Mini Normal #1838 - Game Over

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Post Post #1868  (isolation #200)  » Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:16 pm

In post 1865, Grendel wrote:I'm not gonna sit here an argue about theory any more then I have too. But I do believe that NK analysis has some uses, and it has short comings, I feel it is more useful then it is useless. So I do partake.

Why is Gamma Town?

Why am I being dismissed as bad town here? Is it just because I like using meta as a scum hunting tool?


Because you're making classic mistakes; you're overvaluing meta, you're engaging deep in NK spec, during D1 you constructed elaborate explanations for RVS questions, you're constructing elaborate pre-flip associatives, etc. You look, to me, like you're trying to solve the game and that makes you town, which means I want to work with you. However, it's really frustrating because from my perspective you're jumping into holes over and over.

I layed out my reasons for Gamma being town back on D1, if you are too lazy to find them in ISO, the basics was that he was playing actively anti-charistmatically, but wasn't using those objections to drive a scum case. Basically, he was playing in a fashion that made himself easier to lynch and that was likely to induce prejudice, which is against the scum win-con.
For the D2 case, he's basically just playing like an idiot - His play right now is in no way contributing to a scum win con. He's not playing to survive, at least not constructively. He's under pressure and is flailing, but is making absolutely no effort to conceal that flail. If he were scum and my train were the mislynch (or boring's), he'd have been massively incentivized to vote park and then not participate further. Instead, he painted a massive target on his back by acting loud and crazy.
If he's scum, then his scum game plan is awful and makes no sense. It looks the same to me as the behavior of Eager at the end of D1.
So yeah, I don't really want to lynch him.

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Post Post #1869  (isolation #201)  » Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:17 pm

In post 1866, Grendel wrote:I don't think it can be GammaXPengiun. Gamma seemed perfectly happy to see Penguin strung up when he sheeped me.


I was actually thinking more about their argument when Penguin was in danger of being strung up on D1. That looked reasonably genuine, rather than like distancing. But your point here is a good one.

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Post Post #1870  (isolation #202)  » Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:19 pm

In post 1867, boring wrote:@zoronos - I've found my scum, made my case, and I've staked out a few more options. Sure, I have one more scum read than there are scum, but I'm working on it. I've hunted down some town too, whom I'm using as a gauge for my own reads.

So I don't know where you get off saying I've not been hunting. Especially with all your largely voteless posturing.

Vote LUV, and find out how much hunting I've done.

@zoronos - I've found my scum, made my case, and I've staked out a few more options. Sure, I have one more scum read than there are scum, but I'm working on it. I've hunted down some town too, whom I'm using as a gauge for my own reads.So I don't know where you get off saying I've not been hunting. Especially with all your largely voteless posturing. Vote LUV, and find out how much hunting I've done.


I feel you've been much more reactive than pro-active, but if I can't get any traction on PP, my vote will be on LUV because I don't think it's going on Gamma at this juncture.
My vote is exactly where it should be and I find it crazy that nobody else will join me here. PP has done *nothing* today. How is that possibly town play? The heat is off him, so he just nope'd out of playing.

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Post Post #1874  (isolation #203)  » Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:13 pm

In post 1872, Grendel wrote:Okay, so if you reasoning for Gamma!town today is that his play style isn't helping move a scum win-con. How is Penguin's laziness going to help his win-con as scum?

Low content posting will most likely result in Penguin's lynch if he keeps it up over time.

The trouble with your D1 Gamma case is that Gamma always plays in that manner. You're town reading him for reasons I find non-AI as far as Gamma goes.


Lurking is a great way to avoid lynches, and is exactly what Penguin is doing. I mean, he's got one vote on him (mine). Lurking is a strong scum strategy because there's nothing to hang a case off of. It's really hard to get people to agree to lynch the guy just not posting because there's almost nothing in his history to grab and say "This is a scummy post". Nobody is paying attention to him, or at least he's nobody's TOP SCUM (other than mine), so I'd say it's advancing a scum win con great. He's being forgotten, and he's not contributing to town. He's not collaborating with his town reads (does he have any? I couldn't really say), he's not investigating.

I explained my D1 read in greater depth earlier, it's in my ISO if you want to go find it. I certainly don't know how he 'always plays' but it strikes me as a really stupid way to play scum to start by immediately offending town players. His play just doesn't seem survival-oriented, at least not in any effective way.

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Post Post #1876  (isolation #204)  » Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:14 pm

In post 1873, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1872, Grendel wrote:The trouble with your D1 Gamma case is that Gamma always plays in that manner. You're town reading him for reasons I find non-AI as far as Gamma goes.


I do, begrudgingly, have to support this. He was almost mislynched in a newbie game I was obvscum in because he just wears it on his sleeve.


You were voting Gamma quite recently, and never really posted much to say your read had flipped, so why is this a begrudging agreement?
Also, this is a really odd phrasing if he was town at the time, since Grendel is arguing it makes him scum now.

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Post Post #1904  (isolation #205)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 2:17 pm

O.o

So, your only mention of Implosion today was
In post 1560, Gamma Emerald wrote:So other than Eager, Maria and implosion, who believed there could be 2 town ascetics?


Which I guess fits with 2-conf-town plus an investigation. Welp.

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Post Post #1905  (isolation #206)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 2:18 pm

I think some folks should unvote while we wait for people to check in and see if there's a counterclaim.

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Post Post #1915  (isolation #207)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:10 pm

In post 1914, Dierfire wrote:Do you still feel that PenguinPower is unlikely to be Mafia with Grendel or boring?


I am less certain that I used to be; specifically, the difficulty in getting votes to stick him on has made me less certain of that conclusion than I was at the start of the day.
Those associatives were born from looking at the D1 vote counters. was the peak of the D1 Penguin votes, and boring and Grendel were both in the first-three votes on him.

I'd need to re-read the initial Penguin train to give you a better insight.

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Post Post #1917  (isolation #208)  » Sat Oct 22, 2016 7:25 pm

I see your point.
I'd need to re-read D1 to give a more complete answer.

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Post Post #1927  (isolation #209)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 3:48 pm

In post 1916, Dierfire wrote:The reason that I ask is that the final VC suggests to me that there aren't many cases in which PenguinPower is Mafia without one of those players.

In post 1539, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 1.36
LynchingFINAL

eagerSnake (7): Shadow_step, boring, PenguinPower, Dierfire, Prism, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert
boring (4): MariaR, implosion, nn30, eagerSnake

Not Voting (2): Zoronos, Grendel


V/LA: none

Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-18 15:22:00)


Going back to this - What, if anything, do you feel this says about the Boring train?

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Post Post #1931  (isolation #210)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:06 pm

In post 1928, nn30 wrote:
In post 1903, Gamma Emerald wrote:With PenguinPower technically having already claimed intent, I don't see any reason not to claim at this point.
I'm a Town Cop with a Night 1 Town result on Implosion.


This is a particularly difficult claim to sort.

Options:

1) He's telling the truth. Don't kill him because he's a strong town PR.

2) He's scum and he's lying. Cop is a powerful role to claim as scum - especially in games where he may not get counter claimed. It puts town in a tough situation deciding to kill him or not.


(Ignoring that 'these are the options' is pretty obvious)
Which do you feel is more likely and why?

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Post Post #1938  (isolation #211)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 6:59 pm

In post 1934, nn30 wrote:Why - because his "this was my thought process" post seems pretty legit actually. I wasn't expecting to be swayed by it but here we are.


Cool beans.
I find the question "Why did you target X" is a really bad one personally; I find town make really silly decisions on NA targeting frequently, and it's an easy way to hang a PR.
I get really suspicious really quickly if someone responds to the answer to that question with "That's illogical you must be scum!"

(I find the importance is what the player has done since the information - If Gamma were still treating Implosion as suspicious, that would suggest to me fake claim. I.E. how they use the outputs is more telling then what inputs drove the decision. Inputs are effectively random.)

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Post Post #1941  (isolation #212)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:03 pm

I mean, I'm a little biased here since I thought Gamma was town prior to the claim, but basically putting Implosion in a list with 2 dead town and then ignoring him in terms of sorting is pretty much the action set I'd expect from a cop. He knows Implosion is town, so he's dealing with everyone else.
It would be more telling if he started to attempt to actively cooperate with Implosion, but that's a personality / playstyle thing.

Fake edit:

In post 1940, nn30 wrote:
In post 1938, Zoronos wrote:He hasn't scumread implosion all day. He scum read him yesterday. Still finding myself swayed here.


Yes, I'm agreeing with you.

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Post Post #1942  (isolation #213)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:04 pm

Ugh I fucked up that quote tagging. I hate how these boards nest quotes within quotes by default.

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Post Post #1944  (isolation #214)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:11 pm

For NA's? I find NA targeting reasoning is easy to fake. I think it's much more difficult to keep play after the fake NA consistent than it is to come up with a scenario for why you targeted somebody. Moreover, I find town target people for stupid reasons all the time (I certainly do) so am suspicious of people trying to hang PR claims for "Who you targeted doesn't make sense".
The place to catch scum is when they act suspicious of their own "clears", imo.

In this case, yeah, I think Gamma's thought process is fine. But I wasn't really analyzing Gamma with my question, I was analyzing you.

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Post Post #1947  (isolation #215)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:39 pm

In post 1945, nn30 wrote:@Zoro -

Well if that's the case, you should know that if I didn't think Gamma's thought process made sense I would have pinned his as scum. It was an option at the time.


And I've have argued with you about it. I've seen town make the "Your logic doesn't make sense you're scum" argument; I think it's more likely from scum (because I love doing it as scum >.>) than as town, but I've seen it come from town. It says more that you chose *not* to go that route than that you did. That was the intent of the question.

It's a personality thing. "Everyone plays logically" players will take it as a scum tell while town, so picking apart the "No he's scummy for it" response depends a lot on the personality and propensity to project of the questioner. Whereas "Eh, logic checks out" is usually townish regardless of personality involved.
I've had this argument *a lot* on the boards I used to play on. >.>

Anyway.

