Newbie 1741 - Mafia

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nn30
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Post Post #6  (isolation #0)  » Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:03 am

Hey!

I've played a number of 'mafia games' in real life. The Resistance, a Hitler themed game, and werewolf. Never mafia or on this forum though.

nn30
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Post Post #7  (isolation #1)  » Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:17 am

You are correct - we have either the 'A' setup or the '2' setup.

So town will either have a cop (can identify one person per night) or a doctor (protect one person per night).

In either setup they get to protect one person. During the day - if a target becomes abundantly clear (say, a townie claims a PR) - we should target someone else that night. I don't want to lose a kill to protection because we behaved too rationally.

It's not likely that we'll be targeted during day 1. Though, we should let someone else determine the lynching (pushing too hard for a lynch on day one seems kind of scummy).

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Post Post #8  (isolation #2)  » Sat Sep 17, 2016 11:20 am

I think we shouldn't behave buddy buddy by accident during the day phase.

That being said, one of us should push for a 'no lynch' day one. Buys that person some goodwill.

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Post Post #16  (isolation #3)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:55 pm

Hey! Good job so far. Town has no idea what's going on. Copy pasted since I'll be at a wedding later. (Edit: Back from the wedding btw).

I'm not sure why the heat on my wagon died (it really had no reason to - was my explaining really that effective)?

People we shouldn't kill - Algebra / Papa / Titus. Algebra will die on D2 most likely, Papa is probably trying to get protection on him with his comments (or encouraging us to kill him). Either way I don't want to play into that. Titus should live because she's a village idiot (lol). She'll probably win us the game if she sticks around (or maybe get herself lynched D3).

I think I have a way to throw some shade on Empoof. He jumped on the Shadow wagon without much explanation (literally right after Papa made his post about information control). I can make it seem like he was hopping on an easy mislynch. Plus he bailed on lynching me for no good reason (another thing I can say to make it seem like he was going for the easiest wagon). I won't pull this out 100% though - it only looks like he pulled pressure off of Algebra. Since Algebra is dying first (and won't come up red) the timing on this may never be ideal.

I think the kill is between Arona and Dunhally. I think I want to kill Dunn - her reads have been more accurate so far. What are your thoughts?

I think I'm likely to die D3 once Algebra goes down. *shrug* Not much we can do about that. If the winds shift that way it may not be wise to defend me given your previous comments about me.

What are your thoughts so far?

nn30
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Post Post #17  (isolation #4)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 7:58 pm

Dunno where Titus got the idea I'd be gone till Tuesday - my original post said Friday - Sunday morning.

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Post Post #21  (isolation #5)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:01 pm

So I don't know how accurate her wiki is, but Titus has a 40% win rate as town (according to it). This is also on her wiki (that or I remember it when doing Meta reads of her past games). She's admitted to preferring being scum because she's better at it.

IMO 40% winrate as town means she's doing something to hinder her team - a balanced game would leave her at 50/50. I think we shouldn't NK her. The most likely D3 mislynch I see is on her (due to Shaddowez insistence that she's scum - gives us some proven town thought processes to jump off from).


Why do you think papa Algebra and Poof are vanillas? What are the tells for power roles (or where can I read some theory regarding this).

Also - on the off chance that Algebra isn't a vanilla - you should do the kill tonight. I'm most likely to be investigated IMO.

Titus seems to like me - she's supportive of what I have to say (after she quit tunneling me). I think she can be swayed to agree with me (or she can incorrectly tunnel someone and I can jump on her wagon with her).

I'm fine with an Arona lynch. An Empoof lynch scares me - he jumped into the game and immediately had me as his #1 scumread. That could be linked back to be fairly easily.



I think that Papa Zito would be my target for a role block. Of the people in the town, he's the most conf town of all and I think that once he makes up his mind on something the town will be with him. I want to deny him any information we can.

Titus is most likely to interrogate one of us. She's the pushiest.

nn30
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Post Post #22  (isolation #6)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:58 pm

I think Papa could be a 1-shot bullet proof - maybe he's attempting to get us to kill him?

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Post Post #24  (isolation #7)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:38 pm

Warning: smoked some weed. Everything in this post should be taken with a grain of salt.

If I were Dunhally (or town) I'd be upset this logic wasn't followed.

Dun 338: "Since I don't have any more reasons not to vote VOTE: algebra
And I'll state it: my worry with the Shaddow vote is that, as I have stated, I don't see why scumShaddow would do what he did if he's not partnered with algebra or nn30 (much less probable). I think algebra's alignment will teach us more on this matter. In addition, I dislike leaving algebra for tomorrow because one of two events will happen: we decide from the start that algebra is tomorrow's lynch no matter what, which is bad play or we finally lynch someone else and algebra will keep being a distraction (at least to me).
I'll elaborate more on that when I have time (probably tomorrow if the day has not ended)."

So upset that I'd be suspicious of the people that were on the Shadow wagon reading into how all that went down. Lynching Shadow with the knowledge that Algebra was likely tomorrow's lynch is a very advantageous scenario for scum.

I think Algebra is most likely to be investigated tbh. He's so obviously tomorrow's lynch that his alignment would be a good one to know - if I were playing cop 80% chance I investigate him.

Look for someone to defend (or ignore or jump on a counter wagon) him tomorrow - it could be a tell.

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Post Post #25  (isolation #8)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Potential "moon logic" moment - could be overthinking things.

What if you defend Algebra. As it stands I'm very concerned about day 3 if Algebra is the D2 lynch. Right now I'm the most logical (at least to my eyes) person to lynch. Once Algebra flips town everyone is going to go back to the point where they were sure either myself or Algebra were scum. That means the game is going to on at least 2 more day phases.

