ROLE MADNESS: Dead Thread

[mhsmith0]

A50 should have been blue shot last night. Just mechanically obvious.

[mhsmith0]

Multi ball, no cross killing and few kill overlaps or protects, especially early. Plus a lot of vig misses, and normally by now the sk would have had decent odds of eating a lynch.

[mhsmith0]

Also, don't forget that most of towns lynches have been result of investigative results, whitch town got in spades.

[mhsmith0]

Sk killed Klingon.

Any particular reason why?

Mason I think. Sk diary not super long as this point.

[mhsmith0]

Actually...

Spoiler:

The only other people I would shoot really are Shaziro, Rach, and boem. Boem is a watcher so not a threat to me. Shaziro and ira may go at it. Rach is set on lynching Creature.

[mhsmith0]

If you want a REALLY fun way to use a guilty (or a "guilty") see
Http://mafiauniverse.com/forums/threads ... ghts-Phish where i pwnd phighter and his buddy with a d2 fake guilty while the real cop had a real guilty on phighter as well, and ate a n2 bullet as well.

[mhsmith0]

actually I have supported a 5/5/1 with an SK but we also have several x shot peeps, and its more likely a town vig instead of an SK

Well you are derp town so its understandable but 32 town and one of those being a vig seems so town sided. Even as the townVi

I can assure you that this is not the setup since mafia would have almost zero chance in said setup.

Ding ding ding we have a winner (also a winner is the reviewer )

[mhsmith0]

People are going to feel bad when a faction gets eliminated and we publicly announce it like we said we were going to.

[mhsmith0]

Ira is blue trying to get boem dead. It's not gonna work, red is still hanging out doing nothing at night.

[mhsmith0]

Oh and red getting shot by sk

[mhsmith0]

Is the SK really killing my last red buddy? If so, that's a goddamned tragedy. Town's done such a good job assuming that I was the final red, too

Attacking the sk without successfully lynching her is not +EV if you're last goon unfortunately.

[mhsmith0]

Yes will throw for a loop. Of course, vig could see Ira scum claim and REALLY make it a night to remember.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

If the kills are well coordinated, town will lose majority tomorrow.

They won't be and town won't lose majority just yet. Last red will wait and do nothing, and will get shot by sk. Not sure if blues kill will go through or not just yet.

[mhsmith0]

Dunno and dunno. Not everyone has checked in. Blues and three villagers yet to make a decision and/or announce speed deadline consent.

[mhsmith0]

Then the last reddoesn't die, and whoever blues shoot dies instead. I'd be surprised if this happens but it's not impossible.

[mhsmith0]

Beats me, just helping to run the 42p role madness was a lot!

I will say that my next project is designing a new open format, see
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=115&t=68368
And maybe at some point running it (I actually played two fold c9++ on MU, and while I like the idea of it, I think the way it went down was super swingy and dependent on cross-kills instead of scum-hunting and fitting in).

I'm also queueing to run a large normal, but large in the ~15-20 player sense, not crazy high or anything.

Maybe I'll be up for running a ridiculously large theme at some point, but baby steps first. Reasonably balancing this and taking over when needed was a good step forward for me IMO.

[mhsmith0]

ALMOST everyone consented to speed deadlines. One tiwnie and the whole blue faction haven't responded in that note. Current results would be a town, a blue and a red dying, Boem being the town. And it's NOT Ira getting vigged but a different blue. Blue team should be crippled enough to follow in red footsteps pretty soon, and then it's just town vs sk. Despite questionable recent lynches and questionable vig shots and little cross-killing, town is STILL in strong position to win. Unless they mislynch on day 9 despite iras explicit scum claim. Of course if they do that they probably deserve to lose.

[mhsmith0]

Town still has nurse and a mason and a living JOAT with remaining powers that I don't recall. Extraordinarily good night for town.

[mhsmith0]

ira should get speedlynched tomorrow tho, like, obviously

Yep. Surprising he wasn't vigged tbh.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah blues know the doc or at least should. Could have just shot doc and not scum claimed. Lol wolves.

[mhsmith0]

He better do it quick though

[mhsmith0]

1/2 correct.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah that was kinda funny to watch knowing both your targets were scum.

[mhsmith0]

Lesson: Don't make both scum teams have roles that match in a closed role madness multiball.

