/Wing, giga, and especially (IMO) Thor. By itself that sets up a pretty decent PoE from my end of Trans, ross/Maria, and Tenshii, to the point where I really only feel like I need to knock out one of those into the town pile and it's pretty close to a locked game. Currently my thought is that the one is Trans.

Speaking of which, maria, you claim you have a lot of meta with Trans (I'd presume much more than anyone else has on him). What's your current thoughts on him?

[mhsmith0]

tbh i don't really scumread anyone (besides krinkles) this game, i'm really starting to think townhunting is more my style

i just see rosske and tenshii as... less town than everyone else?

Town hunting is bad because scum are highly capable of town telling. >:(

What in particular makes you think this is his town meta? I get the same sense as well but since you have more meta on him I want to get what you're seeing on that front.

[mhsmith0]

FYI wing has been site banned. Not sure what replace status is.

[mhsmith0]

Good luck with that

Trains (and maybe gig) you have experience w Maria. Ignoring rosske for a minute, what do you think of her specifically? Currently my PoE is down to her and tenshii, trying to decide which one is likelier as the wolf.

[mhsmith0]

I just have an incredibly hard time seeing how it isn't tenshii or Maria here. I lean slightly towards Maria at this point, but even if I'm in the PoE I think that this set wins like 80% of the time.

VOTE: maria

[mhsmith0]

It's l-1 unless mod missed someone voting for her.

[mhsmith0]

Intent to hammer

Intent on yourself? Why?

[mhsmith0]

Gig switched to Maria she's at l-2 I think.

[mhsmith0]

^Switched from Maria

[mhsmith0]

I think like a day and a half left

[mhsmith0]

It's be nice if that was a surrender + troll but I doubt it based on her posts

Probably it's just tenshii then I guess. At least tomorrow we'll get one fewer player to tinfoil over.

[mhsmith0]

Btw if u guys like to play my together why not just queue in the normal/open/micro queues? I actually think it's nice NOT to play w people you know in newbies.

[mhsmith0]

I actually dislike matrix6. I like the matrix concept but I feel like only half (both jk setups, plus doc+tracker) are both fun and balanced. Cop setups are swingy esp doc/rb, and tracker/bp is mechanically scum sided compared to the others since there's no real cost to wolves to knock out the bp and make the game evens.

[mhsmith0]

@thor: talk about your 's in 2325? I'm not sure what you're getting at with those. Also, what's the point of asking Maria those questions after she was already hammered?

@gig: getting town read is playing to win con regardless of your alignment (with the occasional exception of a PR hiding out in the null zone I guess, although even then I'd say it's better to be TR). I suspect thor's emoticon was skepticism about Transcend being a clear town read, although he'll have to clarify that one way or the other.

[mhsmith0]

Partially gut, and partially because I got a wolfy sense from some of Maria's posts. Some of it I think was that it seemed like she was kinda giving up, which I'd see as being consistent with someone who subbed into a scumspect slot with three lynches to go (the "lynch me now or never" bit, even if it was offhand, struck me as highly consistent with the attitude a wolf subbing in might take, basically if she's gonna die make it quick so she doesn't have to fight hard just to live a little bit longer but still lose after investing in the game). I also suspected that her quick recognition of her being a suspect came more from seeing Rosske bitching about being a suspect in wolf chat than from really reading the thread

PS I'd still say that Rosske subbing out was NAI, but NAI doesn't mean town-indicative, it just means that if he was a wolf it meant personal issues of some sort... if he subbed out for strategic reasons as last wolf that should have been a mod kill pretty much always because that's disgusting to hand that position to someone else just because you don't want to try to recover it.

[mhsmith0]

@Ira: you still in the middle of your first read through or is this as you read along? wrt KC, what's your thoughts on the discussion on page 82, starting 2026? And is this specific scum-reading me/trans or is this more of a PoE thing?

[mhsmith0]

what changed your mind on both me and tenshii?

also i'd suggest reading the thread at least once start to finish over the next few days; some players won't bother after subbing in (cough, cough, thor) but I think it's good practice to develop informed opinions. ISO's can give you a general sense of what a player is saying, but you'll pretty commonly miss context, especially for players who generally don't quote things they're responding to (as well as quick shot back and forth conversations).

[mhsmith0]

I have no problem w that. Assuming karnos is town (which is not certain; his "lynch io tomorrow" twilight post is easy to make as a wolf regardless of io alignment), then we will be a step behind. Fortunately there are no nk's until n3.

Ps for the record, a good townie response by karnos would basically be to spam his reads and make sure he gives us as much info as he can. If he was simply being annoyed or something, it's explainable but not optimal. So it'd be nice if karnos spammed twilight w thoughts/reads, if he was town. It's really be nice if he was a wolf, though obviously I wouldn't expect it in that case.

This sounds like he knows that karnos is scum-aligned... If I was in that situation, I would not even consider that he could be lying, not make overly wordy explanation like he's uninformed.

It also looks like a bus from how he just moves from Luna Fox to karnos suddenly, then discredits his own read on Luna Fox. I think he was rushing to make sure that he was on the wagon.

1) Why would I need or want to rush in that situation? There wasn't a rapid push to lynch karnos; indeed, after the lynch Thor was complaining about how hard it was (in the context of questioning why people suddenly seemed sure of a red flip). In that position, if I'm the last wolf if anything I'd want to be careful to make sure my hop on looks real since bussing is a thing and people get suspicious of it.

2) Why do you find it non-credible that I simply took the time to re-read the thread in more detail and changed my mind after carefully going through the back and forth between thor, io, and karnos?

Fwiw I'd laugh my ass of post game if this whole back and forth was scum theater between two people who know a town flip is coming. Since I think odds are decent of karnos flipping red, not any kind of priority right now though.

This doesn't seem genuine opinion on someone who claimed that they were town-aligned, and he is contradicting himself here because he was assuming that karnos was town-aligned before... It doesn't even make sense to say this if he thinks karnos is scum-aligned. This post is the actual scum-aligned theater! The reasons he gives for why karnos is scum-aligned seem like confirmation bias and he has too much information.

A lot of the questions he asks, like 808 and 876, seem very leading and like he is afraid and walking on eggshells. Especially how he just writes a request and then puts a question mark at the end, very scum-aligned...

How is 808 leading? This was post karnos flip, Transcend was expressing a Rosske wolf read, and I asked him whether, now knowing that karnos was a goon, if the read still made sense given that knowledge.

Ditto 876? Gig said

How does it feel to be practically conftown to me?

and I was questioning it. What about that reads suspicious to you? Do you think I'm just making a posturing question? Trying to manipulate giga somehow? I read that as a fairly obvious request for more information about the read and what drove it; what pings you here?

because i know i'm not scum so i have to survive to prevent a mislynch?

how stupid can you be.

Except we have multiple mislynches we can afford before we lose. So while surviving is nice as town, it's not remotely necessary to win. As a wolf, on the other hand, survival is absolutely paramount. So if you're showing survivalistic tendencies, then yes that's suspicious. In this situation, it absolutely has to be.

This sounds like he is talking to someone he thinks is town-aligned.

How? I'm expressing suspicion of KTS, and explaining why I'm suspicious. How does it sound like I'm talking to someone that I know is town? (obviously if I'm a wolf I'd know he's town, if it's merely that I suspect that he's town that'd be town-indicative since if I was a wolf I'd know).

[mhsmith0]

what changed your mind on both me and tenshii?

also i'd suggest reading the thread at least once start to finish over the next few days; some players won't bother after subbing in (cough, cough, thor) but I think it's good practice to develop informed opinions. ISO's can give you a general sense of what a player is saying, but you'll pretty commonly miss context, especially for players who generally don't quote things they're responding to (as well as quick shot back and forth conversations).

What? I didn't change my mind...

I usually try to read the thread when I replace in, but there are 90 pages here... I might read it, depends if I have time. I do look at context when I see something important while I'm reading the ISOs, though!

Ah, so you meant that I'm your #1 and tenshii hopped over transcend for your #2? Is that correct?

[mhsmith0]

1) preventing my mislynch is playing to wincon
2) What makes you think that I don't actually care about the answers? That seems like an accusation with evidence behind it, but here you're just stating it.

[mhsmith0]

I'll be back on this game sometime later today or tomorrow (probably today) with more detailed thoughts. Sorry for delay.

[mhsmith0]

wrt the NK, I'd once again say that's not who I would have likely killed because
1) it makes me look bad since Ira was pushing on me
2) Ira's case on me was mediocre, I'd already started pushing back on it, and I'd be comfortable pushing back harder on him today

Basically wrt NK motive:

Last wolf = giga
Lots of options. Ira is a nice suggestive kill, with the added bonus of being a strong town read. OTOH, enough players are solidly in the PoE that he might be inclined to SPK Thor and throw a wrench into the game state, especially since at some point he's going to have to explain why he's still alive, and a weird kill before F5 is easier to hide than a weird kill before F3.

Last wolf = Thor
Would likely avoid shooting tenshii because both in PoE and validates one side of the fight. Probably the only player who gives serious consideration to killing me, both because it locks in a town read of him and because he's the only player who's seen me do consistently well in late game scenarios as town before, including the game that just finished. Likely kills ira or giga, though, and I'm not sure he really has a strong preference one way or the other.

Last wolf = transcend
Shoots in ira/giga just about always, the path to victory is to lynch two out of {me, thor, tenshii}. Off the cuff I don't think he'd have a strong preference between ira/giga. Might lean ira just because it's a suggestive kill.

Last wolf = tenshii
Shoots in ira/giga just about always (likely prefers to avoid shooting thor, for the same reason thor wouldn't want to shoot him), and the path to victory is to lynch two out of {me, thor, transcend}. I could see tenshii preferring to shoot giga instead of ira just to hope ira keeps pushing on me, and then maybe even takes the heat for it in F3, but with two lynches left, could easily swap the ira/giga order and then coast on the resulting suspicion against me.

Last wolf = me
If it's me, I'd be somewhat pot-committed to not shooting thor (even though I'm SPK'ing him instead of Io just about always), and would probably need to run {tenshii, transcend} exactly with MAYBE getting some F3 paranoia on thor. I'd probably just shoot giga there instead of ira, but frankly I'd have at least thought about killing ira for the WIFOM. I'd have also thought about shooting Thor for the WIFOM/SPK (and a Thor NK would validate Thor's tenshii case as being sincere and make today a likely tenshii lynch), but in most worlds I'm just shooting giga first as a low-info kill of a town read, letting thor/tenshii lynch each other first and maybe getting transcend in the bargain somewhere.

Anyway, I'm going to do a re-read and then some VCA at some point. Since the VC's have been wacky I'll have to do manual vote counts first. MAYBE today but likely tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

Thor vs. Tenshii reads heavily town vs. town. If I'm ever forced to lynch in that cross, I'm going with Thor.

Why does it read heavily as town v town, and why Thor if you have to pick one?

[mhsmith0]

I'd skimmed that one. I do get the sense that it's different (I can dig a bit more for info), and frankly the fact that the person who knows Transcend best (Maria) seemed confident that he's town is I think indicative.

I'd also say that if it's Thor, then karnos played WAY better than it seemed on day one, because I don't see anything in karnos v thor that suggests scum theater there, and they talked to each other a LOT. IMO Thor is clear, giga is clear, and it's down to trans vs tenshii with it being tenshii very probably. If anyone wants to argue it's Thor, I want to know what in day one karnos v thor interactions looks fake. Because if you can't find anything, then I really struggle to see it as Thor. Like, Thor being alive is somewhat suspicious, sure, but I look at what KARNOS was posting and I simply can't see it as Thor unless there's evidence of karnos being capable of interacting a lot with a partner in thread and making it look good, where usually he basically ignores his partner(s).

[mhsmith0]

@trans: Like, just look at how often karnos is twisting what thor is saying, apparently trying to de-legitimize thor's argument/push. Does karnos do that to a wolf bro? Does anyone? Like, that's pretty advanced level play and incredibly difficult to get right. So either you think it's common (I disagree) or you think that karnos does this sort of play as a wolf (evidence required) or you think that karnos did NOT pull this off (evidence required). Otherwise the much more obvious conclusion is that karnos spewed Thor town.

[mhsmith0]

Probably trans. Of course in that world I'd guess one of them votes me first, and then it's either game over or I simply have to argue against the one who voted me.

[mhsmith0]

Why do you think that Thor would eat a bullet tonight when he hasn't the last two?

[mhsmith0]

just the scale/nature of the interactions between giga and karnos; karnos really does seem to have a strong meta of ignoring his partners in thread, and he didn't seem to do that with giga. would certainly reread more carefully to be sure in that world, but it seems unlikely and I don't see the wolf case on giga. Are you thinking that there is a case there?

[mhsmith0]

Also, back on day one, it seemed like you were trying pretty hard to save karnos despite stating that he wasn't a town read of yours. What was driving that attempt?

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii: Also, on a totally different tack... let's say you are in fact the last wolf. Who would you have shot the last two nights and why?

