Newbie 1742 Mafia Topic

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Post Post #24 (isolation #0) » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:17 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Hi Shadowlancer. Great to finally get a chance to talk to you!

Okay, since we're both mafia goons and Huntress was a 1X BP, we're looking at row three. There's a tracker still out there who we need to eliminate tonight.

We need to think about who should perform the kill. Here are the worst case scenarios if I do it:

Running through scenarios where I perform the kill and get tracked.

Spoiler: Scenarios
If Accountant is the tracker:

Option #1: I kill Scarlet. I get lynched, you kill Accountant. You have an easy three-way with Icy and Penguin. We win.

Option #2: I kill Icy. I get tracked, you kill Accountant. You have a three way with Scarlet and Penguin. Won't win.
Option #3: I kill Penguin. I get tracked, you kill Accountant. You have a three way with Scarlet and Icy. Won't win.


If Icy is the tracker:

Option #1: I kill Scarlet. I get lynched, you kill Icy. You have a three way with Accountant and Penguin. We win.

Option #2: I kill Penguin. I get lynched, you kill Icy. You have a three way between Scarlet and Accountant. We might win if you sell the BlackVoid/Accountant team.

Option #3: I kill Accountant. I get lynched, you kill Icy. You have a tough three way with Scarlet and Penguin. Won't win.


If Penguin is the tracker:

Option #1: I kill Scarlet. I get lynched, you kill Penguin. You/Accountant/Icy. Won't win.

Option #2: I kill Accountant. I get lynched, you kill Penguin. You/Scarlet/Icy. Tossup.

Option #3: I kill Icy. I get lynched, you kill Penguin. You/Accountant/Scarlet. Tossup.


If Scarlet is the tracker:

Option #1: I kill Penguin. I get lynched, you kill Scarlet. You/Accountant/Icy. Won't win.

Option #2: I kill Accountant. I get lynched, you kill Scarlet. You/Penguin/Icy. Easy win.
Option #3: I kill Icy. I get lynched, you kill Scarlet. You/Penguin/Accountant. Easy win.


Clearly, our best kill here is Scarlet. If he's the tracker, brilliant. If Accountant or Icy is the tracker and tracks me, you kill them next and win three way easily. The only downfall is if Penguin is the tracker and tracks me. In that case, we'll probably lose.

I think it's actually best if you perform the kill since people are townreading you so you likely won't be tracked.
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Post Post #25 (isolation #1) » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:23 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

I spent a good portion of D2 thinking Icy was the doc because he was so obsessed with the nightkill. Clearly my PR-senses are out-of-whack. I'll read over the ISOs of the remaining four players and let you know. You could have a point that it's indeed Penguin.

Also, can you let me know what times you are generally going to be online and what your time zone is? If we see an opportunity to quickhammer, we should think about whether to take it or slow roll it.
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Post Post #28 (isolation #2) » Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:33 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

In post 26, Shadowlancerx wrote:Why shouldn't we just kill the suspected tracker here?
We should. Those possibilities are the worst case scenarios if we both a) wind up being wrong on who the tracker is, AND b) the tracker tracks me to the kill in the event that I perform it.
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Post Post #29 (isolation #3) » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:12 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

I'm reading Penguin's ISO and I think you might be right.
In post 228, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 227, Accountant wrote:No - we don't want the scum killing investigatives and preventing them from bringing their investigations and info to the table the next day. Plus, if we lynch Huntress, it won't be LyLo.
How do you know we're in a setup with investigatives?
In post 231, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 230, Accountant wrote:It's just not optimal to massclaim when we can just lynch huntress and avert lylo in the first place
No. I get that. It's just that now you and Shadow have both commented pretty specifically on our setup. It's off-putting.

I also found these little tidbits:
In post 211, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 207, Shadowlancerx wrote:is it possible hunt is a roleblocker
Why do you think this?
In post 213, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 212, Shadowlancerx wrote:Because Scarlet's move makes no sense unless there is some gain, and the setup is as of yet unknown to me.
But, why that specific role?
Only the tracker knows that there is no roleblocker so the skepticism of a roleblocker existing could point to a tracker trying to hunt for potential scum trying to fake-claim PRs.

Not wanting to discuss reads in twilight could be a sign that he didn't want to give away who he intended to track.

So basically I agree. Penguin is probably the tracker. We should be killing Penguin and it's best if you perform the kill.

