Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

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Post Post #35  (isolation #0)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:15 pm

In post 31, Zoronos wrote:Only person who has both posted in thread and does not have an RVS vote.


Not the only one!

VOTE: Zoronos

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Post Post #339  (isolation #1)  » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:29 pm

My apologies to everyone--I overestimated the amount of free time that I would have this week. Fortunately, this is a short-term problem, and I expect to return in roughly 12 hours with sufficient time to get completely caught up.

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Post Post #351  (isolation #2)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:57 am

I find both PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald to be suspicious.

I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in . PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in and ).

The rapid change between (Grendel is either Town playing poorly or Mafia) and (Grendel is Town) is also suspicious to me. While I agree that the last line of sounds more like the kind of thing that Grendel would say as Town than as Mafia, the speed of reversal from the aggression in the earlier posts makes me believe that the aggression was feigned.

UNVOTE: Zoronos
VOTE: PenguinPower

---
@implosion
I see your case that PenguinPower is Town in . I think that there's a chance that some of the emotions that you've assigned to PenguinPower (making him more likely to be Town) are feigned here. Could you link me to the previous game that you mentioned? I hesitate to guess before reading, but I could speculate a few reasons that PenguinPower, as Mafia, would respond differently to Grendel in this game than to you in the other.
---

I could perhaps note a few additional minor points against Gamma Emerald. The major points are all either associative or have been discussed already (or both).

@Gamma Emerald
In you thought that Zoronos was suspicious for being defensive. What do you think of PenguinPower in ?

---
I'm out of time for this interval. I'll back in a few hours to discuss why I'm reading implosion, Grendel, and nn30 as Town (I could tentatively add eagerSnake and Zoronos as well).

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Post Post #489  (isolation #3)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:20 pm

@Zoronos
In post 362, Zoronos wrote:
In post 351, Dierfire wrote:The rapid change between 221 (Grendel is either Town playing poorly or Mafia) and 242 (Grendel is Town) is also suspicious to me. While I agree that the last line of 241 sounds more like the kind of thing that Grendel would say as Town than as Mafia, the speed of reversal from the aggression in the earlier posts makes me believe that the aggression was feigned.


Why specifically is that change suspicious? He was clearly entertaining the possibility of town in 221 (you summarized it above, 'Town playing poorly or Mafia'), and Grendel posted a whole bunch in between those two posts. Explain your thinking to me.


In , PenguinPower is saying (as an immediate response to Grendel's post above) that the case that Grendel presents against PenguinPower is groundless, and that this makes Grendel either Town playing poorly or Mafia. The phrasing communicates a certain level of aggressive pushback. When I read , the aggressive pushback seems to have disappeared (while the essence of the argument that Grendel's suspicions are unfounded remains). To me, this suggests that was intended to simulate an emotional reaction. I'm also not sure that I see anything from Grendel in the intervening posts that would persuasively point to Town alignment for someone who had such a strong feeling that Grendel was playing so poorly as to possibly be masking Mafia intent, but the tonal shift is the main point.

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Post Post #490  (isolation #4)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:20 pm

@MariaR
In post 354, MariaR wrote:Consider my vote on PP for now I'm uneasy for some reason but that's where I feel like voting.

In post 367, MariaR wrote:to fast a wagon for someone not very scummy nope not doing it

I'm aware that you've expressed reluctance to explain reasons for reads, but could you update me on where you are with PenguinPower?

In post 370, MariaR wrote:VOTE: Gamma

oh no way am I letting you go
Pedit: wtfff


Also, I didn't understand this post. Was this a reaction to ?

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Post Post #491  (isolation #5)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:20 pm

@Grendel
In post 434, Grendel wrote:Does anybody have some hypothetical scum teams cooked up?

I can't I.D. third scum for my scum team and want to hear some interactions people may have caught between people.

A lot of people I originally thought could be with Penguin were, or are, on his wagon.


As I've outlined (), I think that Gamma Emerald looks like a viable partner for PenguinPower. I also want to flag the quote below as suspicious, but I think that it's probably not productive to think too hard about this from an associative perspective right now.

In post 432, PenguinPower wrote:Btw...not liking Slandaar right now. Hate. Absolutely hate. Prodging.


The timing is weird to me (¿why is the absence of Slandaar provoking absolute hate at this point?) and feels more like PenguinPower is looking for something to say than like PenguinPower has a real comment on Slandaar at this point.

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Post Post #514  (isolation #6)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:37 pm

@Gamma Emerald
In post 495, Gamma Emerald wrote:How are me and PP scum together?

I've already referred to for this. Did you have a question or a comment about my reasoning there?

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Post Post #515  (isolation #7)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:38 pm

@PenguinPower
In post 497, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 491, Dierfire wrote:The timing is weird to me (¿why is the absence of Slandaar provoking absolute hate at this point?) and feels more like PenguinPower is looking for something to say than like PenguinPower has a real comment on Slandaar at this point.


Um, because I noticed it then? Should I have brought up before then?


I think that it's strange for you to be noticing it then, yes. My reaction in that position would have been to say something about players voting for me. Given the tone of your , I take it that you find most players voting for you likely to be Town?

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Post Post #517  (isolation #8)  » Fri Oct 07, 2016 10:42 pm

I'm not seeing that comment as especially unlikely to come from a Mafia partner. It casts aspersions on the wagon without actually defending PenguinPower directly.

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Post Post #531  (isolation #9)  » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:31 am

@PenguinPower
In post 519, PenguinPower wrote:That's a strange conclusion. I think there a some town on my wagon that seem to be doing worthwhile things, and if my lynch gets them moving on the right track, then...yeah. String me up.

Is it not an accurate conclusion? Which players on your wagon are Town doing worthwhile things? Which are suspicious folk?

EDIT: Ha ha, that was my question!

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Post Post #532  (isolation #10)  » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:32 am

@Grendel
In post 520, Grendel wrote:If you could explain these reads soon that'd be nice-


Sorry, I got distracted. Here is my reasoning.

implosion has a few consistencies of thought. I liked the vote for Lil Uzi Vert in , and the reaction to Gamma Emerald in . These are consistent with the evolving reads presented in (implosion was initially suspicious of Grendel, Zoronos, and eagerSnake, so it makes sense that he would move his vote to a wagon like Lil Uzi Vert).
He also has good points on Gamma (, , ).
Lastly, the read on PenguinPower given in is thoughtful and makes clear effort to understand motivations for actions (although I suspect that when I read the game in question I will be able to come up with at least two reasons for the mismatch).

As a side note, I recall implosion as a source of quality analysis in a prior game (link--I'm not counting Mini 1762 because I never actually played). I'm therefore aware of what implosion said in ; still, I think that these points make implosion more likely to be Town.

nn30 is a seemingly uncontroversial read, so I'll be brief. The look at prior games in indicates a certain amount of motivation to discover information. I also agree with points raised by Zoronos in .

As for you (Grendel), I think that your RQS is probably not indicative of alignment, but your reaction to those who question RQS (in particular the last line of your ) seems more likely to come from a Town player (there's a path of less resistance if you're Mafia just looking to fabricate some reads). Your case on PenguinPower agrees with my read and does not strike me as likely to come from a Mafia partner (unlike Gamma Emerald); this is further reinforced by the way that PenguinPower responds to you.

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Post Post #533  (isolation #11)  » Sat Oct 08, 2016 12:32 am

@Zoronos
In post 523, Zoronos wrote:So, you're either missing an obvious cause for the tone shift, or not understanding the tone shift. There is a better case available against Penguin (in my mind), so I'm really curious why you chose this specific case.


I suppose that the best explanation that I could give is this: I'm not seeing the tone shift from aggressive to dismissive, but more like aggressive/dismissive to avoidant.
If you see a better case (and if it doesn't look to be related to my existing line of questioning), I would like to hear it (particularly given your most recent posting).

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Post Post #595  (isolation #12)  » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:34 pm

I'm hearing what other players are saying about PenguinPower, and I'm willing to consider that I'm wrong about his tone. However, I reviewed the game linked by implosion and I don't find it inconsistent with the way that PenguinPower is playing in this one. Among other things, I note that in this game Grendel had attracted substantial negative reactions from other players with regard to the RQS opening (which makes it relatively safe for PenguinPower to push the line "bad Town or Mafia" here). In that game, PenguinPower attracted suspicion mainly from implosion, who gave clear and detailed reasoning that was received well by other players (at one point two players followed implosion without adding much to the case, implying that implosion had some standing--it is also notable that PenguinPower characterized implosion as "manipulative" in that game).

I also think that this point still stands (I'm adding that the case in pulls mostly from material before ):

In post 351, Dierfire wrote:I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in . PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in and ).


---
@Zoronos
In post 534, Zoronos wrote:I also think your commentary in is off base. It's NAI (in my opinion) for him to note it. He responded to Grendel (in a frustrated fashion), posted about an AFK, and then went right back to talking to Grendel. It wasn't some epic deflection.


I don't recall characterizing it as epic, but I still think that it reads as a deflection, not from talking to Grendel (who is Town as of ) but from talking about other players voting for him. In other words, I think that PenguinPower "noticing" an AFK player at that moment is the sort of thing that is less likely to come from a player trying to read alignments and more likely from a player looking for something to say.

---
Since I still think that the way that Gamma Emerald approaches PenguinPower looks like a Mafia partner (refresher below), I'm willing to move my vote if there is significant resistance on PenguinPower.

Spoiler: Refresher
Gamma Emerald starts by objecting to the speed of the wagon on PenguinPower:
In post 365, Gamma Emerald wrote:L-1 in 3 days. Nice quickwagon.

In post 376, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 367, MariaR wrote:to fast a wagon for someone not very scummy nope not doing it

My specific problem is the fact we were already on intent to hammer with Maria having intent.


However, shortly afterward Gamma Emerald feels the need to join the wagon (and seemed to suggest that he was only waiting for a VC to do so earlier, which makes the comment about the wagon speed strange):
In post 442, Gamma Emerald wrote:You trying to call his methodology bad. Also, as Grendel mentioned, you've seemed to be trying to remain in popular opinion.
Now that we have a VC:
VOTE: PenguinPower
And I didn't say you were town, that statement before was sarcastic. I had already been townleaning Implosion. Not the same case with you.

In post 447, Gamma Emerald wrote:You only did RQS after others had done it, after complaining about it.


It is also worth noting that PenguinPower answered Grendel's questions in , so my interpretation is that Gamma Emerald went looking for an excuse to vote for PenguinPower.

Later, the read appears to solidify:

In post 478, Gamma Emerald wrote:And boring just helped me explain part of my scum read on PP. He feels flippant in a scummy way.

In post 481, Gamma Emerald wrote:Any doubts I had about PP just vanished.


Shortly thereafter, however, the story is again that Gamma Emerald only didn't care for the speed of the wagon (contradicts the "I was only waiting for a VC to join" sentiment above), and the idea that PenguinPower is flippant in a suspicious way has gone:

In post 506, Gamma Emerald wrote:I wasn't against it, just against the fact he was run up so fast.
I'm actually rethinking my scumread on PP because of that wagon looking back.
UNVOTE:


This is also immediately after he noticed that I was suspicious that he and PenguinPower were both Mafia ().

From there, Gamma Emerald shifts from finding PenguinPower suspicious to looking for Mafia on his wagon:

In post 512, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm feeling like the most likely person to be scum on PP's wagon was Dierfire.