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Post Post #1949  (isolation #216)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 7:52 pm

I was thinking she was likely scum at the open of the day, then I began to swing around to neutral because of the way she was playing cooperatively and attempting to work with other players, even those accusing her of being scum.
She's less proactive than I normally would expect from town (which leads me to believe scum) but it's possible that's a playstyle element. I lean it scum but it's not a surefire tell.
However, looking at the train from end of day D1 is swinging me back around to thinking she's scummy because every player on that train is either flipped town, theoretically-investigated-town, or a town read of mine.

It's giving me a lot of pause on accepting an LUV lynch because I'm really not sure I trust Boring's motivations for pushing that, even if I can see some of the points being made. Which makes me dig in my heels more on my PP train.

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Post Post #1953  (isolation #217)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:15 pm

Are you distorting on purpose, or just on accident?

Because was a D2 post where you had been afk all day or otherwise non-contributory. So while your spending the last half of D1 chasing down Implosion is all well and good, you weren't around to help me go after him on D2. If you had actually been around to do anything, it would be false. But you weren't, so.

I am not sure what you think 1447 is saying other than that I had a lean scum read on Implosion and a lean town read on you so... ???
And I was never building up to hammer eager; I was trying to figure out Boring. Which should have been super obvious from my continual questions to her. And yeah, I'm not putting the second vote on a lean scum read when my primary scum read has 4 votes and is the primary counterwagon to a town read.
I was frustrated with Eager because I thought he was defending himself ineffectively and otherwise playing poorly, but I kept trying to throw him lifelines to pull himself back. Trying to paint me as having a scum read on Eager is fundamentally disingenuous.

(And frankly, I'm glad I didn't listen to you, because my read on Implosion was wrong)

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Post Post #1955  (isolation #218)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:37 pm

Prism you never answered my question on why you think Penguin is town.

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Post Post #1956  (isolation #219)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:40 pm

In post 1954, PenguinPower wrote:So why wasn't your vote on your primary scum read at the time?


Because I wasn't sure yet, that's why I was still busy asking questions when LUV swung the hammer.

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Post Post #1962  (isolation #220)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 8:50 pm

In post 1959, Grendel wrote:Funnily enough I would like to see Penguin lynched now that Gamma is highly likely town. But I don't trust you at all. I mean I'd be just as content with yours as Penguin's lynch right now.

You also aren't going that far out of your comfort zone to get Penguin lynched. After proving a case, you basically sat back and complained that nobody was sheeping you.

Yes, play style has an effect here (e.i. passive/time restricted players), but I don't think your either of these. You've been somebody who is an active poster (Not time restricted), and had a strong voice (Not Passive), yet you haven't done much campaigning one-on-one to get Penguin lynched. Speaking today, the closest that come to this was when you were explaining your Penguin scum read to Implosion, and boring. I think you talked about Penguin yester some to, but never voted, or anything. So that is a shrug.

The same thing with your town reads too. You didn't struggle to derail the Eager wagon yesterday, or Gamma wagon today. You sort of just pointed out that you thought they were town, and left it at that. IF you were so sure they would flip town why did you not talk people off their wagons?

I guess you could say I'm expecting too much of you. But you're clearly demonstrated your experience this game spans beyond a lot of this roster, and you've been more then a little opinionated on matters of play style. Why town!you is this complacent about pushing your reads is beyond me.

Pre-edit: sup dudes


You think I've 'sat back' since putting my case on Penguin? Seriously? I've been demanding people explain why they think he's town over and over. And everyone but Gamma has fucking ignored me. I tried to sell his case repeatedly today and reiterated my reasons for it.

Also, bullshit I didn't struggle to derail the Eager wagon. I explained over and over that his play made no sense as a scum line, and that the ascetic counterclaim held no water.
Furthermore, I told you today that your meta read on Gamma was not good and that I thought he was town. I explained why I thought he was town, and you ignored me in favor of your meta read. I absolutely tried to tell you were that you were wrong, so don't give me that crap. If I didn't care about a gamma mislynch, I would have shut the hell up about why you were wrong and just let you carry on your merry way. I got in your way instead and said that meta reading Gamma was a bad plan. You just ignored me.

Of all the things that you could say I've been, complacent about pushing my reads when I think people are wrong isn't fucking one of them.

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Post Post #1979  (isolation #221)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 9:44 pm

Fine, fuck it I will quote my own ISO because apparently you refuse to read it before throwing out posts.

In post 1968, Grendel wrote:
Shouting into the void=/=proactively trying to convince people that Penguin is best wagon.

Well, then. Let's go look at the places where I talked to people specifically.

Here's D1 where I talked to Dierfire about it.
- I specifically told LUV he was top scum, right after my initial explanation of the read ()
- I talked to Boring about it.
/ / - I engaged Gamma about it.
/ / - I talked to Implosion about my case.
- This was kinda in response to a question about me, but I took the opportunity to talk to NN about my Penguin case and why I was okay voting him.
- I talked to Boring about my scum read.
- I reiterated to Boring that I wasn't going to vote Gamma, and was voting Penguin and that she / others should join me there.
- I advocated to you why I thought Penguin was scum.

In post 1968, Grendel wrote:Telling Eager that he needs to act more town+ once again shouting into the void=/= trying to reason directly with the people on Eager's wagon.
How many time did you directly talk to anybody by name when doing your convincing?

*sigh*
Okay, let's just cite. Here's Eager.
- I told SS I town leaned the slot.
- I told Boring I was okay with how Eager played his claim and how the line of questioning on him was invalid.
- After a bunch of talking to Eager about his reads and motivations, here I responded to Penguin and explained why I thought Eager's line of play didn't make sense as scum.
- I told you that ignoring setup meta re: Eager was a good idea.

The thread got into a bit of a lull, so around I rambled a bit, then wandered off into Narnia trying to scum hunt boring or for an alternative train. Maria was basically repeating my point and quoting my post about scum never pre-claiming Ascetic, so I didn't feel much need to individually reiterate that read.
I specifically asked Prism not to swing the hammer in because I was still trying to find a lynch I liked better than Eager. Then he got hammered by LUV.

And here's Gamma:
- I tell Penguin that I think Gamma is town and explain my read.
- I talk with Implosion about my Gamma town read, and explain why I think it's right and that he is wrong to scumread Gamma.
- I tell you that I think Gamma is town.
- I told NN30 I thought Gamma was town.
- I told you again that I think Gamma is town.
- I argued with you some more, repeating that I think Gamma is town.
- I explained to Boring why I thought your argument about Gamma being scum was invalid.
- I told you some more that Gamma was likely town.

So. Yeah. You're seeing what you want, not what actually is. Which blows my mind that you can magically forgot how much I was arguing with *you specifically* that your meta read on Gamma wasn't great and that Penguin was scum, but that's where we are.

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Post Post #1991  (isolation #222)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:05 pm

I'm already tired of wall posting and quote splitting so I am going to respond to Prism roughly in order.
a) Oops. I thought I had quoted your post about your order of lynches, and asked why Penguin was in the town half. But I guess I never posted it while I was talking to NN. That's my bad. I thought I had posted it, but I guess I didn't.
So I'll just ask it properly then, Why is PP town?
b) 'k
c) Well, that was a D2 post so it was the summary of my D2 feelings. If you've got a problem with that, maybe show up D2.
d) It was a summary of my thoughts with explanation. When you quoted that post, you specifically cut off the first line of it. "I want to finish talking to Boring before contemplating flash wagons.". Why wasn't I voting Implosion with you? Because as I said in the first line of the post you quoted, because I wanted to finish talking to Boring before contemplating a flash wagon.
I fail to see how it's unclear why I didn't vote him with you, *because it was in the post you quoted*. You just cut it out of the quote.
e) Yes, because it's how I roll.
f) See (d). I was still trying to figure out boring when the hammer swung. I specifically posted asking you *not* to swing the hammer because I wasn't done yet. Also, if you're looking for the place where I started outlining my suspicion of boring before going into questioning her, is the place you're looking for. If you look a couple posts up () you see I was just talking to Eager about boring being scum. Then I went into questioning boring, because that's how I operate.
g) I was frustrated by his poor play, because it's really hard to defend someone when I kept trying to throw him lifelines to pull himself back and he kept knocking them away and yelling nonsense instead. I tried to cajole him into playing well. I tried to explain to him to play well. Then I started threatening him to play well. But I did not vote him or hammer him, so you are making things up that are not in evidence.

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Post Post #1993  (isolation #223)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:05 pm

That was in response to . Responses are in order to the quote splits.

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Post Post #2010  (isolation #224)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:28 pm

I am having trouble following the thread of this conversation, but I think we're in meta land again kinda.
I do appreciate that you're with me on PP -> Scum NN! But I'd prefer that meta not be used as the basis for that. Meta for, meta against, all just meta. Meta, in my experience, is fertile ground for confirmation bias. It's too easy to see what you're already looking for in meta.
Anyway. I think the most productive question to ask about PP, the one that leads me to think he's scum, is "Is PP making an earnest effort to solve the game, identify the scum, and advance his case for that? Is he working with his town reads to sort out scum from town?" I feel the answer here is no.

I'm going to be off for a few hours at least, laters.

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Post Post #2012  (isolation #225)  » Sun Oct 23, 2016 10:33 pm

And I respect that. I just wanted to chime in before darting off for the rest of the evening.
That's the main reason I dislike meta. Not that it's always wrong, or that it's always right. It's just so easy to see the thing you're looking for already in it.

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Post Post #2035  (isolation #226)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:53 am

Wait, did you get a No Result or an Innocent?
I am failing to understand why we're down the rabbit hole of commuters and ascetics here.

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Post Post #2038  (isolation #227)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:37 am

In post 2036, Gamma Emerald wrote:I got Town.

Then I guess I'm really unclear why we're on this tangent?

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Post Post #2039  (isolation #228)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:27 pm

In post 2019, implosion wrote:PP being acerbic isn't scummy. It's arguably (which I'd agree with) bad play, but it's not like it has a scum motivation that makes particularly much sense.