I'm going to go over Accountant's, Scarlet's, and Icy's posts to see if they crumbed anything just to make sure. Since Accountant actively suggested that he be lynched, I'm guessing it's not him.
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Post Post #30 (isolation #4) » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:04 pm

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Scarlet also suggested that he be lynched which points away from a power role but he seems so new to mafia in general that I don't know if it's even a reliable tell.

So, Penguin probably is the tracker. Accountant and Scarlet are likely VTs. Going to look over Icy next.
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Post Post #32 (isolation #5) » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:00 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

My internet has been really shitty and intermittent lately so it'd be a bad idea to make any plan where I throw down the hammer.

I think there's way too much potential for someone to unvote if they see one of us make a bad vote. It's probably best if we just let the votes fall and some time pass until a point where town starts thinking that scum would have quickhammered.

As far as a tracker claim for me: I could say anything for N1. My predecessor made a single post D1 and I didn't replace in until after D2 started. Tonight I would track Scarlet obviously because once I see the Huntress flip, that would tell me that Scarlet hopped onto a mislynch wagon and is the most likely scum. I'd say Scarlet visited no one.

Problem is, I'm almost certain to be tracked. Anyone pushing the me/Accountant team will realize that since Accountant is the more widely suspected, a scumteam of me/Accountant would involve me making the kill. If Icy thinks it's me and Penguin, he'll probably still track me. Scarlet might track me based on how much I pushed him. Accountant is paranoid of me so will probably track me.
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Post Post #36 (isolation #6) » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:03 pm

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Assuming Penguin actually is the tracker (otherwise you'd have to kill whoever the tracker is next):

1. Accountant/Icy/Shadowlancer - Tossup. Icy is smart and can see that Accountant is town. Your best bet is push him and get Accountant to vote the other way. Maybe point out that I questioned Icy a bit but then backtracked and never went anywhere with it.

2. Accountant/Scarlet/Shadowlancer - You've got a really good chance of getting Scarlet to vote Accountant here. The other way around will be hard since I pushed Scarlet a lot. Just push the me/Accountant pairing.

3. Icy/Scarlet/Shadowlancer - This will be a crapshoot. Neither really suspects the other.

Basically, don't kill Accountant. You've got a chance at both getting him to vote wrong as well as getting him lynched by tying him to me. Best choose between Icy and Scarlet based on how D3 turns out.
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Post Post #38 (isolation #7) » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:20 pm

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There were two reads Accountant was very sure about and pushed the hardest: Huntress and Icy. Since he was wrong about Huntress, subtly suggesting that he was at least right about Icy might be a great appeal-to-ego because if it's not Icy, then all of his reads were wrong. If you can subconsciously make him WANT Icy to be scum, you've got it in the bag.
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Post Post #41 (isolation #8) » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:52 am

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Sweet. The main angle I'm going to push is Scarlet's opportunistic vote for Huntress. Now that we know Huntress was town, Scarlet's vote doesn't really make sense since he was more suspicious of Accountant than Huntress.

Unless Accountant attacks me, we're best off if I push Scarlet and you push Accountant. I'd try and get on Accountant's side. Icy is a wildcard and I'm not sure how I'd approach him but I suppose I'll go with the flow.
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Post Post #45 (isolation #9) » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:21 am

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If I can sell someone as your partner and you get a lot of pressure, I'll work my way into a bus. But I think our best shot is winning outright tomorrow so my main focus will be on trying to get a townie mislynched.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #10) » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:25 pm

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Well, you could use that as ammunition for a me/Accountant team, and I could say that Scarlet was in on both mislynches.

This somewhat "clears" you and Icy but it's not a slam dunk but sure bringing it up can't hurt.
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Post Post #51 (isolation #11) » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:07 pm

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Hey Shadowlancer - I was thinking about this while I read a recently completed game where two mafia members had the opportunity to quickhammer and missed it.

Given I'll be checking in fairly often, it may not be a bad idea for you to vote one of Accountant, Icy, or Scarlet depending on who is likely to be voted by another town. You shouldn't do this if anyone suspects you though. But if someone reads as solidly town, it may be a good idea to vote another townie so that the person townreading you will choose to vote them over you. That way, I'd hammer whenever I see their vote and it removed the need for us to co-ordinate anything.
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Post Post #60 (isolation #12) » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:55 pm

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Alright, just do what you feel is best. Slow roll the hammer but if someone votes and leaves it for several hours, they probably aren't at their computer anymore so maybe ask me a question or something and you'll be able to see if I'm on and then we can hammer. But only if the vote's been on for a while. If it's 30 minutes after they voted, chances are they are at the comp hitting refresh.
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Post Post #62 (isolation #13) » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:00 pm

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Alright, let's get 'em.
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