Finally, Gamma Emerald decides that PenguinPower was not actually suspicious to begin with (until the time that I flip Town):
In post 570, Gamma Emerald wrote:My read changed after my review of PP's wagon. I didn't find his vote particularly scummy.
As for Dierfire, I think he is the most likely scum on PP's wagon. His grouping of me and PP feels like throwing shade on us. This makes me think PP is town. If Dier flips town I'll reconsider my PP read.


It's also noteworthy here that my reasons for reading Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower are not addressed (just "throwing shade" and that's it).

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Post Post #596  (isolation #13)  » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:38 pm

@Prism
Could you explain in more detail why a noncommittal read on MariaR is suspicious to you, and why the opinion of boring given in is suspicious? The former is reasonable to me given that MariaR hasn't been a central figure in this game so far, and the latter seems consistent with the reasoning in .

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Post Post #1115  (isolation #14)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:30 am

Why have you all written 21 pages since yesterday? I've read through a few pages, but I simply will not be able to make the time to read that much material thoroughly until tomorrow (and it would be tremendously convenient to not have another 21 pages written between then and now).

I'm aware that Shadow_step is claiming Ascetic, which I assume is why eagerSnake has a wagon now. I don't know why Lil Uzi Vert is voting for Shadow_step--I would think that a Mafia player would be unlikely to try to counter the claim from eagerSnake there.

I also see that boring is the leading wagon, which I assume will be discussed in the pages that I haven't read.

---
@boring
In post 598, boring wrote:@Deirfire - I just read that whole post, and I can't tell if you're justifying your vote on PP, or moving away from it. Can you give us a thesis statement?

I was both justifying my vote on PenguinPower and expressing willingness to vote for Gamma Emerald as well. I guess that we'll see whether anything changes when I get caught up.

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Post Post #1297  (isolation #15)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:23 pm

All right, I've caught up.

I am virtually certain that Shadow_step has the Ascetic modifier, regardless of alignment (he was clearly setting up to counter the claim as soon as eagerSnake made it), and very confident that Shadow_step is Town (Mafia has low incentive to counter the claim). With eagerSnake, I was half expecting him to withdraw the claim; the fact that he hasn't rules out some Town plays (Bulletproof or Miller trying to draw the kill were my first thoughts, I also thought of Wary but I don't know if that's common on this site because I can't find it in the Wiki--certainly it's not Normal). It also weighs against some Mafia plays (I agree with the idea that a Mafia Ascetic role is powerful and probably unlikely to claim early without withdrawing the claim later, so I'd find a Mafia Goon more likely).

A few points since the claim make me suspicious of eagerSnake. First, and most obviously, eagerSnake actively resisted attempts by Zoronos ( and others) and nn30 () to provide content that would help us judge his alignment independently of the Ascetic claim. This seems consistent with a Mafia player in significant danger of being lynched and trying to avoid giving associative information (discussion of possible self-vote in is also consistent with that thought process). The vote on implosion in is also strange given that boring is the larger wagon and was the player eagerSnake was most confidently reading as Mafia (I don't see any change from ). Of course, I think that the reasons to vote for boring didn't hold much water in the first place (next post post after next), which is also suspicious (I'm not buying that eagerSnake was simply too uncertain to make a meaningful case--in that event, he should have been working at improving his reads rather than repetitively insisting that he was Town).

UNVOTE: PenguinPower
VOTE: eagerSnake

I want a full claim from eagerSnake.

I saw someone else ask this and get the "fishing" dodge, so to be clear: I am inclined to lynch eagerSnake unless he has some additional reason that we should leave him alive.

It seems unlikely to me that PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald are both Mafia with eagerSnake, but either one could be.

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Post Post #1298  (isolation #16)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:23 pm

@Prism
In post 1253, Prism wrote:I'd rather hear why someone that isn't implosion disagree with the points I've made about implosion.


I'm still not suspicious of implosion.
I'm not suspicious of his read on MariaR in ; as he said in in , he committed to other reads, so I'm not at all bothered by his difficulty reading one player (especially since MariaR had not given much that would help sort alignment).
I'll also throw this quote in about the read on boring:

In post 562, implosion wrote:I'm tempted to throw boring into my scumpile for reasons that I'm not sure have merit.


I don't find the discussion of those reasons suspicious; I'm understanding your argument that it doesn't make sense to have a problem with the reads that boring gave because they overlap with those given by implosion, but I think that it's perfectly fine to think that a Mafia player would give "easy" reads on Town players.

These things could come from a Mafia player, but I don't see any specific reason to think that they are coming from Mafia rather than Town here, and I'm sticking to the reasons that I gave for implosion as Town in .

In post 1243, Prism wrote:I'm also disturbed by the fact that virtually no one has read me for alignment or outed a single read on me in 24 posts.

Grendel's recent one is the closest attempt.


I'll say that I disagree with Grendel in . I don't find it suspicious that you would believe what implosion says about PenguinPower (it would be fairly easy to fabricate that read as Mafia, with a strong incentive to do so if PenguinPower were also Mafia and a weak incentive to do so if PenguinPower were Town). I would eventually like to hear your thoughts on my response to the meta case (), but that's a low priority right now.
I'm not suspicious of your reasoning; I don't think that there's any special reason for you as Mafia to be focusing on implosion here, and it does seem as though you are trying to determine alignment by looking at whether implosion actually believes the reads that he gives.

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Post Post #1299  (isolation #17)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:23 pm

Last, I'm discussing boring.

MariaR seems to be working with PoE (). I've nothing useful to say about that.

I see that nn30 has multiple references to things that feel "off" (, , ) but not much elaboration on those.

The idea that eagerSnake parking a vote on boring should have attracted more votes from Mafia players if boring were Town () does not seem compelling to me. For one thing, there were votes for boring: a vote from Prism in (due to an error in the VC the two votes for boring are listed separately), one from MariaR in , and one from implosion in .

I don't find it suspicious that she turned on eagerSnake after Shadow_step claimed. I think that her ISO clearly shows that she was reading eagerSnake as Town for no reason other than the claim (whether this was warranted is a separate discussion, but not one that I feel gives insight into her alignment given her reaction in ). I'm not seeing any evidence that boring is "happy" with the conflict between Shadow_step and eagerSnake (), other than the fact that she was ready to vote for eagerSnake.

The idea that the read on Shadow_step given by boring in is the one that I most agree with--that last line in particular does seem awkward. I do think that Shadow_step seemed aggressive before that, though (and I find it suspicious that Gamma Emerald in seems convinced by this, since Gamma Emerald in thought that Shadow_step was in a tunnel).

This isn't a Town read, but it's not a Mafia read and I think that eagerSnake is a better vote than boring.

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Post Post #1304  (isolation #18)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:32 pm

@Gamma Emerald
What is the partial clear?

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Post Post #1306  (isolation #19)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:35 pm

I don't know why PenguinPower as Mafia would be so supremely excited to vote for me just because you had.

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Post Post #1307  (isolation #20)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:37 pm

This was the VC at the time.

In post 1265, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.29
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

eagerSnake (3): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower
boring (3): MariaR, implosion, nn30
implosion (2): eagerSnake, Prism
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert
Dierfire (1): Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

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Post Post #1309  (isolation #21)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:40 pm

I could think of lots of reasons for PenguinPower not to see a need to move his vote there.

What if he were Mafia with eagerSnake, afraid to look like he's trying to counter the wagon?
What if he were Mafia with boring, trying to keep the eagerSnake wagon viable to avoid lynching boring?
What if every single wagon were on Town, and he just didn't see a need to move a vote at all?
(What if he were Mafia with you and the whole thing is an act?)

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Post Post #1311  (isolation #22)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:42 pm

If it helps, I'm more suspicious of you than of PenguinPower, so there's a real chance that he's Town; I just don't see why his refusal to vote for me is inconsistent with Mafia alignment.

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Post Post #1313  (isolation #23)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:46 pm

Ha ha, that's an excellent question!
I guess that I just didn't want you to think that I was disagreeing with everything that you said on principle.

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Post Post #1315  (isolation #24)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:51 pm

I'd apologize to you after the game for being wrong, of course.
I'd also do what I usually do after a player flips: read the game over for new insights (the length of this game will make that difficult, but I'd at least give it a try).

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Post Post #1317  (isolation #25)  » Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:53 pm

That would be a similar situation, except that the "new insights" category would probably be larger because I could assess the players on and off the wagon for their reasoning (whereas the NK is often a source of WIFOM).

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Post Post #1322  (isolation #26)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:11 am

@Gamma Emerald
In post 351, Dierfire wrote:I definitely don't like the interaction between Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower finishing in . PenguinPower makes a great show of pointing out a seeming contradiction in the way that Gamma Emerald is treating Lil Uzi Vert and implosion, but then votes for Lil Uzi Vert (later clarifying in that this was a result of Lil Uzi Vert not answering RQS and not contributing, which to me both seem like weaker reasons than what PenguinPower gave against Gamma Emerald). Of course, this makes the eventual move to Gamma Emerald in seem forced or rushed (particularly given the hesitance in and ).

--SNIP--

@Gamma Emerald
In you thought that Zoronos was suspicious for being defensive. What do you think of PenguinPower in ?


I thought that the pattern from PenguinPower early in the game (cast suspicion on you but vote for Lil Uzi Vert in ) looked like a possible partner interaction (create distance without a vote). I thought that the switch in was not consistent with the progression of the game at the time (I thought that he had better reasons to vote for you sooner, meaning that he had some ulterior motive to vote you then, such as creating distance).
I also thought that PenguinPower was similarly "defensive" in compared to Zoronos in , so I was suspicious that you voted Zoronos without comment about PenguinPower.

In post 517, Dierfire wrote:I'm not seeing that comment as especially unlikely to come from a Mafia partner. It casts aspersions on the wagon without actually defending PenguinPower directly.


This was a reference to . I thought that you were trying to oppose the wagon on PenguinPower without saying so directly.

I can't find the quote right now, but I thought that your flip on PenguinPower was suspicious too--it was a drastic change from your earlier confidence and for reasons that had existed at the time of your earlier confidence.

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Post Post #1324  (isolation #27)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:14 am

@Shadow_step
In post 1320, Shadow_step wrote:No point asking Eager for a full claim, he will probably claim a strong pro town role to draw a CC, so that his buddies can kill that player. No thanks.


I'd like to see the claim before I evaluate it.

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Post Post #1327  (isolation #28)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:15 am

@Gamma Emerald
In post 1323, Gamma Emerald wrote:I can see how you might say that, however, it is my personal policy to suspect whomever performed the suspicious action more than the person the action was performed at.


I have listed suspicious actions from both of you with regard to the other.

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Post Post #1330  (isolation #29)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:19 am

I promise that I will continue to evaluate and update throughout the game. I like to think that I am not inordinately susceptible to confirmation bias, and I always read and try to understand the perspectives even of players that I find suspicious.

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Post Post #1332  (isolation #30)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:27 am

No, I've no other players that I'm reading as Mafia at this time.
I'm reading as Town: Prism, Shadow_step, nn30, Zoronos, implosion, and Grendel (strongest reads are Shadow_step and Zoronos)
I'm reading as Null: Lil Uzi Vert, MariaR, and boring (first two I haven't made much effort to read, boring I've read but not found anything especially indicative of alignment)

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Post Post #1333  (isolation #31)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:30 am

With that, I'm going to sleep. I'll be back tomorrow.