[mhsmith0]

OK so what kind of "more info" were you looking for? His thoughts on other players? Multiple days of voting data? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

wrt NK's, once you're all alone, you have to pick it, so you can't rely on a partner. Why would you say that RNG'ing is a good thing? You have the potential to make some very sub-optimal kills if you do (for instance, killing off a player who could get mislynched, such as rosske). What's the advantage of RNG'ing in a game like this?

wrt D1, karnos himself was primarily arguing with Io/Thor, but he'd also been a major center of attention, with opinion sharply divided on him. I guess the question is, if getting more info is important, who would have been a better info lynch? PC, who'd been extremely inactive, seems like just about the worst potential info lynch, and that's the main person you were pushing D1, and was your EOD vote as well. If info is in fact important, why would that justify PC over karnos?

[mhsmith0]

Actually I'd say that RNG itself is indicative of NK motive/process. Like, if I was the last wolf my options are constrained to town reads and strong players. The odds of my shooting a lurker inside the PoE like rosske is basically zero, because that gives up a very plausible mislynch. So if rosske had died, then the question becomes who'd have shot him, and it's basically down to people who don't have the experience to know what a good night shot is or someone who has a history of doing WIFOM type NK's.

Basically, if rosske had been shot N3, I'd have zeroed in on people who I figured didn't know what good night kills were, since htere was a tremendous cost to shooting there, both in terms of eliminating someone who was inside many peoples' PoE and in terms of eliminating someone who was NOT much of a thread presence.

PS in case you're curious,
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post275864
is an interesting analysis of NK motive in the first game I ever played as wolf (N1 I shot the cop, D2 I got lynched, this came from 4v1 next to last day, crunkus was in fact the last wolf, got lynched in F3)

[mhsmith0]

I agreed with the sub-optimal thing. And the advantage of RNG is that YOU aren't making the kill, technically. So people can't necessarily paint a motive to the nightkill on you.

Potential info from Karnos > PC

OK then. But you said that info was a priority, so if that was the case, why did you want PC dead instead of karnos?

[mhsmith0]

I really struggle to see it. Like, if you want to argue that there's something specifically off about Thor in the days since karnos's lynch, I'm not sure I'd agree but I'd at least listen. But to make a convincing case, I think you'd need to overcome the fact that the karnos/thor interactions day one look VERY much not like scum theater, or figure out a way that I'm just wrong and it actually is theater.

[mhsmith0]

AKA, getting info from PC was unlikely

So essentially the D1 perspective of wanting to lynch PC was based on the idea that he was never going to be productive, so we should lynch him and let the productive people be productive? Or more than that?

And I guess I'm curious, if PC was the person you most wanted lynched (based on that logic), why you'd post

@ Phantom, I'm willing to temporarily unvote you if you temporarily unvote Karnos.

was that a gambit? An attempted trap? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

Why is it not theater to you?

Well, among other things, theater usually has interactions that just look fake, staged or off in a meaningful way. Here...

1) Thor wasn't aggressively yelling at karnos or hard-pushing his lynch in a way that seemed staged in order to achieve maximum town credit for the bus

2) karnos discredits or misrepresents what thor is saying, see 139, 183, 210, 285, etc. Also 192 don't read like w/w either. Do they to you? If so why?

[mhsmith0]

Like, none of those posts from karnos read like he's talking to his partner. If they do to you, I'd really like to know what pings you there.

[mhsmith0]

I'll probably look at days 2+ in the near future, but here's what I have from D1 (subbing in the names of players who where there EOD1)...

1.03 - dueling wagons

Thor665 (3)

killthestory , Rosske , Transcend

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (3)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io ,

Not Voting (4)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,


1.04 - KCDA pops in and votes KTS, tenshii pops in and votes PC

Thor665 (3)

Rosske , Transcend , killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

Luna Fox ,


PC Wagon High Point

Thor665 (1)

killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (3)

Transcend , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,

killthestory (2)

mhsmith0 , Rosske ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

1.07

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (3)

karnos , killthestory , Rosske ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Lynch

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

Io (2)

karnos , Rosske ,

karnos (6)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox , mhsmith0 , killthestory ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

1.03 - dueling wagons

Thor665 (3)

killthestory , Rosske , Transcend

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (3)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io ,

Not Voting (2)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,


1.04 - KCDA pops in and votes KTS, tenshii pops in and votes PC

Thor665 (3)

Rosske , Transcend , killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

Luna Fox ,

1.07

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (3)

karnos , killthestory , Rosske ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Lynch

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

Io (2)

karnos , Rosske ,

karnos (6)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox , mhsmith0 , killthestory ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Thoughts:
1.03 - dueling wagons

Thor665 (3)

killthestory , Rosske , Transcend

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (3)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io ,

Not Voting (2)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,


1.04 - KCDA pops in and votes KTS, tenshii pops in and votes PC

Thor665 (3)

Rosske , Transcend , killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

Luna Fox ,

1.07

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (3)

karnos , killthestory , Rosske ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Lynch

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

Io (2)

karnos , Rosske ,

karnos (6)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox , mhsmith0 , killthestory ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Thoughts:
1) It still remains strange that karnos just stuck to Io for as long as he did without hopping onto Thor. It’s even more surprising that there wasn’t a more concerted effort from a wolf bro of karnos to save karnos at 1.03 or 1.04. By the time we hit 1.07, there are a bunch of vanity 1-vote wagons that aren’t going anywhere, and then relatively soon after that you hit the lynch.

2) Speaking of 1.07, it’s surprising that there was no effort to hop on the Io wagon there from a buddy. Like, if it’s Transcend or Tenshii trying to save karnos, why not hop on the semi-popular counter-wagon? Obviously a hop there would potentially look suspicious, but once you hit the “openly trying to save karnos” point, it’s weird for there to be no strategic hop on.

3) It’s an awfully dedicated bus here if it’s giga. Like, there were plenty of times where they could have bailed onto some other wagon like Thor or PC or Io. I’d say similar for Thor but I’d think that if he was bussing (and he does insist that this never happens for him), that he’d realize that karnos was going to die regardless and avoid hopping off. IMO it’s the stuff from karnos that is more clearing on thor than thor’s work itself (though I think thor’s D1 was fine as well).

4) From the time where karnos becomes a wagon (Io’s 83 putting him on 3 votes), votes on slots other than karnos:
a. Io, thor, giga: 0
b. KCDA/me: 1 (on KTS, then I hopped to karnos)
c. Luna: 1 (on PC, then she hopped to karnos)
d. KTS: 3: Thor, Io, Thor, then karnos hammer
e. Rosske: 3: Thor, KTS, Io
f. Tenshii: PC, KCDA/me, PC
g. Trans: 6: Luna, Thor, PC, Rosske, Luna, Rossk
Looking at Tenshii/Trans, Trans’s votes, other than hopping on the Thor wagon, were almost always the first vote on a wagon (though his PC hop had come after Tenshii voted there then moved on). Tenshii’s votes were first on PC, first on my slot, then 2nd on PC.

5) Giga pushing against the PC case in 588 is just exceptional if they’re the last wolf dedicated to bussing there. That’s a point in time in which a PC case, while not popular, was at least viable; pushing against it helped to doom karnos is a pretty subtle way, more or less the opposite of “look at me! I’m bussing for town credit”. Thor goes along the same way not much later; I’m more comfortable thinking it’s plausible within his wolf range, but even there it seems like a pretty subtle nudge at that point in time that doesn’t really help him strategically in a board where a lot of people aren’t really reading that closely.

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii - why are you so game on the idea that maybe I'm a wolf but that Giga isn't - how can you clear Giga but suspect me? I could see suspecting us both, and I could see clearing us both, but the half in and half out thing makes the stance look screwy. Whassup?

Well yeah I'm paranoid about Giga too. But I'm more certain about Giga being town

Talk through this a bit more? You're saying you're paranoid of Giga but I'm not really seeing that based on your posts. You recently asked me why protect giga over trans, but beyond that, I don't really seeing you question giga or post in ways that seem to indicate suspicion. In 1792 you stated giga and luna as your safe town reads and that you suspected everyone but them.

I guess my question here is, what makes you paranoid about giga? And if you are in fact paranoid of giga, why aren't you questioning them about whatever it is makes you paranoid?

[mhsmith0]

I don't have much to justify it atm. I was planning on rereading at some point tho

Is there anything even semi-tangible at this point? Like a particular post, or a general sense of giga's approach being off somehow (too aggressive, too passive, something else)? The problem I'm having here is that the following just happened:

Thor: suspecting me but not giga doesn't make sense (2410)
Tenshii: oh I'm paranoid of giga too (2412)

Like, I'd agree that being paranoid of giga would be a valid defense against thor's push there, if in fact you were paranoid of giga (another valid defense would be to explain what makes thor much more suspicious than giga, but that wasn't how you chose to answer). But other than you saying that you're paranoid of giga, I see very little evidence of actual paranoia of giga. So what evidence do you have of actual paranoia of giga? Or is this just a vague "well I'm not 100% sure giga is town so there's a bit of paranoia there, even though it's not a priority to evaluate" thing?

[mhsmith0]

Replace the slot don't lynch him.

Alternatively: Lynch Rosske watch him flip red and then we don't need a replacement!

Everyone is happy, even the host!

This was an interesting note late in the day 3 PC lynch situation. It would have been super easy for wolf!transcend to hop on PC or even to just passively lurk or otherwise allow it to go through. Instead he keeps pushing on rosske. Semi-plausible strategic imitation of a town process, but I'm just skeptical that he'd act in that way as a wolf there.

[mhsmith0]

I'm mostly just debating if I was left alive to push through Tenshii, or if I was left alive because Tenshii figures they can't afford to kill me.
The latter option requires bad logic on Tenshii's part - but that doesn't really remove it from my slate.

@Transcend - I'm debating agreeing with you that Tenshii is town.
I may want to lynch you and mhsmith in any random order that amuses me.

Why do you think mhsmith makes sense as a scumbuddy to Karnos moreson than you? He kind of had a reasonably timely push on the slot whilst you never did.

So what makes you feel better about tenshii exactly?

[mhsmith0]

Now this is slight defense on me in hopes of seeing mhsmith lynched. Because I feel his flip ends the game. Obviously I'm comfortable with being lynched because I feel like you will trust my townread on Tenshii and lynch smith.

Why do you think Thor either will or should trust your town read on tenshii? So far you've been wrong on karnos and wrong on rosske, what I believe have been your two strongest reads of the game. you said you re-read the game three times (I believe you mean during the recent night period). What if anything stuck out to you from that time period? It seems that despite your stated re-read, your views on the board are largely frozen, and you seem to have no questions or thoughts that are new coming out from those re-reads.

Given that I'm going to flip green if lynched (though obviously you can't know that if you're also a villager), what are your thoughts on a world in which I'm town? You've basically announced that its ok if you die, which is obviously not something that'd be ok if you lynch me first and it becomes f3; in a world in which its you and let's say Thor and tenshii in the f3, what are your thoughts on that set? If nothing else it'd be nice to see you actively engaging and developing your reads on that front; surely at this point you have questions you'd like answered from either or both of them? To solidify your reads there if nothing else?

[mhsmith0]

Thor's scum if you're not and I'm gonna get creamed by him if you flip green.

Luckily after carefully reading you and your predecessor, their actions seem the most scum-motivated.

How would you get creamed by him? Tenshii seems to be leaning towards Thor in that world, and I'm sure that Thor wouldnt want to shoot anyone other than giga tonight unless he was confident he could pocket giga there.

That said, what's your Thor case? I don't currently buy it at all; IMO Thor and giga are super likely villagers, w tenshii most suspicious and probably you next in a world in which tenshii is actually town. Since your Thor case wouldnt matter at all if I'm a wolf, but will matter a LOT if I get lynched and we head to f3, it kinda behooves you to put your cards out on the table now instead of just going "oh well it's Thor and to hell with thinking about whether it might be tenshii" in the f3. If your Thor case is actually good, everyone else might listen. And if it's a crap case (which I'm guessing it will be), then maybe you might actually see the light and realize that your case sucks before losing the game for the town.

[mhsmith0]

Also wrt tenshii, one specific point of interest is that Thor leveled the accusation that tenshii's play has been defensive, inwardly focused, and only really energetic when defending himself and karnos (I can dig up the specific post tomorrow if you like). Do you think that this accusation is

1) accurate
2) alignment indicative

Because your super strong town read of tenshii implies that either you say no to one of these two things, or that you simply haven't bothered to consider the accusation. So rather than just stating that you have a strong town read, tell me why in your opinion that accusation is either false or unimportant. Or why tenshii's play overall has earned a strong town read. A presumption of bussing is a poor reason to make a strong town read. Obviously bussing is possible but it is by no means inevitable. There should be more substance to your read if you feel so strongly about it.

[mhsmith0]

Anyways giga, i agree with you that smith doesn't have the best chance of flipping mafia. But your top scum read is someone I'll lynch never. And mine is someone in your lynch pool but you don't wanna rope until they've caught up. It's fine, i get it. I think she's has plenty of time to reread but whatever. I know you're paranoid right now, but if you're not willing to lynch Maria, then smith is the way to go. I think his flip will be helpful should he flip town, and if he's not town the game just ends then and there.