The upside is we'd permanently get one of the townies on your side (Algrebra). To make a survivor analogy, if we're down to the final 3 Algebra would take you with him to the final two.

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Post Post #27  (isolation #9)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:00 pm

You could phrase it like this.

We know either Nn30 or Algebra are scummy. Finding the alignment of one likely points to the alignment of the other.

We played day 1 as if Algebra was absolutely the day 2 kill.

What if we lynch Nn30 instead - we gain the same information and we play day two differently than scum were expecting, potentially throwing off plans.


The more I think about it the more I think we should just let Algebra swing and play it by ear. It's possible we're trying to get too fancy.

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Post Post #29  (isolation #10)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:31 pm

..."and since I pushed an nn lynch, you'll look like a townie."

Not sure how I feel about this. All the theory I've read has talked about scum bussing each other as being overrated. What do we do if the 1 scum among nn/Algebra logic gets brought back up? No matter how townie I look due to you bussing me, that logic isn't going away.

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Post Post #32  (isolation #11)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:07 am

Let's decide on what to do in the night.

Kill - Arona. Role block - Papa.

Thoughts?

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Post Post #35  (isolation #12)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:03 pm

You're right about passive not winning us the game.

Whatever we do (defend Algebra tomorrow or let him hand and play for day 3) we need to have an active approach to tomorrow's day phase.

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Post Post #37  (isolation #13)  » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:18 pm

Any reads on the cop?

D3 is rough in your scenario. I don't see you going down before Algebra.

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Post Post #41  (isolation #14)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:32 pm

A few things.

There's a 1-shot bulletproof.

I'm not being heavily scum read.

I think at day start you should wait long enough to get a feel for what the town is doing. If they're going to go after me, so be it. If not...

We may have a shot at playing off of Titus' investigating Zito.

My plan for tomorrow, if it isn't me, is to continually keep saying are you sure? We lose here if we're wrong. Are you sure (and giving reasons of course.)
Could buy me some town cred.

Any read on the 1 shot bp? My guess is Zito - he kept saying he tried to get killed. It's like he wanted us to target him.

Dunhally would be a good one lynch. She's heavily town read.

I'll do ISO's tomorrow and see if there's anyone we could frame.

WOOH we made it to LYLO.

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Post Post #43  (isolation #15)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:55 pm

Don't be the one to start it on me then.

Hop on quickly if someone else singles me out. Stay silent otherwise.

If not, stand back and let me fan the Zito / Titus flames. Worst case scenario it blows back on me, I get lynched, and we're where we thought we'd be anyways.

Thoughts on the NK?

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Post Post #48  (isolation #16)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:31 am

Bussing me is fine, I just don't want it to be the go to move is all. Why complicate things if we could win tomorrow, right?

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Post Post #49  (isolation #17)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:34 am

If Dunny is BP, no counter claim would hold weight. I'm still fairly certain it's Zito though.

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Post Post #50  (isolation #18)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 12:53 pm

I think a Dunhallym NK is our best option. She's a fan of Titus / Nn30 scumteam. If I'm lynched first Titus will be an easy lynch next.

This does remove someone who townreads you though...

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Post Post #51  (isolation #19)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:00 pm

Also, Empoof already scumreads Zito slightly. Another reason to leave him live.

It's not impossible that Zito could get lynched tomorrow (though I probably can't go for that myself given my defense of him yesterday). Between Zito & Titus it may even be likely to happen without much input from us.

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Post Post #52  (isolation #20)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:01 pm

In post 42, Morning Tweet wrote:The general consensus feels like "There's one scum in Morning/nn30, and one in Titus/Papa/Empoof".

If I continue playing the logic angle then you'd be my probable target. I'm fairly sure either you'll be singled out tomorrow or Papa/Titus will duel to the very end.


Did you mean "there's one scum in Nn30 / Algebra?"

Fairly certain you haven't been scumread yet.

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Post Post #55  (isolation #21)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:14 pm

I like your plan a lot, we should stick with it.

Another thought - if anyone places a vote on someone who isn't myself or you, we win the game (assuming we're both on and vote before an unvote happens).

If this scenario, how do you want to play it? Meaning - how do you want to verify that we're both online simultaneously?

You've given me a thought as well.

Context: I was playing a werewolf variant where the town votes weren't to lynch, they were to decide if someone was town or scum. The penalty for voting incorrectly meant you, the individual who voted incorrectly, dies. Voting correctly means you get to live.

I was scum this game. Someone, admittedly town read, that he should be the first vote and that everyone should say he's town. I responded by saying that if we're wrong, we (town) lose the game right there. The observation got me enough town cred to go deep and win the game.

My idea for this game - myself, or you, bring up the fact that placing even a single vote could lose town the game (since two scum could jump on the wagon and secure a ML). Bringing this up could buy this person a significant amount of town cred.

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Post Post #56  (isolation #22)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:37 pm

I need a backup plan incase my defense of Zito actually works.

Who do I scum hunt?

I've townread basically everyone but you at this point.

I guess I could 180 on Titus.

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Post Post #59  (isolation #23)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:00 pm

4-5 minute plan - check.

In case we forget.

VOTE: Nn30 kills dunhally

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Post Post #62  (isolation #24)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:28 pm

We could role block dunny. Does roleblock prevent 1-shot bp?

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Post Post #64  (isolation #25)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:39 pm

Morning - I say you role block xalxe. Cause the lols.

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Post Post #66  (isolation #26)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:17 pm

That sounds like a power up, not a role block :)


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