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Post Post #1351  (isolation #32)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:50 am

@Zoronos
In post 1334, Zoronos wrote:So, for the sake of clarity Dierfire, your scum reads are Eager, Gamma, and Penguin? You are further of the opinion that Gamma and Penguin's set of disagreements around the competing trains was theater / scum distancing and that they could be scum together?
Am I understanding this correctly?


Yes, that's correct.
I'm not married to the idea that all three are Mafia together, but I have independent reasons to read each as Mafia, associative reasons to read PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald as partners, and no associative reasons to doubt either as partners for eagerSnake (in fact, perhaps some associative reasons to read Gamma Emerald as a likely partner for eagerSnake given the hops on and off the eagerSnake wagon).

For Gamma Emerald and PenguinPower, I think that their direct reads on each other looked like interactions between Mafia partners. I don't recall many disagreements between them about other players (implosion early in the game, in real time when Gamma Emerald voted for me, and indirectly after Gamma Emerald was considering moving back to eagerSnake); none looked especially difficult to coordinate or unlikely to occur to Mafia partners.

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Post Post #1380  (isolation #33)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:18 pm

@Zoronos
In post 1352, Zoronos wrote:
In post 1351, Dierfire wrote:@Zoronos
In post 1334, Zoronos wrote:So, for the sake of clarity Dierfire, your scum reads are Eager, Gamma, and Penguin? You are further of the opinion that Gamma and Penguin's set of disagreements around the competing trains was theater / scum distancing and that they could be scum together?
Am I understanding this correctly?


Yes, that's correct.
I'm not married to the idea that all three are Mafia together, but I have independent reasons to read each as Mafia, associative reasons to read PenguinPower and Gamma Emerald as partners, and no associative reasons to doubt either as partners for eagerSnake (in fact, perhaps some associative reasons to read Gamma Emerald as a likely partner for eagerSnake given the hops on and off the eagerSnake wagon).


So, in short, your theory is that Gamma is Eager's scum partner, and who jumped on the lynch train when he thought it was going to complete for the town cred, then jumped off again when he thought he might be able to save his scum buddy?


Yes, and I'll add that Gamma Emerald jumped on twice and off twice (comes back from V/LA, sees the claim from Shadow_step, votes in ; removes vote from eagerSnake in and to Shadow_step in after Lil Uzi Vert adds another vote to that wagon; brings eagerSnake to L-1 in ; comes off again in ).

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Post Post #1392  (isolation #34)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:39 pm

@MariaR
In post 1356, MariaR wrote:When eager flips town I am power tunneling Dierfire into the ground

Why not start now?

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Post Post #1395  (isolation #35)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:48 pm

@Lil Uzi Vert
In post 1390, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I'm saying that Shadow made it look like he intended to counterclaim Snake and that when he did counterclaim, it conveniently was at time where there were some serious discussion and debate going on about the wagons on Gamma and Penguin.

I think that it's clear that Shadow_step was setting up to counter the claim from early in the game. I'm not certain why you find that suspicious. Why would Shadow_step, as Mafia, feel the need to start setting up to dispute the claim so early? Usually it is not difficult to dispose of an Ascetic role (by NK or by lynch).
I also don't think that Shadow_step needed to claim in order to create a distraction. The move that you describe would be one with low reward and high risk.

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Post Post #1397  (isolation #36)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:54 pm

I'm not certain what you're asking.

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Post Post #1399  (isolation #37)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:58 pm

If PenguinPower were Town, and you were Town, and Shadow_step were Mafia, then Shadow_step would have very little need to distract from the competing wagons.
Or are you saying that you're reading Shadow_step as Town because you're reading PenguinPower as Town?

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Post Post #1405  (isolation #38)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:22 pm

@PenguinPower
In post 1400, PenguinPower wrote:Sorry...Dier is talking a lot about my wagon in relation to the claim. Could you clarify as to where my wagon was at when the claim came?


Shadow_step claimed in . This was the VC at the time (I see no changes between the VC and the claim):

In post 626, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.15
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

Gamma Emerald (3): implosion, PenguinPower, nn30
PenguinPower (3): boring, Dierfire, Grendel
boring (1): eagerSnake
DierFire (1): Gamma Emerald
eagerSnake (1): Shadow_step
implosion (1): Prism

Not Voting (3): Zoronos, Lil Uzi Vert, MariaR


V/LA: Gamma Emerald

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


I'm saying to Gamma Emerald that, if you and he were both Town, and Shadow_step were Mafia, there would be many easier things to do than counter the claim by eagerSnake (vote for one of the large Town wagons, vote for one of the small Town wagons, something).

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Post Post #1411  (isolation #39)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:33 pm

@Lil Uzi Vert
I think that you are mistaken to suggest that Shadow_step was "tunneling" you early in the game. I assume that you're referring to things like and , and the fact that he left his RVS vote on you. I wouldn't read too much into those things; his lines of questioning suggest that his focus was much more strongly on eagerSnake after the claim (, , , , ).

I also think that it is incorrect to suggest that Shadow_step came up with "little to no information" by waiting, or that he had insufficient information to proceed. You may have missed this post:

In post 739, Shadow_step wrote:I got townreads. I'm almost 100% sure that boring is town because of your interactions.

And that these shouldn't be bothered at night by PRs[zoronos, nn, grendel, boring]
Actually I'd even go as far as saying that DF is town. But that is a meta read so meh

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Post Post #1412  (isolation #40)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:35 pm

@Gamma Emerald
In post 1406, Gamma Emerald wrote:But as LUV said, he could have claimed to make it look like one of us was one of his partners.


Why set you up to be lynched later when he had a reasonable shot of lynching you today?

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Post Post #1414  (isolation #41)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:37 pm

@eagerSnake
If you're not Mafia, then I suggest that you get to work.

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Post Post #1417  (isolation #42)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:46 pm

@Gamma Emerald
I'm not understanding this line at all.
The claim from Shadow_step decreased the sizes of the wagons on you and PenguinPower.
Your theory is that Shadow_step made this claim in order to look as though he were distracting from your wagons and thereby get you lynched (along with him).
I don't think that this makes sense, because Shadow_step had no need to sacrifice himself; he could have simply voted for one of the wagons and tried to push it to completion (potentially with assistance from other Mafia players). This has every probability of giving one lynch without cost. He could then push the other on some later day, leaving alive the Town players who looked likely to cooperate so as to ensure wagon viability. These maneuvers would be more reliable than banking on us drawing weird associations and less risky than putting a claim out there.
It's extraordinarily far-fetched to think that the focus of the claim by Shadow_step was any player other than eagerSnake.

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Post Post #1419  (isolation #43)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:49 pm

@Lil Uzi Vert
In post 1416, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:You're not taking into the account that he had a gut read on me he could not explain, called me out for naked voting, and actually was serious about it even when people tried to point it out to him that it was RVS and it means nothing. He seemed very serious about wanting to lynch me.

I'm not talking about that reads list, I'm talking about the one that followed after he counterclaimed.


I am taking his statements into account. I am suggesting to you that a "gut read" without explanation and calling you out for a naked vote does not constitute a serious attempt to lynch, particularly at that stage in the game.

Are you referring to the list quoted below? To me it seems consistent with what I quoted before.

In post 646, Shadow_step wrote:These are my reads

Town
(nn30, Zoronos)
(Grendel, boring)
(DF, implosion)
(Maria, LUV)
(PP, GE)
(Eager)
Scum

Haven't read prisms latest posts so I'll sort him later.

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Post Post #1421  (isolation #44)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 9:53 pm

@Gamma Emerald
Yes, boring was of the opinion that the game was unlikely to contain two Town Ascetic roles (quote below). What is your interpretation of that?
In post 1165, boring wrote:I think we've had quite enough role claims for Day 1, but suffice it to say that I find it very, very unlikely that we have two ascetics.

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Post Post #1423  (isolation #45)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:02 pm

@Lil Uzi Vert
Shadow_step said that only the read on boring was predicated on the assumption that eagerSnake was Mafia (quote below).

In post 960, Shadow_step wrote:
In post 958, eagerSnake wrote:You've literally spent the entirety of this game looking for "my buddies" which don't exist, forming your reads based on my interactions with other players while looking at me through rose tinted glasses. I.e. forming reads based solely on the false assumption that I'm scum


You've barely made any noticeable interactions. Only my boring town read is based on you being scum.


If you want him to explain other reads, you should probably ask him to explain other reads!

@Shadow_step
Would you like to help Lil Uzi Vert out by explaining some of your other reads? Personally I am most interested in your read on Grendel, whom I was reading as Town early but haven't revisited in a bit.

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Post Post #1424  (isolation #46)  » Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:04 pm

@Gamma Emerald
In post 1422, Gamma Emerald wrote:I interpret that as a planned bus.


Well, boring voted for eagerSnake, so am I now to understand that you think eagerSnake is Mafia again?
I'll also want details about why you think that this particular interaction makes them both Mafia.
---
I'm trying not to clutter the thread, so that's it for me tonight.

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Post Post #1516  (isolation #47)  » Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:34 am

I'm ready for a hammer.

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Post Post #1544  (isolation #48)  » Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:48 pm

I'm thinking that nn30 is likely to be Town for the vote in (path of least resistance there is to vote for eagerSnake if both were Town, and I still think that Shadow_step as Mafia has many better options than countering the claim from eagerSnake).
The next significant fork in the road is whether boring was Town or Mafia.

@Shadow_step
I thought that you had boring as Town primarily for interactions with eagerSnake. What is your reasoning for reading her as Town now?

@boring
Of which players are you suspicious now?

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Post Post #1547  (isolation #49)  » Sun Oct 16, 2016 1:56 pm

@Shadow_step
In post 1545, Shadow_step wrote:What are your thoughts on implosuon?
Do you know why I'm voting him?


I thought that reasons given for reading implosion as Mafia were unpersuasive (). I don't recall addressing your suspicions at that time, so I don't remember what they were.

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Post Post #1659  (isolation #50)  » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:08 pm

@implosion
In post 1651, implosion wrote:@dierfire: last think I see you say about boring is that you've read up on her but don't find anything really alignment indicative. What do you think of her after the eager+maria townflips, and/or why don't you agree with my points on her?


Obviously the death of MariaR is a minor point against boring (MariaR was voting for boring), but no more than a minor one.
I still don't see any evidence that she processed the conflict between eagerSnake and Shadow_step in a suspicious manner.

For your points:

You made the point () that you don't see why boring would read eagerSnake as Town for the initial claim. I think that, from a probabilistic perspective, it makes more sense from a Town player claiming legitimately than from a Mafia player making a gamble (this is where I was after the initial claim). Whether that was a reason sufficient to justify the apparent strength of the read given by boring is a matter best answered by boring (I, for example, had eagerSnake as one of my weaker reads); I looked to for an answer and it seemed that boring thought the claim sufficient that eagerSnake would either die or be held in suspicion for living. Therefore none of the reaction from boring to the second claim seemed out of place to me. In fact, of all the players that wanted to lynch eagerSnake after the second claim from Shadow_step, boring had the most prior evidence that her read on eagerSnake was primarily based on the first claim.

You also made the point that boring seemed artificially rather than genuinely unconcerned about the wagon forming on her. To assess this, I would look at her attempts to read those voting for her (if she is genuine that the wagon on her is in part a positive thing because it informs the alignments of players on the wagon, she should show evidence of trying to use that information). She had appropriate questions out to nn30 (, , especially ) and Gamma Emerald (). She appears to have made some attempt to read you as well (, ) and to have revisited Gamma Emerald in . I was hoping to have a deeper analysis from her with the results of those inquiries; I will prompt her directly.