By the way, how would my flip there have been helpful? You r stated that you have no intention of voting tenshii (or for that matter much interest in providing a substantive evaluation there), so what actual useful info would you have gotten from my green flip if I'd flipped yesterday?

[mhsmith0]

Pointing out a "hole" is not defeating the read entirely.

He's pushing against the actual substance of what you'd said. Frankly, your tenshii read boils down to "gut" with the only tangible point being that he didn't vote karnos. Obviously bussing happens, but automatically assuming that a bus must have happened (the implication behind your clearing tenshii based on him defending instead of pushing/voting karnos) is a low substance read. It also ignores the entirety of tenshii's other play. You say you've town read tenshii for months. The implication here is that you haven't taken the time to re-evaluate or question that read in any meaningful way in that time period.

Given that there's just one more mislynch we can afford, you should be re-evaluating and questioning. Maybe you come out of that process with a substantive town read of tenshii, and can actually back that up in a meaningful way. If so (and if you're right) then great. But right now your town case for tenshii is weak, and you're pushing it in a way that is highly unlikely to convince anyone. And complaining about how Thor is arguing with you isn't helping either. He's been accusing you of being derpy town all game, and frankly I tend to agree, with a small possibility of you just outright faking being derpy town.

[mhsmith0]

The actual sequence

It certainly looks like sheeping seeing as you empty voted right after him. you really think Luna would have been first on the wagon for her own partner? You've already proven your reads are way off

Derp clear for rosske accepted. I don't think I'm ever voting him this game.

Oh wait never mind I'm an idiot. Rosske meant luna being first to vote karnos, not theoretical scum buddy kts. Never mind.

You'd think scum Rosske would be paying attention to the votes on his partner.

Yeah I guess that's fair. Not as utterly clearing as forgetting there's only one goon left though.

[mhsmith0]

the NKs and overall flow of the game seem to point to Mhsmith*

EBWOP

Talk about how for each? I don't see how shooting io particularly points to me. I suppose you can make a case for the Ira shot being me, but even there it's weak. Seems likelier that there was an intentional decision not to kill giga last night, either because it's giga (which I doubt) or it was designed to present an easy "kill motive" case against me.

Wrt game flow, I don't get what you mean. Clarify?

[mhsmith0]

How is he an ass? He's questioning you, and accusing you of bad/lazy play. Given that your two strongest reads have been proven wrong, and you've done a poor job explaining yourself or making quality cases or responding to criticism, I think that this is a fair accusation. Has he been intentionally antagonistic or over the top obnoxious? If he has I've missed it, please point me to where that happened.

[mhsmith0]

@giga: Wrt my goals, if I'm the last wolf then lynching tenshii puts me in big trouble because I'm most people's #2 suspect and transcend has basically announced that he'll refuse to reconsider his read of me as the last wolf.

Wrt nks, I don't see how it's suicide for tenshii. Transcend is a strong defender, he'll never die if tenshii is the wolf, and that means tenshii would need all three other townies United on him to get lynched. That's a decent position to be in, giving him options for a wifom kill. As it is, you're still waffling, so the impact of the kill was not particularly problematic for him if he's the last wolf. And I'd say that killing Thor is BAD for him if he's the last wolf, because it removes a possible mislynch given stated suspicions, and validates thors push on him. Both io and Ira are plausible for him if he's the last wolf, and the apparent lack of thought he's put into nk analysis validates the idea that he's capable of making sub optimal kills anyway.

Wrt game control, I'm not really sure what you mean. My voting Maria assuredly did not lock her in as the lynch. It was 3/3 her vs tenshii with Ira being the deciding vote before she self hammered. Ira easily could have voted tenshii at that point. Nor did I spend d2 strong pushing kts; I had a few posts casing him, but I also spent substantial energy figuring out who could reasonably be cleared.

[mhsmith0]

Last one probably just Luna or kts with the strategic hop onto the wagon (wolves usually can't resist bussing).

VOTE: killthestory

oh i found it

his vote is much worse than tenshii's here.

tenshii!town still stands

How was that a bad vote? Kts easily could have lol-hammered his buddy there.

[mhsmith0]

So mhsmith is kcdas.
I had a townread on that slot and he hasn't dissapointed. I think his assesment is valid considering that's how i feel about this game right now, even tho the conclusion leads to the wrong result.

By the way, this was Luna after I came in and pushed her off the bat. So either I strategically pushed there and got super lucky that she agreed it was reasonable to do so... or pushing her there was valid by her own words.

[mhsmith0]

How is voting for a self-hammer declaration opportunistic?

[mhsmith0]

Day Two Voting Data - key points

4v4

killthestory (4)

Rosske , mhsmith0 , gigabyteTroubadour , Luna Fox ,

Luna Fox (4)

killthestory , PhantomCobalt , Transcend , Tenshii ,

Not Voting (3)

Thor665 , Io ,

KTS to 5

killthestory (5)

Rosske , mhsmith0 , gigabyteTroubadour , Luna Fox , Tenshii ,

Luna Fox (3)

killthestory , PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (3)

Thor665 , Io ,

PC at 5

PhantomCobalt (5)

Io , killthestory , Tenshii , gigabyteTroubadour , Rosske ,

killthestory (2)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox ,

Luna Fox (2)

PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (2)

Thor665 ,

KTS 5

Transcend (1)

killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (2)

Io , Rosske ,

killthestory (5)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox , gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Tenshii ,

Luna Fox (2)

PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (1)

KTS 4, tenshii hops off

Transcend (2)

killthestory , Rosske ,

gigabyteTroubadour (1)

Transcend ,

PhantomCobalt (2)

Io , Tenshii ,

killthestory (4)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox , gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 ,

Luna Fox (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

KTS lynch

Transcend (1)

killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (6)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox , gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Rosske , Io ,

Luna Fox (2)

PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (1)

Thoughts/Questions:
1) Tenshii, your votes stand out as being generally bandwagony, as with a notable exception of when you hopped off the KTS wagon late in the day. What changed your mind between the KTS vote and switching to PC:

Spoiler:

I can get with 1298 and 1301. Also, we have like 3ish days left, idk how long that is for a forum game but I assume we should get a lynch relatively soon.
VOTE: KTS
L-1
Also lol at 1316

Never minddddd. Just ISO tojam real quick and you'll get what I mean. The deadline has been the exact same for the past how many vc posts now.
VOTE: PhantomCobalt

I look at the discussion in that sequence and I don't really see anything in there that would

Spoiler:

io and tenshii if youg uys could unvote i'd heavily consider a townbloc with you guys

If "we need a lynch" was your justification for hopping onto KTS in 1317, what made you change your mind and hop off him in 1377 onto a PC wagon that wasn't really going anywhere?



2) Thor, while I agree with the sentiments about tenshii you'd espoused on your KTS voting post

Spoiler:

VOTE: KillTheStory

I'm still serious about the question I asked that no one fielded.
Why is Tenshii a townread for peeps?
I got nothing there.
Slot feels super empty.
Whassup?

I'm curious why you were making that point at the same time as pushing KTS to L-2. Was this just a general request for clarification that happened to make it onto your vote post, or were you thinking Tenshii was as strong a suspect as KTS?

Also, you'd expressed at one point that you thought the last wolf was on KTS. Do you think this is meaningfully town-indicative of Transcend, since he's the only living player who was never on KTS? Or do you think that making a late hop off the KTS wagon is town-indicative for Tenshii, since he'd been on KTS for a while (among others) before hopping off onto PC late in the day?

3) One interesting thing I'm seeing from Transcend re-reading day 2 is no particularly obvious agenda; he's either doing a really good job as a wolf of imitating consistent preferences towards his stated lynch targets (and I don't even see him soft-pushing a KTS lynch when it would have been really easy to do that). If I was judging by day two alone, I'd say that he had the towniest day of the players alive. That said...

Spoiler:

i assume that's PC

leaning towards final scum being luna fox, rosske, or giga now. giga's been happy to lynch anyone honestly and it's alarming.

You talked about giga's vote hopping here (I think), but you'd been bouncing around a lot yourself, and Tenshii had been pretty open to hopping onto various wagons by then (bandwagoning votes on Luna in 979, KTS in 1068, PC in 1137). Why did giga's willingness to lynch whoever grab your attention but Tenshii's did not?

4) giga did some vote hopping here, but I think it seems pretty believable. That said,

Spoiler:

i go with the flow here

VOTE: PhantomCobalt

kts and i are tight, we bonded over twilight (he could still be scum but FINE)

Why did you make a "go with the flow" vote on PC there if KTS was your stronger read? And why would you say KTS and you "bonded over twilight" (and what did that mean exactly anyway), if you'd been hanging on his lynch and pushing there for quite a while previously?


PS Can everyone link their most recent one or two town and most recent one or two wolf games? If you don't have any before this (IIRC giga suggested they never randed wolf before, i don't know if tenshii has any off-site experience), just let me know.

[mhsmith0]

Don't disagree - are you voting Phantom right now? Because I feel like you're not, and then this comment looks weird.

Does me voting/not voting Phantom change anything I say?

yeah. that was part of why "transcend town reads tenshii strongly" is not something that makes me especially inclined to sheep you on. I'm more curious about your recent wolf games, as well as the wolf games of the other players.

[mhsmith0]

I've also played with town!Thor a bunch, but haven't seen wolf!Thor live (IIRC he had a wolf game with Zyf in Road to Rome recently, not sure if he had others recently or not)

[mhsmith0]

Also, as long as you're here...
(on day 2)

You talked about giga's vote hopping here (I think), but you'd been bouncing around a lot yourself, and Tenshii had been pretty open to hopping onto various wagons by then (bandwagoning votes on Luna in 979, KTS in 1068, PC in 1137). Why did giga's willingness to lynch whoever grab your attention but Tenshii's did not?

[mhsmith0]

Don't disagree - are you voting Phantom right now? Because I feel like you're not, and then this comment looks weird.

Does me voting/not voting Phantom change anything I say?

Day Three

LYNCH

Transcend (1)

Rosske ,

PhantomCobalt (5)

Io , Tenshii , Luna Fox , Thor665 , gigabyteTroubadour ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Not Voting (2)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt ,

Thoughts:

1) This was a really short day. idk that there's much substance to VCA here.

2) Thor, in your L-1 PC vote you posted:

Well wanna vote Rosske then?

It wouldn't surprise me if he just gave up. His play has been so bad i get the feeling he's not even trying.

Rosske is on my short list.

Sure dude. It totally does. Like if I spend all of this time attacking somebody, and I don't have a vote on him, it totally changes what I say. What's your point in bringing it up anyways? Are you saying I'm scummy for doing it? If so, how and why?

I've said you're scummy for a few things - pushing someone without voting for them while calling them your top scum read is a prima facie scummy action.

Vote: Phantom Cobalt

Given that you were pushing Tenshii again here, and were clearly suspicious of him, why did you make a L-1 vote on PC? Why not start a new wagon on Tenshii, or push harder for answers, or hesitate to cast a critical vote on PC? Or was PC such a strong read of yours that you were more just engaging with just the possibility that it wasn't PC?

[mhsmith0]

wasn't just sonia though

Spoiler:

Yeah scum wins this wp. Vedith redeemed his shitty predecessor.

Two people in my never lynch list are scum. Fuck me.

Obviously that's a sample size of one, but it's the sort of thing that makes me think that your "never lynch" read here (tenshii) is at best null due to your read there, unless you've got a much stronger case on him being obv!town that I've missed. Like, if there are really obvious town signs that overcome the bandwagoning, internal focus, and day one efforts to defend karnos and find just about any possible counter-wagon, I'd be curious to know what they are.

IIRC you've more declared your town read of tenshii than really backed it up with substance. The primary substance posts were http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8303001, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8303026, and I feel like it's overall lacking in terms of justifying a town read there. Now, I'll grant you that I don't see flagrantly scummy or bullshitty votes from him (and if he's pretty new I might expect that to have happened at some point), but there has been an overall wind-blown nature to his voting that is I think pretty decently conforms to an approach some wolves take (fading to the background, not really taking ownership of lynches, etc).

So I guess what I want to know is, given that his behavior is (IMO) pretty consistent with a decent model of wolf behavior, what makes him clearly town enough to make up for that?

[mhsmith0]

i assume that's PC

leaning towards final scum being luna fox, rosske, or giga now. giga's been happy to lynch anyone honestly and it's alarming.

I mean, you're backing them with empty made up stuff - but I don't have to agree with the lie you tell yourself that stuff like that equates to backup evidence for a belief.

so basicaly you lost your scum read on KTS, but then his vote hop onto PC looked survivalistic, so you then figured he was the last wolf after all?

[mhsmith0]

i played em when giga has been scum

he sucks.

Spoiler:

not really he was fairly competent and rused me a few times

anything in particular that separates giga's town game from wolf game in your mind?