I still really think PP is town. LUV hasn't ever done anything particularly towny to me; I still just have a hard time reading him but I'm fine with him as a lynch (and happier with him than PP). The only thing that really gives me pause is that boring is voting him but associatives are bad etc.


So, Implosion -
I vaguely agree on the first point; specifically I agree with the notation of it being bad play for the same reason that anti-charismatic player is bad regardless of alignment. I think anti-charisma when not pressured is more anti-scummy than being acerbic when pressured (since there's more motivation to hide reasoning / to make engagement unpalatable). It was part of what lead me to initially town-read Gamma (specifically, Gamma was acerbic but without attaching a scum read to it. He just acted anti-charismatic for no gain).

But, can you talk to me about why you think PP is town? What are you seeing that I'm missing? Help me understand this one, because I can't get my head around a town PP here.

re: LUV
as I said earlier today, my boring suspicion remains moderate to high, so I'm vaguely uncomfortable with any train of which she is the voice.
Which I guess is a long way of saying, help me work through my boring read.
My boring read is stronger than my 'dumpster a person who is noncontributory / nonsensical' stance at the moment, so I'm not super comfortable swinging that direction. I get where you're coming from, but my hackles are too far up at Boring at the moment.

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Post Post #2042  (isolation #229)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:51 pm

In post 2041, boring wrote:
In post 2039, Zoronos wrote:re: LUV
as I said earlier today, my boring suspicion remains moderate to high, so I'm vaguely uncomfortable with any train of which she is the voice.
Which I guess is a long way of saying, help me work through my boring read.
My boring read is stronger than my 'dumpster a person who is noncontributory / nonsensical' stance at the moment, so I'm not super comfortable swinging that direction. I get where you're coming from, but my hackles are too far up at Boring at the moment.

How about this: Help me lynch LUV. Then Day 3, you and I (and implosion too, if that's what we're into) can go into couples counseling together.


I don't think I'm ready for that level of commitment yet.

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Post Post #2044  (isolation #230)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:06 pm

Man, my gif game is weak. I don't know how to properly respond to that.
I am clearly out of practice on the most important of mafia skills.

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Post Post #2055  (isolation #231)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:25 pm

Did he attack you in general, or your argument?

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Post Post #2059  (isolation #232)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:01 pm

In post 2058, implosion wrote:I feel like we've been through this song and dance already. I put stock in meta and you don't. I put stock in tonality and you don't. I don't think I can convince you since you don't believe the underlying tenets of my reasons to be valid.


Okay. At this point I'm accepting your towniness based on the clear, so am interested in working with you to figure out why we're seeing the same events diametrically oppositly. But I respect that the reasoning behind that may not be useful to me.

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Post Post #2067  (isolation #233)  » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:17 pm

So.... as much fun as dictionary time is.
NN, do you feel your case is still valid? Either the underlying point about his scum play, or the built-upon-reaction case.

(I agree with the distinction between 'wrong' and 'lying', but that's really beside the point.)

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Post Post #2069  (isolation #234)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:56 am

Well then.
LUV - Talk to me. Who are your best scum reads? What do you think about the people voting on you - Whose cases are bad? Or do you think it's all mistaken town? (I am presuming here you are going to claim town and that you're being mislynched.

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Post Post #2074  (isolation #235)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:11 am

I guess the pertinent question - Penguin, do you think NN was attempting to *actively and malicious* distort your record, or that he a 'wrong but without malice' view of your record / meta?

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Post Post #2075  (isolation #236)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:23 am

In post 2070, Dierfire wrote:My vote is for boring. I haven't seen many good reasons to read her as Mafia, but I've seen none to read her as Town and I think that the VC shows, at a minimum, Mafia players avoiding her wagon.

VOTE: boring


I was making parts of a case D1, though it never got far enough along to be something I was really happy with. What do you think of what I was writing back them?
Not in a place where I can go pull up the posts, sorry.

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Post Post #2082  (isolation #237)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:59 am

In post 2076, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2074, Zoronos wrote:I guess the pertinent question - Penguin, do you think NN was attempting to *actively and malicious* distort your record, or that he a 'wrong but without malice' view of your record / meta?


I think that he misconstrued - though I'm not sure how since he never provided an example - my meta (hence honest lie), and that he legit feels he found a scum slip. I also think that he's wrong on all accounts, and his relentless tunneling based on my initial callout is bad for town.


In post 2077, Gamma Emerald wrote:@PenguinPower - do you scumread nn30 because of his misconstruation? Simplest we can go.


Yeah, this is basically where I was going with the question.
I still hold that my case on Penguin is valid, but I'm not sure I see the second-layer-intent case. That back and forth was kinda mystifying for me so trying to unpack it a tad.

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Post Post #2083  (isolation #238)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:01 am

In post 2080, Shadow_step wrote:This is a very good VCA
Eagersnake, maria are town, consider Implo and GE town.
Boring wagon was all town? Unlikely
NN is prob scum

In post 2081, Shadow_step wrote:Intent to hammer LUV


SS - Explain this sequence of posts for me.
So think based on the VCA that NN is prob scum, but you're going to hammer LUV and end the day before investigating that? Or do you feel that LUV's flip is a critical input before that investigation can occur?

Or just independent uncorrelated events?

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Post Post #2086  (isolation #239)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:23 am

In post 2085, Shadow_step wrote:I want to lock LUV into a claim, I think he is also scum.
I don't want the day to end prematurely no.


Do you think the Boring wagon being 'all town' says anything about Boring, or specifically that NN is scum and hiding on it?

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Post Post #2087  (isolation #240)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:25 am

In post 2084, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don't think Penguin's actions surrounding his meta are scummy.


In short, I think my case on Penguin is a good one, and NN's back and forth with Penguin mostly just confused me. He (NN) ended up on a train I like, so I'm trying to figure out how he got there and detangle the order of events.
I like people voting my scum reads, but I like people voting my scum reads for good reasons even more.

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Post Post #2088  (isolation #241)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:39 am

So.... did LUV just straight up ghost the thread?

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Post Post #2093  (isolation #242)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:47 am

In post 2090, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:
In post 2081, Shadow_step wrote:Intent to hammer LUV


I'm a town doc.

Counterclaim, town jailer

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Post Post #2094  (isolation #243)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:48 am

Bullshit we have a jailer and a doc.

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Post Post #2098  (isolation #244)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:52 am

Is something unclear about this sequence of events? I am counterclaiming him because it seems insane to me that we'd have both a jailer and a doc in a game of this size.
Also, there's a reason ascetic jumped out to me as reasonable. It means I can't protect them; I can't interact with them at all - not save them, not roleblock them.

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Post Post #2100  (isolation #245)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:55 am

Why would he self hammer if town?

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Post Post #2101  (isolation #246)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:55 am

I mean, I could obviously hammer him but didn't want to because I figured a counterclaim would provoke some discussion.

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Post Post #2106  (isolation #247)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:20 pm

In post 2103, Gamma Emerald wrote:Do you mean jailkeeper Zoronos?


Yes. I was on my phone when I posted the counter claim, and defaulted to using the verbiage of the site I normally play on.
That's why you got two one sentence posts.

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Post Post #2109  (isolation #248)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:54 pm

I'm not saying where I normally play; I prefer to keep it private. It's a closed community. Sorry.

I pick someone at night, and they can't​ ​perform any​ ​of​ ​their​ ​night​ ​actions,​ ​and​ ​are​ ​protected​ ​from​ ​any​ ​incoming​ ​attacks​.
Actually a little different than the jailer implementation I'm used to; I normally see it as preventing other incoming actions from targeting, but site meta is site meta.

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Post Post #2115  (isolation #249)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:40 pm

In post 2113, boring wrote:Scum!LUV has nothing to lose with a last-minute claim. Scum!Zoronos has no reason to counterclaim so quickly without first testing the waters. If it comes down to who I trust more, Zoronos or LUV, I'm picking Zoronos.

However, the roles are different, and serve different functions. I've only been playing mafia for 4 months. What are the chances that both are telling the truth?


I've been playing mafia for ~3 years, granted mostly not on these boards. In a game this size, as a setup designer, I would never combine Doc, Cop, and Jailer. That seems crazy to me personally. Even with two 'millers' (our ascetics) as negative utility. But that's just my instincts as a mod kicking in, and I've never modded on this site.
Which is probably best illustrated by my immediate urge to cause bullshit and yell my role. Which maybe was a poor choice on my part but oh well. People can call me bad in post game, I don't care.

btw this would be the place to follow up to my D1 spat with you on "How PR's should play" :-P

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Post Post #2116  (isolation #250)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 2:43 pm

*call bullshit

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Post Post #2119  (isolation #251)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:31 pm

Waiting to pick up my car from the shop, so let's see if I can be long form cogent on my phone.
I see roles in terms of 'slots'. A jailer stops town from dying, so does a doc. Doc is straight forward, choose player, they don't diem
If a jailer tries that, it has a drawback in that the Townie can't use their own role. But you have the option to play offense and try to jail scum to stop the NK that way. So, tradeoffs. Defense with downside or offense at low percentage.

But it's the same job as a doctor. Make scum not kill at night. So it strikes me as really unlikely the mod would put in largely redundant roles, unless scum is stacked and we have lots of negative utility.
So, unless this is multiball and the mod is taking pity on us and I hit the secondary kill, I doubt LUV's claim
I jailed penguin, in case it wasn't obvious. I was pondering jailing you but I can talk about why I didn't in post.

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Post Post #2126  (isolation #252)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:50 pm

In post 2121, nn30 wrote:
In post 2119, Zoronos wrote:So, unless this is multiball and the mod is taking pity on us and I hit the secondary kill, I doubt LUV's claim


Unpack this for me. Hit the secondary kill?


Crazy ass speculation for how this could possibly be balanced but even then it's unlikely.
2 scum teams or one team plus an SK, penguin doing the kill for second team / SK, thus hiding its existence. Wild speculation best ignored.
Hit the kill - phone shorthand for jailed the person performing the NK.