You made the third point () that boring had a "tepid" response () to the suggestion from eagerSnake that we pass on the lynch. It seems clear to me that boring was demonstrating that better play from eagerSnake as Town would have been to push for lynching boring rather than no lynch at all (I don't read "are you suggesting that we give a free kill to the Mafia?" as a serious question but rather as a rhetorical one). I've no problem with the tenor of her response; I acknowledge your argument that it sounds "detached" but find this unpersuasive as a reason to vote for boring.

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Post Post #1660  (isolation #51)  » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:08 pm

@boring
You seemed to suggest that you would be able to make useful information from the wagon on you (). You've made defenses against the arguments offered by nn30 and implosion (); would it be accurate to say that you found implosion the more suspicious of the two (for reasons given in )? Would it be accurate to say that you found implosion the most suspicious of all those players who voted for you?
Also, I'm not seeing that Lil Uzi Vert voted for you. I assume therefore that you find Lil Uzi Vert more suspicious than the most suspicious player who voted for you (presumptively implosion, otherwise specify the player)?

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Post Post #1662  (isolation #52)  » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:16 pm

I'd rather vote for Gamma Emerald than for PenguinPower or Lil Uzi Vert.
I'm still assessing whether I'd prefer to vote for Gamma Emerald than for boring.

I guess that for the purpose of clarity I'll put my vote on Gamma Emerald for now.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

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Post Post #1756  (isolation #53)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:33 am

@Gamma Emerald
In post 1669, Gamma Emerald wrote:Also, I think me putting up a promise of a case of why me and Eager can't be buddies pretty much clears me now that he flipped town.

That's an interesting thing to say. How so?

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Post Post #1757  (isolation #54)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:34 am

@Grendel
In post 1729, Grendel wrote:I'd like to know more about why boring is 2nd scum for you when you found most the other players cases on her uncompelling.

Is the crux of your case that she finds LUV scummier then Implosion, when through PoE she should be on Implosion?

How do you feel about Implosion?


It would not be accurate to say that boring is a Mafia read for me. I am having difficulty finding clues as to her alignment, and I feel that many proposed reasons to be suspicious of her do not hold water (this is not the same as reading her as Town). The reason that I am placing such a priority on determining her alignment is that, as one of the leading D1 wagons, her alignment carries significant information about the state of the game at that time.

I've exhausted my time for now, but I'll be back tomorrow and will discuss implosion at that time.

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Post Post #1762  (isolation #55)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:54 am

@Gamma Emerald
In post 1759, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why would I put up a defense on allegations of me and Eager being on a scum team if I was scum and knew he was town? I'd let the matter slide.


Ha ha, but you didn't put up a defense! You just promised that one would be forthcoming after the flip (and the flip obviated the need for the defense).

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Post Post #1808  (isolation #56)  » Thu Oct 20, 2016 8:49 pm

@Gamma Emerald
In post 1764, Gamma Emerald wrote:I said "I have evidence that me and Eager are not scumbuddies" and he flipped town. Why the fuck would I say that as scum? I'd just be like "okay I know I'm safe from this point so just forget about it". It indicates I did not know his alignment before the flip, clearing me.


I will argue that the underlined is precisely what you have done!

---
I read the case presented by Grendel in . I haven't read the off-site game in question (yet, probably I will not do so at all as Gamma Emerald seems not to dispute the facts but rather to argue that he didn't have sufficient experience with Grendel to read him as well as Grendel seems to think he should have). The depth of the case reassures me about Grendel and encourages me in my vote on Gamma Emerald.

---
I don't like that Lil Uzi Vert hasn't cast a vote yet today. My next task is reading Lil Uzi Vert; this will happen within roughly 24 hours.

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Post Post #1909  (isolation #57)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 5:49 pm

UNVOTE: Gamma Emerald

I'm catching up right now.

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Post Post #1912  (isolation #58)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 6:56 pm

In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


This VC is where I'm starting.
So, eagerSnake is Town and 4/5 players on the boring wagon are Town. Although it's clear to me that my reads have not been superb in this game, I still think that Shadow_step is close to mechanistically clear by virtue of his claim.

If boring is Town, it's unlikely that the Mafia players would find a reason to avoid her wagon (makes nn30 more suspicious) and it makes PenguinPower the most suspicious player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert remains the most suspicious of the players on neither wagon.
If boring is Mafia, it makes nn30 less suspicious and probably increases the chances that we're looking at something like: boring, either PenguinPower or Grendel, and one of the players on neither wagon.

PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert are fairly suspicious regardless of whether boring is Town or Mafia. PenguinPower is more suspicious than Grendel, which makes him a better guess for a second Mafia player working with boring to oppose her wagon and a better guess for a single Mafia player on the eagerSnake wagon. Lil Uzi Vert is more suspicious than Zoronos and Prism, which makes him a good guess for Mafia unless all Mafia players are on the important wagons.

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Post Post #1914  (isolation #59)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:01 pm

@Zoronos
In post 1592, Zoronos wrote:PenguinPower - He put his vote on Eager quite promptly after the claim, then did nothing to try and figure out which side was telling the truth. He responded to some questions about himself (his secondary read being Gamma) and otherwise reiterated over and over to lynch Snake. Of particular note - I don't feel Penguin can be scum with either Grendel or Boring.


Do you still feel that PenguinPower is unlikely to be Mafia with Grendel or boring?

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Post Post #1916  (isolation #60)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:14 pm

The reason that I ask is that the final VC suggests to me that there aren't many cases in which PenguinPower is Mafia without one of those players.

In post 1539, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.36
LynchingFINAL

eagerSnake (7): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)

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Post Post #1922  (isolation #61)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:14 am

A Traitor is not immune to a Cop. I'm also not convinced that the game would need a Mafia role that undercuts the investigative result of a 1-Shot Cop.

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Post Post #1924  (isolation #62)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 9:06 am

Oh, ha ha, my mistake!

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Post Post #2070  (isolation #63)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:41 am

I've read through both PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert again. I don't find the depth of analysis that I find in other players (Prism, Zoronos, Grendel). In general I'd characterize this as not making effort to solve the game, which is suspicious.
I suppose that, if I trusted my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel, I'd start lynching by POE and drop a hammer on Lil Uzi Vert, but I'm reluctant to do so for two reasons.
First, the wagon on Shadow_step after the claim yesterday does not strike me as the sort of place to find a high density of Mafia players (it would have been far easier to vote for eagerSnake). This means that Lil Uzi Vert (and nn30) should be less suspicious than the other players I'm having difficulty reading (boring, PenguinPower). As a parallel to that, if nn30 is less suspicious, it becomes difficult to see why no suspicious players are voting for boring in the quoted VC.
Second, I don't really trust my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel. I have reasons to read each as Town but I'm simply finding it too good to be true that I've narrowed the Mafia players down so much.

In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring

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Post Post #2194  (isolation #64)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:29 pm

I believe the claim from Zoronos with a fair degree of certainty (it makes him at least as likely to be Town as Shadow_step).
I disbelieve the claim from Lil Uzi Vert for a few reasons. First, as Zoronos becomes more likely to be Town, my confidence in POE from earlier increases, which makes Lil Uzi Vert more likely to be Mafia at baseline. Second, the vote for Zoronos makes more sense from a Mafia player who claimed Doctor than from an actual Town Doctor (the latter has little reason to suspect that a Mafia player wants him lynched immediately rather than killed by Night, particularly at the cost of countering the claim).
I could think of two potential reasons to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. First, if if Lil Uzi Vert is actually a Town Doctor, it would potentially allow Gamma Emerald another action. However, I'm inclined to think that the combination of Doctor and Cop, besides being rare, would likely have a Mafia role to counter this interaction. Therefore I think that this is not a good reason to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. It does open one other long shot; if we lynch a player who flips with a role like Mafia Strongman or Mafia Roleblocker, the Doctor claim would be much more believable.

CUT: I hadn't factored in the Ascetic roles, which I suppose would be a weak version of a Strongman kill (allows the Mafia to kill certain players regardless of protection, but isn't much help if they want to lynch those players and/or kill other players).

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Post Post #2195  (isolation #65)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:29 pm

@Zoronos
In post 2075, Zoronos wrote:I was making parts of a case D1, though it never got far enough along to be something I was really happy with. What do you think of what I was writing back them?


As I recall, you made the point that boring had a weird read on Shadow_step in ; I found this the most compelling reason of all those given for suspicion of boring when I did my review in . Somehow I seem to have missed your . In that post, you also make the point that boring wasn't focusing much on PenguinPower after she cast a vote in , which I find true. You extended this into a more general impression that boring was not strongly advocating for her favored wagons, which I also find true. I've already discussed why I didn't find her flip onto eagerSnake suspicious after Shadow_step countered the claim.

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Post Post #2197  (isolation #66)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:06 pm

@Grendel
Oh hi Mark!
(Hilarious film)

@Lil Uzi Vert
Your vote for Zoronos is fairly bad. I could perhaps be persuaded that it's wise to defer a decision on your lynch today, but I'd need a good lynch option and Zoronos is not that.

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Post Post #2277  (isolation #67)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:38 pm

I'm getting close to committing to POE here.
I have more reasons, but I think that their claims are sufficient to have Shadow_step and Zoronos as Town.
I think that Prism is unlikely to be Mafia given the protracted conflict with Lil Uzi Vert. More powerful than his reasons for voting Lil Uzi Vert is the reaction that Lil Uzi Vert has to those reasons and the way that Prism follows up in conversation. In the quotes below, Prism is pursuing Lil Uzi Vert while Lil Uzi Vert appears to be evading Prism rather than engaging with him, which is an unusual pattern for Mafia partners.

Spoiler: Quotes
In post 1686, Prism wrote:
In post 1678, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I don't see how I haven't made it clear why I started scum reading Snake towards the end of Day 1. Why are you implying that I was scum reading Snake for the majority of the day?
I never implied that you did it earlier. Your statement implies that you held both reads simultaneously at the end of Day 1. It still makes no sense to have ever had both.
In post 1677, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:As for Prism, I reread his ISO and something about his reads feel fake to me. I'm not sure if that's correct way to put it but basically the stances he is taking on everyone seem very safe. It feels like he can easily fall back on them or conveniently change them at a moments notice with little to no scrutiny.
Can you give examples of my reads that feel fake to you?
Can you give some examples of safe stances I've taken on people?

If anything I've been contrarian for a large part of the game-it took me a lot longer to come around to thinking nn30 was town than it did anyone else and I was the only one pushing Implosion yesterday...and even now that others are today I've changed my focus for reasons described in #1664. I also switched off of boring shortly before others started scumreading her, and never hopped back on, again for reasons described in #1664. If you're defining convenience as going with others, I've changed my reads at some really inconvenient times.

In post 1687, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Why does it make no sense?

Tone and gut for me, at least what I got from what when I reread your ISO last night.

In post 1689, Prism wrote:
Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Why does it make no sense?
The premise was that they were direct counterclaims, for one?

Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Tone and gut for me, at least what I got from what when I reread your ISO last night.
Okay, but can you give examples of the reads you feel are safe or convenient?