[mhsmith0]

stupid board stuff and quote issues. that question about KTS was addressed to giga, but it attached other quotes to it.

[mhsmith0]

so in your mind, giga strongly resembles their typical town game wrt being genuine? it's a bit hard to know what you mean wrt that descriptor; genuine wrt questions, interest in solving, not making BS votes/cases, something else?

[mhsmith0]

Also

VOTE: PhantomCobalt

l-1 if i'm counting correctly
sorry transcend, rosske's tomorrow if he flips green at the very least

had you in fact manually counted the votes before voting the hammer? And do you have a history of occassionally messing up voting totals?

[mhsmith0]

yep, that was the lol hammer. it's a bit weird the way you phrased it, like you actually had counted as opposed to just relying on the mod's screwed up VC (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8223847 suggested it was 6 to lynch when it was really 5). I suppose it's possible you took that mod's post and counted from there though.

[mhsmith0]

@thor: wrt PC, it's just weird that you'd made that l-1 vote on him while pushing tenshii (again), and then follow it up with

Sure - for starters, explain to me why town would choose not to vote their top scumread nowhere close to mylo or lylo.

I'll wait.

And the reason scum would do it is due to lack of actual belief in their claims, and also for strategic purposes if they think the move will get them called out.

So that was nowhere close to MYLO/LYLO, PC wasn't your top scum read, and your comment to tenshii suggested that this behavior was in your mind a scum tell. So I guess I want to know why you'd hop along on pc lynch instead of pushing for a force replace, especially given that you'd indicated a preference for a replace at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p8225663. What changed between when you thought that he should be replaced and when you voted him?

[mhsmith0]

As far as the tenshii/transcend behavior wrt the kts wagon, it seems like transcend and tenshii are your current top two suspects, but you'd made a value call that the last wolf would would have been on kts (which transcend clearly wasn't, and tenshii eventually wasn't). Wrt transcend, I want to know how your scum read there compares to that stated value call; is the "a wolf would have votes kts" bit no longer valid? And wrt tenshii, I want to get your take on the hop off kts onto PC late day. If you think it's tenshii, then that was a strategic hop off. So what about that hop off seems strategic? Just that it happened? The nature and commentary of the hop off? You've suggested that d2 is important to your read, so I'd like you to clarify your thoughts wrt day two and the kts wagon.

[mhsmith0]

With respect/regards to

[mhsmith0]

@transcend: From day two

You talked about giga's vote hopping here (I think), but you'd been bouncing around a lot yourself, and Tenshii had been pretty open to hopping onto various wagons by then (bandwagoning votes on Luna in 979, KTS in 1068, PC in 1137). Why did giga's willingness to lynch whoever grab your attention but Tenshii's didn't?

[mhsmith0]

Why would you guess the former, which makes sense with my stated stance, and then theorize the latter, which doesn't, and ask me to clarify it for you?
This is a busywork question - why are you making it up to ask me? Frankly, the first one was fairly busy work also.

How is it a busywork question? Your recently stated top two are transcend and tenshii, and you seem to be leaning transcend as the last wolf. This runs counter to your previously stated read that the last wolf was on kts,

I would put at near 100% that scum is within Giga, Wing, mhsmith, and Tenshii.

I can accept that maybe scum didn't bus Karnos, but the idea that scum didn't vote KTS seems highly unlikely.

So, what changed? You've had him as derpy town for a while, and then you stated that he somehow convinced you tenshii was town (so it was me or him), and then you went back and said it was transcend or tenshii. This means that either you changed your mind on the relevancy of this point, or something else was sufficiently important to change your mind on the read.

I see the point you make at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8303071
But I'm not sure how this really makes him go from bad town to an actual wolf.

I'll grant you that if he is the last wolf, then his victory path is probably to get me mislynched, and then probably hoping that tenshii votes the other surviving slot (presumably you in this case). But I don't see how you separate out this compared to him actually believing that I'm the last wolf.

It's a bit of a callback to yellow in our last game,nowhere she made a case on me that, while not a good case, was at least within the range of what I believed she could believe. So I guess I want to know where you see the insincerity with transcend; why does he not believe the case he's trying to sell? And why is the original read, of transcend clear because he wasn't on kts (and he also wasn't on PC for that matter) invalid?

[mhsmith0]

@tenshii: so you're now saying that it's just about definitely thor, correct? What is driving your implied town reads of me, trans and giga? Just that thor seems very wolfy by himself, or do you have independent town reads of each of us? How haven't done a whole lot of discussion of your reads this game; you'd stated that I answered everything agianst me in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p8284293; if thor were to flip town, would you think it's me? Giga? Trans? Or are we all sufficiently strong town reads that you're really not worried about that possibility?

[mhsmith0]

@thor: wrt PC, it's just weird that you'd made that l-1 vote on him while pushing tenshii (again), and then follow it up with

Sure - for starters, explain to me why town would choose not to vote their top scumread nowhere close to mylo or lylo.

I'll wait.

And the reason scum would do it is due to lack of actual belief in their claims, and also for strategic purposes if they think the move will get them called out.

So that was nowhere close to MYLO/LYLO, PC wasn't your top scum read, and your comment to tenshii suggested that this behavior was in your mind a scum tell. So I guess I want to know why you'd hop along on pc lynch instead of pushing for a force replace, especially given that you'd indicated a preference for a replace at
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p8225663. What changed between when you thought that he should be replaced and when you voted him?

Please explain who my larger scumread was, and then I'll pretend you have a point.

And I gave up on replace because the mod didn't do it - this isn't rocket science.

The implied stronger scumread by your commentary was tenshii. That's where you seemed to be pushing, while you voted PC. I'll certainly agree that the mod should have, but didn't, throw out PC, but at the same time, that was nowhere close to a deadline lynch of a slot that at least plausibly could have been replaced; moreover, the mod explicitly stated at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8223862 that PC would be replaced (though PC then popped in and the mod vanished again); at the very least, it was plausible that some time before deadline the mod would actually follow through on his intention.

So you put someone at L-1 when the mod explicitly stated he was going to force-replace that slot ( http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8223862 ), and you say you did it because you gave up on the replace? The only way that seems to hold together is if you saw the mod state a replace intent, watched two days go by, and then decided that the mod wasn't going to bother to follow through... or did you just miss the mod's replace statement in the first place? Either one is plausible, but if that was driving your vote, why not just spam replace demands on the mod? Again, there was plenty of time in that day to make a replace happen.

How is it a busywork question? Your recently stated top two are transcend and tenshii, and you seem to be leaning transcend as the last wolf. This runs counter to your previously stated read that the last wolf was on kts,

Am I actively sorting him?
Yes?
Okay then.

It's a question about your stated reads on those two slots (which I believe are your top two wolves) within the framework of your stated value call (which I believe was unclear as to whether you thought the last wolf was on KTS at some point, or just whether you thought the last wolf was on the KTS lynch wagon at EOD). So if you think transcend is the last wolf, then the question becomes why do you now think that the moment was NOT meaningfully town-indicative for him.

Similarly, if you think it's tenshii, do you think that the hop off was then a wolfy hop off? And if so why?

Basically I'm asking you to analyze your reads in more depth in the context of a stated value call you made previously. Which strikes me as the opposite of busy work, unless you think that there's no need to keep engaging with you and sorting you by evaluating your reads and reasonings.

So I guess I want to know where you see the insincerity with transcend; why does he not believe the case he's trying to sell? And why is the original read, of transcend clear because he wasn't on kts (and he also wasn't on PC for that matter) invalid?

I can't gauge sincerity on Transcend because he can't describe his own thoughts - so...?

[/quote]

So you're basically wolf on tenshii and null on transcend? I'll agree with you that trans has done a lousy job of describing his thoughts and reads, but at the same time, he avoided the KTS wagon D2, and again avoided the PC wagon on D3, and I don't think he was at all cheering from the sidelines either. And he has in fact described his read on me at

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p8303037
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8303268
etc.

There's enough there to get some sense of his stated reasons. I'm not asking whether his case is good, I'm asking you whether his case is sufficiently bad enough to be something that he cannot reasonably believe, or whether he has, while pursuing the case, appeared insincere in his pursuit.
And you can also look at his earlier rosske/maria case/pursuit as well (including mulitple days where he did NOT, as far as I saw, cheerlead the KTS/PC lynches or do anything manipulative towards pushing those lynches that I can see).

To put it another way, if we call back to the Rio game, and the discussion around Titus, her read on me was both wrong and bad, and she wasn't communicating it clearly, but at the same time she WAS pursuing it with apparent sincerity and energy, and THAT was enough to get her a town read (see soah's comments about her meeting the standard for bad town, for instance). So, in your mind, does transcend meet the standard for bad town? I'm inclined to think he does, even if he isn't being super clear, and even if his reads have been questionable all game long.

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii: Since you're apparently thinking it's thor, this
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
is a game that just finished where thor was mafia (subbed in at 5p 3v2 LYLO, lost). His surviving partner (when he came in) was Katsuki. He's talked about not bussing, and this game seems to support it, where he hammered his buddy at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8300491 but wasn't particularly hard-pushing that lynch before the hammer (based on my skim anyway).

So, given that you think he's the last goon, how do you think his performance here compares to his one there?

[mhsmith0]

while we're at it, Thor, I see that dwlee did a fake scum claim gambit around http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p8300559 that you seemingly passed. Given the context of that incident, what do you think of the reactions from trans, giga and myself to KTS's scum claim gambit at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8206556 ?

[mhsmith0]

the big thing is that Thor is pretty insistent that bussing is bad, and that he won't bus (or very rarely will do so). With that in mind, I really don't think that he'd have set out with the intention of bussing. MAYBE some light distancing gone wrong, but I really don't see Thor's plan being to have a 1v1 with his buddy on day one. So I guess the question here is, do you think is like the one time ever Thor goes against his preferred style of play? Or do you think that the interaction between them went wrong and Thor was forced to roll with it? If the latter, what posts support this interpretation?

If you're going to argue for the last wolf being Thor, I'd really like to see a solid overall case from you, either for Thor being the wolf directly, or for the other three players to be villagers due to town-indicative things. Because currently my best guess is it's you, and if you're the last wolf, then if we lynch Thor you get an easy path to victory when Trans snaps me in F3.

PS karnos's meta appears to be to CONSISTENTLY ignore his partners in thread (which, by the way, is common wolf behavior). karnos really didn't do that here. Io had suggested he was angry in thread; is there evidence that this anger points specifically to being angry over Thor bussing?

[mhsmith0]

Anyway, I have to run for tonight, will be back tomorrow night.

[mhsmith0]

Cool. Where's your head space on trans ten and me?

[mhsmith0]

Tenshii being high in my earlier readlists was because of the fact that A: scumreading him would be due to pre-flip associations D1, B: I thought his posts about the dodgeball gag were kind of townie, especially with scummier people alive, and C: I have townread every single slot in this game except for Karnos's at some point.

Out of everyone alive, I think Tenshii is the most obviously scummy, but it's still plausible he's not scum.

I think this was your most recent read. Still there or no? I'm basically at the same place; I have a really hard time seeing you Thor or trans as a wolf here.

[mhsmith0]

Mod is prodging but it's been a week and I don't see any reason to not think it's tenshii.

VOTE: tenshii

[mhsmith0]

It's the dinner talking I think lol

[mhsmith0]

Might as well wait for trans $0.02. But I just really struggle to see how it's NOT tenshii here.

[mhsmith0]

I'm curious about this final plea myself. I'd like to see it get posted before giga makes hammer call. Because I really don't think tenshii has been particularly villagery this game, and think trans should actually bother to put his case together since he seems to disagree.

[mhsmith0]

Like, actually coming tonight then?

[mhsmith0]

Trans do you actually understand the case on tenshii? Because all you seem to be saying there is essentially "he's town" over and over again without any kind of meaningful backup. Where's the actual substance behind that read? Where's the substantive disagreement with the tenshii case?

[mhsmith0]

Tenshii apparently just flipped town and lost here
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8321032
I'll take a look at this later tonight.

[mhsmith0]

So all the stuff about tenshii being self focused and not doing much in the way of scum-hunting, as well as the plausibly strategic vote hopping, didn't register at all with you?

[mhsmith0]

It was just a restatement of "I town read tenshii" without actually getting into substance of WHY you tr him or even addressing the actual case against him.

@giga: please wait until tomorow, I wanna read that game I linked sometime tonight.

[mhsmith0]

VC 5 - 3

mhsmith0 L-1 - Transcend, Tenshii
Tenshii L-1 - Thor665, mhsmith0

(expired on 2016-09-15 08:00:00)

Deadline is 9/15, it's a bit boring to wait but I'd at least like to run a compare/contrast first. I doubt it changes my mind but it's worth looking at.

[mhsmith0]

Interesting town!tenshii sequence around
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8296272
In that game. Also made decent to good town posts there at

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8289560
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p8293239

Though its notable that tenshii was pushed that game (and in fact lynched) as town.

Comparatively, in this game tenshii posted a lot but has generally been uninteresting and avoidant of real scum hunting and game solving IMO.