Even in multi ball I can't really see the level of protection a jailer and a doc could give being reasonable.

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Post Post #2127  (isolation #253)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:52 pm

Basically I can't think of any reason for a cop, doctor, and a jailer to all be in a mini. The power concentration for town would be off the charts.

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Post Post #2129  (isolation #254)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:03 pm

It's a dumb tangent I never should have started. Suffice that I jailed Penguin last night and in the event of my death figure shit out from there if multiple kills start showing up.

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Post Post #2134  (isolation #255)  » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:22 pm

Deal with the possibility of multiple killing factions once we observe actual multiple kills.
We have plenty of crazy on the table in front of us.
I'm not stuck on a.mobioe device for a little while long (hopefully) thanks to this mechanic being a bad.
If someone wants to offer a compelling story of why LUV is town here and not just scum that ran out a doctor claim to see what counters they'd draw, soon is the time to make that argument.

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Post Post #2139  (isolation #256)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:06 pm

I am a little astounded at how little anyone has to say, but okay.
VOTE: Little Uzi Vert

Boring, I was probably wrong about you. Oops.

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Post Post #2143  (isolation #257)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:51 pm

Sure enough that I'm willing to put aside my suspicion for your slot and vote him over my scum read on Penguin; sure enough that my first reaction to seeing his claim was to roleclaim myself.

He was scummy before the claim, and then he claimed something that I just can't fathom being in the same 13-player game with a jailer. Which likely as not was the intent - claim a protection role to gain some value for team-scum and draw out a town protection role. I don't think anyone here is about to argue the 'based solely on his posting, ignoring his role claim, LUV has played Towny' so this was his only way to gain some value.

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Post Post #2147  (isolation #258)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:07 pm

In post 2145, Gamma Emerald wrote:I'm not sold on both being town though; this is a measure to avoid screwing anything over. And I can determine which one is real even if neither dies if both pledge to use their powers on me.


You realize that as a jailer I'll roleblock you if I protect you, right?
I mean, I was going to do that anyway before LUV claimed, but c'mon now. Engage brain.

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Post Post #2150  (isolation #259)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:10 pm

also, trying to NA resolve it assumes scum have no roleblocker, strong man, or similar, which is not a great gamble to take.
LUV is the correct lynch here. If you thought he was scum before the counterclaim, then nothing has changed from prior unless you think his like 2 posts he made before disappearing oozed towniness.

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Post Post #2151  (isolation #260)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:12 pm

In post 2148, Prism wrote:On my phone and don't have time to look it up right now, but how do kills work onsite? Does only one mafia perform a kill or do a majority (ex. 2/3)? If it's the former I see 0 reason for Zoronos to jailkeep Gamma if both are real. He roleblocks the cop and prevents getting a pseudoreport of his own.

In the event LUV is real I would be shocked if Zoronos or some scum wasn't a roleblocker, doc/cop is too powerful to have no way to negate. He's not real though, so there's that.


Only one mafia kills. That's why I tried to play offense last night. I had no good read on who was a likely target for the kill, so I jailed one of my top scum reads who I thought didn't have wide suspicion on them.

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Post Post #2153  (isolation #261)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:21 pm

In post 2152, Gamma Emerald wrote:So Zoronos targeted PP and LUV targeted Dier...
@Zoronos: what were you going for?
PEdit nevermind.


>.>

Basically, I find that scum will usually *not* send their person-with-the-most-heat to do the NK, since that person is a magnet for Trackers, and if that person gets Watched doing it they have less wiggle room to pin the blame on any other incidental visitors.

At the start of the day I posted a "Here are the people that seemed to not do work last night on the lynch" list, which was basically the people I was deciding between to Jail. Between them it came down to "Boring is scummy, but if she's scum it's likely the team won't send her to do the NK because she is a high likelyhood Track" and Penguin. So I jailed Penguin.

But clearly I did not get the killer. Alas.

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Post Post #2155  (isolation #262)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:24 pm

Not at the end of the day, and definitely not compared to Boring.

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Post Post #2184  (isolation #263)  » Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:30 pm

Really, the facepalm is what sold you?

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Post Post #2208  (isolation #264)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 12:43 pm

In post 2205, nn30 wrote:So Implosion is conf town (assuming we don't have a cop giving bad results).

@Zoronos - why didn't you protect Gamma with your jailkeeper ability?


How do you know I didn't?

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Post Post #2213  (isolation #265)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:09 pm

In post 2212, Shadow_step wrote:Not sure why implosion was left out of that list.
Anyway [prism, nn30] is probably the scum team with an outside chance of Grendel.
PP is just weird.


LUV knew that Gamma wasn't lying about being town cop, so he left Implosion out because that makes Implosion conf town.

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Post Post #2214  (isolation #266)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 1:10 pm

Oh, nevermind, that's a D1 post. That's what I get for not looking at post numbers before writing.

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Post Post #2218  (isolation #267)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:03 pm

She was likely town for her near-constant pressure on LUV yesterday. I owe her an apology. The kill selection is irrelevant to her towniness.

The kill suggests that the scum have a roleblocker or a strongman (or just correctly out-meta'ed me, or are in swing for the fences YOLO mode). But I hate NK speculation, so that's as far as I'm willing to go.

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Post Post #2219  (isolation #268)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:05 pm

In post 2215, nn30 wrote:
In post 2208, Zoronos wrote:
In post 2205, nn30 wrote:So Implosion is conf town (assuming we don't have a cop giving bad results).

@Zoronos - why didn't you protect Gamma with your jailkeeper ability?


How do you know I didn't?


Well, he's dead. It's the solution Occam's razor would support.


Well, given that he actually was the cop (a conclusion I doubted more as I re-read the game during night phase), I figure the only way you would know this is if you are scum roleblocker / strongman, don't care about what I actually did, and are simply happy to go 'Oh the cop is dead blame the claimed protection role'.

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Post Post #2233  (isolation #269)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:29 pm

In post 2222, nn30 wrote:I never said anything about kill selection. Why do you bring it up here?

In post 2217, nn30 wrote:The kill also suggests that Boring is town.


Hmmmmmm.....

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Post Post #2234  (isolation #270)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:29 pm

Oh, for fuck's sake I'm like a page behind.

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Post Post #2237  (isolation #271)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:38 pm

In post 2232, boring wrote:I admit that nn30 hasn't been the greenest player lately, but the only reason I see to actually vote him right now is Dier's VCA, and while it seemed pretty well done, I can't see myself voting based on VCA alone. (and that, gentlemen, was a run-on sentence)

Now PP, you presented a compelling argument, but I find that I need more than he's scum. Are these just gut reads? Is there anything more?

@Zoronos - What are you thinking?


I am thinking a number of things.
Overnight my suspicion basically went to the people that seemed the most skeptical of LUV's fake claim (since scum know he's faking), or that were way over the top non-skeptical.
I was also looking at voting position on the wagon. I find that scum love to be on scum lynches, so I was looking for bus votes on the tail end of the wagon.

I am momentarily distracted by NN leaping to what seems to be superior knowledge about what went down at night, since blaming me for 'Why did you not jail Gamma!?!!' could easily be scum superior knowledge that a) they know they didn't roleblock me, ergo they know I didn't or b) they did roleblock me and feel like blaming me for that.

But I totally didn't jail Gamma. I figured the obvious kill was me, so I jailed offensively again since it was the only chance I felt to stop the NK. No sane scum team would go to the dome on Gamma unless they had a roleblocker or strongman (which I couldn't stop anyway), so either they had it and there's no point trying to counterplay that, or they were just going to kill me. In both cases jailing gamma just stops a clear coming back and doesn't save anyone.

Ergo, they either out-meta'ed me, or they have the roleblocker / strongman / whatever.

I also had a moment of doubt about whether he was actually cop based on some ~events~ from yesterday, but I guess that doubt got resolved.

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Post Post #2238  (isolation #272)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 2:42 pm

Also, I would recommend ignoring RVS-era votes on LUV. I find scum love to vote scumbuddies during RVS or similar.
If it never materialized into anything resembling a real train (or if it did become one and they promptly looked for reasons to hop off), in my mind it is no credit.

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Post Post #2242  (isolation #273)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:01 pm

In post 2240, boring wrote:I was expecting you to be dead today too, since going for Gamma would be a huge gamble, but here we are. I agree that it would have been unhelpful to block Gamma on his last productive night. I'm thinking that roleblocker is more likely, by the way.

Are you going to give us a comprehensive reads list and tell us who you blocked before EOD? I know it won't totally clear them as town, but it would be good info to have before you kick the bucket.


I promise I will tell you who I blocked before EoD, haha. You can maybe puzzle it out given what I've already said about my selection process, but I realize I left it somewhat vague (on purpose). I don't make a habit of holding back info.
I will get a comprehensive reads list put together tonight after work.

As a note, I will be traveling Thursday through Monday, then again Wednesday through the following Sunday, so I am probably not going to be super loud this day-phase. Or you're just going to get a lot of typo ridden phone posts.

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Post Post #2243  (isolation #274)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:03 pm

In post 2241, nn30 wrote:This is the first vote count that includes Prism voting LUV. His vote stayed there the rest of the day (even though there were a number of opportunities to hop off). Is that enough to clear Prism?


I think that's a pretty good reason to town read Prism. It's why I town read Prism.
His case on LUV was kinda dumb, IMO, but that's pretty damn early for a bus so I think it weighs heavily in favor of Prism being town.
I don't see much reason to lynch him right now. I don't make a habit of 'clearing' anyone, but I ain't voting there and I don't think anyone else should either.

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Post Post #2246  (isolation #275)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:28 pm

Why are you asking about Implosion? We have a dead cop with a clear on him. I thought all the alignment modifying roles were explicitly banned in Normal games?

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Post Post #2248  (isolation #276)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 3:38 pm

Okay...
I will hold my opinion in abeyance until I see where this line of questioning goes.