^ part of why I turned it from 32/5/5 to 29/6/6/1

[mhsmith0]

Even at 29/6/6/1 it was probably too town sided. Was worried about it but I'd already made a BIG swing to balance, was nervous about going much further.

[mhsmith0]

Part of the issue was both teams role blockers got caught doing scummy stuff n1. And part was no one really deep wolfed; I don't think any anti-town was able to hold onto a strong town read for very long.

[mhsmith0]

U mean of main thread or dead chat?

[mhsmith0]

Varsoon and shaziro so far, but shaziro getting doc'd. Other orders not yet in.

[mhsmith0]

two town deaths coming tonight barring last minute change of orders

[mhsmith0]

Please welcome varsoon and shaziro!

Ps at this point I think it's ok to spoil, just keep spoiled stuff under tags

Spoiler:

Lapsa blue Mafia
Elyse sk
A50 nurse (backup doc)
Math blade macho
Narna deputy (named townie, but there was no actual cop)
Rach Mason
PV vig

[mhsmith0]

The nurse doc'd shaziro, sk and blue Mafia shot there overriding doc protect.

[mhsmith0]

Well not entirely. Double kill, doc protect etc could all play. Plus, if it goes to 2v2, they could lynch the sk and vig hits scum for a crazy comeback win. But essentially if town mislynches here they're going to lose with pretty high likelihood.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw this is also now too late to effectively mass claim since there's no way to verify anything with all investigatives dead.

[mhsmith0]

I suspect you're right. But this game has moved in surprising directions before.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah. I'd agree that even w the changes it was too town sided, but I dont think it was grossly unreasonable, or a reason to think the next one will be unbalanced. I'd also say scum teams got unlucky w role blockers getting outed early, though on balance I think they avoided x-kills and got lucky w vig shots so outcome was more structural than luck driven. I think both scum teams needed more power than they got. I'll remember that if ever I review another of these.

[mhsmith0]

Role madness large is ok but scum roles need to be good too. Like each team getting a godfather instead of goon, and then each team getting a joat ninja/strongman/bus driver instead of 3-shot follower or voyeur. I thought scum roles were under powered and tried to make it up w numbers but didn't go far enough unfortunately.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah

Oh well her surviving this long was still really good. Game was really not designed to make it at all easy for sk.

[mhsmith0]

From wiki page

A Doctor is a role that targets a player at Night to protect that player from a single kill made during that Night. They are not told if their protection was successful. Protection from a single kill means that if multiple players try to kill someone, they will not be saved by one Doctor's protection.

Night actions resolved correctly and normally. A50 is making an incorrect assumption.

[mhsmith0]

I remember in mass effect after I was shot and they were like "let's start lynching humans" and I was like

[mhsmith0]

I did nothing this game except provide vote counts and flips and the like

[mhsmith0]

Oh and snarky dead chat commentary, I did that too

[mhsmith0]

If they lynch Pv and tomorrow is 2/1/1 then town can't win and it's just kingmaker, and I may just call it for the sk right there. Would like feedback on that possibility before it happens tho.

[mhsmith0]

The other possibility is I straight up offer them both a draw before I unlock thread.

[mhsmith0]

Except here the sk has full bulletproof, CANNOT die at night. Therefore she can only be lynched, and that just gives game to blue scum. So if it reaches 2/1/1, town is eliminated because they cannot win. It's either blue/sk draw or outright sk win. Need to think on which is appropriate. Though that's ONLY if it hits 2/1/1; 3/1/1 is winnable for town still.

[mhsmith0]

True, otoh kingmaker is such garbage.

[mhsmith0]

Lol would be funny

[mhsmith0]

Yes and yes.

[mhsmith0]

Pretty much

[mhsmith0]

Two l-1 wagons and town wins if they lynch lapsa and loses if they lynch pv. Literally if elyse logs on she can basically eliminate town.

[mhsmith0]

Oof. There's a time to scum hammer and this is it. Oh well.

[mhsmith0]

I'll give like a 30 min twilight then lock. Town nearly eliminated.

[mhsmith0]

Elyse is debating a no kill. Town isn't quite dead yet.

[mhsmith0]

Unknown at this time. A50 makes sense but well see I guess.

[mhsmith0]

Elyse changed mind, hasn't officially submitted but will likely kill math. Blue is tbd; if blue shoots a50 town loses.

[mhsmith0]

There have been a number of villagers who had unfortunate games. I don't think I'd really single out any one person in particular.