Looking at your ISO I'm more skeptical of your interpretation of my reads, and even more skeptical of your reads.
In post 488, Prism wrote:In the meantime I'm going to VOTE: boring whose #196 left me wondering if she was trying to find inconsistencies or trying to find scum.
My original read on boring. A few posts later we get LUV reading boring...
In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I don't know how to put my feelings about her [boring] into the words but I can't shake this vibe from her. I think it's mainly her vote on Zoro, which read more to me as nitpicking about inconsistencies rather than looking for scum.
And in the same post...
In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Prism - Just subbed in. Nothing to go off of.
On the surface, it seems like you're the one being convenient between following me on boring and flopping on snake when he hit L-1.

On a deeper level, it seems really strange as town to directly plagiarize my reasoning on boring then subsequently claim, in the same post, that I had given "nothing to go off of."

More votes on LUV.

In post 1690, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Nitpicking about inconsistencies =/= trying to find inconsistencies.

Also another thing I noticed, you seemed concerned about how you look. A few posts in your ISO if I recall you were frustrated at people for their reasoning for town reading you. It's as if you worried someone will go back and wonder why you're so widely town read by the majority.

In post 1693, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 1691, Prism wrote:
In post 1690, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Nitpicking about inconsistencies =/= trying to find inconsistencies.
If you haven't voted LUV and need a reason, read my #1689 and this response.
In post 1690, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Also another thing I noticed, you seemed concerned about how you look. A few posts in your ISO if I recall you were frustrated at people for their reasoning for town reading you. It's as if you worried someone will go back and wonder why you're so widely town read by the majority.
Is this a scumtell?


I'm quoting both of our statements and showing that they're not the same thing. One is saying she was nitpicking about inconsistencies, the other is saying she is trying to find inconsistencies.


A brief overview of the VC also supports Prism for sticking to Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2 (while I see that boring also does this, I don't trust this alone as proof that boring is Town, because she was nearly lynched D1 and might therefore have seen a need to create some distance).

Therefore, I'm strongly reading implosion, Zoronos, Shadow_step, and Prism as Town.

I next compare the wagon on boring in with that on PenguinPower in . PenguinPower receives votes from all other players outside my Town pool; boring receives a vote only from nn30. I would vote for boring before I would vote for PenguinPower.

I'm ambivalent about nn30; certainly the D1 VC were suspicious if boring is Town, but nn30 spends a lot of time on the wagons of players in my POE lynching pool and I don't find the Shadow_step wagon after his claim a likely place for two Mafia players to stack. At any rate I will say that nn30 should not be Mafia with boring (because nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert should not have been stacking on Shadow_step in if eagerSnake is the main alternative to boring). I also may want to rule out a team of nn30 and PenguinPower based on the VC in (if nn30 were to vote for a partner, the one about to be lynched makes more sense).

So, I'd like to vote for Grendel or boring today.

VOTE: Grendel

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Post Post #2281  (isolation #68)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:55 pm

The above reminded me of the quoted post below.

In post 358, nn30 wrote:Assuming MariaR's vote from 354 is counted without the tags, Penguin is at L-1 right now.


These are evidence to me that nn30 is playing alone in this game, not supported by comrades providing input/advice (Daytalk). This moves nn30 lower on my list of lynch candidates and strengthens my inclination to lynch Grendel or boring.

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Post Post #2283  (isolation #69)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:25 am

In post 2282, Zoronos wrote:As I noted previously, I believe (though am not positive) that all the 'cop gives wrong results' roles are banned on this site in Normal games.


I wasn't aware that this was still in question, but I can answer this definitively.

The role that Gamma Emerald had, Town Cop, follows the guidelines below.

Wiki wrote: Sane Cop is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, while all other sanities are banned from Normal games. A Cop (or Seer) in a Normal game must return the same results for all non-town roles (excluding Godfather or Investigation-Immune Serial Killer) and for a Miller. Trying to investigate an Ascetic role should return "No Result", the same as if the Cop had been blocked.


Note that, despite the reference to the Godfather role in the description, that role is explicitly prohibited in a Normal game (black list).

Wiki wrote:Godfather was considered Normal on mafiascum.net until an update in April 2016, when it was added to the "explicitly non-Normal" list.


Combined with the result given by Gamma Emerald (quoted below), there should be no Normal mechanism for implosion to be aligned with Mafia.

In post 1903, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm a Town Cop with a Night 1 Town result on Implosion.


I'm uncertain as to whether a Normal mechanism exists for implosion to give that result as a Serial Killer, but I see no reason to suspect that this is the case.

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Post Post #2292  (isolation #70)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:31 am

@boring
In post 2290, boring wrote:@Dierfire - Can you explain why you are certain about Shadow being town? I still have some doubt, based on the facts that he's unconfirmed and eager really was town ascetic.


A few of the posts that Lil Uzi Vert directed at Shadow_step seemed like unlikely partner interactions to me.

In post 273, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 270, Shadow_step wrote:Good this should be an easy game. I have a couple of town reads too.
Need to hear more from Slandaar/Maria/Diet to sort them out.


You keep implying this game will be easy. I seriously hope you have a backup plan for when I flip town.


This reads to me like ATE, which is a technique used against a Town player rather than a partner.

In post 525, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 524, Shadow_step wrote:Calling me a VI? Okay that is just bullshit.
Esp since you have no idea with am I talking about.


Never called you a VI, I thought you was one though. Why so angry?

And you're right, I don't know what you're talking about, but no one else does either. Mind sharing what knowledge you may or may not have to determine how you're finding this game easier then the rest of us?


This seems a little too confrontational to be staged. Also the "do you mind sharing" bit seems like Lil Uzi Vert is legitimately probing for information rather than teeing up a partner.

In post 766, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Yeah I honestly don't know what the hell happened the last 5 pages, just seems like poorly calculated move by Shadow regardless if he's telling the truth or not.


This makes it seem as though Lil Uzi Vert was not in on the plan if Shadow_step is Mafia with an elaborate claim strategy.

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Post Post #2298  (isolation #71)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:00 pm

@nn30
That's a lot to process! One quick correction: Lil Uzi Vert did respond to the "let's chat for a bit" section (, response at the bottom of ).

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Post Post #2301  (isolation #72)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 1:10 pm

@nn30

Regarding your read on Grendel: what do you mean by "bread crumbs" there? Most of the interactions that you have flagged as such seem to be those in which Grendel expresses mild to moderate suspicion of Lil Uzi Vert but does not vote for him. To me, it does not seem unlikely that a Mafia player would decline to defend a partner who was under suspicion but also not vote for that partner; however, you seem to be reading these interactions as evidence that Grendel is Town. Is that correct?

My second question (if you are still working then this is for when you finish) is whether you are moving your vote.

For the record, I am reading Zoronos strongly as Town and willing to lock into that barring role-related shenanigans.

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Post Post #2345  (isolation #73)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@boring
In post 2305, boring wrote:@Dierfire - I don't think there's any reason to doubt that both Implosion and Zoronos are town. Implosion is confirmed by a dead cop, and Zoronos is as good as confirmed CC'ing LUV.

Ha ha, yes, thank you, that was my point.

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Post Post #2346  (isolation #74)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@nn30
In post 2310, nn30 wrote:
In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.


@Dier - is the fact that Boring was so strongly interested in lynching LUV enough of a reason to town read her and get you to rethink this statement?


No, as I and others have said, I think that most of boring's interest in lynching Lil Uzi Vert comes after she herself picks up significant attention, at which point expressed interest in voting for a Mafia player becomes significantly weaker as evidence of Town alignment.

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Post Post #2347  (isolation #75)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@Grendel
In post 2324, Grendel wrote:Why do you think scum would be scared of stacking on Shadow when Shadow was never the one getting lynched D1?

You may have a point on NN30 not taking advantage of LUV. But I'm usually inclined to think that bussing scum is the leader of the pack. No offence to nn30's skill, but their are other players that would be better canidantes for scum leader then him.


I don't think that they'd be scared, really--I just don't see why they'd do it.
I'm not sure what this is about nn30 taking advantage of Lil Uzi Vert or being a leader to the team--I don't think that either of those are points that I made. Could you clarify?

In post 2326, Grendel wrote:@DeirFire

This situation where I'm arguing against the of existence of a role blocker is some serous irony right?

I guess its karma.


Ha ha, that's true! For what it's worth, I do find that the claimed action by Zoronos makes you more likely to be Town than otherwise; I just think that the quality of that evidence is weaker than what I'm using for my POE given the potential presence of a Roleblocker and the possibility that another player would have made the kill.

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Post Post #2348  (isolation #76)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:58 am

@Shadow_step
In post 2344, Shadow_step wrote:I will ISO Prism and LUV together, I haven't looked at it and I don't get the Prism town reads atm.


I'd like to call your attention to the interactions quoted in my as a good place to start.

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Post Post #2352  (isolation #77)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:23 am

The presence of multiple Town Ascetic roles might suggest some Mafia investigative role (against which they have some positive utility for Town).

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Post Post #2357  (isolation #78)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:18 am

@Shadow_step
I'm uncertain what assumptions I'm supposed to be using.

If your question is, out of all of those players, which one was most likely to have made the kill, my answer will be boring. Players more likely to be Mafia (boring and Grendel) are more likely to make kills, and Grendel having been jailed weighs slightly against him because it requires the Mafia to have a power that counters that action and to have that power in the correct place (doesn't work if Grendel's partner is Ascetic, for example, or if Grendel is a Rolestopper unless self-targeting is allowed, or if Grendel is a Roleblocker who also made the kill unless the Roleblocker takes priority over the Jailkeeper).

If your question is, which of those would be most likely to make the kill assuming Mafia alignment, then I'm looking for a player least likely to be blocked by Zoronos (if the Mafia has the power to block Zoronos then I can't draw a meaningful conclusion about which player would have made the kill). In that case, boring isn't a bad guess (Zoronos was apologizing to boring at the end of D2 and so might have been thought unlikely to block boring), but Zoronos didn't seem openly suspicious of Prism or nn30 either.

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Post Post #2360  (isolation #79)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:40 am

In post 2358, Shadow_step wrote:Grendel could also be strongman.

This is true. However, Grendel's partner could also have the Strongman role. Grendel having been jailed eliminates all scenarios in which Grendel is Mafia and could not have circumvented the block, however unlikely, while leaving possible the equivalent scenarios in which the partner is Mafia and could not have circumvented the block.

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Post Post #2361  (isolation #80)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:43 am

Equivalently:

Assume that we were guaranteed that one Mafia player has the Strongman role. Zoronos claims to have jailed Grendel. This means that Grendel is either Town or the Strongman. Other players have three options: Town, Strongman, some Mafia role other than Strongman.

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Post Post #2382  (isolation #81)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:15 pm

@Grendel
In post 2372, Grendel wrote:lol idk how to properly quote from a locked thread.


If you hit the "PM" button at the lower left of a post, whether or not the thread is locked, it will generate a draft with post quoted (it will be a PM draft, but you can copy/paste that into a post in the correct thread, and I usually clean up the quote tag as well so that it looks good).

---
You make some interesting points about Shadow_step that I'll consider further. What do you think of the fact that boring was having doubt about Shadow_step (), and the posts from Lil Uzi Vert that I quoted in response ()?

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Post Post #2383  (isolation #82)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:18 pm

@Shadow_step
Are you done looking at Prism and Lil Uzi Vert? Did you look at my reasons for reading Prism as Town ()?