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Post Post #2255  (isolation #277)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:26 pm

VOTE: Grendel

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Post Post #2256  (isolation #278)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:00 pm

^
That's the dude I jailed. I could see him on the most possible scum teams, he didn't seem to have any skeptiscm on LUV's claim (instantly jumped to clearly scum) and his vote on LUV was in prime bussing position.

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Post Post #2258  (isolation #279)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:10 pm

I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.

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Post Post #2261  (isolation #280)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:01 pm

In post 2260, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 2258, Zoronos wrote:I mean, you could consider reading the rest of the sentence.


Lulz. I like you.

Rephrase: So, your jailing of Grendel was entirely in response to his take on LUV?


Not entirely, but it was a significant factor.
During nightphase I re-read him and LUV and I got the distinct impression they were largely ignoring eachother. I find that behavior is common amongst scum buddies (though not strictly indicating)
Furthermore, he was the primary pusher of the two non-LUV trains yesterday. Putting it all together, yeah, suspicion is high now that LUV has flipped scum.

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Post Post #2262  (isolation #281)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:10 pm

In post 2259, boring wrote:What do you think about the meta argument he made on Gamma before his claim? That was a pretty risky move for scum, don't you think? How about his reaction to Gamma's claim? Was there anything about that which seemed particularly scummy to you? Or is your read primarily based the events at the end of day 2?


I feel like I was pretty clear on the meta argument during D2. It was garbage, I told Grendel while he was still pushing Gamma. And I don't think it was risky; Meta arguments are fundamentally safe because they're nearly impossible to disprove. They're not based in the current game's events, so it's really hard to argue them one way or another.

I thought the act of pushing a case was towny (and said so at the time), because the act of pushing any case is towny. However I also made clear that I thought it was a stupid case and he should stop pushing it. But I got ignored until the cop claim, at which point he swung to suspecting me, apparently for the temerity of telling him he was wrong.

I thought his meta read was more stupid than scummy. However he's at it again (see above about asking Prism for his meta), so either he doesn't learn, or doesn't recognize that what he's doing is bad play, or is scum using it to hide.

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Post Post #2264  (isolation #282)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:57 pm

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:I find it dumb that your first response to the kill going through is "Oh, Well, Scum must have role blocking power, or a strongman kill", instead of, "the night kill went through so maybe Grendel is town".

I already went over why this is likely, and it has nothing to do with you and everything to do with the fact that it was Gamma that was killed. The short version is no sane scum team kills Gamma over me without some jail breaking ability.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:Its the equivalent of a tracker watching a suspect that didn't move at night and going into the next day with a vote on the person who didn't make the kill. What's worse is that with only two mafia left, there would have been a 50% chance that you'd block a kill. So me being 50%less likely to be scum Obviously means nothing to you. You're frosting a card board cake, you want that sweet conclusion of Grendel!scum so you stretch the ingredients you're given to meet the taste you want.

Only a fool thinks this way; absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. That I didn't get an active hit doesn't change my priors (which were that you were scum). If I went 'Well, I guess I didn't stop the kill, he must be town' I would be the worst jailkeeper player ever unless I knew there was only one scum remaining. It doesn't change the odds that you're scum at all. I scum read you, ergo I jailed you. The results of my (negative) jail have no impact on my reads. Tying those correlations together without further knowledge about how the kill happened is awful play.

Also, belaboring that point with attacks on credibility is super scummy. So.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:In short, you are setting your self up for a terribad tunnel.

Calls case tunnel. Check.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:If you don't like me you should come out and say it instead of finding excuses to sr me. :wink:

Attempts to discredit case by calling it personal rather than addressing the points. Check.

In post 2263, Grendel wrote:Meta is not garbage, and my case on Gamma was not all meta. Stop attacking my play style. Or is that just you attempting to "further a case" on me because you've literally run out of other reasons why I'm scum?
:roll:


Your case on Gamma was terrible. I told you it was bad before Gamma roleclaimed. It told you it was bad after he roleclaimed. Attacking that case is *not* attacking playstyle, it is attacking a bad case. So, yes, your meta case is garbage.

That you don't seem to take into account that your 'playstyle' (it's not a playstyle) led you actively wrong and then didn't correct that at all suggests that you either lack the ability to self-analyze, or don't care that what you're doing is leading you to case poorly. That's scummy, because the team that doesn't care if they case town are the scum.

Anyway, back to the checklist:
Reframing scum case as 'attack on playstyle (a NAI factor)' - Check.
Reframes end of post as assumption of end of case - Check.

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Post Post #2270  (isolation #283)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:30 pm

In post 2267, Prism wrote:For all the people pointing out that my reasoning on LUV was "odd" or "weak", I've had no one tell me why this is the case.
If you are one of those people, I want to know what you thought was wrong with it, because right now it's being used to discredit me without doing any actual legwork.


I think you're town so it's cool.
I thought your case was dumb because I understood it as 'you agree with me but have me null that's impossible you're parroting my read'. Which made no sense to me, but it got a scum dead so w/e.

(I am not trying to discredit you; I am either misunderstanding your case, or just think your case was specious. But I don't really care because you're in the town bucket and scum is dead)

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Post Post #2271  (isolation #284)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:35 pm

In post 2265, nn30 wrote:I'm outta the loop here. Boring mentioned it too - which makes me think I've missed something.

If not Gamma due to WIFOM arguments, why you?


Because I'm a claimed protective role?
I mean, scum NK strategy 101; If the protector claims, shoot it.
The point of fake claiming doctor is to draw actual town protection out to counterclaim it. I'm Jailer, it should be the obvious kill. That it wasn't tells me something about the scum. The only reasons that I can concoct are either:
1) They're more afraid of a cop getting an extra clear / guilty, and have a way to ignore the fact that the claimed cop is the obvious protect.
2) They have next leveled me.

But (2) is a huge gamble, and one which I would personally never take as scum without a damn good reason. Ergo I am banking on (1).

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Post Post #2272  (isolation #285)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:38 pm

In post 2266, nn30 wrote:@Grendel - please check my 1971. It's the best counter I have to the vote analysis you've put up (which looks pretty bad admittedly - if you're scum A+ for finding this little nugget).


He's using the wrong VC to do analysis on the LUV wagon. That was the VC after my counterclaim, and thus has bonus information.

The real VC to look at is this one:
In post 2079, podoboq wrote:
Official Vote Count 2.21
LynchingWith 11 votes in play, it takes 6 to lynch.

Lil Uzi Vert (5): boring, Prism, Gamma Emerald, implosion, Grendel
Penguin Power (2): Zoronos, nn30
Zoronos (1): PenguinPower
boring (1): Dierfire

Not Voting (2): Lil Uzi Vert, Shadow_step

V/LA: Grendel


Deadline: (expired on 2016-10-30 12:31:00)


That's the VC right before the claim. That's the one that can actually tell you useful information.

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Post Post #2273  (isolation #286)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 10:40 pm

In post 2266, nn30 wrote:@Town - does Grendel hopping on feel opportunistic to anyone else? Or does his case on me feel legit? Penguin don't answer - I already know what you'll say.

The only thing stopping me from voting Grendel right now is that he's my counter wagon. I don't want to hop on someone I previously town read just because he's voting me.


This is not a good argument. Don't appeal to others.
Case for thine own self.

If you thought he was town before for good reasons, convince me him's wrong. If you no longer think he's town, explain why you think he's scum.
Don't vote a town read just because they're voting you. That's scumplay.

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Post Post #2275  (isolation #287)  » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:18 pm

What makes you think Grendel is town?
I could be wrong. I've been wrong plenty this game and I'm not afraid to admit it.

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Post Post #2282  (isolation #288)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:13 am

In post 2279, nn30 wrote:@Zoro - I asked prism about implosion because I thought Gamma had the potential to give incorrect cop reads (crazy cop or w/e that role is). I now realize that doesn't make sense since we have Gamma's role now. :/

I'll give you more on Grendel tomorrow. I need to go to bed.


As I noted previously, I believe (though am not positive) that all the 'cop gives wrong results' roles are banned on this site in Normal games.
I'm not positive though. Someone with more experience on this site would have to pipe up.

(I haven't digested Dierfire or Prism's cases yet, and I'm going to sleep. I will get to that tomorrow.)
I know I promised Boring a readslist, but at the moment the short version is:
Town:
Implosion, Prism, Boring, ShadowStep

Townish:
NN30

????:
Dierfire

Scummish:
PenguinPower

Scum:
Grendel

I need to re-review Diefire, but that's on my 'to do' list for tomorrow. My gut is he belongs in the town-ish bucket.
I think I disagree with Prism's assertion that Boring felt the need to hard-bus from her situation. Certainly after the Gamma train spun up. The thing I'd look for there is if Boring was contributing suspicion to gamma without contributing a vote. I haven't gone in depth to know whether that's true or false. If she did, then maybe it was a bus. If she did not, then almost certainly town. Her behavior around the hammer is also not what I'd expect from scum - She seemed to display honest confusion about the setup meta that would lead to LUV's claim being scum. Scum (in my experience) tend to play with a lot more certainty, since, well, they know it's a fake claim.

Having exactly two scum and one ???? means probably that one of my other reads is wrong or someone is playing scum in a way that I don't expect.
Anyway. G'night folks.

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Post Post #2289  (isolation #289)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:16 am

In post 2287, boring wrote:Honestly, Penguin, your push on nn30 is part of what's making me drag my feet on him. Sure, you hammered LUV, but that was after the gambit, when it was clear he was getting lynched anyway. In fact, I'm more than a little surprised that Zoronos wasn't more suspicious of you, based on the votes, than Grendel.

First, you went after Gamma. Then, when he was revealed as cop, you went after Zoronos. LUV continued to get pressure, but you didn't vote him. I think it's very conceivable that the scum team told him to gambit to flush out any protectors. Then, when he got to L-1 again, and the gambit got its results, you hammered with little warning, to cut off further discussion.

VOTE: Penguin


Grendel over Penguin was simple; in my experience, scum love being on scum lynches.
Penguin sat off, Grendel did not.