@tenshii: in http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 5#p8269315 Thor said

So I actually think you're just skimming and asking empty questions.

You responded in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8269362 that you weren't skimming, you just don't remember stuff. What did you think of his accusation of asking empty questions? Because I look at your questions asked this game, and in genral they don't seem very interesting, and I still agree with his point in http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8235211 about your iOS being generally empty.

[mhsmith0]

Trimming the fat from trans tenshii town case...

Spoiler:

Tenshii has been a tonal town read and none of his posts read fabricated.


The thor / tenshii spat feels tvt but if one person in that duo is scum, it's thor.


rosske's votes with bad explanation > tenshii's weird votes with explanation that is bad but likely to come from newbtown


Nothing changes my read on tenshii at all but i just reviewed his RQS thingie because admittedly when i reread the game 3 times i skipped all the RQS posts. Anyways, I read his experience level. I thought he was a flat out noob, just like I thought Joushi was a noob. It appears Tenshii has some experience so I can't read them in a noob light anymore. I got duped by Joushi but he wasn't anywhere near a solid townread like Tenshii is right now.


Anyways, I think that this is Town!Tenshii solving the game rather than Scum!Tenshii who is manipulating everyone. His actions don't feel that manipulative. And I think all the pushes he's made albeit some of them wrong (There's 9 people that can be mislynched vs. 2 people who can't) were all sincere and were all made by him to achieve his town wincon. I haven't seen him do one thing this game that doesn't make me think he's town.


In post 2472, Transcend wrote:
My read on Tenshii is still the same, now that I know he's had some experience.


Okay Thor let's think of common things scum do to manipulate.

"hey you should vote this guy" is a very common one.

Tenshii DID NOT EVER tell anyone to vote his way. Tenshii did Tenshii's thing which included lots of vanity wagons that got little to no momentum. I feel Tenshii was using his vote to help him personally figure out scum. Unfortunately it resulted in a couple of mislynches and bad reads much like myself. But I'm smart enough to know town is capable of making such mistakes.

This is not a gut read honestly. The townread on Tenshii that is. That is a solid townread I've carried for about two months and nothing's changed from it.

Overall it seems to boil down to a tonal read and a "well I town read him a while ago and I'm not gonna bother to rethink it" bit. I'd also note the last point is bizarre; town behavior is to push for your desired lynch; tenshii not doing so is wolf indicative, not town indicative. Burying your vote on vanity wagons that go nowhere is a nice way to describe a wolf who's trying to avoid scrutiny for his votes and pushes.

[mhsmith0]

What lynches did you think he DID push for, other than "hey let's not lynch karnos" on d1? D2 he vote hopped, and I don't recall him being much invested in any particular lunch since, other than recently when he was in serious trouble. Like you seem to be suggesting trying to get people to agree with your push and wagon is wolf-indicative rather than town-indicative, which is pretty much crazy.

[mhsmith0]

Also find what from tenshii ISO made you think

Anyways, I think that this is Town!Tenshii solving the game

[mhsmith0]

Okay Thor let's think of common things scum do to manipulate.

"hey you should vote this guy" is a very common one.

Tenshii DID NOT EVER tell anyone to vote his way. Tenshii did Tenshii's thing which included lots of vanity wagons that got little to no momentum.

The theiry implication here is clear.

anyway got to run be back later.

[mhsmith0]

Tenshii, if you don't want to have your ISO called empty, put down actual thoughts on who is the last goon and who isn't. You're voting me; how sure are you it's me and why? You've stated suspicion of trans and Thor; why are the town arguments on them wrong? By implication you have giga as strongest town; what convinced you? "Other people read me as town" is crap; pull up the points they made that you think are strongest, and talk about why they are more relevant than the points against you, or why you think they disprove the case against you. The truth is you HAVENT been scum-hunting, and I don't see anything particularly genuine in your ISO, and the fact that it takes you getting wagoned to really get into things is at best null (and is frankly at least weakly wolf indicative).

Thor has shown investment in solving the game. Ditto trans (though it's been crappy). Ditto giga. You have shown less. If you want to not get lynched, make a stronger case for why it's someone else, which frankly is a helpful exercise as either alignment.

[mhsmith0]

Screw the "your iso/slot is empty" argument bullshit. In the game I was in, I was told the same thing and I still flipped town. And I still don't fucking understand how I'm/was being empty. In this game and in that game. Can you even elaborate on how my ISO is "empty?" Empty is the biggest fucking buzzword ever. Fuck. Your shitty empty argument is empty in and of itself.

FOR THE LOVE OF FUCKING GOD GIGA, reread Wingback's, iron's, and Luna's case on me. If for whatever reason you're scared of me voting Thor in 3 way then I'll vote the other instead. I would highly despise it but at this point I've come to terms with being trash.

Is there a world where I NK iron yesternight as scum? Is there a world where I hard defend Karnos as scum? Is there a world where I shitpost/salt vote as LAST scum?

So all the stuff about tenshii being self focused and not doing much in the way of scum-hunting, as well as the plausibly strategic vote hopping, didn't register at all with you?

Self focused my ass. And I totes wasn't scumhunting, you're right. And my vote hopping was amazing ikr. You guys were sooooooo slow to see it. I can't believe you guys didn't catch me earlier. <_<

Ps
Is there a world where I NK iron yesternight as scum? Is there a world where I hard defend Karnos as scum? Is there a world where I shitpost/salt vote as LAST scum?

Ok why do you think those things are hard disqualifying? Because those all seem plausible to me.

[mhsmith0]

Actually, talk about the Ira nk a bit more. If you are the last goon, who do you kill and why? I feel like giga and Ira are your two options last night, and I don't see why you'd strongly prefer one over the other, especially in the context of your previously stated preference of killing randomly or letting your partner decide. Why is the Ira kill disqualifying for you?

[mhsmith0]

Presuming you're town (which I still feel pretty comfortable with), more time is worth it if you think you can spend it productively, not worth it if you think you can't. If you're undecided ask questions and refine your read. I don't know I have anything particularly useful to say other than that.

[mhsmith0]

Crossing fingers. Though it may take a day or two for us to actually find out...

[mhsmith0]

It would be pretty funny if that was the outcome though.

[mhsmith0]

Bored... Really wanna see red flip so my win streak goes up to THREE
(Yes, I know, not super hi expectations, but then again my record losing streak is fucking SIX so every little bit helps)

[mhsmith0]

I'd like to think we will find out some time today. Who knows if that's correct though.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I was hoping I'd find out when I woke up (although I'm also annoyed I woke up early... waking up like an hour before alarm goes off is annoying)

[mhsmith0]

Huh. Thor was an odd kill. Either trans feeling his oats and thinking today will be easy for him or giga doing a status quo shot. Leaning giga but not sure tbh.

[mhsmith0]

Me too. If it's you trans probably just snap votes and gives it to you, but I at least don't want to play the sucker rn.

[mhsmith0]

@trans: Somewhat. You'd announced yesterday that you were willing to hand the game to giga, so you snapping wouldn't have shocked me.

Ninjad: now that tenshii got flipped I also wish he wasn't lynched. My reads have kinda sucked this game other than karnos.

[mhsmith0]

Trans: if you were determined to snap, my asking you not to wouldn't change your mind. At any rate I won't snap vote anyone for a while, I had tangible reasons to TR you both, so I need to figure out where I screwed up.

Ps at work won't likely post much till tonight.

[mhsmith0]

God you quoted karnos' vote and i had a heart attack.

Good answers.

Smith when you can i want my questions answered.

I think I did? See last page, let me know what I missed.

Also smith: why do you think thor was a weird night kill when you had reasons for both of us to be final wolf based on it?

Well, if it's you, shooting Thor wasn't impossible, but I'd think shooting giga was a bit likelier from you. The fact that nk motive has been discussed a bunch this game dampens the impact, but I feel like you'd probably at least slightly prefer a final 3 of me, you, Thor instead of a final 3 of me, you, giga. Then again, Thor had indicated willingness to lynch you while giga hadn't, so honestly you probably could have made either shot reasonably. Obviously giga is shooting Thor unless they're feeling REALLY ballsy and want to shoot you to implicate me (I was half expecting you to flip dead more or less for that reason).

[mhsmith0]

If anything I want to hear the case against me because (I guess this is in part of knowing I'm town) it just really seems unlikely for me to be scum and I want to know the thought process behind it.

Some of it is gut, but I think I have more tangible and meaningful reasons to TR trans compared to you. Kind of feels like you've been keeping your hands clean since the karnos wagon and not really been pushing or being aggressive (need to re-read to make sure that's correct). Also the "let's build a town block" but in d2 was sketchy, though the idea of it being allowed to go through without much in the way of pushback was basically a collective town failure.

Trans's ATE early today was a bit suspicious (and I'm not sure where his SR of you came from after his d5 talk about being willing to give you the game), but overall it seems like he's been legitimately invested in his reads, he's avoided signing off on some of the mislynch wagons this game (even passively), and I give some credence to Maria (who I believe knows him best) saying this is his town game.

I also need to re-read you and karnos interactions to make sure they look as good as I remember. Also need to read up on some of your town games on site to see if I can get a substantive comparison (though I believe there are no red flips from you).

[mhsmith0]

Of course the flip side is I've got like four games straight w Thor where he had scum reads before he died that turned out to be correct even when I didn't understand or agree w them.

[mhsmith0]

When you come back Giga: Why did you let your Tenshii town read go to waste? I'm trying to decide how you 180'd there. I think his play was fairly consistent the whole game and his tone matched throughout the whole game. I gave you a plethora of reasons from my ISO that Tenshii could be town and you didn't really take any of them to heart. Walk me entirely through what made you lynch Tenshii yesterday.

Thor fed into my paranoia early game, so after that I never really HAD a townread to 180 from. I read your posts but you pretty much just quoted yourself so it's not like I really felt any need to change my read. Should I explain my scumread on Tenshii or...?

Also I was thinking that a Thor/Giga LYLO isn't really that great for scum!mhsmith because I openly admit that I would vote Mhsmith right off the bat and I would expect Mhsmith to vote me back because I don't think anyone could have pushed Thor as scum. So maybe mhsmith has to take the risk as scum? I'd still take Tenshii and Thor with me to LYLO and I'll be using that as my defense all day

There's also the fact I had NOTHING to gain from pushing Karnos from a scum perspective. If anything, I'd be planning on having Karnos carry my team's win because I really would not expect myself to be able to pull off a successful first scum game outside of the Newbie Queue.

In theory I agree w this. Otoh if you're his buddy you were presumably just distancing early, presuming it would go away, and then basically found yourself unable to credibly hop off his wagon. I don't think the back and forth really looked like that, but it's a theoretically plausible model of what could have happened, and for the most part I believe your town read came mainly from being early on karnos.

[mhsmith0]

That's fine I think. It seemed like a change in perspective from "yeah tenshii or giga can win if they fooled me" to where you are today.

Is this normal for you in LYLO, to become more tentative in your reads/votes? It is for plenty of people, but I'm curious if this is your norm as well.

[mhsmith0]

For me, I'd had a 3-game winning streak that just got snapped (my first wolf multi ball game [on MU] did not go so well, had to fake claim d1 and the got lynched d2, and then town pulled it out thanks to a bunch of cross-kills). I've had an annoying tendency to turn losses into losing streaks (I had a six-gamer across multiple sites not that long ago), and would REALLY like to finally claw my way over .500 on MS (6-6 right now, including some just horrific gut-punch losses).

At any rate, I'll probably go work on this more over the weekend. Hopefully something jumps out at me in the process.

[mhsmith0]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Can see for yourself. Didn't update for the multiball result, rest is up to date I think.

[mhsmith0]

@giga: I'll actually +1 trans question about why your motivation dropped, especially if this had a chance to be your first ever win on MS. It feels more like you'd be chomping at the bit to grab that first win with blood in the water.

[mhsmith0]

i haven't found a recent game where Krinkles votes for his partner during RVS

so, it's irrelevant

If it's indicative (in this case suggestive of it bit being trans) I'd think it's not irrelevant.

Btw karnos scum games on site
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
Did not rvs either buddy

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8215199
Did rvs one buddy (cakey) on 2nd rvs vote

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p7911854
No rvs of only buddy (ranger), does eventually cast a vote for her that lasts for less than an hour

I think that's his only scum games on site, unless I screwed up the checking. Will dig into those a bit more when I have time.

[mhsmith0]

Off the top of my head:

Karnos 7 - relatively confident, but far from a lock
Killthestory 6 - was a plausible buddy, and seemed overly survivalistic. Once he started talking about actual reads post hammer, though, it was super obvious that he was town, or just a master troll (but much likelier town)
PhantomCobalt 3 - I mainly was "on" because he had been hammered and it's bullshit for a hammer to get taken back due to mod error. Mods "I'm not replacing because L-1" was suggestive that he was the last one but I don't recall the case there being all that compelling.
Rosske/MariaR 5 - figured her or tenshii, wasn't at all sure which
Tenshii 8 - by then I really didn't have any better ideas (I'd had tangible reasons to TR the other three), and tenshii seemed to fit pretty reasonably well

[mhsmith0]

I didn't sheep Luna. I was actually questioning her vote basis, then went back and dug into the karnos/io/Thor back and forth and was convinced from that.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt Maria, I'd been back and forth but was pinged a but by her. IIRC it was her knowledge of being scum read when she said she hadn't actually read that was a notable ping, it read to me like she'd seen rosske bitching about it in wolf chat without having the actual thread knowledge to justify it. I think there was something else too but I don't remember off the top of my head. I remember being pretty confident about it being her or tenshii though.