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Post Post #2389  (isolation #83)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:36 pm

@boring
In post 2384, boring wrote:Dierfire, why does basically everyone have you as null? It's mighty shady at this point in the game.

Ha ha, I agree; I find it a bit strange that so many players don't have a read on me. Or did you mean that you're suspicious of me because other players are reading me as Null? I'm not so skilled that I can control how other players read me.

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Post Post #2393  (isolation #84)  » Wed Nov 02, 2016 11:53 pm

@boring
In post 2390, boring wrote:I'm like the rest, and find you null. It's unnerving.

How can I help? Do you have questions that I can answer that would help you read me? Do any of my thoughts require clarification?

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Post Post #2426  (isolation #85)  » Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:27 pm

There's a lot of material that I want to read again. When I'm finished (probably tomorrow), I'll decide whether I want to give hammer intent on boring.

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Post Post #2559  (isolation #86)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:42 am

@Grendel
In post 2460, Grendel wrote:I meant to ask this earlier, but do you know if our mod had knowledge of 1809?

I feel like most people are viewing this as a left felid theory, and I want something to reel them into the possibility that Shadow is scum. I am interested in any further considerations you have for me.

You said that your vote on me was PoE, have you found anything beyond that since?

I don't know whether the Mod had any knowledge of that game. On further consideration, though, I'm not sure that any was needed. If your theory is that Shadow_step has a Mafia Ascetic role, the Roleblocker function is not necessary to explain the decision to kill Gamma Emerald, right? In fact, I'd think that a Mafia team with an Ascetic Roleblocker (and one capable of killing and blocking by night according to the opening post) could get away with either action, whereas a Mafia team with an Ascetic Goon would be more likely to go after the claimed Cop.

Anyway, I've reviewed the Shadow_step again, and while to a certain degree I agree with the ideas that he has been playing in an unhelpful manner, I think that his claim is more likely to come from a Town Ascetic role than a Mafia Ascetic role. At this point, the only thing that would make me want to lynch Shadow_step is if we have a set of claims that supports the existence of a Mafia Ascetic role over a Town Ascetic role.

Although it's true that I base my read on you primarily on POE, I do also stand by the things that I said to nn30 in (that your treatment of Lil Uzi Vert reads like creating distance), and the more recent points by Prism () also highlighted some ways in which your treatment of Lil Uzi Vert reads like a soft defense.

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Post Post #2560  (isolation #87)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:44 am

@PenguinPower
In post 2454, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2452, boring wrote:You'll have to forgive me if I don't take your word for it. Regardless, I can't be the only person he buddied.


You actually seem to be, on his ISO read. At least, the only one I was able to discern. Please feel free to find another.

I'm surprised that boring didn't answer this, but I can find one--me! I've included several quotes below.

Spoiler: Quotes
In post 443, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:I am pretty wary of Penguin, especially after how hypocritical he's been about Grendal's RQS. That alone though isn't a strong enough for me to jump on this wagon although I agree with a lot of what Diefire presented.

In post 522, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Diefire - I liked every single one of his observations he's made so far and agree with almost all of them except the likelihood of Gamma and PP being a team. I'm not saying it's not a possibility, I just don't try to look for teams early on in the game and I like to focus on one person at a time once I feel 90% sure they're scum.

In post 1600, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Why Dierfire? To me, he's trying really hard to sort out who he feels is suspicious and none of the cases he presented so far have read like scum trying to push a mislynch.

In post 2120, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:Anyway, I protected Dierfire Night 1. He was one of my strongest town reads and I thought scum would be threatened by the observations he made.

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Post Post #2561  (isolation #88)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:44 am

My list for mass claim:

Grendel
boring
PenguinPower
nn30
Prism

I'll go as late as I can, but I certainly don't mind going before Prism and nn30.

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Post Post #2619  (isolation #89)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:01 pm

I am also VT.

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Post Post #2674  (isolation #90)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:49 am

Right, so, the claim and the flipped/claimed roles make very PenguinPower virtually certain to be Town.
I won't be considering theories about a fake claim from Shadow_step today.

At this point, I'm willing to vote for either Grendel or boring. Grendel seems to have the most votes, so my vote stays.
It's also worth noting that, from the teams considered in , Grendel should have been voting for me rather than PenguinPower in . I take this as an indication that Grendel did not actually proceed from reads to votes but rather attempted to fabricate both.

---
@nn30
You said that you prefer to lynch Grendel today, but the most recent VC shows no vote from you.

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Post Post #2700  (isolation #91)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:43 pm

@nn30
I've three comments about your analysis of my voting patterns.
First, I will argue that voting for a leading wagon (adding the fourth vote to PenguinPower when he was already leading with three votes), voting for a tied wagon (adding a third vote to Gamma Emerald when he was tied with Lil Uzi Vert with two votes, adding a third vote to Grendel when he was tied with you with two votes), and voting to bring a wagon to a tie (adding a fourth vote to eagerSnake to tie boring) are three different patterns. The second one in particular is almost the opposite of voting for a consensus candidate.
Second, I will argue that I am always diligent about giving reasons for my votes so that they carry more information than just the position on the wagon. Do you have any comment about the reasons that I gave for my votes?
Third, I am wondering why the vote on boring seems incriminating to you.

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Post Post #2793  (isolation #92)  » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:44 pm

I'm aware that there are questions outstanding that I haven't answered, but I'm pressed for time so I will be giving only a short update tonight.

I'm not flipping Mafia, so while strictly speaking Zoronos should be announcing a target in the event that I flip Mafia, Shadow_step is correct that this will not be the case and in practice Zoronos will be working on the fly.

It was also a collective mistake to bring me to L-1, as if I were Mafia I would have been given the option to cut off discussion while Zoronos was away.

Of players on my wagon, I am most suspicious of Grendel and least suspicious of Shadow_step. It is in character for Shadow_step, as Town, to flip on me as he has recently, and I still think that the claim dynamics indicate Town alignment.

Therefore, my recommendations in the event of my death are to lynch Grendel and boring as first priority, with additional consideration to nn30 if the game is not won. Only in extreme cases would I consider Prism or Shadow_step candidates for the lynch.

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Post Post #2905  (isolation #93)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:07 pm

@nn30
In post 2851, nn30 wrote:@Dierfire - I want the in-depth version of the defense you should have given yesterday. Specifically my points on you contained in 2697, 2702, and 2710.


All right, you asked for it!

Spoiler: Setting the Stage
I think that relevant points here will be answered later, I'm just quoting the initial conversation to be thorough.
In post 2697, nn30 wrote:Hmm...

I ISO'd Dierfire to take a look at who he has voted for, and when. I found that, when only considering who he votes for (and ignoring his thoughts about the game), he's very conservative. I found exactly one instance of him putting a vote somewhere which was an unpopular opinion - and it's a pretty damning 'one and only' instance as well.

Aside from RVS, he was:

4th to join a wagon on PP (post 351). At the time of his vote, Penguin was the leading vote with 3 votes compared to the 2 of Zoronos and Gamma Emerald.
4th to join the Eager wagon (post 1297). At the time of this vote, Boring was the leading wagon with 4 votes and Dier's vote tied the wagons.
3rd to join the Gamma Emerald wagon (post 1662). At the time of this vote, LUV and Gamma each had 2 votes. Dier's vote puts Gamma 1 vote above LUV.
3rd to join the Grendel wagon (post 2277). At the time of this vote, I was tied for leading wagon at 2 votes. Dier's vote puts Grendel in the lead with 3.

In fact, the only time he stuck his neck out was when he voted for Boring in post 2070 (I'm defining 'sticking one's neck out' as doing something away from town consensus.) At this time LUV had 5 votes compared to the next highest wagon of Penguin Power with 2 votes. His vote put boring from 0 to 1 votes.

Here's the full post of this instance:

---Dier snips spoiler to avoid nested spoiler tags---
---The original spoiler was a full quote of my followed by the comment below---

Some of the town have pointed out that it's textbook scum play to say 'I scum read my partner for these reasons, but here's why I'm voting elsewhere.'
---End Snip---

For the moment, I'm actually more interested than a Dier lynch than a Grendel lynch.

VOTE: Dierfire

If he flips scum I'm going to need to reprocess my current reads because it means I'm making some incorrect assumptions.


In post 2700, Dierfire wrote:@nn30
I've three comments about your analysis of my voting patterns.
First, I will argue that voting for a leading wagon (adding the fourth vote to PenguinPower when he was already leading with three votes), voting for a tied wagon (adding a third vote to Gamma Emerald when he was tied with Lil Uzi Vert with two votes, adding a third vote to Grendel when he was tied with you with two votes), and voting to bring a wagon to a tie (adding a fourth vote to eagerSnake to tie boring) are three different patterns. The second one in particular is almost the opposite of voting for a consensus candidate.
Second, I will argue that I am always diligent about giving reasons for my votes so that they carry more information than just the position on the wagon. Do you have any comment about the reasons that I gave for my votes?
Third, I am wondering why the vote on boring seems incriminating to you.


In post 2702, nn30 wrote:@Dier - I apologize for not making this clear in my original post. This is my fault.

The pattern I noticed was a lack of something - the willingness to start wagons on new people. It indicates that you are adding steam to where town is already heading, but unwilling to lead it in a new direction. This pattern is more likely to come from scum (who are incentivized to remain under the radar) than town.

The vote on Boring is scummy - not because it is on Boring (I would feel how I do regardless of who you voted for) - but because it wasn't on LUV and came at a time that indicates you could have been attempting to distract from the LUV wagon.

Also, if I'm not mistaken, you expressed reasons for scum reading LUV but never found yourself on his wagon.

As for the effort you put into your thoughts and posts, I see it and acknowledge it. If you're town I appreciate it even. However, if I'm under the assumption that you are scum (which I am right now) your votes mean monumentally more than your words.


If I had to narrow my vote on boring down to a single reason, it would be that I found it unlikely that Mafia players would vote for Shadow_step rather than eagerSnake after both claims (which made Lil Uzi Vert less suspicious, you less suspicious, and boring more suspicious by virtue of the zero-sum nature of POE and your status as the only unconfirmed vote on her wagon).
I don't have an answer for the rest of this; it is true that I was suspicious of Lil Uzi Vert but did not vote for him, and I understand why that would seem suspicious after his flip.

In post 2710, nn30 wrote:I'm focusing on the posts which encompass your not voting for LUV. I'd like an explanation from you regarding them.


I'll answer each in the spoiler. (There may be some formatting difficulties ahead!)

Spoiler:
In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:1)I've read through both PenguinPower and Lil Uzi Vert again. I don't find the depth of analysis that I find in other players (Prism, Zoronos, Grendel). In general I'd characterize this as not making effort to solve the game, which is suspicious.
2)I suppose that, if I trusted my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel, I'd start lynching by POE and drop a hammer on Lil Uzi Vert, but I'm reluctant to do so for two reasons.
First, the wagon on Shadow_step after the claim yesterday does not strike me as the sort of place to find a high density of Mafia players (it would have been far easier to vote for eagerSnake). This means that Lil Uzi Vert (and nn30) should be less suspicious than the other players I'm having difficulty reading (boring, PenguinPower). As a parallel to that, if nn30 is less suspicious, it becomes difficult to see why no suspicious players are voting for boring in the quoted VC.
Second, I don't really trust my reads on Prism, Zoronos, and Grendel. I have reasons to read each as Town but I'm simply finding it too good to be true that I've narrowed the Mafia players down so much.