(As noted above, I look at the pre-reveal VC, not the post-reveal)

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Post Post #2291  (isolation #290)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:27 am

In post 2290, boring wrote:p-edit: you didn't think the post-reveal had anything to offer? What's stopping PP from joining Grendel in your fully scum pile?


I talked earlier about what I feel was most instructive in the post-reveal period - Anyone that immediately slammed down 'LUV clearly scum' gained scum points in my book.
Town in that situation, in my experience, will see a moment of confusion where they weigh the claims and decide what to do. Maybe even balk a little at the prospect of lynching a doctor, because what if they're wrong.
Grendel showed no such reservation.

I think there's plenty that's instructive in the post-reveal period; just not the VC.

I'm not sure what's really stopping me from putting PP in the fully scum category. I kinda feel that LUV+Penguin+Grendel as the scum team is just a bit too easy and there must be something I'm missing. My scum case on him hasn't changed much from yesterday. I never got traction on him in the face of a scum lynch, which is really weird.

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Post Post #2311  (isolation #291)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:57 pm

A quick note while I'm packing - NN I want to respond to your big post in depth, because I disagree with some of your conclusions but the short version is this:

In post 2301, Dierfire wrote:@nn30

Regarding your read on Grendel: what do you mean by "bread crumbs" there? Most of the interactions that you have flagged as such seem to be those in which Grendel expresses mild to moderate suspicion of Lil Uzi Vert but does not vote for him. To me, it does not seem unlikely that a Mafia player would decline to defend a partner who was under suspicion but also not vote for that partner.


I find scum tend to mark their scum buddies as 'neutral' and will constantly express mild to moderate suspicion on them *while not pushing them*. That is classic distancing. "Yeah A is scummy but let's all vote B" is scum play 101. So those things you flag as 'breadcrumbs' to me are potential setups to join the bus in case LUV goes down. Which is basically what happened yesterday. Those were specifically the things that led me to conclude he might be scum with LUV.

They also will largely ignore their partners (since they don't have a motivation to 'sort' them), and as you noted there's about one Grendel post where he actively addresses LUV. And then, as you note, LUV declines to address it. That feels to me like he doesn't care about the answer or feel like he needs to address it. When I'm scum, I try to answer town questions (since town will try to kill me). I know I can safely ignore questions from my scumbros, since they usually will not try to lynch me if I don't answer / answer poorly.
Furthermore, Grendel not following up on his question being ignored indicates that he doesn't actually care about the answer.

Also, in your fifth quote you quoted the same thing twice, but said 'these three quotes'. What did you actually mean to quote there?

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Post Post #2318  (isolation #292)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 7:54 pm

In post 2312, boring wrote:p-edit: Zoronos, you crafty ninja.

I am the best ninja.
Very sneaky.
You can tell by all the posting I do.

Everyone knows ninjas post the most, that way you never suspect them of being ninjas.

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Post Post #2340  (isolation #293)  » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:29 pm

V/LA until Monday 10pm EST

I'll do my best to keep up from phone and occasional laptop, but no promises.

Quick thoughts:
-"I can't do X as scum or I'll ruin self meta" is truth telling and against site rules. Don't even try to sell me that line regardless, I've seen way too many "I'd never do X as scum" from scum players.
-Grendel's strikes me as a giant AtE and I put no stock in it one way or another.
-Grendel, if you want to convince me my read is wrong, show me a good non-meta case that's well sourced from events this game.

Other players that think Grendel is town:
Why? What am I getting wrong / missing here? Let's pow wow on this one. If I'm wrong, I want to understand where.

Prism:
My gut read has been that NN was town for a while now. I posted some reasons back on D1, but it boils down to that it looks to me like he's trying to solve the game, and that's towny.
If you want to convince me on boring, ignore the D1 stuff (I give no credit for that regardless, so you don't have to sell me on it) and convince me why she ignored Gamma in favor of LUV on D2.

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Post Post #2396  (isolation #294)  » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:46 am

In post 2384, boring wrote:Zoronos, get back here so you can talk some sense into these ninnies.


I caught up, and but am about to start drinking and playing board games.
This is the one week a year I get to be irresponsible!

What do you need from me?
I can maybe write good posts!

I maintain that I don't think Boring is the correct lynch. I felt she was very early in the day on D2 on LUV and stuck with that given available options (Gamma, Me).

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Post Post #2414  (isolation #295)  » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:41 pm

What is the rest of the case, beyond 'a bunch of town voted for her D1'?
Yeah, she had me super suspicious D2 (behind Penguin) to the point that I refused to join her train until I counterclaimed LUV, but I think I was wrong to do that.

I guess I'm missing the thrust of the case kinda other than the bussing part but maybe I'm the dumb.

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Post Post #2424  (isolation #296)  » Thu Nov 03, 2016 2:46 pm

So, something was bugging me earlier, and I want to go back to it quick.

In post 2366, nn30 wrote:If your theory is correct, this could be Boring teeing up my mislynch after Grendel flips red.


NN - If you believe this, it predicates on Grendel actually being red.
If you believe Grendel is red, and boring is using a red flip to try and mislynch you, then *Grendel is still red and should get lynched for being red*.

Here, have a 'Zor thinks you're not busing Grendel probably' certificate. You can use it to convince someone that I don't think you're busing and we shouldn't lynch you for it.

(I want to be clear; I'm not saying I think NN's scum. I don't. It's just a common mistake; going second intention when we can go direct)

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Post Post #2437  (isolation #297)  » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:31 pm

In post 2436, Shadow_step wrote:on


Let's be frank, any scum lynch will have scum on the train bussing.
The line *I* draw is "is my scum read the person leading the train". I know that's why I refused to hop on the LUV train yesterday.

Do you think Penguin is leading this train? (Let's be fair, I haven't been paying much attention the past 2 days, so I just don't know at this point.)

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Post Post #2439  (isolation #298)  » Fri Nov 04, 2016 2:38 am

That's a fair point.
But my gosh I go on vacation and nobody posts.

Also I feel maybe you're a bit overconfident here shadow. Also I'm maybe missing where all the other conf towns are coming from.

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Post Post #2440  (isolation #299)  » Fri Nov 04, 2016 4:07 am

In post 2354, nn30 wrote:1) Will you point to the LUV v. Penguin interactions that you are referring to? I have PP as my top scum read right now and, if I'm wrong, I'd like to know why.


nn, what caused you to change this read?

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Post Post #2446  (isolation #300)  » Fri Nov 04, 2016 1:24 pm

Hmmmmm...
Prism / Implosion, what is your take on Penguin?

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Post Post #2447  (isolation #301)  » Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:45 pm

Nevermind, that's a stupid question. Implied is hard town reading him.
Prism, if you want to chime in feel free.

I'm still on the lynch-grendel plane at the moment.

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Post Post #2448  (isolation #302)  » Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:56 pm

My god my phone's autocorrect is aweful.
Implosion not implied.
Plan not plane.

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Post Post #2508  (isolation #303)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:15 pm

I don't know if we're mass claiming today, I'll ponder it.
But if we're doing it it is absolutely not on a list shadowstep makes final choice on.

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Post Post #2517  (isolation #304)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:59 pm

This discussion is distracting from actually finding scum. It should stop, and likely do so now.
My scummiess meter on Shadow_step has increased markedly. The things that Implosion pointed out in are not only super aggravating, but also many of them are scum sided (specifically calling yourself conf town while not actually confirmed anything).
The summary of them all is "You are playing both anti-cooperatively, and are actively breaking down cooperation amongst other players." That's an actively pro-scum strategy.

I think at the very least you need to eat some humble pie. In the mean time, I think the rest of us should have a larger discussion on whether or not the wide town read based on D1 play is misguided / overridden by his behavior since then.

However, my best scum read remains Grendel, so I think people should either vote that way, make a case for Grendel being town, or make a more convincing argument for Beatrix being scum (because the bus vote stuff on LUV I don't find convincing, given that there were a number of opportunities for her to vote opportunistically on town targets and instead maintained her vote on a scum. So if she was busing, she was super dedicated to the bus and is probably bad for busing on D2 when she could have lynched town and then bus'ed on D3).

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Post Post #2530  (isolation #305)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:52 pm

In post 2522, Grendel wrote:Right, lets do it:
Penguin
Deirfire
Nn30
Prism
Boring
Grendel
Implosion
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
@Zoronos, I would love to hear a more developed case against me frankly.

-Optimal bussing position, not moved by LUV’s original claim
-My reaction to your vote, and the scum tells you associated with it.
-Using bad play to hide scummy intent

Is there anything else here you want to add?

@ALL

Call me egotistical, but I’d like a novel written about my escapades if I’m gonna be mislynched. Can people who are scum reading me detail why they are scum reading me currently?

Grendel's ordering putting himself at the very end of the reveal list is 100% lol worthy.

I'll post later maybe once I get to a computer and am maybe sober.
Which may be tomorrow we'll see.

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Post Post #2531  (isolation #306)  » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:53 pm

Oh god I hit quote whatever I hate editing quotes on iPad anyway.

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Post Post #2539  (isolation #307)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:09 am

Nn30 there is no way shadow is on the table today. His D1 play fits way too closely to the long surprise trap town 'gotcha!' Counterclaim. The town motivation on that line of play is pretty clear.

Pursue individuals, using what we know. Not what we speculate the entire team might be. Focus.

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Post Post #2544  (isolation #308)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 12:54 am

In post 2542, nn30 wrote:
In post 2539, Zoronos wrote:Nn30 there is no way shadow is on the table today. His D1 play fits way too closely to the long surprise trap town 'gotcha!' Counterclaim. The town motivation on that line of play is pretty clear.

Pursue individuals, using what we know. Not what we speculate the entire team might be. Focus.


The only way I'm going to be able to do this is if I ignore literally every post Shadow makes for the rest of the time he's alive.

Then you need to be a lot more freaking convincing .
He's being a jerk, fine whatever I don't even care just let him be a jerk and loop back to it tomroww after I'm dead use what I wrote earlier if you want, but right now we're longing Grendel if we're smart or we're debating boring but I thi , Grendel.