Fwiw I also didn't expect her self hammer; I might have actually hopped onto tenshii and hammered there before deadline.

[mhsmith0]

Wrt the vote, it came after I'd read it in more detail. I think I quoted it later on, but there seemed to be an attitude of not liking walls so I didn't think it helped to dump a big wall on the board.

[mhsmith0]

See
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8168308

[mhsmith0]

I'd also note that 614 did explain the reasons pretty clearly, I just didn't provide a bunch of citations and quote snippets. But those were the reasons, and i thought they were pretty clear. Not a slam dunk case, but pretty good for d1 with a pretty reasonable chance of hitting a goon.

Ps http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p8154705 was Luna basically saying that my assessment of her, which I made off the bat, was basically valid, just wrong.

Pps you can also read some of my ther posts around the time I voted talking about karnos, including
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8157372
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8157378
Etc.

I thought my reasons given were pretty clear and reasonably compelling.

[mhsmith0]

I'd also say that I'm basically never completely confident in a d1 lynch, in part because I've gotten them wrong enough in the past to know better. But yeah karnos was nicely >rand wolf IMO.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I'd laugh my ass of post game if this whole back and forth was scum theater between two people who know a town flip is coming. Since I think odds are decent of karnos flipping red, not any kind of priority right now though.

*brings up possible scum theater*
*thread dies*

Umm.........

Fwiw this was probably a good example of where I was at wrt karnos flip. Thinking he was likely a wolf, but not really sure. I also did think that was a pretty funny moment, scum theater between those two there would have been an awesome way to try and scam the board.

[mhsmith0]

I can't prove it wasn't a bus, but I don't think here was anything there that seemed especially bus-like beyond "he could have been bussing". Does anything look like bussing to you beyond "well it could have been"?

[mhsmith0]

BTW all 3 of us have sworn today when the mod doesn't like it. Lol.

^ things I find goddamn amusing

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, this isn't an easy game. Wrt karnos it was an early bus (giga), a late bus (me), or an attempt to save him (you). I know it wasn't a late bus, but it isn't obvious which if the others it was. Re-reading d1 AGAIN will be super fun...

[mhsmith0]

How familiar are you and giga w each other? Mainly on other sites, or do you have a few together here on MS?

[mhsmith0]

Was curious if you two knew each other otherwise. For some reason I thought you guys had more background together.

[mhsmith0]

Also 649 was pretty funny. Graveyard meltdowns are always fun (other than when you're part of the melting down dead town of course). No graveyard meltdown compares to fruit salad though, that was epic (my first wolf game ever, binked cop before post 100, and crunkus hard carried the team to final 3 before losing at the bitter end).

[mhsmith0]

My interest and energy waxes and wanes myself. I was super overloaded not long ago, like 3-4 games at same time, way too much. Actually cancelled a fun theme game /in because I had too much. Probably doing more hydra'ing going forward, doing one w shadow_step, maybe another w rask, and one offsite w a player i respect a lot (and who has won each of the four times we've played together, while I'm 1-3 in those lol)

[mhsmith0]

Never tried before. Should be fun. Shadow hates playing town and I hate playing scum. One of us will dislike the experience

[mhsmith0]

Nope. My first game here was actually my 2nd overall. I have like 45 turbos (18 minute days) but beyond that I'm under 20 "real" games played. Not newb but far from super experienced.

[mhsmith0]

I pretty much agree. Would be my best scum game by miles. I kinda wish I was the wolf here at this point lol.

[mhsmith0]

Yep. I've got a decent to do list, will get to it at some point over the weekend. Friday nights are not always the best for my critical thinking skills.

[mhsmith0]

Ditto. Cfb tonight. Work and this tomorow.

[mhsmith0]

Mini 1800

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Karnos bussed by math blade, busses right back and instigates a fight (see post 620 and around there)

Open 647
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
Not much three-way interaction, except towards the end where bussing happened

Basically, karnos doesn't have a pattern of doing much with buddies, but DOES seem to have a pattern of bussing, especially when a buddy is on him. This is dampened by the fact that math blade told him to do this in 1800, but I could easily see him taking it to heart (since it worked well) and making it part of his wolf meta. Notably, he doesn't actually vote anywhere outside of Io, which differs from his seeming comfort with mutual bussing when necessary. This suggests that he likely was NOT bussed, though karnos's game count isn't high enough to make it a strong conclusion from that level of evidence alone.

[mhsmith0]

So, Thor, the vote on Karnos was just RVS?

No - what part of 'I townread you' is confusing?
You are a townread.
You're voting Karnos.
Ergo, if I'm right about you, statistically by voting who you vote I'm more likely to target scum.

HOLY FUCK THIS POST IS 20 LEVELS OF AWFUL

VOTE: Thor

Given that this was effectively a chainsaw defense of karnos, what was so terrible about thors justification? I can see it as being a bit lazy, but "20 LEVELS OF AWFUL" seems quite a bit much for that point in time.

thor-- i work a lot. sorry if my attention is not undivided towards this game.

your 64 looks bad because it looks like a shitty excuse to vote karnos. plain and simple.

"well i townread you so the person you vote is mafia"

i've had several townreads before when playing this game that couldn't find scum if it meant their life depended on it. have you played with giga before? do you know that she's good at scumhunting? what if she's the most abysmal scumhunter ever....

There's some reasoning here about it being a mediocre to poor voting rationale, but I don't really see why you'd expect all that much more out of a super early vote. Giga talked to Karnos saying

If you think I'm scum, why not just hammer me, why you going for a new wagon instead? Or at least, why not show intent to hammer?

you're at L-2 karnos :/

no one's hammering yet because i will fight the shit out of them if they try

---

Trying to throw suspicion at Thor was an attempt at diverting my attention away from you. I put my low-information vote onto you because I felt that starting with you would generate helpful reactions, which it clearly is. Scum!Karnos wants to discredit the wagon forming around him before it has a chance to form so that he doesn't have to get involved in a town-lynching wagon (i.e., voting Thor or me). By asking the question you posed in #70, you innocently can figure out why I'm not scumreading Thor while implying that I should be doing so.

The logic behind bringing up 141 is that, after a reread, I realized that your intention in asking #70 was "Why are you scumreading me and not Thor?" As I see it, Io just caught onto this train of thought before I did, which is true.

Also, scum!Karnos has every incentive to vote for Io and not Thor. Io is a vanity wagon. At the moment, there's no way Io will get lynched and thus flip town. That way, it can't make you look suspicious for leading a wagon against a townie. Voting for Thor, however, has the risk of actually going through and putting suspicion around you.

Pretty much your scum motivation is summed up by the fact that you are focused on how people are scumreading you. The fact that you think my RQS was designed to get people lynched, the fact that the votes placed on you are absolutely pathetic ones (except Io's), and how you're flailing against Thor is just really weird when put into a town-mindset. If it makes you feel better, I think the arguments you're making really sound like they're coming from an ISTJ lmao . Whether you're frustrated you were "caught for the wrong reasons" or you just

really

hate being scumread is tbd

and @kts i am sorry

Which actually does seem like a plausible wolf motivation behind that d1 Thor push that karnos was essentially cheerleading and that you were actively on. So, what was so bad about what Thor said that it deserved a vote and hard push from you?

[mhsmith0]

Doing some digging, but essentially my $0.02 is that if I read by d1, giga looks good and trans bad, and if I read by d2 and later, it's the other way around. Obviously one of those two is wrong, but that's basically my headspace right now. Going through d1 stuff right now, may or may not look at d2+ later tonight.

[mhsmith0]

Karnos talking to giga d1:

Spoiler:

there is something else that bothered me about Karnos's responses that I will discuss after I feel I have enough responses to go off of.

Obviously I have to be curious about that, but more importantly: how do you feel about people who flat out refuse to answer your questions?

Karnos basically going out of his way to manipulate giga into suspecting Thor. Not impossible post to a buddy but difficult, and not what Karnos normally does.

Spoiler:

Unless you think Thor & I are the sort of players who would bus each other day 1.

Io, is this and post #70 what lead you to believe that Karnos is adamant about Thor's lynch? If not, could you tell me what I missed?

Karnos, how are you reading Thor at the moment?

Thos *is* acting scummy, though not as much as Io, and I only have one vote.

The problem I have with Thor is his logic is inconsistent. He thinks his read is so good he can trust you as town after only a couple posts. Okay, maybe his read is so good, but if you accept that he is so good at reading people, then shouldn't he pick his own scum to vote, based on his amazing reads? Instead he chooses to sheep you. It's like he is saying he is so good at reading people that he is 100% convinced you are town, but at the same time he isn't confident enough in his reads to independently vote on his biggest scum read. It's a weird inconsistency to me.

There is one perfectly logical conclusion, is that he read you as town and I was his biggest scum read, and that would make perfect sense... but when he was questioned about his vote, he didn't say that was the case... he just said he was sheeping you. It's like he doesn't want to take personal responsibility for the vote, doesn't want to be associated with it. He wants to support the wagon on me but give himself a nice out after I flip town.

Again, Karnos doing work to get giga to specifically suspect Thor and/or discredit his push. Again, not normal for how Karnos interacts with buddies.

Spoiler:

If players know the questionnaire will be used to call them scum

Karnos

, is this what you believe the purpose of the RQS was?

What you or I think about the purpose is irrelevant, since you have already shown that you will use it as an excuse to push a lynch.

Given that knowledge, and knowing that ignoring the RQS has no ill potential, it just sounds like fake scum hunting, busywork essentially. It's like when someone enters thread, asks a few pointed questions, and then never follows up with them.

Shades giga after giga shows no inclination to move off Karnos. Plausible w/w interaction, but not especially indicative of it.

Spoiler:

The fact you're concerned about how you think I'm using the RQS to push your lynch and how you've been trying to draw negative attention onto Thor (as in post 70) tells me your main concern is in how other people are reading you. That's pretty basic scum motivation. You say you're scumreading Thor and Io, but your interactions with them don't seem like scumhutning to me, it's just redrawing attention onto them.

Again with post 70. You refuse to read it as written, instead adding in assumptions about it's motivation. Saying Thor was the only one who hadn't answered questions is a lie. You had not answered your own questionnaire. Several players who were not active had not answered it. Perhaps players in a prior game didn't answer it. As I said in a prior post, in the only other game I played with a questionnaire, one of the players who refused to answer it flipped scum. You can keep trying to twist 70 into an attack on Thor, but that doesn't make it true.

I don't feel the need to share a detailed read of you right now. You aren't a top scum choice, I have no intention of voting you today, based on the current game state, but if I tell you exactly what behavior of yours is townie and what is scummy I am just inviting you to adjust your play and fool me further if you actually are scum.

Gets upset at giga for gigas continued scum read of Karnos, casts shade but no follow through. It's non standard for how Karnos interacts with a bussing buddy, but not disqualifying,

Spoiler:

also i don't see why you couldn't answer my question with a simple "town" or "scum" or even "null", it's not like i'll know why you read me that way and I'll change whatever it is you suspect me for.

Typically, if you are scum, my read on you might help you decide whether or not to nightkill me. Now in this particular setup this is less of a concern, but I don't feel like changing up my strategy at this point because I don't see the benefit.

Empty interaction from Karnos. Null wrt giga.

Spoiler:

As written, the post was written in such a way where it could have only been referring to Thor.

Pretend for a moment that Thor did fill out the questionnaire, and I still made that same post. Are you saying it would be grammatically flawed?

No, there is still a valid interpretation for the post: I was asking a general question.

Misreps answer to gigas post. Not impossible but difficult for a buddy to make this post. Like, actively misreading a buddy's point is not normal to see.

Spoiler:

I answered it as a general question, so of course it's a valid interpretation, but I can't help but think after reading 141 that you were trying to cast some sort of suspicion onto Thor (and myself, as it seems you keep bringing up the fact I was withholding my answers for a little bit). I didn't really read it the way Io was and I was trying to understand where she was coming from in post #105 with pretty much all of her suspicion on you, but after seeing more posts from you, I ended up coming to the same conclusion as her after rereading your ISO and the thread.

I agree, my iso probably looks like crap, but every time I look at this thread there are 2-3 new semantic arguments picking apart my choice of words. Instead of arguing that you know what I meant better than I know what I meant, why not explain why I am scum?

Why would scum!karnos go to all this effort to throw suspicion on to Thor? Why would I be so elusive and sneaky about it, while I come right out and call Io scum and vote her? Wouldn't I just vote Thor, if I wanted him lynched?