In post 1150, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.26
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (5): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald, nn30
eagerSnake (4): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Grendel
PenguinPower (1): Dierfire
Shadow_step (1): Lil Uzi Vert

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Prism


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring


1) You give a reason to scum read LUV
2) You explain why you aren't voting him


These are both true.

Spoiler:
In post 2194, Dierfire wrote:I believe the claim from Zoronos with a fair degree of certainty (it makes him at least as likely to be Town as Shadow_step).
1)I disbelieve the claim from Lil Uzi Vert for a few reasons. First, as Zoronos becomes more likely to be Town, my confidence in POE from earlier increases, which makes Lil Uzi Vert more likely to be Mafia at baseline. Second, the vote for Zoronos makes more sense from a Mafia player who claimed Doctor than from an actual Town Doctor (the latter has little reason to suspect that a Mafia player wants him lynched immediately rather than killed by Night, particularly at the cost of countering the claim).
2)I could think of two potential reasons to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. First, if if Lil Uzi Vert is actually a Town Doctor, it would potentially allow Gamma Emerald another action. However, I'm inclined to think that the combination of Doctor and Cop, besides being rare, would likely have a Mafia role to counter this interaction. Therefore I think that this is not a good reason to leave Lil Uzi Vert alive. It does open one other long shot; if we lynch a player who flips with a role like Mafia Strongman or Mafia Roleblocker, the Doctor claim would be much more believable.


1) You don't believe the claim from LUV.
2) You present a reason for leaving him alive anyway.


The first is true. The second is not quite true; the next two sentences discuss why I didn't believe that this was a good reason to leave him alive. I was getting ready to lynch Lil Uzi Vert at the time of this post, but I wanted to give him one more chance to make a good case on someone else (not Zoronos).

I'm combining the next quote because it's related.

In post 2197, Dierfire wrote:@Lil Uzi Vert
Your vote for Zoronos is fairly bad. I could perhaps be persuaded that it's wise to defer a decision on your lynch today, but I'd need a good lynch option and Zoronos is not that.


Again, you present a reason to not like LUV, yet you don't vote him.


This was the aforementioned "one more chance to make a good case" post.

I'm combining the next part of the quote here as well because a separate spoiler feels wasteful.

Penguin hammered shortly after this. However, given how you felt about him leading up to this it's strange that you never hopped onto his wagon. The 'I scum read LUV but let's not vote him and here's why' is definitely more than a little hinky feeling.


I'm combining all the rest into a single spoiler.

Spoiler: Comparison of the approaches to eagerSnake and Lil Uzi Vert
Let's compare your treatment of LUV to your treatment of Eager.

In post 1297, Dierfire wrote:All right, I've caught up.

I am virtually certain that Shadow_step has the Ascetic modifier, regardless of alignment (he was clearly setting up to counter the claim as soon as eagerSnake made it), and very confident that Shadow_step is Town (Mafia has low incentive to counter the claim). With eagerSnake, I was half expecting him to withdraw the claim; the fact that he hasn't rules out some Town plays (Bulletproof or Miller trying to draw the kill were my first thoughts, I also thought of Wary but I don't know if that's common on this site because I can't find it in the Wiki--certainly it's not Normal). It also weighs against some Mafia plays (I agree with the idea that a Mafia Ascetic role is powerful and probably unlikely to claim early without withdrawing the claim later, so I'd find a Mafia Goon more likely).

A few points since the claim make me suspicious of eagerSnake. First, and most obviously, eagerSnake actively resisted attempts by Zoronos ( and others) and nn30 () to provide content that would help us judge his alignment independently of the Ascetic claim. This seems consistent with a Mafia player in significant danger of being lynched and trying to avoid giving associative information (discussion of possible self-vote in is also consistent with that thought process). The vote on implosion in is also strange given that boring is the larger wagon and was the player eagerSnake was most confidently reading as Mafia (I don't see any change from ). Of course, I think that the reasons to vote for boring didn't hold much water in the first place (next post post after next), which is also suspicious (I'm not buying that eagerSnake was simply too uncertain to make a meaningful case--in that event, he should have been working at improving his reads rather than repetitively insisting that he was Town).

UNVOTE: PenguinPower
VOTE: eagerSnake

I want a full claim from eagerSnake.

I saw someone else ask this and get the "fishing" dodge, so to be clear: I am inclined to lynch eagerSnake unless he has some additional reason that we should leave him alive.


There's a lot more confidence in your read on Eager here as well as 0 credence given to Eager's theory that both he and Shadow were town.

In post 1516, Dierfire wrote:I'm ready for a hammer.

You even ask for a hammer.

Comparing your ambivalence towards LUV to your confidence in lynching Eager, and I'm just more convinced of my scum theory on you. Your behavior betrays hidden knowledge. Granted, I wasn't on the LUV wagon myself - I think I was a little snowed by him town reading me. So it's possible that you're a townie who was just more sure of Eager than of LUV. At the moment, I'm not inclined to believe that.

I look forward to your response to these things.


I'll make my response in two points.
First, I had no reason to read eagerSnake as Town and some reasons to read eagerSnake as Mafia (as I outlined when I made my vote). I had similar reasons to read Lil Uzi Vert as Mafia (as I outlined when I voted for boring), but I also had at least one reason to read Lil Uzi Vert as Town (I found the vote for Shadow_step unlikely to come from a Mafia player after both claims). This was the source of my ambivalence.
Second, I'll point out that I did somewhat consider the theory that eagerSnake and Shadow_step were both Town. I asked for a full claim from eagerSnake because I'd be more inclined to believe two Ascetic modifiers on different roles. Of course, when eagerSnake confirmed that his claim was a role with purely negative utility in (and continued to avoid giving us helpful reads in ), I was ready for a hammer.

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Post Post #2906  (isolation #94)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:07 pm

The analysis by Shadow_step in seems solid to me; nn30 would be most likely to make the kill if boring is Mafia.

So what do we do with that?

Well, a team of boring and Grendel was the last option that I had to not revise my POE, so I'll have to read Shadow_step, nn30, and Prism again, but I'm leaning toward offering the suicide pact anyway. I don't see many games in which boring is Town and there are two Mafia players in that set of three.

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Post Post #2907  (isolation #95)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:10 pm

This most recent conflict between Shadow_step and Prism makes them unlikely to be partners, too.

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Post Post #2910  (isolation #96)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:20 pm

In post 950, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.20
LynchingWith 13 votes in play, it takes 7 to lynch.

boring (4): eagerSnake, MariaR, implosion, Gamma Emerald
eagerSnake (3): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower
Shadow_step (2): nn30, Lil Uzi Vert
PenguinPower (2): Dierfire, Grendel
implosion (1): Prism

Not Voting (1): Zoronos


V/LA: Gamma Emerald

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


I'm going to go ahead and discount the possibility of nn30 and Shadow_step being partners as well--in what world would it make sense for a Mafia player to counter a claim and then both Mafia partners bus? The point of countering the claim would presumably be to get the Town player lynched!

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Post Post #2911  (isolation #97)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:23 pm

@nn30
In post 2908, nn30 wrote:In this suicide pact, who do we lynch today?

If boring flips red, what does that mean for your alignment (if anything)?


The point of the suicide pact is that the lynch order doesn't matter (that is, if I'm sufficiently confident that boring is Mafia that I offer to lose to the game if boring is Town, then I'm also sufficiently confident that I can be lynched before seeing boring flip).
Strictly speaking I'd always prefer to have boring lynched first since I know that I'm Town, though.

I'm Town no matter what boring flips! I don't think that I'd be cleared if boring flips Mafia though, if that's what you're asking.

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Post Post #2914  (isolation #98)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:33 pm

That's a good question but not one that I can answer right now.
I'm working on ruling out all teams that don't include boring (currently the only remaining team to rule out is Prism and you). Once I've finished with that, I'll decide whether to offer the suicide pact and then, if we're all agreed to lynch either boring or me, I'll work on hammering out a likely partner.

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Post Post #2916  (isolation #99)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:45 pm

My first pass didn't find anything specific that rules out Prism and nn30 as partners, but I feel that each independently is less likely to be partners with Lil Uzi Vert than boring is.

I've already mentioned why I think that interactions between Prism and Lil Uzi Vert make Prism likely to be Town.
I'm also considering again and I continue to find it unlikely that nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert would both be Mafia and would vote for Shadow_step if he is Town, particularly if that means that two leading wagons are on Town players (including eagerSnake, a far easier vote for claim-related reasons). It's a weird thing for Lil Uzi Vert to do in any case, so I'll think about it more, but I'm finding it far more likely that boring is Mafia here.

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Post Post #2953  (isolation #100)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:25 pm

This is going to look pretty bad if boring does end up flipping Mafia, but I'm still not ready for the hammer.

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Post Post #2955  (isolation #101)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:08 am

All right, here I go with the consolidated results of my reading:

Spoiler: Prism and nn30
Prism is likely to be Town and I stand by what I said earlier (). Throughout D2, Lil Uzi Vert seemed to evade his lines of questioning and Prism kept a consistent vote on Lil Uzi Vert. I additionally note that Prism makes an unlikely partner for BlackVoid due to the heat of the argument with Shadow_step.
New this issue: I also find Prism an unlikely partner for boring due to the fact that Prism and boring both voted for Lil Uzi Vert throughout D2. As boring was a major wagon D1, it would not make much sense to me that Lil Uzi Vert would be selected as the target for a committed bus; rather I would read boring's vote as designed to create distance and I would expect that the lack of a significant wagon on boring D2 indicates that the Mafia were not attempting to sacrifice there.

nn30 is unlikely to be Mafia in any case. As I've said already, the VC in makes nn30 unlikely to have been partners with Lil Uzi Vert because they stacked votes on Shadow_step when the logic for stacking votes on eagerSnake would have been easier to fabricate. This also especially makes nn30 unlikely to be Mafia with BlackVoid (because that would mean that two Mafia players stacked votes on their third partner while ignoring two larger wagons on Town players with easier logic). Finally, I agree with the analysis by Shadow_step (in ) that it seems unlikely that a Mafia team of boring and nn30 would have boring commit the kill.
New this issue: this does raise the problem of why Lil Uzi Vert, known to be Mafia, would do such a thing at all. I speculate that if Shadow_step (now BlackVoid) and boring were both Mafia the play might make some sense; Lil Uzi Vert could have been worried about stacking a third Mafia vote on eagerSnake but also reluctant to bring the boring wagon close to completion. By the same token, although to me it seems less likely, nn30 and boring could both be Mafia; in that case, nn30 and Lil Uzi Vert would have stacked on Shadow_step in order to avoid being on a wagon in direct competition with boring. This isn't wholly implausible given the way that Lil Uzi Vert migrated to the eagerSnake wagon eventually, but the way that nn30 went to the boring wagon instead () suggests to me that Shadow_step would have been a more likely third partner than nn30.

I've expressed that both Prism and nn30 are unlikely to be Mafia based on negative associations with Lil Uzi Vert, unlikely to be partners with BlackVoid, and unlikely to be partners with boring (Prism less likely than nn30). I didn't find any specific associative reason that they are unlikely to be partners with each other, but I think that the weight of the evidence for reading each individually as Town is sufficient for me to discount this.