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Post Post #2593  (isolation #309)  » Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:13 pm

In post 2574, nn30 wrote:@Zoronos - You told me to focus earlier when I was attempting to suss out the entire scum team.

I'vie had a night to recover from Shadow being under my skin and I'd like to talk to you a little bit more about that.

Pre-flip associations are a huge no-no in Mafia Scum. In both this game and the other game I've completed on this site, the general consensus on them is that they're a waste of time and an easy way to fake content as scum.

The corollary to this, however, is that post-flip associations DO mean something. We have Maria, Eager, Gamma, and LUV right now as post-flips.

The reason I have a headache right now trying to figure out where to plant my vote is that by choosing a single person among those I find scummy (Penguin / Boring / Grendel / Shadow / Diefire*) means their actions towards the rest of the town, their interactions with LUV, and their interactions with one another in response to pressure should be taken into account. Whoever we decide to lynch today needs to make sense within these interactions. To ignore them would be to ignore important clues.

*Diefire is here because I don't have a reason to town read him.

umm... okay?
I'm not sure what question you're asking me here.
I agree, use what you know about the scum that have flipped. Be clear about it when you use that kind of thing and explain your thinking when you do so. But yeah, totally legit to use flipped scum.

So, what about Shadow or whomever did you want to talk to me about?
I'm having a little bit of trouble parsing out what this post is saying beyond "I'm not sure what to do here". Which is totally fine, but let's figure it out.

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Post Post #2660  (isolation #310)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:53 pm

I just got home:
1) Breadcrumbs are dumb. I don't understand why people do them, and I further don't understand why anyone believes them. As the NN30 / Penguin interaction showed, that crumb would never have been found without it being pointed out, which makes it intrinsically useless since anyone could leave any number of similarly un-findable crumbs, and then point back to any arbitrary claim.
PP gets believed if he plays towny and gets lynched if he doesn't, that simple. We'll see what he comes up with ~tomorrow~. He's not being lynched today though.

2) We're still lynching Grendel. Choo choo all aboard.
Actually I want to re-read and think a bit but I'm reasonably confident this is still the right answer.

3) I don't actually have a (3) but I like lists with three things in them.

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Post Post #2662  (isolation #311)  » Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:10 pm

In post 2661, implosion wrote:You're right in the sense that this does make them theoretically useless. You're wrong in that in practice no one does this. No one is saying a breadcrumb should be a be-all end-all. But empirically I don't think I've ever seen a scum player breadcrumb multiple things.


I have seen scum do this.
Maybe nobody on *this* board does it (or nobody you've seen), but I absolutely guarantee it happens and is very easy to do.

So. Practice reasonable skepticism and play the game in front of us.

------------------
If you want me to even begin to agree with a Boring lynch, you should explain to me why in the presence of multiple 'easy' trains yesterday, she stayed locked on LUV.

She played anti-opportunistically. Why do that as scum and instead sit locked on for an unnecessary D2 bus?

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Post Post #2675  (isolation #312)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:17 am

In post 2669, implosion wrote:Again, the breadcrumb is just one of many reasons I think he's town. Frankly it's the weakest. The combination of setup spec and my pre-existing townread on him is enough for me to write him off completely even if I ignore the crumb. And again, I don't think pp is experienced enough as scum to fake a crumb and a reaction in the way he did immediately after seeing the cop claim. But again. Beside the point.


Yeah, that's fine.
Breadcrumbing (and people's reaction to it) is just one of those things that annoy me in mafia games. I agree that it is beside the point. We can debate the relative merits of breadcrumbing in postgame.

I further agree that PP is definitely not today's lynch, as I said earlier.

In post 2669, implosion wrote:Because she'll look scummy if LUV winds up flipping scum later. It's not complicated. With LUV very likely to die before endgame, it's smart play from boring-scum to keep pushing him because it gives her more towncred from his flip. It doesn't matter to her if she's scum whether LUV dies on d2 or later on, but, again, based on his play, he was very likely to die before endgame. And I'll quote boring again on this...


I don't think I agree with this.
Sure, LUV was likely to die before endgame. He was a lurker that had basically no content.
I disagree that it was smart play to push him *when she pushed him*. He could have easily floated another day before she had to leverage the bus play for town cred. She wasn't on the menu D2; she didn't need the extra time that a bus would buy. I could see it D3 or D4, but D2 it just seems... I don't know, excessive? Just seemed unnecessary at that juncture, unless boring was massively overestimating the amount of heat on her.
I understand the value of mixed play; but pushing a team mate off the boat when there's no immediate threat just seems dumb. And so far Boring hasn't struck me as a dumb player.

That said, I did not expect boring's VT claim. I had a back of the head 'tracker' read on her from how the LUV lynch went down. She was full bore on him all day and in hindsight during N2 I thought that was a PR result. Oh well.

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Post Post #2688  (isolation #313)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:29 pm

In post 2687, nn30 wrote:This is another good wrinkle to consider. I'd like to hear more people's thoughts on it, especially Zoronos.


I can see at least five potential lines of play from it.
1) DF is scum and was afraid of Maria. (Maria's last will was that she was going to tunnel DF into the ground if Eager flipped town).
2) Scum believed that the reason Maria was playing very 'head down' during the day phase was because she was a PR. Maria specifically said she didn't like revealing her thinking. Scum may have intuited that as a PR soft and shot her as a result.
3) Scum believed that they could push narrative after the flip based on Maria's reads.
4) Almost nobody was voicing suspicion of Maria at the end of D1, so scum have may shot her because they realized it was going to be really hard to mislynch her later in the game and wanted to clear out a nearly-conf-town player.
5) She mentioned in that she wanted to lynch LUV. She might have been killed to distract from a potential LUV train. Goon or not, scum need bodies to win, so killing someone that scum reads a weaker member of the scum team is a good kill. This same logic could apply to Boring, but we know LUV is scum at this point. Maybe Maria had both right, but we know she had LUV right ergo 'remove a person correctly scum reading LUV' goes on the list.

Basically, imo, there's not enough definitive information here to do effective NK spec. The competing theories all depend on knowing the scum mindset however, which is inherently hidden.

Reading and understanding Maria's thoughts is good, because we know they come from an honest place. But trying to fit in a rubric of scum NK thinking is, imo, a mistake.

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Post Post #2705  (isolation #314)  » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:12 pm

Shadowstep and Dier over Grendel?

I am going to speculate that this means you think Grendel is town?

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Post Post #2746  (isolation #315)  » Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:49 pm

Hi we're murdering Dierfire or Grendel.
Preferably Grendel.

Shadow_step is aggravating, annoying, and generally useless as shit, but he's not on the plate today. We all know your point on him, save it for tomorrow or later.
Getting into this shit with him is helping nobody. Yes, he's belligerent and unhelpful. The rest of us know those are scum tells. He's still likely town for the movement, so let us collectively move on.

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Post Post #2796  (isolation #316)  » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:57 pm

Just got done driving a relatively long drive.

'Flips Red' is actually not the primary thing to be tracking. It's flips Red *and strongman / roleblocker / other jail avoider*.
If a scum goon flips, we have to assume the remaining scum has an available mechanism to dodge jails (because they went to the dome on Gamma as opposed to killing me first). Ergo, the clear could easily be a false-clear if it's an unlimited (or 2-shot) Strongman or a roleblocker that can both block and kill. We have to know that the scum's ability to defeat the offensive jail is offline before we make use of the jail as a cop clear.

tl;dr stop being bad.

I'll ponder my appropriate contingencies in a bit.
I still believe that Grendel is by far the best lynch today.
<have some more posts I want to respond to, please wait before lolhammering>

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Post Post #2797  (isolation #317)  » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:58 pm

In post 2794, nn30 wrote:@Implosion - In your experience, how often do scum play the 'here's what I think you should do when I flip town' card.


Slightly less frequently than town, but not by a statistically significant margin. It is not a tell either way.

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Post Post #2798  (isolation #318)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:01 am

In post 2769, nn30 wrote:
Confirming what we think we know would be a good start. So, Zoronos would be a good idea - though you're risking scum killing Zoro and you getting nothing useful here.

Same logic goes for shadow - though if he is ascetic, we still won't know his alignment. In a world where I could guarantee my investigation working, I'd go for Zoro over Shadow since it's more likely to turn up something useful.


I want to call these really bad suggestions and suggest that my town read on NN wavered slightly for it. But that might be overreaction on my part because I'm tired and grumpy from driving 9 hours.
Both of these feel like "Target useless people!" but I can see a reason to target Shadow (test the ascetic claim) and me (paranoia. We used to refer to it as 'Zoronoia' on my old forum, given how often it happened). So maybe I'm being a little overly harsh.
Noting for future reference.

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Post Post #2799  (isolation #319)  » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:06 am

In post 2757, boring wrote:As I've said before, I'm willing to vote Dierfire if we can't lynch Shadow today. If you're willing to vote Dierfire too, then I guess we'll have our five.


I would much rather lynch Grendel.
Dierfire feels much more of a PoE lynch to me. Grendel I have actual scum vibes from.

I've mentally broken it down thusly:
Grendel - actively scummy. Used NAI information repeatedly to build his cases, persisted bad cases even when warned off them, associatives with LUV look like partner-play (see: asking questions without concern for followup, largely ignoring him), vote position seems to more likely than not indicate a bus as does his certainty that LUV's doctor claim was fake.
NN30 - Had a lean town on him since D1. A bit... off kilter in terms of play skill, but seems to be trying to sort. Some of his posting has been O.o but a lot of that could be 'new and enthusiastic' rather than scum. I am not liable to go this way without significant convincing.
Boring - I maintain that her persistence on LUV on D2 over easier targets, especially once she decided to go from scum reading me to trying to work with me, even given my antagonistic stance throughout late D1 / all of D2, suggests town. Not liable to lynch.
Dierfire - Not much of a read at all. But the only person left in the bucket so "shoulder shrug I guess", which is not a great case for lynching someone in my mind. I want to be enthusiastic about going for the shoulder shrug lynch; I don't like it. But it's where we are and I'm not about to vote a town read. So.