And WTF is your logic now about 141. You know posts are made in consecutive order, right? Post 70 was Friday afternoon, Io's responses to it occurred later Friday, and then post 141 was Saturday morning. Does your theory include a time travel device? Otherwise, you can't reverse cause and effect. If 141 caused you to view 70 as a scummy post, that still doesn't explain Io's attacks that occurred prior to it.

Anyway, just answer me this if nothing else: whats the scum motivation? Taking your assumptions, not mine: If I have seen scum ignore questionnaires in other games, and I pointed out Thor was ignoring it here to attack him, maybe, if anything, you have proven I am scum hunting. Why does that make me scum, and not town?


Meh. This is a big waste of time and not getting us closer to finding scum. My iso looks bad because I am making posts like this to respond to nonsense attacks and I don't really have much time to look at anything else going on in the game.

Actively trying to convince giga to get off him. Not counter-bussing, but talking to giga as if they are someone that is worth convincing to change reads. I don't have reason to think that this is within karnos's wolf range to a buddy.

Spoiler:

Scum:

Io

,

Kcdaspot

,

Thor

.

Honorable mention to gigabyte for 298 Those sort of posts are popular among scum, because it's a nice setup to get two miss-lynches in a row- but not a real scum read, because other than that one post, nothing super scummy from her.

I'd be okay with lynching Io or Kcdaspot today.

Plausible w/w with giga, but also plausible just random shade throwing, notably Karnos does NOT go back to this after getting lynched; it's kind of a throwaway shade throw, where if he was trying to distance a buddy I feel like he'd likely be more dedicated to it.

[mhsmith0]

In the context of day one...

Town!Transcend
Newbie 1721
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=27478
has fluid reads, bounces around with his vote, pushes and presses multiple people, especially early
asks questions, reasonably often with a push behind them - 22, 35, 41, 46, 65, 374, 377, etc.
gives substance behind reads, and is sorting the whole board (though some of the sorts are light on heft), see 346 reads list

New York 196
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8029308
has fluid reads, bounces around with his vote, pushes and presses multiple people, especially early
asks questions, reasonably often with a push behind them - 46, 49, 54, 57, 59, 397, etc.

Open 645
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
pushing early, bouncing around with his vote and reads, engaging with most of the board
asks questions, reasonably often with a push behind them - 195, 227, 229 237, 244, etc.


Wolf!Transcend
Mini 1796
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
early emphasis on explaining/justifying his own push - 167, 169,
questions are self-oriented or weak: 176 is in the context of his own read, 278/279 are questions that don't go anywhere, 281 is in the context of talking about his own vote, 411 is sort of a question, and that's basically it for his first 100 posts

I'm explicitly NOT sorting Fire/Ice since
1) It was multiball
2) His partner was already dead when he subbed in
so that's not reasonably comparable to this game

This game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... B%5D=27478
(page 1 - first 200 posts)
day one engagement much more focused on specific people (Luna Fox, Thor, PC)
questions are rare and weak - 132 is a push on the player pushing karnos, 352 is a reinforcement of his PC push, ditto 423, 440 is decent though, 642 is a push on luna rather than a true question,
TR of karnos was weak - 317 is a playstyle read, and when thor pushed back in 336, he's not really interested in engaging substantively with the karnos read (394, 397 are both weak in that respect), and pushes to change the topic of conversation
436 is a weird reaction to PC - scum would be MORE likely to make a bad vote, not less
695luna notes trans's posts as being really town, but that only applies i think if karnos is also town; if karnos flips red (which he did) it's an easy post for a buddy to make to sell the "I totally didn't think karnos was flipping red" mindset

In terms of day 1, transcend played much closer to his wolf meta than his town meta. I'd felt better about his later days though, so I need to dig into those to see if I still agree w that or not.

[mhsmith0]

you probably will. I'm back on D2, I don't feel as strongly about your D2 being bad and trans's being good as I previously did.

[mhsmith0]

By the way, obviously I can't prove it's true, but the kill was once again one that I really wouldn't normally make. Like, if I'm the goon here I've made a series of night kills ONLY with the goal of making kills I wouldn't normally make. Just based on what people have been saying, I'd prefer me/thor/trans to me/you/trans (since each of them could easily just vote the other). And I'd at least consider shooting trans as well, though THAT would be a WIFOM type kill that would depend on my acting ability to convince people that I wouldn't be that blatant. Honestly, I was kinda of expecting a trans kill last night where I'd need to figure out which of you and thor would have the balls to make such a blatantly framing kill.

[mhsmith0]

I also suspect that the posts around the ira shot were basically trans just trying to set me up (selling me as a wolf before the maria flip, then going hard in the paint on me afterwards). Still on D2 but that seems plausible to me, at least off the cuff.

[mhsmith0]

KTS, last words?

If you're town, give us a townbloc of 5 people besides you. Because if you're town then I'm all out of ideas.

Also, this might come off as bullshit, but my vote for you comes with respect to you as a player. I think a lot of people dismiss you as just "trolly", but I've read through some of your games and have reason to believe that you're really a skilled player. Skilled enough that, as scum, you would quickhammer your own partner to make you harder to find. Just wanted to put that out there because I am going to feel terrible about this if you're town.

Yeesh what a bad post

@trans: why was this a bad post? Seems mediocre, maybe a bit AtE'y, not really sure what else drove it being bad.

[mhsmith0]

The Ira kill still makes sense if it's you. What merit would there be from killing me? I definitely do not think you'd consider a Thor kill, so Io makes sense there. How do you suppose it would go if you were scum?

Sure. If I'm the goon:

N3 - I kill Thor instead of Io, because I would SPK there barring a VERY good reason not to. And there wasn't any such good reason not to that I can remember - ESPECIALLY since Io was explicitly town reading me, see

Spoiler:

I don't have a problem with Luna really.
And I do like smith.

Sorry for the short post I'm about to go to another state for the next 2 days so I'll be V/LA for a short time, no more than 48 hours though.

As far as I'm concerned Thor, Giga, Smith, and Luna are all exrtremely unlikely to be scum because of Karnos's basic interactions with them.
Honestly I think KTS is Town adn PC is the most likely person to be Karnos's partner because of this interaction they had.

VOTE: karnos for being the first one to post after my introduction!

How rude. I haven't done a VC recently, I hope that wasn't hammer.

Hello PC.

Just looking at it, it's so casual compared to how Karnos interacted with out people in the begining.
Not to mention it's a pretty light hearted accusation from PC and dropped soon after. And Karnos's responce wasn't even serious either.

Of course PC also has Karnos as top Town as well as Luna and Giga as top scum.
VOTE: PC
I'm aware no one is voting for him, but I don't care when he's the most likely person to be scum in my eyes.

N4 - assuming that I killed Io for some reason, I'm choosing between Ira and you. I probably kill you but Ira is at least something I'd think about. I'd also think about Thor, but at that point, by not killing him N3 I'd basically be somewhat pot-committed to either mislynching him or pocketing him

N5 - I probably kill you to get me/thor/trans F3. Maybe I kill trans just to shut him up, but I don't think I'd really want to deal with a me/thor/you F3. And trans indicated suspicion of thor, and vice-versa, so there'd be a very reasonable chance of a cross-vote requiring zero effort on my end to win. Shooting Thor there is just really odd if I'm the last goon.

Basically you have two night kills (n3 and n5) that are simply not where I ought to be shooting, and n4 is sub-optimal as well, though you can at least make a case for that one being in my interest just to silence him and remove a widespread town read.

I'd actually say the Io kill is just completely bizarre for me to make, given that I was seemingly town read by her, and that her town reads post PC lynch weren't the whole board (unless I mis-remember), and that she hadn't been as active as Thor and she's not the kind of long-standing veteran that Thor is. Like, if I'm the last goon I'd much rather take my chances at snowing her over than snowing Thor over; Thor is a player who can get himself mislynched (I just saw it happen in the MU game) but he also has a knack for scum-hunting, and I wouldn't want to have to fool him over any kind of long term. It's true that killing Io removes a voice that was defending rosske, but if I'm a goon that would literally be my only benefit, whereas it has a lot of detriments, IMO way more than the value of WIFOM would present.

[mhsmith0]

Notable:

Well I'm back now.
Honestly those quote don't really show Rosskee as scum at all.
Plus really PC is just saying to lynch Giga who is the most townie person there is. He can't be that bad of a townie to not see that.

was Io's last substantive post. It also argues against a Giga shot there (though without knowing what Giga likes to do, WIFOM kills aren't impossible), and does suggest a Trans kill motive (i.e. silencing her point defending rosske, and eliminating the possibility that in the process of hard-defending Rosske, she might start to scum-read Trans).

[mhsmith0]

I'd say the trans NK motive would be something like:

N3
silences a widespread town read rosske defender who had been making substantive town reads on multiple slots, and eliminates someone who could have potentially scum read him for his rosske push

N4
trans had been pushing for my lynch, the ira kill easily dovetails with that effort (framing kill of someone who had more energy than substance behind his push on me), while eliminating a widespread town read

N5
thor seemed to prefer a trans lynch to my lynch, and both you and me hadn't indicated a preference towards lynching thor. easy kill for wolf!trans to make

I'm not sure that the kills disqualify you yet, though, I need to re-read. But there's a pretty easy explanation that coincides with wolf!trans for each of them without needing WIFOM or unusual motive.

[mhsmith0]

From start of day 2 on:

Day 2

Trans
803-812 could be legitimately how he saw the game, but it could also be a way to AtE ("I made myself this game's jackass by WKing one of the mafia d1") and avoid attention, and also to avoid the main wagon likely going through without any effort on his part (KTS) while prepping the way for other mislynches
830 is a notable instance of him essentially giving his blessing to the KTS without being on it, and the posts around that could easily be him throwing dirt on a town read to achieve a lynch eventually (see 833 especially)
840 is a good point by Luna, trans doesn't actually seem to bother re-evaluating his thought process given the karnos flip
954 by luna is a isolation decent point, but if fake emotion is within trans's wolf range (and I know that was discussed in the context of his mini win), then it's basically null for him
970 looked fake
1055 by luna points weakly to trans
1057 by luna is a good philosophical point - I didn't think tenshii was really doing that (the substance behind his "clears" seemed really weak, but it's notable in this context that trans wasn't really working to clear anyone other than tenshii, and was even working to throw dirt on what would be the next potential set of ML's after KTS - making KTS vs Luna a true 1v1 double mislynch, by taking the less popular side (the Luna wagon) is plausible agenda-pursuing there
1116 again consents to a potential KTS lynch, without being on the wagon. easy stance to take while potentially preparing the way for a different mislynch after KTS flips green
1162 essentially consents to a PC lynch (though sarcastically)
1164 is actually a weird post given that PC/KTS were the main wagons. If trans truly felt that the "likeliest three" were both outside PC/KTS, why wasn't he taking a harder stance and working to dissolve one or both of those wagons?
1244 is a null post that could easily be a wolf who basically doesn't want to bother with an unwinnable game
1290 never really got answered; transcend threw some shade but never followed through, backed away quickly after I pushed back on him
1325 does argue against the KTS lynch, but doesn't really work to convince others. the follow-through is weak. like, there are posts that push for an alternate lynch (see 1389 for an example) but there's no real heft to it. no strong argument for why KTS is town, just listing off other possible cases
1435 is a decent post hammer post, but it's fakeable too. 1438 also fakeable, no real emotion to it
1461 is a bit dry for a reaction to being "trolled so hard"
1464 is looking for something to attack, seemingly without bothering to try and understand the point I was making



Giga
875 is an interesting read on PC given giga later votes him
895 isn't good, 898 rosske vote on top of it is weird
902-915 seems like a slightly better sequence for giga than trans;
998 is a good defense of PC
1008 is a good post
1030 seems good on tone especially the quick reaction part
1049 is a good point by tenshii
1065 is a weird, though giga had already voted KTS at that point so it wasn't a naked OMGUS
1125 by Io is a fair point wrt Giga (applies to me too FWIW)
1146 don't like this, though if giga had dropped down to PC or KTS, it's not necessarily unreasonable
1175 is a believable vote hop
1402 is working to create town reads without actively sucking up or trying to manipulate
1437 is fakable, but shows more emotion and reads more genuine, ditto 1439, and the quick reaction in 1443/1444 seems good too
1452 - i dislike town blocs, because they make things too easy for wolves to coast by in. but villagers push those too sometimes. poor post but not condemning.


Overall giga's D2 wasn't nearly as bad as I remember, and trans's D2 not nearly as good.

[mhsmith0]

It's conceivable I guess, but I'm having a really hard time seeing giga being the wolf, and re-reading I'm questioning the reasons I'd had for TR'ing you in the first place.

[mhsmith0]

Day 3
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8217740
(not much notes from D3)

Trans
1574 is a decent post, but it also doesn't really take any kind of strong stance against the PC lynch, especially given 1575 that points out that he was already lynched anyway
1584/6 were good posts, better on tone / seeming honesty than the post KTS hammer ones
1591 decent but fakable too, overall null with some small town points. 1594 seemed good.