[mhsmith0]

Please welcome peregrineV!

[mhsmith0]

Speed deadlines ftw

[mhsmith0]

Basically towns about to lose.

[mhsmith0]

current orders:

elyse kills mathlade
lapsa kills A50

which would leave
town: narna, rachmarie
blue scum: lapsa
sk: elyse

If this happens, I think it's fairest to offer elyse a 2-way draw or the chance to play it out. If people object to that, I can see if they'll just play it out, but at this point (barring a change in night actions) town has been eliminated and cannot win barring lapsa or elyse randomly no killing night 11.

[mhsmith0]

let's see...

Blue: Win condition: You win when all enemy anti-Town factions are dead, and your numbers equal or exceed that of the Town's.

SK: Win condition: You win when all enemy anti-Town factions are dead, and your numbers equal or exceed that of the Town's.

So basically neither is guaranteed a win, but they collectively are guaranteed a win. It's a question of whether the SK is lynched (and blue wins) or anyone else is lynched (SK wins). Theoretically they could no lynch and SK could kill Lapsa, but she'd clearly kill Rach in that case and not even worry about whether it's Narna or Lapsa.

[mhsmith0]

i guess. it just seems so silly to have a kingmaker, though I guess that's the nature of multiball...

[mhsmith0]

yeah thats why I was thinking I'd offer a 2-way blue/sk draw to sk. but i'm ok with letting it roll. 2 players haven't ok'd speed deadlines, including 1 actively asking for more time. so likely no flips tonight.

[mhsmith0]

lapsa just concluded A50 lied about doc'ing shaziro instead of just thinking that he was in fact correct about doc'ing, and the doc got overridden *somehow*. lapsa might actually no kill. the plot thickens...

[mhsmith0]

Lapsa just switched to rach who a50 was protecting. Waiting on one other to give consent for night end This game...

[mhsmith0]

New title: wakes derp madness

[mhsmith0]

Lynch a50 he has to be the bp investigative immune sk, why would he still be alive otherwise...

[mhsmith0]

Welcome math blade!

[mhsmith0]

Lol lapsa should have just claimed narna tracked to math. elyse will lose and then lapsa will be exposed as liar when she flips ninja

[mhsmith0]

Also claimed voyeur but with watcher results lolololol

[mhsmith0]

Lapsa thinks sk is narna...

[mhsmith0]

Mechanically there's zero reason NOT to lynch lapsa a and hope it ends the game then and there...

[mhsmith0]

i think it has paid off to keep a50 alive - he's bold enough to hunt SK. opens chance for me to squeeze in

Conf!bias and wishful thinking: not just for villagers anymore

[mhsmith0]

I agree. SK was a role intended to get lynched relatively quickly but cut down the # players given the ridiculous amount of town power in this game. Making it this long is GOAT even if town derp was a lot of why she was able to last.

[mhsmith0]

And her losing the LOCKED draw just because Lapsa screwed up the NK was just rough to see as a mod.

[mhsmith0]

also thor getting NK'd just because he happened to be pushing the SK while trying to keep under the radar was pretty unfortunate too

[mhsmith0]

WHY DIDN'T THEY KILL ALMOST WTFFFFFF

QFT

[mhsmith0]

She had full bp. Red should have offed rach at least. But it's understandable why Thor didn't.

[mhsmith0]

considering that elyse didn't even visit rach, i have no clue if that's a slip or not

I'd say no because the accusation is sk with sk being ninja being a sort of known thing. Not really a slip.

[mhsmith0]

Like 3 in a row I think? Basically when Thor was last red.

[mhsmith0]

God that would be so sad. To go from a locked draw at worst to a loss because of a bad blue night kill. Brutal.

[mhsmith0]

The relevant point is elude would have shot each the PREVIOUS night as strongman.

[mhsmith0]

The problem is the only logical shot there was almost, so it's super plausible Lapsa shot almost and was openly sucking up to the sk for the draw. It's a reasonable description of the situation, just wrong since Lapsa simply made a bad shot on each.

[mhsmith0]

Sure. The operational question is if backup vig inherits the 2-shot or only the primary. But I don't see a fundamental issue w it. Ditto the idea of a backup cop without a regular cop (wake and I disagreed about whether backup inherited vanilla or other cop, but town had enough power I didn't mind making it a named townie).