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Post Post #2837  (isolation #320)  » Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:44 am

Mobile post.
If Grendel flips Red and a blocking / evading role i'm jailing DF.

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Post Post #2861  (isolation #321)  » Sun Nov 13, 2016 9:34 pm

I'm in the middle of a ten hour drive home, but I jailed NN because I was suspicious I had a completely wrong read on the game after Grendel flipped green.
Obviously that did nothing useful.

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Post Post #2863  (isolation #322)  » Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:51 pm

I was out of town and just said 'fuck it maybe everything i think I know about is wrong, and if NN is scum the scum team would never expect me to jail him since I town read him, ergo if he's scum he's likely the one running the NK.'

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Post Post #2918  (isolation #323)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:02 pm

I feel like something I think I know must be wrong. More specifically, someone I think is town must be scum, which suggests I need to rethink most of the game state.
I have DF still hovering in my ??? Bucket, but everyone else is in some version of my town list, and that's just not possible.
The end of day swap to Grendel from DF, followed by him flipping green feels like it should be telling me something specific, but I think I need to reread that segment before I jump to conclusions off of it?

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Post Post #2919  (isolation #324)  » Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:02 pm

Damn iPad. That shouldn't have been a question.

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Post Post #2926  (isolation #325)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:35 pm

Implosion - Do you see Boring / DF as the team, or is it boring / NN in your estimation?

Basically, you're already telling me one of my town reads is wrong. Are you saying both of them are wrong?

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Post Post #2930  (isolation #326)  » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:59 pm

The only way Prism is scum is if he jumped out massively in front of the LUV bus. I rate that as 'very unlikely'. I mean, it is technically possible, but it's not something I'm actively considering.
Then again, that's basically my reasoning for Boring being town, so.

That said, I think Prism's play outside of the LUV train was also townier than average, so, I am very not inclined to go that route. Lynching Prism is a bad plan, imo.
I'm not sure why I'm wasiting words on this.
w/e.

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Post Post #2960  (isolation #327)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:33 am

Sorry, I'm just not sure what to think from this seat.
PoE says either
a) It's Boring + DF, but I'm not super enthused about that specific combination.
or
b) my town read on NN is wrong
or
c) Something really whacky happened with the LUV bus re: Pristm.

In approximately that order of likelyhood, from most to least. But all those strike me as fundamentally off. I'm trying to decide if I rate (b) as more likely than (a), and if so, does that leave boring town with a NN+DF scum team.

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Post Post #2978  (isolation #328)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 11:59 am

In post 2969, nn30 wrote:
In post 2960, Zoronos wrote:In approximately that order of likelyhood, from most to least. But all those strike me as fundamentally off. I'm trying to decide if I rate (b) as more likely than (a), and if so, does that leave boring town with a NN+DF scum team.


Would you agree that if Boring flips scum, my chances of being scum go way down (given that you jailed me last night and a kill still occurred)?


My reasoning for jailing you was that in most of the scum teams that existed in my head, you were higher on my towny list than most, ergo were more likely to do the kill.
However, Boring was also on my towny list, so the specific NN+Boring team is one where the logic of 'NN probably did the kill if he was scum, and I jailed him and the kill happened anyway, ergo not scum' doesn't hold. Since the logic is contingent on you being higher on the 'Zor's town reads' chart, and boring was on that chart as well.

If DF flipped scum, I would agree with the statement. If boring does, I would consider if to not change my priors. However my prior was already that you were town-ish so that's not saying a ton.
Though I must confront that at least one of my town reads is wrong, since PoE demands it unless for some crazy reason there are only 2 scum.

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Post Post #2980  (isolation #329)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:35 pm

When I play mafia, I make a habit of entirely ignoring probabilistics that require the assumption of hidden setup information. Specifically, night information; night information is the domain of the scum team.

The entire point of the game is information disparity; the scum know already which setup we are in. Trying to bucket the setup itself based on something I fundamentally don't know is to cast dice and hope on a setup-meta-level. I prefer to simply acknowledge it is currently unknowable. If the game enters into a state where that information *is* knowable, then people should go back and fill in the gaps of what I've written / done and come to useful conclusions from it.

Until then, I don't make a habit of gambling with the setup. I have watched Towns lose too many games to "The mod would never...."

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Post Post #2983  (isolation #330)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:03 pm

In post 2981, nn30 wrote:@Zoro - I believe I haven't asked you this. In my hypothetical world where Boring/Dier are next, who do you advocate for next?


I feel like I addressed this about two posts up from the question.
I don't know, and frankly I feel uncomfortable giving a pre-flip associative, especially when that pre-flip associative necessarily fires into my town reads.

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Post Post #2986  (isolation #331)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:12 pm

In post 2984, nn30 wrote:There's nothing that says you could change that feeling tomorrow after Boring's flip.

I just want the fullest picture of everyone's current feelings I can get. You must have some inkling other than 'idk man.'


I've made it pretty clear that my best read in the current situation is DF.
But you posed the question of "What if DF is town and Boring" which basically is "If all your reads are wrong, then what?". To which my response must be "Well, if all my reads are wrong, I don't know what to think, since we're pre-supposing all my reads are wrong."

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Post Post #2987  (isolation #332)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:12 pm

*and Boring is scum

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Post Post #2989  (isolation #333)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:22 pm

...
I don't even understand your question at this point. Or maybe you don't understand your question.

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Post Post #2991  (isolation #334)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:31 pm

That's a dumb question, and I answered it already.

I don't know.
If we're explicitly talking about a world where *I'm actively wrong*, doing pre-flip associatives off the premise that I'm wrong means my associatives are *probably also wrong*.
Setting up contingent lynches in that scenario would be terrible and the height of foolishness on my part. Having a lynch not flip the way I think it will should be an inspiration to rethink, not to double down on predictions.

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Post Post #2999  (isolation #335)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:16 pm

*sigh*
I should learn to ignore dumb questions. If you have a question about my actual scum reads, feel free to pose it.

-----------------------
To Implosion et al:
If Boring flips vanilla scum, I can see two ways forward.
1) My original read is correct and DF is the second scum. If boring is vanilla scum it probably doesn't matter anyway since I'll get blocked there and there will be a false "clear" on DF which means whatever tack I take here is meaningless.
2) NN is scum and is trying to bait the jail by attacking me, knowing that he's Strongman (or a roleblocker with priority), and is hoping to get me to declare him my target so he can claim a clear tomorrow.
Basically - If I die tonight, and boring doesn't flip a blocking role, ignore whatever results from my jail. Until we get more setup info from scum flips, using my results-so-far for clears is a bad plan.

If boring flips anything w/ JK evasion:
An hour ago I'd have said that I'm sticking with my gut and jailing DF. NN's nonsense posting here makes me want to just call him scum and jail him, but that's likely my frustration / perception of his shortsightedness. And playing off frustration isn't a long term good so. It also undermines the possible scenario where he's explicitly trying to bait out the jail, since that relies on boring being a goon, which decreases the scum motivation for the play.
So, boring flipping something that would prevent JK'ing strongly indicates a DF jail is the best plan, imo.

If boring flips town:
I was right, but saying 'I told you so' seems a bit inappropriate given the track record so far. I'll probably just yolo jail and hope to get lucky.


--------------
Thoughts on others:
I still rate ShadowStep as unlikely to be scum. It would take a lot of premeditation to run his D1 play. I've seen the 'anti charistmatic' scum line run before, but not in the direct insult case, only in the 'insult accusers' case. It doesn't match SS's behavior here I feel.
Prism has brownie points galore for the LUV lynch. I don't feel he's a smart lynch.
Implosion - Definitely scum we should totally lynch him.

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Post Post #3000  (isolation #336)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:17 pm

In post 2997, nn30 wrote:40 minutes later - no response from Zoro.

Talking to Boring in day chat and coming up with a plan are we?

In post 2998, nn30 wrote:Funny timing on him no longer replying too. Pretty snappy conversation up until I accused him of being scum.


There's this magic thing called 'Work' where I can't spam reply all day in sequence.
Also facepalming at your nonsense questioning.

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Post Post #3014  (isolation #337)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 4:58 pm

Yeah.... not touching this one with a 10 foot pole.
Setup speculation no thanks.

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Post Post #3016  (isolation #338)  » Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:11 pm

Cool sounds good.

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Post Post #3034  (isolation #339)  » Thu Nov 17, 2016 12:59 am

In post 3033, implosion wrote:I really have no new thoughts. Zoronos *is not* scum. Setup makes that evident. He's going to die tonight anyway so it's a moot point.

I'm gonna hammer once prism posts whatever prism is posting if i'm online.


I asked a half question to you last night, not surprised that it got missed since I phrased it poorly, but I'm curious for your perspective at the moment.
I'm struggling because I'm sitting here looking at one PoE read, and a 'Something in my town pile is wrong'.
Is my PoE also garbage, or did I get two town calls wrong? (looking for opinion and thoughts)

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Post Post #3038  (isolation #340)  » Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:33 am

I assume that's hammer?
Well, if I ~mysteriously die~ overnight, my primary suspicion is DF.
Regardless of NN's sudden push tonight, I think DF is the more likely scum just from a a 'effort expended' perspective, so if I fail to block the kill and die, that's my next thought. I don't feel great about what happens if that's wrong though. Too many 'what if' scenarios at this point.
GL!

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Post Post #3039  (isolation #341)  » Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:48 am

My main worry is that I went into this segment of the game town reading Boring for her push on LUV, and for playing anti-opportunistically. Normally I use those as indicators of town play.
If she flips scum, that means my other town reads are similarly suspect, and that's more than a little worrying.
I guess you guys are giving less town cred for the LUV train than I was, so may it matters less overall and you're not going to fall into the trap.

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Post Post #3041  (isolation #342)  » Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:49 am

I went through my jail thought process earlier. As much as emotional response wants to sway me the logic chain I posted earlier is, I believe, sound. I intend to follow it.

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