Giga
1580/81 seemed good

[mhsmith0]

if you wanna vote me go for it. I'm solidly leaning towards it being you, and if I'm wrong and it's giga then so be it.

[mhsmith0]

I'd say very little this game makes snese with me as the goon.

1) KC's push on KTS with karnos as the #2 is just strange if buddies; like, the advantage to lynching a buddy D2 instead of D1 is nearly zero, and it mainly just makes him look bad if the KTS one went through first.

2) NK's make very little sense from me

3) the work I did to try and actually clear people, most notably D2

etc.

The case against me was always silly IMO.

[mhsmith0]

NKA is part of the discussion. What matters as much is that the NK's seem to fit pretty nicely with what wolf!you would be trying to do. N3 rosske's biggest defender dies, you push there. N4 one of my attackers dies (someone who'd posted with more energy than substance frankly), you push there. It's easy to see NK's dovetailing with whta you're trying to do.

I also look at your stuff today as weak. Serious AtE early on, and then question spamming, but it was weird for you to miss the answers to your questions that I'd made (see http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8337796 ).

I also kind of read http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8338401 as off. Like, I'd agree the last goon played well, but I'd also say that much of the town played poorly. Going from a day 1 wolf lynch to LYLO is annoying, would be even more annoying to outright lose.

[mhsmith0]

the thing is, the townbloc is horrible for mhsmith because if it was entirely town, he's put in auto loss. That requires him to actually make optimal nightkills and think about the game carefully. So, sure Thor could be a WIFOM kill or something, but there needs to be a good reason to think so.

so if it is in fact mhsmith, you need to push him the way he is pushing you because i'm starting to get swayed.

So where is your headspace at this point? Questions for one or the other of us?

[mhsmith0]

Well, what makes you lean me? What makes you lean him? Talk about where your reads are coming from beyond "it's hard". Trans is pretty hard-core AtE'ing right now, which isn't 100% wolf from him, but seems likelier wolf than town. Like, it seems like his basic attitude today has been "holy cow I could actually win and NO WAY will I let myself be lynched when I was so close to winning". I also think it's weird that he's going hard on question spamming and seeming game-solving now, when he could have chosen to do that a while ago. It's such a disconnect from his earlier play that it makes me think that he's going for the win, not in terms of actually finding the last wolf, but just in terms of looking townie and not getting lynched.

[mhsmith0]

And yeah no pressure or anything but i will be extremely gutted if you lynch me after all the effort i exerted and after all the sleepless nights I've had from trying to solve this game. It won't impact our friendship at all though it's a tough hammer and i don't hold anything against you personally.

I'm likely gonna vote very soon and clear you. Enjoy your scum win if I'm wrong. But it's almost next to impossible for you to be scum.

If it's giga I'll be impressed. Annoyed that we as town never really forced giga to do anything meaningful post D1, but I just can't see their D1 as being w/w with karnos, while I can see that from you (the lack of interest in the karnos case was bizarre as a town perspective), and the D2+ stuff doesn't look nearly as clearing on you as I'd originally thought.

[mhsmith0]

I ate in every single game i play. I think I'm a skilled AtEr

So yeah again you just point out any flaw i make then call it scummy.

AtE is somewhat wolfy but nothing close to a lock case by itself. It's weird for it to come in hard today when it wasn't really around in previous days though to nearly the same extent.

It also seems like your game-solving efforts here have been more for show than for real.

I also don't think I've pointed out all your flaws to call them scummy. Some of them, yes, but I think I've been taking a pretty reasonable approach in terms of actually trying to evaluate what you've been doing and plausible motive behind it.

[mhsmith0]

Fuck off I've been game solving all game, not just today, and I'm not gonna let your stupid case on me say otherwise.

Except you really haven't. Thor was blasting you a while ago for not really having substance behind your reads (see the "magic 8 ball" bit), and I'd say that is largely accurate. That part isn't necessarily strongly AI (I've seen bad town do it before), but your tenshii town read was IMO weakly supported (but strongly sold), but it contrasts to what seems like more valid and thoughtful game-solving from giga.

[mhsmith0]

You irritate me so much.

That's ok, I do that a lot

[mhsmith0]

@Transcend, i completely understand and i feel the same way about you

i really do not want this to be an AtE fest though

@Mhsmith, You've made a good case explaining why you wouldn't kill Io. Logically speaking, that makes you more likely to be town than Transcend, who I think has the motive to make all of the kills that happened. What I want Transcend to do is at least explain why that isn't the case because I think it's only fair to use the evidence we've been provided with to find the last goon. The nightkills is where there are unresolved questions, essentially, and I think that's the most important thing for Transcend to look at if he wants to prove it's you because you've been put in an auto-loss position if you are in fact scum.

sorry i was really uninterested this game, mafia is a team effort and i really did not pull my weight this game.

It's the uninterested bit that does make me suspect you, it's theoretically conceivable that you bussed and then coasted behind being uninterested. My problem with that idea is that your D1 really didn't look like it was a bus, either on your end or from karnos's end.

[mhsmith0]

let's take our time then for everyone's sake

Sure.

[mhsmith0]

I love you outside of the game but inside of this game you're genuinely ticking me off.

Pedit: fine give me some time to exert even MORE effort than i already have.

Alternatively you can make both of our lives easier by trusting your initial thoughts, not making me do all that fucking work, voting mhsmith, and winning the game as either faction.

But if that doesn't appease you then i need more time because the content i have was basically my pique.

If you're that sure it should be me, then why haven't you voted me? "Vote Smith for a free win" is such a weird thing to be saying when you're not actually voting. Like, if you're that potentially willing to let wolf!giga get a free win, it's strange for you to be asking for a vote on me instead of actually voting on me. Or do you actually have doubts on giga that you want to talk through?

[mhsmith0]

I'd say that given the fact that there was substantial discussion about the n3 kill motive, you could plausibly make the N4 shot on Ira in order to line up a mislynch on me (though I'd say the same about giga for that particular shot). I'd certainly agree that the N4 shot was plausible by me, but I'd still say that it's simply not what I'd normally do. But IMO the N3 and N5 shots are much more clearing for me; killing Io (who town read me) instead of Thor (the stronger player, and someone who was very checked into the game) simply isn't what I'd want to do in that spot, and WIFOM kills aren't normally my thing at all.

[mhsmith0]

As far as trans/giga kill motive goes, N3 is EASILY something that works for transcend, to get rid of Io and clear the way for an eventual Rosske mislynch, and removing his defender means you don't have to get your hands as dirty to make it happen (though giga picking up on this and helping it along is plausible too)

N4 could be anyone, frankly; a setup kill helps explain why giga is still alive going forward if they're the last goon, and obviously it helps along trans's push on me if he's the wolf instead.

N5 is a really strange kill for me in that spot, though I suppose if you want to argue that I'm doing WIFOM kills, then in for a dime, in for a dollar. But I have good odds to survive a F3 of me/trans/thor; that's basically a three-way situation where everyone suspects everyone else, and thor voting trans or trans voting thor is VERY possible right off the bat.

[mhsmith0]

Don't you think I'd do something like

Off giga let ira mislynch the shit out of smith

Off ira. Me thor tenshii cake walk scum win.

You're not considering all the options

That's a plausible path too. But ira's case on me was always weak, and I'd already pushed back against it, and would be comfortable continuing to push back against it if needed. Killing off someone who is pushing me with a mediocre case, though, posthumously validates the case without having to worry about the actual quality of the case being made. It's an easy kill for anyone who wants me to get mislynched, and it's consistent with your push at the time. It's also plausibly consistent with giga's waffling, I suppose, if they just want to make setup kills to keep town's attention elsewhere and have the opportunity to coast without much scrutiny, but I think that's a bit less likely.

[mhsmith0]

wrt 1991, it wasn't actually a potential hammer, karnos was at like L-2 or L-3 at the time. I'd theoretically agree that hammering for town credit and to cut off discussion might have been a strategy there, but that would require karnos to have no clue about the number of votes on him, which is just bizarre for a wolf to be doing.

It is also NOT consistent with karnos's bussing meta; when karnos busses, he BUSSES, see the links I'd shown earlier. Karnos's interaction with buddies seems to basically be zero or bussing (or interacting with one buddy about the bus of another).

wrt 1992, see my immediate response in 1993, 1994, and later discussion in 2026, 2029, etc.

[mhsmith0]

Day 4
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p8238379

Trans
1614 - opens D4 with a rosske kill after rosske's biggest defender (Io) dies
1651 - decent post, is actually trying to push for rosske lynch
1734 - notable about this point is that it applies to transcend as well; could very easily be an active defense of tenshii that is acutally just trying to defend his own actions. the flip side though is that if trans was town, he could simply be honestly seeing tenshii as doing the same thing he did, and then simply assuming that it was legitimate
1810 - interesting case from wing on trans
1821 - decent post, but defensive in nature
1903-4 is about as villagery as trans got this game I think, ditto 1906
1925 - at first glance shows actual thought. that said, it's fence-sitting wrt thor, and the reasoning behind rosske's votes being scummy...
Thor D1 - "gut" is lazy but not necessarily opportunistic
KTS D1 - "The reason escapes me why either of them voted KTS but memory serves that it was a bad vote" is a strange thing to lead into an argument about something being meaningfully indicative, especially in the context of what was represented as being a factual recounting of events. It's also odd that the whole KTS bit gets dismissed as null.
Io D1: here trans is really just arguing against the vote being meaningfully town-indicative, as opposed to arguing that it was actually wolf-indicative
D1 twilight: scum-reads for inactivity, possibly real but an easy thing to push on. And 'Regardless this aspect shouldn't be analyzed too much, but the fact he was not present for twilight is supporting my case even more. And him not also participating in twilight and his next vote are also reasons to support him as scum." is fence-sitty and wishy-washy.
KTS D2: it's a weak vote, but the rest of the discussion here is narrative
Trans D2: rosske really wasn't "hellbent" on a trans lynch D2
D3: here rosske did push harder on trans. but it wasn't a vote for "berating several people", it was "I know my alignment. Transcend is active lurking, discrediting and manipulating information." I would note that his blaming of trans for the KTS/PC lynches was inaccurate, but the rest of what rosske said wasn't necessarily inaccurate, notably "It seems like he has a tendacy to just put on blinders and push one specific person towards lynch. And then he covers up his blatant subversiveness with empty smokescreens of unfriendliness. We're meant to be too distracted by his negative tone to actually pay attention to his actions in this game."
2067 thor's point about trans continuing to change his stances appears valid - possible bad town, but also possible wolf just pretending to be bad town
2116 - likes tenshii's vote on me but thinks it's wrong
2125 - discrediting post against thor
2178 - trying to arrange a compromise lynch on me, odd given the hard scum read on maria, including at 2213
2294 - somewhat difficult post to make as a wolf
2301 - trans really didn't re-look at tenshii after maria's request




Giga
1644 - hops on board rosske too
1650 - switches to tenshii after the discussion about NK
1824 - substantive, though the focus on on defending their read on rosske
1852/4 - interesting, shows effort to actively meta read trans
1856 - fence-sitting post
1964/5 - wing makes a good point wrt giga, though giga's repsonse in 1971 eats away at most of the points
2137 - good response from giga to trans
2249 - obviously she's wrong about one of the two, but notable that she's stronger TR on giga than trans


D4 again looks townier from giga than trans. This one not a slam-dunk day, but that 1925 looks worse after really digging into it I think.

[mhsmith0]

i don't get how thor could possibly be scum here...

walk me through that... i would also like to know why iraon suspects you.

When Ira was NK'd, this question never got answered. It's conceivable that this was part of NK motive. It's more obvious from trans, but it's possible that giga simply wanted that to hang over things without really getting dealt with.

[mhsmith0]

Most people psychologically would say answer B but karnos was clearly ailing and hard defending him like I did would mean that I'd have to survive 5 lynches with that attached to me. I don't know how I would've played this as wolf but personally,

I feel like I would possibly softbus or ignore karnos if he was in deep shit as opposed to hard defending him.

That was sincerely just an error on my behalf for using falsified meta hence why I've been reluctant to trust any meta this game, because it f***ed me day 1.

This is actually a really interesting point, especially since for the most part on day 1 Transcend DID ignore karnos. He gave a pretty intellectually lazy town read, repeated it a few times, and then spent the bulk majority of his energy pursuing alternative lynches. So that seems to be reasonably in line with his own description of how he'd have approached the game. The "hard defense" bit differs, of course, but one of the interesting things about mafia is that if you can shut down the momentum against someone, you never know where town can end up pissing off to instead, and then you get a mislynch, and it becomes harder to figure out what's going on, and things go downhill from there.

[mhsmith0]

I don't think it's Transcend because the only reasons I scumread him is

lack of substantive reasons for pushes, filler posts, and trying to use fear as a defense

. But the former was townread by Thor, and the latter two was never brought up by anybody, so it's probably just a trivial point.

These are actually decent reasons, and the fact that no one brought it up makes it more rather than less suspicious (they're potentially easy things for wolves to attack).