Spoiler: BlackVoid and boring
BlackVoid still gives me trouble because of the claim by Shadow_step. However, as I've said in the above section, there are significant negative associations with Prism and nn30, so the only plausible partner would be boring--and I may have worked out a few scenarios in which the voting pattern makes sense with a Mafia team of Lil Uzi Vert, boring, and Shadow_step. Most obviously, the odd behavior by Lil Uzi Vert (voting for Shadow_step rather than eagerSnake) raises my suspicion that something strange is going on, and it would make sense if boring is Mafia and eagerSnake already had two Mafia votes. The way that Lil Uzi Vert was so conservative with votes D1 (the vote for Shadow_step after both claims were out was the first vote since RVS) would also fit a player scared to vote in general, which is consistent with a player scared to stack votes with partners. Furthermore, I found that the reaction that Shadow_step had to seeing boring at L-1 ( and , no hammer on boring and continues to push the nn30 lynch despite what appears to be a case against boring in ) makes Shadow_step more likely to be partners with boring and less likely to be partners with nn30. More recently, I note that boring and Shadow_step have been fighting (, , ) but without voting in a way that resembles creating distance (for example, Shadow_step claimed to have found my VT claim most suspicious in and to have preferred to lynch boring in , but kept a vote on nn30 throughout). In fact, Shadow_step never voted for boring, and boring votes Shadow_step in at a time when the lynch is unpopular (marked opposition from me in , implosion in , Zoronos in , PenguinPower in ).
So what about that claim? On its face, I still have problems with it because the Ascetic claim ought to be low priority for the Mafia to counter (it is relatively easily dispatched by night or lynched later), and because Shadow_step did appear lay early groundwork for doubting the claim. My only proposed solutions are either that Shadow_step really had the Ascetic modifier and decided to commit to playing like a Town Ascetic (with a bit of recklessness), or that Shadow_step has the Traitor role.
  • Ascetic first: while I think that it's clear that Shadow_step was laying the groundwork to doubt the claim from eagerSnake, on further review of D1 material I don't actually see much evidence that this requires Town alignment rather than just keeping the option to counter the claim later. Posts like , , and can be used as evidence that Shadow_step doubts the claim, but don't commit Shadow_step to a specific reason for that doubt (that is, there is no crumb that specifically points to Shadow_step being Ascetic).
  • Traitor next: there was a mention of the role by Shadow_step in , which raised my hackles a bit because the context was incorrect (Traitor is not immune to Cop as confirmed by Mod in ). I consider a fringe theory that this mention of Traitor and the early RVS vote for Lil Uzi Vert () were attempts to subtly inform the Mafia players of the situation. I also considered again the interactions between Shadow_step and Lil Uzi Vert that I quoted in , and they require only that Lil Uzi Vert was unaware of Shadow_step's alignment, not the reverse.

In any case I think that it's evident that the claim was the only major reason to read Shadow_step as Town. I read Grendel's again and find the associations with Lil Uzi Vert and the steep decline in activity persuasive as reasons to be suspicious of Shadow_step.

boring is the player that I most expect to be Mafia. I had difficulties with reading her for a long time (, , ), but by a combination of associations (), VCA (), and an accumulation of points that other players made (), I'm reading her as Mafia. I've discussed above why I find her an unlikely partner for Prism, a reasonably likely partner for BlackVoid, and a less likely partner for nn30.


In summary:
I think that the most likely Mafia team is boring and BlackVoid.
I think that the next most likely Mafia team is boring and nn30.
I rate all remaining teams are well below these in terms of likelihood.

I'm holding my vote for now in case there is any other important discussion that needs to happen today, and so that Zoronos can again name a target for the event that boring flips Mafia, but otherwise I'm committing to reading boring as Mafia and ready to drop the hammer.

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Post Post #3023  (isolation #102)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:30 pm

I'm still inclined to vote for boring. I don't believe that "pretend to self-hammer" gets any meaningful reactions. It's more likely that she missed implosion removing his vote in .

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Post Post #3026  (isolation #103)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:41 pm

I believe that Prism was intending to return with content shortly.

I suppose that I could drop the hammer anyway as Prism is likely to survive to share content, but that seems rude to me.

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Post Post #3065  (isolation #104)  » Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:25 am

In post 3053, nn30 wrote:Does anyone NOT think Dier should be today's lynch?


Ha ha, I don't!

In seriousness, I understand that I'm likely to be lynched today. My most recent thoughts are in , but the Neapolitan flip concerns me because it means that Town Ascetic does have some positive utility in this game, and obviously if BlackVoid were a Traitor we would have won the game by now.

Today is a busy day for me, but I'll make some time to read again tomorrow and see if I come up with anything.

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Post Post #3069  (isolation #105)  » Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:38 am

@BlackVoid
In post 3066, BlackVoid wrote:What worried me about your posts D4 were that you wrote a lot of stuff without concretely saying that anyone is scum. I want to see you make direct accusations.


This doesn't sound true to me! I thought that my was very clear; I was reading boring strongly as Mafia, I listed you as the most likely partner, and I gave reasons for those things. I listed nn30 as the next most likely partner, and I gave reasons for that. I listed Prism as an unlikely partner, and I gave reasons for that. Did you have any comment about the reasons that I gave?

I've not finished reading the entire game again, but my current thought is that you are most likely to be Mafia--there is my accusation.

I feel that my strongest point is the behavior that Lil Uzi Vert exhibited in voting for your slot rather than eagerSnake after the two claims.

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Post Post #3071  (isolation #106)  » Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:27 am

For the first, there's a limited pool of players! Certainly you'll see that I'm more confident that implosion is Town, and obviously I know that I am Town. So, you are the second most likely player to be Mafia just because I find you more suspicious than Prism. (If the phrasing is creating difficulty, I could also say that you were more likely to be partners with boring than Zoronos or implosion were, and you will see that "unlikely to be Mafia" still has you in the bottom half of the list).

For the second, I think that Lil Uzi Vert was scared to have all three Mafia votes on eagerSnake.

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Post Post #3084  (isolation #107)  » Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:34 pm

In post 3080, nn30 wrote:Shadow's D1 play makes sense as town - this is a bad gambit.


I want to note that this was, empirically, a good gambit for a Mafia player to make. If Shadow_step was Mafia, then the gambit was greatly successful at little cost (we're still talking about it as one of the primary reasons to read Shadow_step as Town after multiple days of play and two Mafia flips).
I'll agree that it did and does seem unlikely as a gambit (because these sorts of things don't often occur to Mafia players when less effortful measures are available), but the move was demonstrably a good one for a Mafia player to make.

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Post Post #3086  (isolation #108)  » Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:05 am

In post 3085, nn30 wrote:If this were true a mafia player would be the first to point out why it was a bad gambit to make as scum.


What does this mean?

Additionally, Boring's behavior after Shadow CC'd was a very quick reaction. I find it unlikely that Shadow_Step and Boring planned this together and that Boring reacted so quickly to Shadow's CC.

To me it reads more like Boring seeing an opportunity and hopping on it in order to secure a mis-lynch.


This is fair. I'll think about it more.

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Post Post #3090  (isolation #109)  » Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:19 am

@nn30
I think that you are saying that the Mafia players would have been likely to (claim to) strongly read Shadow_step as Town for the gambit, in order to support the gambit and influence Town players to do the same.

Would you then say that boring did this?

I looked again at the reactions that boring and Lil Uzi Vert had to the claim, and they are sort of opposite reactions (Lil Uzi Vert stalls for a long time, then votes for Shadow_step; boring immediately reverses her read on eagerSnake and votes for him).

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Post Post #3094  (isolation #110)  » Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:03 am

@nn30
In post 3091, nn30 wrote:I'll make you a deal Dierfire.

We lynch you today. Before we lynch you, name the person you have pegged as your top scum. Tomorrow, if I'm still alive, I'll take your word from the grave as the gospel and push for them all day long. You can even name me as your target and I would honor this agreement.


Ha ha, no, that's not the deal! The deal is that I give you a name, but if you follow me and I'm wrong then I blame you anyway!

In seriousness, this was already mostly how I expected today to go (except that I wasn't expecting anyone to commit to honoring my read after my flip).

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Post Post #3096  (isolation #111)  » Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:29 am

Yes, that's acceptable to me (I didn't really expect anything better anyway).

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Post Post #3098  (isolation #112)  » Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:40 am

In post 3069, Dierfire wrote:I've not finished reading the entire game again, but my current thought is that [BlackVoid is] most likely to be Mafia--there is my accusation.

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Post Post #3107  (isolation #113)  » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:52 am

I apologize for doing this, but I'm busy with Thanksgiving and haven't yet found anything useful from reading again, so I'm dodging for today.

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Post Post #3111  (isolation #114)  » Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:01 pm

I've read through intermittently over the last few days, and I'm not finding anything groundbreaking that changes my opinion.

If Prism is Mafia then I am deceived completely.

I don't rate nn30 being Mafia as impossible but I rate it less likely than BlackVoid being Mafia.

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Post Post #3120  (isolation #115)  » Sun Nov 27, 2016 3:05 pm

I've nothing further to add; I'm just avoiding a prod.

I guess that I'll put my vote on BlackVoid, but unless Prism comes back with a radically different opinion I thought that we were mostly defaulting to lynching me and then sorting things out at LYLO.

VOTE: BlackVoid

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Post Post #3130  (isolation #116)  » Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:39 am

I appreciate the effort that you put into this. I've many small objections, but for most the expedient of flipping Town will be sufficient.

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Post Post #3463  (isolation #117)  » Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:15 am

Hurrah, we won! I'm fairly impressed with nn30 and BlackVoid pulling through in LYLO there. I don't know if I'm just bad at this or what, but it was far from clear to me that Prism was Mafia at the time of my death. Maybe the protracted LYLO helped, but I probably would have lost in a similar position.

@nn30 @BlackVoid
Well done, and thanks for carrying me to victory!

---

Reading through the Mafia PT, I'm also really impressed with how much thought and planning went into the Mafia team's game. From the night actions to the interactions among Mafia players by day, everything was considered in great detail.

@boring
You sounded scared of me in the Mafia PT, which is flattering but probably unwarranted! I'm usually rather easy to lynch because Town players don't like my style (I sent the Mod a note early D2 that I was expecting to be lynched D3 or D4 because even players who read me as Town aren't usually interested in working to fight my lynch).

(Also reading back my ISO before Gamma Emerald claimed is a bad experience. I was lucky this game in that my primary suspicions had roles and died by night, so my reads--bad as they were--are actually artificially better than they would have been otherwise)

@Prism
I'm sorry to hear about your difficulties. I hope that things get better for you. Whatever you think of your own play, you certainly deceived me.

---
@Mod
Thanks for running the game! I had a lot of fun.

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Post Post #3479  (isolation #118)  » Thu Dec 15, 2016 12:54 am

@Grendel
In post 3478, Grendel wrote:It seemed like Dierfire only voted me for an apparent PoE for the entirety of the day. I thought that was really lazy from my PoV.

You're not wrong! It was a fairly lazy way to work on my part. I was not really an asset to the Town in this game--my apologies.

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Pronoun: He

Post Post #3481  (isolation #119)  » Thu Dec 15, 2016 1:26 am

Ha ha, I guess that that depends on what you mean by "safely ignore" here! It's true that most of the time when I'm addressing someone specific I don't really require anyone else to weigh in, but it seems to me that if you wanted to know what I was thinking (in order to read my alignment, correct my mistakes, or be persuaded by my arguments) a good first step would be to read what I write.


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