[mhsmith0]

Beating transcend: so much fun giga is even willing to lose to do it

[mhsmith0]

This whole game has been... strange, in a number of ways.

[mhsmith0]

what if the mods are trolling and Rach was the SK all along

What if the MOD was the SK?

[mhsmith0]

You guys are gonna be so pissed when a50 flips jester with odd night kill

[mhsmith0]

Ugh the game has totally ground to a halt

[mhsmith0]

I just had a game I modded start and finish while Day 12 was ongoing

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=68495

[mhsmith0]

Yeah that game was fun to watch.

[mhsmith0]

I'm just happy I'm down from three modding games, that was a bit too much. Especially with a mini normal in the queue and a large normal that will go in the queue after this ends lol.

[mhsmith0]

They may well no lynch. If they do I'll offer a draw, no real sense in extending a stalemate.

[mhsmith0]

She can keep shooting rach with a50 protecting. I didn't force Thor to kill when he didn't want to, I don't think it's fair to apply a different standard here.

[mhsmith0]

I think she recently also won ANOTHER large theme game as the sole SK too.
Yep, this one http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=65280
Serial Killer of the Year I'd say even if she ends up getting lynched here. An amazing SK run IMO. All the more so since this setup was absolutely BRUTAL on the SK mechanics-wise; ascetic ninja bulletproof is a garbage set of powers given how much town investigative/clearing and scum communication/cooperation abilities there were out there. Kill too many scum and town can roll, kill too many town and the scum can potentially chop the board and gang up on you with numbers.

[mhsmith0]

A50 docs rach, Elyse kills Rach, stalemate continues.

[mhsmith0]

only narna is due a prod, it's 72 hours not 48.

[mhsmith0]

Rocks fall, everyone dies, mod wins alone

[mhsmith0]

No real point, just goes to night and effectively no actions. If deadline missed I'll float a draw idea see what happens.

[mhsmith0]

[mhsmith0]

Draw has been proposed. If unanimous it passes. If 2/3 town an 1/1 sk say yes, it passes. Basically it needs majority of each faction.

[mhsmith0]

Yep. But drawing out for another month of no lynch / no kill would be even worse.

[mhsmith0]

Yes. Any factions eliminated still lose. It's a draw among factions still eligible to potentially win.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW A50 basically game-solved from the fundamentally flawed premise that SK was strongman (though frankly for game balance she should have been), based on a misunderstanding of how the doctor role works. And now that he's convinced SK was strongman, it becomes conceptually less likely it was Elyse, because she'd probably have just killed Rach (though no killing is hardly sub-optimal as a WIFOM play).

There's also the question of which of the three claims is most likely to be BS, which is slightly indicative on Elyse, but frankly A50's doc claim was never confirmed (and if he's BP, at that point it's not unreasonable to just roll with the claim and let the scum figure it out by him not dying at night), and Narna's claim is super easy to fake as well (one of the very few roles that is debatably negative value, since it can confuse town into thinking it's a BS role, even if it was accidental that it worked out that way [I'd figured that backup cop meant she'd get backup vanilla cop or neapolitan or whatever... full alignment cop was never something i considered acceptable in this setup barring multiple GF type roles, which didn't exist... Wake interpreted the setup as meaning that backup cop couldn't get anything without an alignment cop, and given the large amount of town power already on the board I consented] ).

PS One piece of evidence that no one has really considered is that Lapsa's final shot was super likely to be on A50, the doc claim. Throw in Lapsa's final day, and it's reasonably likely that his approach was to try and swing the lynch onto anyone other than the SK he shot, which would then create a potential 3P LYLO draw with the SK or maybe a weird final day where he just was able to figure out a way to lynch the SK at that point. Lapsa's enthusiasm for lynching Elyse was odd in a world where he knew she was the SK (he'd always be the F3 lynch if the SK was lynched first), but makes a LOT of sense in a world where he knew A50 was the SK. Of course what actually happened was that he blew the kill, but the people in the game don't know that.

[mhsmith0]

This is true (Thor opted not to kill multiple nights as well), but in this case Elyse is shooting Rach who is getting doc'd. There's no rule provision for a stalemate situation.

[mhsmith0]

She has submitted every night. My understanding is she didn't have to though. Either way it's a stalemate at this point, to be broken when some townie gets bored and moves away from their current position, which will either win or lose the game.

[mhsmith0]

Gg all! Dead thread locked and public. Thanks for playing/observing!